Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for IMAN-21
Off-shore

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2021-03-08 12:12


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 081208
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/03/2021
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 015/14 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 08/03/2021 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14 (EX-IMAN) 996 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.5 S / 62.5 E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 16 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/03/09 AT 00 UTC:
28.6 S / 63.2 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 40 NM
34 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2021/03/09 AT 12 UTC:
29.8 S / 63.7 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
LAST WARNING FOR THIS SYSTEM.=

>

2021-03-08 08:13


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (IMAN) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (IMAN) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 27.0S 61.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 29 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.0S 61.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 29.3S 63.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 27.6S 61.9E.
08MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (IMAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 469
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 29 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z
IS 20 FEET.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (HABANA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2021-03-08 08:09


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 080900
WARNING ATCG MIL 25S SIO 210308073128
2021030806 25S IMAN 003 02 135 29 SATL 020
T000 270S 0613E 045 R034 100 NE QD 065 SE QD 045 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 293S 0637E 045 R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (IMAN) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (IMAN) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 27.0S 61.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 29 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.0S 61.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 29.3S 63.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 27.6S 61.9E.
08MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (IMAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 469
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 29 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z
IS 20 FEET.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2521030312 174S 386E 15
2521030318 175S 395E 15
2521030400 174S 404E 15
2521030406 172S 408E 15
2521030412 171S 410E 25
2521030418 171S 414E 25
2521030500 171S 425E 25
2521030506 174S 434E 25
2521030512 181S 447E 25
2521030518 187S 460E 25
2521030600 194S 481E 25
2521030606 198S 492E 25
2521030612 206S 506E 25
2521030618 217S 528E 30
2521030700 222S 538E 30
2521030706 228S 550E 30
2521030712 234S 562E 40
2521030718 244S 580E 45
2521030800 249S 590E 45
2521030806 270S 613E 45
NNNN

>

2021-03-08 07:38


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 080722
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 16/14/20202021
1.A DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE 14 (IMAN)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 08/03/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 26.5 S / 61.0 E
(VINGT SIX DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE UN DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 16 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 996 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 95 NO: 95

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 08/03/2021 18 UTC: 27.7 S / 62.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 195 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SO: 140 NO: 95

24H: 09/03/2021 06 UTC: 29.1 S / 63.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 35

36H: 09/03/2021 18 UTC: 30.5 S / 63.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 55

48H: 10/03/2021 06 UTC: 31.5 S / 64.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 55

60H: 10/03/2021 18 UTC: 32.2 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

72H: 11/03/2021 06 UTC: 32.9 S / 64.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LES IMAGES SATELLITE ONT CLAIREMENT
MONTRE LA HAUSSE DES EFFETS DU CISAILLEMENT SUR IMAN, PAR LA PRESENCE
D'UN ARC DE CIRRUS DE CISAILLEEMENT AINSI QUE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA
CONVECTION DEPORTEE VERS LE SUD-EST. UNE PASSE ASCAT A AUSSI MONTRE
UNE CIRCULATION DEVENANT MOINS DEFINIE ET PLUS ALLONGEE, CE QUI
CONFIRME LE CARACTERE POST-TROPICAL DE IMAN.

LE SYSTEME CONTINUE SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-EST PUIS SUD-SUD-EST A
L'AVANT DU TALWEG QUI CIRCULE PLUS AU SUD ET QUI DEVRAIT CAPTURER
IMAN. A PARTIR DE MARDI ET SURTOUT MERCREDI, IMAN VA ETRE RALENTI
PUIS BLOQUE PAR L'ARRIVEE D'UN NOUVEL ANTICYCLONE PAR L'OUEST, LE
LAISSANT AU STADE DE DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE A ECHEANCE DE JEUDI.

L'INTENSITE ESTIMEE A 40KT A 0600Z DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR POUR LA
JOURNEE GRACE AUX PROCESSUS D'INTERACTION BAROCLINE. ENSUITE, LE
SYSTEME VA PROGRESSIVEMENT FAIBLIR.

