Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for TWENTY-21
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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2021-02-10 14:51


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 101500
WARNING ATCG MIL 20P SWP 210210131238
2021021012 20P TWENTY 003 01 160 18 SATL 060
T000 284S 1767W 040 R034 200 NE QD 165 SE QD 120 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 318S 1753W 035 R034 200 NE QD 165 SE QD 120 SW QD 065 NW QD
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TWENTY) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TWENTY) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 28.4S 176.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.4S 176.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 31.8S 175.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 29.2S 176.4W.
10FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TWENTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 671
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS MODERATE CONVE
CTION FLARING TO THE SOUTH OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT (1
01007Z) ASCAT-C SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED AN ELONGATED LLCC, WITH PATCHES OF 40 KNOT WINDS TO THE
EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO BOTH THE INITIAL POSITION AND INITIAL INT
ENSITY. THE SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN
A STR TO THE EAST AND A STRONG MID-LATITUDE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST. TC 20P IS BECOMING INC
REASINGLY EXTRATROPICAL AS IT MOVES OVER COOL (<24C) WATERS AND MOVES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STR
ONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH, AND EMBEDDED IN THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES. ANALYSIS OF THE 1000-500M
B THICKNESS DATA INDICATES WEAK, BUT INCREASING THERMAL ADVECTION, LENDING FURTHER SUPPORT TO THE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SCENARIO. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WIT
HIN TWELVE HOURS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TH
E JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z
IS 17 FEET.//
2021020618 133S1774E 15
2021020700 136S1775E 15
2021020706 139S1779E 15
2021020712 142S1783E 15
2021020718 147S1787E 15
2021020800 151S1791E 20
2021020806 159S1795E 20
2021020812 173S1799E 25
2021020818 185S1800W 30
2021020900 193S1798W 30
2021020906 201S1793W 30
2021020912 218S1786W 30
2021020918 235S1779W 35
2021021000 251S1777W 45
2021021006 267S1774W 40
2021021012 284S1767W 40

>

2021-02-10 14:51


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TWENTY) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TWENTY) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 28.4S 176.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.4S 176.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 31.8S 175.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 29.2S 176.4W.
10FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TWENTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 671
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS MODERATE CONVECTION FLARING TO THE SOUTH OF THE
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT
(101007Z) ASCAT-C SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED AN ELONGATED LLCC, WITH
PATCHES OF 40 KNOT WINDS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER, LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO BOTH THE INITIAL POSITION AND INITIAL INTENSITY.
THE SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN A STR TO THE EAST AND A STRONG MID-LATITUDE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST. TC 20P IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
EXTRATROPICAL AS IT MOVES OVER COOL (<24C) WATERS AND MOVES UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH, AND EMBEDDED IN THE STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES. ANALYSIS OF THE 1000-500MB THICKNESS DATA
INDICATES WEAK, BUT INCREASING THERMAL ADVECTION, LENDING FURTHER
SUPPORT TO THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SCENARIO. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN TWELVE HOURS.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z
IS 17 FEET.//
NNNN

>

2021-02-10 07:52


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 100900
WARNING ATCG MIL 20P SWP 210210065655
2021021006 20P TWENTY 002 01 170 16 SATL 040
T000 267S 1774W 040 R034 165 NE QD 135 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 299S 1764W 040 R034 170 NE QD 160 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 331S 1747W 035 R034 170 NE QD 160 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 361S 1723W 030
AMP
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TWENTY) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TWENTY) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 26.7S 177.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.7S 177.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 29.9S 176.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 33.1S 174.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 36.1S 172.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 27.5S 177.1W.
10FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TWENTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 566
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A WELL DEFINED AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH MODERATE CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE OVERALL DEPICTION IN THE MSI IS INCREASINGLY EXTRATROPICAL, WITH THE COMMA-SHAPED CONVECTIVE ENVELOPE NOW POLEWARD AND EASTWARD OF THE LLCC. A TIMELY 100600Z GMI 36GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH A WELL-DEFINED LOW EMISSIVITY REGION AND LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES LENT HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KNOTS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A BLEND OF A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS) FROM PGTW, AND AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KTS), AS WELL AS AN EXTRAPOLATION OF 100116Z AMSR2 WINDSPEED ANALYSIS WHICH SHOWED 40-50KT WINDS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT, WITH 35-40KT WINDS ELSEWHERE.
TC 20P IS MOVING RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD ALONG TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STR TO THE EAST AND DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE WEST. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT, WITH COOL (24-26C) SSTS, VERY HIGH (>30KT) VWS AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THERMAL CROSS-SECTION AND THICKNESS ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM HAS BOTH TROPICAL AND EXTRATROPICAL FEATURES AT WARNING TIME. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD IT WILL ENCOUTER INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS, AND BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL JET, TRANSITIONING TO A FULLY EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM AT OR BEFORE TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS WARNING, NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS MEAN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z.//
2021020618 133S1774E 15
2021020700 136S1775E 15
2021020706 139S1779E 15
2021020712 142S1783E 15
2021020718 147S1787E 15
2021020800 151S1791E 20
2021020806 159S1795E 20
2021020812 173S1799E 25
2021020818 185S1800W 30
2021020900 193S1798W 30
2021020906 201S1793W 30
2021020912 218S1786W 30
2021020918 235S1779W 35
2021021000 251S1777W 45
2021021006 267S1774W 40
NNNN

