Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FRANCINE-24
in United States, Mexico

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 121450 CCA
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Francine Discussion Number 16...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

Corrected Frances to Francine in the first paragraph

Francine has continued to weaken this morning as the center moves
across central Mississippi. Surface observations indicate that the
central pressure has risen to near 996 mb, with winds of 25-30 kt
observed about 80 n mi east and northeast of the center. Based on
these data, the initial intensity is decreased to 30 kt. The
surface observations and satellite imagery also suggest that
Francine is merging with a frontal zone, and it is expected to
become a post-tropical low later today or tonight. It should be
noted that while the forecast shows the surface cyclone dissipating
by 48 h, the remnants of the circulation above the surface will
persist beyond that time and continue the heavy rainfall threat.

The initial motion is now 360/12. A continued northward to
north-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is
expected before dissipation, bringing Francine or its remnants
across northern Mississippi into northeastern Arkansas.

This is the last Tropical Cyclone Discussion issued by the
National Hurricane Center on this system. Future information on
this system can be found in discussions issued by the Weather
Prediction Center beginning at 400 PM CDT, under AWIPS header
TCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KWNH, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov.

Rainfall forecasts for the United States can always be found at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
and outlooks of flash flood risks can be found at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Elevated water levels and high surf along portions of the
Louisiana and Mississippi coasts should subside today. Until this
occurs, residents in the affected area should continue to follow
advice given by local officials.

2. Francine will continue to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of
flash and urban flooding, along with river flooding, across portions
of the Lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley and the Southeast.
Considerable flash and urban flooding is possible through tonight
over portions of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, expanding into
Georgia and middle Tennessee Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 32.5N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 13/0000Z 34.3N 90.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 13/1200Z 35.3N 90.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 14/0000Z 35.9N 90.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 121439
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Francine Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

Frances has continued to weaken this morning as the center moves
across central Mississippi. Surface observations indicate that the
central pressure has risen to near 996 mb, with winds of 25-30 kt
observed about 80 n mi east and northeast of the center. Based on
these data, the initial intensity is decreased to 30 kt. The
surface observations and satellite imagery also suggest that
Francine is merging with a frontal zone, and it is expected to
become a post-tropical low later today or tonight. It should be
noted that while the forecast shows the surface cyclone dissipating
by 48 h, the remnants of the circulation above the surface will
persist beyond that time and continue the heavy rainfall threat.

The initial motion is now 360/12. A continued northward to
north-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is
expected before dissipation, bringing Francine or its remnants
across northern Mississippi into northeastern Arkansas.

This is the last Tropical Cyclone Discussion issued by the
National Hurricane Center on this system. Future information on
this system can be found in discussions issued by the Weather
Prediction Center beginning at 400 PM CDT, under AWIPS header
TCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KWNH, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov.

Rainfall forecasts for the United States can always be found at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
and outlooks of flash flood risks can be found at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Elevated water levels and high surf along portions of the
Louisiana and Mississippi coasts should subside today. Until this
occurs, residents in the affected area should continue to follow
advice given by local officials.

2. Francine will continue to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of
flash and urban flooding, along with river flooding, across portions
of the Lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley and the Southeast.
Considerable flash and urban flooding is possible through tonight
over portions of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, expanding into
Georgia and middle Tennessee Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 32.5N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 13/0000Z 34.3N 90.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 13/1200Z 35.3N 90.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 14/0000Z 35.9N 90.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 121438
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANCINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062024
1500 UTC THU SEP 12 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 90.1W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 90.1W AT 12/1500Z...INLAND
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 90.1W...INLAND

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 34.3N 90.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 35.3N 90.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 35.9N 90.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.5N 90.1W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER BEGINNING AT 2100 UTC, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCMAT1, WMO
HEADER WTNT21 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV.

RAINFALL FORECASTS FOR THE UNITED STATES CAN ALWAYS BE FOUND AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML
AND OUTLOOKS OF FLASH FLOOD RISKS CAN BE FOUND AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/EXCESSIVE_RAINFALL_OUTLOOK_ERO.PHP
.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 121438
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Francine Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

...FRANCINE NOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
...HEAVY RAINFALL STILL SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI,
ALABAMA, AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.5N 90.1W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NNE OF JACKSON MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All Storm Surge Warnings have been discontinued.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Francine was located near latitude 32.5 North, longitude 90.1 West.
The depression is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h),
and this general motion is expected to continue with a decrease in
forward speed through Friday. On the forecast track, the center of
Francine will move over central and northern portions of
Mississippi this afternoon and tonight and move into northeastern
Arkansas by Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast, and Francine is expected to become a
post-tropical cyclone later today or tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations
from the Jackson area is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Francine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC.

WIND: Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are possible for the next
few hours over portions of central Mississippi and western Alabama.

RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to
8 inches across portions of Mississippi, eastern Arkansas,
Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. Localized
amounts of 12 inches are possible over portions of Alabama, the
Florida Panhandle, and Georgia. This rainfall could lead to
considerable flash and urban flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero. For a list of
rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see
the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS41
KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html.

STORM SURGE: Water levels remain elevated along the Gulf coast
between eastern Louisiana and Alabama but will recede through this
afternoon.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today across the Florida
Panhandle, southern and central Alabama, and southwest Georgia.

SURF: Swells generated by Francine should subside along the
northern Gulf coast through today. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Future information on this system can be
found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center
beginning at 400 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header
WTNT31 KWNH, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov.

Rainfall forecasts for the United States can always be found at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
and outlooks of flash flood risks can be found at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 121142
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Francine Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
700 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

...FRANCINE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...
...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING ACROSS MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA, AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.9N 90.1W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM S OF JACKSON MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued between Grand Isle,
Louisiana and the mouth of the Pearl River

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the coasts of
Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, including Lake Maurepas, Lake
Pontchartrain, and metropolitan New Orleans.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* The mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama Border
* Lake Maurepas
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline.

For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Francine was located near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 90.1 West.
Francine is moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19
km/h). A turn toward the north is expected during the next day or
so, with some decrease in forward speed. On the forecast track, the
center of Francine will move over central and northern portions of
Mississippi through early Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Francine is
expected to become a post-tropical cyclone later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Francine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC.

WIND: Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are possible for the next
several hours over portions of southeastern Louisiana, southeastern
and central Mississippi, and southwestern Alabama.

RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 3 to
6 inches across portions of Mississippi, eastern Arkansas,
Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle. Localized
amounts up to 10 inches are possible within rain bands over portions
of central and northern Alabama and over the Florida Panhandle. This
rainfall could lead to locally considerable flash and urban
flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero. For a list of
rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see
the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS41
KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Pearl River, LA to MS/AL Border...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National
Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today, mainly this morning
and afternoon from the Florida Panhandle to north-central Alabama.

SURF: Swells generated by Francine will continue to affect much of
the northern Gulf coast through today. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 120848
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Francine Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
400 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

Francine has continued to rapidly weaken overnight while moving
inland across eastern Louisiana. The system is highly sheared due to
its interaction with a mid- to upper-level trough to the northwest.
Francine is quickly losing tropical characteristics, and surface
observations indicate the surface center is located south and west
of the heaviest rainfall. Tropical storm conditions, especially in
gusts, continue over portions of the northern Gulf Coast within the
warning area. Earlier scatterometer data showed 35-40 kt offshore
winds, and the initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt.

The storm has slowed down a bit and is now moving northeastward at
about 10 kt. Francine is expected to turn north-northeastward and
northward today, bringing the center across central and northern
Mississippi. Continued weakening is expected, and tropical storm
conditions along the coasts of southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi,
and Alabama are likely to subside this morning as the low weakens
and moves further inland. Given its degraded satellite structure,
Francine is likely to degenerate to a post-tropical low as early as
this morning, with dissipation forecast to occur by 48 h.

An experimental cone graphic that includes inland Hurricane and
Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings in the U.S. is now available on
the NHC website. Due to the time needed to compile the inland watch
and warning information, the experimental cone graphic will not be
available as quickly as the operational cone. Once it is available,
the experimental cone graphic can be found from a red weblink above
the operational cone graphic at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents. Users are
encouraged to take the experimental product survey found below the
experimental cone.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge during the next
several hours for portions of the eastern Louisiana and Mississippi
coastlines, where a Storm Surge Warning remains in effect. Residents
in the warning area should continue to follow advice given by local
officials.

2. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for coastal portions
of southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, where tropical
storm conditions could continue for the next few hours.

3. Francine will continue to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of
flash and urban flooding, along with river flooding, across portions
of the Lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley, and the
Southeast. Locally considerable flash and urban flooding is possible
today and tonight over portions of central and northern Alabama and
the Florida Panhandle.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 30.9N 90.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 32.6N 89.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 13/0600Z 34.4N 90.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 13/1800Z 35.1N 90.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 120847
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Francine Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
400 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

...FRANCINE MOVING FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING ACROSS MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA, AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.9N 90.1W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM N OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning and Storm Surge Warning west of Grand
Isle, Louisiana has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Isle, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama Border
* Lake Maurepas
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Isle, Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New
Orleans

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
beginning shortly for the indicated locations.

For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Francine was
located near latitude 30.9 North, longitude 90.1 West. Francine is
moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward
the north-northeast and north is expected during the next day or
so, with some decrease in forward speed. On the forecast track, the
center of Francine will move over central and northern portions of
Mississippi through early Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Continued weakening is forecast, and Francine is expected to become
a tropical depression this morning and degenerate to a post-tropical
cyclone today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center. A National Ocean Service weather station at
Southwest Pass, Louisiana recently reported a wind gust of 39 mph
(63 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Francine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected
to continue in portions of the warning area for the next few hours.

RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 3 to
6 inches across portions of Mississippi, eastern Arkansas,
Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle. Localized
amounts up to 10 inches are possible within rain bands over portions
of central and northern Alabama and over the Florida Panhandle. This
rainfall could lead to locally considerable flash and urban
flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero. For a list of
rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see
the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS41
KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Pearl River, LA to Ocean Springs, MS...4-6 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...4-6 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL Border...3-5 ft
Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected
to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However,
there may be some overtopping of local levees. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today, mainly in the
morning and afternoon from the Florida Panhandle to north-central
Alabama.

SURF: Swells generated by Francine will continue to affect much of
the northern Gulf coast through today. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 120845
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062024
0900 UTC THU SEP 12 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 90.1W AT 12/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 130SE 60SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 90.1W AT 12/0900Z
AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 90.3W

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 32.6N 89.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 34.4N 90.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 35.1N 90.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.9N 90.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 12/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 120552
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Francine Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
100 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

...CENTER OF FRANCINE PASSING NORTHWEST OF NEW ORLEANS...
...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.2N 90.3W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM NW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning and Storm Surge Warning west of Morgan
City, Louisiana has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama Border
* Vermilion Bay
* Lake Maurepas
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City, Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New
Orleans

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
beginning shortly for the indicated locations.

For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Francine was
located near latitude 30.2 North, longitude 90.3 West. Francine is
moving toward the northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A slower
north-northeastward to northward motion is expected during the next
couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Continued rapid weakening is forecast, and Francine is expected to
become a tropical depression later today and a post-tropical cyclone
by tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center. The New Orleans Lakefront Airport recently reported
sustained winds of 37 mph (60 km/h) and a gust of 47 mph (76 km/h).
The Bay Waveland Yacht Club in Mississippi recently reported
sustained winds of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a gust of 46 mph (74 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations
is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Francine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in
portions of the warning area through early this morning.

RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to
8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches across southeastern
Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama, and the Florida
Panhandle through tonight. This rainfall could lead to considerable
flash, urban, and river flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero. For a list of
rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see
the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS41
KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Pearl River, LA to Ocean Springs, MS...4-6 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...4-6 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL Border...3-5 ft
Morgan City, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...3-5 ft
Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected
to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However,
there may be some overtopping of local levees. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible during the next few hours
across parts of southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern
Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. The tornado risk will move into
additional parts of Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the Florida
Panhandle today.

SURF: Swells generated by Francine are affecting much of the
northern Gulf Coast, likely causing life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 120248
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Francine Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

Francine made landfall in Terrebonne Parish in southern Louisiana
around 5 pm CDT (2200 UTC) as a Category 2 hurricane. Maximum winds
at landfall were estimated to be around 85 kt based on data
collected by the Air Force Hurricane Hunters. Since then, Francine
has been rapidly weakening, and the maximum winds are now estimated
to be near 60 kt, making it a tropical storm. The convective
pattern has become quite asymmetric with nearly all of the heavy
rains confined to the north of the center. Some of the heaviest
rainfall and tropical-storm-force winds are occurring in
metropolitan New Orleans, where there have been gusts to near 60 kt.

The storm continues to move northeastward at a relatively quick 14
kt. However, a slow down is expected as the system weakens and
merges with a mid- to upper-level trough to its northwest, which
could cause flooding over portions of the southern U.S. As Francine
continues inland, the storm will spin down and likely become a
tropical depression by late Thursday and a post-tropical cyclone
Thursday night or early Friday.

An experimental cone graphic that includes inland Hurricane and
Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings in the U.S. is now available on
the NHC website. Due to the time needed to compile the inland watch
and warning information, the experimental cone graphic will not be
available as quickly as the operational cone. Once it is available,
the experimental cone graphic can be found from a red weblink above
the operational cone graphic at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents. Users are
encouraged to take the experimental product survey found below the
experimental cone.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge during the
next several hours for portions of the Louisiana and Mississippi
coastlines, where a Storm Surge Warning remains in effect.
Residents in the warning area should continue to follow advice
given by local officials.

2. Damaging winds are expected to continue in portions of southern
Louisiana overnight. Remain in a safe location until conditions
improve.

3. Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of
considerable flash and urban flooding, along with river flooding,
across southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama,
and the Florida Panhandle through Thursday night. Flash and urban
flooding is probable across the Lower Tennessee Valley and Lower
Mississippi Valley into Friday morning.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 30.2N 90.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
12H 12/1200Z 32.0N 89.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
24H 13/0000Z 34.4N 89.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 13/1200Z 35.4N 90.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 14/0000Z 35.9N 90.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 120247
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062024
0300 UTC THU SEP 12 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 90.6W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 70SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 120SE 70SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 150SE 90SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 90.6W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 90.9W

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 32.0N 89.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 34.4N 89.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 35.4N 90.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 35.9N 90.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.2N 90.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 12/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 120247
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Francine Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

...HEAVY RAINS AND WIND GUSTS TO HURRICANE-FORCE OCCURRING IN
METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.2N 90.6W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM WNW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning from Intracoastal City to Grand Isle has been
downgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning. All Hurricane Watches have
been discontinued. Hurricane and tropical storm warnings west of
Intracoastal City have been discontinued.

The Storm Surge Warning west of Avery Island has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Avery Island Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama
Border
* Vermilion Bay
* Lake Maurepas
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City, Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New
Orleans

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
beginning shortly for the indicated locations.

For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Francine was
located near latitude 30.2 North, longitude 90.6 West. Francine is
moving toward the northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A slower
north-northeastward motion is expected during the next couple of
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid weakening is forecast, and Francine is expected to
become a tropical depression by late Thursday and a post-tropical
cyclone Thursday night or early Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center. Gusts to hurricane-force have been occurring in
the New Orleans area.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Francine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in
portions of the warning area through early Thursday.

RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to
8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches across southeastern
Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama, and the Florida
Panhandle through Thursday night. This rainfall could lead to
considerable flash, urban and river flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero. For a list of
rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see
the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS41
KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Burns Point, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...5-8 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...4-6 ft
Mouth of the Pearl River, LA to Ocean Springs, MS...4-6 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...4-6 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL Border...3-5 ft
Intracoastal City, LA to Burns Point, LA...3-5 ft
Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected
to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However,
there may be some overtopping of local levees. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible overnight across
parts of southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern
Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. On Thursday, the tornado risk
will move into additional parts of Alabama, southwest Georgia and
the Florida Panhandle.

