Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for JOBO-21
in Tanzania, Seychelles

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 241219
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 19/16/20202021
1.A DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT 16 (JOBO)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 24/04/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 7.2 S / 39.9 E
(SEPT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET TRENTE NEUF DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1006 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 25 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
NON RENSEIGNE

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 25/04/2021 00 UTC: 6.5 S / 38.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE






2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
LA CONVECTION PROFONDE PRES DU CENTRE SE DISSIPE A NOUVEAU, ELLE NE
RESTE PRESENTE QUE LE LONG DE LA COTE DE TANZANIE AU SUD DE L'ILE DE
ZANZIBAR ET SUR L'EXTREME NORD DU MOZAMBIQUE.
LE SYSTEME RESTE SOUMIS A UNE CONTRAINTE D'OUEST, FAIBLISSANT AUX
NIVEAU MOYEN, MAIS EN HAUSSE EN ALTITUDE. C'EST UN SYSTEME DE FAIBLE
INTENSITA QUI DEVRAIT ATTERRIR DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES OU EN
DEBUT DE NUI PROCHAINE, SE COMBLANT RAPIDEMENT A SON ARRIVEE SUR
TERRE.

SOUMIS AU FLUX DIRECTEUR DES BASSES COUCHES, SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN
DIRECTION DE L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST, JOBO SE RAPPROCHE DES COTES
TANZANIENNES ET EST SITUE ACTUELLEMENT A PRES DE 40KM DE LA COTE.
L'ATTERRISSAGE DE JOBO EST PREVU A PROXIMITE DE LA VILLE DE DAR EL
SALAAM ET LE L'ILE DE ZANZIBAR.

EN TERMES D'IMPACTS ATTENDUS A L'ATTERRISSAGE DE JOBO, LES IMPACTS
SERONT LIMITES EN TERMES DE VENT MAIS DE FORTES PLUIES SONT ATTENDUES
AU NIVEAU DE LA ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE ENTRE ZANZIBAR ET MTWARA, VOIRE
SUR LE NORD DU MOZAMBIQUE. POUR LES PROCHAINES 24/48HEURES, ON PEUT
S'ATTENDRE A AVOIR DES CUMULS POUVANT ATTEINDRE 200/300 MM EN 24H
(VOIRE TRA S LOCALEMENT 400 MM), SOIT DES QUANTITES EQUIVALENTES AU
CUMUL MENSUEL POUR UN MOIS D'AVRIL.

CE BULLETIN EST LE DERNIER CONCERNANT CE SYSTEME.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 241219
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/16/20202021
1.A FILLING UP 16 (JOBO)

2.A POSITION 2021/04/24 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.2 S / 39.9 E
(SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1006 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/04/25 00 UTC: 6.5 S / 38.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION






2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER IS DISSIPATING AGAIN, IT REMAINS
PRESENT ONLY ALONG THE COAST OF TANZANIA SOUTH OF ZANZIBAR ISLAND AND
OVER THE EXTREME NORTH OF MOZAMBIQUE.
THE SYSTEM REMAINS UNDER WESTERLY CONSTRAINT, WEAKENING AT MID LEVEL,
BUT INCREASING IN ALTITUDE. IT IS A WEAK SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD LAND IN
THE NEXT HOURS OR IN THE BEGINIG OF THE NIGHT, FILLING UP QUICKLY
WHEN IT ARRIVES ON LAND.

WITH A LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW, ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY, JOBO
IS APPROACHING THE TANZANIAN COAST AND IS CURRENTLY ABOUT 40KM FROM
THE COAST. JOBO IS EXPECTED TO LAND NEAR THE CITY OF DAR EL SALAAM
AND THE ISLAND OF ZANZIBAR.

IN TERMS OF EXPECTED IMPACTS AT THE LANDING OF JOBO, THE IMPACTS WILL
BE LIMITED IN TERMS OF WIND BUT HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
LANDING AREA BETWEEN ZANZIBAR AND MTWARA, AND EVEN OVER NORTHERN
MOZAMBIQUE. FOR THE NEXT 24/48 HOURS, WE CAN EXPECT TO HAVE
ACCUMULATIONS THAT CAN REACH 200/300 MM IN 24 HOURS (EVEN VERY
LOCALLY 400 MM), THAT IS TO SAY QUANTITIES EQUIVALENT TO THE MONTHLY
ACCUMULATION FOR A MONTH OF APRIL.


THIS IS THE LAST WARNING ABOUT THIS SYSTEM.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 241220
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/04/2021
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 019/16 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 24/04/2021 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: FILLING UP 16 (JOBO) 1006 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.2 S / 39.9 E
(SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 350 NM IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT.


CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 25KT, REACHING LOCALLY 30KT IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN SECTOR.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/04/25 AT 00 UTC:
6.5 S / 38.4 E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION


OTHER INFORMATION:
THIS IS THE LAST WARNING ABOUT THIS SYSTEM.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 240900
WARNING ATCG MIL 29S SIO 210424070420
2021042406 29S JOBO 008 01 270 08 SATL 060
T000 079S 0407E 035 R034 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T012 074S 0392E 030
T024 070S 0375E 025
AMP
012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 7.9S 40.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 7.9S 40.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 7.4S 39.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 7.0S 37.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 7.8S 40.3E.
24APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 103
NM SOUTHEAST OF DAR ES SALAAM, TANZANIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THAT DISORGANIZED CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, REFORMING OVER AND JUST EAST OF THE ASSESSED LOW LEVEL CENTER (LLC), INDICATIVE OF A SLIGHT RELAXATION IN THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATION OF WEAK LOW LEVEL BANDING FEATURES EVIDENT IN A 240343Z SSMIS COLOR ENHANCED 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE, BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND FMEE. TC JOBO IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED LOW TO MID-LEVEL STR. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE, WITH LOW (10-15KT ) VWS, AND VERY WARM (29-30C) SSTS. THE MAIN HINDRANCE TO ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO LANDFALL IS THE PRESENCE OF A REGION OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR TO THE WEST, PROHIBITING THE RECENT FLARING CONVECTION FROM EXPANDING AND PERSISTING. JOBO IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL JUST SOUTH OF DAR ES SALAAM WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM, BEFORE MOVING RAPIDLY INLAND AND QUICKLY DISSIPATING. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z.//
2921041418 104S 782E 15
2921041500 102S 776E 15
2921041506 100S 770E 15
2921041512 97S 766E 15
2921041518 98S 762E 15
2921041600 100S 759E 15
2921041606 100S 747E 15
2921041612 102S 735E 15
2921041618 99S 723E 15
2921041700 98S 702E 15
2921041706 98S 687E 15
2921041712 101S 676E 15
2921041718 105S 666E 15
2921041800 107S 661E 15
2921041806 109S 651E 20
2921041812 112S 642E 20
2921041818 115S 622E 20
2921041900 111S 612E 20
2921041906 105S 586E 25
2921041912 114S 573E 25
2921041918 115S 554E 25
2921042000 111S 537E 25
2921042006 108S 524E 30
2921042012 105S 510E 30
2921042018 102S 498E 35
2921042100 99S 488E 45
2921042106 97S 482E 55
2921042106 97S 482E 55
2921042112 98S 478E 55
2921042112 98S 478E 55
2921042118 98S 471E 50
2921042118 98S 471E 50
2921042200 98S 465E 50
2921042200 98S 465E 50
2921042206 97S 457E 50
2921042212 96S 452E 45
2921042218 94S 448E 40
2921042300 91S 443E 45
2921042306 86S 439E 45
2921042312 86S 430E 40
2921042318 81S 423E 35
2921042400 79S 415E 35
2921042406 79S 407E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 7.9S 40.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 7.9S 40.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 7.4S 39.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 7.0S 37.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 7.8S 40.3E.
24APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 103
NM SOUTHEAST OF DAR ES SALAAM, TANZANIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THAT DISORGANIZED CONVECTION HAS
FLARED UP OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, REFORMING OVER AND JUST EAST OF
THE ASSESSED LOW LEVEL CENTER (LLC), INDICATIVE OF A SLIGHT
RELAXATION IN THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
ASSESSED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATION OF WEAK LOW
LEVEL BANDING FEATURES EVIDENT IN A 240343Z SSMIS COLOR ENHANCED
91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE, BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KTS)
FROM BOTH PGTW AND FMEE. TC JOBO IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED LOW TO MID-
LEVEL STR. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE, WITH LOW (10-
15KT) VWS, AND VERY WARM (29-30C) SSTS. THE MAIN HINDRANCE TO ANY
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO LANDFALL IS THE PRESENCE OF A
REGION OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR TO THE WEST, PROHIBITING THE RECENT
FLARING CONVECTION FROM EXPANDING AND PERSISTING. JOBO IS EXPECTED
TO MAKE LANDFALL JUST SOUTH OF DAR ES SALAAM WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM, BEFORE MOVING RAPIDLY INLAND AND
QUICKLY DISSIPATING. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNING AT
242100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 240623
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 18/16/20202021
1.A DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT 16 (JOBO)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 24/04/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 7.6 S / 40.4 E
(SEPT DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUARANTE DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.0/2.5/W 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1003 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SO: 185 NO: 130

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 24/04/2021 18 UTC: 7.1 S / 39.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

24H: 25/04/2021 06 UTC: 6.7 S / 38.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE





2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.0 CI=2.5

LA NUIT DERNIERE SOUS L'EFFET DU CISAILLEMENT MODERE EN MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE, LA MASSE NUAGEUSE PRINCIPALE S'EST DECOUPLEE DU CENTRE
DE BASSES COUCCHES. AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, A L'APPROCHE DES
COTES DE LA TANZANIE, LE SYSTEME A BENEFICIE D'UNE AUGMENTATION DE LA
CONVERGENCE DANS L'OUEST DE LA CIRCULATION, LA CONVECTION PROFONDE
S'EST REFORMEE AU DESSUS DU CENTRE, ASSOCIEE A UNE FORTE ACTIVITE
ORAGEUSE. PAR CONSEQUENT L'ESTIMATION D'INTENSITE DE JOBO EST
MAINTENUE STATIONNAIRE.

JOBO RESTE NEANMOINS UN SYSTEME DE FAIBLE INTENSITE SOUMIS AU FLUX
DIRECTEUR DES BASSES COUCHES DE LA TROPOSPHERE. JOBO CONTINUE SA
TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST. LA DISPERSION DANS LES
DIFFERENTS MODELES ENSEMBLISTES EST IMPORTANTE EN DIRECTION,
NEANMOINS JOBO SE RAPPROCHE DES COTES TANZANIENNES ET EST SITUE
ACTUELLEMENT A 100 KM AU LARGE. L'ATTERRISSAGE DE JOBO EST PREVU
ENTRE ZANZIBAR ET MOHORO, LA NUIT PROCHAINE.

C'EST PRINCIPALEMENT UN CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE DE
SECTEUR OUEST QUI A AFFAIBLIT JOBO. CELUI-CI FAIBLIT UN PEU, MAIS LE
CISAILLEMENT DE HAUTES TROPOSPHERE SE RENFORCE DANS LE MA ME TEMPS,
MAINTENANT UNE CONTRAINTE D'OUEST SUR LE SYSTEME.
SI LA CONVECTION ASSOCIE AU SYSTEME BENEFICIE TEMPORAIREMENT DE
L'APPROCHE DES COTES, C'EST UN SYSTEME DE FAIBLE INTENSITA QUI
DEVRAIT ATTERRIR LA NUIT PROCHAINE SE COMBLANT RAPIDEMENT A SON
ARRIVEE SUR TERRE.

EN TERMES D'IMPACTS ATTENDUS A L'ATTERRISSAGE DE JOBO, LES IMPACTS
SERONT LIMITES EN TERMES DE VENT MAIS DE FORTES PLUIES SONT ATTENDUES
AU NIVEAU DE LA ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE ENTRE ZANZIBAR ET MTWARA, VOIRE
SUR LE NORD DU MOZANBIQUE. A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, ON PEUT S'ATTENDRE A
AVOIR DES CUMULS POUVANT ATTEINDRE 200/300 MM EN 24H (VOIRE TRA S
LOCALEMENT 400 A 500 MM), SOIT DES QUANTITES EQUIVALENTES AU CUMUL
MENSUEL POUR UN MOIS D'AVRIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 240623
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/16/20202021
1.A FILLING UP 16 (JOBO)

2.A POSITION 2021/04/24 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.6 S / 40.4 E
(SEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/W 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 185 NW: 130

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/04/24 18 UTC: 7.1 S / 39.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

24H: 2021/04/25 06 UTC: 6.7 S / 38.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION





2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.0 CI=2.5

LAST NIGHT, DUE TO MODERATE MID-TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR, THE MAIN CLOUD
MASS DECOUPLED FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, AS
THE SYSTEM APPROACHED THE COAST OF TANZANIA, IT BENEFITED FROM AN
INCREASE IN CONVERGENCE IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION, DEEP
CONVECTION REFORMED OVER THE CENTER, ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. CONSEQUENTLY THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF JOBO IS
MAINTAINED STATIONARY.

JOBO IS STILL A WEAK SYSTEM SUBJECT TO THE STEERING FLOW OF THE LOWER
LAYERS OF THE TROPOSPHERE. JOBO CONTINUES ITS TRAJECTORY TOWARDS THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. THE DISPERSION IN THE DIFFERENT ENSEMBLE MODELS IS
IMPORTANT IN DIRECTION, NEVERTHELESS JOBO IS APPROACHING THE
TANZANIAN COASTS AND IS CURRENTLY LOCATED 100 KM OFFSHORE. JOBO IS
EXPECTED TO LAND BETWEEN ZANZIBAR AND MOHORO NEXT NIGHT.

IT IS MAINLY A WESTERLY MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR THAT WEAKENED JOBO.
THIS ONE IS WEAKENING A BIT, BUT THE HIGH TROPOSPHERE SHEAR IS
STRENGTHENING AT THE SAME TIME, MAINTAINING A WESTERLY STRESS ON THE
SYSTEM.
IF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM BENEFITS TEMPORARILY
FROM THE APPROACH OF THE COASTS, IT IS A WEAK SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD
LAND NEXT NIGHT AND FILL UP QUICKLY WHEN IT ARRIVES ON LAND.

IN TERMS OF EXPECTED IMPACTS AT THE LANDING OF JOBO, THE IMPACTS WILL
BE LIMITED IN TERMS OF WIND BUT HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
LANDING AREA BETWEEN ZANZIBAR AND MTWARA, AND EVEN OVER THE NORTH OF
MOZANBIQUE. FROM SUNDAY, WE CAN EXPECT TO HAVE ACCUMULATIONS THAT CAN
REACH 200/300 MM IN 24 HOURS (EVEN VERY LOCALLY 400 TO 500 MM), THAT
IS TO SAY QUANTITIES EQUIVALENT TO THE MONTHLY ACCUMULATION FOR A
MONTH OF APRIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 240616
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/04/2021
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 018/16 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 24/04/2021 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: FILLING UP 16 (JOBO) 1003 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.6 S / 40.4 E
(SEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CERCLE,
AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 70 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/04/24 AT 18 UTC:
7.1 S / 39.3 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

24H, VALID 2021/04/25 AT 06 UTC:
6.7 S / 38.4 E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 240021
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 17/16/20202021
1.A DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT 16 (JOBO)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 24/04/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 8.0 S / 41.5 E
(HUIT DEGRES ZERO SUD ET QUARANTE UN DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.0/2.5/W 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1003 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 20 SE: 95 SO: 185 NO: 20

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PEU PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 24/04/2021 12 UTC: 7.7 S / 40.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

24H: 25/04/2021 00 UTC: 7.3 S / 39.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

36H: 25/04/2021 12 UTC: 6.7 S / 38.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE




2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.0 CI=2.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION S'EST EFFONDREE. LES
IMAGES SATELLITAIRES MONTRENT QUE LA VORTICITE DE BASSE COUCHE S'EST
DECOUPLEE DE CELLE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, CE QUI CONFIRME PAR LES
DERNIERES ANALYSES DU CIMSS. LE CENTRE DE BASSE COUCHE EST SITUE A
L'OUEST DE LA MASSE NUAGEUSE PRINCIPALE, SOUS L'EFFET DU CISAILLEMENT
MODERE EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. PAR CONSEQUENT L'ESTIMATION
D'INTENSITE DE JOBO EST REVUE A LA BAISSE, AU STADE DE DEPRESSION SE
COMBLANT.

DU FAIT DE SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR EST REPRIS PAR LES
BASSES COUCHES DE LA TROPOSPHERE. JOBO CONTINUE SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS
L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST. LA DISPERSION DANS LES DIFFERENTS MODELES
ENSEMBLISTES EST IMPORTANTE EN DIRECTION. JOBO POURSUIT SA ROUTE EN
DIRECTION DES COTES TANZANIENNES ET EST SITUE ACTUELLEMENT A 200 KM
AU LARGE. L'ATTERRISSAGE DE JOBO EST PREVU ENTRE ZANZIBAR ET MTWARA,
DANS LA NUIT DE SAMEDI A DIMANCHE.