IMAN NE PRESENTE PLUS DE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

2021-03-08 07:38


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 080722
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/14/20202021
1.A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14 (IMAN)

2.A POSITION 2021/03/08 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.5 S / 61.0 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 16 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 95

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/08 18 UTC: 27.7 S / 62.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 195 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 95

24H: 2021/03/09 06 UTC: 29.1 S / 63.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 35

36H: 2021/03/09 18 UTC: 30.5 S / 63.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 55

48H: 2021/03/10 06 UTC: 31.5 S / 64.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 55

60H: 2021/03/10 18 UTC: 32.2 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

72H: 2021/03/11 06 UTC: 32.9 S / 64.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, SATELLITE IMAGES HAVE INCREASINGLY SHOWN THE
EFFECTS OF WIND SHEAR ON IMAN, WITH THE PRESENCE OF A CIRRUS ARC AS
WELL AS THE WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION WHICH IS EXPELLED FAR TO THE
SOUTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM. AN ASCAT PASS ALSO SHOWED A LOWER
CIRCULATION BECOMING LESS DEFINED AND MORE ELONGATED, CONFIRMING THE
POST-TROPICAL STATUS OF IMAN.

THE SYSTEM KEEPS HEADING ON ITS SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH THAT SHOULD CAPTURE IMAN. FROM TUESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY, IMAN WILL BE SLOWED DOWN AND THEN BLOCKED BY
THE ARRIVAL OF A NEW HIGH PRESSURE AREA FROM THE WEST, LEAVING IT AT
THE STAGE OF RESIDUAL LOW BY THURSDAY.

THE ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF 40KT AT 0600Z SHOULD BE MAINTAINED FOR THE
DAY THANKS TO THE BAROCLINIC INTERACTION PROCESSES. THEN, THE SYSTEM
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN.

IMAN NO LONGER POSES A THREAT TO INHABITED LANDS.=

>

2021-03-08 06:31


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 080629
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/03/2021
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/14 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 08/03/2021 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14 (IMAN) 996 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.5 S / 61.0 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 16 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/03/08 AT 18 UTC:
27.7 S / 62.1 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 50 NM

24H, VALID 2021/03/09 AT 06 UTC:
29.1 S / 63.1 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2021-03-08 01:13


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 080110
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/14/20202021
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 14 (IMAN)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 08/03/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 24.9 S / 59.3 E
(VINGT QUATRE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET CINQUANTE NEUF DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 996 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SO: 185 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SO: 110 NO: 95

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 08/03/2021 12 UTC: 26.9 S / 61.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 130 SO: 150 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SO: 85 NO: 65

24H: 09/03/2021 00 UTC: 29.2 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 30 SO: 85 NO: 65

36H: 09/03/2021 12 UTC: 31.3 S / 63.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 195 SO: 100 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SO: 75 NO: 65

48H: 10/03/2021 00 UTC: 32.6 S / 64.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 110 NO: 55

60H: 10/03/2021 12 UTC: 33.1 S / 64.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

72H: 11/03/2021 00 UTC: 33.5 S / 64.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5+

LA BANDE CONVECTIVE DANS LE SECTEUR NORD-EST PEUT ETRE RATTACHEE A
IMAN ET DEFINIR AINSI UNE CONFIGURATION EN BANDE INCURVE. DANS CETTE
CONFIGURATION, UNE ANALYSE DVORAK DE 2.5+ EST POSSIBLE LAISSANT UNE
ESTIMATION DE 35KT COMME VALIDEE PAR LA PASSE ASCAT DE 1818UTC, AVEC
LOCALEMENT DES VALEURS A 40KT. LA STRUCTURE DES VENTS MONTRENT TOUT
DE MEME UNE STRUCTURE QUI CONTINUE DE S'ALLONGER SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE
LA BAROCLINIE DE PLUS EN PLUS PRESENTE. LE CARACTERE POST-TROPICAL DE
IMAN RISQUE D'ETRE PREDOMINANT LORS DU PROCHAIN RESEAU.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT POUR CE QUI EST DE LA PREVISION CHOISIE PAR LE
CMRS. LE SYSTEME CONTINUE SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-EST A L'AVANT DU
TALWEG QUI CIRCULE PLUS AU SUD ET QUI DEVRAIT CAPTURE IMAN L'EVACUANT
AU SUD DE 25S. APRES UNE TRAJECTOIRE ORIENTEE PLUS SUD A PARTIR DE
MARDI, IMAN VA ETRE RALENTI PUIS BLOQUE PAR L'ARRIVEE D'UN NOUVEL
ANTICYCLONE PAR L'OUEST, LE LAISSANT AU STADE DE DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE A ECHEANCE DE JEUDI.