SURF: Swells generated by Francine are affecting much of the
northern Gulf Coast, likely causing life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT61 KNHC 120051
TCUAT1

Hurricane Francine Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
800 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

...HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS SPREADING ACROSS NEW ORLEANS...
...800 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE...

Francine continues to move inland over southern Louisiana.
Life-threatening storm surge, heavy rains, and hurricane-force winds
are affecting portions of the area. Stay inside and away
from windows and have multiple ways to receive warnings and updates.

Heavy rains and gusty winds are spreading across metropolitan
New Orleans. An observation in Lakefront Airport has recently
reported sustained winds of 37 mph (59 km/h) with a gust to 49 mph
(80 km/h). Conditions are expected to continue to deteriorate
during the next couple of hours.

This is the last hourly position update on Francine.


SUMMARY OF 800 PM CDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 90.8W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WSW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Bucci


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 112344
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Francine Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
700 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND HEAVY
RAINS CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 90.9W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM ESE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM WSW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama
Border
* Vermilion Bay
* Lake Maurepas
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Louisiana coast from Vermilion/Cameron Line eastward to
Grand Isle

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New
Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Louisiana coast from Cameron to the Vermilion/Cameron Line
* East of Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New
Orleans

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
beginning shortly for the indicated locations.

For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Francine was
located inland near latitude 29.6 North, longitude 90.9 West.
Francine is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). This
general motion should continue, taking the system across
southeastern Louisiana tonight and across Mississippi Thursday
and Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid weakening is expected, and the system is forecast
to become post-tropical Thursday night or Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Francine can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header
WTNT41 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring in portions of the
hurricane warning area, with tropical storm conditions spreading
inland. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch
area tonight.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along
the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama tonight.

RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to
8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches across southeastern
Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama and the Florida
Panhandle through Thursday night. This rainfall could lead to
considerable flash, urban and river flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero. For a list of
rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see
the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS41
KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Burns Point, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...5-10 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...4-7 ft
Mouth of the Pearl River, LA to Ocean Springs, MS...4-6 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...4-6 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL Border...3-5 ft
Intracoastal City, LA to Burns Point, LA...3-5 ft
Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected
to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However,
there may be some overtopping of local levees. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight across
parts of southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern
Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. On Thursday, the tornado risk
will move into additional parts of Alabama, southwest Georgia and
the Florida Panhandle.

SURF: Swells generated by Francine are affecting much of the
northern Gulf Coast, likely causing life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT61 KNHC 112256
TCUAT1

Hurricane Francine Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
600 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND HEAVY
RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...
...600 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE...

The eye of Francine is located just inland over southern Louisiana.
Life-threatening storm surge, heavy rains, and hurricane-force
winds continue to affect portions of the area. Stay inside and away
from windows and have multiple ways to receive warnings and updates.

A Weatherflow observation in Dulac recently reported a sustained
wind of 68 mph (109 km/h) and a peak gust of 97 mph (156 km/h). A
gust to 59 mph (94 km/h) was recently measured in Patterson.

Another position update will be provided at 800 PM CDT (0100 UTC)
after the issuance of the intermediate public advisory.

SUMMARY OF 600 PM CDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 91.0W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WSW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Bucci


Original Message :

WTNT61 KNHC 112157
TCUAT1

Hurricane Francine Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
500 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

...FRANCINE MAKES LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...
...500 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE...

Francine has made landfall in southern Louisiana in the Parish of
Terrebonne, about 30 miles south-southwest of Morgan City, as a
Category 2 hurricane. Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be
near 100 mph (155 km/h).

A NOS station located on Eugene Island recently reported a peak gust
of 105 mph (169 km/h). The minimum pressure measured at that
location was 976 mb (28.82 inches).

Heavy rains and hurricane-force winds are spreading inland across
southern Louisiana. Now is the time to stay inside and away from
windows. Have multiple ways to receive warnings and updates.

Another position update will be provided at 600 PM CDT (2300 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 500 PM CDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 91.3W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM WSW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Bucci


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 112056
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Francine Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
400 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

...FRANCINE BECOMES A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE AS THE EYE APPROACHES
THE LOUISIANA COAST...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING
ONTO THE LOUISIANA COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.2N 91.5W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WSW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning is discontinued west of the
Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama
Border
* Vermilion Bay
* Lake Maurepas
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Louisiana coast from Vermilion/Cameron Line eastward to
Grand Isle

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New
Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Louisiana coast from Cameron to the Vermilion/Cameron Line
* East of Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New
Orleans

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
beginning shortly for the indicated locations.

For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Francine was
located near latitude 29.2 North, longitude 91.5 West. Francine is
moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). This general
motion should continue through this afternoon, and Francine is
anticipated to make landfall in Louisiana within the warning area
in the next few hours. After landfall, the center is expected to
cross southeastern Louisiana tonight, then move northward across
Mississippi on Thursday and Thursday night.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 100 mph
(155 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is
expected before landfall. Francine is expected to rapidly weaken
after landfall, and the system is forecast to become post-tropical
Thursday night or Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km). An oil platform southeast of the center recently
reported sustained winds of 79 mph (127 km/h) and a peak gust of
93 mph (150 km/h) at an elevation of 82 ft (25 m). The National
Ocean Service station at Eugene Island, Louisiana, recently
reported sustained winds of 76 mph (122 km/h) and a wind gust of
99 mph (159 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 972 mb (28.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Francine can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header
WTNT41 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are spreading into the hurricane
warning area, with tropical storm conditions already ongoing.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area this
evening and tonight.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along
the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama this evening and
tonight.

RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to
8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches across southeastern
Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama and the Florida
Panhandle through Thursday night. This rainfall could lead to
considerable flash, urban and river flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero. For a list of
rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see
the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS41
KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Burns Point, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...5-10 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...4-7 ft
Mouth of the Pearl River, LA to Ocean Springs, MS...4-6 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...4-6 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL Border...3-5 ft
Intracoastal City, LA to Burns Point, LA...3-5 ft
Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected
to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However,
there may be some overtopping of local levees. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight across
parts of southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern
Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. On Thursday, the tornado risk
will move into additional parts of Alabama, southwest Georgia and
the Florida Panhandle.

SURF: Swells generated by Francine are affecting much of the
northern and northwestern Gulf Coast, likely causing
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 112056
TCDAT1

Hurricane Francine Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
400 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

Satellite, radar, and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
data indicate that not only has Francine stayed well organized
during the past six hours despite increasing westerly shear, it has
strengthened a little. The latest reports from the aircraft showed
the central pressure has fallen to near 972 mb with maximum 700
mb flight-level winds of 99 kt to the southeast of the center.
Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to 85 kt.

The initial motion is now 045/15 kt. The flow between a mid- to
upper-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico and a mid- to upper-level
trough over Texas should steer Francine northeastward for the next
12 h or so. The hurricane is expected to make landfall along the
Louisiana coast in the next few hours and move across southeastern
Louisiana tonight. After that, a turn toward the north on the east
side of the trough will bring the center of Francine across
southwestern and central Mississippi on Thursday. This should be
followed by a northward motion with a decrease in forward speed
until the cyclone dissipates. The new track guidance is a little
faster than for the previous advisory, so the new forecast track is
similar to, but faster than, the previous track.

Little change in strength is expected during the final hours before
landfall. After landfall, Francine is expected to quickly weaken
while also losing tropical characteristics. Transition to an
extratropical cyclone is expected to be complete by Friday morning,
with the cyclone forecast to dissipate after 60 h.

An experimental cone graphic that includes inland Hurricane and
Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings in the U.S. is now available on
the NHC website. Due to the time needed to compile the inland watch
and warning information, the experimental cone graphic will not be
available as quickly as the operational cone. Once it is available,
the experimental cone graphic can be found from a red weblink above
the operational cone graphic at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents. Users are
encouraged to take the experimental product survey found below the
experimental cone.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge through
tonight for the Louisiana and Mississippi coastlines, where a
Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in the warning area
should continue to follow advice given by local officials.

2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected
in portions of southern Louisiana this evening and tonight, where a
Hurricane Warning is in effect. Ensure you are in a safe location
before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

3. Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of
considerable flash and urban flooding, along with river flooding,
across southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama and
the Florida Panhandle through Thursday night. Flash and urban
flooding is probable across the Lower Tennessee Valley and Lower
Mississippi Valley tonight into Friday morning.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 29.2N 91.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 30.8N 90.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
24H 12/1800Z 33.3N 90.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 13/0600Z 35.0N 90.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 13/1800Z 35.7N 90.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 14/0600Z 36.3N 90.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 112055
TCMAT1

HURRICANE FRANCINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062024
2100 UTC WED SEP 11 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 91.5W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB
EYE DIAMETER 40 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 35SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 120SE 70SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 180SE 120SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 91.5W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 92.1W

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 30.8N 90.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 120SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 33.3N 90.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 35.0N 90.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 35.7N 90.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 36.3N 90.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.2N 91.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 12/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT61 KNHC 111956
TCUAT1

Hurricane Francine Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
300 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

...FRANCINE'S EYEWALL NEARING SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...
...300 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE...

Hurricane-force winds in the northern eyewall of Francine are
nearing the coast of southern Louisiana. Now is the time to stay
inside and away from windows. Have multiple ways to receive
warnings and updates.

An oil platform east of the center recently reported sustained
winds of 74 mph (119 km/h) and a peak gust of 92 mph (148 km/h) at
an elevation of 102 ft (31 m).

A NOS station located on Eugene Island recently reported sustained
winds of 54 mph (87 km/h) and a peak gust of 70 mph (113 km/h).

Another position update will be provided at 500 PM CDT (2200 UTC)
following the issuance of the full advisory package at 400 PM CDT
(2100 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 300 PM CDT...2000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 91.5W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...27 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Bucci


Original Message :

WTNT61 KNHC 111858
TCUAT1

Hurricane Francine Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
200 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING INLAND
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...
...200 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE...

Tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rainfall are spreading inland
across southern Louisiana, and conditions will continue to
deteriorate over the next several hours. Hurricane force-winds are
located just offshore. Now is the time to stay inside and away from
windows. Have multiple ways to receive warnings and updates.

An oil platform southeast of the center recently reported sustained
winds of 92 mph (148 km/h) and a peak gust of 112 mph (180 km/h) at
an elevation of 102 ft (31 m).

A NOS station located on Eugene Island recently reported reported
sustained winds of 48 mph (78 km/h) and a peak gust of 53 mph
(61 km/h).

Another position update will be provided at 300 PM CDT (2000 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 200 PM CDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 91.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...27 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 111744
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Francine Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
100 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS NOW REACHING THE LOUISIANA COAST...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN IN LOUISIANA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 92.1W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the
southwestern coast of Louisiana west of Cameron.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Cameron Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama Border
* Vermilion Bay
* Lake Maurepas
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Louisiana coast from Vermilion/Cameron Line eastward to
Grand Isle

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New
Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Louisiana coast from Cameron to the Vermilion/Cameron Line
* East of Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New
Orleans

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
beginning shortly for the indicated locations.

For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area in the next few hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be completed.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12
to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Francine was
located near latitude 28.6 North, longitude 92.1 West. Francine is
moving toward the northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). This general
motion should continue through this afternoon, and Francine is
anticipated to make landfall in Louisiana within the warning area
later this afternoon or this evening. After landfall, the center is
expected to cross southeastern Louisiana tonight, then move
northward across Mississippi on Thursday and Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected before landfall.
Francine is expected to rapidly weaken after landfall, and the
system is forecast to become post-tropical on Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km). An oil platform east of the center recently
reported sustained winds of 83 mph (134 km/h) and a peak gust of
102 mph (164 km/h) at an elevation of 102 ft (31 m).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).
The oil platform with the winds reported above also reported a
pressure of 983.3 mb (29.04 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Francine can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header
WTNT41 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in the next few hours, with tropical storm conditions
ongoing. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch
area later this afternoon and tonight.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along
the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama this afternoon and
tonight.

RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to
8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches across southeastern
Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama and the Florida
Panhandle through Thursday night. This rainfall could lead to
considerable flash, urban and river flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero.

For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated
this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS1 with the
WMO header ACUS41 KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Intracoastal City, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...5-10 ft
Vermilion Bay...5-10 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...4-7 ft
Mouth of the Pearl River, LA to Ocean Springs, MS...4-6 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...4-6 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL Border...3-5 ft
Cameron, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...3-5 ft
Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected
to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However,
there may be some overtopping of local levees. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this afternoon and tonight
across parts of southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern
Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.

SURF: Swells generated by Francine are affecting much of the
northern and northwestern Gulf Coast, likely causing
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT61 KNHC 111656
TCUAT1

Hurricane Francine Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
1200 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

...CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO DETERIORATE IN SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...
...1200 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE...

Rainbands of Francine continue to move onshore and spread
inland into southern Louisiana. Tropical-storm-force winds are just
offshore, and conditions will continue to deteriorate throughout the
afternoon. Ensure you are in a safe location before the onset of
these strong winds or possible flooding, and have multiple ways to
receive warnings.

An oil platform north of the center recently reported sustained
winds of 85 mph (137 km/h) and a gust of 100 mph (161 km/h)
at an elevation of 98 ft (30 m).

SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 92.3W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM SW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT61 KNHC 111556
TCUAT1

Hurricane Francine Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
1100 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN IN LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON...
...1100 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE...

Outer rainbands are starting to move onshore of the coast of
southern Louisiana. These conditions will continue to deteriorate
over the next couple of hours. Ensure you are in a safe location
before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

An oil platform north of the center recently reported sustained
winds of 85 mph (137 km/h) and a gust of 101 mph (163 km/h)
at an elevation of 98 ft (30 m).

Another position update will be provided at 1200 PM CDT (1700 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM CDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 92.6W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 111445
TCDAT1

Hurricane Francine Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Francine has changed little in intensity during the
last several hours. Flight-level winds from the aircraft
and a northwest eyewall dropsonde suggest that the maximum
sustained surface winds are near 80 kt, and the central pressure is
near 976 mb. The aircraft have been reporting a large elliptical
eye open to the south, which matches the depiction of the eye in
WSR-88D Doppler radar data from Lake Charles. Satellite imagery
does show that the cloud pattern is becoming elongated from
northeast to southwest due to the increasing effects of
southwesterly shear.

The initial motion is now 040/10 kt. A slightly faster northeastward
motion is forecast this afternoon and tonight as the hurricane
becomes steered by a mid- to upper-level trough over Texas. This
will bring the core of Francine toward the Louisiana coast, with
landfall expected within the hurricane warning area late this
afternoon or evening. After landfall, a gradual turn toward the
north will bring the center of Francine across southeastern
Louisiana and southwestern and central Mississippi on Thursday.
After that, a northward motion with a decrease in forward speed is
expected until the cyclone dissipates. There is little change to
either the track guidance or the track forecast from the previous
advisory.

Due to the increasing shear and the possibility that drier air will
wrap around the south side of the center, little change in strength
is expected before landfall. However, Francine will continue to
pose a significant risk of life-threatening storm surge and damaging
winds to locations in the warning areas. Once inland, Francine is
expected to quickly weaken while also losing tropical
characteristics. Transition to an extratropical cyclone is expected
to be complete by Friday morning.