ACTUELLEMENT C'EST DONC PRINCIPALEMENT UN CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE DE SECTEUR OUEST QUI AFFAIBLIT JOBO. LE CISAILLEMENT
TOURNE PROGRESSIVEMENT AU SECTEUR SUD-EST EN FORCISSANT LEGEREMENT EN
JOURNA E CE QUI VA CONTRIBUER A AFFAIBLIR DURABLEMENT LE SYSTEME
AVANT SON ATTERRISSAGE, AU STADE DE DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT.

EN TERMES D'IMPACTS ATTENDUS POUR LA TANZANIE, AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT
PREVU DU SYSTEME JOBO A L'ATTERRISSAGE, LES IMPACTS SERONT LIMITES EN
TERMES DE VENT MAIS DE FORTES PLUIES SONT ATTENDUES AU NIVEAU DE LA
ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE ENTRE ZANZIBAR ET MTWARA. A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE,
ON PEUT S'ATTENDRE A AVOIR DES CUMULS POUVANT ATTEINDRE 200/300 MM EN
24H (VOIRE TRA S LOCALEMENT 400 A 500 MM), SOIT DES QUANTITES
EQUIVALENTES AU CUMUL MENSUEL POUR UN MOIS D'AVRIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 240021
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/16/20202021
1.A FILLING UP 16 (JOBO)

2.A POSITION 2021/04/24 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.0 S / 41.5 E
(EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/W 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 20 SE: 95 SW: 185 NW: 20

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/04/24 12 UTC: 7.7 S / 40.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

24H: 2021/04/25 00 UTC: 7.3 S / 39.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING UP

36H: 2021/04/25 12 UTC: 6.7 S / 38.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION




2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.0 CI=2.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CONVECTION HAS COLLAPSED. SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW THAT THE LOW LAYER VORTICITY HAS DECOUPLED FROM THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE VORTICITY, WHICH IS CONFIRMED BY THE LATEST CIMSS
ANALYSIS. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED WEST OF THE MAIN CLOUD
MASS, UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE MODERATE MID-SHEAR. CONSEQUENTLY,
JOBO'S INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS REVISED DOWNWARDS, TO THE STAGE OF A
FILLING LOW.

DUE TO ITS WEAKENING, THE STEERING FLOW IS TAKEN OVER BY THE LOWER
LAYERS OF THE TROPOSPHERE. JOBO KEEPS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
THE DISPERSION IN THE DIFFERENT ENSEMBLE MODELS IS HIGH IN DIRECTION.
JOBO CONTINUES ITS MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE TANZANIAN COAST AND IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED 200 KM OFFSHORE. JOBO IS EXPECTED TO LAND BETWEEN
ZANZIBAR AND MTWARA ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

AT THE MOMENT IT IS MAINLY A MID-TROPOSPHERIC WESTERLY SHEAR THAT IS
WEAKENING JOBO. THE SHEAR TURNS PROGRESSIVELY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY, WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKEN
THE SYSTEM BEFORE ITS LANDING, AT THE STAGE OF A DEPRESSION FILLING
UP.

IN TERMS OF EXPECTED IMPACTS FOR TANZANIA, WITH THE WEAKENING OF JOBO
AT LANDING, THE IMPACTS WILL BE LIMITED IN TERMS OF WIND BUT HEAVY
RAINS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LANDING AREA BETWEEN ZANZIBAR AND MTWARA.
FROM SUNDAY, WE CAN EXPECT TO HAVE ACCUMULATIONS THAT CAN REACH
200/300 MM IN 24 HOURS (EVEN VERY LOCALLY 400 TO 500 MM), THAT IS TO
SAY QUANTITIES EQUIVALENT TO THE MONTHLY ACCUMULATION FOR A MONTH OF
APRIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 240008
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/04/2021
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 017/16 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 24/04/2021 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: FILLING UP 16 (JOBO) 1003 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.0 S / 41.5 E
(EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 10
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/04/24 AT 12 UTC:
7.7 S / 40.2 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, FILLING UP

24H, VALID 2021/04/25 AT 00 UTC:
7.3 S / 39.4 E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, FILLING UP

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 232100
WARNING ATCG MIL 29S SIO 210423195232
2021042318 29S JOBO 007 01 305 09 SATL 040
T000 081S 0423E 035 R034 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 025 NW QD
T012 075S 0407E 035 R034 000 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD
T024 072S 0397E 030
T036 070S 0386E 020
AMP
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 8.5S 43.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.5S 43.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 8.0S 42.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 7.7S 41.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 7.5S 40.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 7.3S 39.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 8.4S 43.1E.
23APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 668
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 240300Z AND 241500Z.
//
2921041418 104S 782E 15
2921041500 102S 776E 15
2921041506 100S 770E 15
2921041512 97S 766E 15
2921041518 98S 762E 15
2921041600 100S 759E 15
2921041606 100S 747E 15
2921041612 102S 735E 15
2921041618 99S 723E 15
2921041700 98S 702E 15
2921041706 98S 687E 15
2921041712 101S 676E 15
2921041718 105S 666E 15
2921041800 107S 661E 15
2921041806 109S 651E 20
2921041812 112S 642E 20
2921041818 115S 622E 20
2921041900 111S 612E 20
2921041906 105S 586E 25
2921041912 114S 573E 25
2921041918 115S 554E 25
2921042000 111S 537E 25
2921042006 108S 524E 30
2921042012 105S 510E 30
2921042018 102S 498E 35
2921042100 99S 488E 45
2921042106 97S 482E 55
2921042106 97S 482E 55
2921042112 98S 478E 55
2921042112 98S 478E 55
2921042118 98S 471E 50
2921042118 98S 471E 50
2921042200 98S 465E 50
2921042200 98S 465E 50
2921042206 97S 457E 50
2921042212 96S 452E 45
2921042218 94S 448E 40
2921042300 91S 443E 45
2921042306 86S 438E 45
2921042312 85S 434E 40
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 8.1S 42.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.1S 42.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 7.5S 40.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 7.2S 39.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 7.0S 38.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 7.9S 41.9E.
23APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 194
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DAR ES SALAAM, TANZANIA, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. JOBO HAS BECOME
MORE DISORGANIZED, WITH A 231820Z GMI MICROWAVE PASS REVEALING THAT
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME DISPLACED ABOUT 120 NM WEST OF A
SMALL CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN
LOWERED TO 35 KTS BASED ON THE DEGRADED SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND A
PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS). VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
IS DECREASING, NOW 10-20 KTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST, MOSTLY IN THE MID-
TROPOSPHERE. HOWEVER, MODEL ANALYSIS AND MIMIC-TPW IMAGERY FROM
CIMSS INDICATE THAT A MODERATELY DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IN THE 900-
600 MB LAYER IS GETTING ENTRAINED INTO THE CIRCULATION FROM THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST-SOUTHEAST, PREVENTING DEEP CONVECTION FROM BEING
SUSTAINED. THIS IS MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR JOBO TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY. THIS DRY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS THE CYCLONE IS STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE
COASTLINE OF TANZANIA BY A BELT OF LOW-LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
NORTH OF MADAGASCAR. JOBO IS THUS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY 24 HOURS
JUST OFFSHORE OF TANZANIA NEAR DAR ES SALAAM, IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
MAJORITY OF NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. THE WEAK REMNANT CIRCULATION
OR SURFACE TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE INLAND OVER CENTRAL-EASTERN
TANZANIA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z AND 242100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 231859
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 16/16/20202021
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 16 (JOBO)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 23/04/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 8.2 S / 42.3 E
(HUIT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUARANTE DEUX DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 998 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 20 SE: 95 SO: 185 NO: 20
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 35 SO: 55 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 24/04/2021 06 UTC: 7.8 S / 40.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 35 SE: 20 SO: 45 NO: 55
34 KT NE: 30 SE: 10 SO: 10 NO: 35

24H: 24/04/2021 18 UTC: 7.3 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

36H: 25/04/2021 06 UTC: 6.7 S / 39.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE




2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0- CI=3.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LE CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES A EMERGE
AU NORD-OUEST DE LA CONVECTION SOUS L'EFFET DU CISAILLEMENT DE
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, COMME LE MONTRE L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDE SSMIS DE
1356Z.
L'ESTIMATION D'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME EST EN ACCORD AVEC LES DERNIERES
ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES.

JOBO CONTINUE SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST, SOUS L'EFFET DE
LA DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE LOCALISEE SUR LE CENTRE DU CANAL DU
MOZAMBIQUE ET DU FLUX DE BASSES COUCHES SUR LA PARTIE NORD DU CANAL,
A PARTIR DE SAMEDI. LA DISPERSION DANS LES DIFFERENTS MODELES
ENSEMBLISTES EST IMPORTANTE EN DIRECTION. JOBO CIRCULE ACTUELLEMENT A
PLUS DE 300 KM AU NORD DE L'ARCHIPEL DES GRANDES COMORES ET POURSUIT
SA ROUTE EN DIRECTION DES COTES TANZANIENNE. L'ATTERRISSAGE DE JOBO
EST PREVU ENTRE ZANZIBAR ET MTWARA, SAMEDI EN SOIREE.

ACTUELLEMENT C'EST PRINCIPALEMENT UN CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE DE SECTEUR OUEST QUI SEMBLE AFFAIBLIR JOBO. DEMAIN, LE
CISAILLEMENT FORCIT LEGEREMENT ET CONTINUE A AFFAIBLIR DURABLEMENT LE
SYSTEME AVANT SON ATTERRISSAGE, AU STADE DE DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT.

EN TERMES D'IMPACTS ATTENDUS, LES FORTES PRECIPITATIONS S'ATTENUENT
SUR LES ILES DE L'ARCHIPEL DES COMORES.POUR LA TANZANIE, AVEC
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT PREVU DU SYSTEME JOBO A L'ATTERRISSAGE, LES IMPACTS
POURRAIENT RESTER LIMITES EN TERMES DE VENT MAIS DE FORTES PLUIES
SONT ATTENDUES AU NIVEAU DE LA ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE ENTRE ZANZIBAR ET
MTWARA. A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, ON PEUT S'ATTENDRE A AVOIR DES CUMULS
POUVANT ATTEINDRE 200/300 MM EN 24H (VOIRE TRA S LOCALEMENT 400 A
500 MM), SOIT DES QUANTITES EQUIVALENTES AU CUMUL MENSUEL POUR UN
MOIS D'AVRIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 231859
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/16/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 16 (JOBO)

2.A POSITION 2021/04/23 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.2 S / 42.3 E
(EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 20 SE: 95 SW: 185 NW: 20
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 35 SW: 55 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/04/24 06 UTC: 7.8 S / 40.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 35 SE: 20 SW: 45 NW: 55
34 KT NE: 30 SE: 10 SW: 10 NW: 35

24H: 2021/04/24 18 UTC: 7.3 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

36H: 2021/04/25 06 UTC: 6.7 S / 39.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION




2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0- CI=3.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS EMERGED TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE CONVECTION UNDER THE EFFECT OF MID-TROPOSPHERE
SHEAR, AS SHOWN IN THE 1356Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF THE SYSTEM IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LAST OBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES.

JOBO KEEPS ON TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTERLY, UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE CENTER OF THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL AND OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
CHANNEL, FROM SATURDAY. THE DISPERSION IN THE DIFFERENT ENSEMBLE
MODELS IS HIGH IN DIRECTION. JOBO IS CURRENTLY TRACKING MORE THAN 300
KM NORTH OF THE GREAT COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO AND CONTINUES ITS TRACK
TOWARDS THE TANZANIAN COAST. JOBO IS EXPECTED TO LAND BETWEEN
ZANZIBAR AND MTWARA ON SATURDAY EVENING.

AT THE MOMENT IT IS MAINLY A MID-TROPOSPHERIC WESTERLY SHEAR THAT
SEEMS TO WEAKEN JOBO. TOMORROW, THE SHEAR STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AND
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DURABLY BEFORE ITS LANDING, AS A
FILLING LOW.

IN TERMS OF EXPECTED IMPACTS, THE HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO EASE
OFF OVER THE COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO. FOR TANZANIA, WITH THE WEAKENING OF
JOBO BEFORE LANDFALL, THE IMPACTS COULD REMAIN LIMITED IN TERMS OF
WIND. HOWEVER, HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE LANDING ZONE BETWEEN
ZANZIBAR AND MTWARA FROM SUNDAY, ACCUMULATIONS REACHING 200/300 MM IN
24 HOURS (EVEN VERY LOCALLY 400 TO 500 MM) ARE LIKELY. THESE RAINFALL
QUANTITIES ARE EQUIVALENT TO THE MONTHLY ACCUMULATION FOR APRIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 231828
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 23/04/2021
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 016/16 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 23/04/2021 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 16 (JOBO) 998 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.2 S / 42.3 E
(EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING FROM 60 TO 180 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CERCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
20 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 30 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 10
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/04/24 AT 06 UTC:
7.8 S / 40.8 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 10 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 30 NM
34 KT NE: 15 NM SE: 5 NM SW: 5 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2021/04/24 AT 18 UTC:
7.3 S / 39.8 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, FILLING UP

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 231500
WARNING ATCG MIL 29S SIO 210423142509
2021042312 29S JOBO 006 01 285 04 SATL 045
T000 085S 0434E 040 R034 045 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD
T012 080S 0421E 040 R034 045 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 077S 0410E 035 R034 040 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 025 NW QD
T036 075S 0401E 030
T048 073S 0392E 025
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 8.5S 43.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.5S 43.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 8.0S 42.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 7.7S 41.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 7.5S 40.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 7.3S 39.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 8.4S 43.1E.
23APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 668
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 240300Z AND 241500Z.
//
2921041418 104S 782E 15
2921041500 102S 776E 15
2921041506 100S 770E 15
2921041512 97S 766E 15
2921041518 98S 762E 15
2921041600 100S 759E 15
2921041606 100S 747E 15
2921041612 102S 735E 15
2921041618 99S 723E 15
2921041700 98S 702E 15
2921041706 98S 687E 15
2921041712 101S 676E 15
2921041718 105S 666E 15
2921041800 107S 661E 15
2921041806 109S 651E 20
2921041812 112S 642E 20
2921041818 115S 622E 20
2921041900 111S 612E 20
2921041906 105S 586E 25
2921041912 114S 573E 25
2921041918 115S 554E 25
2921042000 111S 537E 25
2921042006 108S 524E 30
2921042012 105S 510E 30
2921042018 102S 498E 35
2921042100 99S 488E 45
2921042106 97S 482E 55
2921042106 97S 482E 55
2921042112 98S 478E 55
2921042112 98S 478E 55
2921042118 98S 471E 50
2921042118 98S 471E 50
2921042200 98S 465E 50
2921042200 98S 465E 50
2921042206 97S 457E 50
2921042212 96S 452E 45
2921042218 94S 448E 40
2921042300 91S 443E 45
2921042306 86S 438E 45
2921042312 85S 434E 40
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 8.5S 43.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.5S 43.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 8.0S 42.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 7.7S 41.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 7.5S 40.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 7.3S 39.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 8.4S 43.1E.
23APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 668 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS SITUATED NEAR A 231200Z PGTW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
FIX. THE INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON ASCAT DATA FROM 230613Z
AND 230659Z, WHICH INDICATED 40-45 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE CIRCULATION CENTER, AND AN INTERVENING WEAKENING TREND EVIDENCED
BY DETERIORATING STORM STRUCTURE. TC 29S IS TRACKING TOWARD AN
EXPECTED LANDFALL NEAR DAR ES SALAAM, TANZANIA AROUND TAU 48, UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH. MUCH OF
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS AS THE COMPACT CIRCULATION CONTENDS WITH A LAYER OF
DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS. TC 29S WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AND STEADILY DISSIPATE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD
UNDER THE CURRENT STEERING AND ENVIRONMENTAL INFLUENCES, FALLING
BELOW THE WARNING THRESHOLD INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE MODELS, WITH THE GFS,
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ECMWF TRACKERS DEPICTING POSSIBLE LANDFALL IN
NORTHERN TANZANIA WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE DEPICTS A
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL TANZANIA. LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS CONSISTENT WITH VARYING DEPICTIONS OF THE DISSIPATION TREND. THE
CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK WITH LOW CONFIDENCE GIVEN THE NOTED MODEL
SPREAD. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK, THE SYSTEM WILL VERY LIKELY
MOVE INLAND AS A WEAK REMNANT CIRCULATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z AND 241500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 231230
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/16/20202021
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 16 (JOBO)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 23/04/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 8.9 S / 43.8 E
(HUIT DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUARANTE TROIS DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 997 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 20 SE: 95 SO: 185 NO: 20
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 35 SO: 55 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 24/04/2021 00 UTC: 8.4 S / 42.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 175 SO: 220 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 20 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 20

24H: 24/04/2021 12 UTC: 7.9 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 100 NO: 100

36H: 25/04/2021 00 UTC: 7.5 S / 40.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
PERTURBATION TROPICALE

48H: 25/04/2021 12 UTC: 7.2 S / 39.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

60H: 26/04/2021 00 UTC: 6.7 S / 38.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE


2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN BANDE INCURVE A
EVOLUE EN CENTRE NOYE DANS LA MASSE AVEC DES SOMMETS CONVECTIFS UN
PEU PLUS CHAUDS. LA LOCALISATION DU CENTRE N'EST PAS AISEE QUE CE
SOIT AVEC LES DERNIERES DONNES MICRO-ONDES (NOTAMMENT AVEC AMSR2 DE
1022UTC) OU LES DERNIERES DONNEES ASCAT DE 0700UTC. LA PETITE TAILLE
DU SYSTEME LAISSE PENSER A UNE FORTE INCERTITUDE DANS LA
DETERMINATION DES VENTS ASCAT, AINSI QU'UNE SOUS-ESTIMATION. ON PEUT
ALORS ESTIMER DES VENTS DE 45KT PRINCIPALEMENT DANS LE SECTEUR SUD,
SOUS LA MASSE CONVECTIVE PRINCIPALE.

