Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for DOLORES-21
in Mexico

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 201000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04E (DOLORES) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04E (DOLORES) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 23.0N 103.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 23.0N 103.8W
---
REMARKS:
20JUN21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04E (DOLORES), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
913 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY
THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 200834
TCDEP4

Remnants Of Dolores Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021
400 AM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

Satellite imagery and limited surface observations indicate that
Dolores has dissipated over the mountainous terrain of central
Mexico. Although a mid-level circulation is evident in satellite
imagery, this structure no longer extends down to the surface.
Therefore, this will be the last NHC advisory on this system.

Although the system has dissipated, the remnants of Dolores remain
capable of producing heavy rainfall over portions of southwestern
and west-central Mexico today, which could produce life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides. For more information, see products
issued by your national meteorological service.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains are forecast over coastal sections of the Mexican
states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, and
southern Sinaloa through today, which could result in
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 23.5N 103.7W 20 KT 25 MPH
12H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 200834
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Dolores Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021
400 AM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

...DOLORES HAS DISSIPATED OVER INLAND MEXICO...
...STILL A THREAT OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 103.7W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM E OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the remnants of Dolores were located near
latitude 23.5 North, longitude 103.7 West. The remnants are moving
toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 25 mph (35 km/h) with higher gusts.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the remnants of Dolores can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header
WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Bands around the south and southwest side of the remnants
of Dolores will produce an additional 2 to 4 inches with isolated
storm total amounts of 15 inches across southwest Mexico through
today. This could produce life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Blake

>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 200833
TCMEP4

REMNANTS OF DOLORES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042021
0900 UTC SUN JUN 20 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 103.7W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 103.7W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 103.8W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 103.7W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER REINHART/BLAKE



>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 200400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04E (DOLORES) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04E (DOLORES) WARNING NR 008
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 04E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 21.4N 104.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 21.4N 104.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 25.0N 104.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
200400Z POSITION NEAR 22.6N 104.3W.
20JUN21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04E (DOLORES), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
965 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 18 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 201000Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 200239
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Dolores Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021
1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that Tropical
Depression Dolores continues to rapidly weaken. It is getting very
difficult to locate a low-level center at this time, if one still
exists over the mountainous terrain. Given the length of time
already spent over this terrain, the estimated initial intensity is
being lowered to 25 kt for this advisory.

Dolores is moving north at 18 kt between a ridge to its east and a
mid-level low to its west. This motion is expected to continue
through tonight, keeping Dolores well inland over western Mexico.
This track over the rugged terrain should cause Dolores to finally
dissipate late tonight or on Sunday morning.

Although Dolores may dissipate soon, the abundant moisture
associated with the system is expected to continue to produce heavy
rainfall over portions of southwestern and west-central Mexico for
the remainder of the weekend.


Key Messages:

1. Wind gusts to near tropical storm force will likely continue over
coastal sections of west-central Mexico to the south of Puerto
Vallarta through early tonight.

2. Heavy rains are forecast over coastal sections of the Mexican
states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, and
southern Sinaloa through Sunday, which could result in
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 22.3N 104.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 200238
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Dolores Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021
1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

...DOLORES EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER INLAND MEXICO BY SUNDAY
MORNING...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES LIKELY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 104.3W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM NNW OF GUADALAJARA MEXICO
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM NNE OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Dolores
was located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 104.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue through tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Dolores is forecast to dissipate by Sunday morning.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Dolores can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO
header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web
at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Wind gusts to near tropical storm force will likely continue
over coastal sections of west-central Mexico to the south of Puerto
Vallarta through early tonight.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Dolores or its remnants will produce
an additional 3 to 5 inches with isolated storm total amounts of 15
inches across coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero,
Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, and southern Sinaloa through
Sunday. This will likely produce life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Dolores will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico through the weekend. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 200238
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLORES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042021
0300 UTC SUN JUN 20 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 104.3W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 104.3W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 104.2W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 104.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO



>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 200001 CCA
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Dolores
Intermediate Advisory Number 7A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021
700 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

Corrected header

...DOLORES WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE MEXICAN STATE
OF NAYARIT...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES LIKELY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 104.2W
ABOUT 83 MI...133 KM NW OF GUADALAJARA MEXICO
ABOUT 78 MI...126 KM NE OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All coastal watches and warnings have been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Dolores
was located inland near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 104.2 West.
Dolores is moving toward the north-northwest near 20 mph (32 km/h),
and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. On
the forecast track, the center of Dolores will move farther inland
across the Mexican states of Nayarit, Jalisco, and Durango.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional rapid weakening is forecast, and
Dolores is expected to dissipate over west-central Mexico by Sunday.

Surface observations indicate that the minimum central pressure has
risen to 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Dolores can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO
header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web
at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Wind gusts to near tropical storm force will likely continue
over coastal sections of west-central Mexico to the south of Puerto
Vallarta through this evening.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Dolores will produce heavy rainfall
of 6 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across
coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan,
Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, and southern Sinaloa through the weekend.
This will likely produce life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Dolores will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico through the weekend. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 192346
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dolores Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021
700 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

...DOLORES WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE MEXICAN STATE
OF NAYARIT...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES LIKELY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 104.2W
ABOUT 83 MI...133 KM NW OF GUADALAJARA MEXICO
ABOUT 78 MI...126 KM NE OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All coastal watches and warnings have been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Dolores
was located inland near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 104.2 West.
Dolores is moving toward the north-northwest near 20 mph (32 km/h),
and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. On
the forecast track, the center of Dolores will move farther inland
across the Mexican states of Nayarit, Jalisco, and Durango.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional rapid weakening is forecast, and
Dolores is expected to dissipate over west-central Mexico by Sunday.