An experimental cone graphic that includes inland Hurricane and
Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings in the U.S. is now available on
the NHC website. Due to the time needed to compile the inland watch
and warning information, the experimental cone graphic will not be
available as quickly as the operational cone. Once it is available,
the experimental cone graphic can be found from a red weblink above
the operational cone graphic at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents. Users are
encouraged to take the experimental product survey found below the
experimental cone.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge today for the
Louisiana and Mississippi coastlines, where a Storm Surge Warning is
in effect. Residents in the warning area should continue to follow
advice given by local officials.

2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected
in portions of southern Louisiana later today, where a Hurricane
Warning is in effect. Ensure you are in a safe location before the
onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

3. Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of
considerable flash and urban flooding, along with river flooding,
across southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama and
the Florida Panhandle through Thursday night. Flash and urban
flooding is probable across the Lower Tennessee Valley and Lower
Mississippi Valley tonight into Friday morning.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 28.0N 92.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 29.5N 91.5W 80 KT 90 MPH...NEAR COAST
24H 12/1200Z 31.8N 90.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 13/0000Z 34.1N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 13/1200Z 35.2N 90.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 14/0000Z 35.7N 90.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 111444
TCMAT1

HURRICANE FRANCINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062024
1500 UTC WED SEP 11 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 92.7W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
EYE DIAMETER 40 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 35SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 100SE 60SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 90SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 92.7W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 93.2W

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 29.5N 91.5W...NEAR COAST
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 31.8N 90.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 110SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 34.1N 90.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 35.2N 90.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 35.7N 90.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.0N 92.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 11/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 111444
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Francine Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

...FRANCINE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE LOUISIANA COAST...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN IN LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 92.7W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Watch for the Alabama coast, including Mobile bay,
has been changed to a Coastal Flood Warning. Please refer to
products from local National Weather Service Offices for additional
information.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Cameron Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama Border
* Vermilion Bay
* Lake Maurepas
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Louisiana coast from Vermilion/Cameron Line eastward to
Grand Isle

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New
Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Louisiana coast east of Sabine Pass to Vermilion/Cameron Line
* East of Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New
Orleans

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
beginning this afternoon for the indicated locations.

For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Francine was
located near latitude 28.0 North, longitude 92.7 West. Francine is
moving toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A faster
northeastward motion is expected this afternoon, and Francine is
anticipated to make landfall in Louisiana within the warning area
late this afternoon or this evening. After landfall, the center is
expected to cross southeastern Louisiana tonight, then move
northward across Mississippi on Thursday and Thursday night.

Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before
landfall. Francine is expected to rapidly weaken after landfall, and
the system is forecast to become post-tropical on Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km). An oil platform north of the center recently reported
sustained winds of 87 mph (141 km/h) and a peak gust of 105 mph
(169 km/h) at an elevation of 98 ft (30 m).

The minimum central pressure based on the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 976 mb (28.82 inches). An oil platform located
east of the center recently reported a pressure of 978.7 mb (28.90
inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Francine can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header
WTNT41 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area this afternoon and tonight, with tropical storm
conditions arriving in the warning area during the next several
hours. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch
area this afternoon and tonight.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the
coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama this afternoon and
tonight.

RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to
8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches across southeastern
Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama and the Florida
Panhandle through Thursday night. This rainfall could lead to
considerable flash, urban and river flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero. For a list of
rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see
the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS41
KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Intracoastal City, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...5-10 ft
Vermilion Bay...5-10 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...4-7 ft
Mouth of the Pearl River, LA to Ocean Springs, MS...4-6 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...4-6 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL Border...3-5 ft
Cameron, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...3-5 ft
Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected
to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However,
there may be some overtopping of local levees. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across
parts of southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern
Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.

SURF: Swells generated by Francine are affecting much of the
northern and northwestern Gulf Coast, likely causing
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 111143
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Francine Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
700 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING FRANCINE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN IN LOUISIANA LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 93.3W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM ENE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Cameron Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama Border
* Vermilion Bay
* Lake Maurepas
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Louisiana coast from Vermilion/Cameron Line eastward to
Grand Isle

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama Border to the Alabama/Florida Border
* Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New
Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Louisiana coast east of Sabine Pass to Vermilion/Cameron Line
* East of Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New
Orleans

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. A Storm Surge
Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation,
from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated
locations during the next 48 hours.

For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Francine was
located near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 93.3 West. Francine is
moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A faster
northeastward motion is expected today, and Francine is anticipated
to make landfall in Louisiana within the warning area this afternoon
or evening. After landfall, the center is expected to move northward
across Mississippi on Thursday and Thursday night.

Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible this
morning. Francine is expected to weaken quickly after it moves
inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 976 mb (28.82 inches). An oil
platform near the center recently reported a pressure of 977.7 mb
(28.87 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Francine can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header
WTNT41 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area this afternoon, with tropical storm conditions arriving
in the warning area this morning. Hurricane conditions are possible
in the hurricane watch area this afternoon and tonight.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the
coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama today and tonight.

RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4
to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches across southeastern
Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama, and the Florida
Panhandle through Thursday night. This rainfall could lead to
considerable flash and urban flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Intracoastal City, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...5-10 ft
Vermilion Bay...5-10 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...4-7 ft
Mouth of the Pearl River, LA to Ocean Springs, MS...4-6 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...4-6 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL Border...3-5 ft
Cameron, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...3-5 ft
Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected
to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However,
there may be some overtopping of local levees. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across
parts of southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern
Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.

SURF: Swells generated by Francine are affecting much of the
northern and northwestern Gulf Coast, likely causing
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 110855
TCDAT1

Hurricane Francine Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
400 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

As expected, Francine has strengthened and become better organized
overnight. Radar data and earlier reports from the Air Force
Hurricane Hunters indicate the eyewall is better defined, with deep
convection wrapping around the center of the hurricane. The eyewall
has contracted a bit from earlier, although it was open to the south
on the last fix and in more recent GMI passive microwave images.
The microwave data also showed some northeastward vortex tilt with
height, a sign that Francine is experiencing some effects of
southwesterly shear. Based on the earlier peak 700-mb flight-level
winds of 89 kt, the initial intensity is set at 80 kt, with a
minimum pressure of 977 mb based on aircraft data. Air Force and
NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft are scheduled to investigate Francine
again this morning.

The hurricane is moving northeastward at 035/9 kt. A slightly faster
northeastward motion is forecast today and tonight as the hurricane
is steered by a mid- to upper-level trough over Texas. This will
bring the core of Francine toward the Louisiana coast today, with
landfall expected within the hurricane warning area late this
afternoon or evening. After landfall, a gradual turn toward the
north will bring the center of Francine across eastern Louisiana and
Mississippi. The track guidance is fairly tightly clustered, and the
latest NHC forecast lies near the center of the guidance envelope
and very close to the consensus aids.

The structure of Francine could allow for some additional short-term
strengthening this morning over the very warm Gulf waters, and this
is reflected in the updated NHC forecast. Southwesterly shear is
expected to increase over the hurricane later today, and interaction
with an upper trough should cause drier air to wrap around the
southern portion of Francine as it nears the coast. Thus, the
hurricane is not expected to continue strengthening through
landfall, but will continue to pose a significant risk of
life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds to locations in the
warning areas. Once inland, Francine is expected to rapidly weaken,
quickly lose tropical characteristics, and transition to an
extratropical cyclone over northern Mississippi.

An experimental cone graphic that includes inland Hurricane and
Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings in the U.S. is now available on
the NHC website. Due to the time needed to compile the inland watch
and warning information, the experimental cone graphic will not be
available as quickly as the operational cone. Once it is available,
the experimental cone graphic can be found from a red weblink above
the operational cone graphic at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents. Users are
encouraged to take the experimental product survey found below the
experimental cone.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge today for the
Louisiana and Mississippi coastlines, where a Storm Surge Warning is
in effect. Residents in the warning area should follow advice,
including evacuation orders, given by local officials.

2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected
in portions of southern Louisiana later today, where a Hurricane
Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are expected to
begin within this area later this morning, and preparations to
protect life and property should be complete.

3. Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of
considerable flash and urban flooding across southeastern Louisiana,
Mississippi, far southern Alabama and northern Florida through
Thursday night. Flash and urban flooding is probable across the
Lower Tennessee Valley and Lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday night
into Friday morning.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 27.0N 93.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 28.5N 92.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 30.6N 90.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
36H 12/1800Z 33.0N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 13/0600Z 34.7N 90.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 13/1800Z 35.3N 90.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 110854
TCMAT1

HURRICANE FRANCINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062024
0900 UTC WED SEP 11 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 93.8W AT 11/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 35SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 100SE 60SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 120SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 93.8W AT 11/0900Z
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 94.1W

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 28.5N 92.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 30.6N 90.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 90SE 30SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 33.0N 90.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 34.7N 90.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 35.3N 90.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.0N 93.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 11/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 110854
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Francine Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
400 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

...FRANCINE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE LOUISIANA COAST...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN IN LOUISIANA LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 93.8W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM ENE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Cameron Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama Border
* Vermilion Bay
* Lake Maurepas
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Louisiana coast from Vermilion/Cameron Line eastward to
Grand Isle

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama Border to the Alabama/Florida Border
* Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New
Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Louisiana coast east of Sabine Pass to Vermilion/Cameron Line
* East of Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New
Orleans

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. A Storm Surge
Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation,
from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated
locations during the next 48 hours.

For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Francine was
located near latitude 27.0 North, longitude 93.8 West. Francine is
moving toward the northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A faster
northeastward motion is expected today, and Francine is anticipated
to make landfall in Louisiana within the warning area this afternoon
or evening. After landfall, the center is expected to move northward
across Mississippi on Thursday and Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected this morning.
Francine is expected to weaken quickly after it moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Francine can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header
WTNT41 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area this afternoon, with tropical storm conditions arriving
in the warning area this morning. Hurricane conditions are possible
in the hurricane watch area this afternoon and tonight.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the
coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama today and tonight.

RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4
to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches across southeastern
Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama, and the Florida
Panhandle through Thursday night. This rainfall could lead to
considerable flash and urban flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Intracoastal City, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...5-10 ft
Vermilion Bay...5-10 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...4-7 ft
Mouth of the Pearl River, LA to Ocean Springs, MS...4-6 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...4-6 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL Border...3-5 ft
Cameron, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...3-5 ft
Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected
to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However,
there may be some overtopping of local levees. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across
parts of southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern
Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.

SURF: Swells generated by Francine are affecting much of the
northern and northwestern Gulf Coast, likely causing
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 110545
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Francine Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
100 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

...FRANCINE A LITTLE STRONGER...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN IN LOUISIANA LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 94.1W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM ENE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Cameron Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama Border
* Vermilion Bay
* Lake Maurepas
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Louisiana coast from Vermilion/Cameron Line eastward to
Grand Isle

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama Border to the Alabama/Florida Border
* Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New
Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Louisiana coast east of Sabine Pass to Vermilion/Cameron Line
* East of Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New
Orleans

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. A Storm Surge
Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation,
from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated
locations during the next 48 hours.

For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
24 to 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Francine was
located near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 94.1 West. Francine is
moving toward the northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A faster
northeastward motion is expected today, and Francine is anticipated
to make landfall in Louisiana within the warning area this
afternoon or evening. After landfall, the center is expected to
move northward into Mississippi tonight and Thursday.

Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected this morning.
Francine is expected to weaken quickly after it moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km).

The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force
Hurricane Hunters is 977 mb (28.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Francine can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header
WTNT41 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area this afternoon, with tropical storm conditions arriving
in the warning area this morning. Hurricane conditions are possible
in the hurricane watch area this afternoon and tonight.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the
coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama today and tonight.

RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4
to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches across eastern
Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama and the western
Florida Panhandle through Friday morning. This rainfall could lead
to considerable flash and urban flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Vermilion/Cameron Line, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...5-10 ft
Vermilion Bay...5-10 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...4-7 ft
Cameron, LA to Vermilion/Cameron Line, LA...3-5 ft
Pointe a la Hache, LA to MS/AL Border...3-5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected
to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However,
there may be some overtopping of local levees. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today into tonight across
parts of southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern
Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.

SURF: Swells generated by Francine are affecting much of the
northern and northwestern Gulf Coast, likely causing
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT61 KNHC 110321
TCUAT1

Hurricane Francine Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
1020 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND FRANCINE HAS STRENGTHENED...

Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that
Francine has strengthened, with maximum sustained winds near 85 mph
(140 km/h) with higher gusts.


SUMMARY OF 1020 PM CDT...0320 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 94.3W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM ENE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 110232
TCDAT1

Hurricane Francine Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024

Both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been
investigating Francine tonight, and the data they collected were the
basis for upgrading it to a hurricane a few hours ago. The
maximum 700 mb flight-level wind measured was 76 kt, which supports
an intensity of about 65 kt. The aircraft data also indicated that
the minimum pressure has fallen several millibars to 980 mb. Deep
convection has been increasing near the center, and radar images
indicate that an inner core has developed. There is still some dry
air, however, outside of the core region.

Francine is starting to move a little faster to the northeast, with
the latest initial motion estimated to be 035/9 kt. A mid- to
upper-level trough over Texas is approaching the hurricane, and that
should cause it to accelerate northeastward toward the Louisiana
coast, with landfall expected there late Wednesday afternoon or
evening. After Francine moves inland, a turn to the north-northeast
and a decrease in forward speed is predicted while it moves across
eastern Louisiana and Mississippi. The models are in good
agreement, and little change was made to the previous track
forecast.

Now that Francine has a well organized core, significant
strengthening seems likely through Wednesday morning while the
system remains over very warm waters and in low wind shear
conditions. The hurricane regional models are quite aggressive and
show Francine strengthening quickly, while the dynamical-statistical
models show much less intensification. The NHC intensity forecast
is between those solutions and continues to show Francine nearing
category 2 strength Wednesday morning. A notable increase in shear
and intrusions of dry air should end the opportunity for
strengthening just before Francine reaches the coast. Rapid
weakening is expected after the cyclone moves inland.

An experimental cone graphic that includes inland Hurricane and
Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings in the U.S. is now available on
the NHC website. Due to the time needed to compile the inland watch
and warning information, the experimental cone graphic will not be
available as quickly as the operational cone. Once it is available,
the experimental cone graphic can be found from a red weblink above
the operational cone graphic at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents. Users are
encouraged to take the experimental product survey found below the
experimental cone.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge on
Wednesday for the Louisiana and Mississippi coastlines, where a
Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in the warning area
should follow advice, including evacuation orders, given by local
officials.

2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected
in portions of southern Louisiana on Wednesday, where a Hurricane
Warning is in effect. Preparations to protect life and property
should be complete, since tropical storm conditions are expected to
begin within this area early Wednesday.

3. Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of
considerable flash and urban flooding across eastern Louisiana,
Mississippi, far southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle
through Thursday. Flash and urban flooding is probable across the
Lower Tennessee Valley and Lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday night
into Friday morning.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 26.4N 94.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 27.7N 93.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 29.7N 91.4W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND
36H 12/1200Z 32.0N 90.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 13/0000Z 34.2N 89.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 13/1200Z 35.5N 89.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 14/0000Z 36.3N 89.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 110231
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Francine Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024

...FRANCINE MOVING TOWARD THE LOUISIANA COAST...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN IN LOUISIANA ON WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 94.3W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM ENE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning from High Island to Sabine Pass has been
discontinued. The Hurricane Warning from Cameron to the
Vermilion/Cameron Line has been replaced with a Tropical Storm
Warning.

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued west of Cameron
Louisiana.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Cameron Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama Border
* Vermilion Bay
* Lake Maurepas
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Louisiana coast from Vermilion/Cameron Line eastward to
Grand Isle

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama Border to the Alabama/Florida Border
* Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New
Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Louisiana coast east of Sabine Pass to Vermilion/Cameron Line
* East of Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New
Orleans

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. A Storm Surge
Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation,
from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated
locations during the next 48 hours.