JOBO RALENTIT LEGEREMENT MAIS CONTINUE SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS
L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST, SOUS L'EFFET DE LA DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHRE
LOCALISEE SUR LE CENTRE DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE ET DU FLUX DE BASSES
COUCHES SUR LA PARTIE NORD DU CANAL. LA DISPERSION ENTRE LES
DIFFERENTES GUIDANCES RESTENT FAIBLE EN DIRECTION MAIS LES MODELES
SEMBLENT UN PEU RAPIDES. LA PRESENTE PREVISION DU CMRS A PRIS EN
COMPTE CE RALENTISSEMENT. JOBO CIRCULE ACTUELLEMENT AU NORD DE
L'ARCHIPEL DES GRANDES COMORES, A PRES DE 250KM ET IL POURSUIVRA SA
ROUTE EN DIRECTION DE LA TANZANIE QU'IL ATTEINDRA DIMANCHE. DU FAIT
DU RALENTISSEMENT, UN ATTERRISSAGE EST DONC PREVU A PROXIMITE DE DAR
ES SALAM DIMANCHE EN COURS DE JOURNEE.

ACTUELLEMENT, LE CISAILLEMENT D'ALTITUDE EST PEU MARQUE ET C'EST
PRINCIPALEMENT UN CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPO D'OUEST QUI SEMBLE
GENE UNE PHASE D'INTENSIFICATION PLUS FRANCHE. UN SCENARIO D'UNE
COURTE FENETRE D'INTENSIFICATION QUI POURRAIT ETRE RAPIDE DU FAIT DE
LA PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME EST ENCORE POSSIBLE. CEPENDANT, LE CMRS
NE SUIT PAS CETTE HYPOTHESE ET RESTE SUR UN MAINTIEN TEMPORAIRE DE
L'INTESITE AU SEUIL MAXIMAL DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE. PAR LA
SUITE, LE CISAILLEMENT FORCIT EN S'ORIENTANT UN PEU PLUS
OUEST-SUD-OUEST PUIS SUD-OUEST EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE CONTRIBUANT A
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME AVANT SON ATTERRISSAGE. LA PETITE TAILLE
DE JOBO INDUIT TOUTEFOIS UNE INCERTITUDE PLUS FORTE QUE LA MOYENNE
SUR LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE. IL PEUT SUBIR DES VARIATIONS
D'INTENSITES RAPIDES.

EN TERMES D'IMPACTS ATTENDUS, DE FORTES PLUIES SONT ENCORE A ATTENDRE
SUR LES ILES DE L'ARCHIPEL DES COMORES EN MARGE DE LA TEMPETE POUVANT
ATTEINDRE 100 A 200MM EN 24H, JUSQU'A DEMAIN SAMEDI. LES RAFALES
DEVRAIENT RESTER MODESTES DE L'ORDRE DE 60 KM/H.
POUR LA TANZANIE, AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT PREVU DU SYSTEME JOBO A
L'ATTERRISSAGE, LES IMPACTS POURRAIENT RESTER LIMITES EN TERME DE
VENT MAIS DE FORTES PLUIES SONT ATTENDUES AU NIVEAU DE LA ZONE
D'ATTERRISSAGE. A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, ON PEUT S'ATTENDRE A AVOIR DES
CUMULS POUVANT ATTEINDRE 250/300M EN 24H, SOIT DES QUANTITES
EQUIVALENTES AU CUMUL MENSUEL POUR UN MOIS D'AVRIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 231230
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/16/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 16 (JOBO)

2.A POSITION 2021/04/23 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.9 S / 43.8 E
(EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 20 SE: 95 SW: 185 NW: 20
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 35 SW: 55 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/04/24 00 UTC: 8.4 S / 42.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 175 SW: 220 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 20 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 20

24H: 2021/04/24 12 UTC: 7.9 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 100 NW: 100

36H: 2021/04/25 00 UTC: 7.5 S / 40.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

48H: 2021/04/25 12 UTC: 7.2 S / 39.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2021/04/26 00 UTC: 6.7 S / 38.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION


2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CURVED BAND PATTERN HAS EVOLVED INTO A
CDO PATTERN WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER CONVECTIVE TOPS. THE LOCATION OF THE
CENTER IS NOT EASY EITHER WITH THE LAST MICROWAVE DATA (ESPECIALLY
WITH AMSR2 OF 1022UTC) OR THE LAST ASCAT DATA OF 0700UTC. THE SMALL
SIZE OF THE SYSTEM SUGGESTS A LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETERMINATION
OF THE ASCAT WINDS, AS WELL AS AN UNDERESTIMATION. WE CAN THEN
ESTIMATE WINDS OF 45KT MAINLY IN THE SOUTH SECTOR, UNDER THE MAIN
CONVECTIVE MASS.

JOBO SLOWS DOWN SLIGHTLY BUT CONTINUES ITS TRACK TOWARDS
WEST-NORTHWEST, UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE LOCATED
OVER THE CENTER OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CHANNEL. THE DISPERSION BETWEEN THE
DIFFERENT GUIDANCES REMAINS WEAK IN DIRECTION BUT THE MODELS SEEM A
QUITE FAST. THE PRESENT RSMC FORECAST HAS TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT THIS
SLOWDOWN. JOBO IS CURRENTLY CIRCULATING NORTH OF THE GREAT COMOROS
ARCHIPELAGO, AT ABOUT 250KM AND WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK TOWARDS
TANZANIA WHICH IT WILL REACH ON SUNDAY. DUE TO THE SLOWDOWN, IT WILL
LAND NEAR DAR ES SALAM ON SUNDAY DURING THE DAY.

AT THE MOMENT, THE UPPER SHEAR IS NOT VERY MARKED AND IT IS MAINLY A
MEDIUM TROPO WESTERLY SHEAR WHICH SEEMS TO LIMIT A MORE FRANK
INTENSIFICATION PHASE. A SCENARIO OF A SHORT INTENSIFICATION WINDOW
WHICH COULD BE RAPID BECAUSE OF THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM IS STILL
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, THE RSMC DOES NOT FOLLOW THIS HYPOTHESIS AND
REMAINS ON A TEMPORARY MAINTENANCE OF THE INTENSITY AT THE MAXIMUM
THRESHOLD OF MODERATE TROPICAL STORM. THEREAFTER, THE SHEAR
STRENGTHENS BY ORIENTING ITSELF A LITTLE MORE WEST-SOUTH-WEST THEN
SOUTH-WEST IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE CONTRIBUTING TO THE WEAKENING OF
THE SYSTEM BEFORE ITS LANDING. THE SMALL SIZE OF JOBO INDUCES HOWEVER
A LARGER THAN AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY ON THE INTENSITY PREDICTION. IT CAN
UNDERGO RAPID INTENSITY VARIATIONS.

IN TERMS OF EXPECTED IMPACTS, HEAVY RAINS ARE STILL TO BE EXPECTED ON
THE ISLANDS OF THE COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO IN THE MARGIN OF THE STORM
THAT CAN REACH 100 TO 200MM IN 24H, UNTIL TOMORROW SATURDAY. THE
GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN MODEST OF ABOUT 60 KM/H.
FOR TANZANIA, WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE JOBO SYSTEM AT THE LANDING,
THE IMPACTS COULD REMAIN LIMITED IN TERMS OF WIND BUT HEAVY RAINS ARE
EXPECTED AT THE LANDING ZONE. FROM SUNDAY, WE CAN EXPECT TO HAVE
ACCUMULATIONS THAT CAN REACH 250/300M IN 24H, THAT IS TO SAY
QUANTITIES EQUIVALENT TO THE MONTHLY ACCUMULATION FOR A MONTH OF
APRIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 231202
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 23/04/2021
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 015/16 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 23/04/2021 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 16 (JOBO) 997 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.9 S / 43.8 E
(EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
20 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 30 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 10
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/04/24 AT 00 UTC:
8.4 S / 42.8 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 40 NM
34 KT NE: 10 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 10 NM

24H, VALID 2021/04/24 AT 12 UTC:
7.9 S / 41.7 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 55 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 230641
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/16/20202021
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 16 (JOBO)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 23/04/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 8.9 S / 44.0 E
(HUIT DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUARANTE QUATRE DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1001 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 23/04/2021 18 UTC: 8.4 S / 42.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 20 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 20

24H: 24/04/2021 06 UTC: 7.9 S / 41.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 185 SO: 185 NO: 55

36H: 24/04/2021 18 UTC: 7.5 S / 40.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE

48H: 25/04/2021 06 UTC: 7.1 S / 39.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

60H: 25/04/2021 18 UTC: 6.6 S / 38.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE


2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION PROFONDE S'EST
MAINTENUE AVEC DES SOMMETS TOUJOURS FROIDS. ELLE SE LOCALISE AU
NIVEAU DU CENTRE ET S'ETEND UN PEU PLUS DANS LA PARTIE SUD-EST DE
JOBO, DEFINISSANT UNE CONFIGURATION EN BANDE INCURVEE. L'ANALYSE
DVORAK DE 3.0+ PERMET D'ESTIMER DES VENTS DE L'ORDRE DE 40KT, MAIS
LES DERNIERES IMAGES VISIBLES LAISSENT APPARAITRE UN POINT CHAUD AU
CENTRE DU CDO. CETTE CARACTERISTIQUE PEUT LAISSER PENSER A UN DEBUT
DE REGAIN D'INTENSITE.

PAS DE BEAUCOUP DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE : JOBO
CONTINUE SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE OUEST-NORD-OUEST, SOUS L'EFFET DE LA
DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHRE LOCALISEE SUR LE CENTRE DU CANAL DU
MOZAMBIQUE ET DU FLUX DE BASSES COUCHES SUR LA PARTIE NORD DU CANAL.
LA DISPERSION PARMI LES DERNIERES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES RESTENT
FAIBLE ET LA PRESENTE PREVISION EST UN CONSENSUS DES PRINCIPAUX
SCENARII. JOBO PASSE AUJOURD'HUI ENTRE 200 ET 300KM AU NORD DE
L'ARCHIPEL DES GRANDES COMORES. IL POURSUIVRA SA ROUTE EN DIRECTION
DE LA TANZANIE QU'IL ATTEINDRA DIMANCHE (ATTENTION DANS LE PRECEDENT
BULLETIN CMRS, UNE ERREUR A ETE FAITE SUR LE JOUR D'ATTERRISSAGE). UN
ATTERRISSAGE EST DONC PREVU A PROXIMITE DE DAR ES SALAM DIMANCHE EN
MATINEE.

A ECHEANCE DE 6-12H, LE CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST POURRAIT FAIBLIR
LEGEREMENT PERMETTANT A JOBO DE MAINTENIR TEMPORAIREMENT UNE
INTENSITE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE. PAR LA SUITE, LE CISAILLEMENT
S'ORIENTANT UN PEU PLUS OUEST-SUD-OUEST PUIS SUD-OUEST EN MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE CONTINUERA D'AFFAIBLIR LE SYSTEME AVANT SON ATTERRISSAGE.
LA PETITE TAILLE DE JOBO INDUIT UNE INCERTITUDE PLUS FORTE QUE LA
MOYENNE SUR LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE. IL PEUT SUBIR DES VARIATIONS
D'INTENSITES RAPIDES.

EN TERMES D'IMPACTS ATTENDUS, DE FORTES PLUIES SONT ENCORE A ATTENDRE
SUR LES ILES DE L'ARCHIPEL DES COMORES EN MARGE DE LA TEMPETE POUVANT
ATTEINDRE 100 A 200MM EN 24H, JUSQU'EN FIN DE SEMAINE. LES RAFALES
DEVRAIENT RESTER MODESTES DE L'ORDRE DE 60 KM/H.
POUR LA TANZANIE, AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT PREVU DU SYSTEME JOBO A
L'ATTERRISSAGE, LES IMPACTS POURRAIENT RESTER LIMITES EN TERME DE
VENT MAIS DE FORTES PLUIES SONT ATTENDUES AU NIVEAU DE LA ZONE
D'ATTERRISSAGE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 230641
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/16/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 16 (JOBO)

2.A POSITION 2021/04/23 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.9 S / 44.0 E
(EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/04/23 18 UTC: 8.4 S / 42.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 20 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 20

24H: 2021/04/24 06 UTC: 7.9 S / 41.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 55

36H: 2021/04/24 18 UTC: 7.5 S / 40.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION

48H: 2021/04/25 06 UTC: 7.1 S / 39.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2021/04/25 18 UTC: 6.6 S / 38.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION


2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0+

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN MAINTAINED WITH
STILL COLD TOPS. IT IS LOCALIZED AT THE CENTER AND EXTENDS A LITTLE
MORE IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF JOBO, DEFINING A CURVED BAND PATTERN.
THE DVORAK ANALYSIS OF 3.0+ ALLOWS TO ESTIMATE WINDS AROUND 40KT, BUT
THE LAST VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW A HOT SPOT IN THE CENTER OF THE CDO.
THIS CHARACTERISTIC CAN SUGGEST A BEGINNING OF A BOOST IN INTENSITY.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK: JOBO CONTINUES ITS
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK, UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERE
RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE CENTER OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AND THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CHANNEL. THE DISPERSION
AMONG THE LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE REMAINS LOW AND THE PRESENT
FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE MAIN SCENARIOS. JOBO IS NOW PASSING
BETWEEN 200 AND 300KM NORTH OF THE GREAT COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO. IT WILL
CONTINUE ITS TRACK TOWARDS TANZANIA WHICH IT WILL REACH ON SUNDAY (BE
CAREFUL IN THE PREVIOUS RSMC BULLETIN, AN ERROR WAS MADE ON THE
LANDING DAY). A LANDING IS FORECASTED NEAR DAR ES SALAM ON SUNDAY
MORNING.

AT 6 OR 12H TIME PERIODS, THE WESTERLY SHEAR COULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
ALLOWING JOBO TO TEMPORARILY MAINTAIN A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
INTENSITY. THEREAFTER, THE SHEAR ORIENTING A LITTLE MORE
WEST-SOUTH-WEST THEN SOUTH-WEST IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BEFORE ITS LANDING. THE SMALL SIZE OF
JOBO INDUCES A LARGER THAN AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY ON THE INTENSITY
FORECAST. IT MAY UNDERGO RAPID VARIATIONS IN INTENSITY.

