Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for GOMBE-22
in Madagascar

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 15.6S 35.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 35.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 16.2S 34.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 35.0E.
12MAR22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM
SOUTHEAST OF LILONGWE, MALAWI, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 120900
WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 220312082704
2022031206 19S GOMBE 013 01 250 06 SATL 060
T000 153S 0367E 030
T012 156S 0357E 030
T024 163S 0353E 030
T036 172S 0355E 030
T048 179S 0365E 030
T072 182S 0379E 035 R034 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD
T096 183S 0386E 040 R034 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T120 185S 0390E 045 R034 080 NE QD 150 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE) WARNING NR 013
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 15.3S 36.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 36.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 15.6S 35.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 16.3S 35.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 17.2S 35.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 17.9S 36.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
FORMATION AS TROPICAL CYCLONE LIKELY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 18.2S 37.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 18.3S 38.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 18.5S 39.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 36.4E.
12MAR22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 459
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z AND 130900Z.//
1922030412 160S 563E 15
1922030418 157S 554E 15
1922030500 156S 549E 15
1922030506 158S 544E 15
1922030512 160S 541E 20
1922030518 164S 544E 20
1922030600 163S 547E 25
1922030606 161S 545E 25
1922030612 160S 535E 25
1922030618 154S 529E 25
1922030700 152S 524E 25
1922030706 152S 521E 25
1922030712 155S 518E 30
1922030718 156S 513E 35
1922030800 155S 504E 35
1922030806 154S 494E 30
1922030812 150S 484E 30
1922030818 151S 476E 30
1922030900 149S 469E 45
1922030906 148S 461E 50
1922030912 150S 452E 55
1922030912 150S 452E 55
1922030918 153S 444E 55
1922030918 153S 444E 55
1922031000 154S 436E 60
1922031000 154S 436E 60
1922031006 156S 428E 65
1922031006 156S 428E 65
1922031006 156S 428E 65
1922031012 159S 421E 75
1922031012 159S 421E 75
1922031012 159S 421E 75
1922031018 157S 413E 80
1922031018 157S 413E 80
1922031018 157S 413E 80
1922031100 155S 406E 100
1922031100 155S 406E 100
1922031100 155S 406E 100
1922031106 152S 401E 80
1922031106 152S 401E 80
1922031106 152S 401E 80
1922031112 153S 393E 55
1922031112 153S 393E 55
1922031118 152S 384E 45
1922031200 151S 373E 35
1922031206 153S 367E 30
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 15.3S 36.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 36.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 15.6S 35.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 16.3S 35.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 17.2S 35.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 17.9S 36.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
FORMATION AS TROPICAL CYCLONE LIKELY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 18.2S 37.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 18.3S 38.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 18.5S 39.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 36.4E.
12MAR22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 459
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z AND 130900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 120716
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 26/9/20212022
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 9 (GOMBE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 12/03/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.4 S / 37.0 E
(QUINZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET TRENTE SEPT DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: NON RENSEIGNE
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 25 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: NON RENSEIGNE
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: NON RENSEIGNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 12/03/2022 18 UTC: 15.7 S / 36.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

24H: 13/03/2022 06 UTC: 16.0 S / 35.3 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

36H: 13/03/2022 18 UTC: 16.8 S / 35.1 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

48H: 14/03/2022 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 36.0 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

60H: 14/03/2022 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 37.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, ZONE
PERTURBEE

72H: 15/03/2022 06 UTC: 18.0 S / 37.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
PERTURBATION TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 16/03/2022 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 38.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

120H: 17/03/2022 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 36.8 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT,
DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=NEANT

LA LOCALISATION DE GOMBE RESTE TOUJOURS DELICATE MEME SUR LES
DERNIERSES DONNA ES MICRO-ONDE, ET SUR TERRE AVEC LE RELIEF EXISTANT
SUR LA ZONE DE TRANSIT DE GOMBE. TOUTEFOIS, LA TRAJECTOIRE SEMBLE SE
MAINTENIR EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST A OUEST SUD-OUEST A UNE
VITESSE DE 5KT. AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, L'ACTIVITE
CONVECTIVE S'EST BIEN EFFONDREE LAISSANT UNE PARTIE RESIDUELLE SUR LA
COTE ENTRE PENBA ET QUELIMANE, ET A L'OUEST DE LA VILLE DE QUELIMANE
JUSQU'AU SUD DU MALAWI.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT SUR LES COURTES ET MOYENNES ECHEANCES, LA
TRAJECTOIRE DE GOMBE RESTE PILOTEE A COURT TERME PAR LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AU SUD DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE,
DONNANT UN MOUVEMENT GENERAL VERS L'OUEST FAISANT PROGRESSER LA
DEPRESSION JUSQU'A PLUS DE 250KM A L'INTERIEUR DES TERRRES DU
MOZAMBIQUE.
DANS LE COURANT DU WEEK-END, LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE VA GLISSER
PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS L'EST LAISSANT AINSI UNE FAIBLESSE DANS LE CHAMP
DES HAUTS POTENTIELS AU SUD DE GOMBE, A L'APPROCHE D'UN TALWEG PLUS
AU SUD, ALORS QUE LA DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE A L'EST DU SYSTEME SE
RENFORCE. CETTE CONFIGURATION DEVRAIT RALENTIR PUIS INCURVER LA
TRAJECTOIRE DE GOMBE EN DIRECTION DU SUD, PUIS SUD-EST A PARTIR DE
DIMANCHE/LUNDI. SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, GOMBE POURRAIT RESSORTIR DANS
LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE A A CHA ANCE DE LUNDI/MARDI.

A PLUS LONGUE ECHEANCE, IL DEMEURE UNE GRANDE DISPERSION ENTRE LES
DIFFERENTS MODELES, ET AUSSI UNE FORTE INSTABILITE D'UN RUN A L'AUTRE
POUR LES MODELES DETERMINISTES. NEANMOINS, LES DERNIERS MODELES
DISPONIBLES RECONSTRUISENT PLUS OU MOINS RAPIDEMENT LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE AU SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME, REJETANT LE SYSTEME VERS L'EST
OU LE NORD-EST LE LONG DE LA COTE DANS UN PREMIER TEMPS.
AU DELA, EN FIN DE PERIODE, L'INCERTITUDE DE LA PREVISION RESTE
IMPORTANTE, MEME SI LE NOMBRE DE MEMBRES PROPOSANT UNE TRAJECTOIRE
VERS LE SUD EST EN DIMINUTION DANS LES MODELES ENSEMBLISTE AUSSI BIEN
D'IFS QUE GFS.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, GOMBE POURSUIT SON DEPLACEMENT SUR LES TERRES
DU MOZAMBIQUE AVEC UNE INTENSITE FAIBLE EN TERME DE VENT.
AU MOMENT DE LA RESSORTIE EN MER PREVUE LUNDI/MARDI, LES MODELES
ENSEMBLISTES NE PROPOSENT QUASIMENT PLUS DE RE-INTENSIFICATION
(QUELQUES MEMBRES MARGINAUX DE GFS SEULEMENT). L'OPTIQUE LA PLUS
VRAISEMBLABLE QUE SUIT LE CMRS EST UNE INTENSIFICATION LIMITEE PAR LA
PRESENCE D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE ET HAUTE TROPOSPHERE DANS
L'ENVIRONNEMENT DE GOMBE, LORS DE SON PASSAGE SUR LE CANAL, AVANT UN
NOUVEL ATTERRISAGE SUR LA COTE DU MOZAMBIQUE

EN TERMES D'IMPACTS POUR LE MOZAMBIQUE ET LE MALAWI:
- GOMBE GENERE ENCORE DES CONDITIONS METEOROLOGIQUES DEGRADEES AVEC
DES GRAINS FREQUENTS ET DE FORTS CUMULS DE PLUIES.
- SUR L'ENSEMBLE DE LA PERIODE, SOIT JUSQU'A LA RESSORTIE DE GOMBE
DANS LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, LES CUMULS
POURRAIENT ATTEINDRE LOCALEMENT ENTRE 150 ET 250 MM MAXIMUM ENTRE
MAMPULA ET BEIRA ET JUSQU'AUX REGIONS DU SUD DU MALAWI.

ETANT DONNE LA FAIBLE INTENSITE DE GOMBE SUR TERRE, NE PERMETTANT
PLUS UN SUIVI DU CENTRE, CE BULLETIN EST DE DERNIER SUR CE SYSTEME
SAUF RE-INTENSIFICATION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 120716
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 26/9/20212022
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 9 (GOMBE)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/12 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.4 S / 37.0 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: NIL
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): NIL
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: NIL

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/12 18 UTC: 15.7 S / 36.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

24H: 2022/03/13 06 UTC: 16.0 S / 35.3 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

36H: 2022/03/13 18 UTC: 16.8 S / 35.1 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2022/03/14 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 36.0 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2022/03/14 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 37.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER

72H: 2022/03/15 06 UTC: 18.0 S / 37.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/16 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 38.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

120H: 2022/03/17 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 36.8 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, FILLING
UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=NIL

THE LOCALIZATION OF GOMBE REMAINS ALWAYS DELICATE EVEN ON THE LAST
MICROWAVE DATA, AND ON EARTH WITH THE EXISTING RELIEF ON THE TRANSIT
ZONE OF GOMBE. HOWEVER, THE TRAJECTORY SEEMS TO BE MAINTAINED IN A
GENERAL WEST TO WEST SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AT A SPEED OF 5KT. DURING
THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS COLLAPSED WELL LEAVING
A RESIDUAL PART ON THE COAST BETWEEN PENBA AND QUELIMANE, AND WEST OF
THE CITY OF QUELIMANE TO THE SOUTH OF MALAWI.

NO CHANGE ON THE SHORT AND MEDIUM TERM, THE TRACK OF GOMBE REMAINS
DRIVEN IN THE SHORT TERM BY THE MID-TROPOSPHERE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, GIVING A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION
ADVANCING THE DEPRESSION TO MORE THAN 250KM INLAND FROM MOZAMBIQUE.
DURING THE WEEKEND, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE
EASTWARD LEAVING A WEAKNESS IN THE HIGH POTENTIAL FIELD SOUTH OF
GOMBE, APPROACHING A TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH, WHILE THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS. THIS CONFIGURATION SHOULD SLOW
DOWN AND THEN BEND GOMBE'S TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH, THEN SOUTHEAST
FROM SUNDAY/MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK, GOMBE COULD EMERGE IN THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL BY MONDAY/TUESDAY.

ON A LONGER TIME SCALE, THERE IS STILL A LARGE DISPERSION BETWEEN
THE DIFFERENT MODELS, AND ALSO A STRONG INSTABILITY FROM ONE RUN TO
ANOTHER FOR THE DETERMINIST MODELS. NEVERTHELESS, THE LATEST MODELS
AVAILABLE RECONSTRUCT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MORE OR LESS QUICKLY TO
THE SOUTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM, REJECTING THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE EAST
OR NORTH-EAST ALONG THE COAST AT FIRST.
BEYOND THAT, AT THE END OF THE PERIOD, THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE
FORECAST REMAINS IMPORTANT, EVEN IF THE NUMBER OF MEMBERS PROPOSING A
SOUTHWARD TRAJECTORY IS DECREASING IN THE ENSEMBLE MODELS OF BOTH IFS
AND GFS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, GOMBE CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND FROM MOZAMBIQUE
WITH LOW WIND INTENSITY.
BY THE TIME OF THE MONDAY/TUESDAY OUTFLOW, THE ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE
SHOWING ALMOST NO RE-INTENSIFICATION (ONLY A FEW MARGINAL MEMBERS OF
GFS). THE MOST LIKELY VIEW THAT THE RSMC FOLLOWS IS AN
INTENSIFICATION LIMITED BY THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER TROPOSPHERE IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF GOMBE, DURING ITS PASSAGE ON
THE CHANNEL, BEFORE A NEW LANDING ON THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE.

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS FOR MOZAMBIQUE AND MALAWI:
- GOMBE CONTINUED TO CAUSE DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH
FREQUENT SQUALLS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
- OVER THE ENTIRE PERIOD, UNTIL GOMBE EXITS THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL
EARLY NEXT WEEK, RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD REACH LOCALLY BETWEEN 150 AND
250 MM MAXIMUM BETWEEN MAMPULA AND BEIRA AND UP TO THE SOUTHERN PARTS
OF MALAWI.

GIVEN THE LOW INTENSITY OF GOMBE OVER LAND, NOT ALLOWING A FOLLOW-UP
OF THE CENTER, THIS WARNING IS THE LAST ONE ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS
RE-INTENSIFICATION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 120002
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 25/9/20212022
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 9 (GOMBE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 12/03/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.2 S / 38.2 E
(QUINZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET TRENTE HUIT DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1002 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 20 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 12/03/2022 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 37.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

24H: 13/03/2022 00 UTC: 16.0 S / 36.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

36H: 13/03/2022 12 UTC: 16.7 S / 37.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

48H: 14/03/2022 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 37.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

60H: 14/03/2022 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 38.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
PERTURBATION TROPICALE

72H: 15/03/2022 00 UTC: 19.0 S / 38.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SO: 0 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 16/03/2022 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SO: 0 NO: 0

120H: 17/03/2022 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 39.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SO: 110 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 75 NO: 75

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=NEANT

LA LOCALISATION DE GOMBE RESTE TOUJOURS DELICATE EN L'ABSENCE DE
MICRO-ONDE ET SUR TERRE AVEC LE RELIEF EXISTANT SUR LA ZONE DE
TRANSIT DE GOMBE. TOUTEFOIS, LA TRAJECTOIRE SEMBLE SE MAINTENIR VERS
L'OUEST A UNE VITESSE DE 5KT. AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES,
L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE S'EST BIEN EFFONDREE LAISSANT UNE PARTIE
RESIDUELLE SUR LA COTE AU NIVEAU DE LA VILLE DE QUELIMANE.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT SUR LES COURTES ET MOYENNES ECHEANCES, LA
TRAJECTOIRE DE GOMBE RESTE PILOTEE A COURT TERME PAR LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AU SUD DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE,
DONNANT UN MOUVEMENT GENERAL VERS L'OUEST FAISANT PROGRESSER LA
DEPRESSION JUSQU'A PLUS DE 250KM A L'INTERIEUR DES TERRRES DU
MOZAMBIQUE. DANS LE COURANT DU WEEK-END, LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE VA
GLISSER PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS L'OUEST LAISSANT AINSI UNE FAIBLESSE
DANS LE CHAMP DES HAUTS POTENTIELS AU SUD DE GOMBE ALORS QUE LA
DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE A L'EST DU SYSTEME SE RENFORCE. CETTE
CONFIGURATION DEVRAIT RALENTIR PUIS INCURVER LA TRAJECTOIRE DE GOMBE
EN DIRECTION DU SUD-SUD-EST A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE. SUR CETTE
TRAJECTOIRE, GOMBE RESSORTIRA DANS LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE A ECHEANCE
DE LUNDI POUR CONTINUER EN DIRECTION DE SUD-EST. A PLUS LONGUE
ECHEANCE, LES MODELES CONTINUE DE DIVERGER EN TERME DE RAPIDITE DE
DEPLACEMENT ET DE VIRAGE, MAIS LES RUNS RECENTS PRESENTENT UN
CONSENSUS SUR DES CENTRES D'ACTION CONTRADICTOIRE. AINSI A ECHEANCE
DE MARDI, SOUS L'EFFET CONTRADICTOIRE DE LA DORSALE
PROCHE-EQUATORIALE, DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD-EST DE
MADAGASCAR ET DU PASSAGE DU TALWEG PLUS AU SUD DU CANAL, GOMBE
DEVRAIT REALISER UN RALENTISSEMENT SUIVI D'UN REBROUSSEMENT EN
DIRECTION DU SUD-OUEST. L'AMPLEUR DE CE REBROUSSEMENT EST ASSEZ
VARAIBLE ENTRE LES MODELES ET DEVRA ETRE COMFIRME AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES PREVISIONS.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, GOMBE POURSUIT SON DEPLACEMENT SUR LES TERRES
DU MOZAMBIQUE AVEC UNE INTENSITE FAIBLE EN TERME DE VENT. AU MOMENT
DE LA RESSORTIE EN MER PREVUE LUNDI PROCHAIN, LES MODELES SONT
FORTEMENT DISPERSES CONCERNANT LA RE-INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME.
L'OPTIQUE LA PLUS VRAISEMBLABLE QUE SUIT LE CMRS EST UNE
INTENSIFICATION LIMITEE PAR LA PRESENCE D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE ET HAUTE
TROPOSPHERE DANS L'ENVIRONNEMENT DE GOMBE, DU MOINS JUSQU'A ECHEANCE
DE 4 JOURS, LES CONDITIONS S'AMELIORANT PAR LA SUITE LAISSANT UN
POTENTIEL D'INTENSIFICATION PLUS MARQUE A PLUS LONG TERME.

EN TERMES D'IMPACTS POUR LE MOZAMBIQUE ET LE MALAWI:
- GOMBE GENERE ENCORE DES CONDITIONS METEOROLOGIQUES DEGRADEES AVEC
DES GRAINS FREQUENTS ET DE FORTS CUMULS DE PLUIES.
- SUR L'ENSEMBLE DE LA PERIODE, SOIT JUSQU'A LA RESSORTIE DE GOMBE
DANS LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, LES CUMULS
POURRAIENT ATTEINDRE LOCALEMENT ENTRE 400 ET 600 MM MAXIMUM AU SUD DE
NAMPULA, SOIT PLUS DU DOUBLE DES PRECIPITATIONS HABITUELLES AU MOIS
DE MARS.
- MALAWI: LE SUD-EST DU MALAWI SERA CONCERNE A LA MARGE PAR LES
FORTES PLUIES AUTOUR DU CENTRE RESIDUEL DE GOMBE PRINCIPALEMENT
JUSQU'A SAMEDI, AVEC DE POSSIBLES CUMULS COMPRIS ENTRE 70 ET 100 MM
SUR L'EPISODE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 120002
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/9/20212022
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 9 (GOMBE)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/12 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.2 S / 38.2 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 20 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/12 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 37.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

24H: 2022/03/13 00 UTC: 16.0 S / 36.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

36H: 2022/03/13 12 UTC: 16.7 S / 37.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2022/03/14 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 37.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2022/03/14 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 38.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

72H: 2022/03/15 00 UTC: 19.0 S / 38.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/16 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 0

120H: 2022/03/17 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 39.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 110 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 75 NW: 75

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=NIL

THE LOCALIZATION OF GOMBE IS STILL DELICATE IN THE ABSENCE OF
MICROWAVE DATA AND ON LAND WITH THE RELIEF EXISTING ON THE TRANSIT
AREA OF GOMBE. HOWEVER, THE TRACK SEEMS TO BE MAINTAINED TOWARDS THE
WEST AT A SPEED OF 5KT. DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY HAS COLLAPSED WELL LEAVING A RESIDUAL PART ON THE COAST AT
THE LEVEL OF THE CITY OF QUELIMANE.

NO CHANGE ON THE SHORT AND MEDIUM TERM, GOMBE'S TRACK REMAINS DRIVEN
IN THE SHORT TERM BY THE MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH
OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, GIVING A GENERAL WESTERLY MOTION WITH THE
DEPRESSION ADVANCING TO MORE THAN 250KM INLAND FROM MOZAMBIQUE.
DURING THE WEEKEND, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL PROGRESSIVELY SLIDE
WESTWARD LEAVING A WEAKNESS IN THE HIGH POTENTIAL FIELD SOUTH OF
GOMBE WHILE THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS.
THIS CONFIGURATION SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND THEN CURVE THE TRACK OF GOMBE
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM SUNDAY. ON THIS TRACK, GOMBE WILL
RE-ENTER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL BY MONDAY AND CONTINUE IN A SOUTHEAST
DIRECTION. ON A LONGER TIME SCALE, THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE IN
TERMS OF SPEED OF MOVEMENT AND TURNING, BUT THE RECENT RUNS PRESENT A
CONSENSUS ON CONTRADICTORY CENTERS OF ACTION. THUS BY TUESDAY, UNDER
THE CONTRADICTORY EFFECT OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE, THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR AND THE PASSAGE OF THE
TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH OF THE CHANNEL, GOMBE SHOULD SLOW DOWN FOLLOWED
BY A TURN BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS REVERSAL
IS QUITE VARIABLE BETWEEN MODELS AND WILL HAVE TO BE CONFIRMED DURING
THE NEXT FORECAST.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, GOMBE CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND FROM MOZAMBIQUE
WITH LOW WIND INTENSITY. AT THE TIME OF NEXT MONDAY'S OUTING, THE
MODELS ARE HIGHLY DISPERSED CONCERNING THE RE-INTENSIFICATION OF THE
SYSTEM. THE MOST LIKELY VIEW THAT THE RSMC FOLLOWS IS AN
INTENSIFICATION LIMITED BY THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER TROPOSPHERE IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF GOMBE, AT LEAST UNTIL THE
NEXT 4 DAYS, THE CONDITIONS IMPROVING THEREAFTER LEAVING A POTENTIAL
FOR A MORE MARKED INTENSIFICATION IN THE LONGER TERM.

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS FOR MOZAMBIQUE AND MALAWI:
- GOMBE IS STILL GENERATING DEGRADED WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH FREQUENT
SQUALLS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
- OVER THE WHOLE PERIOD, THAT IS UNTIL THE RETURN OF GOMBE IN THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, THE ACCUMULATIONS
COULD REACH LOCALLY BETWEEN 400 AND 600 MM MAXIMUM SOUTH OF NAMPULA,
THAT IS TO SAY MORE THAN DOUBLE THE USUAL PRECIPITATIONS IN MARCH.
-MALAWI: SOUTHEASTERN MALAWI WILL BE MARGINALLY AFFECTED BY HEAVY
RAINS AROUND THE RESIDENTIAL CENTER OF GOMBE MAINLY UNTIL SATURDAY,
WITH POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 70 AND 100 MM OVER THE EPISODE.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 112100
WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 220311192708
2022031118 19S GOMBE 012 01 275 09 SATL 030
T000 152S 0384E 045
T012 153S 0373E 035 R034 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 157S 0364E 030
T036 163S 0361E 030
T048 170S 0363E 030
T072 183S 0376E 030
T096 187S 0380E 030
T120 191S 0383E 025
AMP
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 15.2S 38.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 15.3S 37.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 15.7S 36.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 16.3S 36.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 17.0S 36.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 18.3S 37.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 18.7S 38.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 19.1S 38.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 38.1E.
11MAR22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 139 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NACALA, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.VNEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z AND 122100Z.//
1922030412 160S 563E 15
1922030418 157S 554E 15
1922030500 156S 549E 15
1922030506 158S 544E 15
1922030512 160S 541E 20
1922030518 164S 544E 20
1922030600 163S 547E 25
1922030606 161S 545E 25
1922030612 160S 535E 25
1922030618 154S 529E 25
1922030700 152S 524E 25
1922030706 152S 521E 25
1922030712 155S 518E 30
1922030718 156S 513E 35
1922030800 155S 504E 35
1922030806 154S 494E 30
1922030812 150S 484E 30
1922030818 151S 476E 30
1922030900 149S 469E 45
1922030906 148S 461E 50
1922030912 150S 452E 55
1922030912 150S 452E 55
1922030918 153S 444E 55
1922030918 153S 444E 55
1922031000 154S 436E 60
1922031000 154S 436E 60
1922031006 156S 428E 65
1922031006 156S 428E 65
1922031006 156S 428E 65
1922031012 159S 421E 75
1922031012 159S 421E 75
1922031012 159S 421E 75
1922031018 157S 413E 80
1922031018 157S 413E 80
1922031018 157S 413E 80
1922031100 155S 406E 100
1922031100 155S 406E 100
1922031100 155S 406E 100
1922031106 152S 401E 80
1922031106 152S 401E 80
1922031106 152S 401E 80
1922031112 153S 393E 55
1922031112 153S 393E 55
1922031118 152S 384E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 15.2S 38.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 15.3S 37.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 15.7S 36.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 16.3S 36.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 17.0S 36.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 18.3S 37.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 18.7S 38.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 19.1S 38.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 38.1E.
11MAR22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 139 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NACALA, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.VNEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z AND 122100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 111832
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 24/9/20212022
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 9 (GOMBE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 11/03/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.1 S / 38.6 E
(QUINZE DEGRES UN SUD ET TRENTE HUIT DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 997 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 25 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 12/03/2022 06 UTC: 15.3 S / 37.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

24H: 12/03/2022 18 UTC: 15.6 S / 36.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

36H: 13/03/2022 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 36.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

48H: 13/03/2022 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 37.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

60H: 14/03/2022 06 UTC: 17.9 S / 37.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE
PERTURBEE

72H: 14/03/2022 18 UTC: 19.0 S / 38.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
PERTURBATION TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 15/03/2022 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 39.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SO: 0 NO: 0

120H: 16/03/2022 18 UTC: 20.7 S / 39.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 240 SO: 195 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 95

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=NEANT

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, GOMBE A POURSUIVI SA TRAJECTOIRE EN
DIRECTION DE L'OUEST TOUT EN S'AFFAIBLISSANT PROGRESSIVEMENT. LA
STRUCTURE EN BANDE S'EST MAINTENUE MAIS AVEC UNE INTENSITE DE
L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE BIEN REDUITE. ELLE RESTE NOTABLE PROCHE DU
CENTRE MAIS PLUS MARQUEE LOIN DU CENTRE DANS LA PARTIE SUD-OUEST ET
SUR LA COTE A L'EST DE NAMPULA. LA LOCALISATION DU CENTRE N'EST PAS
AISEE AVEC LA SEULE AIDE DES IMAGES INFRA-ROUGES ET EN L'ABSENCE DE
DONNEES MICRO-ONDE. CETTE LOCALISATION PERMET TOUTEFOIS D'ESTIMER LE
MAINTIEN DE LA DIRECTION ET DE LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT. LES
DERNIERES MESURES DE VENT DISPONIBLES DE 15KT A PLUS DE 50 KM DU
CENTRE PLAIDE POUR DES VENT MOYENS DE L'ORDRE DE 25KT, TOUT AU PLUS.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT SUR LES COURTES ET MOYENNES ECHEANCES, LA
TRAJECTOIRE DE GOMBE RESTE PILOTEE A COURT TERME PAR LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AU SUD DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE,
DONNANT UN MOUVEMENT GENERAL VERS L'OUEST FAISANT PROGRESSER LA
DEPRESSION JUSQU'A PLUS DE 250KM A L'INTERIEUR DES TERRRES DU
MOZAMBIQUE. DANS LE COURANT DU WEEK-END, LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE VA
GLISSER PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS L'OUEST LAISSANT AINSI UNE FAIBLESSE
DANS LE CHAMP DES HAUTS POTENTIELS AU SUD DE GOMBE ALORS QUE LA
DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE A L'EST DU SYSTEME SE RENFORCE. CETTE
CONFIGURATION DEVRAIT RALENTIR PUIS INCURVER LA TRAJECTOIRE DE GOMBE
EN DIRECTION DU SUD-SUD-EST A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE. SUR CETTE
TRAJECTOIRE, GOMBE RESSORTIRA DANS LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE A ECHEANCE
DE LUNDI POUR CONTINUER EN DIRECTION DE SUD-EST. A PLUS LONGUE
ECHEANCE, LES MODELES COMMENCENT A DIVERGER EN TERME DE RAPIDITE DE
DEPLACEMENT ET DE VIRAGE. LES RUNS RECENTS SEMBLENT OPTER POUR UN
RALENTISEMENT AVANT UN VIRAGE EN DIRECTION DU SUD VOIRE SUD-SUD-OUEST
EN COURS DE NUIT DE MARDI A MERCREDI. LA TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS OPTE
POUR CE SCENARIO D'UN VIRAGE A ECHEANCE DE 4 JOURS.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, GOMBE VA POURSUIVRE SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT SUR
LES TERRES DU MOZAMBIQUE POUR NE PRESENTER DES VENTS MOYENS DE
L'ORDRE DE 20KT AU COURS DE SON TRANSIT SUR TERRE. AU MOMENT DE LA
RESSORTIE EN MER PREVUE LUNDI PROCHAIN, LES MODELES SONT FORTEMENT
DISPERSES CONCERNANT LA RE-INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME. L'OPTIQUE LA
PLUS VRAISEMBLABLE QUE SUIT LE CMRS EST UNE INTENSIFICATION LIMITEE
PAR LA PRESENCE D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE ET HAUTE TROPOSPHERE DANS
L'ENVIRONNEMENT DE GOMBE.