Surface observations indicate that the minimum central pressure has
risen to 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Dolores can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO
header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web
at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Wind gusts to near tropical storm force will likely continue
over coastal sections of west-central Mexico to the south of Puerto
Vallarta through this evening.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Dolores will produce heavy rainfall
of 6 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across
coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan,
Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, and southern Sinaloa through the weekend.
This will likely produce life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Dolores will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico through the weekend. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 192200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 04E (DOLORES) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04E (DOLORES) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 19.6N 104.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6N 104.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 22.5N 104.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
192200Z POSITION NEAR 20.6N 104.2W.
19JUN21. TROPICAL STORM 04E (DOLORES), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1054
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200400Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 192038
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Dolores Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021
400 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

Dolores's circulation, and the associated weather, continue to move
farther inland over west-central Mexico, but it's hard to tell how
much of a surface circulation remains over the mountainous
topography of the region. Deep convection continues to develop near
the estimated center, likely with the help of some orographic lift
of onshore flow. Based on a typical decay rate over land, Dolores's
intensity is set at 45 kt, but there is higher-than-normal
uncertainty in this estimate given the effects of the terrain.

The heading remains toward the north-northwest (345 degrees), but
the speed has increased to 15 kt, likely due to the mid-level
circulation rotating around a mid-level low centered near Socorro
Island. If the surface circulation has not yet been mangled by the
mountainous terrain, it will soon, and the mid-level circulation
should then continue north-northwestward through tonight. The
new NHC forecast shows continued rapid weakening and depicts
Dolores as a remnant low in 12 hours, but in reality the
circulation may have dissipated by that time. This forecast
reasoning follows the quick dissipation of vorticity indicated in
the global model fields.

Even though Dolores is moving farther inland, the coastal watches
and warnings are being maintained on this advisory until there is
no longer a threat of tropical-storm-force winds in those areas.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are still occurring within the
tropical storm warning area and will spread farther inland across
west-central Mexico through tonight.

2. Heavy rains are forecast over coastal sections of the Mexican
states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, and
southern Sinaloa through the weekend, which could result in
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 20.3N 104.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
12H 20/0600Z 22.5N 104.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 192037
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dolores Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021
400 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

...DOLORES WEAKENING WHILE MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MEXICAN
STATE OF JALISCO...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES LIKELY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 104.1W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM WSW OF GUADALAJARA MEXICO
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM ESE OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Cabo Corrientes to Escuinapa Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dolores was
located inland near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 104.1 West.
Dolores is moving toward the north-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h),
and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight.
On the forecast track, the center of Dolores will move farther
inland across the Mexican states of Jalisco and Nayarit.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional rapid weakening is forecast, and
Dolores is expected to dissipate over west-central Mexico by Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center. A station near the Nevado de Colima volcano in
the state of Jalisco recently reported a sustained wind of 37 mph
(60 km/h) and a gust to 65 mph (105 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Dolores can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO
header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web
at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring within the warning
area and will continue to spread inland across portions of
west-central Mexico through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the tropical storm watch area through tonight.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Dolores will produce heavy rainfall of 6
to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across
coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan,
Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, and southern Sinaloa through the weekend.
This will likely produce life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Dolores will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico through the weekend. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 192037
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM DOLORES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042021
2100 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO ESCUINAPA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 104.1W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 90SE 60SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 104.1W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 104.0W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 22.5N 104.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 104.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 20/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 191736
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dolores Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021
100 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

...DOLORES'S CENTER MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE
MEXICAN STATE OF JALISCO...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES LIKELY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 103.9W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSW OF GUADALAJARA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Watch for
the coast of Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Cabo Corrientes to Escuinapa Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dolores was
located inland over Mexico near latitude 19.5 North, longitude
103.9 West. Dolores is moving faster toward the north-northwest
near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to
continue through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of
Dolores will move farther inland across the Mexican states of
Jalisco and Nayarit.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected this afternoon
and tonight while the center moves inland over the mountainous
terrain of west-central Mexico. Dolores is likely to dissipate
over west-central Mexico on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center. An inland station in the mountains at Sierra
Manantlan reported a wind gust to 67 mph (108 km/h) during the past
few hours. A station at Colima reported a wind gust to 52 mph (84
km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Dolores can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO
header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web
at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring within the warning
area and will continue to spread inland across portions of
west-central Mexico through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the tropical storm watch area this evening through
Sunday morning.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Dolores will produce heavy rainfall of 6
to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across
coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan,
Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, and southern Sinaloa through the weekend.
This will likely produce life threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.

Additionally, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall with isolated maximum
amounts of 6 inches is expected for western Oaxaca.

STORM SURGE: Water levels along the southwestern coast of Mexico
will gradually subside as the center of Dolores moves farther
inland.