IN TERMS OF EXPECTED IMPACTS, HEAVY RAINS ARE STILL EXPECTED ON THE
ISLANDS OF THE COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO IN THE MARGIN OF THE STORM THAT
CAN REACH 100 TO 200MM IN 24H, UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK. GUSTS
SHOULD REMAIN MODEST AROUND 60 KM/H.
FOR TANZANIA, WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE JOBO SYSTEM AT THE LANDING,
THE IMPACTS COULD REMAIN LIMITED IN TERMS OF WIND BUT HEAVY RAINS ARE
EXPECTED AT THE LANDING ZONE.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 230300 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO) WARNING NR 005A CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO) WARNING NR 005A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 9.2S 43.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.2S 43.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 8.7S 42.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 8.1S 41.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 7.8S 40.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 7.4S 39.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 7.0S 38.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 9.1S 43.6E.
23APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 29S (JOBO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 618
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED HEAVILY ON A 222206Z AMSR2 SERIES AND SUPPORTED BY
THE PGTW FIX ON ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY. BOTH EIR
AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SHOW A CONVECTIVE BLOOM OVER THE PAST THREE
HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR HAS EASED SIGNIFICANTLY (BELOW 15 KTS). THIS IS REFLECTED
IN THE RECENT ORGANIZATION AND INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 45 KTS BASED ON THE DVORAK
ASSESSMENT OF T3.0 (45 KTS) FROM PGTW AND SUPPORTED BY AN ADT VALUE
OF 49 KTS. TC 29S IS POSITIONED DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH THE SPINE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DEPICTED ON THE 221200Z PGTW UPPER LEVEL
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29 DEGREES
CELSIUS ALONG THE ENTIRETY OF THE TRACK. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT TC 29S WILL TRACK STEADILY NORTHWESTWARD AND WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL SOUTH OF DAR ES SALEM, TANZANIA.
ALTHOUGH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ABUNDANT MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL
MOISTURE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS
ALONG THE STORMS BEARING INDICATE A LAYER OF DRY AREA BETWEEN 3,000
AND 10,000 FT THAT WILL STIFLE ANY MAJOR SURGES IN INTENSIFICATION.
ONCE TC JOBO MAKES LANDFALL, IT WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES
INLAND. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN BOTH THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK AND INTENSITY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS
18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z AND 240300Z.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: FIXED OMITTED ELEVATIONS IN
REMARKS.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 230608
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 23/04/2021
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/16 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 23/04/2021 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 16 (JOBO) 1001 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.9 S / 44.0 E
(EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
30 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 40 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/04/23 AT 18 UTC:
8.4 S / 42.9 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 40 NM
34 KT NE: 10 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 10 NM

24H, VALID 2021/04/24 AT 06 UTC:
7.9 S / 41.8 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 230300
WARNING ATCG MIL 29S SIO 210423014354
2021042300 29S JOBO 005 01 295 08 SATL 060
T000 092S 0439E 045 R034 060 NE QD 035 SE QD 070 SW QD 025 NW QD
T012 087S 0426E 040 R034 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 081S 0415E 040 R034 035 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 078S 0407E 035 R034 030 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 074S 0399E 035 R034 030 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD
T072 070S 0385E 020
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 9.2S 43.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.2S 43.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 8.7S 42.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 8.1S 41.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 7.8S 40.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 7.4S 39.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 7.0S 38.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 9.1S 43.6E.
23APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 618
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z AND 240300Z.
//
2921041418 104S 782E 15
2921041500 102S 776E 15
2921041506 100S 770E 15
2921041512 97S 766E 15
2921041518 98S 762E 15
2921041600 100S 759E 15
2921041606 100S 747E 15
2921041612 102S 735E 15
2921041618 99S 723E 15
2921041700 98S 702E 15
2921041706 98S 687E 15
2921041712 101S 676E 15
2921041718 105S 666E 15
2921041800 107S 661E 15
2921041806 109S 651E 20
2921041812 112S 642E 20
2921041818 115S 622E 20
2921041900 111S 612E 20
2921041906 105S 586E 25
2921041912 114S 573E 25
2921041918 115S 554E 25
2921042000 111S 537E 25
2921042006 108S 524E 30
2921042012 105S 510E 30
2921042018 102S 498E 35
2921042100 99S 488E 45
2921042106 97S 482E 55
2921042106 97S 482E 55
2921042112 98S 478E 55
2921042112 98S 478E 55
2921042118 98S 471E 50
2921042118 98S 471E 50
2921042200 98S 465E 50
2921042200 98S 465E 50
2921042206 97S 457E 50
2921042212 97S 451E 45
2921042218 95S 446E 40
2921042300 92S 439E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 9.2S 43.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.2S 43.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 8.7S 42.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 8.1S 41.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 7.8S 40.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 7.4S 39.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 7.0S 38.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 9.1S 43.6E.
23APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 29S (JOBO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 618
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED HEAVILY ON A 222206Z AMSR2 SERIES AND SUPPORTED BY
THE PGTW FIX ON ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY. BOTH EIR
AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SHOW A CONVECTIVE BLOOM OVER THE PAST THREE
HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR HAS EASED SIGNIFICANTLY (BELOW 15 KTS). THIS IS REFLECTED
IN THE RECENT ORGANIZATION AND INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 45 KTS BASED ON THE DVORAK
ASSESSMENT OF T3.0 (45 KTS) FROM PGTW AND SUPPORTED BY AN ADT VALUE
OF 49 KTS. TC 29S IS POSITIONED DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH THE SPINE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DEPICTED ON THE 221200Z PGTW UPPER LEVEL
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29 DEGREES
CELSIUS ALONG THE ENTIRETY OF THE TRACK. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT TC 29S WILL TRACK STEADILY NORTHWESTWARD AND WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL SOUTH OF DAR ES SALEM, TANZANIA.
ALTHOUGH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ABUNDANT MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL
MOISTURE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS
ALONG THE STORMS BEARING INDICATE A LAYER OF DRY AREA BETWEEN 3 AND
10 FT THAT WILL STIFLE ANY MAJOR SURGES IN INTENSIFICATION. ONCE TC
JOBO MAKES LANDFALL, IT WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INLAND.
OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN BOTH THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
AND INTENSITY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z AND 240300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 230044
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/16/20202021
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 16 (JOBO)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 23/04/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 9.2 S / 44.1 E
(NEUF DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUARANTE QUATRE DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1001 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 23/04/2021 12 UTC: 8.7 S / 43.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 0

24H: 24/04/2021 00 UTC: 8.3 S / 41.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 0

36H: 24/04/2021 12 UTC: 7.9 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

48H: 25/04/2021 00 UTC: 7.5 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

60H: 25/04/2021 12 UTC: 7.0 S / 38.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE


2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION PROFONDE S'EST
MAINTENUE A PROXIMITE DU CENTRE, AVEC DE SOMMETS TOUJOURS FROIDS. LES
DONNEES AMSR2 DE 2206Z, MONTRENT UNE AMELIORATION DE LA CIRCULATION
INTERNE. L'INTENSITE EST DONC MAINTENUE A 40KT.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, JOBO SE DIRIGE VERS LE NORD-OUEST, SOUS
L'EFFET DU RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE SUR LE CENTRE DU
CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE. LA DISPERSION PARMI LES DERNIERES GUIDANCES
DISPONIBLES SEMBLE EN BAISSE. LA PRESENTE PREVISION EST UN CONSENSUS
DES PRINCIPAUX SCENARIOS. IL DEVRAIT PASSER AUJOURD'HUI ENTRE 150 ET
300KM AU NORD DE GRANDE COMORE. SAMEDI, LES RESTES DU SYSTEME
POURRAIENT ATTERRIR SUR LA TANZANIE A PROXIMITE DE DAR ES SALAM.

AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24H, LE CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST-SUD-OUEST EN
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE DEVRAIT FAVORISER L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME,
RENFORCE PAR SA PETITE TAILLE. PAR LA SUITE, JOBO NE DEVRAIT PAS
RETROUVER DE CONDITIONS FAVORABLES ET IL DEVRAIT DISPARAITRE A
PROXIMITE DU LITTORAL TANZANIEN. LA PETITE TAILLE DE JOBO INDUIT UNE
INCERTITUDE PLUS FORTE QUE LA MOYENNE SUR LA PRESENTE PREVISION
D'INTENSITE. IL PEUT SUBIR DES VARIATIONS D'INTENSITES RAPIDES.

EN TERMES D'IMPACTS ATTENDUS, DE FORTES PLUIES SONT ENCORE A ATTENDRE
SUR LES ILES DE L'ARCHIPEL DES COMORES EN MARGE DE LA TEMPETE POUVANT
ATTEINDRE 100 A 200MM EN 24H, JUSQU'EN FIN DE SEMAINE. LES RAFALES
DEVRAIENT RESTER MODESTES DE L'ORDRE DE 60 KM/H. POUR LA TANZANIE,
AVEC LA PROBABLE DISSIPATION DU SYSTEME JOBO A L'ATTERISAGE, LES
IMPACTS POURRAIENT RESTER LIMITES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 230044
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/16/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 16 (JOBO)

2.A POSITION 2021/04/23 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.2 S / 44.1 E
(NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/04/23 12 UTC: 8.7 S / 43.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 0

24H: 2021/04/24 00 UTC: 8.3 S / 41.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 0

36H: 2021/04/24 12 UTC: 7.9 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

48H: 2021/04/25 00 UTC: 7.5 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING UP

60H: 2021/04/25 12 UTC: 7.0 S / 38.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION


2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, DEEP CONVECTION MAITAINED NEAR THE CENTER WITH
VERY COLD TOPS 2206Z AMSR2 DATA SHOW AN IMPROVEMENT OF THE INNER
CORE. INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 40Z.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, JOBO IS HEADING NORTHWEST, UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.
THE SPREAD AMONG THE LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE
DECREASING.THE PRESENT FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE MAIN SCENARIOS.
JOBO SHOULD PASS TODAY BETWEEN 150 AND 300KM NORTH OF GRANDE COMORE.
ON SATURDAY, THE REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM COULD LAND OVER TANZANIA NEAR
DAR ES SALAM.

DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE SHOULD FAVOR THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM INCREASED BY
ITS SMALL SIZE. THEREAFTER, JOBO SHOULD NOT FIND FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
AND SHOULD DISAPPEAR NEAR THE TANZANIAN COAST. THE SMALL SIZE OF JOBO
INDUCES A HIGHER THAN AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY ON THE PRESENT INTENSITY
FORECAST. RAPID INTENSITY CHANGES ARE STILL POSSIBLE.

IN TERMS OF FORECAST IMPACTS, HEAVY RAINS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER THE
ISLANDS OF THE COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO IN THE MARGIN OF THE STORM, UP TO
100 TO 200MM IN 24H, UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK. GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN
MODEST AROUND 60 KM/H.FOR TANZANIA, WITH THE PROBABLE DISSIPATION OF
THE JOBO SYSTEM AT LANDING, THE IMPACTS COULD REMAIN LIMITED.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 230028
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 23/04/2021
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/16 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 23/04/2021 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 16 (JOBO) 1001 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.2 S / 44.1 E
(NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
30 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 40 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/04/23 AT 12 UTC:
8.7 S / 43.0 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2021/04/24 AT 00 UTC:
8.3 S / 41.9 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 221901
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/16/20202021
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 16 (JOBO)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 22/04/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 9.4 S / 44.6 E
(NEUF DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUARANTE QUATRE DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1001 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 23/04/2021 06 UTC: 9.0 S / 43.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 0

24H: 23/04/2021 18 UTC: 8.5 S / 42.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 0

36H: 24/04/2021 06 UTC: 7.9 S / 41.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 0

48H: 24/04/2021 18 UTC: 7.4 S / 40.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

60H: 25/04/2021 06 UTC: 6.9 S / 39.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE


2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, UNE PUISSANTE POUSSEE CONVECTIVE
S'EST FORMEE DANS LA PARTIE SUD-EST DU CENTRE ASSOCIEE A DES SOMMETS
PARTICULIEREMENT FROIDS. CETTE EVOLUTION NE SEMBLE CEPENDANT PAS LIEE
A UNE EVENTUELLE INTENSIFICATION EN RAISON DU CISAILLEMENT MODERE DE
SECTEUR OUEST EN COURS DE RENFORCEMENT. LES PASSES ASCAT DE 1701Z ET
1815Z MONTRENT LA PRESENCE DE COUP DE VENT AU SEIN DE LA PARTIE SUD
D'UNE CIRCULATION DE SURFACE TRES ALLONGEE ET ASSYMA TRIQUE.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, JOBO SE DIRIGE VERS LE NORD-OUEST, SOUS
L'EFFET DU RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE SUR LE CENTRE DU
CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE. LA DISPERSION PARMI LES DERNIERES GUIDANCES
DISPONIBLES SEMBLE EN BAISSE. LA PRESENTE PREVISION EST UN CONSENSUS
DES PRINCIPAUX SCENARIOS. IL DEVRAIT PASSER DEMAIN ENTRE 150 ET 300KM
AU NORD DE GRANDE COMORE. SAMEDI, LES RESTES DU SYSTEME POURRAIENT
ATTERRIR SUR LA TANZANIE A PROXIMITE DE DAR ES SALAM.

AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24H, LE CISAILLEMENT DE SUD-OUEST EN MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE DEVRAIT FAVORISER L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME RENFORCEE
PAR SA PETITE TAILLE. PAR LA SUITE, JOBO NE DEVRAIT PAS RETROUVER DE
CONDITIONS FAVORABLES ET IL DEVRAIT DISPARAITRE A PROXIMITE DU
LITTORAL TANZANIEN. LA PETITE TAILLE DE JOBO INDUIT UNE INCERTITUDE
PLUS FORTE QUE LA MOYENNE SUR LA PRESENTE PREVISION D'INTENSITE.

EN TERMES D'IMPACTS ATTENDUS, DE FORTES PLUIES SONT ENCORE A ATTENDRE
SUR LES ILES DE L'ARCHIPEL DES COMORES EN MARGE DE LA TEMPETE POUVANT
ATTEINDRE 100 A 200MM EN 24H, JUSQU'EN FIN DE SEMAINE. LES RAFALES
DEVRAIENT RESTER MODESTES DE L'ORDRE DE 60 KM/H. POUR LA TANZANIE,
AVEC LA PROBABLE DISSAPATION DU SYSTEME JOBO A L'ATTERISAGE, LES
IMPACTS POURRAIENT RESTER LIMITES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 221901
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/16/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 16 (JOBO)

2.A POSITION 2021/04/22 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.4 S / 44.6 E
(NINE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/04/23 06 UTC: 9.0 S / 43.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 0

24H: 2021/04/23 18 UTC: 8.5 S / 42.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 0

36H: 2021/04/24 06 UTC: 7.9 S / 41.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 0

48H: 2021/04/24 18 UTC: 7.4 S / 40.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

60H: 2021/04/25 06 UTC: 6.9 S / 39.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION


2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, A STRONG CONVECTIVE BURST HAS FORMED IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH PARTICULARLY COLD
TOPS. HOWEVER, THIS EVOLUTION DOES NOT SEEM TO BE RELATED TO A
POSSIBLE INTENSIFICATION BECAUSE OF THE STRENGTHENING MODERATE
WESTERLY SHEAR. THE 1701Z AND 1815Z ASCAT SWATHS SHOW THE PRESENCE OF
GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF A VERY ELONGATED AND
ASYMMETRIC SURFACE CIRCULATION.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, JOBO IS HEADING NORTHWEST, UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.
THE SPREAD AMONG THE LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE
DECREASING.THE PRESENT FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE MAIN SCENARIOS.
JOBO SHOULD PASS TOMORROW BETWEEN 150 AND 300KM NORTH OF GRANDE
COMORE. ON SATURDAY, THE REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM COULD LAND OVER
TANZANIA NEAR DAR ES SALAM.

DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE SHOULD FAVOR THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM FAVORED BY
ITS SMALL SIZE. THEREAFTER, JOBO SHOULD NOT FIND FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
AND SHOULD DISAPPEAR NEAR THE TANZANIAN COAST. THE SMALL SIZE OF JOBO
INDUCES A HIGHER THAN AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY ON THE PRESENT INTENSITY
FORECAST.

IN TERMS OF FORECAST IMPACTS, HEAVY RAINS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER THE
ISLANDS OF THE COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO IN THE MARGIN OF THE STORM, UP TO
100 TO 200MM IN 24H, UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK. GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN
MODEST AROUND 60 KM/H.FOR TANZANIA, WITH THE PROBABLE DISSIPATION OF
THE JOBO SYSTEM AT LANDING, THE IMPACTS COULD REMAIN LIMITED.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 221824
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 22/04/2021
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/16 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 22/04/2021 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 16 (JOBO) 1001 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.4 S / 44.6 E
(NINE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
30 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 40 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/04/23 AT 06 UTC:
9.0 S / 43.5 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 0 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2021/04/23 AT 18 UTC:
8.5 S / 42.2 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 221500
WARNING ATCG MIL 29S SIO 210422131515
2021042212 29S JOBO 004 01 280 06 SATL 030
T000 099S 0451E 045 R034 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 035 NW QD
T012 097S 0440E 045 R034 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 093S 0429E 040 R034 035 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 088S 0418E 040 R034 030 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 083S 0407E 035
T072 080S 0391E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 9.9S 45.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.9S 45.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 9.7S 44.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 9.3S 42.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 8.8S 41.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 8.3S 40.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 8.0S 39.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 9.9S 44.8E.
22APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 558
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 230300Z AND 231500Z.
//
2921041418 104S 782E 15
2921041500 102S 776E 15
2921041506 100S 770E 15
2921041512 97S 766E 15
2921041518 98S 762E 15
2921041600 100S 759E 15
2921041606 100S 747E 15
2921041612 102S 735E 15
2921041618 99S 723E 15
2921041700 98S 702E 15
2921041706 98S 687E 15
2921041712 101S 676E 15
2921041718 105S 666E 15
2921041800 107S 661E 15
2921041806 109S 651E 20
2921041812 112S 642E 20
2921041818 115S 622E 20
2921041900 111S 612E 20
2921041906 105S 586E 25
2921041912 114S 573E 25
2921041918 115S 554E 25
2921042000 111S 537E 25
2921042006 108S 524E 30
2921042012 105S 510E 30
2921042018 102S 498E 35
2921042100 99S 488E 45
2921042106 97S 482E 55
2921042106 97S 482E 55
2921042112 98S 478E 55
2921042112 98S 478E 55
2921042118 100S 472E 50
2921042118 100S 472E 50
2921042200 100S 465E 50
2921042200 100S 465E 50
2921042206 100S 457E 50
2921042212 99S 451E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 10.4S 46.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.4S 46.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 10.2S 45.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 9.9S 44.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 9.4S 43.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 9.0S 42.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 8.4S 40.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 8.2S 39.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 8.0S 37.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 10.4S 46.2E.
22APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 513
NM NORTH OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS THAT THE STORM IS STRUGGLING TO
FURTHER DEVELOP AND HAS ELONGATED ALONG A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
TROUGH AXIS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE LOW LEVEL BANDING PRESENT IN THE EIR LOOP AND IN A
TIMELY 220131Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS
PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTIAGENCY DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KTS, PGTW) AND T4.0 (65 KTS, FMEE)
WHICH BOUND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS OF 51 KTS
(212230Z SATCON) AND 57 KTS (ADT). THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING DIRECTLY
UNDERNEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING AND
MODERATE (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DESPITE THIS MODERATE VWS
AND CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT, THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING OVER VERY
FAVORABLE 29 DEGREE CELSIUS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC JOBO WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. DESPITE LOWER AND MORE FAVORABLE VWS AFTER TAU 24,
CONTINUED CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT WILL HINDER INTENSIFICATION. OF
NOTE, THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS THAT TC JOBO WILL INTENSIFY JUST PRIOR
TO LANDFALL. THIS SCENARIO IS CAPTURED IN THE MESOSCALE HWRF
SOLUTION NEAR TAU 96; HOWEVER, IT IS NOT REFLECTED IN ANY OTHER
MEMBERS OF THE ICNW CONSENSUS. TROPICAL CYCLONE JOBO WILL
MOVE ASHORE OVER MOZAMIBIQUE JUST AFTER TAU 96 AND SUBSEQUENTLY
DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 120. MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT
AND IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, INDICATING A SLOW TRACK TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z AND 230300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 221238
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/16/20202021
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 16 (JOBO)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 22/04/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 9.5 S / 45.0 E
(NEUF DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUARANTE CINQ DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1001 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SO: 75 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 45 NO: 45