EN TERMES D'IMPACTS POUR LE MOZAMBIQUE ET LE MALAWI:
- GOMBE GENERE ENCORE AU SEIN DE SA CIRCULATION, DES CONDITIONS
METEOROLOGIQUES DEGRADEES AVEC DES GRAINS FREQUENTS ET DE FORTS
CUMULS DE PLUIES.
- DES CUMULS DE 100 A 200 MM SONT ATTENDUS DANS LES PROCHAINES 24H
SUR LES PROVINCES DE NAMPULA ET ZAMBEZIA, ET LEURS BORDURES COTIERES.
SUR L'ENSEMBLE DE LA PERIODE, SOIT JUSQU'A LA RESSORTIE DE GOMBE DANS
LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, LES CUMULS
POURRAIENT ATTEINDRE LOCALEMENT ENTRE 400 ET 600 MM MAXIMUM SUR CES
DEUX PROVINCES, SOIT PLUS DU DOUBLE DES PRECIPITATIONS HABITUELLES AU
MOIS DE MARS.
-MALAWI: LE SUD-EST DU MALAWI SERA CONCERNE A LA MARGE PAR LES FORTES
PLUIES AUTOUR DU CENTRE RESIDUEL DE GOMBE PRINCIPALEMENT JUSQU'A
SAMEDI, AVEC DE POSSIBLES CUMULS COMPRIS ENTRE 70 ET 100 MM SUR
L'EPISODE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 111832
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 24/9/20212022
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 9 (GOMBE)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/11 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.1 S / 38.6 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/12 06 UTC: 15.3 S / 37.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

24H: 2022/03/12 18 UTC: 15.6 S / 36.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

36H: 2022/03/13 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 36.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2022/03/13 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 37.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2022/03/14 06 UTC: 17.9 S / 37.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER

72H: 2022/03/14 18 UTC: 19.0 S / 38.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/15 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 39.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 0

120H: 2022/03/16 18 UTC: 20.7 S / 39.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 240 SW: 195 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 95

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=NIL

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, GOMBE CONTINUED ITS WESTWARD TRACK WHILE
WEAKENING PROGRESSIVELY. THE BANDED STRUCTURE HAS BEEN MAINTAINED BUT
WITH A MUCH REDUCED INTENSITY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. IT REMAINS
NOTICEABLE NEAR THE CENTER BUT MORE MARKED FAR FROM THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN PART AND ON THE COAST EAST OF NAMPULA. THE LOCATION OF
THE CENTER IS NOT EASY WITH THE ONLY HELP OF INFRARED IMAGES AND IN
THE ABSENCE OF MICROWAVE DATA. HOWEVER, THIS LOCATION ALLOWS US TO
ESTIMATE THE MAINTENANCE OF THE DIRECTION AND SPEED OF MOVEMENT. THE
LAST AVAILABLE WIND MEASUREMENTS OF 15KT AT MORE THAN 50 KM FROM THE
CENTER PLEAD FOR AVERAGE WINDS OF THE ORDER OF 25KT, AT MOST.

NO CHANGE ON THE SHORT AND MEDIUM TERM, GOMBE'S TRACK REMAINS DRIVEN
IN THE SHORT TERM BY THE MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH
OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, GIVING A GENERAL WESTERLY MOTION WITH THE
DEPRESSION ADVANCING TO MORE THAN 250KM INLAND FROM MOZAMBIQUE.
DURING THE WEEKEND, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL PROGRESSIVELY SLIDE
WESTWARD LEAVING A WEAKNESS IN THE HIGH POTENTIAL FIELD SOUTH OF
GOMBE WHILE THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS.
THIS CONFIGURATION SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND THEN CURVE THE TRACK OF GOMBE
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM SUNDAY. ON THIS TRACK, GOMBE WILL
RE-ENTER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL BY MONDAY AND CONTINUE IN A SOUTHEAST
DIRECTION. ON LONGER TIME SCALES, MODELS ARE STARTING TO DIVERGE IN
TERMS OF SPEED OF MOVEMENT AND TURNING. THE RECENT RUNS SEEM TO OPT
FOR A SLOWING DOWN BEFORE A TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTH OR
SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST DURING THE NIGHT OF TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY. THE RSMC
TRACK OPTS FOR THIS 4 DAY TURN SCENARIO.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, GOMBE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE
MOZAMBIQUE LANDMASS TO ONLY AVERAGE WINDS OF ABOUT 20KT DURING ITS
TRANSIT OVER LAND. AT THE TIME OF THE EXIT AT SEA PLANNED NEXT
MONDAY, THE MODELS ARE STRONGLY DISPERSED CONCERNING THE
RE-INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. THE MOST LIKELY VIEW THAT THE RSMC
FOLLOWS IS AN INTENSIFICATION LIMITED BY THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IN
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TROPOSPHERE IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF GOMBE.

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS FOR MOZAMBIQUE AND MALAWI:
- GOMBE IS STILL GENERATING WITHIN ITS CIRCULATION, DEGRADED WEATHER
CONDITIONS WITH FREQUENT SQUALLS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
- ACCUMULATIONS OF 100 TO 200 MM ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
OVER THE PROVINCES OF NAMPULA AND ZAMBEZIA, AND THEIR COASTAL
BORDERS. OVER THE WHOLE PERIOD, THAT IS UNTIL THE RETURN OF GOMBE IN
THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, THE
ACCUMULATIONS COULD REACH LOCALLY BETWEEN 400 AND 600 MM MAXIMUM OVER
THESE TWO PROVINCES, THAT IS TO SAY MORE THAN DOUBLE THE USUAL
PRECIPITATIONS IN MARCH.
-MALAWI: SOUTHEASTERN MALAWI WILL BE MARGINALLY AFFECTED BY HEAVY
RAINS AROUND THE RESIDENTIAL CENTER OF GOMBE MAINLY UNTIL SATURDAY,
WITH POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 70 AND 100 MM OVER THE EPISODE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 111805
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 11/03/2022
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 023/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 11/03/2022 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: OVERLAND DEPRESSION 9 (GOMBE) 997 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.1 S / 38.6 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT.

CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 25KT IN THE SOUTH SEMI-CIRCLE
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/03/12 AT 06 UTC:
15.3 S / 37.7 E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

24H, VALID 2022/03/12 AT 18 UTC:
15.6 S / 36.9 E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
LAST WARNING BEFORE RESUMING MONITORING ON ARRIVAL AT SEA=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 111255
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 23/9/20212022
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 9 (GOMBE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 11/03/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.4 S / 39.1 E
(QUINZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET TRENTE NEUF DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 994 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SO: 205 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 12/03/2022 00 UTC: 15.3 S / 38.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

24H: 12/03/2022 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 37.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

36H: 13/03/2022 00 UTC: 15.9 S / 36.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

48H: 13/03/2022 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 36.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

60H: 14/03/2022 00 UTC: 17.7 S / 37.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE
PERTURBEE

72H: 14/03/2022 12 UTC: 18.6 S / 38.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SO: 0 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 15/03/2022 12 UTC: 19.9 S / 39.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 230 SO: 215 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SO: 130 NO: 100

120H: 16/03/2022 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 40.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SO: 270 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SO: 165 NO: 100

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
AU COURS DES DERNIERES HEURES, GOMBE A POURSUIVI SA TRAJECTOIRE EN
DIRECTION DE L'OUEST TOUT EN S'AFFAIBLISSANT PROGRESSIVEMENT. LA
CONVECTION A DISPARU AU SEIN DU SYSTEME ET RESTE LOCALISA E
ESSENTIELLEMENT EN MER. LES OBSERVATIONS DE NAMPULA DE 1000Z ONT
PERMIS NON SEULEMENT DE RECALER LA PRESSION CENTRALE DE GOMBE MAIS
EGALEMENT D'ESTIMER PLUS JUSTEMENT L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME. LES ASCATS
B ET C DE 0630Z ONT EGALEMENT PERMIS DE POINTER DU COUP DE VENT
RESIDUEL DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST.

LA TRAJECTOIRE DE GOMBE RESTE PILOTEE A COURT TERME PAR LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AU SUD DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE,
DONNANT UN MOUVEMENT GENERAL VERS L'OUEST, QUI VA SE POURSUIVRE
JUSQU'A SAMEDI, FAISANT PROGRESSER LA DEPRESSION SUR TERRE PUIS LOIN
DANS L'INTERIEUR DES TERRES DU MOZAMBIQUE. DANS LE COURANT DU
WEEK-END, LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE VA GLISSER PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS
L'OUEST LAISSANT AINSI UNE FAIBLESSE DANS LE CHAMP DES HAUTS
POTENTIELS AU SUD DE GOMBE. A CELA S'AJOUTE DANS LE MEME TEMPS
L'INCURSION D'UN CUT-OFF AU SUD-OUEST DU CANAL ET LE RENFORCEMENT DE
LA DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE A L'EST DU SYSTEME. CETTE CONFIGURATION
PARTICULIERE DEVRAIT RALENTIR LA COURSE DE GOMBE A PARTIR DE SAMEDI
PUIS INCURVER SA TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DU SUD-EST A PARTIR DE
DIMANCHE, L'AMENANT AINSI A RESSORTIR DANS LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE EN
TOUT DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE. CETTE INTERACTION COMPLEXE EN
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE EST APPREHENDEE DIFFEREMMENT SELON LES SORTIES
NUMERIQUES. L'INCERTITUDE AU NIVEAU DE LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE SE
REFLETE DONC EGALEMENT SUR LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE QUI EMPRUNTE
DES FLUX DIRECTEURS DIFFERENTS SUR LA FIN DE PERIODE. IL PERSISTE
AINSI LOGIQUEMENT UNE LARGE DISPERSION ENTRE LES MODELES ENSEMBLISTES
ET DETERMINISTES CONCERNANT LA CHRONOLOGIE DU VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-EST
CE WEEK-END ET L'ORIENTATION DE LA TRAJECTOIRE UNE FOIS LE SYSTEME
REPARTI EN MER. LA TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS EST BASEE SUR UN SCENARIO
MEDIAN.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, GOMBE VA POURSUIVRE SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT EN
PROGRESSANT DANS LES TERRES DU MOZAMBIQUE. AU MOMENT DE LA RESSORTIE
EN MER PREVUE LUNDI PROCHAIN, LES MODELES SONT FORTEMENT DISPERSES
CONCERNANT LA RE-INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME. UNE CIRCULATION TROP
LARGE ET LA PRESENCE D'UN CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPO DE SUD A
SUD-OUEST ADVECTANT DE L'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE EN BORDURE
OUEST DU SYSTEME, POURRAIENT ETRE DES FACTEURS LIMITANTS. LE MODELE
EUROPEEN SUGGERE AINSI UNE INTENSITE RESTANT FAIBLE. A CONTRARIO, LE
MODELE AMERICAIN GFS PERSISTE A MODELISER UNE INTENSIFICATION PLUS
FRANCHE. LA PRESENTE PREVISION SUIT UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES DIVERSES
MODELISATIONS DISPONIBLES

EN TERMES D'IMPACTS POUR LE MOZAMBIQUE ET LE MALAWI:
- GOMBE GA NA RE ENCORE AU SEIN DE SA CIRCULATION, DES CONDITIONS MA
TA OROLOGIQUES DA GRADA ES AVEC DES GRAINS FRA QUENTS, DE FORTS
CUMULS DE PLUIES, AINSI QUE DE NOMBREUSES RAFALES.
- LE VENT SOUFFLE ACTUELLEMENT EN RAFALES ENTRE 80 ET 100 KM/H SUR LA
PROVINCE DE NAMPULA ET SA FRANGE LITTORALE ET POURRA ATTEINDRE DES
POINTES JUSQU'A 140 KM/H. ELLES BAISSERONT EN INTENSITA ASSEZ
RAPIDEMENT AU COURS DU WEEK-END.
- DES CUMULS DE 100 A 200 MM SONT ATTENDUS DANS LES PROCHAINES 24H
SUR LES PROVINCES DE NAMPULA ET ZAMBEZIA, ET LEURS BORDURES CA TIA
RES. LOCALEMENT DES CUMULS PLUS IMPORTANTS ALLANT JUSQU'A 350 MM EN
24H SONT POSSIBLES. SUR L'ENSEMBLE DE LA PA RIODE, SOIT JUSQU'A LA
RESSORTIE DE GOMBE DANS LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE EN DA BUT DE SEMAINE
PROCHAINE, LES CUMULS POURRAIENT ATTEINDRE LOCALEMENT ENTRE 400 ET
600 MM MAXIMUM SUR CES DEUX PROVINCES.
- CERTAINES PORTIONS CA TIA RES DES PROVINCES DE NAMPULA ET ZAMBEZIA
RESTERONT AUJOURD'HUI, ENCORE IMPACTA ES PAR DES VAGUES D'UNE HAUTEUR
MOYENNE DE 4M, POUVANT ALLER JUSQU'A 8 M MAXIMUM POUR LES VAGUES LES
PLUS HAUTES.

-MALAWI: LE SUD-EST DU MALAWI SERA CONCERNE A LA MARGE PAR LES FORTES
PLUIES AUTOUR DU CENTRE RESIDUEL DE GOMBE PRINCIPALEMENT JUSQU'A
SAMEDI, AVEC DE POSSIBLES CUMULS COMPRIS ENTRE 70 ET 100 MM SUR L'A
PISODE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 111255
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 23/9/20212022
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 9 (GOMBE)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/11 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.4 S / 39.1 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 205 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/12 00 UTC: 15.3 S / 38.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

24H: 2022/03/12 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 37.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

36H: 2022/03/13 00 UTC: 15.9 S / 36.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2022/03/13 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 36.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2022/03/14 00 UTC: 17.7 S / 37.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER

72H: 2022/03/14 12 UTC: 18.6 S / 38.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/15 12 UTC: 19.9 S / 39.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 230 SW: 215 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 100

120H: 2022/03/16 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 40.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SW: 270 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 100

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS, GOMBE HAS CONTINUED ITS WESTWARD TRACK WHILE
WEAKENING PROGRESSIVELY. THE CONVECTION HAS DISAPPEARED WITHIN THE
SYSTEM AND REMAINS LOCALIZED MAINLY OFF-SHORE. THE 1000 UTC NAMPULA'S
OBSERVATIONS HAVE PERMITTED NOT ONLY TO RECALIBRATE THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE ASSEMENT OF GOMBE BUT ALSO TO ESTIMATE MORE PRECISELY THE
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. THE 0630 UTC ASCATS B AND C SWATHS HAVE ALSO
HELPED TO POINT OUT THE RESIDUAL GALE FORCE WIND IN THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT.

THE TRACK REMAINS DRIVEN IN THE SHORT TERM BY THE MID-TROPOSPHERE
RIDGE SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, GIVING A GENERAL WESTWARD
MOTION, WHICH WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SATURDAY, MOVING THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FAR INLAND. DURING THE WEEKEND, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
SLIDE PROGRESSIVELY WESTWARD LEAVING A WEAKNESS IN THE HIGH POTENTIAL
FIELD SOUTH OF GOMBE. IN ADDITION TO THIS, A CUT-OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF THE CHANNEL WILL BE INCURSED AND THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE
EAST OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE STRENGTHENED. THIS PARTICULAR PATTERN
SHOULD SLOW DOWN THE COURSE OF GOMBE FROM SATURDAY AND THEN TURNS ITS
TRAJECTORY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST FROM SUNDAY, LEADING IT TO EMERGE IN
THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AT THE VERY BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
COMPLEX INTERACTION IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE IS UNDERSTOOD DIFFERENTLY
ACCORDING TO THE NUMERICAL OUTPUTS. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS THEREFORE ALSO REFLECTED IN THE TRAJECTORY FORECAST,
WHICH TAKES DIFFERENT STEERING FLOWS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LOGICALLY, THERE IS STILL A WIDE DISPERSION BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLE AND
DETERMINIST MODELS CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THE TURN TOWARDS THE
SOUTH-EAST THIS WEEKEND AND THE ORIENTATION OF THE TRACK ONCE THE
SYSTEM IS BACK AT SEA. THE RSMC TRACK IS BASED ON A MEDIAN SCENARIO.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, GOMBE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
INLAND ON MOZAMBIQUE. AT THE TIME OF THE EXIT NEXT MONDAY, THE MODELS
ARE STRONGLY DISPERSED CONCERNING THE RE-INTENSIFICATION OF THE
SYSTEM. AN LARGE CIRCULATION AND THE PRESENCE OF A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR ADVECTING DRY
MID-TROPOSPHERE AIR ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM, COULD BE
LIMITING FACTORS. THE EUROPEAN MODEL SUGGESTS A LOW INTENSITY. ON THE
OTHER HAND, THE AMERICAN MODEL (GFS) PERSISTS IN MODELLING A MORE
PRONOUNCED INTENSIFICATION. THE PRESENT FORECAST FOLLOWS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE VARIOUS AVAILABLE MODELS

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS FOR MOZAMBIQUE AND MALAWI:
- GOMBE IS STILL GENERATING WITHIN ITS CIRCULATION, DEGRADED WEATHER
CONDITIONS WITH FREQUENT SQUALLS, HEAVY RAINFALL, AS WELL AS NUMEROUS
GUSTS.
- THE WIND IS CURRENTLY GUSTING BETWEEN 80 AND 100 KM/H OVER NAMPULA
PROVINCE AND ITS COASTAL FRINGE AND MAY PEAK AT 140 KM/H. THESE WINDS
WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY FAIRLY RAPIDLY OVER THE WEEKEND.
- ACCUMULATIONS OF 100 TO 200 MM ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
OVER THE PROVINCES OF NAMPULA AND ZAMBEZIA, AND THEIR COASTAL BANGS.
LOCALLY, HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 350 MM IN 24 HOURS ARE
POSSIBLE. OVER THE WHOLE PERIOD, I.E. UNTIL THE EXIT OF GOMBE IN THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, ACCUMULATIONS COULD
REACH LOCALLY BETWEEN 400 AND 600 MM MAXIMUM OVER THESE TWO
PROVINCES.
- SOME COASTAL PORTIONS OF NAMPULA AND ZAMBEZIA PROVINCES WILL REMAIN
TODAY, STILL IMPACTED BY WAVES OF AN AVERAGE HEIGHT OF 4M, WHICH CAN
GO UP TO 8M MAXIMUM FOR THE HIGHEST WAVES.

-MALAWI: SOUTHEASTERN MALAWI WILL BE MARGINALLY AFFECTED BY HEAVY
RAINS AROUND THE RESIDENTIAL CENTER OF GOMBE MAINLY UNTIL SATURDAY,
WITH POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 70 AND 100 MM OVER THE EPISODE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 111215
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 11/03/2022
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 022/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 11/03/2022 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: OVERLAND DEPRESSION 9 (GOMBE) 994 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.4 S / 39.1 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 220 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 310 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 55
NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 100 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/03/12 AT 00 UTC:
15.3 S / 38.2 E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

24H, VALID 2022/03/12 AT 12 UTC:
15.4 S / 37.4 E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
OVERLAND DEPRESSION.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 110900
WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 220311074404
2022031106 19S GOMBE 011 01 300 06 SATL 040
T000 152S 0401E 080
T012 150S 0390E 045
T024 150S 0379E 035
T036 155S 0371E 030
T048 161S 0369E 030
T072 180S 0378E 030
T096 190S 0390E 040 R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 065 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 196S 0395E 050 R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 065 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE) WARNING NR 011
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 15.2S 40.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 40.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 15.0S 39.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 15.0S 37.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 15.5S 37.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 16.1S 36.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 18.0S 37.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 19.0S 39.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 19.6S 39.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 39.8E.
11MAR22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420
NM NORTH OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z AND 120900Z.
//
1922030412 160S 563E 15
1922030418 157S 554E 15
1922030500 156S 549E 15
1922030506 158S 544E 15
1922030512 160S 541E 20
1922030518 164S 544E 20
1922030600 163S 547E 25
1922030606 161S 545E 25
1922030612 160S 535E 25
1922030618 154S 529E 25
1922030700 152S 524E 25
1922030706 152S 521E 25
1922030712 155S 518E 30
1922030718 156S 513E 35
1922030800 155S 504E 35
1922030806 154S 494E 30
1922030812 150S 484E 30
1922030818 151S 476E 30
1922030900 149S 469E 45
1922030906 148S 461E 50
1922030912 150S 452E 55
1922030912 150S 452E 55
1922030918 153S 444E 55
1922030918 153S 444E 55
1922031000 154S 436E 60
1922031000 154S 436E 60
1922031006 156S 428E 65
1922031006 156S 428E 65
1922031006 156S 428E 65
1922031012 159S 421E 75
1922031012 159S 421E 75
1922031012 159S 421E 75
1922031018 157S 413E 80
1922031018 157S 413E 80
1922031018 157S 413E 80
1922031100 155S 406E 100
1922031100 155S 406E 100
1922031100 155S 406E 100
1922031106 152S 401E 80
1922031106 152S 401E 80
1922031106 152S 401E 80
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 15.2S 40.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 40.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 15.0S 39.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 15.0S 37.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 15.5S 37.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 16.1S 36.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 18.0S 37.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 19.0S 39.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 19.6S 39.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 39.8E.
11MAR22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420
NM NORTH OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z AND 120900Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 110656
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 22/9/20212022
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 9 (GOMBE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 11/03/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.3 S / 40.1 E
(QUINZE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET QUARANTE DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 982 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SO: 205 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SO: 155 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 11/03/2022 18 UTC: 15.2 S / 38.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SO: 0 NO: 0

24H: 12/03/2022 06 UTC: 15.4 S / 37.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SO: 0 NO: 0

36H: 12/03/2022 18 UTC: 15.7 S / 37.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

48H: 13/03/2022 06 UTC: 16.3 S / 36.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

60H: 13/03/2022 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 37.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

72H: 14/03/2022 06 UTC: 18.1 S / 37.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, ZONE
PERTURBEE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SO: 0 NO: 95

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 15/03/2022 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 38.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 0 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 0 NO: 85

120H: 16/03/2022 06 UTC: 20.1 S / 39.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 150 SO: 0 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 0 NO: 95

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
APRES SON ATTERRISSAGE SUR LA PROVINCE DE NAMPULA, LA CONFIGURATION
DE GOMBE S'EST PASSABLEMENT DEGRADEE AVEC DES SOMMETS QUI SE SONT
RAPIDEMENT RECHAUFFES ET UNE STRUCTURE QUI S'EST LEGEREMENT
AGGRANDIE. LES PASSES DES SSMIS DE 0219 UTC ET 0106 UTC SUGGERENT UNE
STRUCTURE INTERNE ASSEZ ROBUSTE A L'EXCEPTION DU MUR OUEST DE L'OEIL
EN 85GHZ, PRESENTANT UNE SEVERE ERROSION DU A L'INTERACTION AVEC LES
TERRES. LA CONVECTION PRINCIPALE QUANT A ELLE, EST RELEGUEE AU LARGE
ET EST ASSOCIA E A UNE ACTIVITE ELECTRIQUE QUI RESTE MODEREE A FORTE.

LA TRAJECTOIRE DE GOMBE RESTE PILOTEE A COURT TERME PAR LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AU SUD DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE,
DONNANT UN MOUVEMENT GENERAL VERS L'OUEST, QUI VA SE POURSUIVRE
JUSQU'A SAMEDI, FAISANT PROGRESSER LE CYCLONE DANS LES TERRES DU
MOZAMBIQUE. EN COURS DE WEEK-END, SUITE A L'ELOIGNEMENT DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE VERS L'OUEST, A L'INCURSION D'UN CUT-OFF AU SUD DU
MOZAMBIQUE ET AU RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE AU
NORD-EST PUIS A L'EST, GOMBE DEVRAIT RALENTIR SA COURSE SAMEDI PUIS
INCURVER SA TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DU SUD-EST A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE,
L'AMENANT A RESSORTIR DANS LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE LUNDI. IL PERSISTE
TOUJOURS UNE LARGE DISPERSION ENTRE MODELES CONCERNANT LA CHRONOLOGIE
DU VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-EST CE WEEK-END ET L'ORIENTATION DE LA
TRAJECTOIRE UNE FOIS LE SYSTEME REPARTI EN MER. LA TRAJECTOIRE DU
CMRS EST BASEE SUR UN SCENARIO MEDIAN.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, GOMBE VA POURSUIVRE UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT RAPIDE
EN PROGRESSANT DANS LES TERRES DU MOZAMBIQUE. AU MOMENT DE LA
RESSORTIE EN MER PREVUE LUNDI PROCHAIN, LES MODELES SONT FORTEMENT
DISPERSES CONCERNANT LA RE-INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME. UNE
CIRCULATION TROP LARGE ET LA PRESENCE D'UN CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE
TROPO DE SUD A SUD-OUEST ADVECTANT DE L'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE EN BORDURE OUEST DU SYSTEME, POURRAIENT ETRE DES FACTEURS
LIMITANTS. LE MODELE EUROPEEN SUGGERE AINSI UNE INTENSITE RESTANT
FAIBLE. A CONTRARIO, GFS PERSISTE A MODELISER UNE INTENSIFICATION
PLUS FRANCHE. LA PRESENTE PREVISION SUIT UN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES
DIVERSES MODELISATIONS.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :
-MOZAMBIQUE: DES CONDITIONS EXTREMEMENT PERTURBEES ET DANGEREUSES
SONT ACTUELLEMENT EN COURS SUR LA PROVINCE DE NAMPULA ET SUR LE NORD
DE LA PROVINCE DE ZAMBEZIA, NON LOIN DE LA ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE DE
GOMBE. LES POPULATIONS DE LA ZONE SONT INVITEES A RESTER A L'ABRI ET
A SE CONFORMER AUX CONSIGNES DES AUTORITES.

VENTS: GOMBE GARDE ENCORE UN ASPECT COMPACT A COURT TERME. LES PLUS
FORTES RAFALES CONCERNERONT ESSENTIELLEMENT AUJOURD'HUI LA PROVINCE
DE NAMPULA ENTRE 90 ET 100 KM/H AVEC DES POINTES AVOISINANT LES 150
KM/H. LES RAFALES FAIBLISSENT PROGRESSIVEMENT A MESURE DE L'EVOLUTION
DE GOMBE DANS L'INTERIEUR DES TERRES.

PLUIES: DES CUMULS DE 100-200 MM SONT ATTENDUS EN 24H LE LONG DE LA
TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME JUSQU'A LA RESSORTIE EN MER, ET LOCALEMENT 200
A 250 MM EN 24H AU NORD IMMEDIAT DE LA ZONE D'ATTERRISAGE. SUR
L'ENSEMBLE DE L'EPISODE DES CUMULS LOCALISES DEPASSANT LES 400 MM
SONT POSSIBLES SUR LA PROVINCE DE ZAMBEZIA.

MER: DES VAGUES DE 6 A 12 METRES SONT ENCORE POSSIBLES AUJOURD'HUI
SUR CERTAINES PORTIONS COTIA RES DES PROVINCES DE NAMPULA ET
ZAMBEZIA, AVEC UNE SURCOTE DE L'ORDRE DE 1 A 2 METRES AU SUD DE LA
ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE.

-MALAWI: LE SUD-EST DU MALAWI SERA CONCERNE A LA MARGE PAR LES FORTES
PLUIES AUTOUR DU CENTRE RESIDUEL DE GOMBE PRINCIPALEMENT JUSQU'A
SAMEDI, AVEC DE POSSIBLES CUMULS COMPRIS ENTRE 70 ET 100 MM SUR L'A
PISODE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 110656
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/9/20212022
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 9 (GOMBE)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/11 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.3 S / 40.1 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SW: 205 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/11 18 UTC: 15.2 S / 38.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2022/03/12 06 UTC: 15.4 S / 37.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0

36H: 2022/03/12 18 UTC: 15.7 S / 37.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2022/03/13 06 UTC: 16.3 S / 36.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2022/03/13 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 37.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

72H: 2022/03/14 06 UTC: 18.1 S / 37.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SW: 0 NW: 95

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/15 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 38.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 0 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 0 NW: 85

120H: 2022/03/16 06 UTC: 20.1 S / 39.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 150 SW: 0 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 0 NW: 95

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
AFTER ITS LANDING OVER NAMPULA PROVINCE (MOZAMBIQUE), GOMBE'S CLOUD
PATTERN HAS DECAYED QUITE A BIT WITH RAPIDLY WARMING TOPS AND A
SLIGHTLY ENLARGED ITS STRUCTURE. THE 0219 UTC AND 0106 UTC SSMIS
SWATHS SUGGEST A FAIRLY ROBUST INTERNAL STRUCTURE EXCEPT FOR THE
WESTERN EYE WALL GIVEN THE 85GHZ MICROWAVE, SHOWING SEVERE EROSION
DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE LAND. THE MAIN CONVECTION IS OFF-SHORE
AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

GOMBE'S TRACK REMAINS DRIVEN IN THE SHORT TERM BY THE MID-TROPOSPHERE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, GIVING A GENERAL
WESTWARD MOTION, WHICH WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SATURDAY, MOVING THE
CYCLONE TRACK INLAND OVER MOZAMBIQUE. OVER THE WEEKEND, AS A RESULT
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MOVING WESTWARD, THE INCURSION OF A CUT-OFF
SOUTH OF MOZAMBIQUE AND THE STRENGTHENING OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND THEN TO THE EAST, GOMBE IS EXPECTED TO
SLOW DOWN ON SATURDAY AND THEN CURVE ITS TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
SUNDAY, LEADING IT TO EXIT THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL ON MONDAY. THERE IS
STILL A LARGE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODELS CONCERNING THE TIMING OF
THE TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND AND THE ORIENTATION OF THE
TRACK ONCE THE SYSTEM IS BACK AT SEA. THE RSMC TRACK IS BASED ON A
MEDIAN SCENARIO.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, GOMBE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT
MOVES INLAND OVER MOZAMBIQUE. AT THE TIME OF THE EXIT NEXT MONDAY,
THE MODELS ARE STRONGLY DISPERSED CONCERNING THE RE-INTENSIFICATION
OF THE SYSTEM. A LARGE CIRCULATION AND THE PRESENCE OF A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR BRINGING DRY MID-TROPOSPHERE ALOFT AT
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM, COULD BE LIMITING FACTORS. THE
EUROPEAN MODEL SUGGESTS A LOW INTENSITY. ON THE OTHER HAND, GFS
PERSISTS IN MODELLING A MORE PRONOUNCED INTENSIFICATION. THE PRESENT
FORECAST FOLLOWS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :
-MOZAMBIQUE: EXTREMELY DISTURBED AND HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE
CURRENTLY UNDERWAY OVER NAMPULA PROVINCE AND NORTHERN ZAMBEZIA
PROVINCE, NOT FAR FROM THE GOMBE LANDING ZONE. PEOPLE IN THE AREA ARE
ADVISED TO REMAIN UNDER SHELTER AND TO FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS OF THE
AUTHORITIES.

WINDS: GOMBE IS STILL COMPACT IN THE SHORT TERM. THE STRONGEST GUSTS
WILL BE TODAY MAINLY IN NAMPULA PROVINCE BETWEEN 90 AND 100 KM/H WITH
PEAKS AROUND 150 KM/H. THE GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS GOMBE MOVES
INLAND.