LA STRUCTURE POST-TROPICALE EST DE PLUS EN PLUS PRESENTE SOUS L'EFFET
DU CISAILLEMENT DE VENT, DANS UN CONTEXTE BAROCLINE DE PLUS EN PLUS
PREDOMINANT. PAR INTERACTION AVEC LE TALWEG D'ALTITUDE, IMAN POURRAIT
MAINTENIR VOIRE INTENSIFIER CES VENTS AU SEUIL DE 40/45KT, AU COURS
DES PROCHAINES 12/18 HEURES. PAR LA SUITE SOUS L'EFFET DU
CISAILLEMENT ET DE L'AIR SEC, IMAN VA FAIBLIR GRADUELLEMENT AU SEUIL
DE DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE.

IMAN NE PRESENTE PLUS DE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES DES
MASCAREIGNES.=

>

2021-03-08 01:13


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 080110
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/14/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 14 (IMAN)

2.A POSITION 2021/03/08 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.9 S / 59.3 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SW: 110 NW: 95

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/08 12 UTC: 26.9 S / 61.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 85 NW: 65

24H: 2021/03/09 00 UTC: 29.2 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 30 SW: 85 NW: 65

36H: 2021/03/09 12 UTC: 31.3 S / 63.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 195 SW: 100 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 75 NW: 65

48H: 2021/03/10 00 UTC: 32.6 S / 64.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 110 NW: 55

60H: 2021/03/10 12 UTC: 33.1 S / 64.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

72H: 2021/03/11 00 UTC: 33.5 S / 64.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+

THE CONVECTIVE BAND IN THE NORTHEAST SECTOR CAN BE CONNECTED TO THE
IMAN AND THUS DEFINE A CURVED BAND PATTERN. IN THIS CONFIGURATION, A
2.5+ DVORAK ANALYSIS IS POSSIBLE LEAVING AN ESTIMATE OF 35KT AS
VALIDATED BY THE 1818UTC ASCAT SWATH, LOCALLY 40KT. THE WIND
STRUCTURE STILL SHOWS A STRUCTURE THAT CONTINUES TO LENGTHEN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE INCREASING BAROCLINICITY. THE POST-TROPICAL
CHARACTER OF IMAN IS LIKELY TO BE PREDOMINANT IN THE NEXT TIME.

NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST CHOSEN BY THE RSMC. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES
ITS TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST IN FRONT OF THE TROUGH THAT RUNS
FURTHER SOUTH AND WHICH SHOULD CAPTURE IMAN EVACUATING IT SOUTH OF
25S. AFTER A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK FROM TUESDAY, IT WILL BE SLOWED
DOWN AND THEN BLOCKED BY THE ARRIVAL OF A NEW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
WEST, LEAVING IT IN A REMNANT LOW BY THURSDAY.

THE POST-TROPICAL STRUCTURE IS MORE AND MORE PRESENT UNDER THE EFFECT
OF WIND SHEAR, IN AN INCREASINGLY PREDOMINANT BAROCLINIC CONTEXT. BY
INTERACTION WITH THE HIGH ALTITUDE TROUGH, IMAN COULD MAINTAIN OR
EVEN INTENSIFY THESE WINDS AT THE THRESHOLD OF 40/45KT, DURING THE
NEXT 12/18 HOURS. THEREAFTER UNDER THE EFFECT OF WINDSHEAR AND DRY
AIR, IMAN WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AT THE THRESHOLD OF REMNANT LOW.