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1012 HPA / 300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 23/04/2021 00 UTC: 9.2 S / 43.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 65
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 55

24H: 23/04/2021 12 UTC: 8.8 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 85 SO: 65 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 10 SO: 10 NO: 45

36H: 24/04/2021 00 UTC: 8.1 S / 41.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 10 SE: 30 SO: 20 NO: 55

48H: 24/04/2021 12 UTC: 7.5 S / 40.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

60H: 25/04/2021 00 UTC: 6.9 S / 39.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, SE
DISSIPANT

72H: 25/04/2021 12 UTC: 6.2 S / 38.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.5;CI=3.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LES SOMMETS NUAGEUX SE SONT
RECHAUFFES ET LA CONVECTION S'EST CONSIDA RABLEMENT DESTRUCTURA E,
SOUS L'EFFET D'UN CISAILLEMENT MODA RA DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE DE
SECTEUR NORD A NORD-OUEST, FAVORISE PAR LE PASSAGE D'UN THALWEG
D'ALTITUDE PLUS AU SUD. EN L'ABSENCE DE DONNA ES SCATTEROMA TRIQUES
ET D'IMAGES MICRO-ONDES, LE DEGRA DE CONFIANCE DANS LA POSITION DU
CENTRE DE JOBO EST JUGA MOYEN. LA DERNIERE ANALYSE DE DVORAK A
CONDUIT AU DA CLASSEMENT DU SYSTEME AU STADE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, JOBO POURSUIT SON MOUVEMENT EN DIRECTION
GENERALE DE L'OUEST SUR LA FACE NORD DES HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS
SUBTROPICAUX. DEMAIN, JOBO DEVRAIT ENSUITE ENTAMER PROGRESSIVEMENT UN
VIRAGE VERS LE NORD-OUEST, SOUS L'EFFET DU RENFORCEMENT DE LA DOSALE
D'ALTITUDE DISPOSEE SUR LE CENTRE DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE. SAMEDI,
AVEC LA BAISSE D'INTENSITE DE JOBO, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR EST REPRIS EN
BASSES COUCHES ET ORIENTE LE SYSTA ME PLUS FRANCHEMENT DANS UNE
DIRECTION NORD-OUEST. LA DISPERSION AUTOUR DE CE SCENARIO RESTE
MODEREE CAR IL SUBSISTE ENCORE DE FORTES DIFFERENCES DE TIMING ENTRE
MODELES.

AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24H, LE CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST EN MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE DEVRAIT CONTINUER DE GENER LE DEVELOPPEMENT DE JOBO. SON
INTENSITE DEVRAIT ACCUSER UNE BAISSE PROGRESSIVE. A PARTIR DE DEMAIN,
LE CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST FORCISSANT LEGEREMENT, DEVRAIT APPORTER
D'AVANTAGE D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE ET LANCER UNE PHASE
D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT PLUS FRANCHE. LA PETITE TAILLE DU COEUR
DEPRESSIONNAIRE LE RENDANT TRES REACTIF A SON ENVIRONNEMENT, LES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES A VENIR A PARTIR DE SAMEDI DEVRAIENT
AFFAIBLIR NOTABLEMENT LE SYSTEME A L'APPROCHE DES CA TES
TANZANIENNES. TOUTEFOIS EN RAISON DE LA TAILLE DE JOBO,CELA INDUIT
UNE INCERTITUDE PLUS FORTE QUE LA MOYENNE SUR LA PRESENTE PREVISION
D'INTENSITE.

EN TERMES D'IMPACTS ATTENDUS SUR LES ILES EXTERIEURES DES SEYCHELLES
(ALDABRA, ASTOVE ET COSMOLEDO): LES RISQUES DE VENTS FORTS ET DE
FORTES PLUIES DIMINUENT DANS LES PROCHAINES 24H, A MESURE DE LA
PROGRESSION DE JOBO VERS L'OUEST ET DE SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT PROBABLE,
TOUTEFOIS DES PLUIES INTENSES DE L'ORDRE DE 100 MM RESTENT POSSIBLES.
AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 48HRS, LES COMORES DEVRAIENT ETRE AFFECTEES
PAR LE PASSAGE DE BANDES PLUVIO-ORAGEUSES PERIPHERIQUES.
DU FAIT DE LA PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME JOBO, LA ZONE GEOGRAPHIQUE
CONCERNEE PAR DES CONDITIONS TRES PERTURBEES EST TRES LIMITEE, D'OU
UNE FORTE INCERTITUDE SUR LES ZONES IMPACTEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 221238
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/16/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 16 (JOBO)

2.A POSITION 2021/04/22 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.5 S / 45.0 E
(NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 75 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/04/23 00 UTC: 9.2 S / 43.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 65
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 55

24H: 2021/04/23 12 UTC: 8.8 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 10 SW: 10 NW: 45

36H: 2021/04/24 00 UTC: 8.1 S / 41.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 10 SE: 30 SW: 20 NW: 55

48H: 2021/04/24 12 UTC: 7.5 S / 40.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

60H: 2021/04/25 00 UTC: 6.9 S / 39.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DISSIPATING

72H: 2021/04/25 12 UTC: 6.2 S / 38.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5;CI=3.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE TOPS HAVE WARMED UP AND THE CONVECTION HAS
CONSIDERABLY DETERIORED, UNDER THE EFFECT OF A MODERATE NORTH TO
NORTH-WEST MID-LEVEL SHEAR, FAVORED BY THE DRIFT OF AN UPPER TROUGH
FURTHER SOUTH. DUE TO THE LACK OF SCATTEROMETRIC DATA AND MICROWAVE
IMAGES, THE DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN THE POSITION OF THE JOBO CENTER
IS CONSIDERED MEDIUM. THE LAST DVORAK ANALYSIS LED TO THE DOWNGRADING
OF THE SYSTEM TO A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, JOBO HAS RESUMED A WESTWARD MOTION ON THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS.
TOMORROW, JOBO SHOULD THEN START A GRADUAL TURN TOWARDS THE
NORTHWEST, UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. ON SATURDAY, WITH THE DECREASE OF
JOBO'S INTENSITY, THE STEERING FLOW IS RESUMED IN LOW LAYERS AND WILL
ORIENTATE THE SYSTEM MORE FRANKLY IN A NORTH-WEST DIRECTION. THE
DISPERSION AROUND THIS SCENARIO REMAINS MODERATE AS THERE ARE STILL
STRONG DIFFERENCES IN TIMING BETWEEN NUMERICAL MODELS.

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD
CONTINUE TO HINDER JOBO DEVELOPMENT. ITS INTENSITY SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECREASE. FROM TOMORROW, THE WESTERLY SHEAR STRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY,
SHOULD BRING MORE DRY AIR IN THE UPPER-ATMOSPHERE AND START A
STRONGER WEAKENING PHASE. THE SMALL SIZE OF JOBO MAKE IT VERY
REACTIVE TO ITS ENVIRONMENT, THUS THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TO
COME FROM SATURDAY SHOULD WEAKEN THE SYSTEM NOTICEABLY AS IT
APPROACHES THE TANZANIAN COAST. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE SIZE OF JOBO,
THIS INDUCES A HIGHER THAN AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY ON THE PRESENT
INTENSITY FORECAST.

IN TERMS OF EXPECTED IMPACTS ON THE OUTER ISLANDS OF THE SEYCHELLES
(ALDABRA, ASTOVE AND COSMOLEDO): THE RISK OF STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINS DECREASES IN THE NEXT 24HRS, AS JOBO PROGRESSES WESTWARD AND
WEAKENS, BUT INTENSE RAINS OF ABOUT 100 MM ARE STILL POSSIBLE. DURING
THE NEXT 48HRS, THE COMOROS SHOULD BE AFFECTED BY THE PASSAGE OF
PERIPHERAL RAINSTORM BANDS. BECAUSE OF JOBO'S SMALL SIZE, THE AREA
AFFECTED BY SEVERE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS VERY NARROW, HENCE HIGH
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THESE IMPACTS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 221205
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 22/04/2021
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 011/16 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 22/04/2021 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 16 (JOBO) 1001 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.5 S / 45.0 E
(NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 175 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 370 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 40
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/04/23 AT 00 UTC:
9.2 S / 43.7 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 35 NM
34 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 15 NM SW: 15 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2021/04/23 AT 12 UTC:
8.8 S / 42.4 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 5 NM SW: 5 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 220646
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/16/20202021
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 16 (JOBO)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 22/04/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 9.4 S / 45.4 E
(NEUF DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUARANTE CINQ DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 335 SO: 220 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SO: 40 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 22/04/2021 18 UTC: 9.5 S / 44.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 305 SO: 295 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 120 SO: 130 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 45

24H: 23/04/2021 06 UTC: 9.1 S / 42.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 315 SO: 295 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 130 SO: 140 NO: 100

36H: 23/04/2021 18 UTC: 8.6 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 315 SO: 295 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 100

48H: 24/04/2021 06 UTC: 7.9 S / 40.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 315 SO: 295 NO: 150

60H: 24/04/2021 18 UTC: 7.0 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

72H: 25/04/2021 06 UTC: 6.4 S / 39.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, SE
DISSIPANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0;CI=3.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION EST RESTEE FORTE DANS
LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. LES ANALYSES MODELES ET CIMSS SUGGERENT TOUJOURS
UN CISAILLEMENT MODERE DE NORD A NORD-OUEST EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE.
AINSI, UNE CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE CISAILLEE S'EST AFFIRMEE AU COURS
DES DERNIERES HEURES ET EST BIEN VISIBLE SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES
SATELLITAIRES. L'IMAGE SSMIS 37GHZ DE 0130Z REVELE UNE STRUCTURE
INTERNE EN ACCORD AVEC CETTE CONFIGURATION GENERALE, ERRODA E DANS SA
PARTIE NORD-OUEST, AVEC UNE CONVECTION INTENSE TOUJOURS CONCENTREE
DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD UNIQUEMENT.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, JOBO POURSUIT SON MOUVEMENT EN DIRECTION
GENERALE VERS L'OUEST SUR LA FACE NORD DES HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS
SUBTROPICAUX. DEMAIN, JOBO DEVRAIT ENSUITE ENTAMER PROGRESSIVEMENT UN
VIRAGE VERS LE NORD-OUEST. LA DISPERSION AUTOUR DE CE SCENARIO EST
MODEREE. IL SUBSISTE ENCORE DES FORTES DIFFERENCES DE TIMING ENTRE
MODELES (SCENARIOS HWRF ET UKMO) MAIS GFS ET IFS SONT DESORMAIS
PLUTOT EN BON ACCORD.

AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24H, LE CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST EN MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE DEVRAIT CONTINUER DE GENER LE DEVELOPPEMENT DE JOBO. SON
INTENSITE DEVRAIT DONC RESTER PLUS OU MOINS STATIONNAIRE VOIRE
DIMINUER LENTEMENT. A PARTIR DE DEMAIN, LE CISAILLEMENT TOURNE A
L'OUEST EN FORCISSANT LEGEREMENT, CE QUI DEVRAIT LANCER UNE PHASE
D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT PLUS FRANCHE, D'AUTANT QUE DE L'AIR TRES SEC EST
PRESENT A PARTIR DE VENDREDI SOIR. LA PETITE TAILLE DU COEUR
DEPRESSIONNAIRE LE RENDANT TRES REACTIF A SON ENVIRONNEMENT, CELA
INDUIT UNE INCERTITUDE PLUS FORTE QUE LA MOYENNE SUR LA PRESENTE
PREVISION D'INTENSITE.

IMPACTS POSSIBLES ATTENDUS SUR LES ILES EXTERIEURES DES SEYCHELLES
(ALDABRA, ASTOVE ET COSMOLEDO) :
-PLUIES INTENSES POUVANT EXCEDER LES 100 A 150 MM EN 24H,
AMELIORATION GRADUELLE POUR ASTOVE ET COSMOLEDO.
-VENTS FORTS SUR ALDABRA : DES CONDITIONS CYCLONIQUES SONT PROBABLES
(RAFALES SUPERIEURES A 150 KM/H)
-MER DANGEREUSE: VAGUES DEPASSANT LOCALEMENT LES 6 METRES.
AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 48HRS, LES COMORES DEVRAIENT ETRE AFFECTEES
PAR LE PASSAGE DE BANDES PLUVIO-ORAGEUSES PERIPHERIQUES.
DU FAIT DE LA PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME JOBO, LA ZONE GEOGRAPHIQUE
CONCERNEE PAR DES CONDITIONS TRES PERTURBEES EST TRES LIMITEE, D'OU
UNE FORTE INCERTITUDE SUR LES ZONES IMPACTEES. DEE=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 220647
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/16/20202021
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 16 (JOBO)

2.A POSITION 2021/04/22 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.4 S / 45.4 E
(NINE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FIVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 335 SW: 220 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 40 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/04/22 18 UTC: 9.5 S / 44.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 305 SW: 295 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45

24H: 2021/04/23 06 UTC: 9.1 S / 42.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 315 SW: 295 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 100

36H: 2021/04/23 18 UTC: 8.6 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 315 SW: 295 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 100

48H: 2021/04/24 06 UTC: 7.9 S / 40.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 315 SW: 295 NW: 150

60H: 2021/04/24 18 UTC: 7.0 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

72H: 2021/04/25 06 UTC: 6.4 S / 39.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DISSIPATING

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0;CI=3.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION HAS REMAINED STRONG ON THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND CIMSS ANALYSES STILL
SUGGEST A MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHWEST ID-LAYER SHEAR. THUS, A SHEARED
CLOUD PATTERN HAS BEEN OBSERVED DURING THE LAST HOURS AND IS WELL
VISIBLE ON THE LAST SATELLITE IMAGES. THE 0130Z 37GHZ SSMIS IMAGE
DEPICTS AN INTERNAL STRUCTURE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS GENERAL PATTERN,
ERODED IN ITS NORTH-WESTERN PART, WITH AN INTENSE CONVECTION STILL
CONCENTRATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE ONLY.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, JOBO HAS RESUMED A WESTWARD MOTION ON THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS. TOMORROW, JOBO SHOULD
THEN START A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST. THE DISPERSION AROUND
THIS SCENARIO IS MODERATE. SOME STRONG TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN
BETWEEN THE AVAILABLE MODELS (UKMO AND HWRF) BUT GFS AND IFS ARE NOW
IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT.

OVER THE NEXT 24H, THE NORTH-WESTERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR SHEAR SHOULD
KEEP ON HINDERING JOBO'S DEVELOPMENT. THE INTENSITY IS THUS EXPECTED
TO REMAINS SOMEWHAT STATIONARY OR EVEN DECREASE A BIT. FROM TOMORROW,
THE SHEAR SHOULD TURN WESTERLY WHILE STRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY, THUS
TRIGGERING A CLEARER WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. DRY AIR SHOULD ALSO BE
MORE PRESENT FROM FRIDAY EVENING. JOBO'S SMALL SIZE MAKES IT VERY
SENSIBLE TO ITS ENVIRONMENT, THUS INDUCING A GREATER UNCERTAINTY THAN
USUAL ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST.