SURF: Swells generated by Dolores will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico through the weekend. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 191559

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 19.06.2021

TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 30.5N 90.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL032021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.06.2021 0 30.5N 90.0W 1007 31
0000UTC 20.06.2021 12 32.5N 87.4W 1004 31
1200UTC 20.06.2021 24 33.0N 84.8W 1007 25
0000UTC 21.06.2021 36 34.5N 80.5W 1004 37
1200UTC 21.06.2021 48 35.8N 75.8W 999 44
0000UTC 22.06.2021 60 37.8N 70.8W 991 50
1200UTC 22.06.2021 72 40.4N 65.6W 991 57
0000UTC 23.06.2021 84 43.3N 60.3W 994 47
1200UTC 23.06.2021 96 47.0N 55.5W 1003 34
0000UTC 24.06.2021 108 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM DOLORES ANALYSED POSITION : 17.9N 103.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP042021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.06.2021 0 17.9N 103.5W 992 56
0000UTC 20.06.2021 12 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 15.2N 104.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.06.2021 144 15.2N 104.6W 1004 26


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 191559

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 191559

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 19.06.2021

TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 30.5N 90.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL032021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 19.06.2021 30.5N 90.0W WEAK
00UTC 20.06.2021 32.5N 87.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.06.2021 33.0N 84.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.06.2021 34.5N 80.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.06.2021 35.8N 75.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 22.06.2021 37.8N 70.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 22.06.2021 40.4N 65.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.06.2021 43.3N 60.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.06.2021 47.0N 55.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 24.06.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM DOLORES ANALYSED POSITION : 17.9N 103.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP042021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 19.06.2021 17.9N 103.5W MODERATE
00UTC 20.06.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 15.2N 104.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 25.06.2021 15.2N 104.6W WEAK


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 191559

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 191600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 04E (DOLORES) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04E (DOLORES) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 17.8N 103.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8N 103.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 20.4N 104.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 21.8N 104.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
191600Z POSITION NEAR 18.7N 103.7W.
19JUN21. TROPICAL STORM 04E (DOLORES), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1157
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
191200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192200Z, 200400Z AND 201000Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 191437
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Dolores Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021
1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

Satellite imagery indicates that Dolores's center is moving onshore
near the Michoacan/Colima border a little to the northwest of Punta
San Telmo, Mexico. Within its last few hours over water, Dolores's
satellite presentation continued to improve, and an SSMIS microwave
pass from 1155 UTC showed that the storm has a large, well-defined
mid-level eye surrounded by a nearly closed eyewall. Dolores
appears to be very close to hurricane strength, and its current
intensity is set at 60 kt as a compromise between estimates of T3.5
and T4.5 from TAFB and SAB, respectively.

Dolores has been accelerating while approaching the coast, and its
current motion is estimated to be toward the north-northwest (335
degrees) at 11 kt. With the center forecast to move farther inland
through the day, the mountainous terrain of west-central Mexico is
expected to disrupt the surface circulation, and the model guidance
generally shows the low-level vorticity dissipating in about 12
hours, or less. To maintain continuity with previous forecasts,
the NHC official forecast maintains a track for 24 hours, showing
Dolores weakening fast and degenerating to a remnant low over
west-central Mexico by this time tomorrow. However, it is entirely
possible that the surface circulation will have dissipated by
Sunday morning, with the associated rains continuing to spread
northward with the remnant mid-level circulation.

Even though Dolores is making landfall, the hurricane watch for the
coast of Mexico is being maintained on this advisory since gusts to
hurricane force could be occurring to the east of where the center
is moving onshore.

Key Messages:

1. Even though Dolores had made landfall, tropical storm conditions
are still occurring within the tropical storm warning area and will
spread farther inland across west-central Mexico through the day
and tonight. Hurricane conditions, especially in gusts, are still
possible for a few more hours within the hurricane watch area.

2. Heavy rains are forecast over coastal sections of the Mexican
states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit,
and southern Sinaloa through the weekend, which could result in
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 18.6N 103.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...ON THE COAST
12H 20/0000Z 20.4N 104.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
24H 20/1200Z 21.8N 104.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 191436
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dolores Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021
1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

...DOLORES MAKING LANDFALL NEAR THE MICHOACAN/COLIMA BORDER JUST
BELOW HURRICANE INTENSITY...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES LIKELY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 103.7W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM WNW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Cabo Corrientes to Escuinapa Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next few hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dolores was
making landfall on the southwestern coast of Mexico near latitude
18.6 North, longitude 103.7 West. Dolores is moving toward the
north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue through tonight. On the forecast track, the
center of Dolores will move farther inland across western
Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Now that Dolores is making landfall, rapid
weakening is expected later today and tonight while the center
moves inland over the mountainous terrain of west-central Mexico.
Dolores is likely to dissipate over west-central Mexico on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Dolores can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO
header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web
at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring within the warning
area and will continue to spread inland across portions of
west-central Mexico through tonight. Hurricane conditions,
especially in gusts, are still possible within the hurricane watch
area for a few more hours. Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the tropical storm watch area this evening through Sunday
morning.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Dolores will produce heavy rainfall of 6
to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across
coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan,
Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, and southern Sinaloa through the weekend.
This will likely produce life threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.