RAINS: 24 HOURS ACCUMULATIONS OF 100-200 MM ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
SYSTEM'S TRACK UNTIL IT EXITS THE SEA, AND LOCALLY 24 HOURS
ACCUMULATIONS OF 200 TO 250 MM IN IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE LANDING
ZONE. OVER THE WHOLE EPISODE, LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS EXCEEDING 400
MM ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE PROVINCE OF ZAMBEZIA.

SEA: WAVES OF 6 TO 12 METERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE TODAY ON SOME COASTAL
PARTS OF NAMPULA AND ZAMBEZIA PROVINCES, WITH A STORM SURGE OF ABOUT
1 TO 2 METERS SOUTH OF THE LANDING AREA.

-MALAWI: SOUTHEASTERN MALAWI WILL BE MARGINALLY AFFECTED BY HEAVY
RAINS AROUND THE GOMBE'S REMNANT CENTER MAINLY UNTIL SATURDAY, WITH
POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 70 AND 100 MM DURING THE EPISODE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 110618
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 11/03/2022
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 021/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 11/03/2022 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: OVERLAND DEPRESSION 9 (GOMBE) 982 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.3 S / 40.1 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 170 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
50 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 40
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 85 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/03/11 AT 18 UTC:
15.2 S / 38.7 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2022/03/12 AT 06 UTC:
15.4 S / 37.6 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
OVERLAND DEPRESSION.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 110300
WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 220311020815
2022031100 19S GOMBE 010 01 295 07 SATL 020
T000 155S 0407E 100
T012 152S 0394E 060 R050 000 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 030 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 020 NW QD
T024 152S 0383E 035
T036 153S 0375E 030
T048 157S 0369E 030
T072 174S 0375E 030
T096 187S 0386E 035 R034 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 055 SW QD 040 NW QD
T120 195S 0395E 050 R050 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 15.5S 40.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 40.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 15.2S 39.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 15.2S 38.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 15.3S 37.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 15.7S 36.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 17.4S 37.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 18.7S 38.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 19.5S 39.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 40.4E.
11MAR22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 403
NM NORTH OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 111500Z AND 120300Z.
//
1922030412 160S 563E 15
1922030418 157S 554E 15
1922030500 156S 549E 15
1922030506 158S 544E 15
1922030512 160S 541E 20
1922030518 164S 544E 20
1922030600 163S 547E 25
1922030606 161S 545E 25
1922030612 160S 535E 25
1922030618 154S 529E 25
1922030700 152S 524E 25
1922030706 152S 521E 25
1922030712 155S 518E 30
1922030718 156S 513E 35
1922030800 155S 504E 35
1922030806 154S 494E 30
1922030812 150S 484E 30
1922030818 151S 476E 30
1922030900 149S 469E 45
1922030906 148S 461E 50
1922030912 150S 452E 55
1922030912 150S 452E 55
1922030918 153S 444E 55
1922030918 153S 444E 55
1922031000 154S 436E 60
1922031000 154S 436E 60
1922031006 156S 428E 65
1922031006 156S 428E 65
1922031006 156S 428E 65
1922031012 159S 421E 75
1922031012 159S 421E 75
1922031012 159S 421E 75
1922031018 158S 414E 80
1922031018 158S 414E 80
1922031018 158S 414E 80
1922031100 155S 407E 100
1922031100 155S 407E 100
1922031100 155S 407E 100
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 15.5S 40.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 40.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 15.2S 39.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 15.2S 38.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 15.3S 37.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 15.7S 36.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 17.4S 37.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 18.7S 38.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 19.5S 39.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 40.4E.
11MAR22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 403
NM NORTH OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 111500Z AND 120300Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 110039
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 21/9/20212022
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 9 (GOMBE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 11/03/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.5 S / 40.7 E
(QUINZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUARANTE DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/D 1.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 960 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 26 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SO: 185 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 70 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 11/03/2022 12 UTC: 15.3 S / 39.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 185 SO: 95 NO: 55
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 130 SO: 55 NO: 0

24H: 12/03/2022 00 UTC: 15.1 S / 37.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

36H: 12/03/2022 12 UTC: 15.2 S / 37.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

48H: 13/03/2022 00 UTC: 15.7 S / 36.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

60H: 13/03/2022 12 UTC: 16.5 S / 37.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

72H: 14/03/2022 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 37.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE
PERTURBEE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 15/03/2022 00 UTC: 19.3 S / 39.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 325 SO: 270 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 205 SO: 165 NO: 100

120H: 16/03/2022 00 UTC: 20.3 S / 40.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 345 SO: 285 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SO: 185 NO: 100

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5

AU COURS DES DERNIERES HEURES, LA STRUCTURE NUAGEUSE DE GOMBE EST
PASSEE D'UN CDO A UNE CONFIGURATION EN OEIL QUI EST APPARUE VERS
21UTC. LE CYCLONE A CONNU UN MOUVEMENT TEMPORAIRE VERS LE NORD-OUEST
EN ACCELERANT UN PEU AU MOMENT DE L'APPARITION DE L'OEIL, CONDUISANT
A UNE POINT DE 00UTC UN PEU PLUS AU NORD ET PLUS PRES DES COTES
QU'INITIALEMENT PREVU. L'ANALYSE DVORAK EN OEIL MOYENNEE SUR LES 3
DERNIERES HEURES DONNE UN DT DE 5.5. L'INTENSITE EST DONC ESTIMEE A
90KT A 00UTC, FAISANT DONC PASSER GOMBE AU STADE MINIMAL DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE, FAISANT DONC SUITE A UN PROCESSUS D'INTENSIFICATION
RAPIDE, JUSTE AVANT UN ATTERRISSAGE MAJEUR SUR LES TERRES DU
MOZAMBIQUE ESTIME VERS 0030UTC (02H30 DU MATIN, HEURE DU MOZAMBIQUE)
SUR LA PROVINCE DE NAMPULA, A ENVIRON 50 KM AU SUD DE L'ILE DE
MOZAMBIQUE ET 100 KM AU NORD-EST D'ANGOCHE, A PROXIMITE DES LOCALITES
DE MOGINCUAL ET TERRENE.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT DANS LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE. LA TRAJECTOIRE DE
GOMBE EST PILOTEE A COURT TERME PAR LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AU SUD DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE, DONNANT UN
MOUVEMENT GENERAL VERS L'OUEST, QUI VA SE POURSUIVRE CE VENDREDI,
FAISANT PROGRESSER LE CYCLONE DANS LES TERRES DU MOZAMBIQUE. EN COURS
DE WEEK-END, SUITE A L'ELOIGNEMENT DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE, A
L'INCURSION D'UN CUT-OFF AU SUD DU MOZAMBIQUE ET AU RENFORCEMENT DE
LA DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST PUIS A L'EST, GOMBE
DEVRAIT RALENTIR SA COURSE SAMEDI PUIS INCURVER SA TRAJECTOIRE EN
DIRECTION DU SUD-EST A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, L'AMENANT A RESSORTIR DANS
LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE LUNDI. IL EXISTE UNE FORTE DISPERSION ENTRE
MODELES CONCERNANT LA CHRONOLOGIE DU VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-EST CE
WEEK-END ET L'ORIENTATION DE LA TRAJECTOIRE UNE FOIS LE SYSTEME
REPARTI EN MER. LA TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS EST BASEE SUR UN SCENARIO
MEDIAN.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, EN QUITTANT LES EAUX CHAUDES DU CANAL DU
MOZAMBIQUE, GOMBE VA CLASSIQUEMENT CONNAITRE UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT
RAPIDE EN PROGRESSANT DANS LES TERRES DU MOZAMBIQUE. AU MOMENT DE LA
RESSORTIE EN MER PREVUE LUNDI PROCHAIN, LES MODELES SONT FORTEMENT
DISPERSES CONCERNANT LA RE-INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME. UNE
CIRCULATION TROP LARGE ET LA PRESENCE D'UN CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST
ADVECTANT DE L'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE POURRAIENT ETRE DES
FACTEURS LIMITANTS. LE MODELE EUROPEEN SUGGERE AINSI UNE INTENSITE
RESTANT FAIBLE. EN REVANCHE, GFS PERSISTE A MODELISER UNE
INTENSIFICATION PLUS FRANCHE. LA PRESENTE PREVISION SUIT UN COMPROMIS
ENTRE LES DIVERSES MODELISATIONS.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :
-MOZAMBIQUE: L'ATTERRISSAGE DU CYCLONE EST EN COURS SUR LA PROVINCE
DE NAMPULA, S'ACCOMPAGNANT DE CONDITIONS EXTREMEMENT PERTURBEES ET
DANGEREUSES. LES POPULATIONS DE LA ZONE SONT INVITEES A SE METTRE A
L'ABRI ET A SE CONFORMER AUX CONSIGNES DES AUTORITES.
VENTS: GOMBE EST UN CYCLONE COMPACT, LES PLUS FORTES RAFALES NE
CONCERNENT QUE LE VOISINAGE IMMEDIAT DE LA ZONE ATTERRISSAGE (50KM
AUTOUR) MAIS POURRAIENT AVOISINER OU DEPASSER LES 200 KM/H.
PLUIES: DES CUMULS DE 100-200 MM SONT ATTENDUS EN 24H LE LONG DE LA
TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME JUSQU'A LA RESSORTIE EN MER, ET LOCALEMENT 200
A 300 MM EN 24H AU NORD IMMEDIAT DE LA ZONE D'ATTERRISAGE. SUR
L'ENSEMBLE DE L'EPISODE, DES CUMULS LOCALISES DEPASSANT LES 400MM
SONT POSSIBLES SUR LA PROVINCE DE NAMPULA.
MER: DES VAGUES DE 6 A 10 METRES SONT PROBABLES SUR CERTAINES
PORTIONS DES COTES DE LA PROVINCE, AVEC UNE SURCOTE DE L'ORDRE DE 1 A
2 METRES AU SUD DE LA TRAJECTOIRE.
-MALAWI: LE SUD DU MALAWI SERA CONCERNE A LA MARGE PAR LES FORTES
PLUIES AUTOUR DU CENTRE RESIDUEL DE GOMBE SAMEDI ET DIMANCHE, AVEC DE
POSSIBLES CUMULS DEPASSANT LES 100 MM.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 110039
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/9/20212022
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GOMBE)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/11 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.5 S / 40.7 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 1.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 26 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SW: 185 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 70 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/11 12 UTC: 15.3 S / 39.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 185 SW: 95 NW: 55
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 130 SW: 55 NW: 0

24H: 2022/03/12 00 UTC: 15.1 S / 37.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

36H: 2022/03/12 12 UTC: 15.2 S / 37.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2022/03/13 00 UTC: 15.7 S / 36.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2022/03/13 12 UTC: 16.5 S / 37.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

72H: 2022/03/14 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 37.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/15 00 UTC: 19.3 S / 39.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 325 SW: 270 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 100

120H: 2022/03/16 00 UTC: 20.3 S / 40.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 345 SW: 285 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 100

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5

IN THE RECENT HOURS, GOMBE'S CLOUD STRUCTURE HAS EVOLVED FROM A CDO
PATTERN TO AN EYE PATTERN WHICH APPEARED AROUND 21Z. DURING THIS
PERIOD, THE CYCLONE UNDERWENT A TEMPORARY NORTHWESTWARD ACCELERATED
SHIFT, BRINGING IT A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON AN EYE PATTERN AVERAGED
OVER THE 3 LAST HOURS GIVES A DT OF 5.5. THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY IS
THUS ESTIMATED TO BE 90KT AT 00Z, MAKING GOMBE REACH THE LOWEST STAGE
OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS FOLLOWING A RAPID INTENSIFICATION
PHASE WHICH OCCURRED JUST BEFORE A MAJOR LANDFALL WHICH IS NOW TAKING
PLACE AROUND 0030Z (02.30 AM, MOZAMBIQUE TIME) OVER THE PROVINCE OF
NAMPULA, ABOUT 50 KM SOUTH OF THE ISLAND OF MOZAMBIQUE AND 100 KM
NORTH-EAST OF ANGOCHE, NEAR TOWNS OF MOGINCUAL OR TERRENE.

NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. GOMBE'S TRACK IS STILL DRIVEN BY THE
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, GIVING A
GENERAL WESTWARD MOVEMENT THIS FRIDAY, MAKING THE CYCLONE TRACK
INLAND OVER MOZAMBIQUE. DURING THE WEEKEND, AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
RECEDES, A MID-LEVEL CUT-OFF SLIDES TO THE SOUTH OF MOZAMBIQUE AND
THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST THEN EAST OF THE SYSTEM
STRENGTHENS, GOMBE SHOULD SLOW ITS MOVEMENT ON SATURDAY AND THEN TURN
SOUTHEASTWARDS FROM SUNDAY, WHICH SHOULD MAKE IT MOVE BACK INTO THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL FROM MONDAY ONWARDS. THERE IS HIGH DISPERSION
AMONG AVAILABLE GUIDANCE ABOUT THE TIMING OF GOMBE'S SOUTHEASTWARD
TURN OVERLAND AND ITS TRACK OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AFTER THAT.
THE RSMC'S FORECAST TRACK IS THUS BASED ON A MEDIAN SCENARIO.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, WHILE LEAVING THE WARM MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL
WATERS, GOMBE WILL EXPERIENCE CLASSIC FAST WEAKENING THIS FRIDAY AS
IT TRACKS OVER LAND. WHEN THE SYSTEM EMERGES BACK OUT TO SEA NEXT
MONDAY, THERE IS AN IMPORTANT UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW MUCH IT COULD
RE-INTENSIFY. A TOO BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND INCREASING
NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR DRIVING MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION COULD BE
LIMITING FACTORS. THE ECMWF MODEL SUGGESTS VERY LIMITED INTENSITY
(WEAK TROPICAL STORM) WHEREAS THE GFS MODEL PERSISTS WITH A MORE
FRANK INTENSIFICATION. THE RSMC FORECAST FOLLOWS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :
-MOZAMBIQUE: THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE
NAMPULA PROVINCE, WITH EXTREMELY DISTURBED AND DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.
PEOPLE IN THE AREA ARE ADVISED TO TAKE SHELTER AND FOLLOW THE
INSTRUCTIONS OF AUTHORITIES.
WINDS: GOMBE IS A COMPACT CYCLONE, THE STRONGEST GUSTS ARE ONLY IN
THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE LANDFALL AREA (50KM AROUND) BUT COULD
APPROACH OR EXCEED 200 KM/H.
RAINFALL: 24-HOUR ACCUMULATIONS OF 100-200 MM ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
SYSTEM'S TRACK UNTIL IT EXITS BACK TO SEA, AND LOCALLY 200-300 MM TO
THE IMMEDIATE NORTH OF THE LANDFALL AREA. OVER THE WHOLE EPISODE,
LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS EXCEEDING 400MM ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE PROVINCE OF
NAMPULA.
SEA : WAVES OF 6 TO 10 METERS ARE LIKELY ON SOME PARTS OF THE
PROVINCE'S COASTS, WITH A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 2 METERS SOUTH OF THE
TRAJECTORY.
-MALAWI: SOUTHERN MALAWI WILL BE MARGINALLY AFFECTED BY HEAVY
RAINFALL AS GOMBE'S REMNANT CENTER TRACKS NEARBY ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY, WITH POSSIBLE TOTALS EXCEEDING 100 MM.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 110010
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 11/03/2022
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 020/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 11/03/2022 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GOMBE) 960 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.5 S / 40.7 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANTS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 30 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 110 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/03/11 AT 12 UTC:
15.3 S / 39.2 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 30 NM
34 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2022/03/12 AT 00 UTC:
15.1 S / 37.9 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 102100
WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 220310200322
2022031018 19S GOMBE 009 01 270 07 SATL 020
T000 159S 0414E 080
T012 158S 0399E 080 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 156S 0387E 050
T036 156S 0378E 035
T048 160S 0372E 030
T072 173S 0375E 030
T096 188S 0386E 035 R034 065 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 201S 0397E 045 R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 15.9S 41.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 41.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 15.8S 39.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 15.6S 38.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 15.6S 37.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 16.0S 37.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 17.3S 37.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 18.8S 38.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 20.1S 39.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 41.0E.
10MAR22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 384
NM NORTH OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 110300Z, 110900Z, 111500Z AND 112100Z.
//
1922030412 160S 563E 15
1922030418 157S 554E 15
1922030500 156S 549E 15
1922030506 158S 544E 15
1922030512 160S 541E 20
1922030518 164S 544E 20
1922030600 163S 547E 25
1922030606 161S 545E 25
1922030612 160S 535E 25
1922030618 154S 529E 25
1922030700 152S 524E 25
1922030706 152S 521E 25
1922030712 155S 518E 30
1922030718 156S 513E 35
1922030800 155S 504E 35
1922030806 154S 494E 30
1922030812 150S 484E 30
1922030818 151S 476E 30
1922030900 149S 469E 45
1922030906 148S 461E 50
1922030912 150S 452E 55
1922030912 150S 452E 55
1922030918 153S 444E 55
1922030918 153S 444E 55
1922031000 154S 436E 60
1922031000 154S 436E 60
1922031006 156S 428E 65
1922031006 156S 428E 65
1922031006 156S 428E 65
1922031012 159S 421E 75
1922031012 159S 421E 75
1922031012 159S 421E 75
1922031018 159S 414E 80
1922031018 159S 414E 80
1922031018 159S 414E 80
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 15.9S 41.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 41.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 15.8S 39.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 15.6S 38.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 15.6S 37.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 16.0S 37.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 17.3S 37.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 18.8S 38.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 20.1S 39.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 41.0E.
10MAR22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 384
NM NORTH OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 110300Z, 110900Z, 111500Z AND 112100Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 101835
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 20/9/20212022
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 9 (GOMBE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 10/03/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.7 S / 41.4 E
(QUINZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUARANTE UN DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 971 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 75 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SO: 165 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 70 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 11/03/2022 06 UTC: 15.5 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SO: 205 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SO: 165 NO: 35
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 0

24H: 11/03/2022 18 UTC: 15.3 S / 38.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SO: 100 NO: 0

36H: 12/03/2022 06 UTC: 15.2 S / 37.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

48H: 12/03/2022 18 UTC: 15.3 S / 37.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

60H: 13/03/2022 06 UTC: 15.9 S / 36.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

72H: 13/03/2022 18 UTC: 16.8 S / 37.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 14/03/2022 18 UTC: 18.4 S / 38.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, ZONE
PERTURBEE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 140 SO: 0 NO: 140

120H: 15/03/2022 18 UTC: 20.4 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 140 SO: 0 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SO: 0 NO: 95

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.0-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE GOMBE A
CONTINUE A S'AMELIORER AVEC UNE CONVECTION TRES VIGOUREUSE (SOMMETS
NUAGEUX A -85/-90C SUR L'IMAGERIE SATELLITAIRE IR) ET UNE STRUCTURE
EN CDO DEVENANT PLUS SYMETRIQUE. L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDES SSMIS DE 1534Z
MONTRE UN ANNEAU CONVECTIF CENTRAL MIEUX CONSOLIDE QUE PRECEDEMMENT.
UNE PASSE SMAP PARTIELLE A 1511Z MONTRE DES VENTS DE 65KT, MAIS
L'AMELIORATION AU COURS DES DERNIERES HEURES SUGGERE UNE
INTENSIFICATION RECENTE DU SYSTEME. AVEC UNE ANALYSE DVORAK
SUBJECTIVE ENTRE 4.5 ET 5.0, L'INTENSITE EST ESTIMEE A 75KT A 18UTC.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT DANS LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE. LA TRAJECTOIRE DE
GOMBE EST PILOTEE PRINCIPALEMENT PAR LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AU SUD DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE, DONNANT UN
MOUVEMENT GENERAL VERS L'OUEST, D'OU UN ATTERRISSAGE PREVU SUR LA
COTE EST DU MOZAMBIQUE EN FIN DE NUIT PROCHAINE AU NORD D'ANGOCHE. EN
COURS DE WEEK-END, SUITE A L'ELOIGNEMENT DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE,
A L'INCURSION D'UN CUT-OFF AU SUD DU MOZAMBIQUE ET AU RENFORCEMENT DE
LA DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST PUIS A L'EST, GOMBE
DEVRAIT RALENTIR SA COURSE SAMEDI PUIS INCURVER SA TRAJECTOIRE EN
DIRECTION DU SUD-EST A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, L'AMENANT A RESSORTIR DANS
LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE LUNDI. LES INFLUENCES COMPLEXES ET
CONTRADICTOIRES AUXQUELLES LE SYSTEME EST SOUMIS APPORTENT UNE
INCERTITUDE CONSEQUENTE SUR LA CHRONOLOGIE DU VIRAGE QU'EFFECTUERA
GOMBE SUR LES TERRES DU MOZAMBIQUE. LA TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS EST BASEE
SUR UN SCENARIO MEDIAN.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, GOMBE BENEFICIE DE CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES FAVORABLES A LA POURSUITE D'UNE FRANCHE
INTENSIFICATION JUSQU'A L'ATTERISSAGE : CONTENU ENERGETIQUE OCEANIQUE
IMPORTANT (TEMPERATURES DE SURFACE A 29-30C), TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE COTE OUEST ET UN CISAILLEMENT DEVENANT FAIBLE. LA PRESENTE
PREVISION TABLE SUR UNE INTENSIFICATION JUSQU'AU STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE A L'ATTERRISSAGE. LA PETITE TAILLE DU COEUR DU
SYSTEME REND LA PREVISION DE L'AMPLEUR DE L'INTENSIFICATION ENCORE
INCERTAINE. UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT CLASSIQUE EST ENSUITE ATTENDU UNE FOIS
LE SYSTEME SUR LES TERRES DU MOZAMBIQUE. AU MOMENT DE LA RESSORTIE EN
MER PREVUE LUNDI PROCHAIN, LA RE-INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME DEVRAIT
ETRE TRES LENTE. A L'APPROCHE D'UN TALWEG DE HAUTE A MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE PAR LE SUD-OUEST, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT SUBIR UNE HAUSSE DU
CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST ET UNE INTRUSION D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :
- MOZAMBIQUE : L'ATTERRISSAGE D'UN CYCLONE TRES DANGEREUX EST PREVU
EN FIN DE NUIT DE JEUDI A VENDREDI SUR LA PROVINCE DE NAMPULA,
VRAISEMBLABLEMENT ENTRE L'ILE DE MOZAMBIQUE AU NORD ET LA VILLE
D'ANGOCHE AU SUD. UNE DETERIORATION SIGNIFICATIVE ET RAPIDE EST
IMMINENTE ET DEVRAIT SE POURSUIVRE JUSQU'A VENDREDI MATIN.
VENTS: GOMBE EST UN CYCLONE COMPACT, LES RAFALES LES PLUS FORTES NE
CONCERNERONT QUE LE VOISINAGE IMMEDIAT DE LA ZONE ATTERRISSAGE (50KM
AUTOUR) MAIS POURRAIENT DEPASSER LES 200 KM/H EN RAFALES.
PLUIES: DES CUMULS DE 100-200 MM SONT ATTENDUS EN 24H LE LONG DE LA
TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME JUSQU'A LA RESSORTIE EN MER, ET LOCALEMENT 200
A 300 MM EN 24H AU NORD IMMEDIAT DE LA ZONE D'ATTERRISAGE. SUR
L'ENSEMBLE DE L'EPISODE, DES CUMULS DEPASSANT LES 400MM SONT
POSSIBLES SUR LA PROVINCE DE NAMPULA.
MER: DES VAGUES POUVANT ATTEINDRE 6 A 10 METRES SONT PROBABLES SUR
CERTAINES PORTIONS DES COTES DE LA PROVINCE LA NUIT PROCHAINE. UNE
SURCOTE DE L'ORDRE DE 1 A 2 METRES EST POSSIBLE AU SUD DE LA
TRAJECTOIRE.
-MALAWI : LE SUD DU MALAWI SERA CONCERNE A LA MARGE PAR LES FORTES
PLUIES AUTOUR DU CENTRE RESIDUEL DE GOMBE SAMEDI ET DIMANCHE. DES
CUMULS DEPASSANT LES 100 MM SONT POSSIBLES.
-LES POPULATIONS DE LA ZONE SONT INVITEES A TERMINER AU PLUS VITE LES
PREPARATIFS A L'IMPACT D'UN CYCLONE POTENTIELLEMENT INTENSE ET A
SUIVRE LES CONSIGNES DES AUTORITES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 101835
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/9/20212022
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GOMBE)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/10 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.7 S / 41.4 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 971 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 70 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/11 06 UTC: 15.5 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SW: 205 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 35
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 0

24H: 2022/03/11 18 UTC: 15.3 S / 38.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SW: 100 NW: 0

36H: 2022/03/12 06 UTC: 15.2 S / 37.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2022/03/12 18 UTC: 15.3 S / 37.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2022/03/13 06 UTC: 15.9 S / 36.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

72H: 2022/03/13 18 UTC: 16.8 S / 37.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/14 18 UTC: 18.4 S / 38.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 140 SW: 0 NW: 140

120H: 2022/03/15 18 UTC: 20.4 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 140 SW: 0 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 0 NW: 95

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0-

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, GOMBE'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO
IMPROVE, WITH IR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYING ENHANCED CONVECTION
WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS (-85/-90C) AND A MORE SYMMETRICAL CDO
STRUCTURE. A 1534Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS A BETTER CONSOLIDATED INNER CORE
THAN PREVIOUSLY. A PARTIAL 1511Z SMAP PASS SHOWS WINDS UP TO 65KT,
BUT THE SYSTEM'S RECENT STRUCTURAL IMPROVEMENT SUGGESTS IT IS
CURRENTLY INTENSIFYING. WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS BETWEEN 4.5
AND 5.0, THE INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 75KT.

NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. GOMBE'S TRACK IS MAINLY DRIVEN BY
THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, GIVING A
GENERAL WESTWARD MOVEMENT, HENCE A PLANNED LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST
OF MOZAMBIQUE TONIGHT JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK BETWEEN ANGOCHE AND ISLE
OF MOZAMBIQUE. DURING THE WEEKEND, AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RECEDES,
THE INCURSION OF A CUT-OFF TO THE SOUTH OF MOZAMBIQUE AND THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST THEN TO
THE EAST, GOMBE SHOULD SLOW ITS MOVEMENT ON SATURDAY AND THEN TURN
SOUTHEASTWARDS FROM SUNDAY, WHICH WOULD MAKE IT MOVE BACK INTO THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL FROM MONDAY. THE COMPLEX AND CONFLICTING STEERING
FLOWS BRING SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF GOMBE'S TURN
OVERLAND. THE RSMC'S TRACK IS BASED ON A MEDIAN SCENARIO.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, GOMBE BENEFITS FROM CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER STEADY OR RAPID INTENSIFICATION UP
TO THE LANDFALL : IMPORTANT OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT (SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AROUND 29-30C), VERY GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE ON THE
WESTERN SIDE AND WEAKENING SHEAR. THE PRESENT FORECAST ASSUMES AN
INTENSIFICATION UP TO INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE AT LANDFALL. THE
INNER CORE'S SMALL SIZE INCREASES UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS
INTENSIFICATION. A CLASSICAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED ONCE THE SYSTEM IS
OVER LAND. WHEN THE SYSTEM EMERGES BACK OUT TO SEA NEXT MONDAY,
RE-INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BE VERY SLOW. AN UPPER TO MID-TROPOSPHERE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY INDUCE INCREASED
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :
- MOZAMBIQUE : A VERY DANGEROUS CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
BETWEEN LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY EARLY MORNING IN THE NAMPULA
PROVINCE, PROBABLY BETWEEN ISLE OF MOZAMBIQUE AND ANGOCHE. A
SIGNIFICANT AND RAPID DETERIORATION IS IMMINENT AND SHOULD CONTINUE
UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS: GOMBE IS A COMPACT CYCLONE, THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL CONCERN
ONLY THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE LANDFALL ZONE (50KM AROUND) BUT
GUSTS COULD LOCALLY EXCEED 200 KM/H.
RAINFALL: ACCUMULATIONS OF 100-200 MM ARE EXPECTED IN 24H ALONG THE
SYSTEM'S TRACK UNTIL ITS EXIT BACK TO SEA, AND LOCALLY 200 TO 300 MM
IN 24H TO THE IMMEDIATE NORTH OF THE LANDFALL AREA. OVER THE WHOLE
EPISODE, ACCUMULATIONS EXCEEDING 400MM ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE PROVINCE
OF NAMPULA.
SEA: WAVES OF UP TO 6 TO 10 METERS ARE LIKELY ON SOME PARTS OF THE
PROVINCE'S COASTS TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. STORM SURGE UP TO
1 TO 2 METERS IS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE TRACK.
-MALAWI : SOUTHERN MALAWI WILL BE MARGINALLY AFFECTED BY HEAVY
RAINFALL AROUND THE STORM'S REMNANT CENTER ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 100 MM ARE POSSIBLE.
-PEOPLE IN THE AREA ARE ADVISED TO COMPLETE PREPARATIONS FOR THE
IMPACT OF AN INTENSE CYCLONE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE AND TO FOLLOW THE
INSTRUCTIONS OF AUTHORITIES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 101815
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/03/2022
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 019/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 10/03/2022 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GOMBE) 971 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.7 S / 41.4 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 100 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/75 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/03/11 AT 06 UTC:
15.5 S / 39.9 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 20 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 0 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2022/03/11 AT 18 UTC:
15.3 S / 38.5 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 101500
WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 220310134006
2022031012 19S GOMBE 008 01 245 07 SATL 060
T000 159S 0421E 075
T012 160S 0406E 100 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 159S 0393E 080 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 157S 0381E 045
T048 160S 0373E 030
T072 169S 0374E 030
T096 184S 0382E 035 R034 090 NE QD 110 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD
T120 203S 0394E 045 R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 15.9S 42.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 42.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 16.0S 40.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 15.9S 39.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 15.7S 38.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 16.0S 37.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 16.9S 37.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 18.4S 38.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 20.3S 39.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 41.7E.
10MAR22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 393
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z.
//
1922030412 160S 563E 15
1922030418 157S 554E 15
1922030500 156S 549E 15
1922030506 158S 544E 15
1922030512 160S 541E 20
1922030518 164S 544E 20
1922030600 163S 547E 25
1922030606 161S 545E 25
1922030612 160S 535E 25
1922030618 154S 529E 25
1922030700 152S 524E 25
1922030706 152S 521E 25
1922030712 155S 518E 30
1922030718 156S 513E 35
1922030800 155S 504E 35
1922030806 154S 494E 30
1922030812 150S 484E 30
1922030818 151S 476E 30
1922030900 149S 469E 45
1922030906 148S 461E 50
1922030912 150S 452E 55
1922030912 150S 452E 55
1922030918 153S 444E 55
1922030918 153S 444E 55
1922031000 154S 436E 60
1922031000 154S 436E 60
1922031006 156S 428E 65
1922031006 156S 428E 65
1922031006 156S 428E 65
1922031012 159S 421E 75
1922031012 159S 421E 75
1922031012 159S 421E 75
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 15.9S 42.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 42.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 16.0S 40.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 15.9S 39.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 15.7S 38.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 16.0S 37.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 16.9S 37.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 18.4S 38.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 20.3S 39.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 41.7E.
10MAR22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 393
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 101235
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 19/9/20212022
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 9 (GOMBE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 10/03/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.0 S / 41.9 E
(SEIZE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET QUARANTE UN DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 975 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 31 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 85 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 60 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 11/03/2022 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 40.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SO: 120 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 85 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

24H: 11/03/2022 12 UTC: 15.5 S / 39.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SO: 95 NO: 0

36H: 12/03/2022 00 UTC: 15.3 S / 38.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

48H: 12/03/2022 12 UTC: 15.6 S / 37.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

60H: 13/03/2022 00 UTC: 16.1 S / 37.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

72H: 13/03/2022 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 37.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 14/03/2022 12 UTC: 18.1 S / 38.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
PERTURBATION TROPICALE

120H: 15/03/2022 12 UTC: 19.2 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 175 SO: 140 NO: 140

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE A
CONTINUE A S AMELIORER AVEC UNE STRUCTURE EN CDO. APRES UNE BOUFFEE
DE CONVECTION AUTOUR DE 06Z, LE CENTRE S EST RETROUVE DAVANTAGE SOUS
LA CONVECTION PROFONDE. DE L AIR SEC RESTE MALGRE TOUT PRESENT DANS
LE COEUR DU SYSTEME COMME LE MONTRE LA GMI DE 0925Z AVEC UNE
CIRCULATION ENCORE MAL DEFINIE SUR LA 89COLOR. CETTE EVOLUTION
SUGGERE UNE LEGERE INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME. EN ACCORD AVEC LES
ANALYSES DVORAK SUBJECTIVES PROCHE DE 4.5,L INTENSITE EST FIXEE A
70KT.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT DANS LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE. LA TRAJECTOIRE DE
GOMBE EST PILOTEE PRINCIPALEMENT PAR LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AU SUD DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE, DONNANT UN
MOUVEMENT GENERAL VERS L'OUEST, D'OU UN ATTERRISSAGE PREVU SUR LA
COTE EST DU MOZAMBIQUE EN FIN DE NUIT PROCHAINE AU NORD D ANGOCHE. EN
COURS DE WEEK-END, SUITE A L'ELOIGNEMENT DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE,
A L'INCURSION D'UN PETIT CUT-OFF AU SUD DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE ET AU
RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST PUIS A
L'EST, GOMBE DEVRAIT RALENTIR SA COURSE SAMEDI PUIS INCURVER SA
TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DU SUD-EST A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, L'AMENANT A
RESSORTIR DANS LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE D'ICI LUNDI. LES INFLUENCES
COMPLEXES ET CONTRADICTOIRES AUXQUELLES LE SYSTEME EST SOUMIS
APPORTENT UNE INCERTITUDE CONSEQUENTE SUR LA CHRONOLOGIE DU VIRAGE
QU'EFFECTUERA GOMBE SUR LES TERRES DU MOZAMBIQUE. LA TRAJECTOIRE DU
CMRS EST BASEE SUR UN SCENARIO MEDIAN RECALE UN PEU PLUS SUD ENTRE
LES PRINCIPAUX MODELES DISPONIBLES.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, GOMBE BENEFICIE DE CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES FAVORABLES A LA POURSUITE D'UNE FRANCHE
INTENSIFICATION JUSQU'A L'ATTERISSAGE : CONTENU ENERGETIQUE OCEANIQUE
IMPORTANT (TEMPERATURES DE SURFACE A 29-30C), TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE COTE OUEST ET UN CISAILLEMENT DEVENANT FAIBLE. LA PRESENTE
PREVISION TABLE SUR UNE INTENSIFICATION JUSQU'AU STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE A L'ATTERRISAGE. CEPENDANT, LA PETITE TAILLE DU
COEUR ACTUEL DU SYSTEME REND LA PREVISION DE L'AMPLEUR DE
L'INTENSIFICATION ENCORE INCERTAINE.
UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT CLASSIQUE EST ENSUITE ATTENDU UNE FOIS LE SYSTEME
SUR LES TERRES DU MOZAMBIQUE. AU MOMENT DE LA RESSORTIE EN MER PREVUE
LUNDI PROCHAIN, LES PROBABILITES DE RE-INTENSIFICATION SONT A LA
BAISSE. A L'APPROCHE D'UN TALWEG DE HAUTE A MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE PAR
LE SUD-OUEST, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT SUBIR UNE HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT DE
NORD-OUEST ET UNE INTRUSION D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :
- ARCHIPEL DES COMORES ET MAYOTTE : INFLUENCE PERIPHERIQUE RESIDUELLE
EN TERME DE FORTES PLUIES ORAGEUSES POUR LA SOIREE.

- MOZAMBIQUE : L'ATTERRISSAGE D'UN CYCLONE POTENTIELLEMENT TRES
DANGEREUX EST A PREVOIR EN FIN DE NUIT DE JEUDI A VENDREDI SUR LA
PROVINCE DE NAMPULA, VRAISEMBLABLEMENT ENTRE LES VILLES DE NACALA AU
NORD ET D'ANGOCHE AU SUD. LES CONDITIONS ONT COMMENCE A SE DEGRADER
EN JOURNEE AVANT UNE DETERIORATION SIGNIFICATIVE ET RAPIDE EN SOIREE
ET CETTE NUIT DANS LA ZONE D'IMPACT.
VENTS: GOMBE EST UN CYCLONE COMPACT, LES RAFALES LES PLUS FORTES NE
CONCERNERONT QUE LE VOISINAGE IMMEDIAT DE LA ZONE ATTERRISSAGE (50KM
AUTOUR) MAIS POURRAIENT DEPASSER LES 200KM/H EN RAFALES.
PLUIES: DES CUMULS DE 100-150 MM SONT ATTENDUS EN 24H LE LONG DE LA
TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME JUSQU'A LA RESSORTIE EN MER, ET LOCALEMENT 200
A 300 MM EN 24H AU NORD DE LA ZONE D'ATTERRISAGE. SUR L'ENSEMBLE DE
L'EPISODE DES CUMULS DEPASSANT LES 400MM SONT POSSIBLES SUR LA
PROVINCE DE NAMPULA.
MER: DES VAGUES POUVANT DEPASSER LES 6M SONT PROBABLES SUR CERTAINES
PORTIONS DES COTES DE LA PROVINCE LA NUIT PROCHAINE. UNE SURCOTE DE
L'ORDRE DE 1M50 A 2M EST POSSIBLE AU SUD DE LA TRAJECTOIRE.

-MALAWI : LE SUD DU MALAWI SERA CONCERNE A LA MARGE PAR LES FORTES
PLUIES AUTOUR DU CENTRE RESIDUEL DE GOMBE SAMEDI ET DIMANCHE. DES
CUMULS DEPASSANT LES 100 MM SONT POSSIBLES.

LES POPULATIONS DE LA ZONE SONT INVITEES A TERMINER AU PLUS VITE LES
PREPARATIFS A L'IMPACT D'UN CYCLONE POTENTIELLEMENT INTENSE ET A
SUIVRE LES CONSIGNES DES AUTORITES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 101235
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/9/20212022
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GOMBE)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/10 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.0 S / 41.9 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 31 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/11 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 40.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SW: 120 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

24H: 2022/03/11 12 UTC: 15.5 S / 39.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SW: 95 NW: 0

36H: 2022/03/12 00 UTC: 15.3 S / 38.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

48H: 2022/03/12 12 UTC: 15.6 S / 37.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2022/03/13 00 UTC: 16.1 S / 37.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

72H: 2022/03/13 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 37.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/14 12 UTC: 18.1 S / 38.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

120H: 2022/03/15 12 UTC: 19.2 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 140

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE
WITH A CDO STRUCTURE. AFTER A BURST OF CONVECTION AROUND 06Z, THE
CENTER HAS BEEN MORE UNDER DEEP CONVECTION. SOME DRY AIR IS STILL
PRESENT IN THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM AS SHOWN BY THE 0925Z GMI WITH A
STILL ILL-DEFINED CIRCULATION ON 89COLOR. THIS EVOLUTION SUGGESTS A
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS CLOSE TO 4.5, THE INTENSITY IS FIXED AT
70KT.

NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. GOMBE'S TRACK IS MAINLY DRIVEN BY
THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, GIVING A
GENERAL WESTWARD MOVEMENT, HENCE A PLANNED LANDING ON THE EAST COAST
OF MOZAMBIQUE LATE NEXT NIGHT BETWEEN ANGOCHE AND NACALA. DURING THE
WEEKEND, FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, THE
INCURSION OF A SMALL CUT-OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL
AND THE STRENGTHENING OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST
THEN TO THE EAST, GOMBE SHOULD SLOW ITS COURSE ON SATURDAY AND THEN
BEND ITS TRACK SOUTHEASTWARDS FROM SUNDAY, LEADING TO ITS EMERGENCE
IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, MONDAY. THE COMPLEX AND CONFLICTING
STEERING FLOWS BRING A SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF
GOMBE'S TURN OVERLAND. THE RSMC TRACK IS BASED ON A MEDIAN SCENARIO,
ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD, BETWEEN THE MAIN AVAILABLE MODELS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, GOMBE BENEFITS FROM ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR THE CONTINUATION OF A STEADY OR RAPID INTENSIFICATION
UP TO THE LANDING: IMPORTANT OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT (SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AROUND 29-30C), VERY GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE ON THE
WESTERN SIDE AND A WEAKENING SHEAR. THE PRESENT FORECAST ASSUMES AN
INTENSIFICATION UP TO THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE AT LANDFALL.
HOWEVER, THE INNER CORE SMALL SIZE MAKES THE FORECAST OF THE EXTENT
OF INTENSIFICATION STILL UNCERTAIN.
A CLASSICAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED ONCE THE SYSTEM IS OVER LAND. WHEN
THE SYSTEM EA MERGES OUT ON THE SEA NEXT MONDAY, THE PROBABILITIES
FOR A RE-INTENSIFICATION ARE DOWN. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES AN UPPER
TO MID-TROPOSPHERE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST, IT MAY EXPERIENCE
INCREASED NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND THE INTRUSION OF DRY AIR IN
MID-TROPOSPHERE.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :
- COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO AND MAYOTTE : RESIDUAL PERIPHERAL INFLUENCE
WITH HEAVY THUNDERY RAIN THIS EVENING.

- MOZAMBIQUE : A POTENTIALLY VERY DANGEROUS CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
LAND LATE THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE NAMPULA PROVINCE, PROBABLY BETWEEN
NACALA AT NORTH AND ANGOCHE AT SOUTH. CONDITIONS BEGAN TO DETERIORATE
TODAY BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT AND RAPID DETERIORATION THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA.
WINDS: GOMBE IS A COMPACT CYCLONE, THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL ONLY
CONCERN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE LANDING ZONE (50KM AROUND) BUT
COULD EXCEED 200KM/H IN GUSTS.
RAINS: ACCUMULATIONS OF 100-150 MM ARE EXPECTED IN 24 HOURS ALONG THE
SYSTEM'S TRACK UP TO THE EMERGENCE OVER THE SEA, WITH LOCALLY UP TO
200 TO 300 MM IN 24 HOURS NORTH OF THE LANDING AREA. OVER THE WHOLE
EPISODE ACCULATIONS EXCEEDING 400 MM ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NAMPULA
PROVINCE.
SEA: WAVES OF UP TO 6M ARE LIKELY OVER PARTS OF NAMPULA PROVINCE'S
COASTLINE OVERNIGHT. A SURGE OF ABOUT 1M50 TO 2M IS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
THE TRACK.

-MALAWI : SOUTHERN MALAWI WILL BE MARGINALLY AFFECTED BY HEAVY RAINS
NEAR GOMBE RESIDUAL CENTER ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
EXCEEDING 100 MM ARE POSSIBLE.

INHABITANTS OF THE AREA ARE ADVISED TO COMPLETE PREPARATIONS FOR THE
IMPACT OF A POTENTIALLY INTENSE CYCLONE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE AND TO
FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS OF THE AUTHORITIES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 101219
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/03/2022
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 018/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 10/03/2022 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GOMBE) 975 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.0 S / 41.9 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 70 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 150 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/03/11 AT 00 UTC:
15.8 S / 40.7 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2022/03/11 AT 12 UTC:
15.5 S / 39.2 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 100900
WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 220310073245
2022031006 19S GOMBE 007 01 255 08 SATL 060
T000 156S 0428E 065
T012 158S 0411E 085 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 156S 0398E 090 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 156S 0389E 065
T048 156S 0378E 045
T072 162S 0370E 030
T096 179S 0376E 035 R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 010 NW QD
T120 195S 0391E 045 R034 140 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 15.6S 42.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 42.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 15.8S 41.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 15.6S 39.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 15.6S 38.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 15.6S 37.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 16.2S 37.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 17.9S 37.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 19.5S 39.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 42.4E.
10MAR22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 423
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z.
//
1922030412 160S 563E 15
1922030418 157S 554E 15
1922030500 156S 549E 15
1922030506 158S 544E 15
1922030512 160S 541E 20
1922030518 164S 544E 20
1922030600 163S 547E 25
1922030606 161S 545E 25
1922030612 160S 535E 25
1922030618 154S 529E 25
1922030700 152S 524E 25
1922030706 152S 521E 25
1922030712 155S 518E 30
1922030718 156S 513E 35
1922030800 155S 504E 35
1922030806 154S 494E 30
1922030812 150S 484E 30
1922030818 151S 476E 30
1922030900 149S 469E 45
1922030906 148S 461E 50
1922030912 150S 452E 55
1922030912 150S 452E 55
1922030918 153S 444E 55
1922030918 153S 444E 55
1922031000 154S 436E 60
1922031000 154S 436E 60
1922031006 156S 428E 65
1922031006 156S 428E 65
1922031006 156S 428E 65
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 15.6S 42.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 42.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 15.8S 41.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 15.6S 39.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 15.6S 38.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 15.6S 37.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 16.2S 37.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 17.9S 37.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 19.5S 39.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 42.4E.
10MAR22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 423
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 100647
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 18/9/20212022
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 9 (GOMBE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 10/03/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.6 S / 42.8 E
(QUINZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUARANTE DEUX DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 978 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 85 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 60 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 10/03/2022 18 UTC: 15.6 S / 41.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SO: 140 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 100 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

24H: 11/03/2022 06 UTC: 15.5 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SO: 95 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 65 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

36H: 11/03/2022 18 UTC: 15.4 S / 38.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 95

48H: 12/03/2022 06 UTC: 15.4 S / 37.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

60H: 12/03/2022 18 UTC: 15.6 S / 37.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

72H: 13/03/2022 06 UTC: 16.0 S / 37.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 14/03/2022 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 37.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
PERTURBATION TROPICALE

120H: 15/03/2022 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 39.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 220 SO: 110 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 85 NO: 100

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5-

DEPUIS 00Z, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE A CONTINUE DE S'AMELIORER AVEC
UN CENTRE DE PLUS EN PLUS NOYE DANS LA MASSE. SUR LES DERNIERES
IMAGES, UN OEIL SEMBLE MEME SE FORMER, ALORS QUE L'ACTIVITE
ELECTRIQUE EST INTENSE PROCHE DU CENTRE. CETTE EVOLUTION SUGGERE UNE
INTENSICATION DU SYSTEME. EN ACCORD AVEC LES ANALYSES DVORAK
SUBJECTIVES PROCHE DE 4.0/4.5 AINSI QUE LA PASSE SMAP DE 0301Z,
L'INTENSITE EST FIXEE A 65KT. CE CREUSEMENT SEMBLE COHERENT AVEC LA
BAISSE DU CISAILLEMENT OBSERVE PAR LE CIMSS (SEULEMENT 10KT A 03Z).

PAS DE CHANGEMENT DANS LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE. LA TRAJECTOIRE DE
GOMBE EST PILOTEE PRINCIPALEMENT PAR LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AU SUD DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE, DONNANT UN
MOUVEMENT GENERAL VERS L'OUEST, D'OU UN ATTERRISSAGE PREVU SUR LA
COTE EST DU MOZAMBIQUE EN FIN DE NUIT PROCHAINE ENTRE ANGOCHE ET
NACALA. EN COURS DE WEEK-END, SUITE A L'ELOIGNEMENT DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE, A L'INCURSION D'UN PETIT CUT-OFF AU SUD DU CANAL DU
MOZAMBIQUE ET AU RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE AU
NORD-EST PUIS A L'EST, GOMBE DEVRAIT RALENTIR SA COURSE SAMEDI PUIS
INCURVER SA TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DU SUD-EST A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE,
L'AMENANT A RESSORTIR DANS LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE D'ICI LUNDI. LES
INFLUENCES COMPLEXES ET CONTRADICTOIRES AUXQUELLES LE SYSTEME EST
SOUMIS APPORTENT UNE INCERTITUDE CONSEQUENTE SUR LA CHRONOLOGIE DU
VIRAGE QU'EFFECTUERA GOMBE SUR LES TERRES DU MOZAMBIQUE. LA
TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS EST BASEE SUR UN SCENARIO MEDIAN ENTRE LES
PRINCIPAUX MODELES DISPONIBLES.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, GOMBE BENEFICIE DE CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES FAVORABLES A LA POURSUITE D'UNE FRANCHE
INTENSIFICATION JSUQU'A L'ATTERISSAGE : CONTENU ENERGETIQUE OCEANIQUE
IMPORTANT (TEMPERATURES DE SURFACE A 29-30C), TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE COTE OUEST ET UN CISAILLEMENT DEVENANT FAIBLE. LA PRESENTE
PREVISION TABLE SUR UNE INTENSIFICATION JUSQU'AU STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE A L'ATTERRISAGE. CEPENDANT, LA PETITE TAILLE DU
COEUR ACTUEL DU SYSTEME REND LA PREVISION DE L'AMPLEUR DE
L'INTENSIFICATION ENCORE INCERTAINE.
UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT CLASSIQUE EST ENSUITE ATTENDU UNE FOIS LE SYSTEME
SUR LES TERRES DU MOZAMBIQUE. AU MOMENT DE LA RESSORTIE EN MER PREVUE
LUNDI PROCHAIN, LES PROBABILITES DE RE-INTENSIFICATION SONT A LA
BAISSE. A L'APPROCHE D'UN TALWEG DE HAUTE A MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE PAR
LE SUD-OUEST, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT SUBIR UNE HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT DE
NORD-OUEST ET UNE INTRUSION D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :
- ARCHIPEL DES COMORES ET MAYOTTE : INFLUENCE PERIPHERIQUE
RESIDUELLES EN TERME DE FORTES PLUIES ORAGEUSES POUR AUJOURD'HUI.

- MOZAMBIQUE : L'ATTERRISSAGE D'UN CYCLONE POTENTIELLEMENT TRES
DANGEREUX EST A PREVOIR EN FIN DE NUIT DE JEUDI A VENDREDI SUR LA
PROVINCE DE NAMPULA, VRAISEMBLABLEMENT ENTRE LES VILLES DE NACALA AU
NORD ET D'ANGOCHE AU SUD. LES CONDITIONS ONT COMMENCE A SE DEGRADER
CE MATIN AVANT UNE DETERIORATION SIGNIFICATIVE ET RAPIDE EN FIN DE
JOURNEE ET CETTE NUIT DANS LA ZONE D'IMPACT.
VENTS: GOMBE EST UN CYCLONE COMPACT, LES RAFALES LES PLUS FORTES NE
CONCERNERONT QUE LE VOISINAGE IMMEDIAT DE LA ZONE D'ATTERISAGE (50KM
AUTOUR) MAIS POURRAIENT DEPASSER LES 200KM/H EN RAFALES.
PLUIES: DES CUMULS DE 100-150 MM SONT ATTENDUS EN 24H LE LONG DE LA
TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME JUSQU'A LA RESSORTIE EN MER, ET LOCALEMENT 200
A 300MM EN 24H AU NORD DE LA ZONE D'ATERRISAGE. SUR L'ENSEMBLE DE
L'EPISODE DE CUMULS DEPASSANT LES 400MM SONT POSSIBLES SUR LA
PROVINCE DE NAMPULA.
MER: DES VAGUES POUVANT DEPASSER LES 6M SONT PROBABLES SUR CERTAINES
PORTIONS DES COTES DE LA PROVINCE LA NUIT PROCHAINE. UNE SURCOTE DE
L'ORDRE DE 1M50 A 2M EST POSSIBLE AU SUD DE LA TRAJECTOIRE.

-MALAWI : LE SUD DU MALAWI SERA CONCERNEE A LA MARGE PAR LES FORTES
PLUIES AUTOUR DU CENTRE RESIDUELLE DE GOMBE SAMEDI ET DIMANCHE. DES
CUMULS DEPASSANT LES 100MM SONT POSSIBLES.

LES POPULATIONS DE LA ZONE SONT INVITEES A TERMINER AU PLUS VITE LES
PREPARATIFS A L'IMPACT D'UN CYCLONE POTENTIELLEMENT INTENSE ET A
SUIVRE LES CONSIGNES DES AUTORITES=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 100647
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/9/20212022
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GOMBE)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/10 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6 S / 42.8 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/10 18 UTC: 15.6 S / 41.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SW: 140 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

24H: 2022/03/11 06 UTC: 15.5 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 95 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 65 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2022/03/11 18 UTC: 15.4 S / 38.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 95

48H: 2022/03/12 06 UTC: 15.4 S / 37.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2022/03/12 18 UTC: 15.6 S / 37.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

72H: 2022/03/13 06 UTC: 16.0 S / 37.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/14 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 37.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

120H: 2022/03/15 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 39.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 220 SW: 110 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 85 NW: 100

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-

SINCE 00Z, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE WITH A CENTER
MORE AND MORE EMBEDDED IN THE CDO. ON THE LAST IMAGES, AN EYE SEEMS
TO FORM, WHILE THE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS INTENSE NEAR THE CENTER.
THIS EVOLUTION SUGGESTS AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS NEAR 4.0/4.5 AND THE
0301Z SMAP PASS, THE INTENSITY IS FIXED AT 65KT. THIS DEEPENING SEEMS
COHERENT WITH THE DECREASE IN SHEAR OBSERVED BY THE CIMSS (ONLY 10KT
AT 03Z).

NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. GOMBE'S TRACK IS MAINLY DRIVEN BY
THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, GIVING A
GENERAL WESTWARD MOVEMENT, HENCE A PLANNED LANDING ON THE EAST COAST
OF MOZAMBIQUE LATE NEXT NIGHT BETWEEN ANGOCHE AND NACALA. DURING THE
WEEKEND, FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, THE
INCURSION OF A SMALL CUT-OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL
AND THE STRENGTHENING OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST
THEN TO THE EAST, GOMBE SHOULD SLOW ITS COURSE ON SATURDAY AND THEN
BEND ITS TRACK SOUTHEASTWARDS FROM SUNDAY, LEADING TO ITS EMERGENCE
IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, MONDAY. THE COMPLEX AND CONFLICTING
STEERING FLOWS BRING A SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF
GOMBE'S TURN OVERLAND. THE RSMC TRACK IS BASED ON A MEDIAN SCENARIO
BETWEEN THE MAIN AVAILABLE MODELS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, GOMBE BENEFITS FROM ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR THE CONTINUATION OF A STEADY OR RAPID INTENSIFICATION
UP TO THE LANDING: IMPORTANT OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT (SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AROUND 29-30C), VERY GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE ON THE
WESTERN SIDE AND A WEAKENING SHEAR. THE PRESENT FORECAST ASSUMES AN
INTENSIFICATION UP TO THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE AT LANDFALL.
HOWEVER, THE INNER CORE SMALL SIZE MAKES THE FORECAST OF THE EXTENT
OF INTENSIFICATION STILL UNCERTAIN.
A CLASSICAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED ONCE THE SYSTEM IS OVER LAND. WHEN
THE SYSTEM EA MERGES OUT ON THE SEA NEXT MONDAY, THE PROBABILITIES
FOR A RE-INTENSIFICATION ARE DOWN. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES AN UPPER
TO MID-TROPOSPHERE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST, IT MAY EXPERIENCE
INCREASED NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND THE INTRUSION OF DRY AIR IN
MID-TROPOSPHERE.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :
- COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO AND MAYOTTE : RESIDUAL PERIPHERAL INFLUENCE
WITH HEAVY THUNDERY RAIN TODAY.

- MOZAMBIQUE : A POTENTIALLY VERY DANGEROUS CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
LAND LATE THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE NAMPULA PROVINCE, PROBABLY BETWEEN
NACALA AT NORTH AND ANGOCHE AT SOUTH. CONDITIONS BEGAN TO DETERIORATE
THIS MORNING BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT AND RAPID DETERIORATION LATE TODAY
AND OVERNIGHT NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA.
WINDS: GOMBE IS A COMPACT CYCLONE, THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL ONLY
CONCERN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE LANDING ZONE (50KM AROUND) BUT
COULD EXCEED 200KM/H IN GUSTS.
RAINS: ACCUMULATIONS OF 100-150 MM ARE EXPECTED IN 24 HOURS ALONG THE
SYSTEM'S TRACK UP TO TO THE EMERGENCE OVER THE SEA, WITH LOCALLY UP
TO 200 TO 300MM IN 24 HOURS NORTH OF THE LANDING AREA. OVER THE WHOLE
EPISODE ACCULATIONS EXCEEDING 400MM ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NAMPULA
PROVINCE.
SEA: WAVES OF UP TO 6M ARE LIKELY OVER PARTS OF NAMPULA PROVINCE'S
COASTLINE OVERNIGHT. A SURGE OF ABOUT 1M50 TO 2M IS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
THE TRACK.

-MALAWI : SOUTHERN MALAWI WILL BE MARGINALLY AFFECTED BY HEAVY RAINS
NEAR GOMBE RESIDUAL CENTER ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
EXCEEDING 100MM ARE POSSIBLE.