POSSIBLE IMPACTS EXPECTED ON THE OUTER ISLANDS OF THE SEYCHELLES
(ALDABRA, ASTOVE, COSMOLEDO) :
-INTENSE RAINFALL THAT COULD EXCEED 100 TO 150 MM IN 24 HOURS,
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS OF THE WEATEHR CONDITIONS FOR ASTOVE AND
COSMOLEDO.
-STRONG WINDS OVER ALDABRA : CYCLONIC CONDITIONS (GUSTS OVER 150
KM/H) ARE LIKELY.
-DANGEROUS SEA CONDITIONS: WAVES EXCEEDING 6 METERS LOCALLY.
OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS, COMOROS ARE LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY THE
PASSAGE OF PERIPHERAL RAINBANDS.
BECAUSE OF JOBO'S SMALL SIZE, THE AREA AFFECTED BY SEVERE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IS VERY NARROW, HENCE HIGH UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THESE
IMPACTS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 220615
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 22/04/2021
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 010/16 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 22/04/2021 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 16 (JOBO) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.4 S / 45.4 E
(NINE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FIVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 15 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 20 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/04/22 AT 18 UTC:
9.5 S / 44.3 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 165 NM SW: 160 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2021/04/23 AT 06 UTC:
9.1 S / 42.8 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 160 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 55 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 220020
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/16/20202021
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 16 (JOBO)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 22/04/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 9.7 S / 46.5 E
(NEUF DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUARANTE SIX DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 988 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 335 SO: 220 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SO: 40 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 22/04/2021 12 UTC: 9.5 S / 44.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 175 SO: 150 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 65 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 30 SO: 35 NO: 35

24H: 23/04/2021 00 UTC: 9.4 S / 43.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 65
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 35

36H: 23/04/2021 12 UTC: 9.1 S / 41.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 110 SO: 85 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 20 NO: 100

48H: 24/04/2021 00 UTC: 8.6 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 110 SO: 85 NO: 55

60H: 24/04/2021 12 UTC: 7.9 S / 40.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

72H: 25/04/2021 00 UTC: 6.8 S / 39.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, SE
DISSIPANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.5;CI=4.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION EST RESTEE FORTE DANS
LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. LES ANALYSES MODELES ET CIMSS SUGGERENT TOUJOURS
UN CISAILLEMENT MODERE DE NORD A NORD-OUEST EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE.
AINSI, UNE CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE CISAILLEE S'EST AFFIRMEE AU COURS
DES DERNIERES HEURES. L'IMAGE GMI DE 1833Z REVELE UNE STRUCTURE
INTERNE EN ACCORD AVEC CETTE CONFIGURATION GENERALE, AVEC UNE
CONVECTION INTENSE CONCENTREE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST UNIQUEMENT.
UNE PASSE SMAP A ESTIME LE VENT MAX A 53KT A 15Z.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, JOBO A REPRIS UN MOUVEMENT EN DIRECTION
GENERALE DE L'OUEST SUR LA FACE NORD DES HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS
SUBTROPICAUX. DEMAIN, JOBO DEVRAIT CONTINUER VERS L'OUEST AVANT UN
VIRAGE VERS LE NORD-OUEST ENSUITE. LA DISPERSION AUTOUR DE CE
SCENARIO EST MODEREE. IL SUBSISTE ENCORE DES FORTES DIFFERENCES DE
TIMING ENTRE MODELES (SCENARIOS HWRF ET UKMO) MAIS GFS ET IFS SONT
DESORMAIS PLUTOT EN BON ACCORD.

AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24H, LE CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST AUX
NIVEAUX MOYENS DEVRAIT CONTINUER DE GENER LE DEVELOPPEMENT DE JOBO.
SON INTENSITE DEVRAIT DONC RESTER PLUS OU MOINS STATIONNAIRE VOIRE
DIMINUER. A PARTIR DE DEMAIN SOIR, LE CISAILLEMENT TOURNE A L'OUEST
EN FORCISSANT LEGEREMENT, CE QUI DEVRAIT LANCER UNE PHASE
D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT PLUS FRANCHE, D'AUTANT QUE DE L'AIR TRES SEC EST
PRESENT A PARTIR DE VENDREDI SOIR. LA PETITE TAILLE DU COEUR
DEPRESSIONNAIRE LE RENDANT TRES REACTIF A SON ENVIRONNEMENT, CELA
INDUIT UNE INCERTITUDE PLUS FORTE QUE LA MOYENNE SUR LA PRESENTE
PREVISION D'INTENSITE.

IMPACTS POSSIBLES ATTENDUS SUR LES ILES EXTERIEURES DES SEYCHELLES
(ALDABRA, ASTOVE ET COSMOLEDO) :
-PLUIES TRES INTENSES POUVANT EXCEDER LES 200 MM EN 24H, AMELIORATION
GRADUELLE POUR ASTOVE ET COSMOLEDO
-VENTS FORTS SUR ALDABRA : DES CONDITIONS CYCLONIQUES SONT PROBABLES
(RAFALES SUPERIEURES A 150 KM/H)
-MER DANGEREUSE: VAGUES DEPASSANT LOCALEMENT LES 6 METRES.
AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 48HRS, LES COMORES DEVRAIENT AFFECTEES PAR LE
PASSAGE DE BANDES PLUVIO-ORAGEUSES PERIPHERIQUES.
DU FAIT DE LA PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME JOBO, LA ZONE GEOGRAPHIQUE
CONCERNEE PAR DES CONDITIONS TRES PERTURBEES EST TRES LIMITEE, D'OU
UNE FORTE INCERTITUDE SUR LES ZONES IMPACTEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 220020
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/16/20202021
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 16 (JOBO)

2.A POSITION 2021/04/22 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.7 S / 46.5 E
(NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 335 SW: 220 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 40 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/04/22 12 UTC: 9.5 S / 44.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 65 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 30 SW: 35 NW: 35

24H: 2021/04/23 00 UTC: 9.4 S / 43.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 65
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2021/04/23 12 UTC: 9.1 S / 41.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 20 NW: 100

48H: 2021/04/24 00 UTC: 8.6 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 55

60H: 2021/04/24 12 UTC: 7.9 S / 40.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

72H: 2021/04/25 00 UTC: 6.8 S / 39.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DISSIPATING

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5;CI=4.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HRS, CONVECTION REMAINED STRONG ON THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. THE MODEL AND CIMSS ANALYSIS STILL SUGGEST A MODERATE
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY ID-LAYER SHEAR. A SHEARED CLOUD PATTERN
EMERGED OVER THE LAST HOURS. THE 1833Z GMI IMAGE REVEALS AN INNER
STRUCTURE COHERENT WITH THIS GENERAL CONFIGURATION, WITH INTENSE
CONVECTION CONCENTRATED ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A SMAP SWATH
ESTIMATED MAX WINDS AT 53KT AT 15Z.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, JOBO HAS RESUMED A WESTWARD MOTION ON THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS. TOMORROW, JOBO SHOULD
CONTINUE WESTWARD BEFORE A NORTH-WESTWARD TURN LATER ON. THE
DISPERSION AROUND THIS SCENARIO IS MODERATE. SOME STRONG TIMING
DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN THE AVAILABLE MODELS (UKMO AND HWRF) BUT
GFS AND IFS ARE NOW IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT.

OVER THE NEXT 24H, THE AFOREMENTIONNED NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR AT THE
MID-LEVELS SHOULD KEEP ON HINDERING JOBO'S DEVELOPMENT. THE INTENSITY
IS THUS EXPECTED TO REMAINS SOMEWHAT STATIONARY OR EVEN DECREASE A
BIT. FROM TOMORROW EVENING, THE SHEAR SHOULD TURN WESTERLY WHILE
STRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY, THUS TRIGGERING A CLEARER WEAKENING. DRY AIR
SHOULD ALSO BE MORE PRESENT FROM FRIDAY EVENING. JOBO'S SMALL SIZE
MAKES IT VERY SENSIBLE TO ITS ENVIRONMENT, THUS INDUCING A GREATER
UNCERTAINTY THAN USUAL ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST.

POSSIBLE IMPACTS EXPECTED ON THE OUTER ISLANDS OF THE SEYCHELLES
(ALDABRA, ASTOVE, COSMOLEDO) :
-VERY INTENSE RAINFALL THAT COULD EXCEED 200 MM IN 24 HOURS, GRADUAL
AMELIORATION FOR ASTOVE AND COSMOLEDO
-STRONG WINDS OVER ALDABRA : CYCLONIC CONDITIONS (GUSTS OVER 150
KM/H) ARE LIKELY
-DANGEROUS SEA CONDITIONS: WAVES EXCEEDING 6 METERS LOCALLY.
OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS, COMOROS ARE LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY THE
PASSAGE OF PERIPHERAL RAINBANDS.
BECAUSE OF JOBO'S SMALL SIZE, THE AREA AFFECTED BY SEVERE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IS VERY NARROW, HENCE HIGH UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THESE
IMPACTS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 220010
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 22/04/2021
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/16 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 22/04/2021 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 16 (JOBO) 988 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.7 S / 46.5 E
(NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 15 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 20 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/04/22 AT 12 UTC:
9.5 S / 44.9 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 15 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2021/04/23 AT 00 UTC:
9.4 S / 43.4 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 35 NM
34 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 211823
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/16/20202021
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 16 (JOBO)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 21/04/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 9.8 S / 47.0 E
(NEUF DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUARANTE SEPT DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/4.0/W 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 985 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 335 SO: 220 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 40 NO: 35

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 22/04/2021 06 UTC: 9.7 S / 45.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 155 SO: 150 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 30 SO: 35 NO: 35

24H: 22/04/2021 18 UTC: 9.5 S / 43.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 120 SO: 85 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 20 NO: 100

36H: 23/04/2021 06 UTC: 9.1 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 65
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 35

48H: 23/04/2021 18 UTC: 8.4 S / 41.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 30 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 65

60H: 24/04/2021 06 UTC: 7.8 S / 40.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

72H: 24/04/2021 18 UTC: 7.4 S / 39.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0+;CI=4.0+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE JOBO
S'EST NETTEMENT DEGRADEE. LES ANALYSES MODELES LE SPLUS RECENTES
SUGGERENT LA PRESENCE D'UN CISAILLEMENT MODERE DE NORD-OUEST EN
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE QUI A PERMIS L'INJECTION D'AIR SEC PRES DU COEUR
DE JOBO. LA CONVECTION PROFONDE N'A REPRISE QUE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE
SUD AU COURS DES 2 DERNIERES HEURES, CE QUI SE TRADUIT PAR UNE
CONFIGURATION MAL DEFINIE DE CENTRE NOYE DANS LA MASSE. LES IMAGES
MICRO-ONDES SSMIS DE 1328Z PUIS 1519Z CONFIRMENT UNE PERTE DE
DEFINITION DE LA STRUCTURE INTERNE AVEC UN COEUR DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE BIEN MOINS SOLIDE QUE PRECEDEMMENT. SEUL UN PSEUDO-OEIL
SUBSISTE EN 85GHZ, ENTRE DEUX BANDES DE CONVECTION AU NORD ET AU SUD
DU CENTRE DE CIRCULATION.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, JOBO A REPRIS UN MOUVEMENT EN DIRECTION DE
L'OUEST SUR LA FACE NORD DES HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS SUBTROPICAUX. EN
S'AFFAIBLISSANT UN PEU, LA TEMPETE A RETROUVE UN FLUX DIRECTEUR MIEUX
DEFINI DANS LES COUCHES INFERIEURES DE LA TROPOSPHERE. DEMAIN, JOBO
DEVRAIT SE DIRIGER VERS L'OUEST AVANT UN VIRAGE VERS LE NORD-OUEST
ENSUITE. LA DISPERSION AUTOUR DE CE SCENARIO EST MODEREE. IL SUBSISTE
ENCORE DES DIFFERENCES DE TIMING ENTRE MODELES MAIS GFS ET IFS SONT
DESORMAIS PLUTOT EN BON ACCORD.

AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24H, LE CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST AUX
NIVEAUX MOYENS DEVRAIT CONTINUER DE GENER LE DEVELOPPEMENT DE JOBO.
SON INTENSITE DEVRAIT DONC RESTER PLUS OU MOINS STATIONNAIRE VOIRE
DIMINUER. A PARTIR DE DEMAIN SOIR, UN CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR OUEST
SE MET EN PLACE A TOUT NIVEAUX ET DEVRAIT LANCER UNE PHASE
D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT PLUS FRANCHE, D'AUTANT QUE DE L'AIR TRES SEC EST
PRESENT A PARTIR DE VENDREDI SOIR. LA PETITE TAILLE DU COEUR
DEPRESSIONNAIRE LE RENDANT TRES REACTIF A SON ENVIRONNEMENT, CELA
INDUIT UNE INCERTITUDE PLUS FORTE QUE LA MOYENNE SUR LA PRESENTE
PREVISION D'INTENSITE.

IMPACTS POSSIBLES ATTENDUS SUR LES ILES EXTERIEURES DES SEYCHELLES
(ASTOVE, COSMOLEDO, ALDABRA) :
-PLUIES TRES INTENSES POUVANT EXCEDER LES 200 MM EN 24H.
-VENTS FORTS (DEPENDANT DE LA TRAJECTOIRE EXACTE DU PHENOMENE): DES
CONDITIONS CYCLONIQUES (RAFALES SUPERIEURES A 150 KM/H)
-MER DANGEREUSE: VAGUES DEPASSANT LOCALEMENT LES 6 METRES, SURCOTE
POUVANT ATTEINDRE 30 A 40 CM.
DU FAIT DE LA PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME JOBO, LA ZONE GEOGRAPHIQUE
CONCERNEE PAR DES CONDITIONS TRES PERTURBEES EST TRES LIMITEE, D'OU
UNE FORTE INCERTITUDE SUR LES ZONES IMPACTEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 211823
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/16/20202021
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 16 (JOBO)

2.A POSITION 2021/04/21 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.8 S / 47.0 E
(NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/4.0/W 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 335 SW: 220 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 40 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/04/22 06 UTC: 9.7 S / 45.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 30 SW: 35 NW: 35

24H: 2021/04/22 18 UTC: 9.5 S / 43.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 120 SW: 85 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 20 NW: 100

36H: 2021/04/23 06 UTC: 9.1 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 65
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2021/04/23 18 UTC: 8.4 S / 41.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 30 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 65

60H: 2021/04/24 06 UTC: 7.8 S / 40.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

72H: 2021/04/24 18 UTC: 7.4 S / 39.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0+;CI=4.0+

OVER THE LAST 6 HRS, JOBO'S CLOUD PATTERN CLEARLY DETERIORATED. THE
LAST MODEL ANALYSIS SUGGEST A MODERATE MID-LEVEL NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR
THAT PUSHED DRY AIR CLOSE TO THE TC CORE. DEEP CONVECTION ONLY
TRIGGERED AGAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE IN THE LAST 2 HRS,
PRODUCING AN ILL-DEFINED CDO PATTERN. SSMIS 1328Z AND 1519Z MW IMAGES
CONFIRM THIS DISORGANISATION OF JOBO'S INTERNAL STRUCTURE WITH A FAR
WEAKER CORE THAN ON PREVIOUS IMAGES. ONLY A PSEUDO-EYE REMAINS
VISIBLE ON 85GHZ IMAGERY, BETWEEN TWO CONVECTION BANDS IN THE SOUTH
AND THE NORTH.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, JOBO HAS RESUMED A WESTWARD MOTION ON THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS. AS IT WEAKENED, THE STORM
FOUND A STRONGER STEERING FLOW AGAIN, WITHIN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
TROPOSPHERE. TOMORROW, JOBO SHOULD CONTINUE WESTWARD BEFORE A
NORTH-WESTWARD TURN LATER ON. THE DISPERSION AROUND THIS SCENARIO IS
MODERATE. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN THE AVAILABLE MODELS
BUT GFS AND IFS ARE NOW IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT.

OVER THE NEXT 24H, THE AFOREMENTIONNED NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR AT THE
MID-LEVELS COULD KEEP ON HINDERING JOBO'S DEVELOPMENT. THE INTENSITY
IS THUS EXPECTED TO REMAINS SOMEWHAT STATIONARY OR EVEN DECREASE A
BIT. FROM TOMORROW EVENING, A WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD APPEAR AT MID AND
UPPER LEVELS AND TRIGGER A STRONGER WEAKENING. DRY AIR SHOULD ALSO BE
MORE PRESENT FROM FRIDAY EVENING. JOBO'S SMALL SIZE MAKES IT VERY
SENSIBLE TO ITS ENVIRONMENT, THUS INDUCING A GREATER UNCERTAINTY THAN
USUAL ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST.