Additionally, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall with isolated maximum
amounts of 6 inches is expected for western Oaxaca.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding
near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Dolores will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico through the weekend. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 191436
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM DOLORES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042021
1500 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO ESCUINAPA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 103.7W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 103.7W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 103.5W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.4N 104.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.8N 104.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 103.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 19/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 191151
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dolores Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021
700 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

...DOLORES STILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING AND NEARING LANDFALL ALONG
THE WESTERN MICHOACAN OR COLIMA COAST...
...HEAVY RAIN BANDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ONSHORE...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 103.4W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM W OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Cabo Corrientes to Escuinapa Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dolores was
located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 103.4 West. Dolores is
moving faster toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and
this motion is expected to continue until landfall. Dolores is
forecast to make landfall along the southwestern coast of Mexico
within the next few hours.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional intensification is possible prior to
landfall, and Dolores is forecast to be near hurricane intensity
when it makes landfall later today. Rapid weakening is expected
after landfall, and Dolores is expected to dissipate by the end of
the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Dolores can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO
header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web
at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring within the
warning area, and outside preparations should be complete.
Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area
within the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the tropical storm watch area this evening through Sunday
morning.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Dolores will produce heavy rainfall of 6
to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across
coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan,
Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit through the weekend. This will likely
produce life threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

Additionally, 3 to 5 inches of rainfall with isolated maximum
amounts of 8 inches are expected for western Oaxaca, as well as
southern Sinaloa. This may produce life threatening flash flooding.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding
near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Dolores will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico through the weekend. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 191000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 04E (DOLORES) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04E (DOLORES) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 16.6N 102.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N 102.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 18.6N 103.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 21.4N 104.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
191000Z POSITION NEAR 17.3N 103.1W.
19JUN21. TROPICAL STORM 04E (DOLORES), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1235
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
190600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191600Z, 192200Z AND 200400Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 190852
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Dolores Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021
400 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

Dolores appears to be in another bursting pattern coincident with
the diurnal max this morning, as deep convection and cold cloud tops
have increased in coverage and intensity near the estimated
low-level center. A distinct curved band has also formed along the
storm's southern semicircle. The latest Dvorak subjective intensity
estimates were both T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB, though the most
recent CIMSS-ADT intensity estimate was only T3.0/45 kt.
Unfortunately there has not been no recent microwave or
scatterometer data available to better assess the inner core
structure of the cyclone. Blending the subjective and objective
intensity estimates, the maximum sustained winds was raised to 50 kt
for this advisory, though this value may be conservative.

Dolores appears to be making a slow right turn as the storm
gradually accelerates while it rounds the western side of a
mid-level ridge, currently moving at 330/9 kt. A gradual
acceleration toward the north-northwest is anticipated until
landfall with this motion continuing until the storm dissipates over
the high terrain of western Mexico. The latest track forecast is a
bit to the east of the previous forecast cycle but remains in close
agreement with the multi-model consensus. On this track, Dolores is
expected to reach the Mexican coastline in the next 12 h and push
far inland thereafter. Given the eastward adjustment in the forecast
track, the government of Mexico has extended the hurricane watch
further to the southeast for this advisory.

Environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable for
additional intensification right up until landfall along the Mexican
coast, close to Punta San Telmo, in about 12 h. The current forecast
intensity for 60 kt in 12 hours is a bit higher than the guidance
consensus, as few models already have the storm inland at that time.
Rapid weakening is forecast as Dolores moves inland over western
Mexico thereafter and the storm will likely dissipate by 36 h, if
not sooner.

Key Messages:

1. Dolores is expected to continue strengthening today up until
landfall, and it could be near hurricane strength when it reaches
the coast of west-central Mexico by this afternoon. A tropical
storm warning and a hurricane watch are in effect for portions of
the southwestern and west-central coasts of Mexico.

2. Heavy rains are forecast over coastal sections of the Mexican
states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit
during the next few days, which could result in life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 17.0N 103.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 18.6N 103.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
24H 20/0600Z 21.4N 104.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin/Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 190851
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dolores Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021
400 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

...DOLORES INTENSIFIES FURTHER...
...EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND LATER TODAY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
FORECASTED...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 103.1W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch from Punta
San Telmo southward to Lazaro Cardenas Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Cabo Corrientes to Escuinapa Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dolores was
located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 103.1 West. Dolores is
moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue with a gradual acceleration prior to
landfall. Dolores is forecast to make landfall along the
southwest coast of Mexico later today.

Maximum sustained winds have incrased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional intensification is expected prior to
landfall, and Dolores is forecast to be near hurricane intensity
when it makes landfall later today. Rapid weakening is expected
after landfall and Dolores is expected to dissipate by the end of
the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Dolores can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO
header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web
at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within the
warning area this morning, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the
hurricane watch area by late this morning and afternoon. Tropical
storm conditions will possible within the tropical storm watch area
this evening through Sunday morning.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Dolores will produce heavy rainfall of 6
to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across
coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan,
Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit through the weekend. This will likely
produce life threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

Additionally, 3 to 5 inches of rainfall with isolated maximum
amounts of 8 inches is expected for western Oaxaca, as well as
southern Sinaloa. This may produce life threatening flash flooding.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding
near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Dolores will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico through the weekend. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 190849
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM DOLORES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042021
0900 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM PUNTA
SAN TELMO SOUTHWARD TO LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO ESCUINAPA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 103.1W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 50SE 30SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 30SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 103.1W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 102.9W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.6N 103.6W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 21.4N 104.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 103.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 19/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 190543
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dolores Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021
100 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

...DOLORES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...
...FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 102.9W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Cabo Corrientes to Escuinapa Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dolores was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 102.9 West. Dolores is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (15 km/h). A motion toward
the northwest and then north-northwest at a increasing forward speed
is expected tonight through early Sunday. On the forecast track,
the center of Dolores is expected to cross the coast of southwestern
or west-central Mexico within the warning area this afternoon.
Dolores is then expected to move north-northwestward just inland of
the west-central coast of Mexico through early Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is expected until Dolores makes
landfall this afternoon. Rapid weakening is forecast thereafter,
and Dolores should dissipate inland by Sunday morning.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Dolores can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO
header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web
at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area later today, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are also
possible within the hurricane watch area by this afternoon.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm
watch area Saturday night into Sunday morning.