AS OF TONIGHT, IMAN NO LONGER POSES A MENACE TO THE INHABITED LANDS
OF THE MASCARENE ISLANDS.=

>

2021-03-08 00:09


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 080007
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/03/2021
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/14 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 08/03/2021 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 14 (IMAN) 996 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.9 S / 59.3 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 240 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/03/08 AT 12 UTC:
26.9 S / 61.4 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 40 NM
34 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2021/03/09 AT 00 UTC:
29.2 S / 63.0 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 40 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 15 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2021-03-07 21:24


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 072100
WARNING ATCG MIL 25S SIO 210307203004
2021030718 25S IMAN 001 02 120 19 SATL 040
T000 244S 0580E 045 R034 085 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 257S 0600E 040 R034 115 NE QD 105 SE QD 095 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 273S 0617E 035 R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 291S 0631E 030
AMP
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (IMAN) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (IMAN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 24.4S 58.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.4S 58.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 25.7S 60.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 27.3S 61.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 29.1S 63.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 24.7S 58.5E.
07MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (IMAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 278
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 080900Z AND 082100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2521030312 174S 386E 15
2521030318 175S 395E 15
2521030400 174S 404E 15
2521030406 172S 408E 15
2521030412 171S 410E 25
2521030418 171S 414E 25
2521030500 171S 425E 25
2521030506 174S 434E 25
2521030512 181S 447E 25
2521030518 187S 460E 25
2521030600 194S 481E 25
2521030606 198S 492E 25
2521030612 206S 506E 25
2521030618 217S 528E 30
2521030700 222S 538E 30
2521030706 228S 550E 30
2521030712 234S 562E 40
2521030718 244S 580E 45
NNNN

>

2021-03-07 21:23


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (IMAN) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (IMAN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 24.4S 58.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.4S 58.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 25.7S 60.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 27.3S 61.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 29.1S 63.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 24.7S 58.5E.
07MAR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (IMAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 278 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT
POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON A 071724Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS. TC
25S HAS CONSOLIDATED AND INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS WHILE
TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING TO THE NORTHEAST AND AN APPROACHING, DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO
THE SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION AS THE APPROACHING TROUGH OVERTAKES THE SYSTEM. WHILE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS STRONG AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE AT AROUND 27C, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS VERY HIGH (GREATER
THAN 30 KNOTS). THE CONTINUED IMPACT OF STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND PASSAGE OVER COOL WATER ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH NO OFFSETTING BAROCLINIC
SUPPORT FROM INTERACTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT REGARDING THE FORECAST
TRACK, WHICH IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z AND 082100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S
(HABANA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 062230).//
NNNN

>

2021-03-07 18:50


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 071841
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/14/20202021
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 14 (IMAN)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 07/03/2021 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 24.3 S / 57.9 E
(VINGT QUATRE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET CINQUANTE SEPT DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 15 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.0/2.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 997 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SO: 185 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 150 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 08/03/2021 06 UTC: 26.2 S / 60.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 205 SO: 165 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 35

24H: 08/03/2021 18 UTC: 28.1 S / 62.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 140 SO: 100 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 95 NO: 45

36H: 09/03/2021 06 UTC: 30.5 S / 63.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 140 SO: 165 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SO: 150 NO: 55

48H: 09/03/2021 18 UTC: 32.0 S / 64.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 140 SO: 95 NO: 215

60H: 10/03/2021 06 UTC: 32.9 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

72H: 10/03/2021 18 UTC: 33.2 S / 64.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.0+ CI=2.5+

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE A PERDU
SA STRUCTURE EN BANDE INCURVEE ET EVOLUE EN CENTRE NOYE DANS LA MASSE
AU REGARD DES IMAGES INFRA-ROUGES. LES CONTRAINTES DVORAK LAISSENT
CEPENDANT ENCORE UNE POSSIBILITE D'ANALYSE AU SEUIL DE TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE, VOIRE DEPRESSION TROPICALE. CEPENDANT IMAN PERD DE
PLUS EN PLUS SA STRUCTURE PUREMENT TROPICALE ET C'EST LA PASSE ASCAT
DE 1608UTC QUI PERMET DE DEFINIR DES VENTS DE L'ORDRE DE 35KT, AVEC
UNE STRUCTURE QUI S'ALLONGE.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT POUR CE QUI EST DE LA PREVISION CHOISIE PAR LE
CMRS. LE SYSTEME CONTINUE SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-EST A L'AVANT DU
TALWEG QUI CIRCULE PLUS AU SUD ET QUI DEVRAIT CAPTURE IMAN L'EVACUANT
AU SUD DE 25S. APRES UNE TRAJECTOIRE ORIENTEE PLUS SUD A PARTIR DE
MARDI, IMAN VA ETRE RALENTI PUIS BLOQUE PAR L'ARRIVEE D'UN NOUVEL
ANTICYCLONE PAR L'OUEST, LE LAISSANT AU STADE DE DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE A ECHEANCE DE JEUDI.