For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Francine was
located near latitude 26.4 North, longitude 94.3 West. Francine is
moving toward the northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A faster
northeastward motion is expected through Wednesday. On the forecast
track, Francine is anticipated to make landfall in Louisiana
Wednesday afternoon or evening. After landfall, the center is
expected to move northward into Mississippi Wednesday night and
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is expected through Wednesday
morning. Francine is expected to weaken quickly after it
moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force and
NOAA Hurricane Hunters is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Francine can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area Wednesday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions
arriving in the warning area Wednesday morning. Hurricane
conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area Wednesday
afternoon and Wednesday night.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along
the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama Wednesday and
Wednesday night.

RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4
to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches across eastern
Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama and the western
Florida Panhandle through Friday morning. This rainfall could lead
to considerable flash and urban flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Vermilion/Cameron Line, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...5-10 ft
Vermilion Bay...5-10 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...4-7 ft
Cameron, LA to Vermilion/Cameron Line, LA...3-5 ft
Pointe a la Hache, LA to MS/AL Border...3-5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected
to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However,
there may be some overtopping of local levees. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday into Wednesday
night across parts of southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi,
southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.

SURF: Swells generated by Francine are affecting much of the
northern and northwestern Gulf Coast. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 110231
TCMAT1

HURRICANE FRANCINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062024
0300 UTC WED SEP 11 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 94.3W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 100SE 80SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 94.3W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 94.7W

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 27.7N 93.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 110SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 29.7N 91.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 25SE 15SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 120SE 80SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 32.0N 90.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 34.2N 89.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 35.5N 89.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 36.3N 89.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.4N 94.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 11/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 102345 CCA
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Francine Intermediate Advisory Number 9A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
700 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024

...FRANCINE BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN IN LOUISIANA ON WEDNESDAY...

Corrected to add hurricane-force wind radius to the discussion
and outlook section.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 94.8W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM E OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass Texas to the Mississippi/Alabama Border
* Vermilion Bay
* Lake Maurepas
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Louisiana coast from Cameron eastward to Grand Isle

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama Border to the Alabama/Florida Border
* Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New
Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Texas and Louisiana coasts east of High Island to Cameron
* East of Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New
Orleans

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. A Storm Surge
Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation,
from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated
locations during the next 48 hours.

For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Francine was
located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 94.8 West. Francine is
moving toward the northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A faster
northeastward motion is expected tonight and Wednesday. On the
forecast track, Francine is anticipated to make landfall in
Louisiana Wednesday afternoon or evening. After landfall, the center
is expected to move northward into the Mississippi Wednesday night
and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected through
Wednesday morning. Francine is expected to weaken quickly after it
moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) east of
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km) from the center.

The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force and
NOAA Hurricane Hunters is 982 mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Francine can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area Wednesday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions
arriving in the warning area Wednesday morning. Hurricane
conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area Wednesday
afternoon and Wednesday night.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along
the coasts of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama Wednesday
and Wednesday night.

RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4
to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches across eastern
Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama and the western
Florida Panhandle through Friday morning. This rainfall could lead
to considerable flash and urban flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...5-10 ft
Vermilion Bay...5-10 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...4-7 ft
Cameron, LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA...3-5 ft
Pointe a la Hache, LA to MS/AL Border...3-5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected
to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However,
there may be some overtopping of local levees. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday into Wednesday
night across parts of southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi,
southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.

SURF: Swells generated by Francine are affecting much of
the northern and northwestern Gulf Coast. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 102330
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Francine Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
700 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024

...FRANCINE BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN IN LOUISIANA ON WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 94.8W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM E OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass Texas to the Mississippi/Alabama Border
* Vermilion Bay
* Lake Maurepas
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Louisiana coast from Cameron eastward to Grand Isle

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama Border to the Alabama/Florida Border
* Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New
Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Texas and Louisiana coasts east of High Island to Cameron
* East of Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New
Orleans

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. A Storm Surge
Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation,
from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated
locations during the next 48 hours.

For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Francine was
located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 94.8 West. Francine is
moving toward the northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A faster
northeastward motion is expected tonight and Wednesday. On the
forecast track, Francine is anticipated to make landfall in
Louisiana Wednesday afternoon or evening. After landfall, the center
is expected to move northward into the Mississippi Wednesday night
and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected through
Wednesday morning. Francine is expected to weaken quickly after it
moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force and
NOAA Hurricane Hunters is 982 mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Francine can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area Wednesday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions
arriving in the warning area Wednesday morning. Hurricane
conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area Wednesday
afternoon and Wednesday night.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along
the coasts of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama Wednesday
and Wednesday night.

RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4
to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches across eastern
Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama and the western
Florida Panhandle through Friday morning. This rainfall could lead
to considerable flash and urban flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...5-10 ft
Vermilion Bay...5-10 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...4-7 ft
Cameron, LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA...3-5 ft
Pointe a la Hache, LA to MS/AL Border...3-5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected
to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However,
there may be some overtopping of local levees. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday into Wednesday
night across parts of southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi,
southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.

SURF: Swells generated by Francine are affecting much of
the northern and northwestern Gulf Coast. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 102038
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Francine Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
400 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024

The convection associated with Francine has not changed much in
organization during the past six hours. Radar data from the
WSR-88D Doppler radar in Brownsville shows good curved banding
around the center, but the convection is having trouble persisting,
possibly due to continued dry air entrainment. Reports from an Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft prior to 18Z showed that
the central pressure had dropped to near 987 mb, and that the
maximum 700-mb flight-level winds were 63 kt. Based on these data
and satellite intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB, the initial
intensity is set at 55 kt.

The initial motion is now 035/9 kt. An approaching mid-latitude
shortwave trough over Texas should cause the storm to move
northeastward at a faster forward speed during the next 24-36 h,
and this motion should bring the center to the Louisiana coast
sometime Wednesday afternoon or evening. After that time, Francine
should turn more northward between the trough and a mid-level ridge
over the eastern United States. While there is little change to
the track forecast scenario since the last advisory, the track
guidance has again shifted to the east, most notably between
12-48 h. Based on this change, the forecast track during that
period is again nudged a little to the east. The new track lies
just to the left of the various consensus models.

Francine has about 24 h to strengthen over warm water before it
encounters strong shear near the Louisiana coast. While there
remains a possibility that dry air entrainment could continue to
reduce the intensification rate, the intensity forecast continues
to call for steady to rapid strengthening during this time based on
the otherwise favorable conditions, and the forecast peak intensity
of 80 kt is at the high end of the intensity guidance.
Intensification is expected to stop near or just before landfall,
and rapid weakening is expected after landfall. The global models
continue to show the remnants of Francine dissipating after 96 h,
and the intensity forecast again follows that scenario.

An experimental cone graphic that includes inland Hurricane and
Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings in the U.S. is now available on
the NHC website. Due to the time needed to compile the inland watch
and warning information, the experimental cone graphic will not be
available as quickly as the operational cone. Once it is available,
the experimental cone graphic can be found from a red weblink above
the operational cone graphic at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents. Users are
encouraged to take the experimental product survey found below the
experimental cone.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge for the
Louisiana and Mississippi coastlines, where a Storm Surge Warning
is in effect. Residents in the warning area should follow advice,
including evacuation orders, given by local officials.

2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected
in portions of southern Louisiana Wednesday, where a Hurricane
Warning is in effect. Preparations to protect life and property
should be complete by tonight, since tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin within this area early Wednesday.

3. Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of
considerable flash and urban flooding across eastern Louisiana,
Mississippi, far southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle
through Thursday. Flash and urban flooding is probable across the
Lower Tennessee Valley and Lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday night
into Friday morning.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 25.7N 95.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 26.9N 94.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 28.9N 92.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 31.0N 90.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
48H 12/1800Z 33.4N 89.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 13/0600Z 35.3N 89.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 13/1800Z 36.1N 89.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 14/1800Z 37.5N 89.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 102037
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062024
2100 UTC TUE SEP 10 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 95.0W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 120SE 100SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 95.0W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 95.3W

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 26.9N 94.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 28.9N 92.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 31.0N 90.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 120SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 33.4N 89.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 35.3N 89.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 36.1N 89.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 37.5N 89.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.7N 95.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 11/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 102037
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Francine Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
400 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024

...FRANCINE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...
...CHANGES TO WARNINGS AND WATCHES ALONG THE GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.7N 95.0W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM E OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for Lake Maurepas, Lake
Pontchartrain, and metropolitan New Orleans.

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the Alabama coast
from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border.

The Hurricane Warning for the southwestern coast of Louisiana from
Sabine Pass to Cameron has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning.

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued for the Texas coast
west of Sabine Pass.

All warnings and watches have been discontinued for the Texas coast
from High Island southward.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass Texas to the Mississippi/Alabama Border
* Vermilion Bay
* Lake Maurepas
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Louisiana coast from Cameron eastward to Grand Isle

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama Border to the Alabama/Florida Border
* Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New
Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Texas and Louisiana coasts east of High Island to Cameron
* East of Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New
Orleans

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. A Storm Surge
Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation,
from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated
locations during the next 48 hours.

For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Francine was
located near latitude 25.7 North, longitude 95.0 West. Francine is
moving toward the northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A continued
northeastward motion and a faster forward speed are expected
tonight and Wednesday. On the forecast track, Francine is
anticipated to move across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico tonight,
and then make landfall in Louisiana on Wednesday or Wednesday
night. After landfall, the center is expected to move northward
into Mississippi on Wednesday night or Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected through Wednesday morning, and
Francine will likely become a hurricane tonight. Francine is
expected to weaken quickly after landfall.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Francine can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area on Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions arriving
in the warning area by early Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are
possible in the Hurricane Watch area Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Tropical Storm conditions are expected in the warning area along
the coasts of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama Wednesday
and Wednesday night.

RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4
to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches across eastern
Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama and the western
Florida Panhandle through Friday morning. This rainfall could lead
to considerable flash and urban flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...5-10 ft
Vermilion Bay...5-10 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...4-7 ft
Cameron, LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA...3-5 ft
Pointe a la Hache, LA to MS/AL Border...3-5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected
to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However,
there may be some overtopping of local levees. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday into Wednesday
night across parts of southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi,
southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.

SURF: Swells generated by Francine are affecting much of
the northwestern Gulf Coast. These swells are expected to spread
across the remainder of the northern Gulf of Mexico coastline
during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 101742
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Francine Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
100 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024

...FRANCINE NOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.3N 95.2W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM ESE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM SW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...14 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All warnings and watches are discontinued for the Texas coast south
of Matagorda to the mouth of the Rio Grande River.

The Meteorological Service of Mexico has discontinued all warnings
and watches for the northeastern coast of Mexico.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to the Mississippi/Alabama Border
* Vermilion Bay
* Lake Maurepas
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Louisiana coast from Sabine Pass eastward to Grand Isle

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama Border to the Alabama/Florida Border
* Mobile Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Texas coast from High Island to Sabine Pass
* East of Grand Isle Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border,
including metropolitan New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain
* Lake Maurepas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Texas coast from Matagorda to High Island
* The Alabama coast from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the
Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. A Storm Surge
Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation,
from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated
locations during the next 48 hours.

For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Francine was
located near latitude 25.3 North, longitude 95.2 West. Francine is
moving toward the northeast near 9 mph (14 km/h). A continued
northeastward motion and a faster forward speed are expected later
this afternoon and tonight. On the forecast track, Francine is
anticipated to move away from the coast of northeastern Mexico and
south Texas this afternoon, move across the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico tonight, and then make landfall in Louisiana on Wednesday.
After landfall, the center is expected to move into Mississippi on
Wednesday night or Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected through Wednesday morning, and
Francine will likely become a hurricane later today or tonight.
Francine is expected to weaken quickly after landfall.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Francine can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area on Wednesday. with tropical storm conditions arriving
in the warning area by early Wednesday.

Tropical Storm conditions are expected in the warning area along
the coasts of Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi Wednesday and
Wednesday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
watch area along the Texas coast tonight and Wednesday, and they
are also possible in the watch area on the Alabama coast on
Wednesday and Wednesday night. Wind gusts to tropical-storm force
could occur along portions of the coasts of South Texas and
northeastern Mexico this afternoon.

RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to
8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches across much of Louisiana
and Mississippi through Friday morning. This rainfall could lead to
considerable flash and urban flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...5-10 ft
Vermilion Bay...5-10 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...4-7 ft
Sabine Pass, TX to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA...3-5 ft
Pointe a la Hache, LA to MS/AL Border...3-5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected
to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However,
there may be some overtopping of local levees. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday morning through
Wednesday night over near-coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi,
Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.

SURF: Swells generated by Francine are affecting portions of the
coast of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas. These swells are
expected to spread across the northwestern and northern Gulf of
Mexico coastline during the next day or so. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 101449
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Francine Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024

Satellite imagery and data from the WSR-88D Doppler radar in
Brownsville indicate that the central core of Francine has become
better organized, with the development of a central dense overcast
and increased convective banding near the center. In addition,
reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
show that the central pressure has fallen to around 988 mb. However,
these developments have not yet resulted an increase in wind speed,
as the aircraft-reported winds still support an intensity near
55 kt this advisory.

After meandering last night, Francine is now moving
north-northeastward with an initial motion of 020/7 kt. An
approaching mid-latitude shortwave trough over Texas should cause
the storm to turn northeastward at a faster forward speed during the
next 24-36 h, and this motion should bring the center to the
Louisiana coast sometime Wednesday afternoon or evening. After
landfall, Francine should turn more northward between the trough and
a mid-level ridge over the eastern United States. The track
guidance is generally in good agreement with this scenario. However,
there has been an eastward shift of the guidance since the last
advisory, and thus the new forecast track is also shifted eastward.
In response to this eastward shift in track and southeastern wind
radii, the hurricane warning in Louisiana was extended eastward at
12Z, and this advisory has new tropical storm warnings and watches
for the coasts of Mississippi and Alabama.

Francine has about 24-30 h to strengthen over warm water before it
encounters strong shear near the Louisiana coast. While there is a
possibility that dry air entrainment could reduce the
intensification rate, the intensity continues to call for steady to
rapid strengthening during this time based on the otherwise
favorable conditions. While it is not explicitly shown in the
latest forecast, the cyclone could reach a peak intensity near 85 kt
between the 24 h point and landfall. Intensification is expected to
stop before landfall, and rapid weakening is expected after
landfall. The global models show the remnants of Francine
dissipating after 96 h, and the intensity forecast follows that
scenario. Overall, the intensity forecast is at the upper edge of
the intensity guidance.

An experimental cone graphic that includes inland Hurricane and
Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings in the U.S. is now available on
the NHC website. Due to the time needed to compile the inland watch
and warning information, the experimental cone graphic will not be
available as quickly as the operational cone. Once it is available,
the experimental cone graphic can be found from a red weblink above
the operational cone graphic at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents. Users are
encouraged to take the experimental product survey found below the
experimental cone.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge for portions of
the Upper Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi coastlines where a Storm
Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in the warning area should
follow advice, including evacuation orders, given by local
officials.

2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected
in portions of southern Louisiana Wednesday, where a Hurricane
Warning is in effect. Preparations to protect life and property
should be complete by tonight, since tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin within this area early Wednesday.

3. Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of
considerable flash and urban flooding for far northeast Mexico into
the far southern coast of Texas today and across much of Louisiana
and Mississippi through Thursday. Flash and urban flooding is
probable across the Mid-South Wednesday night into Friday morning.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 24.9N 95.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 26.0N 94.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 27.8N 93.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 29.9N 91.3W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
48H 12/1200Z 32.2N 90.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
60H 13/0000Z 34.6N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 13/1200Z 35.8N 90.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 14/1200Z 37.0N 90.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 101448
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062024
1500 UTC TUE SEP 10 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 95.6W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 180SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 95.6W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 95.8W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 26.0N 94.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 110SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 27.8N 93.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 110SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 29.9N 91.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 32.2N 90.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 34.6N 90.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 35.8N 90.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 37.0N 90.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.9N 95.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 10/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 101448
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Francine Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024

...FRANCINE NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...
...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.9N 95.6W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
ABOUT 425 MI...690 KM SW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from the Mouth of the
Mississippi River, Louisiana, eastward to the
Mississippi/Alabama Border, including Lake Maurepas and Lake
Pontchartrain.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from the
Mississippi/Alabama Border to the Alabama/Florida Border,
including Mobile Bay.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Mississippi coast
east of the mouth of the Pearl River to the
Mississippi/Alabama border.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Alabama coast from
the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to the Mississippi/Alabama Border
* Vermilion Bay
* Lake Maurepas
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Louisiana coast from Sabine Pass eastward to Grand Isle

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama Border to the Alabama/Florida Border
* Mobile Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* High Island to Sabine Pass
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield
* La Pesca Mexico to the Mouth of the Rio Grande
* East of Grand Isle Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border,
including metropolitan New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain
* Lake Maurepas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barra del Tordo to La Pesca Mexico
* Port Mansfield to High Island Texas
* The Alabama coast from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the
Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. A Storm Surge
Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation,
from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated
locations during the next 48 hours.

For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Francine was
located near latitude 24.9 North, longitude 95.6 West. Francine is
moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn to
the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected later
today or tonight. On the forecast track, Francine is anticipated to
be just offshore of the coasts of northeastern Mexico and southern
Texas through this afternoon, and then move across the northwestern
Gulf of Mexico, making landfall in Louisiana on Wednesday. After
landfall, the center is expected to move into Mississippi on
Wednesday night or Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected through Wednesday morning, and
Francine will likely become a hurricane later today or tonight.
Francine is expected to weaken quickly after landfall.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure reported by NOAA and Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Francine can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area on Wednesday. with tropical storm conditions arriving
in the warning area by early Wednesday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Mexico
and south Texas for the next several hours. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area along the
northeastern coast of Mexico for the next few hours. Tropical Storm
conditions are expected in the warning area along the Louisiana and
Mississippi coasts Wednesday and Wednesday night. Tropical storm
conditions are also possible along portions of the Texas coast in
the watch area today and tonight, and are possible in the watch area
on the Alabama coast on Wednesday and Wednesday night.

RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to
8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches across much of Louisiana
and Mississippi through Friday morning. This rainfall could lead to
considerable flash and urban flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...5-10 ft
Vermilion Bay...5-10 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...4-7 ft
Sabine Pass, TX to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA...3-5 ft
Pointe a la Hache, LA to MS/AL Border...3-5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected
to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However,
there may be some overtopping of local levees. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

Minor coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Mexico in
areas of onshore winds.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday morning through
Wednesday night over near-coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi,
Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.

SURF: Swells generated by Francine are affecting portions of the
coast of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas. These swells are
expected to spread across the northwestern and northern Gulf of
Mexico coastline during the next day or so. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 101153
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Francine Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
700 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024

...FRANCINE LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY...
...HURRICANE WARNING EXTENDED EASTWARD ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 95.9W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
ABOUT 395 MI...540 KM SSW OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for the Louisiana coast east
of Morgan City to Grand Isle.

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the Louisiana coast
east of Grand Isle to the mouth of the Pearl River, including
metropolitan New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River Louisiana
* Vermilion Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Louisiana coast from Sabine Pass eastward to Grand Isle

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River Louisiana to the
Mississippi/Alabama Border
* Lake Maurepas
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City to Grand Isle
* High Island to Sabine Pass
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield
* La Pesca Mexico to the Mouth of the Rio Grande
* East of Grand Isle Louisiana to Mouth of the Pearl River,
including metropolitan New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain
* Lake Maurepas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barra del Tordo to La Pesca Mexico
* Port Mansfield to High Island Texas

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. A Storm Surge
Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation,
from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated
locations during the next 48 hours.

For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Francine was
located near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 95.9 West. Francine is
moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow northward
motion is expected through this morning, followed by a turn to the
northeast with an increase in forward speed. On the forecast
track, Francine is anticipated to be just offshore of the coasts of
northeastern Mexico and southern Texas through today, and make
landfall in Louisiana on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Francine will likely become a hurricane today, with
significant strengthening expected before it reaches the coast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure just reported by a NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 990 mb (29.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Francine can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area on Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the
hurricane watch area on Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions
expected by Wednesday morning within the warning areas.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Mexico
and south Texas through this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions
are possible within the watch area along the northeastern coast
of Mexico for the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions
are also possible along portions of the Texas coast in the watch
area today and tonight, and are possible in the watch area in
eastern Louisiana on Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to
8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches across much of Louisiana
and Mississippi through Friday morning. This rainfall could lead
to considerable flash and urban flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cameron, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...5-10 ft
Vermilion Bay...5-10 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...4-7 ft
High Island, TX to Cameron, LA...3-5 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to MS/AL Border...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to High Island, TX...1-3 ft
Galveston Bay...1-3 ft
MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected
to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However,
there may be some overtopping of local levees. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

Minor coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Mexico in
areas of onshore winds.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday morning through
Wednesday night over near-coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi,
Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.

SURF: Swells generated by Francine are affecting portions of the
coast of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas. These swells are
expected to spread across the northwestern and northern Gulf of
Mexico coastline during the next day or so. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 100849
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Francine Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
400 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024

Francine has not become appreciably better organized overnight.
There is a large cluster of cold-topped convection located well to
the northeast of the center, but the central deep convection is
still not very strong. Some banding features appear to be
developing over the northeastern portion of the circulation. The
advisory intensity is held at 55 kt for now, in agreement with
earlier data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft, and a
subjective Dvorak Current Intensity number from TAFB. Objective
Dvorak intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS are a little lower. Air
Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft are scheduled to
investigate the storm in a few hours and should provide a good
estimate of Francine's intensity.

Center fixes from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft and ASCAT
data showed little motion a few hours ago, but recent satellite
imagery suggest a slow north-northwestward motion at around 340/4
kt. The general steering scenario for the next couple of days
remains about the same as in the previous advisory. Francine should
move mostly northward today along the western periphery of a mid
level high over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. By late tonight, a
shortwave trough over Texas is expected to cause a turn toward the
northeast with an increase in forward speed. This motion should
bring the center of the system to the Louisiana coast tomorrow
afternoon or evening. The model tracks are in fairly good agreement
on this scenario, although there is still some cross- and
along-track spread. The official track forecast in the 36- to
48-hour time frame has been nudged just a few tenths to the east of
the previous one, and lies between the ECMWF solution and the
multi-model consensus prediction.

The tropical cyclone should be over very warm waters before
landfall, although west-southwesterly vertical wind shear over the
system is likely to increase. The latter environmental influence
will probably limit Francine's strengthening. Nonetheless, the
SHIPS-RI Index shows a significant probability of at least a 25-kt
increase in maximum winds during the next 24 hours. The official
intensity forecast is now at the high end of the model guidance.

An experimental cone graphic that includes inland Hurricane and
Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings in the U.S. is now available on
the NHC website. Due to the time needed to compile the inland watch
and warning information, the experimental cone graphic will not be
available as quickly as the operational cone. Once it is available,
the experimental cone graphic can be found from a red weblink above
the operational cone graphic at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents. Users are
encouraged to take the experimental product survey found below the
experimental cone.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge for portions
of the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines where a Storm Surge
Warning is in effect. Residents in the warning area should follow
advice, including evacuation orders, given by local officials.

2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected
in portions of southern Louisiana Wednesday, where a Hurricane
Warning is in effect. Preparations to protect life and property
should be complete by tonight, since tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin within this area early Wednesday.

3. Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of
considerable flash flooding for much of Louisiana and Mississippi
through Thursday. Flash and urban flooding is probable across
portions of northeast Mexico and far southern Texas into early
Wednesday, and the Mid-South Wednesday night into Friday morning.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 24.4N 96.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 25.4N 95.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 27.1N 94.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 29.0N 92.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 31.4N 91.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
60H 12/1800Z 33.8N 90.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 13/0600Z 35.7N 90.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 14/0600Z 37.0N 90.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 100848
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Francine Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
400 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024

...FRANCINE LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 96.2W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM SSW OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River Louisiana
* Vermilion Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Louisiana coast from Sabine Pass eastward to Morgan City

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River Louisiana to the
Mississippi/Alabama Border
* Lake Maurepas
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Louisiana coast from Morgan City eastward to Grand Isle

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City to Grand Isle
* High Island to Sabine Pass
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield
* La Pesca Mexico to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barra del Tordo to La Pesca Mexico
* Port Mansfield to High Island Texas
* East of Grand Isle Louisiana to Mouth of the Pearl River,
including metropolitan New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain
* Lake Maurepas

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. A Storm Surge
Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation,
from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated
locations during the next 48 hours.

For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Francine was
located near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 96.2 West. Francine is
moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow
north-northwest motion is expected through this morning,
followed by a turn to the northeast with an increase in forward
speed. On the forecast track, Francine is anticipated to be just
offshore of the coasts of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas
through today, and make landfall in Louisiana on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Francine will likely become a hurricane today, with
significant strengthening expected before it reaches the coast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Francine can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area on Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the
hurricane watch area on Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions
expected by Wednesday morning within the warning areas.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Mexico
and south Texas through this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions
are possible within the watch area along the northeastern coast
of Mexico for the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions
are also possible along portions of the Texas coast in the watch
area today and tonight, and are possible in the watch area in
eastern Louisiana on Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to
8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches across much of Louisiana
and Mississippi through Friday morning. This rainfall could lead
to considerable flash and urban flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cameron, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...5-10 ft
Vermilion Bay...5-10 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...4-7 ft
High Island, TX to Cameron, LA...3-5 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to MS/AL Border...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to High Island, TX...1-3 ft
Galveston Bay...1-3 ft
MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected
to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However,
there may be some overtopping of local levees. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

Minor coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Mexico in
areas of onshore winds.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday morning through
Wednesday night over near-coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi,
Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.

SURF: Swells generated by Francine are affecting portions of the
coast of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas. These swells are
expected to spread across the northwestern and northern Gulf of
Mexico coastline during the next day or so. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 100848
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062024
0900 UTC TUE SEP 10 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 96.2W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 96.2W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 96.2W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 25.4N 95.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 110SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 27.1N 94.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 110SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 29.0N 92.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 31.4N 91.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 33.8N 90.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 35.7N 90.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 37.0N 90.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 96.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 10/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 100537
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Francine Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
100 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024

...STRONG WINDS AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE EXPECTED ALONG THE
LOUISIANA COAST TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.3N 96.3W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
ABOUT 425 MI...690 KM SSW OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River Louisiana
* Vermilion Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Louisiana coast from Sabine Pass eastward to Morgan City

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River Louisiana to the
Mississippi/Alabama Border
* Lake Maurepas
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Louisiana coast from Morgan City eastward to Grand Isle

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City to Grand Isle
* High Island to Sabine Pass
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield
* La Pesca Mexico to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barra del Tordo to La Pesca Mexico
* Port Mansfield to High Island Texas
* East of Grand Isle Louisiana to Mouth of the Pearl River,
including metropolitan New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain
* Lake Maurepas

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. A Storm Surge
Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation,
from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated
locations during the next 48 hours.

For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Francine was
located near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 96.3 West. Francine
has moved little over the past few hours, but it is expected to
resume a motion toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A
slow north-northwest motion is expected through this morning,
followed by a turn to the northeast with an increase in forward
speed. On the forecast track, Francine is anticipated to be just
offshore of the coasts of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas
through today, and make landfall in Louisiana on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Francine will likely become a hurricane today, with
significant strengthening expected before it reaches the coast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft observations is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Francine can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area on Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the
hurricane watch area on Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions
expected by Wednesday morning within the warning areas.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Mexico
and south Texas through this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions
are possible within the watch area along the northeastern coast
of Mexico for the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions
are also possible along portions of the Texas coast in the watch
area today and tonight, and are possible in the watch area in
eastern Louisiana on Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to
8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches, from the coast of far
northeast Mexico northward over the far lower and far upper Texas
coasts, and across much of Louisiana and Mississippi into Thursday
morning. This rainfall could lead to considerable flash and urban
flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cameron, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...5-10 ft
Vermilion Bay...5-10 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...4-7 ft
High Island, TX to Cameron, LA...3-5 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to MS/AL Border...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to High Island, TX...1-3 ft
Galveston Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected
to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However,
there may be some overtopping of local levees. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

Minor coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Mexico in
areas of onshore winds.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

SURF: Swells generated by Francine are affecting portions of the
coast of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas. These swells are
expected to spread across the northwestern and northern Gulf of
Mexico coastline during the next day or so. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 100231
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Francine Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
1000 PM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024

After strengthening this afternoon, Francine's intensity appears to
have leveled off for now. Around 18Z today, microwave images
indicated that the storm had a closed low-level eyewall and a
relatively symmetric cloud pattern. However, an intrusion of dry
air has caused the inner core convection to degrade. The Air Force
and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft have been investigating Francine
this evening and have found that the maximum winds have changed
little from earlier and remain around 55 kt. However, the minimum
pressure reported from the aircraft has dropped to 992 mb, which
could indicate that strengthening will resume soon. The outer
rainbands to the west and northwest of the center are very near the
coast of northeastern Mexico and extreme southern Texas, and there
are likely tropical-storm-force winds in those bands.

The storm has been moving slowly north-northwestward or 340 degrees
at 4 kt. A mid-level ridge situated over the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico should cause Francine to continue to move slowly
northwestward to northward just off the coast of northeastern Mexico
through Tuesday morning. By late Tuesday, a trough over Texas is
expected to approach the system, and the stronger flow between the
trough and the aforementioned ridge should cause a turn to the
northeast with a pronounced increase in forward speed. This motion
should take the cyclone to the Louisiana coast Wednesday afternoon
or evening. The models are in fairly good agreement on this
scenario, but there is a fair amount of along-track spread or
differences in when the storm reaches the coast. The NHC track
forecast is similar to the previous one and near the TVCN aid.

Environmental conditions are forecast to remain quite favorable for
strengthening along Francine's path for the next 24 hours, with very
warm ocean waters while remaining in a low wind shear environment.
The SHIPS RII index for rapid intensification over the next 24 hours
has decreased a little due to some dry air in the environment around
Francine. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous
one, and lies near the high end of the intensity guidance suite.
Just prior to landfall, Francine should encounter increasing
west-southwesterly vertical wind shear, which will likely end the
intensification trend. Rapid weakening is expected after the storm
moves inland.

An experimental cone graphic that includes inland Hurricane and
Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings in the U.S. is now available on
the NHC website. Due to the time needed to compile the inland watch
and warning information, the experimental cone graphic will not be
available as quickly as the operational cone. Once it is available,
the experimental cone graphic can be found from a red weblink above
the operational cone graphic at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents. Users are
encouraged to take the experimental product survey found below the
experimental cone.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge for portions
of the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines where a Storm Surge
Warning is in effect. Residents in the warning area should follow
advice, including evacuation orders, given by local officials.