RAINFALL: Dolores will produce heavy rains over coastal sections of
the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco,
and Nayarit during the next few days, with rainfall totals of 6 to
10 inches expected with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches
possible. As a result, life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding
near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Dolores will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico through the weekend. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Blake


>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 190359

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 19.06.2021

TROPICAL STORM 03L ANALYSED POSITION : 28.8N 91.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL032021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.06.2021 0 28.8N 91.0W 1007 33
1200UTC 19.06.2021 12 30.5N 90.7W 1007 31
0000UTC 20.06.2021 24 31.7N 88.7W 1005 28
1200UTC 20.06.2021 36 33.1N 86.1W 1005 25
0000UTC 21.06.2021 48 33.4N 82.7W 1005 30
1200UTC 21.06.2021 60 34.5N 78.8W 1002 41
0000UTC 22.06.2021 72 36.4N 74.3W 996 45
1200UTC 22.06.2021 84 39.2N 70.1W 992 47
0000UTC 23.06.2021 96 43.6N 64.7W 994 46
1200UTC 23.06.2021 108 49.8N 61.4W 997 36
0000UTC 24.06.2021 120 POST-TROPICAL

TROPICAL STORM DOLORES ANALYSED POSITION : 15.6N 102.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP042021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.06.2021 0 15.6N 102.4W 999 37
1200UTC 19.06.2021 12 17.4N 103.4W 991 54
0000UTC 20.06.2021 24 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 190359

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 190359

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 19.06.2021

TROPICAL STORM 03L ANALYSED POSITION : 28.8N 91.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL032021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 19.06.2021 28.8N 91.0W WEAK
12UTC 19.06.2021 30.5N 90.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.06.2021 31.7N 88.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.06.2021 33.1N 86.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.06.2021 33.4N 82.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.06.2021 34.5N 78.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.06.2021 36.4N 74.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 22.06.2021 39.2N 70.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.06.2021 43.6N 64.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.06.2021 49.8N 61.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.06.2021 POST-TROPICAL

TROPICAL STORM DOLORES ANALYSED POSITION : 15.6N 102.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP042021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 19.06.2021 15.6N 102.4W MODERATE
12UTC 19.06.2021 17.4N 103.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 20.06.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 190359

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 190400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 04E (DOLORES) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04E (DOLORES) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 15.9N 102.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N 102.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 17.6N 103.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 20.0N 104.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 22.6N 104.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
190400Z POSITION NEAR 16.5N 102.9W.
19JUN21. TROPICAL STORM 04E (DOLORES), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1279
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z
IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191000Z, 191600Z, 192200Z AND 200400Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 190242
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Dolores Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021
1000 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021

Deep convection has been trying to consolidate closer to the
estimated center of Dolores over the past several hours, suggesting
that the broad circulation of the cyclone may be starting to
contract. The CIMSS ADT and SATCON indicated some strengthening
since the previous advisory, which justified increasing the storm's
intensity to 45 kt for the 0000 UTC intermediate advisory. The
recent Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB are in
agreement with this value, and therefore 45 kt will be this
advisory's initial intensity.

Dolores is moving to the northwest at 8 kt around the periphery of a
mid-level ridge to its east. A turn to the north-northwest along
with a slight increase in forward speed is expected to occur through
Sunday morning. There is about 120 n mi of spread in the track
guidance at 24 h, and with the cyclone's angle of approach to the
coast of Mexico, a variation in the track produces a large
difference in the coastlines potentially affected by Dolores. The
westernmost guidance has the center of the cyclone clipping the
coast just north of Manzanillo in about 24 h, while the easternmost
solutions make landfall in about 18 h near Punta San Telmo. Overall,
the guidance has shifted little this evening, and therefore the
latest NHC track forecast is very near the previous one, which lies
near the various multi-model track consensus. This track would take
the center of Dolores across the coast between Punta San Telmo and
Manzanillo early Saturday afternoon.

The surrounding environmental conditions are favorable for Dolores
to continue to strengthen, with the main inhibiting factor being the
broad circulation as indicated by an ASCAT overpass earlier this
afternoon. Dolores is currently forecast to peak at an intensity of
55 kt by late Saturday morning before making landfall. How much the
circulation consolidates over the next 12-18 h will likely determine
if the peak intensity of Dolores prior to landfall is higher or
lower than indicated. After landfall, Dolores should rapidly weaken
over the rugged terrain of western Mexico, with the guidance in good
agreement on dissipating the cyclone by Sunday morning. Other than
indicating an earlier dissipation, the new NHC intensity forecast
has changed little from the previous one.

Key Messages:

1. Dolores is expected to continue strengthening tonight and early
on Saturday, and it could be near hurricane strength when it reaches
the coast of west-central Mexico by Saturday afternoon. A tropical
storm warning and a hurricane watch are in effect for portions of
the southwestern and west-central coasts of Mexico.