INHABITANTS OF THE AREA ARE ADVISED TO COMPLETE PREPARATIONS FOR THE
IMPACT OF A POTENTIALLY INTENSE CYCLONE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE AND TO
FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS OF THE AUTHORITIES=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 100621
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/03/2022
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 017/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 10/03/2022 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GOMBE) 978 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6 S / 42.8 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 70 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 150 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/03/10 AT 18 UTC:
15.6 S / 41.4 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2022/03/11 AT 06 UTC:
15.5 S / 40.0 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 15 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 100300
WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 220310013206
2022031000 19S GOMBE 006 01 270 07 SATL 020
T000 153S 0436E 060
T012 154S 0420E 080 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 154S 0404E 100 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 154S 0392E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD
T048 154S 0384E 045
T072 158S 0376E 030
T096 169S 0381E 025
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 15.3S 43.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 43.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 15.4S 42.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 15.4S 40.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 15.4S 39.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 15.4S 38.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 15.8S 37.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 16.9S 38.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 15.3S 43.2E.
10MAR22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 311
NM NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 100000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z
AND 110300Z.//
1922030412 160S 563E 15
1922030418 157S 554E 15
1922030500 156S 549E 15
1922030506 158S 544E 15
1922030512 160S 541E 20
1922030518 164S 544E 20
1922030600 163S 547E 25
1922030606 161S 545E 25
1922030612 160S 535E 25
1922030618 154S 529E 25
1922030700 152S 524E 25
1922030706 152S 521E 25
1922030712 155S 518E 30
1922030718 156S 513E 35
1922030800 155S 504E 35
1922030806 154S 494E 30
1922030812 150S 484E 30
1922030818 151S 476E 30
1922030900 149S 469E 45
1922030906 148S 461E 50
1922030912 150S 452E 55
1922030912 150S 452E 55
1922030918 153S 443E 55
1922030918 153S 443E 55
1922031000 153S 436E 60
1922031000 153S 436E 60
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 15.3S 43.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 43.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 15.4S 42.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 15.4S 40.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 15.4S 39.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 15.4S 38.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 15.8S 37.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 16.9S 38.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 15.3S 43.2E.
10MAR22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 311
NM NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 100000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z
AND 110300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 100059
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 17/9/20212022
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 9 (GOMBE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 10/03/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.5 S / 43.8 E
(QUINZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUARANTE TROIS DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 983 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 45
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: NON RENSEIGNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 10/03/2022 12 UTC: 15.5 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 165 SO: 150 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 45 NO: 45

24H: 11/03/2022 00 UTC: 15.5 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SO: 120 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 85 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 45 NO: 45

36H: 11/03/2022 12 UTC: 15.3 S / 39.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SO: 0 NO: 0

48H: 12/03/2022 00 UTC: 15.3 S / 38.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

60H: 12/03/2022 12 UTC: 15.3 S / 37.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

72H: 13/03/2022 00 UTC: 15.9 S / 37.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 14/03/2022 00 UTC: 18.2 S / 38.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

120H: 15/03/2022 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 39.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 165 SO: 120 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 120 SO: 95 NO: 100

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0-

DEPUIS 18Z, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE S'EST AMELIOREE AVEC LA
CONSTITUTION D'UN CDO AUX SOMMETS TRES FROIDS ASSOCIEES A UNE
ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE BEAUCOUP PLUS SOUTENUE QUE PRECEDEMENT. DES
ESQUISSES DE POINT CHAUD SONT MEME PERCEPTIBLES AU SEIN DE CE CDO. A
DEFAUT D'IMAGERIE MICRO-ONDES POUR APPRECIER LE GAIN D'ORGANISATION
AU NIVEAU DU COEUR DU SYSTEME, L'INTENSITE EST AUGMENTEE A 55 KT A LA
LIMITE SUPERIEURE DE TOUTES LES ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES ET SUBJECTIVES
DISPONIBLES.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT DANS LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE QUI EST
GLOBALEMENT UNE MISE A JOUR DE LA PREVISION PRECEDENTE JUSQU'A
L'ARRIVEE SUR LE MOZAMBIQUE. LA TRAJECTOIRE DE GOMBE EST PILOTEE
PRINCIPALEMENT PAR LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AU
SUD DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE, DONNANT UN MOUVEMENT GENERAL VERS
L'OUEST, D'OU UN ATTERRISSAGE PREVU SUR LA COTE EST DU MOZAMBIQUE
VENDREDI TRES TOT AU NIVEAU DE LA PROVINCE DE NAMPULA. EN COURS DE
WEEK-END, SUITE A L'ELOIGNEMENT DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE, A
L'INCURSION D'UN PETIT CUT-OFF AU SUD DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE ET AU
RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST PUIS A
L'EST, GOMBE DEVRAIT RALENTIR SA COURSE SAMEDI PUIS INCURVER SA
TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DU SUD-EST A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, L'AMENANT A
RESSORTIR DANS LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE D'ICI LUNDI. LES INFLUENCES
COMPLEXES ET CONTRADICTOIRES AUXQUELLES LE SYSTEME EST SOUMIS
APPORTENT UNE INCERTITUDE CONSEQUENTE SUR LA CHRONOLOGIE DU VIRAGE
QU'EFFECTUERA GOMBE SUR LES TERRES DU MOZAMBIQUE. LA TRAJECTOIRE DU
CMRS EST BASEE SUR UN SCENARIO MEDIAN ENTRE LES PRINCIPAUX MODELES
DISPONIBLES AVEC UN DECALAGE TEMPORAIRE VERS L'OUEST FAIT A J4 EN
ACCORD AVEC LES DERNIERES GUIDANCES NUMERIQUES.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, GOMBE BENEFICIE DE CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES FAVORABLES A LA POURSUITE D'UNE FRANCHE
INTENSIFICATION AU COURS DE SA TRAVERSEE DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE :
CONTENU ENERGETIQUE OCEANIQUE IMPORTANT (TEMPERATURES DE SURFACE A
29-30C) NOTAMMENT A L'APPROCHE DES COTES, TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE COTE OUEST ET UN ENVIRONNEMENT TROPOSPHERIQUE HUMIDE. LE
CISAILLEMENT DE PLUS SUD-EST QUE EST-SUD-EST ET AVOISINANT LES 10-15
KT POURRAIT TOUTEFOIS TEMPERER LE PROCESSUS D'INTENSIFICATION
TEMPORAIREMENT A TRES COURTE ECHEANCE AVANT DE S'ESTOMPER LA NUIT
PROCHAINE. DE PLUS, LA PETITE TAILLE DU COEUR ACTUEL DU SYSTEME
POURRAIT FAVORISER UNE FORTE REACTIVITE DU SYSTEME DANS UN SENS COMME
DANS L'AUTRE. LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE RESTE DONC SOUMISE A UNE
CERTAINE INCERTITUDE. NEANMOINS, LES PROBABILITES RESTENT ELEVEES QUE
GOMBE DEVIENNE UN CYCLONE COMPACT MAIS PUISSANT AVANT DE TOUCHER LE
MOZAMBIQUE.
UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT CLASSIQUE EST ENSUITE ATTENDU UNE FOIS LE SYSTEME
SUR LES TERRES DU MOZAMBIQUE. AU MOMENT DE LA RESSORTIE EN MER PREVUE
LUNDI PROCHAIN, LES PROBABILITES DE RE-INTENSIFICATION SONT A LA
BAISSE. A L'APPROCHE D'UN TALWEG DE HAUTE A MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE PAR
LE SUD-OUEST, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT SUBIR UNE HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT DE
NORD-OUEST ET UNE INTRUSION D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :
- ARCHIPEL DES COMORES ET MAYOTTE : INFLUENCE PERIPHERIQUE
RESIDUELLES EN TERME DE FORTES PLUIES ORAGEUSES POUR AUJOURD'HUI.

- MOZAMBIQUE : L'ATTERRISSAGE D'UN CYCLONE POTENTIELLEMENT TRES
DANGEREUX EST A PREVOIR VENDREDI EN MATINEE OU EN FIN DE NUIT DE
JEUDI A VENDREDI SUR LA PROVINCE DE NAMPULA, VRAISEMBLABLEMENT ENTRE
LES VILLES DE NACALA AU NORD ET D'ANGOCHE AU SUD. LES CONDITIONS
COMMENCENT A SE DEGRADER LENTEMENT AUJOURD'HUI AVANT UNE
DETERIORATION SIGNIFICATIVE ET RAPIDE EN COURS DE NUIT SUIVANTE DANS
LA ZONE D'IMPACT.
VENTS: GOMBE EST UN CYCLONE COMPACT, L'ARRIVEE DES VENTS DE LA FORCE
DU COUP DE VENT ASSOCIE A DES RAFALES A 90-100 KM/H EST PREVUE POUR
LA PREMIERE PARTIE DE NUIT. LES PLUS VIOLENTES RAFALES DE VENT
PEUVENT ATTEINDRE ET DEPASSER LES 200 KM/H TRES PRES DE LA OU LE
CENTRE VA TOUCHER TERRE.
PLUIES: DES CUMULS DE 100-150 MM SONT ATTENDUS D'ICI SAMEDI SOIR SUR
UNE GRANDE PARTIE DES PROVINCES DE NAMPULA ET DU ZAMBEZE AVEC DES
CUMULS A 200 VOIRE 300 MM SUR LE RELIEF DE CES PROVINCES AINSI QU'A
PROXIMITE DE LA ZONE D'ATTERISSAGE.
MER: L'ETAT DE LA MER SE DEGRADE SENSIBLEMENT DEMAIN APRES-MIDI SUR
LES COTES DU NAMPULA. DES VAGUES POUVANT DEPASSER LES 6M SONT
PROBABLES SUR CERTAINES PORTIONS DES COTES DE LA PROVINCE LA NUIT
SUIVANTE. UNE SURCOTE DE L'ORDRE DE 1M A 1M50 (LOCALEMENT PLUS) VA
RENFORCER LE RISQUE DE SUBMERSION SUR LES COTES SITUEES A PROXIMITE
SUD DE LA OU LE CENTRE VA TOUCHER TERRE.

LES POPULATIONS DE LA ZONE SONT INVITEES A TERMINER AU PLUS VITE LES
PREPARATIFS A L'IMPACT D'UN CYCLONE POTENTIELLEMENT INTENSE ET A
SUIVRE LES CONSIGNES DES AUTORITES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 100059
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/9/20212022
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GOMBE)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/10 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.5 S / 43.8 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 45
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: NIL

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/10 12 UTC: 15.5 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 45

24H: 2022/03/11 00 UTC: 15.5 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SW: 120 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2022/03/11 12 UTC: 15.3 S / 39.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 0 NW: 0

48H: 2022/03/12 00 UTC: 15.3 S / 38.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2022/03/12 12 UTC: 15.3 S / 37.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

72H: 2022/03/13 00 UTC: 15.9 S / 37.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/14 00 UTC: 18.2 S / 38.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

120H: 2022/03/15 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 39.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 165 SW: 120 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 120 SW: 95 NW: 100

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0-

SINCE 18Z, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED WITH THE CONSTITUTION OF A
CDO WITH VERY COLD TOPS AND ASSOCIATED WITH A CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
MUCH MORE SUSTAINED THAN BEFORE. SKETCHES OF HOT SPOTS ARE EVEN
PERCEPTIBLE WITHIN THIS CDO. IN THE ABSENCE OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY TO
APPRECIATE THE IMPROVEMENT OF THE INNER-CORE, THE INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 55 KT AT THE UPPER LIMIT OF ALL AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AND
SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES.

NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS GLOBALLY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST UNTIL THE LANDFALL ON MOZAMBIQUE. GOMBE'S TRACK IS
DRIVEN MAINLY BY THE MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL, GIVING A GENERAL WESTWARD MOVEMENT, HENCE A LANDFALL IS
EXPECTED ON THE EAST COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE VERY EARLY ON FRIDAY AT THE
LEVEL OF NAMPULA PROVINCE. OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE RECEDING, A SMALL CUT-OFF ENTERING THE SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL AND THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE STRENGTHENING TO THE NORTHEAST
AND THEN EAST, GOMBE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN ON SATURDAY AND THEN
CURVE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY, EXITING INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL BY
MONDAY. THE COMPLEX AND CONFLICTING INFLUENCES ON THE SYSTEM BRING
CONSEQUENT UNCERTAINTY TO THE TIMING OF GOMBE'S TURN INLAND FROM
MOZAMBIQUE. THE CMRS TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON A MEDIAN SCENARIO
BETWEEN THE MAIN AVAILABLE MODELS WITH A TEMPORARY WESTWARD SHIFT
MADE ON DAY 4 IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, GOMBE BENEFITS FROM RATHER CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TO THE CONTINUATION OF INTENSIFICATION
DURING ITS CROSSING OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL: IMPORTANT OCEANIC
ENERGY CONTENT (SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT 29-30C) IN PARTICULAR AT THE
APPROACH OF THE COASTS, VERY GOOD ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE ON THE WEST
COAST AND A HUMID TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT. THE SHEAR OF MORE
SOUTH-EAST THAN EAST-SOUTH-EAST AND CLOSE TO 10-15 KT COULD HOWEVER
TEMPER THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS TEMPORARILY FOR A VERY SHORT TIME
BEFORE FADING AWAY NEXT NIGHT. MOREOVER, THE SMALL SIZE OF THE
CURRENT CORE OF THE SYSTEM COULD FAVOR RAPID INTENSITY CHANGES FOR
BOTH INTENSIFICATION AND WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
THEREFORE SUBJECT TO SOME UNCERTAINTY. NEVERTHELESS, THE PROBABILITY
REMAINS HIGH THAT GOMBE WILL BECOME A COMPACT BUT POWERFUL CYCLONE
BEFORE HITTING MOZAMBIQUE.
A CLASSICAL WEAKENING IS THEN EXPECTED ONCE THE SYSTEM IS INLAND FROM
MOZAMBIQUE. BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM EXITS THE SEA NEXT MONDAY, THE
PROBABILITY OF RE-INTENSIFICATION IS DOWN. AS AN UPPER TO MID-LEVELS
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST, AN INCREASE IN NORTHWESTERLY
SHEAR AND AN INTRUSION OF DRY MID-TROPOSPHERE AIR MAY OCCUR.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :
- COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO AND MAYOTTE : RESIDUAL PERIPHERAL INFLUENCE
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

- MOZAMBIQUE : THE LANDFALL OF A POTENTIALLY VERY DANGEROUS CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY MORNING OR LATE NIGHT FROM THURSDAY TO FRIDAY
OVER NAMPULA PROVINCE, PROBABLY BETWEEN THE CITIES OF NACALA IN THE
NORTH AND ANGOCHE IN THE SOUTH. CONDITIONS ARE STARTING TO
DETERIORATE SLOWLY TODAY BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT AND RAPID DETERIORATION
DURING THE FOLLOWING NIGHT IN THE IMPACT AREA.
WINDS: GOMBE IS A COMPACT CYCLONE, THE ARRIVAL OF GALE FORCE WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH GUSTS TO 90-100 KM/H IS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST
PART OF THE NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS MAY REACH AND EXCEED 200
KM/H VERY CLOSE TO WHERE THE CENTER WILL MAKE LANDFALL.
RAINS: ACCUMULATIONS OF 100-150 MM ARE EXPECTED BY SATURDAY EVENING
OVER A LARGE PART OF NAMPULA AND ZAMBEZE PROVINCES WITH ACCUMULATIONS
OF 200 TO 300 MM OVER ELEVATED TERRAINS OF THESE PROVINCES AS WELL AS
NEAR THE LANDFALL ZONE.
SEA: THE SEA STATE WILL DETERIORATE SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON
ON THE COASTS OF NAMPULA. WAVES OF UP TO 6M ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER
PORTIONS OF THE COASTLINE DURING THE FOLLOWING NIGHT. A STORMSURGE OF
ABOUT 1M TO 1M50 (LOCALLY MORE) WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF SEA
FLOODING NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION.

THE POPULATIONS OF THE AREA ARE INVITED TO FINISH AS SOON AS POSSIBLE
THE PREPARATIONS FOR THE IMPACT OF A POTENTIALLY INTENSE CYCLONE AND
TO FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS OF THE AUTHORITIES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 100030
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/03/2022
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 016/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 10/03/2022 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GOMBE) 983 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.5 S / 43.8 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 150 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 15 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 20 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 40 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/03/10 AT 12 UTC:
15.5 S / 42.3 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2022/03/11 AT 00 UTC:
15.5 S / 40.9 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 092100
WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 220309200849
2022030918 19S GOMBE 005 01 250 09 SATL 030
T000 153S 0443E 060
T012 155S 0427E 080 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 155S 0410E 100 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 155S 0396E 085 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 155S 0385E 055
T072 156S 0375E 030
T096 162S 0376E 025
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 15.3S 44.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 44.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 15.5S 42.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 15.5S 41.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 15.5S 39.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 15.5S 38.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 15.6S 37.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 16.2S 37.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 15.3S 43.9E.
09MAR22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 283
NM NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 100300Z, 100900Z, 101500Z AND 102100Z.//
1922030412 160S 563E 15
1922030418 157S 554E 15
1922030500 156S 549E 15
1922030506 158S 544E 15
1922030512 160S 541E 20
1922030518 164S 544E 20
1922030600 163S 547E 25
1922030606 161S 545E 25
1922030612 160S 535E 25
1922030618 154S 529E 25
1922030700 152S 524E 25
1922030706 152S 521E 25
1922030712 155S 518E 30
1922030718 156S 513E 35
1922030800 155S 504E 35
1922030806 154S 494E 30
1922030812 150S 484E 30
1922030818 151S 476E 30
1922030900 149S 469E 45
1922030906 148S 461E 50
1922030912 150S 452E 55
1922030912 150S 452E 55
1922030918 153S 443E 60
1922030918 153S 443E 60
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 15.3S 44.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 44.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 15.5S 42.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 15.5S 41.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 15.5S 39.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 15.5S 38.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 15.6S 37.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 16.2S 37.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 15.3S 43.9E.
09MAR22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 283
NM NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 100300Z, 100900Z, 101500Z AND 102100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 091853
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 16/9/20212022
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 9 (GOMBE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 09/03/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.3 S / 44.2 E
(QUINZE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET QUARANTE QUATRE DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 989 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 45
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 10/03/2022 06 UTC: 15.4 S / 42.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SO: 130 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 45 NO: 45

24H: 10/03/2022 18 UTC: 15.5 S / 41.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 175 SO: 150 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 45

36H: 11/03/2022 06 UTC: 15.4 S / 40.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SO: 95 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 65 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 30 NO: 0

48H: 11/03/2022 18 UTC: 15.3 S / 39.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SO: 0 NO: 0

60H: 12/03/2022 06 UTC: 15.1 S / 37.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

72H: 12/03/2022 18 UTC: 15.1 S / 37.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 13/03/2022 18 UTC: 16.5 S / 38.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

120H: 14/03/2022 18 UTC: 19.1 S / 39.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 195 SO: 130 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SO: 95 NO: 100

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE A PEU EVOLUEE DEPUIS 12Z. UNE BANDE
INCURVEE RESTE PRESENTE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST MAIS SEMBLE SE
DESOLIDARISER D'UN PETIT CDO D'UN PEU PLUS DE 60 MN DE DIAMETRE QUI
S'EST MIS EN PLACE AU-DESSUS DU CENTRE. L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE
ASSOCIEE Y EST TOUTEFOIS ENCORE ASSEZ FLUCTUANTE. L'INTENSITE ESTIMEE
EST INCHANGEE A 50 KT EN ETANT PROCHE DES ESTIMATIONS SUBJECTIVES ET
D'UNE ESTIMATION SSMIS A 45-50 KT A 1550Z.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT DANS LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE QUI EST SEULEMENT
TRES LEGEREMENT DECALEE VERS LE SUD A COURT TERME ET JUSQU'A VENDREDI
INCLUS. LA TRAJECTOIRE DE GOMBE EST PILOTEE PRINCIPALEMENT PAR LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AU SUD DU CANAL DU
MOZAMBIQUE, DONNANT UN MOUVEMENT GENERAL VERS L'OUEST, D'OU UN
ATTERRISSAGE PREVU SUR LA COTE EST DU MOZAMBIQUE VENDREDI AU NIVEAU
DE LA PROVINCE DE NAMPULA. EN COURS DE WEEK-END, SUITE A
L'ELOIGNEMENT DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE, A L'INCURSION D'UN PETIT
CUT-OFF AU SUD DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE ET AU RENFORCEMENT DE LA
DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST PUIS A L'EST, GOMBE DEVRAIT
RALENTIR SA COURSE SAMEDI PUIS INCURVER SA TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION
DU SUD-EST A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, L'AMENANT A RESSORTIR DANS LE CANAL
DU MOZAMBIQUE D'ICI LUNDI. LES INFLUENCES COMPLEXES ET
CONTRADICTOIRES AUXQUELLES LE SYSTEME EST SOUMIS APPORTENT UNE
INCERTITUDE CONSEQUENTE SUR LA CHRONOLOGIE DU VIRAGE QU'EFFECTUERA
GOMBE SUR LES TERRES DU MOZAMBIQUE. LA TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS EST BASEE
SUR UN SCENARIO MEDIAN ENTRE LES PRINCIPAUX MODELES DISPONIBLES.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, GOMBE BENEFICIE DE CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES FAVORABLES A LA POURSUITE D'UNE FRANCHE
INTENSIFICATION AU COURS DE SA TRAVERSEE DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE :
CONTENU ENERGETIQUE OCEANIQUE IMPORTANT (TEMPERATURES DE SURFACE A
29-30C) NOTAMMENT A L'APPROCHE DES COTES, TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE COTE OUEST ET UN ENVIRONNEMENT TROPOSPHERIQUE HUMIDE. LE
CISAILLEMENT D'EST-SUD-EST AVOISINANT LES 10-15 KT NE DEVRAIT PAS
TROP INHIBER L'INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME AU VU DU DEPLACEMENT DE
CELUI-CI DANS UNE DIRECTION SIMILAIRE. DE PLUS, LA PETITE TAILLE DU
COEUR ACTUEL DU SYSTEME POURRAIT FAVORISER UNE FORTE REACTIVITE
FAVORABLE A UNE INTENSIFICATION RAPIDE, CE QUI EST ENVISAGE
EXPLICITEMENT DANS LA PRESENTE PREVISION, FAISANT GRIMPER GOMBE AU
STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE AVANT SON ATTERRISSAGE SUR LE
MOZAMBIQUE. CETTE PREVISION DE PIC D'INTENSITE EST NEANMOINS ASSORTIE
D'UNE INCERTITUDE UN PEU PLUS FORTE QUE LA MOYENNE. UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT CLASSIQUE EST ATTENDUE UNE FOIS LE SYSTEME SUR LES
TERRES DU MOZAMBIQUE. AU MOMENT DE LA RESSORTIE EN MER PREVUE LUNDI
PROCHAIN, LA REINTENSIFICATION DEVRAIT ETRE ASSEZ LENTE DANS UN
PREMIER TEMPS, EN RAISON D'UNE CIRCULATION ASSEZ LARGE ET MAL
CONSOLIDEE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :
- MADAGASCAR : LES PLUIES ASSOCIEES A GOMBE DEVRAIENT PROGRESSIVEMENT
S'ATTENUER AVEC L'ELOIGNEMENT VERS L'OUEST DU SYSTEME.
- ARCHIPEL DES COMORES ET MAYOTTE : QUELQUES FORTS ORAGES SONT
POSSIBLES EN PERIPHERIE NORD DU SYSTEME JUSQU'A JEUDI.
- MOZAMBIQUE : L'ATTERRISSAGE D'UN CYCLONE POTENTIELLEMENT TRES
DANGEREUX EST A PREVOIR VENDREDI EN MATINEE OU EN FIN DE NUIT DE
JEUDI A VENDREDI SUR LA PROVINCE DE NAMPULA, VRAISEMBLABLEMENT ENTRE
LES VILLES DE NACALA AU NORD ET D'ANGOCHE AU SUD. LES CONDITIONS
COMMENCENT A SE DEGRADER LENTEMENT DEMAIN AVANT UNE DETERIORATION
SIGNIFICATIVE LA NUIT SUIVANTE DANS LA ZONE D'IMPACT. VIOLENTES
RAFALES DE VENT POUVANT ATTEINDRE ET DEPASSER LES 200 KM/H, PLUIES
INTENSES (200-400 MM PRES DE LA ZONE D'IMPACT ET LES RELIEFS
AVOISINANTS) ET ETAT DE MER FORTEMENT DEGRADE (FORTES VAGUES A QUOI
S'AJOUTE UNE SURCOTE DE L'ORDRE DE 1M VOIRE PLUS, POUVANT S'ETENDRE
ASSEZ LOIN AU SUD DU CENTRE DU CYCLONE). LES POPULATIONS DE LA ZONE
SONT INVITEES A COMMENCER A SE PREPARER A L'IMPACT D'UN CYCLONE
POTENTIELLEMENT INTENSE ET A SUIVRE LES CONSIGNES DES AUTORITES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 091853
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/9/20212022
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GOMBE)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/09 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.3 S / 44.2 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/10 06 UTC: 15.4 S / 42.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 45

24H: 2022/03/10 18 UTC: 15.5 S / 41.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

36H: 2022/03/11 06 UTC: 15.4 S / 40.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 95 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 65 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 30 NW: 0

48H: 2022/03/11 18 UTC: 15.3 S / 39.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 0 NW: 0

60H: 2022/03/12 06 UTC: 15.1 S / 37.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

72H: 2022/03/12 18 UTC: 15.1 S / 37.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/13 18 UTC: 16.5 S / 38.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

120H: 2022/03/14 18 UTC: 19.1 S / 39.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 195 SW: 130 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 95 NW: 100

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE 12Z. A CURVED BAND IS
STILL PRESENT IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE BUT SEEMS TO BE DISSOCIATING
FROM A SMALL CDO OF A LITTLE MORE THAN 60 MN DIAMETER THAT HAS BEEN
SET UP OVER THE CENTER. THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS HOWEVER
STILL QUITE FLUCTUATING. THE ESTIMATED INTENSITY IS UNCHANGED AT 50
KT BEING CLOSE TO THE SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES AND TO A SSMIS ESTIMATE AT
45-50 KT AT 1550Z.

NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS ONLY VERY SLIGHTLY SHIFTED
TO THE SOUTH IN THE SHORT TERM AND UNTIL FRIDAY INCLUDED. GOMBE'S
TRACK IS MAINLY DRIVEN BY THE MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, GIVING A GENERAL WESTWARD MOVEMENT, HENCE A
LANDING IS EXPECTED ON THE EAST COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE ON FRIDAY AT THE
LEVEL OF NAMPULA PROVINCE. OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE RECEDING, A SMALL CUT-OFF SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AND
THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE STRENGTHENING TO THE NORTHEAST AND THEN
EAST, GOMBE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN ON SATURDAY AND THEN CURVE
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY, EXITING INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL BY MONDAY.
THE COMPLEX AND CONFLICTING INFLUENCES ON THE SYSTEM BRING CONSEQUENT
UNCERTAINTY TO THE TIMING OF GOMBE'S TURN INLAND FROM MOZAMBIQUE. THE
CMRS TRACK IS BASED ON A MEDIAN SCENARIO BETWEEN THE MAIN AVAILABLE
MODELS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, GOMBE BENEFITS FROM ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE TO THE CONTINUATION OF A FRANK INTENSIFICATION DURING ITS
CROSSING OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL: IMPORTANT OCEANIC ENERGY CONTENT
(SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT 29-30C) IN PARTICULAR AT THE APPROACH OF THE
COASTS, VERY GOOD ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE ON THE WEST COAST AND A HUMID
TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT. THE EAST-SOUTHEAST SHEAR AROUND 10-15 KT
SHOULD NOT INHIBIT TOO MUCH THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM IN VIEW
OF THE MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM IN A SIMILAR DIRECTION. MOREOVER, THE
SMALL SIZE OF THE CURRENT CORE OF THE SYSTEM COULD FAVOR A STRONG
REACTIVITY FAVORABLE TO A RAPID INTENSIFICATION, WHICH IS EXPLICITLY
ENVISAGED IN THE PRESENT FORECAST, MAKING GOMBE REACHING THE STAGE OF
AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE ITS LANDFALL OVER MOZAMBIQUE. THIS
FORECAST OF PEAK INTENSITY IS, HOWEVER, SUBJECT TO SOMEWHAT GREATER
THAN AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY. A CLASSICAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED ONCE THE
SYSTEM IS INLAND FROM MOZAMBIQUE. WHEN THE SYSTEM GOES OUT TO SEA
NEXT MONDAY, THE REINTENSIFICATION SHOULD BE RATHER SLOW AT FIRST,
BECAUSE OF A RATHER LARGE AND POORLY CONSOLIDATED CIRCULATION.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :
- MADAGASCAR : THE RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH GOMBE SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY
DIMINISH WITH THE WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM.
- COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO AND MAYOTTE : SOME HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM UNTIL THURSDAY.
- MOZAMBIQUE : THE LANDFALL OF A POTENTIALLY VERY DANGEROUS CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY MORNING OR LATE NIGHT FROM THURSDAY TO FRIDAY
OVER THE PROVINCE OF NAMPULA, PROBABLY BETWEEN THE CITIES OF NACALA
IN THE NORTH AND ANGOCHE IN THE SOUTH. CONDITIONS START TO SLOWLY
DETERIORATE TOMORROW BEFORE SIGNIFICANT DETERIORATION THE FOLLOWING
NIGHT IN THE IMPACT AREA. VIOLENT WIND GUSTS THAT CAN REACH AND
EXCEED 200 KM/H, INTENSE RAINFALL (200-400 MM NEAR THE IMPACT ZONE
AND THE SURROUNDING ELEVATED TERRAINS) AND STRONGLY DETERIORATED SEA
CONDITIONS (STRONG WAVES AND A SURGE OF 1M OR MORE THAT CAN EXTEND
QUITE FAR SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE CENTER). THE POPULATIONS OF THE AREA
ARE INVITED TO START PREPARING FOR THE IMPACT OF A POTENTIALLY
INTENSE CYCLONE AND TO FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS OF THE AUTHORITIES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 091825
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/03/2022
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 015/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 09/03/2022 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GOMBE) 989 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.3 S / 44.2 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 70 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 150 TO 300 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 15
NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 40
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/03/10 AT 06 UTC:
15.4 S / 42.8 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2022/03/10 AT 18 UTC:
15.5 S / 41.5 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 091239
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/9/20212022
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 9 (GOMBE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 09/03/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.0 S / 45.4 E
(QUINZE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET QUARANTE CINQ DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 989 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 20 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 45
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 30 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 10/03/2022 00 UTC: 15.1 S / 43.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

24H: 10/03/2022 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SO: 155 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

36H: 11/03/2022 00 UTC: 15.4 S / 41.1 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SO: 165 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

48H: 11/03/2022 12 UTC: 15.3 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SO: 150 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 0 NO: 0

60H: 12/03/2022 00 UTC: 15.1 S / 38.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

72H: 12/03/2022 12 UTC: 15.0 S / 37.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 13/03/2022 12 UTC: 15.9 S / 37.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

120H: 14/03/2022 12 UTC: 18.6 S / 39.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 215 SO: 165 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 75

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, GOMBE A GARDE UNE STRUCTURE EN BANDE
INCURVEE S'ENROULANT DE PLUS EN PLUS AUTOUR D'UN CENTRE TRES COMPACT,
TANDIS QUE LA PARTIE EXTERIEURE DE LA BANDE INCURVEE SEMBLE UN PEU SE
DETACHER DE LA PARTIE CENTRALE SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES.
L'ENROULEMENT BASE SUR L'IMAGERIE SATELLITAIRE CLASSIQUE PEUT ETRE
ESTIME A PRES DE 1.0 SUR UNE SPIRALE LOG10, DONNANT UN DT DE 3.5. LA
CONVECTION SEMBLE DEVENIR DE PLUS EN PLUS CONCENTREE AUTOUR DU
CENTRE, SIGNE D'UNE PROBABLE TRANSITION VERS UNE CONFIGURATION EN
CENTRE NOYE DANS LA MASSE SOUS UN CDO DE PETITE DIMENSION. UNE PASSE
MICRO-ONDES AMSR2 A 1021Z REVELE UN TRES FORT ENROULEMENT CONVECTIF
SUR PLUS D'UN TOUR ET DEMI, CE QUI POURRAIT INDIQUER QUE L'INTENSITE
REELLE EST SUPERIEURE A 3.5 (STADE PLUS MATURE DE LA CONFIGURATION EN
BANDE INCURVEE). EN L'ABSENCE D'AUTRES DONNEES OBJECTIVES,
L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME EST ESTIMEE A DEFAUT A 50 KT, POURSUIVANT DONC
L'INTENSIFICATION AMORCEE DEPUIS CE MATIN, MAIS AVEC UNE MARGE
D'ERREUR CONSEQUENTE SUR CETTE ESTIMATION.