2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected
in portions of southern Louisiana Wednesday, where a Hurricane
Warning is in effect. Preparations to protect life and property
should be complete by Tuesday night since tropical storm conditions
are expected to begin within this area early Wednesday.

3. Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of
considerable flash flooding along the coast of northeast Mexico,
the far lower and far upper Texas coasts, much of Louisiana, and
Mississippi into Thursday morning. A risk of flash and urban
flooding exists across portions of the Mid-South from Wednesday
night into Friday morning.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 24.3N 96.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 24.9N 96.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 26.2N 95.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 27.9N 93.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 29.9N 92.2W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
60H 12/1200Z 32.4N 90.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 13/0000Z 34.6N 90.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 14/0000Z 36.6N 90.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 100230
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062024
0300 UTC TUE SEP 10 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 96.2W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 180SE 210SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 96.2W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 96.0W

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 24.9N 96.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 26.2N 95.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 27.9N 93.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 15NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 29.9N 92.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 25SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 110SE 70SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 32.4N 90.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 34.6N 90.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 36.6N 90.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.3N 96.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 10/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/HAGEN


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 100230
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Francine Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
1000 PM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024

...FRANCINE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON...
...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
LOUISIANA COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.3N 96.2W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM SSW OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River Louisiana
* Vermilion Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Louisiana coast from Sabine Pass eastward to Morgan City

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River Louisiana to the
Mississippi/Alabama Border
* Lake Maurepas
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Louisiana coast from Morgan City eastward to Grand Isle

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City to Grand Isle
* High Island to Sabine Pass
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield
* La Pesca Mexico to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barra del Tordo to La Pesca Mexico
* Port Mansfield to High Island Texas
* East of Grand Isle Louisiana to Mouth of the Pearl River,
including metropolitan New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain
* Lake Maurepas

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. A Storm Surge
Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation,
from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated
locations during the next 48 hours.

For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Francine was
located near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 96.2 West. Francine is
moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A continued
slow north-northwest motion is expected through Tuesday morning,
followed by a turn to the northeast with an increase in forward
speed. On the forecast track, Francine is anticipated to be just
offshore of the coasts of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas
through Tuesday, and make landfall in Louisiana on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Francine will likely become a hurricane early Tuesday, with
significant strengthening expected before it reaches the coast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA and Air
Force Hurricane Hunters is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Francine can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area on Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the
hurricane watch area on Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions
expected by Wednesday morning within the warning areas.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Mexico
and south Texas through Tuesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions
are possible within the watch area along the northern coast of
Mexico tonight. Tropical storm conditions are also possible along
portions of the Texas coast in the watch area Tuesday and Tuesday
night, and are possible in the watch area in eastern Louisiana on
Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to
8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches, from the coast of far
northeast Mexico northward over the far lower and far upper Texas
coasts, and across much of Louisiana and Mississippi into Thursday
morning. This rainfall could lead to considerable flash and urban
flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Francine, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cameron, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...5-10 ft
Vermilion Bay...5-10 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...4-7 ft
High Island, TX to Cameron, LA...3-5 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to MS/AL Border...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to High Island, TX...1-3 ft
Galveston Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected
to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However, there
may be some overtopping of local levees. For information specific
to your area, please see products issued by your local National
Weather Service forecast office.

Minor coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Mexico in
areas of onshore winds.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

SURF: Swells generated by Francine are affecting portions of the
coast of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas. These swells are
expected to spread across the northwestern and northern Gulf of
Mexico coastline during the next day or so. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 092357
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Francine Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
700 PM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024

...FRANCINE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON...
...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
LOUISIANA COAST...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 96.0W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
ABOUT 425 MI...690 KM SSW OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for extreme southern Texas
from Port Mansfield southward to the Mouth of the Rio Grande.

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from
La Pesca northward to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River Louisiana
* Vermilion Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Louisiana coast from Sabine Pass eastward to Morgan City

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River Louisiana to the
Mississippi/Alabama Border
* Lake Maurepas
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Louisiana coast from Morgan City eastward to Grand Isle

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City to Grand Isle
* High Island to Sabine Pass
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield
* La Pesca to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barra del Tordo to La Pesca Mexico
* Port Mansfield to High Island Texas
* East of Grand Isle Louisiana to Mouth of the Pearl River,
including metropolitan New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain
* Lake Maurepas

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. A Storm Surge
Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation,
from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated
locations during the next 48 hours.

For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Francine was
located near latitude 24.1 North, longitude 96.0 West. Francine is
moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A continued
north-northwest motion is expected through this evening followed by
a turn to the northeast with some acceleration beginning Tuesday. On
the forecast track, Francine is anticipated to be just offshore of
the coasts of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas through
Tuesday, and nearing the Louisiana and Upper Texas coastline on
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Significant strengthening is forecast over the next couple
of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force
Hurricane Hunters is 993 mb (29.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Francine can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area on
Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch
area on Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions expected by
Wednesday morning within the warning areas.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Mexico
and south Texas through Tuesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions
are possible within the watch area along the northern coast of
Mexico tonight. Tropical storm conditions are also possible along
portions of the Texas coast in the watch area Tuesday and Tuesday
night, and are possible in the watch area in eastern Louisiana on
Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to
8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches, from the coast of
northeast Mexico northward over the far lower and far upper Texas
coasts, across southern Louisiana, and southern Mississippi into
Thursday morning. This rainfall could lead to the risk of
considerable flash and urban flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Francine, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cameron, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...5-10 ft
Vermilion Bay...5-10 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...4-7 ft
High Island, TX to Cameron, LA...3-5 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to MS/AL Border...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to High Island, TX...1-3 ft
Galveston Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected
to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However, there
may be some overtopping of local levees. For information specific
to your area, please see products issued by your local National
Weather Service forecast office.

Minor coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Mexico in
areas of onshore winds.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

SURF: Swells generated by Francine are affecting portions of the
coast of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas. These swells are
expected to spread across the northwestern and northern Gulf of
Mexico coastline during the next day or so. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 092053
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Francine Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
400 PM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024

Since the prior advisory, Francine's structure has continued to
improve. Curved bands are becoming more obvious on geostationary
satellite imagery, even if the coldest cloud tops have warmed from
earlier today. The last Air Force reconnaissance mission into
Francine on its final center fix found a formative inner-core with a
partial eyewall, 850 mb flight level winds up to 58 kt, and pressure
down to 996 mb, a significant drop from this morning. These data
were the basis for bringing the 18 UTC intensity up to 50 kt. Since
then, a mid-level eye feature on the Brownsville radar has become
apparent. Assuming some additional deepening, the initial intensity
is set to 55 kt for this advisory.

With the center becoming better established, the motion is a bit
easier to estimate, currently at 340/6 kt. While the system has
reformed a bit west of the previous track, the overall thinking has
not changed much, as Francine will be moving around the periphery of
a mid-level ridge centered over Cuba, and an upper-level trough
propagating into Texas. This trough will ultimately shift the track
of a more vertically deep Francine northeastward tomorrow with
gradual acceleration until the storm makes landfall sometime between
48 to 60 h. The track guidance this cycle has shifted westward,
likely due to the more westward initial position, and is also a
little faster. The latest NHC track forecast follows suit, showing a
shift to the west and a faster motion, blending the prior forecast
towards the reliable consensus aids TCVN and HCCA.

With the forming inner-core earlier observed by recon and still seen
on radar currently, the tropical storm appears poised to intensify
more significantly in the short term. Given the low vertical wind
shear, ample moisture, and very warm sea-surface temperatures, a
faster rate of intensification is shown over the next 36 h, and
Francine is now forecast to become a hurricane tonight or tomorrow
morning, and a Category 2 hurricane by Wednesday. In the final
12-18 h before landfall, shear is expected to increase markedly,
which will likely halt the intensification, though Francine is
expected to be a Category 2 hurricane at landfall. Rapid weakening
is expected after the system moves inland. The NHC intensity
forecast is on the upper-end of the overall intensity guidance, but
still is lower than some of the hurricane-regional model guidance
(HAFS-B, HMON).

Given the changes to the forecast, Hurricane and Storm Surge
Warnings have been issued for a significant portion of the
Louisiana coastline.

An experimental cone graphic that includes inland Hurricane and
Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings in the U.S. is now available on
the NHC website. Due to the time needed to compile the inland watch
and warning information, the experimental cone graphic will not be
available as quickly as the operational cone. Once it is available,
the experimental cone graphic can be found from a red weblink above
the operational cone graphic at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents. Users are
encouraged to take the experimental product survey found below the
experimental cone.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Francine is expected to be a hurricane when it reaches the coast
of Louisiana on Wednesday, and there is a danger of life-threatening
storm surge for portions of the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines
where a Storm Surge Warning is now in effect. Residents in the
warning area should follow advice, including evacuation orders,
given by local officials.

2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected
in portions of southern Louisiana Wednesday, where a Hurricane
Warning is now in effect. Preparations to protect life and property
should be complete by Tuesday night since tropical storm conditions
are expected to begin within this area early Wednesday.

3. Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of
considerable flash flooding along the coast of northeast Mexico,
the far lower and far upper Texas coasts, southern Louisiana, and
southern Mississippi into Thursday morning. A risk of flash and
urban flooding exists across portions of the Mid-South from
Wednesday into Friday morning.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 24.0N 96.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 24.8N 96.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 25.9N 95.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 27.4N 94.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 29.4N 92.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 12/0600Z 31.8N 91.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 12/1800Z 34.2N 90.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 13/1800Z 36.9N 90.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 14/1800Z 38.2N 89.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 092052
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Francine Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
400 PM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024

...FRANCINE QUICKLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...
...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE
LOUISIANA COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 96.0W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM SSW OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from east of High Island,
Texas, eastward to the Mouth of the Mississippi River, Louisiana,
including Vermilion Bay.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the Louisiana Coast from
Sabine Pass to Morgan City

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Louisiana Coast
east of Morgan City to Grand Isle and from High Island Texas to
Sabine Pass.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Texas Coast from
Port Mansfield northward to High Island.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River Louisiana
* Vermilion Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Louisiana coast from Sabine Pass eastward to Morgan City

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River Louisiana to the
Mississippi/Alabama Border
* Lake Maurepas
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Louisiana coast from Morgan City eastward to Grand Isle

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City to Grand Isle
* High Island to Sabine Pass

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barra del Tordo to the Mouth of the Rio Grande
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island Texas
* East of Grand Isle Louisiana to Mouth of the Pearl River,
including metropolitan New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain
* Lake Maurepas

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. A Storm Surge
Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation,
from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated
locations during the next 48 hours.

For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Francine was
located near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 96.0 West. Francine is
moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A continued
north-northwest motion is expected through this evening followed by
a turn to the northeast with some acceleration beginning Tuesday.
On the forecast track, Francine is anticipated to be just offshore
of the coasts of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas through
Tuesday, and nearing the Louisiana and Upper Texas coastline on
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Significant strengthening is forecast over the
next couple of days, and Francine is expected to become a hurricane
tonight or Tuesday morning.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Francine can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area on
Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch
area on Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions expected by
Wednesday morning within the warning areas.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area along
the northern coast of Mexico tonight and could spread along the
Texas coast on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area in eastern Louisiana on
Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to
8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches, from the coast of
northeast Mexico northward over the far lower and far upper Texas
coasts, across southern Louisiana, and southern Mississippi into
Thursday morning. This rainfall could lead to the risk of
considerable flash and urban flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Francine, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cameron, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...5-10 ft
Vermilion Bay...5-10 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...4-7 ft
High Island, TX to Cameron, LA...3-5 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to MS/AL Border...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to High Island, TX...1-3 ft
Galveston Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected
to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However, there
may be some overtopping of local levees. For information specific
to your area, please see products issued by your local National
Weather Service forecast office.

Minor coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Mexico in
areas of onshore winds.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

SURF: Swells generated by Francine are affecting portions of the
coast of northeastern Mexico and are expected to spread
across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coastline during the next
day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 092051
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062024
2100 UTC MON SEP 09 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 96.0W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 180SE 210SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 96.0W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 95.8W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 24.8N 96.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 25.9N 95.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 27.4N 94.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 15NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 29.4N 92.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 45NE 50SE 45SW 35NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 31.8N 91.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 34.2N 90.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 36.9N 90.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 38.2N 89.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.0N 96.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 10/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 091746
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Francine Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
100 PM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024

...FRANCINE STRONGER AND BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...
...PREPARATIONS ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST SHOULD BE UNDERWAY...

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.7N 95.8W
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
ABOUT 450 MI...720 KM SSW OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to the Mississippi/Alabama Border
* Vermilion Bay
* Lake Maurepas
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Louisiana coast from Cameron eastward to Grand Isle

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barra del Tordo to the Mouth of the Rio Grande
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield
* East of High Island Texas to Cameron Louisiana
* East of Grand Isle to Mouth of the Pearl River
* Lake Pontchartrain
* Lake Maurepas

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Francine was
located near latitude 23.7 North, longitude 95.8 West. Francine is
moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and a slow
north-northwestward motion is expected for the remainder of the day,
followed by a faster motion to the northeast beginning on Tuesday.
On the forecast track, Francine is anticipated to be just offshore
of the northern Gulf Coast of Mexico on Tuesday, and approaching the
Louisiana and Upper Texas coastline on Wednesday.

Recent Air Force reconnaissance data indicates that maximum
sustained winds have increased to 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional intensification is expected over the next day with
more significant intensification forecast on Tuesday Night and
Wednesday. Francine is expected to become a hurricane before it
reaches the northwestern U.S. Gulf Coast on Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.41 inches)
based on dropsonde data.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Francine can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by
Wednesday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions possible by
Wednesday morning.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area along
the northern coast of Mexico and extreme southern Texas beginning
Tuesday, and for the extreme northern Texas and portions of the
Louisiana coast on Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Francine is expected to bring storm
total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches,
from the coast of far northeast Mexico northward along portions of
the southern Texas coast, the far upper Texas coast and across
southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi into Thursday morning.
This rainfall could lead to the risk of considerable flash and urban
flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Francine, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cameron, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...5-10 ft
Vermilion Bay...5-10 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...4-7 ft
High Island, TX to Cameron, LA...3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected
to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However, there
may be some overtopping of local levees. For information specific
to your area, please see products issued by your local National
Weather Service forecast office.