2. Heavy rains are forecast over coastal sections of the Mexican
states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit
during the next few days, which could result in life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 16.3N 102.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 17.6N 103.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 20.0N 104.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 20/1200Z 22.6N 104.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 190238
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dolores Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021
1000 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021

...DOLORES EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SOME MORE TONIGHT...
...FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES POSSIBLE NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 102.8W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Cabo Corrientes to Escuinapa Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dolores was
located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 102.8 West. Dolores is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A motion toward
the northwest and then north-northwest at a increasing forward speed
is expected tonight through early Sunday. On the forecast track,
the center of Dolores is expected to cross the coast of southwestern
or west-central Mexico within the warning area Saturday afternoon.
Dolores is then expected to move north-northwestward just inland of
the west-central coast of Mexico through early Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional strengthening is expected until Dolores makes landfall
Saturday afternoon. Rapid weakening is forecast thereafter, and
Dolores should dissipate inland by Sunday morning.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Dolores can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO
header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web
at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning later tonight or on Saturday, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions
are also possible within the hurricane watch area by Saturday
afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
tropical storm watch area Saturday night into Sunday morning.

RAINFALL: Dolores will produce heavy rains over coastal sections of
the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco,
and Nayarit during the next few days, with rainfall totals of 6 to
10 inches expected with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches
possible. As a result, life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding
near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Dolores will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico through the weekend. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 190237
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM DOLORES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042021
0300 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO ESCUINAPA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 102.8W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 75SE 30SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 102.8W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 102.6W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.6N 103.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.0N 104.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 22.6N 104.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 102.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 19/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO



>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 182339
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dolores Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021
700 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021

...DOLORES GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...
...FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES POSSIBLE NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 102.5W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...80 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Cabo Corrientes to Escuinapa Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dolores was
located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 102.5 West. Dolores is
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A motion toward
the northwest and then north-northwest at a increasing forward speed
is expected tonight through Sunday. On the forecast track, the
center of Dolores is expected to cross the coast of southwestern or
west-central Mexico within the warning area Saturday afternoon.
Dolores is then expected to move north-northwestward just inland of
the west-central coast of Mexico Saturday night and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (80 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is anticipated through
Saturday as the center of Dolores approaches the coast of Mexico.
Weakening is forecast once the center moves inland, and Dolores is
expected to become a remnant low on Sunday and dissipate by early
Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
to the north and northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Dolores can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO
header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web
at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning tonight or on Saturday, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are also
possible within the hurricane watch area by Saturday afternoon.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm
watch area Saturday night into Sunday.

RAINFALL: Dolores will produce heavy rains over coastal sections of
the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco,
and Nayarit during the next few days, with rainfall totals of 6 to
10 inches expected with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches
possible. As a result, life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding
near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Dolores will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico through the weekend. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 182200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 04E (DOLORES) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04E (DOLORES) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 15.3N 102.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3N 102.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 16.6N 103.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 18.5N 104.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 21.2N 104.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 23.6N 105.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
182200Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 102.4W.
18JUN21. TROPICAL STORM 04E (DOLORES), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1326
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190400Z, 191000Z, 191600Z AND 192200Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 182035
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Dolores Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021
400 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021

Dolores is a large, sprawling tropical storm. Recent scatterometer
data indicated that the circulation remains broad, with the center
embedded within an elongated area of lighter winds. However, the
scatterometer passes also showed an extensive area of
tropical-storm-force winds extending up to 140 n mi to the
northeast of the center, blowing from east to west away from the
coast of Mexico. Based on these data, Dolores's initial winds are
set at 40 kt.

The ASCAT data indicated that Dolores's center is located a little
farther to the right, or northeast, of the previous NHC track
forecast. With this adjusted position, the initial motion is now
estimated to be northwestward (310 degrees) at 6 kt. Dolores is
moving around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge which
extends across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern
Mexico, and this feature should steer the storm northwestward to
north-northwestward during the next couple of days. All of the
reliable track models show this general trajectory, and they bring
the center inland along the coast of Michoacan, Colima, or Jalisco
during within the next 18-36 hours, with the timing depending on
the storm's exact heading. Because of the eastward adjustment of
the initial position, the new NHC track forecast has been shifted
eastward, but it still generally follows the TVCE and HCCA
consensus aids.

Environmental conditions are generally conducive for additional
strengthening, particularly warm sea surface temperatures,
mid-level relative humidity between 70 and 80 percent, and
significant upper-level divergence. The two limiting factors to
intensification are (1) the broad structure of the circulation and
(2) less potential time over water due to the eastward shift in the
track. The updated NHC intensity forecast continues to show
intensification up until landfall and is generally close to the
IVCN and HCCA consensus aids. There is still some possibility that
Dolores could be near hurricane strength when it reaches the coast
if the intensification rate is faster than indicated in the
forecast, or if the center ends up staying over water longer than
indicated. After the center crosses the coast, the mountainous
terrain of west-central Mexico should cause rapid weakening, with
the cyclone degenerating into a remnant low, and then completely
dissipating, in 2 to 3 days.


Key Messages:

1. Dolores is expected to continue strengthening tonight and on
Saturday, and it could be near hurricane strength when it reaches
the coast of west-central Mexico by Saturday afternoon. A tropical
storm warning and a hurricane watch are in effect for portions
of the southwestern and west-central coasts of Mexico.