POSSIBLE IMPACTS EXPECTED ON THE OUTER ISLANDS OF THE SEYCHELLES
(ASTOVE, COSMOLEDO, ALDABRA) :
-VERY INTENSE RAINFALL THAT COULD EXCEED 200 MM IN 24 HOURS.
-STRONG WINDS (DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM): CYCLONIC
CONDITIONS (GUSTS OVER 150 KM/H) CAN'T BE RULED OUT
-DANGEROUS SEA CONDITIONS: WAVES EXCEEDING 6 METERS LOCALLY, STORM
SURGE REACHING 30 TO 40 CM.
BECAUSE OF JOBO'S SMALL SIZE, THE AREA AFFECTED BY SEVERE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IS VERY NARROW, HENCE HIGH UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THESE
IMPACTS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 211810
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 21/04/2021
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/16 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 21/04/2021 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 16 (JOBO) 985 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.8 S / 47.0 E
(NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/04/22 AT 06 UTC:
9.7 S / 45.3 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 15 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2021/04/22 AT 18 UTC:
9.5 S / 43.8 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 10 NM NW: 55 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 211401 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 21/04/2021
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 007/16 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 21/04/2021 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 16 (JOBO) 985 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.8 S / 47.6 E
(NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
12 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/04/22 AT 00 UTC:
9.8 S / 46.3 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 10 NM SE: 10 NM SW: 10 NM NW: 10 NM

24H, VALID 2021/04/22 AT 12 UTC:
9.7 S / 45.1 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 10 NM SE: 10 NM SW: 10 NM NW: 10 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 211311
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 7/16/20202021
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 16 (JOBO)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 21/04/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 9.8 S / 47.6 E
(NEUF DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUARANTE SEPT DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 985 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SO: 185 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 40 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SO: 20 NO: 20

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 22/04/2021 00 UTC: 9.8 S / 46.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 155 SO: 130 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 45 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SO: 20 NO: 20

24H: 22/04/2021 12 UTC: 9.7 S / 45.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SO: 20 NO: 20

36H: 23/04/2021 00 UTC: 9.5 S / 43.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

48H: 23/04/2021 12 UTC: 9.3 S / 42.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 65
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

60H: 24/04/2021 00 UTC: 8.9 S / 42.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

72H: 24/04/2021 12 UTC: 8.4 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 25/04/2021 12 UTC: 7.2 S / 38.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA BANDE INCURVEE A LAISSEE LA PLACE
A UNE CONFIGURATION EN OEIL ATTEIGNANT SA PLUS BELLE APPARENCE VERS
10Z. LES SOMMETS NUAGEUX SONT NEANMOINS RESTES RELATIVEMENT CHAUD ET
DEPUIS 10Z, LA CONFIGURATION S'EST DEGRADEE AVEC LA DISPARITION DE
CET OEIL. LES DONNEES MICRO-ONDES GMI ET AMSR2 DE LA MI-JOURNEE
MONTRENT QUE LE COEUR INTERNE S'EST CONTRACTE AVEC UN MUR DE L'OEIL
MIEUX DEFINI QUE CE MATIN, RENFORCANT L'IDEE D'UNE INTENSIFICATION
SIGNIFICATIVE. EN ACCORD AVEC LES ANALYSES DVORAK LES PLUS FORTES ET
LES DONNEES MICRO-ONDES, LE STADE DE CYCLONE EST CONSIDERE AVOIR ETE
ATTEINT.

EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE, BIEN QUE JOBO CONTINUE VERS L'OUEST, IL A
NETTEMENT RALENTI EN ACCORD AVEC LA HAUSSE DU NIVEAU DU FLUX
DIRECTEUR LIEE A L'INTENSIFICATION. POUR LA SUITE, IL Y A AVEC UN
ASSEZ BON ACCORD ENTRE MODELES SUR LA PHILOSOPHIE, ALORS QUE LE
SYSTEME SE DEPLACE SUR LA FACE NORD DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE
BASSE TROPOSPHERE. NEANMOINS, IL Y A DE NOMBREUSES DIFFERENCES DANS
LA GESTION DE LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT, DANS UN CONTEXTE DE FLUX
DIRECTEURS FAIBLES ET A CAUSE DE LA DEPENDANCE AVEC L'INTENSITE.LA
PRESENTE PREVISION SE BASE SUR UN SCENARIO MEDIAN MAIS MOINS RAPIDE
QUE LES DERNIERS RUN DU MODELE EUROPEEN. APRES ETRE PASSE A PROXIMITE
DE COSMOLEDO CE MERCREDI, IL DEVRAIT PASSER LA NUIT PROCHAINE OU
DEMAIN MATIN A PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE D'ALDABRA.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTENT FAVORABLES AU DEVELOPPEMENT
DANS LES PROCHAINES 12H AVEC UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE ET UN FAIBLE
CISAILLEMENT. DEMAIN JEUDI, SOUS L'INFLUENCE DU TALWEG PASSANT PLUS
AU SUD, UN CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR OUEST DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT SE
METTRE EN PLACE, AYANT POUR EFFET DE DESTRUCTURER LE PETIT COEUR
CONVECTIF EN Y ADVECTANT DE L'AIR SEC. UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME
EST AINSI PREVU EN DEUXIEME PARTIE DE SEMAINE. LA PETITE TAILLE DU
COEUR DEPRESSIONNAIRE LE RENDANT TRES REACTIF A SON ENVIRONNEMENT,
CELA INDUIT UNE INCERTITUDE PLUS FORTE QUE LA MOYENNE SUR LA PRESENTE
PREVISION D'INTENSITE.

IMPACTS POSSIBLES ATTENDUS SUR LES ILES EXTERIEURES DES SEYCHELLES
(ASTOVE, COSMOLEDO, ALDABRA) :
-PLUIES TRES INTENSES POUVANT EXCEDER LES 200 MM EN 24H.
-VENTS FORTS (DEPENDANT DE LA TRAJECTOIRE EXACTE DU PHENOMENE): DES
CONDITIONS CYCLONIQUES (RAFALES SUPERIEURES A 150 KM/H)
-MER DANGEREUSE: VAGUES DEPASSANT LOCALEMENT LES 6 METRES, SURCOTE
POUVANT ATTEINDRE 30 A 40 CM.
DU FAIT DE LA PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME JOBO, LA ZONE GEOGRAPHIQUE
CONCERNEE PAR DES CONDITIONS TRES PERTURBEES EST TRES LIMITEE, D'OU
UNE FORTE INCERTITUDE SUR LES ZONES IMPACTEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 211311
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/16/20202021
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 16 (JOBO)

2.A POSITION 2021/04/21 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.8 S / 47.6 E
(NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 40 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SW: 20 NW: 20

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/04/22 00 UTC: 9.8 S / 46.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SW: 20 NW: 20

24H: 2021/04/22 12 UTC: 9.7 S / 45.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SW: 20 NW: 20

36H: 2021/04/23 00 UTC: 9.5 S / 43.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

48H: 2021/04/23 12 UTC: 9.3 S / 42.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 65
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2021/04/24 00 UTC: 8.9 S / 42.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

72H: 2021/04/24 12 UTC: 8.4 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/04/25 12 UTC: 7.2 S / 38.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0+

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CURVED BAND LET PLACE TO A QUITE WELL
DEFINED EYE PATTERN PEAKING AT 10Z. BUT CLOUD TOPS REMAINED RATHER
WARM AND SINCE 10Z, THE CLOUD CONFIGURATION DETERIORATE WITH THE
DECAY OF THE EYE. GMI AND AMSR2 AFTERNOON DATA SHOW THAT THE INNER
CORE CONTRACTED IN COMPARISON WITH LAST NIGHT DATA WITH ALSO A BETTER
EYEWALL, SUGGESTING THAT JOBO INTENSIFIED DURING THIS LAPSE OF TIME.
IN AGREEMENT WITH THE STRONGEST DVORAK ANALYSIS AS WELL AS MICROWAVE
DATA, JOBO IS ANALYZED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.


EVEN IF JOBO IS MOVING WESTWARD, IT SLOWED DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY BECAUSE
OF ITS HIGHER STEERING FLOW DUE TO ITS DEEPENING. NEXT THERE IS A
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS FOR THE MAIN PHILOSOPHY OF THE
TRACK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW
TROPOSPHERIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE . HOWVEER THERE IS QUITE A SPREAD
AMONG THE GUIDANCE ON THE MOTION SPEED, POTENIALLY EXPLAINED BY THE
WEAKER STEERING FLOWS AND THE DEPENDANCE OF THE MOTION TO ITS
INTENSITY. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A MEDIAN SCENARIO
SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN LATEST EURO MODELS. AFTER A CLOSE PATH TO
COSMOLEDO TODAY, IT IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR ALDABRA TONIGHT OR
TOMORROW MORNING.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN RELATIVELY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
FOR THE NEXT 12H, WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE AND LOW SHEAR. TOMORROW
THURSDAY AND ONWARDS, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH PASSING
FURTHER SOUTH, WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY SET UP, WHICH WILL
THEN LEAD TO A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE SMALL CONVECTIVE CORE AND DRY
AIR ADVECTION. WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM IS THUS EXPECTED IN THE SECOND
PART OF THE WEEK. THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM'S CORE MAKE IT VERY
RESPONSIVE TO ITS ENVIRONMENT, INDUCING A HIGHER THAN AVERAGE
UNCERTAINTY ON THE PRESENT INTENSITY FORECAST.

POSSIBLE IMPACTS EXPECTED ON THE OUTER ISLANDS OF THE SEYCHELLES
(ASTOVE, COSMOLEDO, ALDABRA) :
-VERY INTENSE RAINFALL THAT COULD EXCEED 200 MM IN 24 HOURS.
-STRONG WINDS (DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM): CYCLONIC
CONDITIONS (GUSTS OVER 150 KM/H) CAN'T BE RULED OUT
-DANGEROUS SEA CONDITIONS: WAVES EXCEEDING 6 METERS LOCALLY, STORM
SURGE REACHING 30 TO 40 CM.
BECAUSE OF JOBO'S SMALL SIZE, THE AREA AFFECTED BY SEVERE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IS VERY NARROW, HENCE HIGH UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THESE
IMPACTS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 211233
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 21/04/2021
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 007/16 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 21/04/2021 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 16 (JOBO) 985 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.8 S / 47.6 E
(NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
12 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/04/22 AT 00 UTC:
9.8 S / 46.3 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 15 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 10 NM SE: 5 NM SW: 5 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2021/04/22 AT 12 UTC:
9.7 S / 45.1 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 10 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 10 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 5 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 210644
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 6/16/20202021
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 16 (JOBO)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 21/04/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 9.8 S / 48.2 E
(NEUF DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUARANTE HUIT DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 992 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SO: 185 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 40 NO: 35

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1012 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 21/04/2021 18 UTC: 9.5 S / 46.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SO: 75 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 65 NO: 65

24H: 22/04/2021 06 UTC: 9.3 S / 45.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SO: 120 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 45 NO: 55

36H: 22/04/2021 18 UTC: 9.2 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SO: 100 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 55

48H: 23/04/2021 06 UTC: 9.1 S / 43.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 75

60H: 23/04/2021 18 UTC: 8.9 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 85
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 65

72H: 24/04/2021 06 UTC: 8.6 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 85

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 25/04/2021 06 UTC: 7.8 S / 38.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION PROFONDE ASSOCIEE A LA
TEMPETE JOBO S'EST NETTEMENT ORGANISEE AUTOUR D'UNE BANDE INCURVE DE
PLUS D'UN DEMI-TOUR AVEC DES SOMMETS FROIDS AUTOUR D'UN POINT CHAUD.
LES MICRO-ONDES CONFIRMENT CE CREUSEMENT AVEC UN OEIL BIEN DEFINI EN
37 ET 89 GHZ (SSMIS 0049 ET 0240Z). PAR AILLEURS, UNE PASSE SMAP ET
SMOS DONNENT RESPECTIVEMENT 54 ET 50KT CE MATIN, EN PLUTOT BON ACCORD
AVEC LES ESTIMATIONS DVORAK. L'INTENSITE EST DONC REHAUSSE A 55KT.

LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST A OUEST-NORD-OUEST SE CONFIRME, AVEC UN
ASSEZ BON ACCORD ENTRE MODELES POUR LES 48 PROCHAINES HEURES. LE
SYSTEME SE DEPLACE SUR LA FACE NORD DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE
BASSE TROPOSPHERE EN RALENTISSANT. APRES ETRE PASSE A PROXIMITE DE
COSMOLEDO CE MERCREDI, IL DEVRAIT PASSER LA NUIT PROCHAINE A
PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE D'ALDABRA. A PARTIR DE JEUDI, L'INCERTITUDE SUR
LA TRAJECTOIRE AUGMENTE AVEC DES FLUX DIRECTEURS DEVENANT PLUS
FAIBLES ET LA TRAJECTOIRE DEPENDANT AUSSI DE L'INTENSITE QUE LE
SYSTEME AURA A CE MOMENT-LA. DES DIFFERENCES DE TIMING APPARAISSENT
NOTAMMENT AVEC LES DERNIERS RUNS EUROPEENS PLUS RAPIDES. LA PRESENTE
PREVISION SE BASE SUR UN SCENARIO MEDIAN MAIS RESTERA A CONFIRMER.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTENT FAVORABLES AU DEVELOPPEMENT
DANS LES PROCHAINES 24H AVEC UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE ET UN FAIBLE
CISAILLEMENT. DANS CE CONTEXTE, JOBO DEVRAIT ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE
CYCLONE TROPICAL DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES. A PARTIR DE LA JOURNEE
DE JEUDI, SOUS L'INFLUENCE DU TALWEG PASSANT PLUS AU SUD, UN
CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR OUEST DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT SE METTRE EN
PLACE, AYANT POUR EFFET DE DESTRUCTURER LE PETIT COEUR CONVECTIF EN Y
ADVECTANT DE L'AIR SEC. UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME EST AINSI PREVU
EN DEUXIEME PARTIE DE SEMAINE. LA PETITE TAILLE DU COEUR
DEPRESSIONNAIRE LE RENDANT TRES REACTIF A SON ENVIRONNEMENT INDUIT
UNE INCERTITUDE PLUS FORTE QUE LA MOYENNE SUR LA PRESENTE PREVISION
D'INTENSITE.

IMPACTS POSSIBLES ATTENDUS SUR LES ILES EXTERIEURES DES SEYCHELLES
(ASTOVE, COSMOLEDO, ALDABRA) :
-PLUIES TRES INTENSES POUVANT EXCEDER LES 200 MM EN 24H.
-VENTS FORTS (DEPENDANT DE LA TRAJECTOIRE EXACTE DU PHENOMENE): DES
CONDITIONS CYCLONIQUES (RAFALES SUPERIEURES A 150 KM/H) NE SONT PAS A
EXCLURE, EN PARTICULIER SUR LE GROUPE ALDABRA LA NUIT PROCHAINE.
-MER DANGEREUSE: VAGUES DEPASSANT LOCALEMENT LES 6 METRES, SURCOTE
POUVANT ATTEINDRE 30 A 40 CM.
DU FAIT DE LA PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME JOBO, LA ZONE GEOGRAPHIQUE
CONCERNEE PAR DES CONDITIONS TRES PERTURBEES EST TRES LIMITEE, D'OU
UNE FORTE INCERTITUDE SUR LES ZONES IMPACTEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 210644
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/16/20202021
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 16 (JOBO)

2.A POSITION 2021/04/21 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.8 S / 48.2 E
(NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 40 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/04/21 18 UTC: 9.5 S / 46.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 65

24H: 2021/04/22 06 UTC: 9.3 S / 45.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 45 NW: 55

36H: 2021/04/22 18 UTC: 9.2 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 55

48H: 2021/04/23 06 UTC: 9.1 S / 43.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 75

60H: 2021/04/23 18 UTC: 8.9 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 65

72H: 2021/04/24 06 UTC: 8.6 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 85

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/04/25 06 UTC: 7.8 S / 38.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5+

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH STORM JOBO
WRAPPED ON A TIGHT CURVED BAND (MORE THAN A HALF TURN). MICROWAVE
DATA CONFIRM THE DEEPENING WITH A DEFINED EYE IN BOTH 37 AND 89 GHZ
(0049 AND 0240Z SSMIS). MOREOVER THIS MORNING SMAP AND SMOS DATA GIVE
RESPECTIVELY 54 AND 50KT I AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK ANALYSIS. INTENSITY
IS RAISED TO 55KT.

THE WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS CONFIRMED, WITH A FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW TROPOSPHERIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WHILE SLOWING DOWN. AFTER A CLOSE PATH TO COSMOLEDO TODAY, IT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR ALDABRA TONIGHT. FROM WEDNESDAY AND THE
FOLLOWING NIGHT WHILE GRADUALLY SLOWING DOWN. FROM THURSDAY ONWARDS,
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TRACK INCREASES WITH STEERING FLOWS BECOMING
WEAKER AND THE TRACK ALSO DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY THAT THE SYSTEM
WILL HAVE AT THAT TIME. SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK SPEED ARE FOUND
IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE WITH THE LATEST EURO MODELS QUICKER. THE
PRESENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A MEDIAN SCENARIO BUT WILL HAVE TO BE
CONFIRMED.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN RELATIVELY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
FOR THE NEXT 24H, WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE AND LOW SHEAR. GIVEN
THIS CONTEXT, JOBO IS EXPECTED TO REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS
OVERNIGHT. BUT THEN, FROM THURSDAY ONWARDS, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE TROUGH PASSING FURTHER SOUTH, WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY
SET UP, WHICH WILL THEN LEAD TO A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE SMALL
CONVECTIVE CORE AND DRY AIR ADVECTION. WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM IS
THUS EXPECTED IN THE SECOND PART OF THE WEEK. THE SMALL SIZE OF THE
SYSTEM'S CORE MAKING IT VERY REACTIVE TO ITS ENVIRONMENT INDUCES A
HIGHER THAN AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY ON THE PRESENT INTENSITY FORECAST.