A COURT TERME ET JUSQU'A VENDREDI INCLUS, LA TRAJECTOIRE DE GOMBE EST
PILOTEE PRINCIPALEMENT PAR LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE AU SUD DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE, DONNANT UN MOUVEMENT
GENERAL VERS L'OUEST, D'OU UN ATTERRISSAGE PREVU SUR LA COTE EST DU
MOZAMBIQUE VENDREDI AU NIVEAU DE LA PROVINCE DE NAMPULA. EN COURS DE
WEEK-END, SUITE A L'ELOIGNEMENT DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE, A
L'INCURSION D'UN PETIT CUT-OFF AU SUD DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE ET AU
RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST PUIS A
L'EST, GOMBE DEVRAIT RALENTIR SA COURSE SAMEDI PUIS INCURVER SA
TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DU SUD-EST A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, L'AMENANT A
RESSORTIR DANS LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE D'ICI LUNDI. LES INFLUENCES
COMPLEXES ET CONTRADICTOIRES AUXQUELLES LE SYSTEME EST SOUMIS
APPORTENT UNE INCERTITUDE CONSEQUENTE SUR LA CHRONOLOGIE DU VIRAGE
QU'EFFECTUERA GOMBE SUR LES TERRES DU MOZAMBIQUE. LA TRAJECTOIRE DU
CMRS EST BASEE SUR UN SCENARIO MEDIAN ENTRE LES PRINCIPAUX MODELES
DISPONIBLES.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, GOMBE BENEFICIE DE CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES FAVORABLES A LA POURSUITE D'UNE FRANCHE
INTENSIFICATION AU COURS DE SA TRAVERSEE DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE :
CONTENU ENERGETIQUE OCEANIQUE IMPORTANT (TEMPERATURES DE SURFACE A
29-30C), TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE COTE OUEST ET UN
ENVIRONNEMENT TROPOSPHERIQUE HUMIDE. LE CISAILLEMENT D'EST-SUD-EST
AVOISINANT LES 15 KT NE DEVRAIT PAS TROP INHIBER L'INTENSIFICATION DU
SYSTEME AU VU DU DEPLACEMENT DE CELUI-CI DANS UNE DIRECTION
SIMILAIRE. DE PLUS, LA PETITE TAILLE DU COEUR ACTUEL DU SYSTEME
POURRAIT FAVORISER UNE FORTE REACTIVITE FAVORABLE A UNE
INTENSIFICATION RAPIDE, CE QUI EST ENVISAGE EXPLICITEMENT DANS LA
PRESENTE PREVISION, FAISANT GRIMPER GOMBE AU STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE AVANT SON ATTERRISSAGE SUR LE MOZAMBIQUE. CETTE
PREVISION DE PIC D'INTENSITE EST NEANMOINS ASSORTIE D'UNE INCERTITUDE
UN PEU PLUS FORTE QUE LA MOYENNE. UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT CLASSIQUE EST
ATTENDUE UNE FOIS LE SYSTEME SUR LES TERRES DU MOZAMBIQUE. AU MOMENT
DE LA RESSORTIE EN MER PREVUE LUNDI PROCHAIN, LA REINTENSIFICATION
DEVRAIT ETRE ASSEZ LENTE DANS UN PREMIER TEMPS, EN RAISON D'UNE
CIRCULATION ASSEZ LARGE ET MAL CONSOLIDEE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :
- MADAGASCAR : LES PLUIES ASSOCIEES A GOMBE DEVRAIENT PROGRESSIVEMENT
S'ATTENUER AVEC L'ELOIGNEMENT VERS L'OUEST DU SYSTEME.
- ARCHIPEL DES COMORES ET MAYOTTE : QUELQUES FORTS ORAGES SONT
POSSIBLES EN PERIPHERIE NORD DU SYSTEME JUSQU'A JEUDI.
- MOZAMBIQUE : L'ATTERRISSAGE D'UN CYCLONE DANGEREUX EST A PREVOIR
VENDREDI EN MATINEE SUR LA PROVINCE DE NAMPULA, AVEC UN TIMING ET UNE
LOCALISATION ENCORE INCERTAINES. VIOLENTES RAFALES DE VENT POUVANT
AVOISINER 200 KM/H, PLUIES INTENSES (200-400 MM PRES DE LA ZONE
D'IMPACT) ET ETAT DE MER FORTEMENT DEGRADE (FORTES VAGUES A QUOI
S'AJOUTE UNE SURCOTE DE L'ORDRE DE 1M VOIRE PLUS, POUVANT S'ETENDRE
ASSEZ LOIN AU SUD DU CENTRE DU CYCLONE). LES POPULATIONS DE LA ZONE
SONT INVITEES A COMMENCER A SE PREPARER A L'IMPACT D'UN CYCLONE
POTENTIELLEMENT INTENSE ET A SUIVRE LES CONSIGNES DES AUTORITES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 091239
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/9/20212022
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GOMBE)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/09 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.0 S / 45.4 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FIVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 20 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 30 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/10 00 UTC: 15.1 S / 43.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

24H: 2022/03/10 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2022/03/11 00 UTC: 15.4 S / 41.1 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2022/03/11 12 UTC: 15.3 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 0

60H: 2022/03/12 00 UTC: 15.1 S / 38.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

72H: 2022/03/12 12 UTC: 15.0 S / 37.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/13 12 UTC: 15.9 S / 37.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

120H: 2022/03/14 12 UTC: 18.6 S / 39.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 75

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, GOMBE HAS KEPT A CURVED BAND PATTERN
WRAPPING MORE AND MORE AROUND A VERY COMPACT CENTER, WHILE THE OUTER
PART OF THE CURVED BAND HAS SLIGHTLY DETACHED ITSELF FROM THE CENTRAL
PART ON THE LAST IMAGES. BASED ON CLASSICAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, THE
CURVED BAND WRAPS ABOUT 1.0 ON A LOG10 SPIRAL, GIVING A DT OF 3.5.
CONVECTION SEEMS TO BECOME MORE AND MORE CONCENTRATED AROUND THE
CENTER, SIGN OF A PROBABLE TRANSITION TO A CDO PATTERN. AN 1021Z
AMSR2 MICROWAVE PASS REVEALS EVEN MORE ENHANCED WRAPPING OF
CONVECTIVE BANDS AROUND A TIGHT CENTER, WHICH COULD INDICATE THAT
REAL INTENSITY IS HIGHER THAN 3.5 (MORE MATURE STAGE OF THE CURVED
BAND PATTERN). IN THE ABSENCE OF OTHER OBJECTIVE DATA, THE SYSTEM'S
INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 50 KT, CONTINUING THE INTENSIFICATION
STARTED THIS MORNING, BUT WITH A CONSEQUENT MARGIN OF ERROR ON THIS
ESTIMATE.

IN THE SHORT TERM AND UNTIL FRIDAY INCLUDED, GOMBE'S TRACK IS MAINLY
DRIVEN BY THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH OF
THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, GIVING A GENERAL WESTWARD MOVEMENT, HENCE AN
EXPECTED LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE ON FRIDAY ON THE
PROVINCE OF NAMPULA. OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
RECEDING AND A SMALL CUT-OFF SLIDING TOWARDS THE SOUTH OF THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL WHILE THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE SHOULD STRENGTHEN
TO THE NORTHEAST AND THEN EAST OF THE SYSTEM, GOMBE IS EXPECTED TO
SLOW DOWN ON SATURDAY AND THEN CURVE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY, EXITING
BACK INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL BY MONDAY. THE COMPLEX AND
CONFLICTING STEERING INFLUENCES BRING CONSEQUENT UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
THE TIMING OF GOMBE'S SOUTHEASTWARD TURN INLAND MOZAMBIQUE. THE
RSMC'S TRACK IS BASED ON A MEDIAN SCENARIO BETWEEN MAIN AVAILABLE
MODELS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, GOMBE BENEFITS FROM VERY CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WHICH SHOULD FAVOR FURTHER FRANK
INTENSIFICATION DURING ITS CROSSING OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL:
IMPORTANT OCEANIC ENERGY CONTENT (SST AT 29-30C), VERY GOOD WESTWARD
UPPER DIVERGENCE AND MOIST TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT. THE
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR AROUND 15 KT SHOULD NOT OFFSET THE
SYSTEM'S INTENSIFICATION TOO MUCH, AS IT IS MOVING IN A SIMILAR
DIRECTION. MOREOVER, THE SMALL SIZE OF THE CURRENT CORE COULD FAVOR
HIGH REACTIVITY AND COULD FAVOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION, WHICH IS
EXPLICITLY FORECAST, MAKING GOMBE REACH THE STAGE OF AN INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE ITS LANDFALL OVER MOZAMBIQUE. THIS FORECAST
OF PEAK INTENSITY IS, HOWEVER, SUBJECT TO SOMEWHAT GREATER THAN
AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY. CLASSICAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED ONCE THE SYSTEM
IS OVERLAND. WHEN THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT TO SEA NEXT MONDAY,
REINTENSIFICATION SHOULD BE QUITE SLOW AT FIRST, DUE TO A RATHER
LARGE AND POORLY CONSOLIDATED CIRCULATION.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :
- MADAGASCAR : HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH GOMBE SHOULD
PROGRESSIVELY DECREASE AS SYSTEM GRADUALLY MOVES AWAY.
- COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO AND MAYOTTE : SOME HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM UNTIL THURSDAY.
- MOZAMBIQUE : LANDFALL OF A DANGEROUS CYCLONE IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY
MORNING OVER THE PROVINCE OF NAMPULA (TIMING AND LOCATION STILL
UNCERTAIN). VIOLENT WIND GUSTS THAT COULD REACH AROUND 200 KM/H,
INTENSE RAINFALL (200-400 MM NEAR THE IMPACT AREA) AND A DANGEROUS
SEA STATE (HIGH WAVES AND A STORM SURGE OF ABOUT 1M OR MORE THAT
COULD EXTEND QUITE FAR SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE'S CENTER). LOCAL
POPULATIONS ARE INVITED TO START PREPARING FOR THE IMPACT OF A
POTENTIALLY INTENSE CYCLONE AND TO FOLLOW LOCAL AUTHORITIES
INSTRUCTIONS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 091211
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/03/2022
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 09/03/2022 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GOMBE) 989 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.0 S / 45.4 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FIVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 280 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 15
NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 40
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/03/10 AT 00 UTC:
15.1 S / 43.8 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2022/03/10 AT 12 UTC:
15.4 S / 42.4 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 090900
WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 220309080022
2022030906 19S GOMBE 004 01 275 09 SATL 045
T000 148S 0460E 045
T012 150S 0444E 055 R050 015 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 152S 0428E 065 R064 005 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD
T036 154S 0417E 075 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 075 NW QD
T048 154S 0406E 070 R064 015 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 035 NW QD
T072 153S 0386E 040
T096 154S 0375E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 14.8S 46.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 46.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 15.0S 44.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 15.2S 42.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 15.4S 41.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 15.4S 40.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 15.3S 38.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 15.4S 37.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 45.6E.
09MAR22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 261
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z AND
100900Z.//
1922030412 160S 563E 15
1922030418 157S 554E 15
1922030500 156S 549E 15
1922030506 158S 544E 15
1922030512 160S 541E 20
1922030518 164S 544E 20
1922030600 163S 547E 25
1922030606 161S 545E 25
1922030612 160S 535E 25
1922030618 154S 529E 25
1922030700 152S 524E 25
1922030706 152S 521E 25
1922030712 155S 518E 30
1922030718 156S 513E 35
1922030800 155S 504E 35
1922030806 154S 494E 30
1922030812 150S 484E 30
1922030818 151S 476E 30
1922030900 149S 469E 45
1922030906 148S 460E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 14.8S 46.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 46.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 15.0S 44.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 15.2S 42.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 15.4S 41.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 15.4S 40.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 15.3S 38.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 15.4S 37.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 45.6E.
09MAR22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 261
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z AND
100900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 090612
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/03/2022
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 09/03/2022 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GOMBE) 994 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.9 S / 46.1 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN 180 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
300 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 15 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 20 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 25 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 30
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/03/09 AT 18 UTC:
15.1 S / 44.7 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2022/03/10 AT 06 UTC:
15.3 S / 43.3 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 090040
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/9/20212022
1.A DEPRESSION TROPICALE 9 (GOMBE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 09/03/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.0 S / 46.9 E
(QUINZE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET QUARANTE SIX DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 997 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 55 NO: 55

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 09/03/2022 12 UTC: 15.1 S / 45.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SO: 0 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 55

24H: 10/03/2022 00 UTC: 15.1 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SO: 85 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 0 SO: 55 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 35 NO: 35

36H: 10/03/2022 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 43.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SO: 155 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 100 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 35

48H: 11/03/2022 00 UTC: 15.5 S / 41.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SO: 150 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 100 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

60H: 11/03/2022 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 40.5 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SO: 85 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 35 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 30 NO: 35

72H: 12/03/2022 00 UTC: 15.3 S / 39.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SO: 0 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 13/03/2022 00 UTC: 15.6 S / 38.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

120H: 14/03/2022 00 UTC: 18.2 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5

GOMBE EST RESSORTI DANS LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE, PEU APRES LE RESEAU
DE 18UTC. PAR LA MEME OCCASION, SA STRUCTURE NUAGEUSE S'EST DENSIFIEE
ET REFROIDIE, AVEC NOTAMMENT UNE TRES FORTE ACTIVITE ELECTRIQUE DANS
LE DEMI-CERCLE NORD DU SYSTEME. L'AMPLIFICATION DE LA STRUCTURE DU
SYSTEME ASSOCIEE A D'IMPOSANTS PANACHES DE NUAGES ELEVES, A RENDU LA
LOCALISATION DU CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES PLUS DIFFICILE ET CE SANS
L'APPORT DE DONNEES EXTERNES COMME LES DONNEES MICRO-ONDES OU
DIFFUSIOMETRIQUES. LES DONNEES DE SURFACE TRANSMISES REGULIEREMENT
PAR LE SERVICE METEOROLOGIQUE DE MADAGASCAR, ONT PERMIS TOUTEFOIS DE
RECALER A LA MARGE LA POSITION INITIALE DE 18UTC. L'ESTIMATION
D'INTENSITE TOURNE AUTOUR D'UN CI DE 2.5 ET EST BASEE SUR UN
CONSENSUS ENTRE LES ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES (ADT(CIMSS + NOAA)/AIDT)
ET L'ANALYSE DVORAK DE 00 UTC. GOMBE EST DONC CLASSE AU STADE DE
DEPRESSION TROPICALE.

LA TRAJECTOIRE DE GOMBE EST IMPRIME A LA FOIS PAR LA PRESENCE DE LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR, ET UNE SECONDE,
MOINS ROBUSTE SITUEE SUR LA ZONE PROCHE EQUATORIALE AU NORD IMMEDIAT
DU SYSTEME. LA PRESENCE DE CES DEUX CENTRES D'ACTION VA AVOIR POUR
EFFET DE GENERER DES FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES POUVANT
EXPLIQUER LES DIFFERENCES DE TIMING CONSTATEES ENTRE LES MODELES.
EN EFFET, BIEN QUE CEUX-CI S'ACCORDENT GLOBALEMENT POUR UNE DIRECTION
GENERALE VERS L'OUEST A OUEST-SUD-OUEST, DU A LA PREPONDERANCE DE LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE, DES DIFFERENCES EN TERMES DE VITESSE DE
DEPLACEMENT DEMEURENT DEPUIS QUELQUES RESEAUX. IFS ET AROME RESTENT
PLUS RAPIDE QUE GEFS, PEUT A TRE EN RAISON DE CES FLUX
CONTRADICTOIRES QUI OPERENT AU DESSUS DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE, MAIS
EGALEMENT EN RAISON DE LEURS DIFFERENCES D'APPRECIATION DANS LE
CREUSEMENT DU SYSTEME. LA PREVISION OFFICIELLE DU CMRS EST BASE SUR
UN CONSENSUS DES PRINCIPAUX MODELES DISPONIBLES.

SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, GOMBE DEVRAIT SE RAPPROCHER PROGRESSIVEMENT DE
LA COTE EST DU MOZAMBIQUE A PARTIR DE VENDREDI. BIEN QUE LA
DISPERSION DES MODELES SOIT IMPORTANTE A CES ECHEANCES, TRADUISANT
UNE FORTE INCERTITUDE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE PREVUE, UN ATTERRISSAGE
RESTE TOUTEFOIS PROBABLE AU NIVEAU DE LA PROVINCE DE NAMPULA
(MOZAMBIQUE). LA ZONE PRECISE D'IMPACT RESTE ENCORE TRES INCERTAINE
ET DEVRA ETRE AFFINEE ULTERIEUREMENT. EN TOUTE FIN DE SEMAINE, SUITE
AU GLISSEMENT PROGRESSIF DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE VERS L'OUEST ET
LE RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE A L'EST, GOMBE
DEVRAIT RALENTIR SA COURSE DANS UN PREMIER TEMPS PUIS INCURVER DANS
UN SECOND TEMPS SA TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DU SUD-EST, L'AMENANT
POTENTIELLEMENT DANS LE SUD DU CANAL.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, GOMBE DEVRAIT BENEFICIER SUR LE CANAL DU
MOZAMBIQUE, DE CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES GLOBALEMENT FAVORABLES A
UNE INTENSIFICATION: CONTENU ENERGETIQUE OCEANIQUE IMPORTANT, BONNE
DIVERGENCE EN ALTITUDE COTE OUEST, CONTREBALANCE TOUTEFOIS PAR UNE
LEGERE CONTRAINTE D'EST APPORTANT UN PEU D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPO,
MAIS QUI NE DEVRAIT PAS ENRAYER LES VELLEITES D'INTENSIFICATION DU
SYSTEME AU VU DU DEPLACEMENT DE CELUI-CI DANS LA MEME DIRECTION. UNE
INTENSIFICATION SOUTENUE A FORTE EST DONC ENVISAGEE ET IL EST DE PLUS
EN PLUS PROBABLE QUE LE SYSTEME DEVIENNE UN PHENOMENE MATURE A PARTIR
DE JEUDI / VENDREDI. UN ATTERRISAGE AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL
VOIRE MEME DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE SUR LES COTES MOZAMBICAINES
RESTE LARGEMENT POSSIBLE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :
- POUR MADAGASCAR, GOMBE DEVRAIT FOURNIR DES CUMULS DE PLUIE UN PEU
MOINS INTENSES SUR L'OUEST DE MADAGASCAR DE L'ORDRE DE 50 A 100MM
MAXIMUM SUR LA PROVINCE DE SOFIA ET BOENY. L'AMELIORATION DEVRAIT
INTERVENIR PROGRESSIVEMENT EN MATINEE A MESURE DE L'ELOIGNEMENT DU
SYSTEME.
- POUR L'ARCHIPEL DES COMORES ET LE DA PARTEMENT DE MAYOTTE, LES
FORTES PLUIES SERONT POSSIBLES EN PERIPHERIE DE GOMBE DE MANIERE
EPISODIQUE ENTRE AUJOURD'HUI ET DEMAIN JEUDI.
- EN FIN DE SEMAINE, GOMBE POURRAIT CONSTITUER UNE MENACE PROBABLE
POUR LA PROVINCE DE NAMPULA AU MOZAMBIQUE. CEPENDANT IL EST ENCORE
TROP TOT POUR QUANTIFIER LES IMPACTS DU SYSTEME ET LE TIMING ASSOCIE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 090040
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/9/20212022
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 (GOMBE)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/09 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.0 S / 46.9 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SIX DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 55 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/09 12 UTC: 15.1 S / 45.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SW: 0 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 55

24H: 2022/03/10 00 UTC: 15.1 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 85 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 0 SW: 55 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2022/03/10 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 43.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 100 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 35

48H: 2022/03/11 00 UTC: 15.5 S / 41.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 150 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

60H: 2022/03/11 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 40.5 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SW: 85 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 30 NW: 35

72H: 2022/03/12 00 UTC: 15.3 S / 39.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/13 00 UTC: 15.6 S / 38.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

120H: 2022/03/14 00 UTC: 18.2 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5

GOMBE HAS EMERGED IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, SHORTLY AFTER 18UTC. AT
THE SAME TIME, ITS CLOUD STRUCTURE HAS BECOME DENSER AND COLDER, WITH
A VERY STRONG ELECTRICAL ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
SYSTEM. THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM STRUCTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
LARGE PLUMES OF HIGH CLOUDS, HAS MADE THE LOCALIZATION OF THE LLC
MORE DIFFICULT WITHOUT THE CONTRIBUTION OF EXTERNAL DATAS SUCH AS
MICROWAVE IMAGERY OR SCATTEROMETER DATA. THE SURFACE DATA TRANSMITTED
REGULARLY BY THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MADAGASCAR, ALLOWED
HOWEVER TO ADJUST AT THE MARGIN THE INITIAL POSITION OF 18UTC. THE
ESTIMATE INTENSITY IS AROUND A CI OF 2.5 AND IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
BETWEEN THE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES (ADT(CIMSS + NOAA)/AIDT) AND THE 00
UTC DVORAK ANALYSIS. GOMBE IS THEREFORE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION.


GOMBE TRACK IS IMPOSED BOTH BY THE PRESENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
SOUTHWEST OF MADAGASCAR, AND A SECOND, LESS ROBUST LOCATED ON THE
NEAR EQUATORIAL AREA TO THE IMMEDIATE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE
PRESENCE OF THESE TWO ACTORS WILL HAVE THE EFFECT OF GENERATING
CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS THAT CAN EXPLAIN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES
OBSERVED BETWEEN THE MODELS.
INDEED, ALTHOUGH THEY AGREE GLOBALLY FOR A GENERAL DIRECTION TOWARDS
THE WEST TO WEST-SOUTH-WEST, DUE TO THE PREPONDERANCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, DIFFERENCES IN TERMS OF SPEED OF MOVEMENT REMAIN
FOR SOME ANALISYS TIMES. IFS AND AROME ARE STILL FASTER THAN GEFS,
MAYBE BECAUSE OF THESE CONTRADICTORY FLOWS OPERATING OVER THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, BUT ALSO BECAUSE OF THEIR DIFFERENCES IN
APPRECIATION OF THE DEEPENING SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL RSMC FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE MAIN AVAILABLE MODELS.

ON THIS TRACK, GOMBE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE PROGRESSIVELY CLOSER TO THE
EAST COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE FROM FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE DISPERSION OF THE
MODELS IS IMPORTANT AT THESE TIMES, REFLECTING A HIGH UNCERTAINTY ON
THE PREDICTED TRAJECTORY, A LANDING REMAINS HOWEVER PROBABLE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE PROVINCE OF NAMPULA (MOZAMBIQUE). THE PRECISE IMPACT
AREA IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN AND WILL HAVE TO BE REFINED LATER. AT
THE END OF THE WEEK, FOLLOWING THE PROGRESSIVE SHIFT OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE WEST AND THE STRENGTHENING OF THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE EAST, GOMBE SHOULD SLOW DOWN ITS COURSE AT
FIRST AND THEN BEND ITS TRAJECTORY SOUTHEASTWARDS, POTENTIALLY
BRINGING IT IN THE SOUTH OF THE CHANNEL.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, GOMBE SHOULD BENEFIT OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL, OF GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TO AN INTENSIFICATION:
IMPORTANT OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON THE WESTERN
SEMI-CERCLE, OFFSET BY A LIGHT EASTERN CONSTRAINT BRINGING A LITTLE
DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE TROPO, BUT WHICH SHOULD NOT STOP THE
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM GIVEN THE WESTWARD MOVEMENT. A
SUSTAINED TO STRONG INTENSIFICATION IS THUS FORECASTED AND IT IS MORE
AND MORE LIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM BECOMES A MATURE PHENOMENON FROM
THURSDAY / FRIDAY. A LANDING AT THE STAGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE OR EVEN
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON THE MOZAMBICAN COASTS REMAINS LIKELY.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :
- FOR MADAGASCAR, GOMBE IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE SLIGHTLY LESS INTENSE
RAINFALL TOTALS OVER WESTERN MADAGASCAR IN THE ORDER OF 50 TO 100MM
MAXIMUM OVER SOFIA AND BOENY PROVINCE. THE IMPROVEMENT SHOULD OCCUR
GRADUALLY IN THE MORNING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY.
- FOR THE COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO OF AND MAYOTTE, HEAVY RAINS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE PERIPHERY OF GOMBE IN AN EPISODIC WAY BETWEEN TODAY
AND TOMORROW THURSDAY.
- BY THE END OF THE WEEK, GOMBE COULD BE A THREAT TO NAMPULA PROVINCE
IN MOZAMBIQUE. HOWEVER, IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO QUANTIFY THE IMPACTS
OF THE SYSTEM AND THE ASSOCIATED TIMING.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 090003
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 09/03/2022
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 09/03/2022 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 (GOMBE) 997 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.0 S / 46.9 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SIX DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN 290 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 30 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/03/09 AT 12 UTC:
15.1 S / 45.5 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 45 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2022/03/10 AT 00 UTC:
15.1 S / 44.2 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 45 NM
34 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM
48 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 082100
WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 220308183827
2022030818 19S GOMBE 003 01 265 08 SATL SYNP 025
T000 151S 0476E 030
T012 151S 0460E 040 R034 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 152S 0446E 050 R050 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 154S 0432E 060 R050 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 156S 0422E 075 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 159S 0396E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD
T096 161S 0381E 040 R034 040 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 000 NW QD
T120 171S 0380E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 15.1S 47.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S 47.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 15.1S 46.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 15.2S 44.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 15.4S 43.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 15.6S 42.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 15.9S 39.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 16.1S 38.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 17.1S 38.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 15.1S 47.2E.
08MAR22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 228 NM
NORTH OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z AND 092100Z.//
1922030412 160S 563E 15
1922030418 157S 554E 15
1922030500 156S 549E 15
1922030506 158S 544E 15
1922030512 160S 541E 20
1922030518 164S 544E 20
1922030600 163S 547E 25
1922030606 161S 545E 25
1922030612 160S 535E 25
1922030618 154S 529E 25
1922030700 152S 524E 25
1922030706 152S 521E 25
1922030712 155S 518E 30
1922030718 156S 513E 35
1922030800 155S 504E 35
1922030806 154S 494E 30
1922030812 150S 484E 30
1922030818 151S 476E 30
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 15.1S 47.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S 47.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 15.1S 46.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 15.2S 44.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 15.4S 43.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 15.6S 42.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 15.9S 39.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 16.1S 38.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 17.1S 38.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 15.1S 47.2E.
08MAR22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 228 NM
NORTH OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z AND 092100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 081827
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/9/20212022
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 9 (GOMBE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 08/03/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.9 S / 47.5 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUARANTE SEPT DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1002 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 110

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 09/03/2022 06 UTC: 14.9 S / 46.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

24H: 09/03/2022 18 UTC: 15.0 S / 45.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SO: 85 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 0 SO: 55 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 35 NO: 35

36H: 10/03/2022 06 UTC: 15.2 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SO: 95 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 0 SO: 65 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 45 NO: 35

48H: 10/03/2022 18 UTC: 15.5 S / 43.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 230 SO: 140 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

60H: 11/03/2022 06 UTC: 15.6 S / 41.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 270 SO: 120 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SO: 95 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 45

72H: 11/03/2022 18 UTC: 15.6 S / 40.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 240 SO: 95 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 65 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 12/03/2022 18 UTC: 15.4 S / 38.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 110

120H: 13/03/2022 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 40.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 270 SO: 0 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SO: 0 NO: 95

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, GOMBE A POURSUIVI SA TRAJECTOIRE
EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST A NORD-OUEST SUR LES TERRES
MALGACHES EN GARDANT UNE STRUCTURE BIEN DYNAMIQUE COMME EN TEMOIGNE
L'IMAGERIE SATELLITAIRE CLASSIQUE. LE CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES EST
SUR LE POINT DE RESSORTIR DANS LE CANAL DE MOZAMBIQUE, A L'OUEST DE
LA VILLE D'ANTSOHIHY (PROVINCE DE SOFIA). L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE EST
RESTEE INTENSE, MAIS LOIN DU CENTRE ET EXCLUSIVEMENT DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE OUEST. EN L'ABSENCE DE DONNEES DIFFUSIOMETRIQUES ET
D'IMAGES MICRO-ONDES PROBANTES, LE CENTRE DE SURFACE A ETE UN PEU
PLUS DELICAT A IDENTIFIER.

LA TRAJECTOIRE DE GOMBE EST IMPRIME A LA FOIS PAR LA PRESENCE DE LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR, ET UNE SECONDE,
MOINS ROBUSTE SITUEE SUR LA ZONE PROCHE EQUATORIALE AU NORD IMMEDIAT
DU SYSTEME. LA PRESENCE DE CES DEUX CENTRES D'ACTIONS VA AVOIR POUR
EFFET DE GENERER DES FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES POUVANT
EXPLIQUER LES DIFFERENCES CONSTATEES ENTRE MODELES.
EN EFFET, BIEN QUE LES MODELES S'ACCORDENT GLOBALEMENT POUR UNE
DIRECTION GENERALE VERS L'OUEST A OUEST-SUD-OUEST, DU A LA
PREPONDERANCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE, DES DIFFERENCES EN TERMES
DE DEPLACEMENT APPARAISSENT ENTRE LES MODELES. IFS RESTE TOUJOURS
PLUS RAPIDE QUE GEFS ET AROME, PEUT A TRE EN RAISON DE CES FLUX
CONTRADICTOIRES QUI OPERENT AU DESSUS DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE, MAIS
EGALEMENT EN RAISON DE LEURS DIFFERENCES D'APPRECIATION DANS LE
CREUSEMENT DU SYSTEME. LA PREVISION OFFICIELLE DU CMRS EST BASE SUR
UN CONSENSUS DES PRINCIPAUX MODELES DISPONIBLES.

SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, GOMBE DEBOUCHERA A TRES COURT TERME DANS LE
CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE ET DEVRAIT SE RAPPROCHER PROGRESSIVEMENT DE LA
COTE EST DU MOZAMBIQUE A PARTIR DE VENDREDI. BIEN QUE L'INCERTITUDE
SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE SOIT ELEVEE A CES ECHEANCES, UN ATTERRISSAGE RESTE
PROBABLE AU NIVEAU DE LA PROVINCE DE NAMPULA. LA ZONE PRECISE
D'IMPACT RESTE ENCORE TRES INCERTAINE ET DEVRA ETRE AFFINEE
ULTERIEUREMENT. EN EFFET, SUITE AU GLISSEMENT PROGRESSIF DE LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE VERS L'OUEST ET LE RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE
PROCHE EQUATORIALE A L'EST, GOMBE DEVRAIT RALENTIR SA COURSE DANS UN
PREMIER TEMPS PUIS DERIVER DAVANTAGE EN DIRECTION DU SUD-EST EN FIN
DE SEMAINE, POTENTIELLEMENT DANS LE SUD DU CANAL.

SUR LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES
APPARAISSENT GLOBALEMENT FAVORABLES A UNE INTENSIFICATION: CONTENU
ENERGETIQUE OCEANIQUE IMPORTANT, BONNE DIVERGENCE EN ALTITUDE COTE
OUEST, CONTREBALANCE TOUTEFOIS PAR UNE LEGERE CONTRAINTE D'EST
APPORTANT UN PEU D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPO, CE QUI NE DEVRAIT PAS
ENRAYER LES VELLEITES D'INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME AU VU DU
DEPLACEMENT DE CELUI-CI DANS LA MEME DIRECTION. UNE INTENSIFICATION
SOUTENUE A FORTE EST DONC ENVISAGEE ET IL EST DE PLUS EN PLUS
PROBABLE QUE LE SYSTEME DEVIENNE UN PHENOMENE MATURE D'ICI QUELQUES
JOURS DANS LE CANAL. UN ATTERRISAGE AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL
VOIRE MEME DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE RESTE POSSIBLE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :
- POUR MADAGASCAR, GOMBE REPRESENTE ESSENTIELLEMENT UNE MENACE
PLUVIEUSE. A L'ARRIERE DU SYSTEME, DES CUMULS DE 100 A 200MM
LOCALEMENT PLUS DE 200MM EN 24H SONT ATTENDUS, SUR LA PROVINCE DE
SOFIA ET BOENY. L'AMELIORATION DEVRAIT INTERVENIR PROGRESSIVEMENT A
PARTIR DE DEMAIN MERCREDI.

- POUR LES COMORES ET MAYOTTE, LES FORTES PLUIES SERONT POSSIBLES EN
PERIPHERIE DE GOMBE DE MANIERE TEMPORAIRE ENTRE MERCREDI ET VENDREDI.

- EN FIN DE SEMAINE, CE SYSTEME POURRAIT CONSTITUER UNE MENACE
SERIEUSE POUR LA PROVINCE DE NAMPULA AU MOZAMBIQUE. CEPENDANT IL EST
ENCORE TROP TOT POUR QUANTIFIER LES IMPACTS DU SYSTEME ET LE TIMING
ASSOCIE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 081827
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/9/20212022
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 9 (GOMBE)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/08 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.9 S / 47.5 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 110

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/09 06 UTC: 14.9 S / 46.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2022/03/09 18 UTC: 15.0 S / 45.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 85 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 0 SW: 55 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2022/03/10 06 UTC: 15.2 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 95 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 0 SW: 65 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2022/03/10 18 UTC: 15.5 S / 43.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 230 SW: 140 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2022/03/11 06 UTC: 15.6 S / 41.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 270 SW: 120 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 95 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

72H: 2022/03/11 18 UTC: 15.6 S / 40.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 240 SW: 95 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 65 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/12 18 UTC: 15.4 S / 38.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 110

120H: 2022/03/13 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 40.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 270 SW: 0 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SW: 0 NW: 95

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, GOMBE HAS CONTINUED ITS TRACK IN A GENERAL
WEST TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION OVER LAND, MAINTAINING A VERY DYNAMIC
STRUCTURE AS SHOWN BY THE CLASSIC SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE LOW LEVEL
CENTER IS ABOUT TO EMERGE IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, WEST OF THE CITY
OF ANTSOHIHY (SOFIA PROVINCE). CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINED INTENSE,
BUT FAR FROM THE CENTER AND EXCLUSIVELY IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. IN
THE ABSENCE OF SCATTEROMETRIC DATA AND CONVINCING MICROWAVE IMAGES,
THE LLC HAS BEEN A BIT MORE DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY.

GOMBE'S TRACK IS DRIVEN BY BOTH THE PRESENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
SOUTHWEST OF MADAGASCAR, AND A SECOND, LESS ROBUST RIDGE LOCATED ON
THE NEAR EQUATORIAL AREA IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE
PRESENCE OF THESE TWO CENTERS OF ACTION WILL HAVE THE EFFECT OF
GENERATING CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS THAT CAN EXPLAIN THE
DIFFERENCES OBSERVED BETWEEN MODELS.
INDEED, ALTHOUGH THE MODELS AGREE GLOBALLY FOR A GENERAL WEST TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS DIRECTION , DUE TO THE PREPONDERANCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, DIFFERENCES IN TERMS OF DISPLACEMENT APPEAR
BETWEEN THE MODELS. IFS IS STILL FASTER THAN GEFS AND AROME, MAYBE
BECAUSE OF THESE CONTRADICTORY FLOWS OPERATING OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL, BUT ALSO BECAUSE OF THEIR DIFFERENCES IN APPRECIATION OF THE
DEEPENING SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL RSMC FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF THE MAIN AVAILABLE MODELS.

ON THIS TRACK, GOMBE WILL ENTER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IN THE VERY
SHORT TERM AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE PROGRESSIVELY CLOSER TO THE EAST
COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE FROM FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE
TRAJECTORY IS HIGH AT THESE TIMES, A LANDING REMAINS LIKELY AT THE
LEVEL OF NAMPULA PROVINCE. THE EXACT IMPACT AREA IS STILL VERY
UNCERTAIN AND WILL HAVE TO BE REFINED LATER. INDEED, FOLLOWING THE
PROGRESSIVE SHIFT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE WEST AND THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE EAST, GOMBE SHOULD
SLOW DOWN ITS COURSE AT FIRST AND THEN DRIFT MORE SOUTHEASTWARD AT
THE END OF THE WEEK, POTENTIALLY IN THE SOUTH OF THE CHANNEL.

IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SEEM TO BE
GLOBALLY CONDUCIVE TO AN INTENSIFICATION: IMPORTANT OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT, GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE ON THE WEST SEMI-CERCLE,
COUNTERBALANCED HOWEVER BY A LIGHT EASTERN CONSTRAINT BRINGING A
LITTLE DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE TROPO, WHICH SHOULD NOT STOP THE
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM CONSIDERING ITS MOVEMENT IN THE SAME
DIRECTION. A SUSTAINED TO STRONG INTENSIFICATION IS THUS ENVISAGED
AND IT IS MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM BECOMES A MATURE
PHENOMENON WITHIN A FEW DAYS IN THE CHANNEL. A LANDING AT THE STAGE
OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR EVEN AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS
POSSIBLE.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :
- FOR MADAGASCAR, GOMBE IS ESSENTIALLY A RAINY THREAT. IN THE REAR OF
THE SYSTEM, ACCUMULATIONS OF 100 TO 200MM LOCALLY MORE THAN 200MM IN
24H ARE EXPECTED OVER SOFIA AND BOENY PROVINCE. THE IMPROVEMENT
SHOULD BE GRADUAL FROM TOMORROW WEDNESDAY.

- FOR COMOROS AND MAYOTTE, HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
PERIPHERY OF GOMBE TEMPORARILY BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY.

- BY THE END OF THE WEEK, THIS SYSTEM COULD POSE A SERIOUS THREAT TO
NAMPULA PROVINCE (MOZAMBIQUE). HOWEVER, IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO
QUANTIFY THE IMPACTS OF THE SYSTEM AND THE ASSOCIATED TIMING.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 081809
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/03/2022
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 011/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 08/03/2022 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: OVERLAND DEPRESSION 9 (GOMBE) 1002 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.9 S / 47.5 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN 110NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
250 MN IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/03/09 AT 06 UTC:
14.9 S / 46.7 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2022/03/09 AT 18 UTC:
15.0 S / 45.4 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 45 NM
34 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM
48 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 081235
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/9/20212022
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 9 (GOMBE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 08/03/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.9 S / 48.4 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUARANTE HUIT DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1002 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 20 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
NON RENSEIGNE

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 09/03/2022 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 47.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 110

24H: 09/03/2022 12 UTC: 14.8 S / 46.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

36H: 10/03/2022 00 UTC: 15.0 S / 44.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 155 SO: 95 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 45 NO: 35

48H: 10/03/2022 12 UTC: 15.2 S / 43.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 195 SO: 95 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 45 NO: 35

60H: 11/03/2022 00 UTC: 15.4 S / 42.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 250 SO: 130 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 85 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

72H: 11/03/2022 12 UTC: 15.5 S / 41.1 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 270 SO: 130 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SO: 100 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 12/03/2022 12 UTC: 15.3 S / 38.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SO: 0 NO: 0

120H: 13/03/2022 12 UTC: 16.1 S / 39.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 280 SO: 0 NO: 0

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
AU COURS DES DERNIERES SIX HEURES, LA SIGNATURE SATELLITAIRE DE GOMBE
A CONTINUE DE SE DEGRADER. LA CIRCULATION DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE
VISIBLE SUR LES IMAGES SATELLITES SEMBLE S'ALLONGER RENDANT DIFFICILE
LA LOCALISATION D'UN CENTRE DE SURFACE.


L'EVOLUTION DES CENTRES D'ACTION POUVANT PILOTER L'EVOLUTION DE LA
TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME RESTE ASSEZ COMPLEXE AVEC LA PRESENCE DE FLUX
DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES. ON DISTINGUE : LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE
BASSE A MOYENNE TROPO AU SUD DE MADAGASCAR, GENERANT UN MOUVEMENT
GENERAL VERS L'OUEST, LA PRESENCE D'UNE DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE AU
NORD DU SYSTEME VERS L'EST. LES MODELES AMERICAINS NOTAMMENT LE GFS
ONT CONTINUE DE SE RAPPROCHER EN SCENARIO DU MODELE EUROPEEN IFS ET
SON ENSEMBLE, PROPOSANT TOUJOURS UN DEPLACEMENT VERS L'OUEST. MALGRE
TOUT DES DIFFERENCES NOTABLES EN VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT ET DONC EN
TIMING PERSISTENT (GFS ET AROME PLUS LENT) PROBABLEMENT EN LIEN AVEC
CES FLUX CONTRADICTOIRES. LA PRESENTE PREVISION EST BASE SUR UN
CONSENSUS DES PRINCIPAUX MODELES DISPONIBLES. SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE,
GOMBE POURRAIT REGAGNER LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE EN COURS DE NUIT
PROCHAINE ET SE RAPPROCHER DE LA PROVINCE DE NAMPULA AU MOZAMBIQUE A
PARTIR DE VENDREDI. UN ATTERISSAGE SEMBLE PROBABLE MEME SI LA ZONE
PRECISE RESTE ENCORE TRES INCERTAINE. EN EFFET, EN RAISON D'UN
CHANGEMENT DE FLUX DIRECTEUR AVEC LA POUSSEE DE LA DORSALE PROCHE
EQUATORIALE A L'EST, LA TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT RALENTIR ET S'INCURVER
VERS LE SUD-EST.

SUR LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES
APPARAISSENT FAVORABLES A UNE INTENSIFICATION: CONTENU ENERGETIQUE
OCEANIQUE IMPORTANT, BONNE DIVERGENCE EN ALTITUDE, PAS D'AIR SEC EN
MOYENNE TROPO MALGRE LA CONTRAINTE DE SECTEUR EST. CETTE DERNIERE
SEMBLE EN PARTIE CONTREBALANCEE PAR LE DEPLACEMENT DANS LA MEME
DIRECTION. UNE INTENSIFICATION SOUTENUE A FORTE EST DONC ENVISAGEE
ET IL EST DE PLUS EN PLUS PROBABLE QUE LE SYSTEME DEVIENNE UN
PHENOMENE MATURE D'ICI QUELQUES JOURS DANS LE CANAL. UN ATTERISAGE AU
STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL OU CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE EST POSSIBLE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :
- POUR MADAGASCAR, CE SYSTEME REPRESENTE ESSENTIELLEMENT UNE MENACE
PLUVIEUSE. LE LONG DE LA TRAJECTOIRE DES CUMULS DE 100 A 150MM
LOCALEMENT PLUS DE 200MM EN 24H SONT ATTENDUES.

- POUR LES COMORES ET MAYOTTE, DES FORTES PLUIES SERONT POSSIBLES EN
PERIPHERIE DE GOMBE DE MANIERE TEMPORAIRE ENTRE MERCREDI ET VENDREDI.

- EN FIN DE SEMAINE, CE SYSTEME POURRAIT CONSTITUER UNE MENACE
SERIEUSE POUR LA PROVINCE DE NAMPULA AU MOZAMBIQUE. CEPENDANT IL EST
TROP TOT POUR QUANTIFIER LES IMPACTS DU SYSTEME ET LE TIMING ASSOCIE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 081235
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/9/20212022
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 9 (GOMBE)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/08 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.9 S / 48.4 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 20 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/09 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 47.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 110

24H: 2022/03/09 12 UTC: 14.8 S / 46.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

36H: 2022/03/10 00 UTC: 15.0 S / 44.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 155 SW: 95 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2022/03/10 12 UTC: 15.2 S / 43.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 195 SW: 95 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35

60H: 2022/03/11 00 UTC: 15.4 S / 42.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 250 SW: 130 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2022/03/11 12 UTC: 15.5 S / 41.1 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 270 SW: 130 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/12 12 UTC: 15.3 S / 38.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 0 NW: 0

120H: 2022/03/13 12 UTC: 16.1 S / 39.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 280 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, GOMBE SATELLITE SIGNATURE CONTINUED TO
DETERIORATE. THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION VISIBLE ON THE SATELLITES
IMAGES APPEAR TO BECOME ELONGATED, MAKING HARD THE PRECISE LOCATION
OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER.

THE EVOLUTION OF THE MAIN ACTION CENTERS DRIVING THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM REMAINS QUITE COMPLEX WITH OPPOSING STEERING FLOWS. WE
DISTINGUISH : THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF LOW TO MEDIUM TROPOSPHERE
SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR, GENERATING A WESTWARD MOVEMENT, THE PRESENCE OF
A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM DRIVING IT EASTWARD. THE
AMERICAN MODELS, NOTABLY THE GFS, HAVE CONTINUED TO GET CLOSER IN
THEIR SCENARIO TO THE EUROPEAN IFS MODEL AND ITS ENSEMBLE, STILL
PROPOSING A WESTWARD MOTION. NEVERTHELESS, SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
THE MOTION SPEED AND THUS IN THE TIMING PERSIST (AROME AND GFS ARE
SLOWER), PROBABLY IN RELATION WITH THESE OPPOSITE FLOWS. THE PRESENT
FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS BASED ON THE MAIN AVAILABLE MODELS. ON THIS
TRACK, GOMBE COULD REGAIN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL TONIGHT AND APPROACH
THE PROVINCE OF NAMPULA IN MOZAMBIQUE FROM FRIDAY. A LANDING SEEMS
LIKELY BUT ITS EXACT LOCATION IS STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN. INDEED, DUE
TO A CHANGE IN THE STEERING FLOW WITH THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
GROWING TO THE EAST, THE TRACK SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND CURVE
SOUTH-EASTWARDS.

IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SEEM TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR AN INTENSIFICATION: IMPORTANT OCEANIC ENERGY CONTENT,
GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, NO DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE TROPICS IN SPITE OF
THE EASTERN CONSTRAINT. THE LATTER SEEMS TO BE PARTLY COUNTERBALANCED
BY THE MOTION IN THE SAME DIRECTION. A STEADY OR EVEN A RAPID
INTENSIFICATION IS THUS EXPECTED AND IT IS MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME A MATURE PHENOMENON WITHIN A FEW DAYS IN THE
CHANNEL. A LANDFALL AT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OR INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE STAGE IS POSSIBLE

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS:
- FOR MADAGASCAR, THIS SYSTEM REPRESENTS ESSENTIALLY A RAINFALL
THREAT. ALONG THE TRACK, ACCUMULATIONS OF 100 TO 150MM LOCALLY MORE
THAN 200MM IN 24H ARE EXPECTED.

- FOR COMOROS AND MAYOTTE, HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
PERIPHERY OF GOMBE TEMPORARILY BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY.

- BY THE END OF THE WEEK, THIS SYSTEM COULD POSE A SERIOUS THREAT TO
NAMPULA PROVINCE IN MOZAMBIQUE. HOWEVER, IT IS TOO EARLY TO QUANTIFY
THE IMPACTS OF THE SYSTEM AND THE ASSOCIATED TIMING.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 080900
WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 220308070924
2022030806 19S GOMBE 002 01 275 10 SATL 060
T000 154S 0494E 030
T012 150S 0479E 030
T024 149S 0464E 035 R034 015 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 150S 0450E 040 R034 040 NE QD 010 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD
T048 153S 0437E 055 R050 015 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 005 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 155S 0413E 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 154S 0393E 050 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD
T120 158S 0385E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 15.4S 49.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S 49.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 15.0S 47.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 14.9S 46.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 15.0S 45.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 15.3S 43.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 15.5S 41.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 15.4S 39.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 15.8S 38.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 15.3S 49.0E.
08MAR22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 237
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z
AND 090900Z.//
1922030412 160S 563E 15
1922030418 157S 554E 15
1922030500 156S 549E 15
1922030506 158S 544E 15
1922030512 160S 541E 20
1922030518 164S 544E 20
1922030600 163S 547E 25
1922030606 161S 545E 25
1922030612 160S 535E 25
1922030618 154S 529E 25
1922030700 152S 524E 25
1922030706 152S 521E 25
1922030712 155S 518E 30
1922030718 156S 513E 35
1922030800 155S 504E 35
1922030806 154S 494E 30
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 15.4S 49.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S 49.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 15.0S 47.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 14.9S 46.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 15.0S 45.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 15.3S 43.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 15.5S 41.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 15.4S 39.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 15.8S 38.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 15.3S 49.0E.
08MAR22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 237
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z
AND 090900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 080730
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/9/20212022
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 9 (GOMBE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 08/03/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.5 S / 49.3 E
(QUINZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUARANTE NEUF DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1003 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 08/03/2022 18 UTC: 15.0 S / 48.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

24H: 09/03/2022 06 UTC: 14.8 S / 46.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75

36H: 09/03/2022 18 UTC: 14.8 S / 45.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

48H: 10/03/2022 06 UTC: 14.9 S / 44.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SO: 130 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 95 NO: 95

60H: 10/03/2022 18 UTC: 15.0 S / 43.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SO: 165 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 65

72H: 11/03/2022 06 UTC: 15.1 S / 41.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SO: 165 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 12/03/2022 06 UTC: 15.2 S / 40.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 205 SO: 85 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SO: 0 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SO: 0 NO: 0

120H: 13/03/2022 06 UTC: 15.9 S / 40.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 0 NO: 0

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.0 CI=2.5

AU COURS DES DERNIERES SIX HEURES, LA SIGNATURE SATELLITAIRE DE GOMBE
A COMMENCE A NETTEMENT SE DEGRADER EN LIEN AVEC SON EVOLUTION SUR
TERRE. L'INTENSITE EST ABAISSEE A 30KT.

L'EVOLUTION DES CENTRES D'ACTION POUVANT PILOTER L'EVOLUTION DE LA
TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME RESTE ASSEZ COMPLEXE AVEC PRESENCE DE FLUX
DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES. ON DISTINGUE : LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE
BASSE A MOYENNE TROPO AU SUD DE MADAGASCAR, GENERANT UN MOUVEMENT
GENERAL VERS L'OUEST, LA PRESENCE D'UNE DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE AU
NORD DU SYSTEME VERS L'EST. LES MODELES AMERICAINS NOTAMMENT LE GFS
ONT CONTINUE DE SE RAPPROCHER EN SCENARIO DU MODELE EUROPEEN IFS ET
SON ENSEMBLE, PROPOSANT TOUJOURS UN DEPLACEMENT VERS L'OUEST.MALGRE
TOUT DES DIFFERENCES NOTABLES EN VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT ET DONC EN
TIMING PERSISTENT (GFS PLUS LENT) PROBABLEMENT EN LIEN AVEC CES FLUX
CONTRADICTOIRES. LA PRESENTE PREVISION EST PLUS RAPIDE QUE LA
PRECEDENTE FAVORISANT LES SCENARIOS IFS/EPS. SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE,
GOMBE POURRAIT REGAGNER LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE EN FIN DE NUIT
PROCHAINE ET SE RAPPROCHER DE LA PROVINCE DE NAMPULA AU MOZAMBIQUE A
PARTIR DE VENDREDI. UN ATTERISSAGE SEMBLE POSSIBLE MAIS CELA RESTE
ENCORE ASSEZ INCERTAIN. EN RAISON D'UN CHANGEMENT DE FLUX DIRECTEUR
AVEC LA POUSSEE DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE A L'EST, LA
TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT RALENTIR ET S'INCURVER VERS LE SUD-EST.

SUR LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES
APPARAISSENT FAVORABLES A UNE INTENSIFICATION: CONTENU ENERGETIQUE
OCEANIQUE IMPORTANT, BONNE DIVERGENCE EN ALTITUDE, PAS D'AIR SEC EN
MOYENNE TROPO MALGRE LA CONTRAINTE DE SECTEUR EST. CETTE DERNIERE
SEMBLE EN PARTIE CONTREBALANCEE PAR LE DEPLACEMENT DANS LA MEME
DIRECTION. UNE INTENSIFICATION GRADUELLE EST DONC ENVISAGEE ET IL
EST DE PLUS EN PLUS PROBABLE QUE LE SYSTEME DEVIENNE UN PHENOMENE
MATURE D'ICI QUELQUES JOURS DANS LE CANAL.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :
- POUR MADAGASCAR, CE SYSTEME REPRESENTE ESSENTIELLEMENT UNE MENACE
PLUVIEUSE. LE LONG DE LA TRAJECTOIRE DES CUMULS DE 100 A 150MM
LOCALEMENT PLUS DE 200MM EN 24H SONT ATTENDUES.

- POUR LES COMORES ET MAYOTTE, DES FORTES PLUIES SERONT POSSIBLES EN
PERIPHERIE DE GOMBE DE MANIERE TEMPORAIRE ENTRE MERCREDI ET VENDREDI.

- EN FIN DE SEMAINE, CE SYSTEME POURRAIT CONSTITUER UNE MENACE
SERIEUSE POUR LA PROVINCE DE NAMPULA AU MOZAMBIQUE. CEPENDANT IL EST
TROP TOT POUR QUANTIFIER LES IMPACTS DU SYSTEME ET LE TIMING ASSOCIE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 080730
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/9/20212022
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 9 (GOMBE)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/08 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.5 S / 49.3 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/08 18 UTC: 15.0 S / 48.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

24H: 2022/03/09 06 UTC: 14.8 S / 46.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75

36H: 2022/03/09 18 UTC: 14.8 S / 45.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

48H: 2022/03/10 06 UTC: 14.9 S / 44.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 95

60H: 2022/03/10 18 UTC: 15.0 S / 43.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 65

72H: 2022/03/11 06 UTC: 15.1 S / 41.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 165 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/12 06 UTC: 15.2 S / 40.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 205 SW: 85 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SW: 0 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SW: 0 NW: 0

120H: 2022/03/13 06 UTC: 15.9 S / 40.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.0 CI=2.5

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, GOMBE SATELLITE SIGNATURE HAS STARTED TO
DEGRADE SIGNIFICANTLY IN RELATION WITH ITS EVOLUTION OVER LAND. THE
INTENSITY IS DOWNGRADED TO 30KT.

THE EVOLUTION OF THE MAIN ACTION CENTERS DRIVING THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM REMAINS QUITE COMPLEX WITH OPPOSING STEERING FLOWS. WE
DISTINGUISH : THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF LOW TO MEDIUM TROPO SOUTH OF
MADAGASCAR, GENERATING A WESTWARD MOVEMENT, THE PRESENCE OF A
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM DRIVING IT EASTWARD. THE
AMERICAN MODELS, NOTABLY THE GFS, HAVE CONTINUED TO GET CLOSER IN
THEIR SCENARIO TO THE EUROPEAN IFS MODEL AND ITS ENSEMBLE, STILL
PROPOSING A WESTWARD MOTION. NEVERTHELESS, SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
THE MOTION SPEED AND THUS IN THE TIMING PERSIST ( GFS IS SLOWER),
PROBABLY IN RELATION WITH THESE OPPOSITE FLOWS. THE PRESENT FORECAST
IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE FAVORING THE IFS/EPS SCENARIOS. ON
THIS TRACK, GOMBE COULD REGAIN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL BY THE END OF
NEXT NIGHT AND APPROACH THE PROVINCE OF NAMPULA IN MOZAMBIQUE FROM
FRIDAY. A LANDING SEEMS POSSIBLE BUT IT IS STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN. DUE
TO A CHANGE IN THE STEERING FLOW WITH THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
GROWING TO THE EAST, THE TRACK SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND CURVE
SOUTH-EASTWARDS.

IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SEEM TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR AN INTENSIFICATION: IMPORTANT OCEANIC ENERGY CONTENT,
GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, NO DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE TROPICS IN SPITE OF
THE EASTERN CONSTRAINT. THE LATTER SEEMS TO BE PARTLY COUNTERBALANCED
BY THE MOTION IN THE SAME DIRECTION. A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS
THUS EXPECTED AND IT IS MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
BECOME A MATURE PHENOMENON WITHIN A FEW DAYS IN THE CHANNEL.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS:
- FOR MADAGASCAR, THIS SYSTEM REPRESENTS ESSENTIALLY A RAINFALL
THREAT. ALONG THE TRACK, ACCUMULATIONS OF 100 TO 150MM LOCALLY MORE
THAN 200MM IN 24H ARE EXPECTED.

- FOR COMOROS AND MAYOTTE, HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
PERIPHERY OF GOMBE TEMPORARILY BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY.

- BY THE END OF THE WEEK, THIS SYSTEM COULD POSE A SERIOUS THREAT TO
NAMPULA PROVINCE IN MOZAMBIQUE. HOWEVER, IT IS TOO EARLY TO QUANTIFY
THE IMPACTS OF THE SYSTEM AND THE ASSOCIATED TIMING.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 080630
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/03/2022
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 010/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 08/03/2022 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: OVERLAND DEPRESSION 9 (GOMBE) 1003 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.5 S / 49.3 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN 150NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/03/08 AT 18 UTC:
15.0 S / 48.0 E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

24H, VALID 2022/03/09 AT 06 UTC:
14.8 S / 46.7 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 40 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
WHILE ITS JOURNEY OVERLAND, RSMC LA REUNION WILL NOT ISSUED NEW
WTIO24 WARNINGS, WITH THE ABSENCE OF NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS. NEXT
BULLETIN PROBABLY AT 06Z TOMORROW.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 080112
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/9/20212022
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 9 (GOMBE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 08/03/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.7 S / 50.3 E
(QUINZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET CINQUANTE DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 998 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 08/03/2022 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 49.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

24H: 09/03/2022 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 47.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

36H: 09/03/2022 12 UTC: 14.7 S / 46.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SO: 0 NO: 0

48H: 10/03/2022 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 45.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

60H: 10/03/2022 12 UTC: 14.8 S / 44.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

72H: 11/03/2022 00 UTC: 14.9 S / 43.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SO: 100 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 0 SO: 55 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 12/03/2022 00 UTC: 15.3 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SO: 95 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 65 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

120H: 13/03/2022 00 UTC: 16.1 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 220 SO: 95 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SO: 65 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 50 NO: 80
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 40 NO: 40

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5+

LE CENTRE DU SYSTEME EST EN TRAIN DE TRAVERSER LA POINTE DE LA
PRESQU'ILE DE MAOSALA. APRES UN PASSAGE SUR LA BAIE D'ANTONGIL, IL VA
ENTAMER LA TRAVERSEE DE MADAGASCAR.
DURANT LES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE A SENSIBLEMENT
AUGMENTE AU SEIN DE LA CIRCULATION, REFROIDISSEMENT DES SOMMETS
NUAGEUX ET AUGMENTATION DE L'ACTIVITE ELECTRIQUE NOTAMMENT DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE OUEST, AVANT DE MONTRER DES SIGNES SIGNIFICATIFS
D'AFFAIBLISEMENT EN RAISON DE LA PROXIMITE DES TERRES.
L'INTENSITE ESTIMEE A 35 KT, EST CONFIRMEE PAR UNE PASSE SMAP DE
1458UTC (VENT MAX DE 33KT).