>

2021-02-10 07:52


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TWENTY) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TWENTY) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 26.7S 177.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.7S 177.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 29.9S 176.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 33.1S 174.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 36.1S 172.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 27.5S 177.1W.
10FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TWENTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 566
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A WELL DEFINED AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH MODERATE CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE OVERALL DEPICTION IN THE MSI IS INCREASINGLY
EXTRATROPICAL, WITH THE COMMA-SHAPED CONVECTIVE ENVELOPE NOW
POLEWARD AND EASTWARD OF THE LLCC. A TIMELY 100600Z GMI 36GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH A WELL-DEFINED LOW EMISSIVITY REGION AND LOW
LEVEL CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES LENT HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KNOTS WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A BLEND OF A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS) FROM PGTW, AND AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45
KTS), AS WELL AS AN EXTRAPOLATION OF 100116Z AMSR2 WINDSPEED
ANALYSIS WHICH SHOWED 40-50KT WINDS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT, WITH 35-40KT WINDS ELSEWHERE.
TC 20P IS MOVING RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD ALONG TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
STR TO THE EAST AND DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE WEST. THE
OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT, WITH COOL (24-26C) SSTS, VERY HIGH (>30KT) VWS AND
ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THERMAL CROSS-SECTION AND THICKNESS
ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM HAS BOTH TROPICAL AND EXTRATROPICAL
FEATURES AT WARNING TIME. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD IT WILL ENCOUTER INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS,
AND BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL
JET, TRANSITIONING TO A FULLY EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM AT OR BEFORE TAU
36. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK,
WHICH REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS WARNING, NEAR THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS MEAN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS
18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z.//
NNNN

>

2021-02-10 02:31


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 100300
WARNING ATCG MIL 20P SWP 210210013056
2021021000 20P TWENTY 001 01 175 16 SATL XTRP 050
T000 251S 1777W 045 R034 140 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 287S 1769W 050 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 160 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 322S 1756W 045 R034 160 NE QD 140 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 352S 1735W 035 R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD
T048 382S 1703W 025
AMP
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TWENTY) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TWENTY) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 25.1S 177.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.1S 177.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 28.7S 176.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 32.2S 175.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 35.2S 173.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 38.2S 170.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 26.0S 177.5W.
10FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TWENTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 473 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z.//
2021020618 133S1774E 15
2021020700 136S1775E 15
2021020706 139S1779E 15
2021020712 142S1783E 15
2021020718 147S1787E 15
2021020800 151S1791E 20
2021020806 159S1795E 20
2021020812 173S1799E 25
2021020818 185S1800W 30
2021020900 193S1798W 30
2021020906 201S1793W 30
2021020912 218S1786W 30
2021020918 235S1779W 35
2021021000 251S1777W 45
NNNN

>

2021-02-10 02:31


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TWENTY) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/091451ZFEB2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TWENTY) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 25.1S 177.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.1S 177.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 28.7S 176.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 32.2S 175.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 35.2S 173.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 38.2S 170.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 26.0S 177.5W.
10FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (TWENTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
473 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 16
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH THE ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION BEING SHEARED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. AN
EXTRAPOLATION OF A 092048Z BULLSEYE METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE MSI LENDS GOOD CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL
POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS HEDGED BETWEEN MULTI-
AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5-3.5 (35-55 KTS,
KNES/PGTW/ABRF) AND IS BASED ON A SWATH OF 40-45KT WIND BARBS IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT IMAGE. THE 34-KNOT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BASED ON THE ASCAT PASS AS WELL. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS TC
20P IS TRACKING INTO A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (26-27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST)
AND ROBUST DUAL CHANNEL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW OFFSET BY PERSISTENT
HIGH (25-30 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 20P IS TRACKING ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
(NER) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE NER IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE
SYSTEM GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST. IN THE NEAR TERM, THE CONDUCIVE SST AND ROBUST OUTFLOW
ALOFT WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION TO 50
KTS BY TAU 12. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY WEAKEN DUE TO
CONTINUED HIGH VWS AND RAPIDLY COOLING SST (20-21 CELSIUS BY TAU
48). BY TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND START EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT).
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 80
NM AT TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, THE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AS
THE SYSTEM BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW AND COMPLETES
ETT BY TAU 48, IF NOT SOONER. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERCEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 091500 COR).//
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