2. Heavy rains are forecast over coastal sections of the Mexican
states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit
during the next few days, which could result in life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 15.6N 102.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 16.6N 103.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 18.5N 104.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 21.2N 104.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 20/1800Z 23.6N 105.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 182034
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dolores Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021
400 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021

...DOLORES A LITTLE STRONGER...
...FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES POSSIBLE NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 102.3W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM S OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Cabo Corrientes to Escuinapa Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dolores was
located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 102.3 West. Dolores is
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A motion toward
the northwest and then north-northwest at a increasing forward
speed is expected tonight through Sunday. On the forecast track,
the center of Dolores is expected to cross the coast of southwestern
or west-central Mexico within the warning area Saturday afternoon.
Dolores is then expected to move north-northwestward just inland of
the west-central coast of Mexico Saturday night and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is anticipated through
Saturday as the center of Dolores approaches the coast of Mexico.
Weakening is forecast once the center moves inland, and Dolores is
expected to become a remnant low on Sunday and dissipate by early
Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
to the north and northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Dolores can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO
header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web
at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning tonight or on Saturday, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are also
possible within the hurricane watch area by Saturday afternoon.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm
watch area Saturday night into Sunday.

RAINFALL: Dolores will produce heavy rains over coastal sections of
the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco,
and Nayarit during the next few days, with rainfall totals of 6 to
10 inches expected with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches
possible. A s a result, life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding
near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Dolores will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico through the weekend. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 182034
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM DOLORES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042021
2100 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO ESCUINAPA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 102.3W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......140NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 102.3W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 102.1W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.6N 103.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.5N 104.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 21.2N 104.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 23.6N 105.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 102.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 19/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 181743
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dolores Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021
100 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021

...HEAVY RAINS FROM DOLORES SPREADING ONSHORE THE COASTS OF OAXACA
AND GUERRERO MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 102.1W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM S OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Cabo Corrientes to Escuinapa Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dolores was
located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 102.1 West. Dolores
is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest is expected later today, followed by a turn
toward the north-northwest and north with an increase in forward
speed Saturday and Saturday night. On the forecast track, the
center of Dolores is expected to cross the coast of west-central
Mexico within the warning area Saturday evening. Dolores is then
expected to move northward along the west-central coast of Mexico
and then inland over northwestern Mexico Saturday night and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast, and Dolores could be near hurricane
strength when it reaches the coast of west-central Mexico by
Saturday evening. Weakening is expected Saturday night and Sunday
while Dolores moves northward near and along the west-central coast
of Mexico.

Satellite-derived wind data indicate that tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) north and northeast of
the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Dolores can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4,
WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area Saturday afternoon, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are also
possible within the hurricane watch area by late Saturday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm
watch area Saturday night into Sunday morning.

RAINFALL: Dolores will produce heavy rains over coastal sections of
the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco,
and Nayarit during the next few days, with rainfall totals of 6 to
10 inches expected with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches
possible. As a result, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides
may occur.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding
near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Dolores will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 181449
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Dolores Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021
1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021

Recent SSMIS microwave imagery indicates that convective banding
continues to become established to the north and west of the
cyclone's center, while the overall area of deep convection is
gradually expanding. Dvorak satellite classifications have
increased to T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and T2.3/35 kt from SAB, and the
depression is therefore being upgraded to a tropical storm with
maximum winds of 35 kt.

Dolores is moving toward the west-northwest (285/9 kt), to the south
of a weak mid-level ridge which extends from the northwestern
Caribbean Sea to central Mexico. Since Dolores is now reaching the
western extent of this ridge, the storm is expected to turn
northwestward and then north-northwestward around the ridge later
today and into Saturday, reaching the coast of Colima or Jalisco by
Saturday evening. The track models agree on this general scenario,
although there is some spread on exactly where and if the center
makes landfall. The GFS and HWRF models show a sharper turn toward
the north, with the center moving inland near or south of the
Manzanillo area, while the ECMWF and UKMET models depict a wider
sweeping turn, keeping the center near or just off the coast in the
vicinity of Cabo Corrientes. The updated NHC track forecast is
between these two scenarios, near the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids,
depicting a potential landfall along the Colima or Jalisco coasts
Saturday evening. The new NHC track forecast is not too different
than the previous forecast, although it does show Dolores reaching
the coast a little sooner than previously expected.

Additional strengthening is anticipated up until Dolores's
potential landfall due to very warm sea surface temperatures (29 to
30 degrees Celsius), a moist environment, and significant
upper-level divergence. The intensity models agree on this
strengthening, although since several of the track models already
have Dolores inland by 36 hours (which the NHC official forecast
does not), they're showing the cyclone's intensity too low at that
time. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the HCCA consensus
aid through 24 hours, but then it is above all of the guidance at
36 hours in order to show at least some additional strengthening
before Dolores reaches the coast. Based on this forecast, Dolores
is expected to be near or just below hurricane strength when it
reaches the coast. This new forecast necessitates the
issuance of a tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch
for a portion of the west-central coast of Mexico. Depending on
the amount of land interaction after 36 hours, Dolores is expected
to weaken fast as it continues moving northward along the
west-central coast of Mexico.

Key Messages:

1. Dolores is expected to continue strengthening today and on
Saturday, and it could be near hurricane strength when it reaches
the coast of west-central Mexico by Saturday evening. A tropical
storm warning and a hurricane watch are now in effect for portions
of the southwestern and west-central coasts of Mexico.