L'EVOLUTION DES CENTRES D'ACTION POUVANT PILOTER L'EVOLUTION DE LA
TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME RESTE ASSEZ COMPLEXE AVEC PRESENCE DE FLUX
DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES. ON DISTINGUE : LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE
BASSE A MOYENNE TROPO AU SUD DE MADAGASCAR, GENERANT UN MOUVEMENT
GENERAL VERS L'OUEST, LA PRESENCE D'UNE DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE AU
NORD DU SYSTEME ET D'UN COL BAROMETRIQUE EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AU
SUD-EST DES MASCAREIGNES TENDANT A DONNER UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE
SUD-EST. LA MAJORITE DES MODELES DISPONIBLES, AINSI QU'UN NOMBRE
CROISSANT DE MEMBRES DE LA PREVISION D'ENSEMBLE DU CENTRE EUROPEEN,
FAVORISENT UN FLUX DIRECTEUR PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE
PRESENTE AU SUD DE MADAGASCAR ET DONC UNE TRAJECTOIRE ASSEZ
DURABLEMENT ORIENTEE VERS L'OUEST. LA PREVISION OFFICIELLE RESTE DANS
CETTE PHILOSOPHIE. DANS CE CONTEXTE, IL EXISTE NEANMOINS UNE
INCERTITUDE SUR LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT PRINCIPALEMENT MAIS AUSSI
SUR LA POSITION DU CENTRE LORS DE SON ARRIVEE SUR LE CANAL DU
MOZAMBIQUE (DISPERSION NORD-SUD)

SUR LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES
APPARAISSENT FAVORABLES A UNE INTENSIFICATION: CONTENU ENERGETIQUE
OCEANIQUE IMPORTANT, ATMOSPHERE TRES HUMIDE EN MOYENNE TROPO MALGRE
TEMPORAIREMENT UNE PETITE CONTRAINTE DE SECTEUR EST POSSIBLE EN DEBUT
DE PERIODE. UNE INTENSIFICATION GRADUELLE EST DONC ENVISAGEE ET IL
EST DE PLUS EN PLUS PROBABLE QUE LE SYSTEME DEVIENNE UN PHENOMENE
MATURE D'ICI QUELQUES JOURS DANS LE CANAL.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :
- POUR MADAGASCAR, CE SYSTEME REPRESENTE ESSENTIELLEMENT UNE MENACE
PLUVIEUSE. LES PLUIES S'INTENSIFIENT AVEC LE RAPPROCHEMENT DU SYSTEME
SUR LES SECTEURS SITUES ENTRE LE CAP MASAOLA AU NORD ET TAMATAVE AU
SUD. DES CUMULS DE 50-100 MM EN 24H SONT ATTENDUES SUR LES REGIONS
LITTORALES (VOIRE 200-300 MM SUR LA PRESQU'ILE DE MASOALA) ET 100-150
MM SUR LA FACADE EST DES HAUTS PLATEAUX.
MARDI PUIS ANS LA NUIT DE MARDI A MERCREDI, CES FORTES PLUIES VONT
GAGNER LA REGION NORD-OUEST ENTRE NOSY-BE ET MAJUNGA. EN FONCTION DE
L'INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME DES RAFALES A 90-100 KM/H SONT POSSIBLES
A PROXIMITE DE LA ZONE D'ATTERISSAGE SUR LA COTE EST. LES POPULATIONS
DE MADAGASCAR SONT DONC INVITEES A SUIVRE DE PRES L'EVOLUTION DES
PREVISIONS.

- CE SYSTEME POURRAIT CONSTITUER UNE MENACE EN DEUXIEME PARTIE DE
SEMAINE POUR UNE PARTIE DE LA COTE NORD MOZAMBICAINE. COMPTE TENU DE
L'INCERTITUDE A CETTE ECHEANCE (PLUS DE 300 KM D'ERREUR MOYENNE DE
PREVISION A 120H), IL EST TROP TOT POUR QUANTIFIER LES IMPACTS DU
SYSTEME ET LE TIMING ASSOCIE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 080112
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/9/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GOMBE)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/08 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.7 S / 50.3 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/08 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 49.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

24H: 2022/03/09 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 47.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

36H: 2022/03/09 12 UTC: 14.7 S / 46.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0

48H: 2022/03/10 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 45.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

60H: 2022/03/10 12 UTC: 14.8 S / 44.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

72H: 2022/03/11 00 UTC: 14.9 S / 43.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SW: 100 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 0 SW: 55 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/12 00 UTC: 15.3 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 95 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 65 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

120H: 2022/03/13 00 UTC: 16.1 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 220 SW: 95 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 65 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 50 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 40 NW: 40

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+

THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM IS CROSSING THE TIP OF THE MAOSALA
PENINSULA. AFTER A PASSAGE OVER ANTONGIL BAY, IT WILL START THE
CROSSING OF THE MADAGASCAR.
DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASED WITHIN THE CIRCULATION, COOLING OF THE CLOUD TOPS AND
INCREASE OF THE ELECTRIC ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE, BEFORE SHOWING SIGNIFICANT SIGNS OF WEAKENING DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE LAND.
THE INTENSITY ESTIMATED AT 35 KT, IS CONFIRMED BY A SMAP PASS OF
1458UTC (MAX WIND OF 33KT).

THE EVOLUTION OF THE ACTION CENTERS THAT CAN DRIVE THE EVOLUTION OF
THE SYSTEM'S TRACK REMAINS RATHER COMPLEX WITH THE PRESENCE OF
CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS. WE CAN DISTINGUISH : THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OF LOW TO MEDIUM TROPO SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR, GENERATING A
GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION, THE PRESENCE OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND A BAROMETRIC COLLAR IN MEDIUM TROPOSPHERE
SOUTHEAST OF THE MASCAREIGNES TENDING TO GIVE A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK.
THE MAJORITY OF AVAILABLE MODELS, AS WELL AS A GROWING NUMBER OF
MEMBERS OF THE CENTRAL EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST, FAVOR A STEERING
FLOW DRIVEN BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PRESENT SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR AND
THUS A FAIRLY PERMANENT WESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS
IN THIS PHILOSOPHY. IN THIS CONTEXT, THERE IS NEVERTHELESS AN
UNCERTAINTY ON THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT MAINLY BUT ALSO ON THE POSITION
OF THE CENTER WHEN IT ARRIVES ON THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL (NORTH-SOUTH
SPREAD)

OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO
BE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION: HIGH OCEANIC ENERGY CONTENT, VERY
HUMID ATMOSPHERE IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE, BUT SOME SLIGHT EASTERLY
SHEAR IS TEMPORALY POSSIBLE AT THE BEGINNIG OF THE PERIOD. A GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION IS THUS EXPECTED AND IT IS MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME A TC WITHIN A FEW DAYS OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS:
- FOR MADAGASCAR, THIS SYSTEM IS ESSENTIALLY A RAINFALL THREAT. RAINS
ARE INTENSIFYING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE AREAS
BETWEEN CAPE MASAOLA IN THE NORTH AND TAMATAVE IN THE SOUTH.
ACCUMULATIONS OF 50-100 MM IN 24 HOURS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL
AREAS AND 100-150 MM OVER THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE HIGHLANDS. DURING
THE NIGHT OF TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY, THESE HEAVY RAINS WILL REACH THE
NORTHWEST REGION BETWEEN NOSY-BE AND MAJUNGA. DEPENDING ON THE
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM, GUSTS OF 90-100 KM/H ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
THE LANDING ZONE ON THE EAST COAST. THE POPULATION OF MADAGASCAR IS
THEREFORE INVITED TO FOLLOW CLOSELY THE EVOLUTION OF THE FORECAST.

- THIS SYSTEM COULD CONSTITUTE A THREAT IN THE SECOND PART OF THE
WEEK FOR A PART OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME (MORE THAN 300 KM OF AVERAGE FORECAST ERROR
AT 120H), IT IS TOO EARLY TO QUANTIFY THE IMPACTS OF THE SYSTEM AND
THE ASSOCIATED TIMING.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 080009
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/03/2022
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 08/03/2022 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GOMBE) 998 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.7 S / 50.3 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN 80NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
150 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE WESTERN
SECTOR.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 30
NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO
70 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/03/08 AT 12 UTC:
15.4 S / 49.1 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

24H, VALID 2022/03/09 AT 00 UTC:
14.8 S / 47.8 E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR
HI/071051ZMAR2022//AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 15.6S 51.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 51.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 15.4S 50.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 14.9S 48.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 14.6S 47.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 14.6S 46.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 14.8S 45.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 15.1S 43.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 16.0S 42.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 51.0E.
07MAR22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 294 NM
NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
071800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z AND 082100Z.//
2.THIS CANCELES AND SUPERCEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 071100).//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 072100
WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 220307221621
2022030718 19S GOMBE 001 01 260 05 SATL SYNP 025
T000 156S 0513E 035 R034 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 154S 0503E 030
T024 149S 0488E 030
T036 146S 0476E 030
T048 146S 0468E 035 R034 040 NE QD 010 SE QD 030 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 148S 0451E 045 R034 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 070 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 151S 0432E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 160S 0426E 045 R034 080 NE QD 110 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 15.6S 51.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 51.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 15.4S 50.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 14.9S 48.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 14.6S 47.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 14.6S 46.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 14.8S 45.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 15.1S 43.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 16.0S 42.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 51.0E.
07MAR22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (GOMBE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 294 NM
NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS
12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z AND 082100Z.//
1922030412 160S 563E 15
1922030418 157S 554E 15
1922030500 156S 549E 15
1922030506 158S 544E 15
1922030512 160S 541E 20
1922030518 164S 544E 20
1922030600 163S 547E 25
1922030606 161S 545E 25
1922030612 160S 535E 25
1922030618 154S 529E 25
1922030700 152S 524E 25
1922030706 152S 521E 25
1922030712 155S 518E 30
1922030718 156S 513E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 071822 CCA
***************CORRECTIF**************
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/9/20212022
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 9 (GOMBE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 07/03/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.6 S / 51.2 E
(QUINZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET CINQUANTE UN DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 998 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SO: 130 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 55 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 08/03/2022 06 UTC: 15.8 S / 49.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SO: 0 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SO: 0 NO: 55

24H: 08/03/2022 18 UTC: 15.1 S / 48.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

36H: 09/03/2022 06 UTC: 14.8 S / 46.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SO: 0 NO: 0

48H: 09/03/2022 18 UTC: 14.8 S / 45.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

60H: 10/03/2022 06 UTC: 15.0 S / 44.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 175 SO: 0 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

72H: 10/03/2022 18 UTC: 15.1 S / 43.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SO: 110 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 11/03/2022 18 UTC: 15.4 S / 41.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 220 SO: 95 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

120H: 12/03/2022 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 205 SO: 95 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 40 SO: 50 NO: 40
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 30 SO: 0 NO: 0

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5+

DURANT LES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE A SENSIBLEMENT
AUGMENTE AU SEIN DE LA CIRCULATION, REFROIDISSEMENT DES SOMMETS
NUAGEUX ET AUGMENTATION DE L'ACTIVITE ELECTRIQUE NOTAMMENT DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE OUEST.
LE CENTRE EST MAINTENANT SOUS LA MASSE CONVECTIVE EN IMAGERIE
VISIBLE.
L'IMAGERIE CLASSIQUE MONTRE EGALEMENT UN GAIN SENSIBLE DE
L'ORGANISATION DE LA CONVECTION. L'INTENSITE EST ESTIMEE A 35 KT.

L'EVOLUTION DES CENTRES D'ACTION POUVANT PILOTER L'EVOLUTION DE LA
TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME RESTE ASSEZ COMPLEXE AVEC PRESENCE DE FLUX
DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES. ON DISTINGUE : LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE
BASSE A MOYENNE TROPO AU SUD DE MADAGASCAR, GENERANT UN MOUVEMENT
GENERAL VERS L'OUEST, LA PRESENCE D'UNE DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE AU
NORD DU SYSTEME ET D'UN COL BAROMETRIQUE EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AU
SUD-EST DES MASCAREIGNES TENDANT A DONNER UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE
SUD-EST. LA MAJORITE DES MODELES DISPONIBLES, AINSI QU'UN NOMBRE
CROISSANT DE MEMBRES DE LA PREVISION D'ENSEMBLE DU CENTRE EUROPEEN,
FAVORISENT UN FLUX DIRECTEUR PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE
PRESENTE AU SUD DE MADAGASCAR ET DONC UNE TRAJECTOIRE ASSEZ
DURABLEMENT ORIENTEE VERS L'OUEST. LA PREVISION OFFICIELLE RESTE DANS
CETTE PHILOSOPHIE. DANS CE CONTEXTE, IL EXISTE NEANMOINS UNE
INCERTITUDE SUR LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT PRINCIPALEMENT MAIS AUSSI
SUR LA POSITION DU CENTRE LORS DE SON ARRIVEE SUR LE CANAL DU
MOZAMBIQUE (DISPERSION NORD-SUD)

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT TOUJOURS PREVUES S'AMELIORER
AVANT L'ARRIVEE SUR MADAGASCAR, AVEC UNE CONVERGENCE DE BASSES
COUCHES A LA HAUSSE A L'APPROCHE DES COTES, UN ENVIRONNEMENT DEVENANT
TRES HUMIDE EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE ET SANS CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL
SIGNIFICATIF. LES PROBABILITES SONT DONC EN HAUSSE POUR UNE
INTENSIFICATION JUSQU'AU STADE MINIMAL DE TEMPETE TROPICALE. SUR LE
CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES APPARAISSENT
FAVORABLES A UNE INTENSIFICATION: CONTENU ENERGETIQUE OCEANIQUE
IMPORTANT, ATMOSPHERE TRES HUMIDE EN MOYENNE TROPO MALGRE
TEMPORAIREMENT UNE PETITE CONTRAINTE DE SECTEUR EST POSSIBLE EN DEBUT
DE PERIODE. UNE INTENSIFICATION GRADUELLE EST DONC ENVISAGEE ET IL
EST DE PLUS EN PLUS PROBABLE QUE LE SYSTEME DEVIENNE UN PHENOMENE
MATURE D'ICI QUELQUES JOURS DANS LE CANAL.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :
- POUR MADAGASCAR, CE SYSTEME REPRESENTE ESSENTIELLEMENT UNE MENACE
PLUVIEUSE. LES PLUIES S'INTENSIFIENT AVEC LE RAPPROCHEMENT DU SYSTEME
SUR LES SECTEURS SITUES ENTRE LE CAP MASAOLA AU NORD ET TAMATAVE AU
SUD. DES CUMULS DE 50-100 MM EN 24H SONT ATTENDUES SUR LES REGIONS
LITTORALES ET 100-150 MM SUR LA FACADE EST DES HAUTS PLATEAUX. DANS
LA NUIT DE MARDI A MERCREDI, CES FORTES PLUIES VONT GAGNER LA REGION
NORD-OUEST ENTRE NOSY-BE ET MAJUNGA. EN FONCTION DE L'INTENSIFICATION
DU SYSTEME DES RAFALES A 90-100 KM/H SONT POSSIBLES A PROXIMITE DE LA
ZONE D'ATTERISSAGE SUR LA COTE EST. LES POPULATIONS DE MADAGASCAR
SONT DONC INVITEES A SUIVRE DE PRES L'EVOLUTION DES PREVISIONS.

- CE SYSTEME POURRAIT CONSTITUER UNE MENACE EN DEUXIEME PARTIE DE
SEMAINE POUR UNE PARTIE DE LA COTE NORD MOZAMBICAINE. COMPTE TENU DE
L'INCERTITUDE A CETTE ECHEANCE (PLUS DE 300 KM D'ERREUR MOYENNE DE
PREVISION A 120H), IL EST TROP TOT POUR QUANTIFIER LES IMPACTS DU
SYSTEME ET LE TIMING ASSOCIE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 071822 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/9/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GOMBE)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/07 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6 S / 51.2 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 130 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 55 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/08 06 UTC: 15.8 S / 49.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 0 NW: 55

24H: 2022/03/08 18 UTC: 15.1 S / 48.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

36H: 2022/03/09 06 UTC: 14.8 S / 46.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 0 NW: 0

48H: 2022/03/09 18 UTC: 14.8 S / 45.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

60H: 2022/03/10 06 UTC: 15.0 S / 44.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 175 SW: 0 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

72H: 2022/03/10 18 UTC: 15.1 S / 43.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SW: 110 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/11 18 UTC: 15.4 S / 41.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 220 SW: 95 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

120H: 2022/03/12 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 205 SW: 95 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 40 SW: 50 NW: 40
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 30 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASED WITHIN THE CIRCULATION, COOLING OF CLOUD TOPS AND INCREASED
ELECTRICAL ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
THE CENTER IS NOW UNDER THE CONVECTIVE MASS IN VISIBLE IMAGING.
THE CLASSICAL IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT GAIN IN CONVECTION
ORGANIZATION. THE INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 35 KT.

THE EVOLUTION OF THE ACTION CENTERS THAT CAN DRIVE THE EVOLUTION OF
THE SYSTEM'S TRACK REMAINS RATHER COMPLEX WITH THE PRESENCE OF
CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS. WE CAN DISTINGUISH : THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OF LOW TO MEDIUM TROPO SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR, GENERATING A
GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION, THE PRESENCE OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND A BAROMETRIC COLLAR IN MEDIUM TROPOSPHERE
SOUTHEAST OF THE MASCAREIGNES TENDING TO GIVE A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK.
THE MAJORITY OF AVAILABLE MODELS, AS WELL AS A GROWING NUMBER OF
MEMBERS OF THE CENTRAL EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST, FAVOR A STEERING
FLOW DRIVEN BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PRESENT SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR AND
THUS A FAIRLY PERMANENT WESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS
IN THIS PHILOSOPHY. IN THIS CONTEXT, THERE IS NEVERTHELESS AN
UNCERTAINTY ON THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT MAINLY BUT ALSO ON THE POSITION
OF THE CENTER WHEN IT ARRIVES ON THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL (NORTH-SOUTH
SPREAD)

THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BEFORE THE
LANDFALL ON MADAGASCAR, WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVELS CONVERGENCE AT
THE APPROACH OF THE COASTS, AN ENVIRONMENT BECOMING VERY WET IN THE
MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE AND WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL SHEAR. THE
PROBABILITIES ARE THUS INCREASING FOR AN INTENSIFICATION TO THE
MINIMAL STAGE OF TROPICAL STORM. OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION:
HIGH OCEANIC ENERGY CONTENT, VERY HUMID ATMOSPHERE IN THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE, BUT SOME SLIGHT EASTERLY SHEAR IS TEMPORALY POSSIBLE
AT THE BEGINNIG OF THE PERIOD. A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS THUS
EXPECTED AND IT IS MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME A
TC WITHIN A FEW DAYS OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS:
- FOR MADAGASCAR, THIS SYSTEM IS ESSENTIALLY A RAINFALL THREAT. RAINS
ARE INTENSIFYING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE AREAS
BETWEEN CAPE MASAOLA IN THE NORTH AND TAMATAVE IN THE SOUTH.
ACCUMULATIONS OF 50-100 MM IN 24 HOURS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL
AREAS AND 100-150 MM OVER THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE HIGHLANDS. DURING
THE NIGHT OF TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY, THESE HEAVY RAINS WILL REACH THE
NORTHWEST REGION BETWEEN NOSY-BE AND MAJUNGA. DEPENDING ON THE
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM, GUSTS OF 90-100 KM/H ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
THE LANDING ZONE ON THE EAST COAST. THE POPULATION OF MADAGASCAR IS
THEREFORE INVITED TO FOLLOW CLOSELY THE EVOLUTION OF THE FORECAST.

- THIS SYSTEM COULD CONSTITUTE A THREAT IN THE SECOND PART OF THE
WEEK FOR A PART OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME (MORE THAN 300 KM OF AVERAGE FORECAST ERROR
AT 120H), IT IS TOO EARLY TO QUANTIFY THE IMPACTS OF THE SYSTEM AND
THE ASSOCIATED TIMING.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 071822 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/03/2022
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 07/03/2022 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GOMBE) 998 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6 S / 51.2 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN 80NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
150 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, AND UP TO 450 NM
IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 30
NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 50 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/03/08 AT 06 UTC:
15.8 S / 49.9 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 45 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2022/03/08 AT 18 UTC:
15.1 S / 48.2 E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 071818
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/9/20212022
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 9 (GOMBE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 07/03/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.6 S / 51.2 E
(QUINZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET CINQUANTE UN DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 998 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SO: 130 NO: 95

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 08/03/2022 06 UTC: 15.8 S / 49.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SO: 0 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 55

24H: 08/03/2022 18 UTC: 15.1 S / 48.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

36H: 09/03/2022 06 UTC: 14.8 S / 46.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SO: 0 NO: 0

48H: 09/03/2022 18 UTC: 14.8 S / 45.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

60H: 10/03/2022 06 UTC: 15.0 S / 44.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 175 SO: 0 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

72H: 10/03/2022 18 UTC: 15.1 S / 43.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SO: 110 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 11/03/2022 18 UTC: 15.4 S / 41.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 220 SO: 95 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

120H: 12/03/2022 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 205 SO: 95 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 40 SO: 50 NO: 40
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 30 SO: 0 NO: 0

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5+

DURANT LES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE A SENSIBLEMENT
AUGMENTE AU SEIN DE LA CIRCULATION, REFROIDISSEMENT DES SOMMETS
NUAGEUX ET AUGMENTATION DE L'ACTIVITE ELECTRIQUE NOTAMMENT DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE OUEST.
LE CENTRE EST MAINTENANT SOUS LA MASSE CONVECTIVE EN IMAGERIE
VISIBLE.
L'IMAGERIE CLASSIQUE MONTRE EGALEMENT UN GAIN SENSIBLE DE
L'ORGANISATION DE LA CONVECTION. L'INTENSITE EST ESTIMEE A 35 KT.

L'EVOLUTION DES CENTRES D'ACTION POUVANT PILOTER L'EVOLUTION DE LA
TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME RESTE ASSEZ COMPLEXE AVEC PRESENCE DE FLUX
DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES. ON DISTINGUE : LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE
BASSE A MOYENNE TROPO AU SUD DE MADAGASCAR, GENERANT UN MOUVEMENT
GENERAL VERS L'OUEST, LA PRESENCE D'UNE DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE AU
NORD DU SYSTEME ET D'UN COL BAROMETRIQUE EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AU
SUD-EST DES MASCAREIGNES TENDANT A DONNER UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE
SUD-EST. LA MAJORITE DES MODELES DISPONIBLES, AINSI QU'UN NOMBRE
CROISSANT DE MEMBRES DE LA PREVISION D'ENSEMBLE DU CENTRE EUROPEEN,
FAVORISENT UN FLUX DIRECTEUR PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE
PRESENTE AU SUD DE MADAGASCAR ET DONC UNE TRAJECTOIRE ASSEZ
DURABLEMENT ORIENTEE VERS L'OUEST. LA PREVISION OFFICIELLE RESTE DANS
CETTE PHILOSOPHIE. DANS CE CONTEXTE, IL EXISTE NEANMOINS UNE
INCERTITUDE SUR LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT PRINCIPALEMENT MAIS AUSSI
SUR LA POSITION DU CENTRE LORS DE SON ARRIVEE SUR LE CANAL DU
MOZAMBIQUE (DISPERSION NORD-SUD)

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT TOUJOURS PREVUES S'AMELIORER
AVANT L'ARRIVEE SUR MADAGASCAR, AVEC UNE CONVERGENCE DE BASSES
COUCHES A LA HAUSSE A L'APPROCHE DES COTES, UN ENVIRONNEMENT DEVENANT
TRES HUMIDE EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE ET SANS CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL
SIGNIFICATIF. LES PROBABILITES SONT DONC EN HAUSSE POUR UNE
INTENSIFICATION JUSQU'AU STADE MINIMAL DE TEMPETE TROPICALE. SUR LE
CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES APPARAISSENT
FAVORABLES A UNE INTENSIFICATION: CONTENU ENERGETIQUE OCEANIQUE
IMPORTANT, ATMOSPHERE TRES HUMIDE EN MOYENNE TROPO MALGRE
TEMPORAIREMENT UNE PETITE CONTRAINTE DE SECTEUR EST POSSIBLE EN DEBUT
DE PERIODE. UNE INTENSIFICATION GRADUELLE EST DONC ENVISAGEE ET IL
EST DE PLUS EN PLUS PROBABLE QUE LE SYSTEME DEVIENNE UN PHENOMENE
MATURE D'ICI QUELQUES JOURS DANS LE CANAL.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :
- POUR MADAGASCAR, CE SYSTEME REPRESENTE ESSENTIELLEMENT UNE MENACE
PLUVIEUSE. LES PLUIES S'INTENSIFIENT AVEC LE RAPPROCHEMENT DU SYSTEME
SUR LES SECTEURS SITUES ENTRE LE CAP MASAOLA AU NORD ET TAMATAVE AU
SUD. DES CUMULS DE 50-100 MM EN 24H SONT ATTENDUES SUR LES REGIONS
LITTORALES ET 100-150 MM SUR LA FACADE EST DES HAUTS PLATEAUX. DANS
LA NUIT DE MARDI A MERCREDI, CES FORTES PLUIES VONT GAGNER LA REGION
NORD-OUEST ENTRE NOSY-BE ET MAJUNGA. EN FONCTION DE L'INTENSIFICATION
DU SYSTEME DES RAFALES A 90-100 KM/H SONT POSSIBLES A PROXIMITE DE LA
ZONE D'ATTERISSAGE SUR LA COTE EST. LES POPULATIONS DE MADAGASCAR
SONT DONC INVITEES A SUIVRE DE PRES L'EVOLUTION DES PREVISIONS.

- CE SYSTEME POURRAIT CONSTITUER UNE MENACE EN DEUXIEME PARTIE DE
SEMAINE POUR UNE PARTIE DE LA COTE NORD MOZAMBICAINE. COMPTE TENU DE
L'INCERTITUDE A CETTE ECHEANCE (PLUS DE 300 KM D'ERREUR MOYENNE DE
PREVISION A 120H), IL EST TROP TOT POUR QUANTIFIER LES IMPACTS DU
SYSTEME ET LE TIMING ASSOCIE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 071818
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/9/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GOMBE)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/07 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6 S / 51.2 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 130 NW: 95

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/08 06 UTC: 15.8 S / 49.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 55

24H: 2022/03/08 18 UTC: 15.1 S / 48.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

36H: 2022/03/09 06 UTC: 14.8 S / 46.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 0 NW: 0

48H: 2022/03/09 18 UTC: 14.8 S / 45.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

60H: 2022/03/10 06 UTC: 15.0 S / 44.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 175 SW: 0 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

72H: 2022/03/10 18 UTC: 15.1 S / 43.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SW: 110 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/11 18 UTC: 15.4 S / 41.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 220 SW: 95 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

120H: 2022/03/12 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 205 SW: 95 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 40 SW: 50 NW: 40
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 30 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASED WITHIN THE CIRCULATION, COOLING OF CLOUD TOPS AND INCREASED
ELECTRICAL ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
THE CENTER IS NOW UNDER THE CONVECTIVE MASS IN VISIBLE IMAGING.
THE CLASSICAL IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT GAIN IN CONVECTION
ORGANIZATION. THE INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 35 KT.

THE EVOLUTION OF THE ACTION CENTERS THAT CAN DRIVE THE EVOLUTION OF
THE SYSTEM'S TRACK REMAINS RATHER COMPLEX WITH THE PRESENCE OF
CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS. WE CAN DISTINGUISH : THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OF LOW TO MEDIUM TROPO SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR, GENERATING A
GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION, THE PRESENCE OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND A BAROMETRIC COLLAR IN MEDIUM TROPOSPHERE
SOUTHEAST OF THE MASCAREIGNES TENDING TO GIVE A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK.
THE MAJORITY OF AVAILABLE MODELS, AS WELL AS A GROWING NUMBER OF
MEMBERS OF THE CENTRAL EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST, FAVOR A STEERING
FLOW DRIVEN BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PRESENT SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR AND
THUS A FAIRLY PERMANENT WESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS
IN THIS PHILOSOPHY. IN THIS CONTEXT, THERE IS NEVERTHELESS AN
UNCERTAINTY ON THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT MAINLY BUT ALSO ON THE POSITION
OF THE CENTER WHEN IT ARRIVES ON THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL (NORTH-SOUTH
SPREAD)

THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BEFORE THE
LANDFALL ON MADAGASCAR, WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVELS CONVERGENCE AT
THE APPROACH OF THE COASTS, AN ENVIRONMENT BECOMING VERY WET IN THE
MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE AND WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL SHEAR. THE
PROBABILITIES ARE THUS INCREASING FOR AN INTENSIFICATION TO THE
MINIMAL STAGE OF TROPICAL STORM. OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION:
HIGH OCEANIC ENERGY CONTENT, VERY HUMID ATMOSPHERE IN THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE, BUT SOME SLIGHT EASTERLY SHEAR IS TEMPORALY POSSIBLE
AT THE BEGINNIG OF THE PERIOD. A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS THUS
EXPECTED AND IT IS MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME A
TC WITHIN A FEW DAYS OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS:
- FOR MADAGASCAR, THIS SYSTEM IS ESSENTIALLY A RAINFALL THREAT. RAINS
ARE INTENSIFYING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE AREAS
BETWEEN CAPE MASAOLA IN THE NORTH AND TAMATAVE IN THE SOUTH.
ACCUMULATIONS OF 50-100 MM IN 24 HOURS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL
AREAS AND 100-150 MM OVER THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE HIGHLANDS. DURING
THE NIGHT OF TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY, THESE HEAVY RAINS WILL REACH THE
NORTHWEST REGION BETWEEN NOSY-BE AND MAJUNGA. DEPENDING ON THE
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM, GUSTS OF 90-100 KM/H ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
THE LANDING ZONE ON THE EAST COAST. THE POPULATION OF MADAGASCAR IS
THEREFORE INVITED TO FOLLOW CLOSELY THE EVOLUTION OF THE FORECAST.

- THIS SYSTEM COULD CONSTITUTE A THREAT IN THE SECOND PART OF THE
WEEK FOR A PART OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME (MORE THAN 300 KM OF AVERAGE FORECAST ERROR
AT 120H), IT IS TOO EARLY TO QUANTIFY THE IMPACTS OF THE SYSTEM AND
THE ASSOCIATED TIMING.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 071817
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/03/2022
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 07/03/2022 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GOMBE) 998 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6 S / 51.2 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN 80NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
150 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, AND UP TO 450 NM
IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 50 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/03/08 AT 06 UTC:
15.8 S / 49.9 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 45 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2022/03/08 AT 18 UTC:
15.1 S / 48.2 E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

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