LA STRUCTURE PURUMENT TROPICALE DE IMAN COMMENCE A DISPARAITRE ET
SOUS L'EFFET DU CISAILLEMENT DE VENT, DANS UN CONTEXTE BAROCLINE
PREDOMINANT, IMAN EVOLUE EN SYSTEME POST-TROPICAL. PAR INTERACTION
AVEC LE TALWEG D'ALTITUDE, IMAN POURRAIT MAINTENIR VOIRE INTENSIFIER
CES VENTS AU SEUIL DE 40/45KT, AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 12/18 HEURES.
PAR LA SUITE SOUS L'EFFET DU CISAILLEMENT ET DE L'AIR SEC, IMAN VA
FAIBLIR GRADUELLEMENT AU SEUIL DE DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE.

A PARTIR DE CE SOIR, IMAN NE PRESENTE PLUS DE MENACE POUR LES TERRES
HABITEES DES MASCAREIGNES.=

>

2021-03-07 18:50


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 071841
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/14/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 14 (IMAN)

2.A POSITION 2021/03/07 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.3 S / 57.9 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 150 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/08 06 UTC: 26.2 S / 60.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 35

24H: 2021/03/08 18 UTC: 28.1 S / 62.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 140 SW: 100 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 45

36H: 2021/03/09 06 UTC: 30.5 S / 63.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 140 SW: 165 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 55

48H: 2021/03/09 18 UTC: 32.0 S / 64.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 140 SW: 95 NW: 215

60H: 2021/03/10 06 UTC: 32.9 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

72H: 2021/03/10 18 UTC: 33.2 S / 64.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.0+ CI=2.5+

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE CLOUD CONFIGURATION HAS LOST ITS
CURVED BAND STRUCTURE AND EVOLVES INTO A CDO PATTERN AS SEEN IN THE
INFRA-RED IMAGES. HOWEVER, DVORAK CONSTRAINTS STILL LEAVE A
POSSIBILITY OF ANALYSIS AT THE THRESHOLD OF MODERATE TROPICAL STORMS,
OR EVEN TROPICAL DEPRESSION. HOWEVER IMAN LOSES MORE AND MORE ITS
PURELY TROPICAL STRUCTURE AND IT IS THE 1608UTC ASCENT PASS THAT
ALLOWS TO DEFINE WINDS OF THE ORDER OF 35KT, WITH A MORE ELONGATED
STRUCTURE.

NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST CHOSEN BY THE RSMC. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES
ITS TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST IN FRONT OF THE TROUGH THAT RUNS
FURTHER SOUTH AND WHICH SHOULD CAPTURE IMAN EVACUATING IT SOUTH OF
25S. AFTER A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK FROM TUESDAY, IT WILL BE SLOWED
DOWN AND THEN BLOCKED BY THE ARRIVAL OF A NEW HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
WEST, LEAVING IT IN A REMNANT LOW BY THURSDAY.

THE PURE TROPICAL STRUCTURE OF IMAN BEGINS TO DISAPPEAR AND UNDER THE
EFFECT OF WIND SHEAR, IN A PREDOMINANTLY BAROCLINIC CONTEXT, IMAN
EVOLVES INTO A POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM. BY INTERACTION WITH THE HIGH
ALTITUDE TROUGH, IMAN COULD MAINTAIN OR EVEN INTENSIFY THESE WINDS AT
THE THRESHOLD OF 40/45KT, DURING THE NEXT 12/18 HOURS. THEREAFTER
UNDER THE EFFECT OF WINDSHEAR AND DRY AIR, IMAN WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AT THE THRESHOLD OF REMNANT LOW.

AS OF TONIGHT, IMAN NO LONGER POSES A MENACE TO THE INHABITED LANDS
OF THE MASCARENE ISLANDS.=

>

2021-03-07 18:03


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 071757
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/03/2021
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/14 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 07/03/2021 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 14 (IMAN) 997 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.3 S / 57.9 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 15 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 50
NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2021/03/08 AT 06 UTC:
26.2 S / 60.3 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2021/03/08 AT 18 UTC:
28.1 S / 62.2 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>