POSSIBLE IMPACTS EXPECTED ON THE OUTER ISLANDS OF THE SEYCHELLES
(ASTOVE, COSMOLEDO, ALDABRA) :
-VERY INTENSE RAINFALL THAT COULD EXCEED 200 MM IN 24 HOURS.
-STRONG WINDS (DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM): CYCLONIC
CONDITIONS (GUSTS OVER 150 KM/H) CAN'T BE RULED OUT FOR ALDABRA.
-DANGEROUS SEA CONDITIONS: WAVES EXCEEDING 6 METERS LOCALLY, STORM
SURGE REACHING 30 TO 40 CM.
BECAUSE OF JOBO'S SMALL SIZE, THE AREA AFFECTED BY SEVERE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IS VERY NARROW, HENCE HIGH UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THESE
IMPACTS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 210622
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 21/04/2021
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 006/16 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 21/04/2021 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 16 (JOBO) 992 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.8 S / 48.2 E
(NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/04/21 AT 18 UTC:
9.5 S / 46.6 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2021/04/22 AT 06 UTC:
9.3 S / 45.3 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 15 NM SE: 15 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200821ZAPR2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 10.0S 48.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.0S 48.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 9.7S 47.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 9.5S 45.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 9.3S 44.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 9.1S 43.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 8.7S 42.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 8.4S 40.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 8.5S 37.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 9.9S 48.4E.
21APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 539
NM NORTH OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL, RAPIDLY DEVELOPING CYCLONE, WITH A CURVED
BAND OF CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C NEARLY
ENCIRCLING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. A 210052Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWED A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION ABOUT 60 NM IN DIAMETER
WRAPPING AROUND 80% OF THE CIRCULATION, FORMING A WELL-DEFINED EYE-
LIKE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT, PERHAPS
CONSERVATIVELY, BASED ON A 210230Z PGTW FIX OF 3.0. CONFIDENCE IN
THIS ESTIMATE IS LOW DUE TO THE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM. THE LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT HAS CONSISTED OF LIGHT-MODERATE
WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 15-20 KT FOR THE PAST 12
HOURS, BUT EXPANDING CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE
SUGGESTS THAT THIS SHEAR IS DECREASING. JOBO IS BEING STEERED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD BY A BELT OF LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES EQUATORWARD OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS MOTION WILL CARRY JOBO BENEATH AN UPPER-
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY OFFSHORE OF
TANZANIA DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS, WHERE VWS IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE TO 10-15 KTS. COMBINED WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
OF 29C, THIS ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO FAVOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION
IN THE NEAR TERM, TO AROUND 70 KTS AT 24 HOURS, SUPPORTED BY RECENT
HWRF MODEL FORECASTS THAT HAVE ACCURATELY DEPICTED THE COMPACT
NATURE OF THE VORTEX. IN 24-36 HOURS, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE
SUBTROPICAL JET OVER MOZAMBIQUE WILL APPROACH JOBO FROM THE WEST,
INCREASING VWS BACK TO AROUND 20 KTS. THIS SHOULD ARREST THE
INTENSIFICATION TREND, AND THE SMALL CYCLONE, BEING PARTICULARLY
SUSCEPTIBLE TO MODERATE SHEAR, IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BETWEEN 36 AND
72 HOURS. SLOWING OF FORWARD MOTION IS ALSO EXPECTED AS LOW-LEVEL
EASTERLIES BECOME OFFSET BY THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW. AFTER 72
HOURS, THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES AWAY TO THE
SOUTHEAST, POSSIBLY ALLOWING A PERIOD OF LIGHTER SHEAR ONCE AGAIN AS
JOBO APPROACHES THE TANZANIAN COASTLINE. THE FORECAST SHOWS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME REINTENSIFICATION BEFORE LANDFALL JUST AFTER 96
HOURS, FOLLOWED BY DISSIPATION INLAND. CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS LOW, GIVEN THE SUSCEPTIBILITY OF COMPACT CYCLONES TO
QUICK UPS AND DOWNS IN INTENSITY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
210000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z AND 220300Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 200830).//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 210300
WARNING ATCG MIL 29S SIO 210421024604
2021042100 29S JOBO 001 01 285 08 SATL 030
T000 100S 0488E 045 R034 000 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 097S 0473E 060 R050 000 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD
T024 095S 0457E 070 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 000 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 020 NW QD
T036 093S 0447E 070 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 000 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 020 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 020 NW QD
T048 091S 0439E 060 R050 000 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 020 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 020 NW QD
T072 087S 0423E 045 R034 020 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 030 NW QD
T096 084S 0402E 050 R050 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 020 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 030 NW QD
T120 085S 0377E 030
AMP
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 10.0S 48.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.0S 48.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 9.7S 47.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 9.5S 45.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 9.3S 44.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 9.1S 43.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 8.7S 42.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 8.4S 40.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 8.5S 37.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 9.9S 48.4E.
21APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 539
NM NORTH OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 211500Z AND 220300Z.
//
2921041418 104S 782E 15
2921041500 102S 776E 15
2921041506 100S 770E 15
2921041512 97S 766E 15
2921041518 98S 762E 15
2921041600 100S 759E 15
2921041606 100S 747E 15
2921041612 102S 735E 15
2921041618 99S 723E 15
2921041700 98S 702E 15
2921041706 98S 687E 15
2921041712 101S 676E 15
2921041718 105S 666E 15
2921041800 107S 661E 15
2921041806 109S 651E 20
2921041812 112S 642E 20
2921041818 115S 622E 20
2921041900 111S 612E 20
2921041906 105S 586E 25
2921041912 114S 573E 25
2921041918 115S 554E 25
2921042000 111S 537E 25
2921042006 108S 524E 30
2921042012 105S 510E 30
2921042018 102S 496E 35
2921042100 100S 488E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 210024
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 5/16/20202021
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 16 (JOBO)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 21/04/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 35 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 10.0 S / 48.8 E
(DIX DEGRES ZERO SUD ET QUARANTE HUIT DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.0/2.5/D 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 999 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 24 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 165 SO: 185 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 55

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 21/04/2021 12 UTC: 9.7 S / 47.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 35 SO: 55 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 30 SO: 45 NO: 35

24H: 22/04/2021 00 UTC: 9.6 S / 46.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 140 SO: 130 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 30 SO: 45 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 10 SO: 10 NO: 35

36H: 22/04/2021 12 UTC: 9.5 S / 45.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 120 SO: 85 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 35 SO: 55 NO: 55
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 30 SO: 45 NO: 35

48H: 23/04/2021 00 UTC: 9.4 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 10 SO: 30 NO: 35

60H: 23/04/2021 12 UTC: 9.2 S / 42.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SO: 100 NO: 55
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 10 SO: 20 NO: 35

72H: 24/04/2021 00 UTC: 9.0 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 10 SE: 35 SO: 95 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 25/04/2021 00 UTC: 8.4 S / 40.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

120H: 26/04/2021 00 UTC: 7.8 S / 38.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.0;CI=2.5+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION ASSOCIEE A LA TEMPETE
JOBO A CONNU DES FLUCTUATIONS : LA ZONE DE FORTE CONVECTION A SOMMETS
FROIDS INITIALEMENT PRESENTE VERS 18Z A LAISSE PLACE A DES
DEVELOPPEMENTS CONVECTIFS PLUS DISPARATES EN PERIPHERIE D'UN CENTRE
DE SURFACE QUI RESTE MASQUE. L'OUTFLOW DE CIRRUS S'EST AMELIORE,
MONTRANT UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE. EN L'ABSENCE DE NOUVELLES
DONNEES SCATTEROMETRIQUES OU MICRO-ONDES, L'INTENSITE EST PAR DEFAUT
MAINTENUE A 40 KT. CETTE ESTIMATION D'INTENSITE PRESENTE DONC UNE
INCERTITUDE SIGNIFICATIVE : IL FAUDRA ATTENDRE DE NOUVELLES DONNEES
POUR L'AJUSTER.

LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST A OUEST-NORD-OUEST SE CONFIRME, AVEC UN
ASSEZ BON ACCORD ENTRE MODELES POUR LES 48 PROCHAINES HEURES. LE
SYSTEME SE DEPLACE SUR LA FACE NORD DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE
BASSE TROPOSPHERE ET DEVRAIT PASSER A PROXIMITE DU SUD DES ILES
EXTERIEURES DES SEYCHELLES EN JOURNEE DE MERCREDI ET NUIT SUIVANTE
TOUT EN RALENTISSANT LEGEREMENT. A PARTIR DE JEUDI, L'INCERTITUDE SUR
LA TRAJECTOIRE AUGMENTE AVEC DES FLUX DIRECTEURS DEVENANT PLUS
FAIBLES ET LA TRAJECTOIRE DEPENDANT AUSSI DE L'INTENSITE QUE LE
SYSTEME AURA A CE MOMENT-LA. LA PRESENTE PREVISION SE BASE SUR UN
SCENARIO MEDIAN MAIS RESTERA A CONFIRMER.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTENT FAVORABLES AU DEVELOPPEMENT
A COURT TERME : LA CONVERGENCE DE BASSES COUCHES RESTE TRES BONNE
COTE POLAIRE JUSQU'EN FIN DE SEMAINE, TANDIS QUE LA CONVERGENCE COTE
EQUATORIAL RESTE FAIBLE. EN ALTITUDE, LE CISAILLEMENT PROFOND EST EN
BAISSE ET NE SEMBLE PAS TROP AFFECTER LE DEVELOPPEMENT DU SYSTEME. IL
RESTERA FAIBLE JUSQU'A JEUDI MATIN, DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT RESTANT
SUFFISAMMENT HUMIDE A PROXIMITE DU SYSTEME. LA DIVERGENCE DE HAUTE
TROPOSPHERE EST FAVORABLE ET SE RENFORCERA MEME MERCREDI SOIR EN
MARGE LOINTAINE D'UN TALWEG SUBTROPICAL CIRCULANT PLUS AU SUD SUR LE
CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE. CELA DEVRAIT PERMETTRE UNE INTENSIFICATION DU
SYSTEME PROBABLEMENT JUSQU'AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL D'ICI LA NUIT
DE MERCREDI A JEUDI. MAIS ENSUITE, A PARTIR DE LA JOURNEE DE JEUDI,
SOUS L'INFLUENCE DU TALWEG PASSANT PLUS AU SUD, UN CISAILLEMENT DE
NORD-OUEST DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT SE METTRE EN PLACE, AYANT POUR
EFFET DE DESTRUCTURER LE COEUR CONVECTIF EN Y ADVECTANT DE L'AIR SEC.
UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME EST AINSI PREVU EN DEUXIEME PARTIE DE
SEMAINE. LA PETITE TAILLE DU COEUR DEPRESSIONNAIRE LE RENDANT TRES
REACTIF A SON ENVIRONNEMENT INDUIT UNE INCERTITUDE PLUS FORTE QUE LA
MOYENNE SUR LA PRESENTE PREVISION D'INTENSITE.

IMPACTS POSSIBLES ATTENDUS SUR LES ILES EXTERIEURES DES SEYCHELLES
(ASTOVE, COSMOLEDO, ALDABRA) :
-PLUIES TRES INTENSES POUVANT EXCEDER LES 150 A 200 MM EN 24H.
-VENTS FORTS (DEPENDANT DE LA TRAJECTOIRE EXACTE DU PHENOMENE): DES
CONDITIONS CYCLONIQUES (RAFALES SUPERIEURES A 150 KM/H) NE SONT PAS A
EXCLURE, EN PARTICULIER SUR LE GROUPE ALDABRA DANS LA SOIREE DE
MERCREDI ET LA NUIT SUIVANTE.
-MER DANGEREUSE: VAGUES DEPASSANT LOCALEMENT LES 5 METRES, SURCOTE
POUVANT ATTEINDRE 30 A 40 CM.
DU FAIT DE LA PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME JOBO, LA ZONE GEOGRAPHIQUE
CONCERNEE PAR DES CONDITIONS TRES PERTURBEES EST TRES LIMITEE, D'OU
UNE FORTE INCERTITUDE SUR LES ZONES IMPACTEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 210024
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/16/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 16 (JOBO)

2.A POSITION 2021/04/21 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 35 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.0 S / 48.8 E
(TEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 24 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 165 SW: 185 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/04/21 12 UTC: 9.7 S / 47.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 35 SW: 55 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 30 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2021/04/22 00 UTC: 9.6 S / 46.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 30 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 10 SW: 10 NW: 35

36H: 2021/04/22 12 UTC: 9.5 S / 45.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 120 SW: 85 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 35 SW: 55 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 30 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2021/04/23 00 UTC: 9.4 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 10 SW: 30 NW: 35

60H: 2021/04/23 12 UTC: 9.2 S / 42.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 100 NW: 55
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 10 SW: 20 NW: 35

72H: 2021/04/24 00 UTC: 9.0 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 10 SE: 35 SW: 95 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/04/25 00 UTC: 8.4 S / 40.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

120H: 2021/04/26 00 UTC: 7.8 S / 38.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.0;CI=2.5+

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH STORM JOBO HAS
BEEN FLUCTUATING : THE STRONG CONVECTIVE AREA WITH COLD CLOUD TOPS
INITIALLY PRESENT AROUND 18Z HAS GIVEN WAY TO MORE DISPARATE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENTS AROUND A SURFACE CENTER THAT REMAINS HIDDEN.
THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED, SHOWING A GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. IN
THE ABSENCE OF NEW SCATTEROMETRIC OR MICROWAVE DATA, THE INTENSITY IS
MAINTAINED AT 40 KT. THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE HAS A SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY: WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR NEW DATA TO ADJUST IT.

THE WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS CONFIRMED, WITH A FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW TROPOSPHERIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AND SHOULD PASS NEAR THE SOUTH OF THE OUTER ISLANDS OF THE SEYCHELLES
DURING WEDNESDAY AND THE FOLLOWING NIGHT WHILE GRADUALLY SLOWING
DOWN. FROM THURSDAY ONWARDS, UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TRACK INCREASES
WITH STEERING FLOWS BECOMING WEAKER AND THE TRACK ALSO DEPENDING ON
THE INTENSITY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE AT THAT TIME. THE PRESENT
FORECAST IS BASED ON A MEDIAN SCENARIO BUT WILL HAVE TO BE CONFIRMED.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN RELATIVELY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
IN THE SHORT RUN : POLEWARD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS VERY GOOD
UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK, WHILE EQUATORWARD CONVERGENCE REMAINS
WEAK. ALOFT, DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS DECREASING AND DOES NOT SEEM TO
AFFECT TOO MUCH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. IT WILL REMAIN WEAK
UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING, IN AN ENVIRONMENT REMAINING SUFFICIENTLY
MOIST NEAR THE SYSTEM. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC DIVERGENCE IS FAVORABLE
AND WILL EVEN STRENGTHEN ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A SUBTROPICAL
TROUGH MOVING IN FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM PROBABLY UNTIL THE STAGE
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY. BUT THEN, FROM
THURSDAY ONWARDS, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH PASSING FURTHER
SOUTH, NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY SET UP, WHICH WILL
LEAD TO GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTIVE CORE AND DRY AIR
ADVECTION. WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM IS THUS EXPECTED IN THE SECOND
PART OF THE WEEK. THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM'S CORE MAKING IT VERY
REACTIVE TO ITS ENVIRONMENT INDUCES A HIGHER THAN AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY
ON THE PRESENT INTENSITY FORECAST.

POSSIBLE IMPACTS EXPECTED ON THE OUTER ISLANDS OF THE SEYCHELLES
(ASTOVE, COSMOLEDO, ALDABRA) :
-VERY INTENSE RAINFALL THAT COULD EXCEED 150 TO 200 MM IN 24 HOURS.
-STRONG WINDS (DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM): CYCLONIC
CONDITIONS (GUSTS OVER 150 KM/H) CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
-DANGEROUS SEA CONDITIONS: WAVES EXCEEDING 5 METERS LOCALLY, STORM
SURGE REACHING 30 TO 40 CM.
BECAUSE OF JOBO'S SMALL SIZE, THE AREA AFFECTED BY SEVERE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IS VERY NARROW, HENCE HIGH UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THESE
IMPACTS.=

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Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 210005
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 21/04/2021
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 005/16 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 21/04/2021 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 16 (JOBO) 999 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 35 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.0 S / 48.8 E
(TEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 40
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/04/21 AT 12 UTC:
9.7 S / 47.4 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 15 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2021/04/22 AT 00 UTC:
9.6 S / 46.2 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 15 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 10 NM SE: 5 NM SW: 5 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

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