2. Heavy rains are forecast over coastal sections of the Mexican
states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit
during the next few days, which could result in life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 14.7N 102.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 15.3N 103.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 16.8N 104.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 19.2N 105.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 22.1N 105.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
60H 21/0000Z 24.4N 106.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 181449
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dolores Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021
1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM DOLORES...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION
OF THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 102.5W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM S OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from
Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes and a Hurricane Watch from Punta
San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes. A Tropical Storm Watch has also been
issued north of Cabo Corrientes to Escuinapa.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Cabo Corrientes to Escuinapa Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dolores was
located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 102.5 West. Dolores is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest is expected later today, followed by a turn
toward the north-northwest and north with an increase in forward
speed Saturday and Saturday night. On the forecast track, the
center of Dolores is expected to cross the coast of west-central
Mexico within the warning area Saturday evening. Dolores is then
expected to move northward along the west-central coast of Mexico
and then inland over northwestern Mexico Saturday night and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and
Dolores could be near hurricane strength when it reaches the coast
of west-central Mexico by Saturday evening. Weakening is expected
Saturday night and Sunday while Dolores moves northward near and
along the west-central coast of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach
the coast within the warning area Saturday afternoon, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions
are also possible within the hurricane watch area by late Saturday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm
watch area Saturday night into Sunday morning.

RAINFALL: Dolores will produce heavy rains over coastal sections of
the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco,
and Nayarit during the next few days, with rainfall totals of 6 to
10 inches expected with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches
possible. As a result, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides
may occur.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding
near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by the depression will affect portions of
the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 181449
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM DOLORES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042021
1500 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES AND A HURRICANE WATCH FROM PUNTA
SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN
ISSUED NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO ESCUINAPA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO ESCUINAPA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 102.5W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 102.5W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 102.2W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.3N 103.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.8N 104.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.2N 105.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 22.1N 105.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 24.4N 106.2W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 102.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 18/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 181137
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Four-E Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021
700 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 102.0W
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM S OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo Corrientes to Lazaro Cardenas Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four-E
was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 102.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h),
and this forward motion is expected to continue with a turn to the
northwest and north-northwest over the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast over the next 36 hours, and the
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
by late Saturday.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Four-E will produce heavy rains over
coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero,
Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit during the next few days,
with rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches expected with isolated
maximum amounts of 15 inches possible. As a result, life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides may occur.

SURF: Swells generated by the depression will affect portions of
the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 180859
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021
400 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021

Over the past 12 h convection has blossomed and has become better
organized over the broad low we have been monitoring a couple
hundred miles to the south of Acapulco, Mexico. Overnight
scatterometer-derived winds indicated that the system has acquired
a closed circulation with max winds in the northeast quadrant of 30
kt. The most recent 06z Dvorak satellite estimates were T1.5/25 kt
from TAFB and T2.0/30 kt from SAB. Since that time, deep cold
convection has continued to increase near the estimated center with
improved banding both the north and southwest quadrants. Due to
this continued improvement in satellite imagery, this system is
being upgraded to a 30-kt tropical depression this advisory.

Environmental conditions appear to be favorable for additional
intensification over the next 24-36 h as the storm reaches the
Mexican coastline with high mid-level relative humidity, only light
to moderate vertical wind shear, and very warm sea-surface
temperatures between 29 to 30 C. Thus the latest NHC forecast
indicates at least steady intensification, and TD4-E could become a
strong tropical storm as it approaches the Mexican coastline. The
NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the HFIP corrected
consensus (HCCA) guidance.

The estimated current motion of this depression is at 285/7 kt.
Currently the system is being steered by a narrow mid-level ridge
north of Mexico. However, this ridge is forecast to weaken and allow
the storm to gain latitude over the next 24-36 h. The latest NHC
forecast takes the depression to the coast of Mexico by late
Saturday. This forecast is in fairly good agreement with the latest
guidance and lies closest to the most recent ECMWF run, though
spread remains between models that keep the system just off the
Mexican coast like the UKMET versus the HWRF and GFS models which
take the storm further east and inland over Mexico sooner. Given
this track forecast, the government of Mexico has issued a tropical
storm watch for the coast of Mexico from Cabo Corrientes southward
to Lazaro Cardenas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 14.4N 101.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 14.8N 102.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 15.7N 103.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 17.5N 104.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 20/0600Z 20.1N 105.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
60H 20/1800Z 23.1N 105.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 21/0600Z 25.4N 106.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin/Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 180859
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Four-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021
400 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021

...A NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE MEXICAN COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 101.6W
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM S OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm watch from Cabo
Corrientes southward to Lazaro Cardenas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
*Cabo Corrientes to Lazaro Cardenas

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four-E
was located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 101.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h),
and this forward motion is expected to continue with a turn to the
northwest and north-northwest over the next 24 h.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast over the next 36 h and the depression is
forecast to become a tropical storm later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
by late Saturday.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Four-E will produce heavy rains over
coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero,
Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit during the next few days,
with rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches expected with isolated
maximum amounts of 15 inches possible. As a result, life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides may occur.

SURF: Swells generated by the depression will affect portions of
the southwest coast of Mexico during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Blake


>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 180858
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042021
0900 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM CABO
CORRIENTES SOUTHWARD TO LAZARO CARDENAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
*CABO CORRIENTES TO LAZARO CARDENAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 101.6W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 101.6W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 101.3W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 14.8N 102.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.7N 103.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.5N 104.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.1N 105.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 23.1N 105.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 20SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 25.4N 106.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 101.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/BLAKE



>