Minor coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Mexico in
areas of onshore winds.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

SURF: Swells generated by this system are affecting portions of the
Gulf coast of Mexico and are expected to spread northwestward across
the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coastline through midweek. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 091613

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 09.09.2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L ANALYSED POSITION : 14.0N 40.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922024

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 09.09.2024 14.0N 40.8W WEAK
00UTC 10.09.2024 14.7N 40.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2024 14.6N 41.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2024 14.7N 42.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2024 14.9N 44.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.09.2024 14.8N 46.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2024 15.3N 49.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM 06L ANALYSED POSITION : 22.7N 93.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062024

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 09.09.2024 22.7N 93.9W WEAK
00UTC 10.09.2024 23.8N 95.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2024 24.8N 95.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2024 26.5N 94.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.09.2024 28.3N 92.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.09.2024 30.3N 90.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2024 32.6N 88.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2024 35.6N 88.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.09.2024 36.9N 88.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 14.09.2024 38.1N 87.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 14.09.2024 40.0N 86.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2024 40.1N 86.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 18.4N 42.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 13.09.2024 18.6N 42.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 14.09.2024 19.8N 44.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2024 20.1N 47.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2024 20.0N 47.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2024 21.3N 48.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2024 20.6N 50.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2024 22.7N 50.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 20.8N 111.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 13.09.2024 21.1N 111.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 14.09.2024 22.2N 112.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2024 23.2N 112.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 091613


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 091613

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 09.09.2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L ANALYSED POSITION : 14.0N 40.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.09.2024 0 14.0N 40.8W 1013 21
0000UTC 10.09.2024 12 14.7N 40.8W 1012 20
1200UTC 10.09.2024 24 14.6N 41.2W 1012 22
0000UTC 11.09.2024 36 14.7N 42.4W 1011 24
1200UTC 11.09.2024 48 14.9N 44.1W 1011 26
0000UTC 12.09.2024 60 14.8N 46.4W 1011 26
1200UTC 12.09.2024 72 15.3N 49.4W 1011 24
0000UTC 13.09.2024 84 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM 06L ANALYSED POSITION : 22.7N 93.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.09.2024 0 22.7N 93.9W 1004 38
0000UTC 10.09.2024 12 23.8N 95.7W 1000 39
1200UTC 10.09.2024 24 24.8N 95.3W 998 39
0000UTC 11.09.2024 36 26.5N 94.2W 994 35
1200UTC 11.09.2024 48 28.3N 92.4W 992 46
0000UTC 12.09.2024 60 30.3N 90.0W 990 37
1200UTC 12.09.2024 72 32.6N 88.8W 994 29
0000UTC 13.09.2024 84 35.6N 88.3W 996 20
1200UTC 13.09.2024 96 36.9N 88.7W 1000 16
0000UTC 14.09.2024 108 38.1N 87.0W 1006 27
1200UTC 14.09.2024 120 40.0N 86.8W 1009 21
0000UTC 15.09.2024 132 40.1N 86.7W 1010 18
1200UTC 15.09.2024 144 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 18.4N 42.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.09.2024 96 18.6N 42.5W 1009 34
0000UTC 14.09.2024 108 19.8N 44.8W 1009 34
1200UTC 14.09.2024 120 20.1N 47.5W 1008 35
0000UTC 15.09.2024 132 20.0N 47.8W 1008 31
1200UTC 15.09.2024 144 21.3N 48.8W 1007 33
0000UTC 16.09.2024 156 20.6N 50.5W 1006 32
1200UTC 16.09.2024 168 22.7N 50.6W 1005 34

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 20.8N 111.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.09.2024 96 21.1N 111.8W 1005 23
0000UTC 14.09.2024 108 22.2N 112.5W 1005 26
1200UTC 14.09.2024 120 23.2N 112.8W 1007 22
0000UTC 15.09.2024 132 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 091613


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 091534 CCA
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Francine Advisory Number 4...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
1000 AM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024

Corrected direction relative to Grand Isle in Watch and Warning
Summary section.

...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE...
...EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY WITH STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WATCHES
ISSUED FOR THE LOUISIANA COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 94.9W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SSW OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from east of High Island,
Texas, eastward to the Mississippi/Alabama Border, including
Vermilion Bay, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Pontchartrain.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued from Cameron eastward to Grand
Isle in Louisiana.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued east of High Island, Texas,
to Cameron, Louisiana, and from Grand Isle, Louisiana, to the Mouth
of the Pearl River including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to the Mississippi/Alabama Border
* Vermilion Bay
* Lake Maurepas
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Louisiana coast from Cameron eastward to Grand Isle

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barra del Tordo to the Mouth of the Rio Grande
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield
* East of High Island Texas to Cameron Louisiana
* East of Grand Isle to Mouth of the Pearl River
* Lake Pontchartrain
* Lake Maurepas

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Francine was
located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 94.9 West. Francine is
moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and a slow
north-northwestward motion is expected for the remainder of the day,
followed by a faster motion to the northeast beginning on Tuesday.
On the forecast track, Francine is expected to be just offshore of
the northern Gulf Coast of Mexico through Tuesday, and approach the
Louisiana and Upper Texas coastline on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual intensification is expected over the next day with
more significant intensification on Tuesday Night and Wednesday.
Francine is expected to become a hurricane before it reaches the
northwestern U.S. Gulf Coast on Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Francine can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by
Wednesday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions possible by
Wednesday morning.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area along
the northern coast of Mexico and extreme southern Texas beginning
Tuesday, and for the extreme northern Texas and portions of the
Louisiana coast on Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Francine is expected to bring storm
total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches,
from the coast of far northeast Mexico northward along portions of
the southern Texas coast, the far upper Texas coast and across
southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi into Thursday morning.
This rainfall could lead to the risk of considerable flash and urban
flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Francine, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cameron, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...5-10 ft
Vermilion Bay...5-10 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...4-7 ft
High Island, TX to Cameron, LA...3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected
to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However, there
may be some overtopping of local levees. For information specific
to your area, please see products issued by your local National
Weather Service forecast office.

Minor coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Mexico in
areas of onshore winds.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

SURF: Swells generated by this system are affecting portions of the
Gulf coast of Mexico and are expected to spread northwestward across
the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coastline through midweek. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 091459
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Francine Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
1000 AM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024

The structure of the system on satellite imagery has improved this
morning, with a large circular region of cold convection between -70
to -85 near the estimated center. An Air-Force Reconnaissance
Aircraft is sampling the system this morning and earlier found a
cyclonic wind shift from southeasterly to northwesterly flow near
the center of the mass of deep convection. This data provides enough
evidence that a well-defined circulation now exists, and thus PTC
Six has become Tropical Storm Francine with sustained winds of
45 kt this advisory.

The estimated motion is still tricky given the center only recently
formed but is estimated still off to the north-northwest at 340/4
kt. The system is expected to gradually turn northward and then
north-northeastward as it moves between a mid-level ridge centered
over Cuba and a broad mid- to upper-level trough located to its
northwest over Texas. The guidance this cycle has shifted a little
eastward and faster, and the NHC track forecast was once again
nudged in that direction. The current track splits the difference
between HCCA and TVCN and still shows Francine moving ashore of
Louisiana sometime on Wednesday evening. There remains a decent
amount of track uncertainty with the GEFS and EPS ensembles showing
along-track spread implying some speed differences near landfall.

While the system is now a tropical storm, the inner core wind field
per reconnaissance observations is still broad and in the organizing
stage, and initial intensification will be gradual. However, after
an inner-core becomes established, and assuming the cyclone's
vertical structure becomes aligned, a period of more significant
intensification is possible while storm is embedded in a low shear,
high mid-level moisture, and over very warm 30-31 C sea-surface
temperatures. The SHIPS rapid intensification (RI) indices are
pretty elevated, and a period of RI could also occur between 24-48
h. For now, the NHC intensity forecast will not explicitly forecast
RI, but is higher than the previous cycle and shows a 75 kt peak in
48 h, in good agreement with the intensity consensus aids. After
that period, southwesterly vertical wind shear quickly increases
from 10 kt to more than 30 kt and the intensity could plateau as it
approaches the northwestern U.S. Gulf coastline, though the system
is forecast to remain a hurricane at landfall. The NHC intensity
forecast continues to be in good agreement with the consensus aids,
but is a bit under the HAFS-A/B and COAMPS-TC models.

Given the latest forecast, a Hurricane Watch has been issued for
the Louisiana coastline from Cameron to Grand Isle, and a Storm
Surge Watch has been issued from High Island, TX eastward to the
Mississippi/Alabama Border.

With this advisory, the experimental cone graphic that includes
inland Hurricane and Tropical Storm watches in the U.S. will be
available on the NHC website. Due to the time needed to compile the
inland watch information, the experimental cone graphic will not be
available as quickly as the operational cone. The experimental cone
graphic can be found from a link on the page with the operational
cone graphic once it is available on hurricanes.gov.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Francine is forecast to be a hurricane when it reaches the
northwestern Gulf coast on Wednesday or Wednesday night and there is
an increasing likelihood of life-threatening storm surge inundation
for portions of the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines where a
Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Residents in the watch area should
follow advice given by local officials.

2. There is an increasing risk of damaging hurricane-force winds in
portions of southern Louisiana beginning Wednesday, where a
Hurricane Watch is now in effect.

3. Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of
considerable flash flooding along the coast of far northeast Mexico,
portions of the southernmost Texas coast, the Upper Texas Coast,
southern Louisiana, and southern Mississippi into Thursday morning.
A risk of flash and urban flooding exists across portions of the
Mid-South from Wednesday into Friday morning.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 23.0N 94.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 24.0N 95.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 24.9N 95.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 26.3N 95.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 28.0N 93.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 12/0000Z 29.7N 92.2W 75 KT 85 MPH...ON THE COAST
72H 12/1200Z 32.4N 90.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 13/1200Z 36.2N 89.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 14/1200Z 37.5N 88.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 091455
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Francine Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
1000 AM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024

...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE...
...EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY WITH STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WATCHES
ISSUED FOR THE LOUISIANA COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 94.9W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SSW OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from east of High Island,
Texas, eastward to the Mississippi/Alabama Border, including
Vermilion Bay, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Pontchartrain.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued from Cameron eastward to Grand
Isle in Louisiana.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued east of High Island, Texas,
to Cameron, Louisiana, and from Grand Isle, Louisiana, to the Mouth
of the Pearl River including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to the Mississippi/Alabama Border
* Vermilion Bay
* Lake Maurepas
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Hurricane Watch in in effect for...
* The Louisiana coast from Cameron eastward to Grand Isle

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barra del Tordo to the Mouth of the Rio Grande
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield
* East of High Island Texas to Cameron Louisiana
* West of Grand Isle to Mouth of the Pearl River
* Lake Pontchartrain
* Lake Maurepas

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Francine was
located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 94.9 West. Francine is
moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and a slow
north-northwestward motion is expected for the remainder of the day,
followed by a faster motion to the northeast beginning on Tuesday.
On the forecast track, Francine is expected to be just offshore of
the northern Gulf Coast of Mexico through Tuesday, and approach the
Louisiana and Upper Texas coastline on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual intensification is expected over the next day with
more significant intensification on Tuesday Night and Wednesday.
Francine is expected to become a hurricane before it reaches the
northwestern U.S. Gulf Coast on Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Francine can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by
Wednesday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions possible by
Wednesday morning.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area along
the northern coast of Mexico and extreme southern Texas beginning
Tuesday, and for the extreme northern Texas and portions of the
Louisiana coast on Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Francine is expected to bring storm
total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches,
from the coast of far northeast Mexico northward along portions of
the southern Texas coast, the far upper Texas coast and across
southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi into Thursday morning.
This rainfall could lead to the risk of considerable flash and urban
flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Francine, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cameron, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...5-10 ft
Vermilion Bay...5-10 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...4-7 ft
High Island, TX to Cameron, LA...3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected
to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However, there
may be some overtopping of local levees. For information specific
to your area, please see products issued by your local National
Weather Service forecast office.

Minor coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Mexico in
areas of onshore winds.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

SURF: Swells generated by this system are affecting portions of the
Gulf coast of Mexico and are expected to spread northwestward across
the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coastline through midweek. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 091453
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062024
1500 UTC MON SEP 09 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 94.9W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 100SE 140SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 180SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 94.9W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 94.7W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 24.0N 95.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 110SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 24.9N 95.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 26.3N 95.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 28.0N 93.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 20SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 45SW 35NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 29.7N 92.2W...ON THE COAST
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 110SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 32.4N 90.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 36.2N 89.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 37.5N 88.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 94.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 09/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 091137
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
700 AM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024

...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY...
...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ALONG THE LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS BY
MID-WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 94.9W
ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
ABOUT 545 MI...875 KM S OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barra del Tordo to the Mouth of the Rio Grande
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Hurricane, Storm Surge, and Tropical Storm Watches will likely be
required for portions of the Louisiana and Upper Texas coast later
today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
22.0 North, longitude 94.9 West. The system is moving toward the
north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow northwestward to
northward motion is expected over the next day or so, followed by a
faster motion to the northeast beginning late Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move just offshore of
the northern Gulf Coast of Mexico through Tuesday, and approach the
Louisiana and Upper Texas coastline on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm later today,
with more significant intensification forecast to occur on Tuesday
and Wednesday. The system is forecast to become a hurricane before
it reaches the northwestern U.S. Gulf Coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours... high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area along the northern coast of Mexico and extreme southern Texas
beginning Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is expected to bring storm
total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches,
from the coast of far northeast Mexico northward along portions of
the southern Texas Coast and across southern Louisiana and southern
Mississippi into Thursday morning. This rainfall would lead to the
risk of considerable flash and urban flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero.

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible along the coast of
Mexico in areas of onshore winds.

SURF: Swells generated by this system are affecting portions of the
Gulf coast of Mexico and are expected to spread northwestward across
the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coastline through midweek. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 090903
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
400 AM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024

...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME A STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM
TODAY...
...INCREASING RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ALONG THE LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS BY
MID-WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 94.8W
ABOUT 295 MI...480 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM S OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barra del Tordo to the Mouth of the Rio Grande
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Hurricane, Storm Surge, and Tropical Storm Watches will likely be
required for portions of the Louisiana and Upper Texas coast later
today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
22.2 North, longitude 94.8 West. The system is moving toward the
north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow northwestward to
northward motion is expected over the next day or so, followed by a
faster motion to the northeast beginning late Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move just offshore of
the northern Gulf Coast of Mexico through Tuesday, and approach the
Louisiana and Upper Texas coastline on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm today, with
more significant intensification forecast to occur on Tuesday. The
system is forecast to become a hurricane before it reaches the
northwestern U.S. Gulf Coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours... high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area along the northern coast of Mexico and extreme southern Texas
beginning Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is expected to bring storm
total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches,
from the coast of far northeast Mexico northward along portions of
the southern Texas Coast and across southern Louisiana and southern
Mississippi into Thursday morning. This rainfall would lead to the
risk of considerable flash and urban flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero.

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible along the coast of
Mexico in areas of onshore winds.

SURF: Swells generated by this system are affecting portions of the
Gulf coast of Mexico and are expected to spread northwestward across
the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coastline through midweek. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 090858
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
400 AM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024

...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME A STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM
TODAY..
...INCREASING RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ALONG THE LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS BY
MID-WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 94.8W
ABOUT 295 MI...480 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM S OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barra del Tordo to the Mouth of the Rio Grande
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Hurricane, Storm Surge, and Tropical Storm Watches will likely be
required for portions of the Louisiana and Upper Texas coast later
today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
22.2 North, longitude 94.8 West. The system is moving toward the
north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow northwestward to
northward motion is expected over the next day or so, followed by a
faster motion to the northeast beginning late Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move just offshore of
the northern Gulf Coast of Mexico through Tuesday, and approach the
Louisiana and Upper Texas coastline on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm today, with
more significant intensification forecast to occur on Tuesday. The
system is forecast to become a hurricane before it reaches the
northwestern U.S. Gulf Coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours... high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area along the northern coast of Mexico and extreme southern Texas
beginning Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is expected to bring storm
total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches,
from the coast of far northeast Mexico northward along portions of
the southern Texas Coast and across southern Louisiana and southern
Mississippi into Thursday morning. This rainfall would lead to the
risk of considerable flash and urban flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero.

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible along the coast of
Mexico in areas of onshore winds.

SURF: Swells generated by this system are affecting portions of the
Gulf coast of Mexico and are expected to spread northwestward across
the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coastline through midweek. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 090859
TCDAT1

Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
400 AM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024

Satellite imagery shows that the disturbance is producing
considerable deep convection with cloud tops colder than -70 deg C.
However, the cloud pattern is still in the organizing stage with not
much evidence of banding features at this time. Upper-level outflow
is becoming established over the area. Observations from an Air
Force reconnaissance aircraft, data buoy 42055, and a partial ASCAT
overpass suggest that the system has not yet developed a well-
defined center of circulation. The intensity is held at 45 kt for
this advisory with the assumption of some undersampling of the winds
over the western part of the circulation. However, this could be
generous.

Since the center is still not well defined, the initial motion is a
rather uncertain, but slow, 340/4 kt. During the next day or so,
the system is expected to move along the western side of a mid-level
ridge over the Gulf of Mexico. This motion should keep the core of
the system off the coast of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas
for the next 24-36 hours. Then, a shortwave trough over Texas is
expected to induce a turn toward the northeast with an increase in
forward speed, which would take the center of the system near and
across the northwestern or northern Gulf coast late Wednesday. The
official track forecast has again been nudged eastward in the 48-72
hour period, but not quite as far east as the ECMWF and corrected
consensus model predictions. It should be noted that confidence in
the track forecast is lower than normal since the system lacks a
well-defined center.

Since the system is still not very well-organized and lacks an inner
core structure, only slow strengthening is expected through this
morning. However, the disturbance is expected to soon become better
organized while remaining over very warm waters, with high low- to
mid-tropospheric humidity, and low vertical shear for the next 48
hours. Therefore steady strengthening is likely to begin by later
today. This is also shown by most of the numerical guidance. When
the system nears landfall, the global models show increasing
upper-level westerlies near the northwestern Gulf coast, and this
could lead to stronger vertical wind shear over the cyclone.
Therefore the rate of strengthening could at least level off as the
center nears the coast. The official intensity forecast is similar
to the previous NHC prediction, close to the Decay-SHIPS guidance,
and continues to show the system as a hurricane at landfall.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm today as it
moves near the western Gulf of Mexico coast. Tropical Storm Watches
are in effect for northeastern Mexico and extreme southern Texas.

2. The system is forecast to become a hurricane before it reaches
the northwestern Gulf Coast by the middle of the week. While it is
too soon to pinpoint the exact location and magnitude of impacts,
the potential for life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds
are increasing for portions of the Louisiana and Upper Texas
coastlines beginning Tuesday night. Hurricane and Storm Surge
Watches will likely be issued for a portion of that area later
today, and residents should ensure they have their hurricane plan in
place.

3. Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is expected to bring heavy
rainfall and the risk of considerable flash flooding along the coast
of far northeast Mexico, portions of southernmost Texas, southern
Louisiana, and southern Mississippi into Thursday morning. A risk
of flash and urban flooding exists across portions of the Mid-South
from Wednesday into Friday morning.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 22.2N 94.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 09/1800Z 23.0N 95.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 10/0600Z 24.1N 95.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 25.2N 95.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 26.8N 94.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 11/1800Z 28.5N 93.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 30.7N 91.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
96H 13/0600Z 34.9N 90.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 14/0600Z 37.5N 89.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 090856
TCMAT1

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062024
0900 UTC MON SEP 09 2024

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 94.8W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 120SE 140SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 210SE 210SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 94.8W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 94.7W

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 23.0N 95.3W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 100SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 24.1N 95.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 100SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 25.2N 95.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 26.8N 94.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 28.5N 93.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 30.7N 91.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 34.9N 90.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 37.5N 89.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.2N 94.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 09/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 090542
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
100 AM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024

...INCREASING RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ALONG THE LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS BY
MID-WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 94.7W
ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
ABOUT 550 MI...890 KM S OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barra del Tordo to the Mouth of the Rio Grande
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Hurricane, Storm Surge, and Tropical Storm Watches will likely be
required for portions of the Louisiana and Upper Texas coast later
today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the disturbance was estimated to be near
latitude 22.0 North, longitude 94.7 West. The system is moving
toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow
northwestward to northward motion is expected over the next day or
so, followed by a faster motion to the northeast beginning late
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move
just offshore of the northern Gulf Coast of Mexico through Tuesday,
and approach the Louisiana and Upper Texas coastline on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm
today, with more significant intensification forecast to occur on
Tuesday. The system is forecast to become a hurricane before it
reaches the northwestern U.S. Gulf Coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours... high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
west of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area along the northern coast of Mexico and extreme southern Texas
beginning Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is expected to bring storm
total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches,
from the coast of far northeast Mexico northward along portions of
the Texas coast and into Louisiana through Thursday. This rainfall
would lead to the risk of flash and urban flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero.

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible along the coast of
Mexico in areas of onshore winds.

SURF: Swells generated by this system are affecting portions of the
Gulf coast of Mexico and are expected to spread northwestward across
the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coastline through midweek. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 090232
TCDAT1

Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 08 2024

The system is gradually becoming better organized with deep
convection increasing in coverage and intensity over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico. However, earlier visible satellite
imagery and aircraft data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters
indicate that the disturbance does not have a well-defined center
and still resembles an elongated trough. The initial intensity
remains 45 kt based on the aircraft data. The strongest winds are
occurring on the system's west side, and are likely enhanced by the
barrier jet associated with the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico.

The initial motion is estimated to be 320/4 kt. A mid-level ridge
situated over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic
should steer the disturbance slowly northward or north-northwestward
through Tuesday morning, likely keeping the core of the system off
the coast of Mexico and southern Texas through that time. By late
Tuesday, a turn to the northeast with an increase in forward speed
is forecast as the system moves in the flow between the ridge and an
approaching shortwave trough. That motion should take the cyclone
to the Louisiana or Upper Texas coast on Wednesday. A
north-northeastward motion is forecast after landfall when the
system merges with the trough. The NHC track forecast has been
nudged eastward toward the latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF models.
It should be noted that confidence in the track forecast is lower
than normal since the system does not have a well-defined center.

Little change in strength is expected during the next 12 to 24 hours
as it will likely take some time for the system to consolidate and
develop a well organized circulation. Once the system is able to
close off and contract, steady strengthening is forecast as the
cyclone will be over warm waters and within a region of high
moisture and upper-level diffluence. However, some of the models
show an increase in shear and slightly drier air affecting the
system around the time it reaches the coast. The NHC intensity
forecast is raised from the previous one and lies roughly near the
middle of the guidance envelope.

The highest winds are expected to remain on the west side of the
system during the next day or so, but these winds should shift to
the eastern side of the circulation before the cyclone reaches the
Gulf Coast.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm on Monday as it
moves near the western Gulf of Mexico coast. Tropical Storm Watches
are in effect for northeastern Mexico and extreme southern Texas.

2. The system is forecast to become a hurricane before it reaches
the northwestern Gulf Coast by the middle of the week. While it is
too soon to pinpoint the exact location and magnitude of impacts,
the potential for life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds
are increasing for portions of the Louisiana and Upper Texas
coastlines beginning Tuesday night. Hurricane and Storm Surge
Watches will likely be issued for a portion of that area on Monday,
and residents should ensure they have their hurricane plan in
place.

3. Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is expected to bring heavy
rainfall and the risk of flash flooding from the coast of far
northeast Mexico into portions of coastal Texas and Louisiana
through Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 21.9N 94.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 09/1200Z 22.5N 95.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 23.7N 95.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 10/1200Z 25.0N 96.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 26.2N 95.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 11/1200Z 28.0N 94.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 29.9N 93.1W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
96H 13/0000Z 34.5N 90.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/0000Z 37.3N 89.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 090231
TCMAT1

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062024
0300 UTC MON SEP 09 2024

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 94.7W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 140SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 210SE 210SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 94.7W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 94.7W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 22.5N 95.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 23.7N 95.7W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 25.0N 96.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 26.2N 95.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 28.0N 94.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 29.9N 93.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 90SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 34.5N 90.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 37.3N 89.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N 94.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 09/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 090231
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 08 2024

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS...
...INCREASING RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ALONG THE LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS BY
MID-WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 94.7W
ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
ABOUT 550 MI...890 KM S OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for extreme southern Texas
from Port Mansfield southward to the Mouth of the Rio Grande.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barra del Tordo to the Mouth of the Rio Grande
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Hurricane, Storm Surge, and Tropical Storm Watches will likely be
required for portions of the Louisiana and Upper Texas coast on
Monday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 21.9 North, longitude 94.7 West. The system is moving
toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow northwestward
to northward motion is expected over the next day or so, followed
by a faster motion to the northeast beginning late Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move just offshore of
the northern Gulf Coast of Mexico through Tuesday, and approach the
Louisiana and Upper Texas coastline on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
The system is expected to become a tropical storm on Monday,
with more significant intensification forecast to occur on Tuesday.
The system is forecast to become a hurricane before it reaches the
northwestern U.S. Gulf Coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
west of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area along the northern coast of Mexico and extreme southern Texas
beginning Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is expected to bring storm
total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches,
from the coast of far northeast Mexico northward along portions of
the Texas coast and into Louisiana through Thursday. This rainfall
would lead to the risk of flash and urban flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero.

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible along the Mexico
coast within areas of onshore flow.

SURF: Swells generated by this system are affecting portions of the
Gulf coast of Mexico and are expected to spread northwestward across
the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coastline through midweek. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 082336
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
700 PM CDT Sun Sep 08 2024

...SYSTEM GRADUALLY ORGANIZING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...
...INCREASING RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DAMAGING
WINDS ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS BY MID-WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 94.7W
ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
ABOUT 555 MI...895 KM S OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barra del Tordo northward to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the elongated disturbance was centered
near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 94.7 West. The system is moving
toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow northwestward
to northward motion is expected over the next day or so, followed
by a faster motion to the northeast beginning late Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move just offshore of
the northern Gulf Coast of Mexico through Tuesday, and approach the
Upper Texas and Louisiana coastline on Wednesday.

Air Force reconnaissance data indicate that maximum sustained winds
are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. The system is expected
to become a tropical storm on Monday, with more significant
intensification forecast to occur on Tuesday. The system is
forecast to become a hurricane before it reaches the northwestern
U.S. Gulf Coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km),
primarily west of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area along the northern coast of Mexico beginning Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is expected to bring
storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12
inches, from the coast of far northeast Mexico northward along
portions of the Texas Coast and into Louisiana through Thursday.
This rainfall would lead to the risk of flash and urban flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero.

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible along the Mexico
coast within areas of onshore flow.

SURF: Swells generated by this system are affecting portions of the
Gulf coast of Mexico and are expected to spread northwestward across
the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coastline through midweek. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 082100
TCDAT1

Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
400 PM CDT Sun Sep 08 2024

The area of disturbed weather located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico does not possess a well-defined circulation yet.
Scatterometer and aircraft data indicate that it consists of an
elongated trough of low pressure oriented north-northwest to
south-southeast. However, there is a large area of 35-45 kt winds
located southwest of the trough axis. These tropical-storm-force
winds are also confirmed by an ongoing Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance mission, which found 975 mb flight-level winds up to
56 kt, with SFMR winds also quite high in the same vicinity. Some of
these high winds are likely enhanced in part due to a barrier jet
offshore of the Sierra Madre mountains of Mexico. Because the system
is expected to become a tropical storm over the next day or so, and
tropical-storm-force winds are forecast to be near the coast of
Mexico within 48 hours, advisories are being initiated on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Six. The initial intensity is set to 45 kt for this
advisory based on a blend of scatterometer and aircraft data.

The initial motion is highly uncertain given the fact that a
well-defined center does not yet exist, but our best estimate is
320/4 kt. The track guidance shows this slow northwest drift
continuing, though the center could reform or redevelop anywhere
along the current trough axis as the center becomes better defined.
Afterwards, the system is expected to turn northward and then
north-northeastward as it rounds the periphery of a mid-level ridge
centered over Cuba. The track guidance this cycle shifted east, with
the GFS and ECMWF models notably on the east side of the guidance
envelope. The initial NHC track forecast won't go quite that far
east, but splits the difference between the consensus aid TVCN and
these eastward model solutions. Future adjustments could be
necessary if these eastward trends continue. Given the current
structure, the track forecast is of lower confidence than usual.

Given that the current circulation is quite elongated, it will
likely take a day or even longer for intensification to begin, and
much of the wind enhancement on its southwestern side is more of a
reflection of a barrier jet rather than the true intensity of the
stretched out vorticity maxima. Both the global model and
hurricane-regional model guidance suggest the circulation will
become well-defined by tomorrow afternoon, and the NHC intensity
forecast shows the system becoming a tropical storm by that time.
Until then, the intensity guidance, especially the
statistical-dynamical guidance SHIPS and LGEM, likely show too much
short-term intensification because these tools are designed for
tropical cyclones and not elongated troughs. The hurricane-regional
models HAFS-A/B seem to have a fairly realistic depiction of the
system's current structure, and show little intensification for the
next 36 h or so. Afterwards, as they depict the center becoming
well-defined with contracting wind radii, they show more significant
intensification. Between 48-72 h, PTC Six could interact with an
upper-level trough centered over Texas, and its intensity as it
approaches the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast will be governed by
its inner-core structure and if it undergoes a favorable trough
interaction. This initial forecast shows the system becoming a
hurricane just before landfall.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm on Monday as
it moves northwestward to northward near or along the western Gulf
of Mexico coast. Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for a
portion of northeastern Mexico and additional watches may be needed
for the southern Texas coast tonight.

2. The system is forecast to become a hurricane before it reaches
the northwestern Gulf Coast by the middle of the week. While it is
too soon to pinpoint the exact location and magnitude of impacts,
the potential for life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds
are increasing for portions of the Upper Texas and Louisiana
coastlines beginning Tuesday night. Hurricane and Storm Surge
Watches will likely be issued for a portion of that area on Monday,
and residents should ensure they have their hurricane plan in
place.

3. Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is expected to bring heavy
rainfall and the risk of flash flooding from the coast of far
northeast Mexico into portions of coastal Texas and Louisiana
through Thursday.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 21.6N 94.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 09/0600Z 22.3N 95.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 09/1800Z 23.2N 95.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 10/0600Z 24.3N 96.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 25.5N 96.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 11/0600Z 27.0N 95.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 29.0N 94.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 33.6N 91.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 13/1800Z 37.0N 89.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 082057
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
400 PM CDT Sun Sep 08 2024

...SYSTEM IN GULF OF MEXICO LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN BEGINNING ON
TUESDAY...
...INCREASING RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DAMAGING
WINDS ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS BY MID-WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 94.6W
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM S OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from
Barra del Tordo northward to the Mouth of the Rio Grande.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barra del Tordo northward to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

Interests along the Texas and Louisiana coastline should monitor
the progress of Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, and additional
watches or warnings could be required later tonight or tomorrow.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the elongated disturbance was centered
near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 94.6 West. The system is moving
toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and a slow northwestward
motion followed by a turn more northward is expected over the next
day or two. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to
move near the northern Gulf Coast of Mexico on Tuesday, and
approach the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastline on Wednesday.

Air Force reconnaissance data indicate that maximum sustained
winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. The system is
expected to become a tropical storm on Monday, with more
significant intensification forecast to occur on Tuesday. The
system is forecast to become a hurricane before it reaches the
northwestern U.S. Gulf Coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km),
primarily west of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area along the northern coast of Mexico beginning Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is expected to bring
storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12
inches, from the coast of far northeast Mexico northward along
portions of the Texas Coast and into Louisiana through Thursday.
This rainfall would lead to the risk of flash and urban flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero.

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible along the Mexico
coast within areas of onshore flow.

SURF: Swells generated by this system are affecting portions of the
Gulf coast of Mexico and are expected to spread northwestward across
the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coastline through midweek. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions . Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 082055
TCMAT1

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062024
2100 UTC SUN SEP 08 2024

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 94.6W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 140SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 240SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 94.6W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 94.5W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 22.3N 95.1W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 23.2N 95.7W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 80SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 24.3N 96.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 25.5N 96.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 27.0N 95.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 35SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 29.0N 94.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 33.6N 91.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 37.0N 89.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 94.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 09/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN