Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for IOTA-20
in Honduras, Nicaragua

Global Telecommunication Service

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2020-11-18 14:47


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 181444
TCDAT1

Remnants Of Iota Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
900 AM CST Wed Nov 18 2020

Although the system still has broad mid-level rotation, synoptic
observations from Central America show that the surface circulation
of Iota has dissipated. Its remnants are located somewhere near El
Salvador.

Although the remnants of Iota are likely to move into the eastern
North Pacific during the next day or so, the global models do not
show regeneration of the system over that basin.

Iota is still expected to produce very serious flash flooding and
mudslides, with potentially catastrophic effects, over
portions of Central America.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center
on Iota.


Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is expected
through Thursday across portions of Central America due to heavy
rainfall from the remnants of Iota. Flooding and mudslides across
portions of Honduras, Nicaragua and Guatemala could be exacerbated
by saturated soils in place, resulting in significant to
potentially catastrophic impacts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 13.8N 89.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS OF IOTA
12H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-11-18 14:43


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 181440
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Iota Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
900 AM CST Wed Nov 18 2020

...IOTA DISSIPATES OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...
...HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 89.5W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM WNW OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the remnants of Iota were located near
latitude 13.8 North, longitude 89.5 West. The remnants are moving
toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

RAINFALL: The remnants of Iota are expected to produce the
following additional rainfall accumulations through Thursday:

Portions of Honduras, Guatemala, southern Belize: 4 to 8 inches (100
to 200 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm).

Portions of Nicaragua and El Salvador: 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm),
with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches (150 mm).

This rainfall will lead to significant, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect much of the coast of
Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. For additional information on the remnants,
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and
on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-11-18 14:42


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 181440
TCMAT1

REMNANTS OF IOTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020
1500 UTC WED NOV 18 2020

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 89.5W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 89.5W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 89.0W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 89.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS,
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2020-11-18 10:19


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 181017 CCA
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IOTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020
0900 UTC WED NOV 18 2020

CORRECTED FOR NO INTERMEDIATE

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 88.3W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 88.3W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 87.8W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 13.0N 89.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 88.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2020-11-18 10:18


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 181015 CCA
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Iota Advisory Number 20...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
300 AM CST Wed Nov 18 2020

Corrected Next Advisory section

...IOTA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER EL SALVADOR...
...THREAT OF CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 88.3W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NW OF EL PAPALON EL SALVADOR
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM E OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning for the northern coast of Honduras has
been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Iota was
located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 88.3 West. Iota is
moving toward the west-southwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through today. On the
forecast track, the center of Iota will move across El Salvador
before the system dissipates later today.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Iota is
expected to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low pressure
system later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following additional
rainfall accumulations through Thursday:

Portions of Honduras, Guatemala, southern Belize: 4 to 8 inches (100
to 200 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm).

Portions of Nicaragua and El Salvador: 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm),
with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches (150 mm).

This rainfall will lead to significant, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect much of the coast of
Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-11-18 08:40


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 180838
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Iota Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
300 AM CST Wed Nov 18 2020

Deep convection is no longer occurring near Iota's center, but
curved broken bands of convection still exist within 100 n mi in
the northern semicircle. For that reason, Iota is being maintained
as a tropical cyclone. Earlier ASCAT and ScatSat scatterometer data
between 0200-0300 UTC indicated surface winds of 30-32 kt offshore
the north-central coast of Honduras, while tropical-storm-force wind
gusts were noted in surface observations along the north coast of
Honduras. As a result, the intensity was maintained at 35 kt at the
0600 UTC synoptic time. Since then, however, winds have decreased
along the coast and offshore, which justify making Iota a 30-kt
tropical depression at the 0900 UTC advisory time. Therefore, the
Tropical Storm Warning for the northern coast of Honduras has been
discontinued.

The initial motion estimate is now 255/11 kt. Iota or its remnants
should continue moving west-southwestward across El Salvador,
possibly emerging over the eastern North Pacific Ocean as a
post-tropical cyclone before dissipation occurs by late today. At
this time, most of the available NHC model guidance does not show
regeneration over the eastern Pacific, with only the HWRF and HMON
regional models showing brief redevelopment to tropical depression
status on Thursday after Iota degenerates to a remnant low later
today. However, this is considered a low probability alternate
scenario due to unfavorable upper-level winds expected across the
eastern North Pacific.

Iota is still expected to produce very serious flash flooding and
mud slides. These hazards could result in potentially catastrophic
effects, especially when compounded upon Hurricane Eta's destruction
from a couple of weeks ago.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is expected
through Thursday across portions of Central America due to heavy
rainfall from Iota. Flooding and mudslides across portions of
Honduras, Nicaragua and Guatemala could be exacerbated by saturated
soils in place, resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic
impacts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 13.7N 88.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND EL SALVADOR
12H 18/1800Z 13.0N 89.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-11-18 08:40


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 180838
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Iota Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
300 AM CST Wed Nov 18 2020

...IOTA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER EL SALVADOR...
...THREAT OF CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 88.3W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NW OF EL PAPALON EL SALVADOR
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM E OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning for the northern coast of Honduras has
been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Iota was
located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 88.3 West. Iota is
moving toward the west-southwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through today. On the
forecast track, the center of Iota will move across El Salvador
before the system dissipates later today.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Iota is
expected to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low pressure
system later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following additional
rainfall accumulations through Thursday:

Portions of Honduras, Guatemala, southern Belize: 4 to 8 inches (100
to 200 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm).

Portions of Nicaragua and El Salvador: 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm),
with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches (150 mm).

This rainfall will lead to significant, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect much of the coast of
Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-11-18 08:39


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 180837
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IOTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020
0900 UTC WED NOV 18 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 88.3W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 88.3W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 87.8W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 13.0N 89.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 88.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 18/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2020-11-18 05:58


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 180556
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Iota Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
1200 AM CST Wed Nov 18 2020

...IOTA MOVING OVER SOUTHERN HONDURAS TOWARDS EL SALVADOR...
...THREAT OF CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES CONTINUES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 87.8W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NE OF EL PAPALON EL SALVADOR
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Honduras west of Punta Castilla to the
Honduras/Guatemala border
* Bay Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iota was
located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 87.8 West. Iota is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a westward to
west-southwestward motion is expected through today. On the
forecast track, the center of Iota will move across portions of
southern Honduras and El Salvador before the system dissipates later
today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid weakening is forecast, and Iota should weaken to a
tropical depression later this morning and degenerate into a remnant
low pressure area by this afternoon.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center, mainly along the coast in the Tropical Storm
Warning area. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that
tropical-storm-force wind gusts are still occurring along the
northwestern coast of Honduras.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

WIND: Tropical-storm conditions will continue for a couple of more
hours well to the north of the center along the Caribbean coast of
northwestern Honduras.

RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following additional
rainfall accumulations through Thursday:

El Salvador, Panama, western Honduras, northern Nicaragua, southern
Belize : 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated maximum
totals of 12 inches (300 mm).

This rainfall will lead to significant, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

Southern Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm),
with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm).

SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect much of the coast of
Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-11-18 02:37


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 180235
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Iota Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
900 PM CST Tue Nov 17 2020

Most of the deep convection associated with Iota has weakened
during the past several hours, with the primary remaining
convection now in a band well removed from the center in the
northwestern semicircle. The initial intensity is reduced to 35
kt, and these winds are possibly occuring in two areas - a small
area near what is left of the inner core and along the coast of
Honduras in the Tropical Storm warning area. Iota should continue
to quickly weaken, with the system expected to drop below
tropical-storm strength during the next few hours and to dissipate
completely between 12-24 h. At this time, the available guidance
is not bullish on any regeneration of the system over the Pacific.

The initial motion is 270/10. The cyclone or its remnants should
move westward to west-southwestward before dissipation occurs.

Iota is still expected to produce very serious hazards while it is
over central America, including flash flooding and mud slides,
These hazards could result in potentially catastrophic effects,
especially when compounded upon Hurricane Eta's destruction from a
couple of weeks ago.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is expected
through Thursday across portions of Central America due to heavy
rainfall from Iota. Flooding and mudslides across portions of
Honduras, Nicaragua and Guatemala could be exacerbated by saturated
soils in place, resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic
impacts.

2. Tropical-storm conditions, primarily close to the center of
Iota and along the coast of Honduras, are still expected for the
next few hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 13.7N 87.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
12H 18/1200Z 13.4N 88.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-11-18 02:37


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 180234
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Iota Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
900 PM CST Tue Nov 17 2020

...IOTA WEAKENING RAPIDLY OVER SOUTHERN HONDURAS...
...THREAT OF CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES CONTINUES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 87.3W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SSW OF TEGUCIGALPA HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Honduras has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning from Punta Castilla eastward to the Honduras/Nicaragua
border.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Honduras west of Punta Castilla to the
Honduras/Guatemala border
* Bay Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iota was
located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 87.3 West. Iota is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a westward to
west-southwestward motion is expected tonight and Wednesday. On
the forecast track, the center of Iota should move across portions
of southern Honduras and El Salvador before the system dissipates
on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional rapid weakening is forecast, and
Iota should weaken to a tropical depression tonight and degenerate
into a remnant low pressure area on Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center, mainly along the coast in the Tropical Storm
Warning area. La Ceiba, Honduras, reported a wind gust of 58 mph
(93 km/h) during the past few hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

WIND: Tropical-storm conditions will continue for a few more hours
near the center of Iota and in the Tropical Storm Warning area well
to the north of the center.

RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following additional
rainfall accumulations through Thursday:

El Salvador, Panama, western Honduras, northern Nicaragua, southern
Belize : 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated maximum
totals of 12 inches (300 mm).

This rainfall will lead to significant, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

Southern Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm),
with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm).

SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect much of the coast of
Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-11-18 02:37


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 180234
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM IOTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020
0300 UTC WED NOV 18 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM PUNTA CASTILLA EASTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA
BORDER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS WEST OF PUNTA CASTILLA TO THE
HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER
* BAY ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 87.3W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......160NE 20SE 20SW 160NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 87.3W AT 18/0300Z...INLAND
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 86.8W...INLAND

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 13.4N 88.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 87.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 18/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2020-11-17 23:46


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 172343 CCA
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Iota Intermediate Advisory Number 18A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
600 PM CST Tue Nov 17 2020

Correct Eta to Iota in headline

...CENTER OF IOTA MOVING INTO SOUTHERN HONDURAS...
...THREAT OF CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES CONTINUES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM IOTA...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 86.9W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SE OF TEGUCIGALPA HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...80 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Honduras
* Bay Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iota was
located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 86.9 West. Iota is
moving toward the west near 12 mph. The center of the storm will
move into southern Honduras tonight before dissipating near El
Salvador on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (80 km/h)
with higher gusts. Iota should weaken to a tropical depression this
evening or tonight and degenerate into a remnant low pressure area
on Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

WIND: Strong winds are occuring near the center of Iota and
these winds will spread farther inland across southern Honduras
during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are also
occurring in the Tropical Storm Warning areas along the coast in
Honduras.

RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Thursday:

Honduras, northern Nicaragua, southeast and central Guatemala and
southern Belize: 10 to 20 inches (250 to 500 mm), with isolated
maximum totals of 30 inches (750 mm).

El Salvador and Panama: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated
maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm).

This rainfall will lead to significant, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

Southern Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm),
with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm).

SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect much of the coast of
Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-11-17 23:38


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 172336
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Iota Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
600 PM CST Tue Nov 17 2020

...CENTER OF ETA MOVING INTO SOUTHERN HONDURAS...
...THREAT OF CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES CONTINUES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM IOTA...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 86.9W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SE OF TEGUCIGALPA HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...80 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Honduras
* Bay Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iota was
located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 86.9 West. Iota is
moving toward the west near 12 mph. The center of the storm will
move into southern Honduras tonight before dissipating near El
Salvador on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (80 km/h)
with higher gusts. Iota should weaken to a tropical depression this
evening or tonight and degenerate into a remnant low pressure area
on Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

WIND: Strong winds are occuring near the center of Iota and
these winds will spread farther inland across southern Honduras
during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are also
occurring in the Tropical Storm Warning areas along the coast in
Honduras.

RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Thursday:

Honduras, northern Nicaragua, southeast and central Guatemala and
southern Belize: 10 to 20 inches (250 to 500 mm), with isolated
maximum totals of 30 inches (750 mm).

El Salvador and Panama: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated
maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm).

This rainfall will lead to significant, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

Southern Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm),
with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm).

SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect much of the coast of
Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-11-17 21:11


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 172040
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM IOTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020
2100 UTC TUE NOV 17 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD
TO THE BORDER WITH HONDURAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS
* BAY ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 86.2W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT.......170NE 90SE 50SW 170NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 86.2W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 85.7W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 13.6N 87.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 86.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 18/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2020-11-17 21:07


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 172043
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Iota Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
300 PM CST Tue Nov 17 2020

The cloud pattern of Iota has slowly degraded during the day, with
warming of the cloud tops, but it has remained fairly well organized
for a system that's been over land for about 18 hours. The initial
wind speed is lowered to 50 kt using the Decay-SHIPS guidance. Iota
will encounter higher terrain soon while it moves westward at about
10 kt, so it should quickly weaken tonight, and it will probably
degenerate into a weak low near El Salvador overnight. None of the
available guidance show regeneration in the eastern Pacific, perhaps
due to cooler SSTs with all of the recent gap wind events, and
plenty of drier air in the vicinity.

Iota is still expected to produce very serious hazards while it is
over central America, including flash flooding and mud slides,
These hazards could result in potentially catastrophic effects,
especially when compounded upon Hurricane Eta's destruction from a
couple of weeks ago.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is expected
through Thursday across portions of Central America due to heavy
rainfall from Iota. Flooding and mudslides across portions of
Honduras, Nicaragua and Guatemala could be exacerbated by Hurricane
Eta?--s recent effects there, resulting in significant to potentially
catastrophic impacts.

2. Strong winds, primarily close to the center of Iota and along
the coast of Honduras, are still expected for the next several
hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 13.7N 86.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
12H 18/0600Z 13.6N 87.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-11-17 21:07


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 172042
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Iota Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
300 PM CST Tue Nov 17 2020

...THREAT OF CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES CONTINUES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM IOTA...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 86.2W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM ESE OF TEGUCIGALPA HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Nicaragua has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for the east coast of Nicaragua from Bluefields northward
to the border with Honduras.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Honduras
* Bay Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iota was
located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 86.2 West. Iota is
moving toward the west near 12 mph. The center of the storm will
move into southern Honduras tonight before dissipating near El
Salvador early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Iota should weaken to a tropical depression this
evening and degenerate into a remnant low pressure area on
Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

WIND: Strong winds are occuring near the center of Iota and
these winds will spread farther inland across southern Honduras
during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are also
occurring in the Tropical Storm Warning areas along the coast in
Honduras.

RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Thursday:

Honduras, northern Nicaragua, southeast and central Guatemala and
southern Belize: 10 to 20 inches (250 to 500 mm), with isolated
maximum totals of 30 inches (750 mm).

El Salvador and Panama: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated
maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm).

This rainfall will lead to significant, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

Southern Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm),
with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm).

SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect much of the coast of
Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-11-17 17:40


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 171738
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Iota Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
1200 PM CST Tue Nov 17 2020

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA POSSIBLE FROM IOTA THROUGH THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 85.7W
ABOUT 105 MI...160 KM E OF TEGUCIGALPA HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...105 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bluefields Nicaragua to the Guatemala/Honduras border
* Bay Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of Iota.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iota was
located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 85.7 West. Iota is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). The storm will move
farther inland across northern Nicaragua today, and move across
southern Honduras tonight before dissipating near El Salvador early
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (105 km/h)
with higher gusts. Iota should weaken to a tropical depression this
evening, and degenerate into a remnant low pressure area on
Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

WIND: Strong winds are occuring near the center of Iota and
these winds will spread farther inland across northern Nicaragua
and southern Honduras during the next several hours. Tropical
storm conditions are also occurring in the Tropical Storm Warning
areas along the coast in Nicaragua and Honduras.

RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Thursday:

Honduras, northern Nicaragua, southeast and central Guatemala and
southern Belize: 10 to 20 inches (250 to 500 mm), with isolated
maximum totals of 30 inches (750 mm).

El Salvador and Panama: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated
maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm).

This rainfall will lead to significant, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

Southern Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm),
with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm).

SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect much of the coast of
Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-11-17 14:43


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 171441
TCDAT1

Hurricane Iota Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
900 AM CST Tue Nov 17 2020

Satellite images indicate that Iota continues to weaken over land
with warming cloud tops near the center. It still has a small core,
however, so the initial wind speed will be lowered to 65 kt on this
advisory, in line with the Decay-SHIPS model. Further weakening is
expected today as Iota moves westward at about 10 kt, with Iota
becoming a tropical storm this afternoon, and a tropical depression
tonight. Iota should degenerate into a remnant low near El Salvador
by tomorrow due to the rugged terrain of central America.

While the winds of Iota are weakening, there are still life-
threatening hazards ongoing for central America, including flash
flooding and mud slides, which could result in potentially
catastrophic effects, especially when compounded upon Hurricane
Eta's destruction from a couple of weeks ago.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is expected
through Thursday across portions of Central America due to heavy
rainfall from Iota. Flooding and mudslides across portions of
Honduras, Nicaragua and Guatemala could be exacerbated by Hurricane
Eta?--s recent effects there, resulting in significant to potentially
catastrophic impacts.

2. Strong winds, primarily close to the center of Iota and along
the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras, are still expected for the
next several hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 13.7N 85.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
12H 18/0000Z 13.7N 86.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 18/1200Z 13.7N 88.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-11-17 14:41


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 171439
TCMAT1

HURRICANE IOTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020
1500 UTC TUE NOV 17 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS HAVE CHANGED THE
HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THEIR
RESPECTIVE COASTLINES FROM SANDY BAY SIRPI NICARAGUA TO PUNTA
PATUCA HONDURAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA TO THE GUATEMALA/HONDURAS BORDER
* BAY ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF IOTA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 85.2W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......150NE 110SE 70SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 85.2W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 84.7W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 13.7N 86.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...140NE 60SE 30SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 13.7N 88.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 85.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 17/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2020-11-17 11:49


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 171146
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Iota Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
700 AM EST Tue Nov 17 2020

...IOTA EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING, LANDSLIDES,
LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, AND POWERFUL WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 84.8W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM WNW OF EL PIA NICARAGUA
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM WSW OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...135 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi
* The coast of northeastern Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Bluefields
* The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca to the
Guatemala/Honduras border
* Bay Islands

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of Iota.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM EST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Iota was located
near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 84.8 West. Iota is moving toward
the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected
to continue during the next day or so. On the forecast track, Iota
will move farther inland across northern Nicaragua today, and move
across southern Honduras tonight and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (135 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional rapid weakening is expected today
into Wednesday, and Iota is forecast to dissipate over Central
America by Wednesday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 5 to 10 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

WIND: Significant wind damage is occurring near Iota's eyewall and
these winds will spread farther inland across northern Nicaragua
during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are
occurring in the Tropical Storm Warning areas in Nicaragua and
Honduras.

RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Thursday:

Honduras, northern Nicaragua, southeast and central Guatemala and
southern Belize: 10 to 20 inches (250 to 500 mm), with isolated
maximum totals of 30 inches (750 mm).

El Salvador and Panama: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated
maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm).

This rainfall will lead to significant, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

Southern Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm),
with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm).

SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect much of the coast of
Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next couple of
days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-11-17 08:46


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 170844
TCDAT1

Hurricane Iota Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
400 AM EST Tue Nov 17 2020

Iota made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane along the northeastern
coast of Nicaragua around 0340 UTC, near the town of Haulover.
Iota's landfall location was about 12 nmi south of where Category 4
Hurricane Eta made landfall earlier this month on November 3rd. Due
to the previous damage caused by Eta, wind reports have been
extremely limited. There was an amateur radio report from Club de
Radio-Experimentadores de Nicaragua of 124 mph (200 Km/h) winds and
roofs damaged in the town of Wilbi, Nicaragua. However, it is
uncertain if these were sustained winds or wind gusts. At the Puerto
Cabezas, Nicaragua, airport at 0253 UTC, a sustained wind of 72 kt
(134 km/h) and a gust to 98 kt (182 km/h) were measured. The initial
intensity of 90 kt is based on the Decay-SHIPS model's weakening
rate for inland tropical cyclones, and the remnant eye feature
still noted in infrared satellite imagery.

Iota is moving westward, or 270/08 kt. Iota is expected to continue
moving generally westward today into early Wednesday, as the cyclone
moves along he southern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge
located over the northern Caribbean Sea, the Gulf of Mexico, and
southeastern Mexico. The lower levels of the ridge are forecast to
push southward behind a cold front, which will force Iota and its
remnants west-southwestward across southern Honduras and El Salvador
in the 24-36 hour period. Iota is expected to dissipate by 48 hours,
with the remnant mid-level circulation possibly drifting westward
into the eastern North Pacific basin. The new NHC track forecast is
essentially just an extension of the previous advisory track, and
closely follows a blend of the consensus models TVCN, NOAA-HCCA, and
FSSE.

Additional rapid weakening is forecast for the next 36 hours as Iota
moves farther inland over the rugged terrain of Nicaragua and
Honduras. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous
advisory and closely follows the Decay-SHIPS intensity guidance.

Although Hurricane Iota has moved inland, damaging winds are
occurring inland, and also along the northeastern coast of
Nicaragua, where a significant storm surge of 5-10 ft is still
likely occurring. In addition to the destructive winds and storm
surge, there will be the potential for up to 30 inches of rainfall.
The situation is exacerbated by the fact that Iota is moving across
the same general location that Category 4 Hurricane Eta did a
little less than two weeks ago.

Key Messages:

1. Iota is still a significant hurricane. Damaging winds and a
life-threatening storm surge are expected along portions of the
coast of northeastern Nicaragua during the next several hours, where
a hurricane warning is in effect.

2. Life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is expected
through Thursday across portions of Central America due to heavy
rainfall from Iota. Flooding and mudslides across portions of
Honduras, Nicaragua and Guatemala could be exacerbated by Hurricane
Eta?--s recent effects there, resulting in significant to potentially
catastrophic impacts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 13.7N 84.3W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
12H 17/1800Z 13.8N 85.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
24H 18/0600Z 13.8N 87.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 18/1800Z 13.7N 89.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-11-17 08:40


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 170838
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Iota Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
400 AM EST Tue Nov 17 2020

...IOTA RAPIDLY WEAKENING OVER NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH FLOODING,
AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 84.3W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM ENE OF EL PIA NICARAGUA
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WSW OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Colombia has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Providencia and San Andres Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi
* The coast of northeastern Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Bluefields
* The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca to the
Guatemala/Honduras border
* Bay Islands

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should have already been completed.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of Iota.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Iota was located
near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 84.3 West. Iota is moving toward
the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected
to continue during the next day or so. On the forecast track, Iota
will move farther inland across northern Nicaragua today, and move
across southern Honduras tonight and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Iota is now a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional rapid weakening is expected today
into Wednesday, and Iota is forecast to dissipate over Central
America by Wednesday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to
175 miles (280 km). Puerto Cabezas airport in Nicaragua recently
reported a sustained wind of 51 mph (82 km/h) and a gust to 77 mph
(124 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 5 to 10 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

WIND: Significant wind damage is occurring near Iota's eyewall and
these winds will spread farther inland across northern Nicaragua
during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are
occurring in the Tropical Storm Warning areas in Nicaragua and
Honduras.

RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Thursday:

Honduras, northern Nicaragua, southeast and central Guatemala and
southern Belize: 10 to 20 inches (250 to 500 mm), with isolated
maximum totals of 30 inches (750 mm).

El Salvador and Panama: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated
maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm).

This rainfall will lead to significant, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

Southern Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm),
with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm).

SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect much of the coast of
Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next couple of
days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-11-17 08:40


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 170838
TCMAT1

HURRICANE IOTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020
0900 UTC TUE NOV 17 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR PROVIDENCIA AND SAN ANDRES ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO
SANDY BAY SIRPI
* THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM SOUTH OF SANDY BAY SIRPI TO BLUEFIELDS
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA TO THE
GUATEMALA/HONDURAS BORDER
* BAY ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF IOTA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 84.3W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT.......150NE 120SE 90SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 0SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 84.3W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 83.9W

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 13.8N 85.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 60SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 13.8N 87.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...130NE 0SE 0SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 13.7N 89.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 84.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 17/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2020-11-17 06:01


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 170559
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Iota Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
100 AM EST Tue Nov 17 2020

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS IOTA MOVING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH FLOODING,
AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM EST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 83.9W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM SW OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM SSW OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...210 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi
* The coast of northeastern Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Providencia
* San Andres
* The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Bluefields
* The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca to the
Guatemala/Honduras border
* Bay Islands

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should have already been completed.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of Iota.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM EST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Iota was located
near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 83.9 West. Iota is moving toward
the west near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to
continue during the next day or so. On the forecast track, Iota
will move farther inland across northern Nicaragua this morning, and
move across southern Honduras Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 130 mph (210 km/h)
with higher gusts. Iota is an extremely dangerous category 4
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Rapid
weakening is expected to continue today and Wednesday, and Iota is
forecast to dissipate over Central America by Wednesday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 935 mb (27.61 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is occurring near Iota's eyewall and
these winds will spread farther inland across northern Nicaragua
during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are
occurring in the Tropical Storm Warning areas in Nicaragua and
Honduras. Tropical storm conditions should subside during the next
few hours on the islands of Providencia and San Andres.

RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Thursday:

Honduras, northern Nicaragua, southeast Guatemala and southern
Belize: 10 to 20 inches (250 to 500 mm). Isolated maximum totals of
30 inches (750 mm) across northeast Nicaragua and northern Honduras.

El Salvador and Panama: 6 to 10 inches (150 to 250 mm), with
isolated maximum totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

Southern Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm),
with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm).

This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

Southern Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm),
with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm).

SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect much of the coast of
Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next couple of
days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-11-17 03:50


Original Message :

WTNT61 KNHC 170348
TCUAT1

Hurricane Iota Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
1045 PM EST Mon Nov 16 2020

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IOTA MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE
COAST OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE,
CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH FLOODING, AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...

Category 4 Hurricane Iota, with sustained winds near 155 mph (250
km/h), made landfall along the northeastern coast of Nicaragua near
the town of Haulover, or about 30 miles (45 km) south of Puerto
Cabezas, at 1040 PM EST...0340 UTC...this Monday evening.

Hurricane Iota's landfall location is approximately 15 miles (25
km) south of where Category 4 Hurricane Eta made landfall earlier
this month on November 3rd.

SUMMARY OF 1040 PM EST...0340 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 83.5W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM S OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM SSW OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...920 MB...27.17 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Latto

>

2020-11-17 02:37


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 170235
TCDAT1

Hurricane Iota Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
1000 PM EST Mon Nov 16 2020

Iota is about to make landfall on the coast of northeastern
Nicaragua about 30 miles south-southwest of Puerto Cabezas.
Satellite images show that the hurricane is very powerful with a
circular well-defined eye and a fairly symmetric convective ring
surrounding that feature. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters were
investigating Iota earlier this evening and found that the minimum
pressure was fairly steady at around 920 mb. Based on the aircraft
data, including 143-kt flight-level winds, the initial intensity is
set at 135 kt.

Iota is moving to the west at about 8 kt and this general motion is
expected to continue during the next couple of days, taking the
cyclone across northern Nicaragua and southern Honduras. Rapid
weakening is forecast as Iota moves inland, and the cyclone is
anticipated to dissipate over the rugged terrain of Central America
on Wednesday. The NHC track forecast follows the various consensus
models, and the intensity forecast is close to the Decay-SHIPS
guidance.

This is a catastrophic situation for northeastern Nicaragua with an
extreme storm surge of 15-20 ft forecast along with destructive
winds and potentially 30 inches of rainfall. In addition, the
situation is exacerbated by the fact that Iota is making landfall in
almost the exact same location that category 4 Hurricane Eta did a
little less than two weeks ago.

Key Messages:

1. Iota is a catastrophic hurricane. Extreme winds and a
life-threatening storm surge are expected along portions of the
coast of northeastern Nicaragua during the next several hours, where
a hurricane warning is in effect.

2. Life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is expected
through Thursday across portions of Central America due to the heavy
rainfall. Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua
could be exacerbated by Hurricane Etas recent effects there,
resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 13.6N 83.4W 135 KT 155 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
12H 17/1200Z 13.7N 84.7W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
24H 18/0000Z 13.8N 86.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 18/1200Z 13.8N 88.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Roberts

>

2020-11-17 02:36


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 170234
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Iota Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
1000 PM EST Mon Nov 16 2020

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS IOTA EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL VERY SOON...
...CATASTROPHIC WINDS, LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL OCCURRING IN CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 83.4W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM S OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM S OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...920 MB...27.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi
* The coast of northeastern Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Providencia
* San Andres
* The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Bluefields
* The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca to the
Guatemala/Honduras border
* Bay Islands

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should have already been completed.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of Iota.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Iota was located
near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 83.4 West. Iota is moving toward
the west near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to
continue during the next day or so. On the forecast track, Iota
is expected to make landfall in northeastern Nicaragua during the
next hour or two and move inland across northern Nicaragua and
southern Honduras on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts. Iota is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Rapid weakening is forecast
after Iota moves inland, and it is expected to dissipate over
Central America on Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km). Puerto Cabezas airport in Nicaragua recently reported
sustained winds of 70 mph (113 km/h) with a gust to 103 mph
(166 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from an Air
Force reconnaissance aircraft is 920 mb (27.17 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 15 to 20 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is occurring near Iota's eyewall and
these winds will spread inland across northern Nicaragua during the
next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the
Tropical Storm Warning areas in Nicaragua and Honduras. Tropical
storm conditions should subside during the next few hours on the
islands of Providencia and San Andres.

RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Thursday:

Honduras, northern Nicaragua, southeast Guatemala and southern
Belize: 10 to 20 inches (250 to 500 mm). Isolated maximum totals of
30 inches (750 mm) across northeast Nicaragua and northern Honduras.

El Salvador and Panama: 6 to 10 inches (150 to 250 mm), with
isolated maximum totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

Southern Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm),
with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm).

This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

Southern Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm),
with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm).

SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect much of the coast of
Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next couple of
days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Roberts

>

2020-11-17 02:34


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 170232
TCMAT1

HURRICANE IOTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020
0300 UTC TUE NOV 17 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO
SANDY BAY SIRPI
* THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PROVIDENCIA
* SAN ANDRES
* THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM SOUTH OF SANDY BAY SIRPI TO BLUEFIELDS
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA TO THE
GUATEMALA/HONDURAS BORDER
* BAY ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF IOTA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 83.4W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 920 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 35SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......150NE 120SE 100SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 45SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 83.4W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 83.1W

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 13.7N 84.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 70SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 13.8N 86.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 70SE 40SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 13.8N 88.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 83.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 17/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

2020-11-16 23:58


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 162356
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Iota Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
700 PM EST Mon Nov 16 2020

...WESTERN EYEWALL OF CATEGORY 5 IOTA IS OVER NICARAGUA...
...CATASTROPHIC WINDS, LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL OCCURRING IN CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 83.0W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM ESE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SSE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...918 MB...27.11 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi
* The coast of northeastern Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Providencia
* San Andres
* The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Bluefields
* The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca to the
Guatemala/Honduras border
* Bay Islands

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should have already been completed.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of Iota.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Iota was located near
latitude 13.6 North, longitude 83.0 West. Iota is moving toward the
west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is forecast
through landfall. After landfall, a westward to west-southwestward
motion is expected. On the forecast track, the core of Iota will
make landfall within the hurricane warning area in northeastern
Nicaragua within the next few hours, and dissipate over Central
America on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected until landfall, but
rapid weakening is forecast after Iota moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km). Puerto Cabezas airport in Nicaragua recently
reported sustained winds of 51 mph (82 km/h) with a gust to 81 mph
(130 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 918 mb (27.11 inches)
based on Air Force reconnaissance data.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 15 to 20 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Iota's eyewall
moves onshore within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua tonight
with tropical storm conditions already ongoing. Tropical storm
conditions are likely on the island of Providencia and San Andres
for the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are occurring in
the Tropical Storm Warning area in Nicaragua and will begin in the
Tropical Storm Warning area in Honduras later tonight.

RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Thursday:

Honduras, northern Nicaragua, southeast Guatemala and southern
Belize: 10 to 20 inches (250 to 500 mm). Isolated maximum totals of
30 inches (750 mm) will be possible, especially from northeast
Nicaragua into northern Honduras.

El Salvador and Panama: 6 to 10 inches (150 to 250 mm), with
isolated maximum totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

Southern Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm),
with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm).

SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect much of the coast of
Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, Jamaica, and Colombia during
the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Roberts

>

2020-11-16 21:20


Original Message :

WTNT61 KNHC 162118
TCUAT1

Hurricane Iota Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
420 PM EST Mon Nov 16 2020

The government of Colombia has replaced the Hurricane Warning with
a Tropical Storm Warning for Providencia and discontinued the
Hurricane Watch for San Andres.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Reinhart

>

2020-11-16 20:43


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 162040
TCDAT1

Hurricane Iota Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
400 PM EST Mon Nov 16 2020

Iota has a powerful appearance on the latest satellite imagery, with
a well-defined eye and solid eyewall. The last aircraft mission
reported winds similar to the previous crew, with maximum 700-mb
flight-level winds of about 145 kt, with SFMR values of 130-135 kt,
and a central pressure of about 919 mb. This data support an initial
wind speed of about 140 kt, although this could be a little
generous. The next aircraft will be in the hurricane early this
evening for a final reconnaissance assessment. Little change in
intensity is expected before landfall this evening, and rapid
weakening is anticipated over central America. Notably, strong
winds are expected near the core and in coastal areas of Honduras
for about a day after landfall, along with torrential rainfall.

The hurricane is moving westward a little slower, about 8 kt. The
forecast has been gradually adjusting southward with Iota refusing
to gain much latitude, seemingly under the influence of a strong
ridge. The new NHC track is nudged southward again, but still
remains close to where Hurricane Eta made landfall a couple of weeks
ago. Iota is expected to dissipate over the high terrain of central
America before reaching the eastern Pacific.

This remains a catastrophic situation for northeastern Nicaragua
with an extreme storm surge of 15-20 ft forecast along with
destructive winds and potentially 30 inches of rainfall, and it is
exacerbated by the fact that it should make landfall in almost the
exact same location that category 4 Hurricane Eta did a little less
than two weeks ago.


Key Messages:

1. Iota is expected to remain a catastrophic category 5 hurricane
when it approaches the coast of Nicaragua tonight. Extreme winds and
a life-threatening storm surge are expected along portions of the
coast of northeastern Nicaragua, where a hurricane warning is in
effect.

2. Through Thursday, heavy rainfall from Iota will likely lead to
life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions
of Central America. Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua
could be exacerbated by Hurricane Eta?--s recent effects there,
resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 13.6N 82.7W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 13.7N 83.8W 110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND
24H 17/1800Z 13.8N 85.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
36H 18/0600Z 13.8N 87.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-11-16 17:53


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 161751
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Iota Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
100 PM EST Mon Nov 16 2020

...CATEGORY 5 IOTA HEADED FOR NICARAGUA...
...EXPECTED TO BRING CATASTROPHIC WINDS, LIFE-THREATENING STORM
SURGE, AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL TO CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 82.3W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM W OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ESE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...918 MB...27.11 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Providencia
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi
* The coast of northeastern Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* San Andres

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres
* The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Bluefields
* The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca to the
Guatemala/Honduras border
* Bay Islands

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should have already been completed.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of Iota.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM EST (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Iota was located by
an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 13.5
North, longitude 82.3 West. Iota is moving toward the west near 9
mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is forecast through landfall.
After landfall, a westward to west-southwestward motion is expected.
On the forecast track, the core of Iota will make landfall within
the hurricane warning area in northeastern Nicaragua tonight, and
will dissipate over central America by Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher
gusts. Iota is forecast to continue to be a catastrophic category 5
hurricane when it approaches Central America tonight, and rapid
weakening is expected after landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 918 mb (27.11 inches)
based on Air Force reconnaissance data.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 15 to 20 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Iota's eyewall
moves onshore within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua tonight
with tropical storm conditions already ongoing. Hurricane conditions
are likely occurring on the island of Providencia, with tropical
storm conditions expected through this afternoon. Tropical storm
conditions are occurring on the island of San Andres, with hurricane
conditions possible. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
Tropical Storm Warning area in Nicaragua by late afternoon and in
the warning area in Honduras by tonight.

RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Thursday:

Honduras, northern Nicaragua, southeast Guatemala and southern
Belize: 10 to 20 inches (250 to 500 mm). Isolated maximum totals of
30 inches (750 mm) will be possible, especially from northeast
Nicaragua into northern Honduras.

El Salvador and Panama: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated
maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm).

This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

Southern Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm),
with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm).

SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect much of the coast of
Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, Jamaica, and Colombia during
the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-11-16 16:05


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 161603

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 16.11.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98E ANALYSED POSITION : 14.1N 107.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP982020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 16.11.2020 0 14.1N 107.4W 1009 21
0000UTC 17.11.2020 12 14.1N 109.4W 1008 21
1200UTC 17.11.2020 24 14.3N 111.1W 1009 23
0000UTC 18.11.2020 36 14.7N 113.1W 1007 25
1200UTC 18.11.2020 48 15.0N 115.8W 1007 25
0000UTC 19.11.2020 60 15.3N 118.2W 1005 31
1200UTC 19.11.2020 72 15.8N 120.5W 1005 33
0000UTC 20.11.2020 84 16.4N 122.6W 1005 32
1200UTC 20.11.2020 96 16.9N 125.1W 1009 33
0000UTC 21.11.2020 108 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE IOTA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.7N 82.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL312020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 16.11.2020 0 13.7N 82.1W 937 97
0000UTC 17.11.2020 12 13.3N 83.4W 955 80
1200UTC 17.11.2020 24 13.4N 84.9W 990 36
0000UTC 18.11.2020 36 13.7N 87.6W 1002 34
1200UTC 18.11.2020 48 14.4N 91.8W 1006 37
0000UTC 19.11.2020 60 13.0N 93.6W 1007 42
1200UTC 19.11.2020 72 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 161602

>

2020-11-16 14:55


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 161453
TCDAT1

Hurricane Iota Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
1000 AM EST Mon Nov 16 2020

Iota is a very impressive hurricane, especially for this late in the
year, with a distinct, warm eye on satellite images and a rather
electrified eyewall from the GOES lightning detector. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found maximum 700-mb flight-winds
of about 147 kt, with SFMR values of 140-145 kt, and a central
pressure of about 917 mb. A blend of all these data leads to an
initial wind speed of 140 kt, making Iota a category 5 hurricane,
the latest category 5 on record for the Atlantic basin. A little
more strengthening is possible today with fairly light shear and
warm waters before Iota makes landfall tonight. Rapid weakening is
anticipated over central America, and Iota should dissipate in a
couple of days.

The hurricane is moving westward at 9 kt. This general motion with
perhaps a slight gain in latitude is expected through tonight due
to a large ridge of the high pressure to the north. After
landfall, the cyclone should move a little faster, and dissipate
over the higher terrain of central America. The new forecast is a
little south of the previous one, mostly owing to the initial
position.

This is a catastrophic situation unfolding for northeastern
Nicaragua with an extreme storm surge of 15-20 ft forecast along
with destructive winds and potentially 30 inches of rainfall, and
it is exacerbated by the fact that it should make landfall in
almost the exact same location that category 4 Hurricane Eta did
about two weeks ago.


Key Messages:

1. Iota is expected to remain a catastrophic category 5 hurricane
when it approaches the coast of Nicaragua tonight. Extreme winds and
a life-threatening storm surge are expected along portions of the
coast of northeastern Nicaragua, where a hurricane warning is in
effect.

2. Through Thursday, heavy rainfall from Iota will likely lead to
life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions
of Central America. Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua
could be exacerbated by Hurricane Eta?--s recent effects there,
resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts.

3. Hurricane conditions and storm surge impacts are likely still
occurring on Providencia. Tropical storm conditions are
expected and hurricane conditions are possible on San Andres.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 13.5N 82.0W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 13.7N 83.2W 145 KT 165 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 14.0N 84.8W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
36H 18/0000Z 14.1N 86.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 18/1200Z 13.9N 88.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-11-16 14:54


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 161451
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Iota Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
1000 AM EST Mon Nov 16 2020

...IOTA BECOMES A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...
...FORECAST TO BRING CATASTROPHIC WINDS, LIFE-THREATENING STORM
SURGE, AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL TO CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 82.0W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM W OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ESE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...917 MB...27.08 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Honduras has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the north coast of Honduras from west of Punta Castilla to the
Guatemala/Honduras border, including the Bay Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Providencia
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi
* The coast of northeastern Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* San Andres

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres
* The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Bluefields
* The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca to the
Guatemala/Honduras border
* Bay Islands

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of Iota.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Iota was located by
an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 13.5
North, longitude 82.0 West. Iota is moving toward the west near 9
mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is forecast through landfall.
After landfall, a westward to west-southwestward motion is expected.
On the forecast track, the core of Iota will make landfall within
the hurricane warning area in northeastern Nicaragua tonight, and
will dissipate over central America by Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher
gusts. Iota is forecast to continue to be a catastrophic category
5 hurricane when it approaches Central America tonight, and rapid
weakening is expected after landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 917 mb (27.08 inches)
based on Air Force reconnaissance data.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 15 to 20 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Iota's eyewall
moves onshore within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua
tonight with tropical storm conditions expected by this afternoon.
Hurricane conditions are likely occurring on the island of
Providencia, with tropical storm conditions expected through this
afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are occurring on the island
of San Andres, with hurricane conditions possible. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in
Nicaragua by late afternoon and in the warning area in Honduras
by tonight.

RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Thursday:

Honduras, northern Nicaragua, southeast Guatemala and southern
Belize: 10 to 20 inches (250 to 500 mm). Isolated maximum totals of
30 inches (750 mm) will be possible, especially from northeast
Nicaragua into northern Honduras.

El Salvador and Panama: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated
maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm).

This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

Southern Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm),
with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm).

SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect much of the coast of
Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, Jamaica, and Colombia during
the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-11-16 14:54


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 161451
TCMAT1

HURRICANE IOTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020
1500 UTC MON NOV 16 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA CASTILLA TO THE
GUATEMALA/HONDURAS BORDER...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PROVIDENCIA
* THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO
SANDY BAY SIRPI
* THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN ANDRES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN ANDRES
* THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM SOUTH OF SANDY BAY SIRPI TO BLUEFIELDS
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA TO THE
GUATEMALA/HONDURAS BORDER
* BAY ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF IOTA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 82.0W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 917 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......130NE 100SE 90SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 82.0W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 81.6W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 13.7N 83.2W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.0N 84.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 14.1N 86.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...140NE 40SE 0SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 13.9N 88.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 82.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 16/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2020-11-16 11:53


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 161143
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Iota Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
700 AM EST Mon Nov 16 2020

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS ALMOST IN THE CORE OF IOTA...
...IOTA EXPECTED TO BRING CATASTROPHIC WINDS, LIFE-THREATENING
STORM SURGE, AND EXTREME RAINFALL IMPACTS TO CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 81.6W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NW OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...245 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Providencia
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi
* The coast of northeastern Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* San Andres

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres
* The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Bluefields
* The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca to Punta
Castilla

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion in Nicaragua and
Honduras.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of Iota.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM EST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Iota was located
by NOAA satellite data near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 81.6
West. Iota is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A
westward to west-northwestward motion is forecast through landfall.
After landfall, a westward to west-southwestward motion is expected.
On the forecast track, the core of Iota will make landfall within
the hurricane warning area in northeastern Nicaragua and eastern
Honduras tonight, and will dissipate over central America by
midweek.

Data from NOAA satellites indicate that maximum sustained winds
have increased to near 155 mph (245 km/h) with higher gusts. Iota
is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale. Iota could be a catastrophic category 5 hurricane when it
approaches Central America tonight, and rapid weakening is expected
after landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 925 mb (27.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 12 to 18 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Iota's eyewall
moves onshore within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua
and Honduras beginning late tonight with tropical storm conditions
expected by late morning. Hurricane conditions are likely occurring
on the island of Providencia, with tropical storm conditions
expected through the remainder of this morning and possibly into the
early afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring on
the island of San Andres, with hurricane conditions possible there
later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
Tropical Storm Warning area in Nicaragua by late afternoon and in
the warning area in Honduras by tonight.

RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Thursday:

Honduras, northern Nicaragua, Guatemala, southern Belize: 8 to 16
inches (200 to 400 mm). Isolated maximum totals of 20-30 inches (500
to 750 mm) will be possible, especially from northeast Nicaragua
into northern Honduras.

Costa Rica and Panama: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated
maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm).

This rainfall will lead to significant, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

El Salvador and southern Nicaragua: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm),
with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm).

SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect much of the coast of
Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, Jamaica, and Colombia during
the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-11-16 08:57


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 160855
TCDAT1

Hurricane Iota Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
400 AM EST Mon Nov 16 2020

Iota has explosively deepened 26 mb during the past 6 hours and has
rapidly intensified an incredible 35 kt during that same time. An
Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and aircrew that flew the
arduous, 10-hour round-trip mission into Iota reported a maximum
700-mb flight-level wind speed of 134 kt and peak SFMR surface winds
of 121 kt, which supports the initial intensity of 125 kt, making
Iota a strong Category 4 hurricane. Furthermore, the pressure fell
an amazing 10 mb from 945 mb down to 935 mb in a little over an hour
between those two fixes. The crew also encountered intense lightning
and hail in the southwestern quadrant, where recent remote data
indicate that frequent lightning is still occurring. The aircrew
reported that the eye was around 15 n mi wide, and the latest
GOES-16 hi-resolution infrared satellite imagery confirms that the
eye diameter, and that the eye has cleared out with continued
warming eye temperatures and cooling surrounding cloud tops.

Iota is moving north of due west, or 280/09 kt. A westward to
west-northwestward motion is forecast until powerful Hurricane Iota
makes landfall in northeastern Nicaragua later tonight. Shortly
after landfall, a building ridge to the north of the hurricane is
expected to nudge Iota on a more westward track through 36 hours,
followed by a slower west-southwestward motion across central and
southwestern Honduras until it dissipates in the 72-96 hour
period. The latest model guidance remains tightly clustered. The
new NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory
track, and lies close to a blend of the consensus track models TVCN,
NOAA-HCCA, and FSSE.

Iota is expected to remain in environmental conditions characterized
by near-zero vertical wind shear, SSTs near 29 deg C, and a moist
mid-level environment. The combination of these factors plus the
relatively small radius of maximum winds (RMW) of about 10 n mi,
argues for continued rapid strengthening right up until landfall
occurs, and Iota could be near Category 5 strength at that time.
After landfall, rapid weakening is expected over the rugged terrain
of Nicaragua and Honduras. Iota is forecast to become a tropical
storm by 36 hours, and degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low
by 60 hours, if not sooner, which is in line with the SHIPS
intensity inland decay model. The NHC official intensity forecast
remains above of all of the available guidance through 24 hours, and
then closely follows the Decay-SHIPS intensity model thereafter.


Key Messages:

1. Iota is expected to continue to rapidly intensify and could
possibly be a catastrophic category 5 hurricane when it approaches
the coast of Central America tonight. Extreme winds and a
life-threatening storm surge are expected along portions of the
coast of northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras, where a
hurricane warning is in effect.

2. Hurricane conditions and storm surge impacts are likely on
Providencia today. Tropical storm conditions are expected and
hurricane conditions are possible on San Andres.

3. Through Thursday, heavy rainfall from Iota will likely lead to
life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions
of Central America. Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua
could be exacerbated by Hurricane Eta?--s recent effects there,
resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 13.6N 81.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 13.8N 82.2W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 14.1N 83.7W 120 KT 140 MPH...INLAND
36H 17/1800Z 14.3N 85.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
48H 18/0600Z 14.3N 86.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
60H 18/1800Z 14.1N 88.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 19/0600Z 13.8N 89.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-11-16 08:33


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 160831
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Iota Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
400 AM EST Mon Nov 16 2020

...IOTA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4
HURRICANE......EXPECTED TO BRING POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC WINDS,
LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, AND EXTREME RAINFALL IMPACTS TO
CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 81.1W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NE OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Providencia
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi
* The coast of northeastern Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* San Andres

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres
* The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Bluefields
* The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca to Punta
Castilla

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion in Nicaragua and
Honduras. Preparations to protect life and property should have
already been completed on Providencia and San Andres islands.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of Iota.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Iota was located
by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA satellite
data near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 81.1 West. Iota is moving
toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion is forecast through landfall. After
landfall, a westward to west-southwestward motion is expected. On
the forecast track, the core of Iota will pass near or over
Providencia island during the next few hours, and make landfall
within the hurricane warning area in northeastern Nicaragua and
eastern Honduras tonight.

Data from the aircraft and NOAA satellites indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 145 mph (230 km/h) with
higher gusts. Iota is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional rapid strengthening is expected
during the next 12 to 18 hours, and Iota could possibly be a
catastrophic category 5 hurricane when it approaches Central America
tonight.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on reports from the
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter is 933 mb (27.55 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Thursday:

Honduras, northern Nicaragua, Guatemala, southern Belize: 8 to 16
inches (200 to 400 mm). Isolated maximum totals of 20-30 inches (500
to 750 mm) will be possible, especially from northeast Nicaragua
into northern Honduras.

Costa Rica and Panama: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated
maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm).

This rainfall will lead to significant, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

El Salvador and southern Nicaragua: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm),
with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm).

WIND: Potentially catastrophic wind damage is expected where Iota's
eyewall moves onshore within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua
and Honduras beginning late tonight with tropical storm conditions
expected by late morning. Hurricane conditions are likely occurring
on the island of Providencia, with tropical storm conditions
expected through the remainder of this morning and possibly into the
early afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring on
the island of San Andres, with hurricane conditions possible there
later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
Tropical Storm Warning area in Nicaragua by late afternoon and in
the warning area in Honduras by tonight.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect much of the coast of
Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, Jamaica, and Colombia during
the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-11-16 08:32


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 160830
TCMAT1

HURRICANE IOTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020
0900 UTC MON NOV 16 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PROVIDENCIA
* THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO
SANDY BAY SIRPI
* THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN ANDRES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN ANDRES
* THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM SOUTH OF SANDY BAY SIRPI TO BLUEFIELDS
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA TO PUNTA
CASTILLA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE
ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED ON PROVIDENCIA AND SAN ANDRES ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF IOTA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 81.1W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 933 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......130NE 100SE 90SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 81.1W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 80.7W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 13.8N 82.2W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.1N 83.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 14.3N 85.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...130NE 60SE 30SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 14.3N 86.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 14.1N 88.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 13.8N 89.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 81.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 16/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2020-11-16 06:47


Original Message :

WTNT61 KNHC 160644
TCUAT1

Hurricane Iota Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
140 AM EST Mon Nov 16 2020

...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS IOTA HAS RAPIDLY
STRENGTHENED INTO A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...

Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft data indicate that Iota
now has maximum sustained winds of 140 mph (225 km/h) with higher
gusts. The minimum pressure measured by the plane was 935 mb (27.61
inches). The updated intensity will be reflected in the next
advisory which will be issued by 400 AM EST.

SUMMARY OF 140 AM EST...0640 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 80.7W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM ENE OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...225 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Zelinsky

>

2020-11-16 06:12


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 160608
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Iota Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
100 AM EST Mon Nov 16 2020

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS IOTA HAS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENED INTO
A DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE......EXPECTED TO BRING POTENTIALLY
CATASTROPHIC WINDS, LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, AND EXTREME
RAINFALL IMPACTS TO CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM EST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 80.7W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM ENE OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Providencia
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi
* The coast of northeastern Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* San Andres

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres
* The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Bluefields
* The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca to Punta
Castilla

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of Iota.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM EST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Iota was located
by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 13.5
North, longitude 80.7 West. Iota is moving toward the west near 10
mph (17 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected
through landfall. After landfall, a westward to west-southwestward
motion is forecast. On the forecast track, the core of Iota will
pass near or over Providencia island during the next few hours, and
make landfall within the hurricane warning area in northeastern
Nicaragua and eastern Honduras tonight.

Reports from the aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds
have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Iota is
now a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale. Rapid strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours, and
Iota is forecast to be an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane
when it approaches Central America tonight.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).

The latest data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the
minimum central pressure is 945 mb (27.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Friday morning:

Honduras, northern Nicaragua, Guatemala, southern Belize: 8 to 16
inches (200 to 400 mm). Isolated maximum totals of 20-30 inches (500
to 750 mm) will be possible, especially from northeast Nicaragua
into northern Honduras.

Costa Rica and Panama: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated
maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm).

This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

El Salvador and southern Nicaragua: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm),
with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm).

Northern Colombia: An additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm), with
isolated maximum totals near 12 inches (300 mm).

WIND: Potentially catastrophic wind damage is expected where Iota's
eyewall moves onshore within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua
and Honduras beginning late tonight with tropical storm conditions
expected this morning. Hurricane conditions are expected on
the island of Providencia shortly with tropical storm conditions
expected to continue through this morning and possibly into the
early afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on
the island of San Andres shortly with hurricane conditions possible
there later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected in
the Tropical Storm Warning area in Nicaragua by late afternoon and
in the warning area in Honduras by tonight.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect much of the coast of
Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, Jamaica, and Colombia during
the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-11-16 05:57


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 160554
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Iota Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
100 AM EST Mon Nov 16 2020

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS IOTA HAS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENED INTO
A DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO BRING POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC WINDS, LIFE-
THREATENING STORM SURGE, AND EXTREME RAINFALL IMPACTS TO
CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM EST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 80.7W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM ENE OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Providencia
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi
* The coast of northeastern Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* San Andres

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres
* The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Bluefields
* The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca to Punta
Castilla

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of Iota.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM EST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Iota was located
by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 13.5
North, longitude 80.7 West. Iota is moving toward the west near 10
mph (17 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected
through landfall. After landfall, a westward to west-southwestward
motion is forecast. On the forecast track, the core of Iota will
pass near or over Providencia island during the next few hours, and
make landfall within the hurricane warning area in northeastern
Nicaragua and eastern Honduras tonight.

Reports from the aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds
have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Iota is
now a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale. Rapid strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours, and
Iota is forecast to be an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane
when it approaches Central America tonight.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).

The latest data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the
minimum central pressure is 945 mb (27.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Friday morning:

Honduras, northern Nicaragua, Guatemala, southern Belize: 8 to 16
inches (200 to 400 mm). Isolated maximum totals of 20-30 inches (500
to 750 mm) will be possible, especially from northeast Nicaragua
into northern Honduras.

Costa Rica and Panama: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated
maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm).

This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

El Salvador and southern Nicaragua: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm),
with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm).

Northern Colombia: An additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm), with
isolated maximum totals near 12 inches (300 mm).

WIND: Potentially catastrophic wind damage is expected where Iota's
eyewall moves onshore within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua
and Honduras beginning late tonight with tropical storm conditions
expected this morning. Hurricane conditions are expected on
the island of Providencia shortly with tropical storm conditions
expected to continue through this morning and possibly into the
early afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on
the island of San Andres shortly with hurricane conditions possible
there later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected in
the Tropical Storm Warning area in Nicaragua by late afternoon and
in the warning area in Honduras by tonight.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect much of the coast of
Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, Jamaica, and Colombia during
the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-11-16 02:34


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 160231
TCDAT1

Hurricane Iota Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
1000 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

Iota continues to gain strength. A small eye has occasionally
appeared in satellite images, and the banding features are well
established and fairly symmetric around the center. The Air Force
Hurricane Hunters investigated Iota earlier this evening, and
they found maximum flight-level winds of 93 kt and maximum SFMR
surface winds of 84 kt around 00Z. Based on this data and the
continued improvement in organization, the initial intensity is
increased to 90 kt. The minimum pressure based on dropsonde data
from the aircraft was 961 mb around 00Z, which is a 13 mb drop from
the flight earlier today. Another Air Force plane is set to be in
the hurricane overnight.

Iota is moving westward at about 9 kt. A westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected until the cyclone makes
landfall in northeastern Nicaragua Monday night. After landfall,
the models show a slight bend to the left as the hurricane moves in
the flow on the southeast side of a mid-level ridge centered over
Mexico. The models are tightly clustered, and the NHC track
forecast is largely an update of the previous one.

The hurricane is in near ideal conditions to continue strengthening
until landfall. In an environment of warm 29 C waters, very low
wind shear, and a moist air mass all of the normally skillful
models show Iota becoming a dangerous major hurricane before it
strikes the coast. Given the favorable conditions, well-defined
structure of the hurricane, and model guidance there is high
confidence that significant wind, surge, and rainfall impacts will
occur in portions of the hurricane warning area. After Iota moves
inland, rapid weakening is expected and the hurricane will likely
dissipate over the rugged terrain in Central America in 3 or 4 days.


Key Messages:

1. Iota is expected to continue to rapidly intensify and be an
extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane when it approaches the
coast of Central America on Monday. Potentially catastrophic
winds and a life-threatening storm surge are expected along portions
of the coast of northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras, where a
hurricane warning is in effect.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected and storm surge impacts
are possible on Providencia later tonight and Monday. Tropical
storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible
on San Andres.

3. Through Friday morning, heavy rainfall from Iota will likely lead
to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across
portions of Central America. Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and
Nicaragua could be exacerbated by Hurricane Eta?--s recent effects
there, resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 13.3N 80.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 13.5N 81.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 13.9N 82.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 14.2N 84.3W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
48H 18/0000Z 14.3N 85.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
60H 18/1200Z 14.1N 87.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 19/0000Z 13.8N 88.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2020-11-16 02:34


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 160231
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Iota Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
1000 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...IOTA FORECAST TO BECOME A DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE SOON...
...EXPECTED TO BRING POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC WINDS, LIFE-
THREATENING STORM SURGE, AND EXTREME RAINFALL IMPACTS TO
CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 80.2W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM E OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Providencia
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi
* The coast of northeastern Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* San Andres

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres
* The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Bluefields
* The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca to Punta
Castilla

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of Iota.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Iota was located
near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 80.2 West. Iota is moving toward
the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward
motion is expected through landfall. After landfall, a westward to
west-southwestward motion is forecast. On the forecast track, the
core of Iota will pass near or over Providencia island late tonight
or Monday, and make landfall within the hurricane warning area in
northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours, and
Iota is forecast to be an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane
when it approaches Central America.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Friday morning:

Honduras, northern Nicaragua, Guatemala, southern Belize: 8 to 16
inches (200 to 400 mm). Isolated maximum totals of 20-30 inches (500
to 750 mm) will be possible, especially from northeast Nicaragua
into northern Honduras.

Costa Rica and Panama: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated
maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm).

This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

El Salvador and southern Nicaragua: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm),
with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm).

Northern Colombia: An additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm), with
isolated maximum totals near 12 inches (300 mm).

WIND: Potentially catastrophic wind damage is expected where Iota's
eyewall moves onshore within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua
and Honduras beginning late Monday with tropical storm conditions
expected Monday morning. Hurricane conditions are expected on the
island of Providencia overnight with tropical storm conditions
expected during the next couple of hours. Tropical storm conditions
are expected to begin on the island of San Andres later tonight with
hurricane conditions possible there early Monday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in
Nicaragua by late Monday and in the warning area in Honduras by
Monday night.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect much of the coast of
Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, Jamaica, and Colombia during
the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2020-11-16 02:33


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 160231
TCMAT1

HURRICANE IOTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020
0300 UTC MON NOV 16 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PROVIDENCIA
* THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO
SANDY BAY SIRPI
* THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN ANDRES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN ANDRES
* THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM SOUTH OF SANDY BAY SIRPI TO BLUEFIELDS
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA TO PUNTA
CASTILLA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF IOTA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 80.2W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......130NE 100SE 70SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 80.2W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 79.8W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 13.5N 81.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 13.9N 82.9W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.2N 84.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 14.3N 85.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...140NE 70SE 40SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.1N 87.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 13.8N 88.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 80.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 16/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

2020-11-15 23:37


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 152335
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Iota Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
700 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...IOTA STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO BRING POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC WINDS, LIFE-
THREATENING STORM SURGE, AND EXTREME RAINFALL IMPACTS TO
CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 79.8W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM E OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Providencia
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi
* The coast of northeastern Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* San Andres

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres
* The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Bluefields
* The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca to Punta
Castilla

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of Iota.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Iota was located
near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 79.8 West. Iota is moving toward
the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward
motion is expected through landfall. After landfall, a westward to
west-southwestward motion is forecast. On the forecast track, the
core of Iota will pass near or over Providencia island late tonight
or Monday, and make landfall within the hurricane warning area in
northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is expected during the next
24 hours, and Iota is forecast to be an extremely dangerous category
4 hurricane when it approaches Central America.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunters is 964 mb (28.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Friday morning:

Honduras, northern Nicaragua, Guatemala, southern Belize: 8 to 16
inches (200 to 400 mm). Isolated maximum totals of 20-30 inches (500
to 750 mm) will be possible, especially from northeast Nicaragua
into northern Honduras.

Costa Rica and Panama: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated
maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm).

This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

El Salvador and southern Nicaragua: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm),
with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm).

Northern Colombia: An additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm), with
isolated maximum totals near 12 inches (300 mm).

WIND: Potentially catastrophic wind damage is expected where Iota's
eyewall moves onshore within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua
and Honduras area beginning late Monday with tropical storm
conditions expected Monday morning. Hurricane conditions are
expected on the island of Providencia overnight with tropical storm
conditions expected this evening. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin on the island of San Andres later this evening
with hurricane conditions possible there early Monday. Tropical
storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in
Nicaragua by late Monday and in the warning area in Honduras by
Monday night.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect much of the coast of
Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, Jamaica, and Colombia during
the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2020-11-15 20:39


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 152037
TCDAT1

Hurricane Iota Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
400 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

The satellite presentation of Iota has continued to improve this
afternoon. A ragged eye has become apparent in visible satellite
imagery, with excellent banding features surrounding it. An Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured a minimum central
pressure of 977 mb during its first pass through the center earlier
this afternoon, and recorded around 974 mb on its second pass.
Somewhat surprisingly, the plane only measured peak 700-mb
flight-level winds of 74 kt and SFMR winds of 68 kt. Those winds
support an intensity slightly lower than what was previously
estimated, but given the low central pressure and downward trend,
plus the fact that the plane only made a single pass in each
quadrant, it is possible that the maximum winds were not sampled.
In addition, the satellite presentation and pressure fall may be
preceding the winds slightly. Therefore, the initial is again set
at 80 kt. Another Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is en
route and should provide additional information on Iota's intensity
this evening.

Very favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions consisting
of low vertical wind shear and warm waters are expected to lead to
rapid strengthening until the center crosses the coast of Central
America. The NHC intensity forecast again calls for Iota to reach
major hurricane strength tonight, and become an extremely dangerous
category 4 hurricane before it reaches the coast of Central America
Monday night. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the
previous advisory and shows a peak slightly above the latest HFIP
corrected consensus model. After landfall, rapid weakening should
occur as Iota moves over the mountainous terrain of Central America.

Iota is moving westward to west-northwestward at about 8 kt. The
track forecast philosophy is unchanged from before. A strong
mid-level ridge that extends across the western Atlantic and
Florida will steer Iota westward to west-northwestward through
landfall Monday night. Once Iota moves over Central America, a
westward to west-southwestward motion is expected. The updated
NHC track forecast has been adjusted southward through 24 hours,
but little overall change was required thereafter. The official
forecast lies near the middle of the tightly clustered dynamical
model envelope.

In addition to potentially catastrophic winds, Iota is expected to
bring a life-threatening storm surge and extreme rainfall impacts
to portions of Central America. This comes less than two weeks
after Hurricane Eta significantly impacted the area.


Key Messages:

1. Iota is expected to continue to rapidly intensify and be an
extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane when it approaches the
coast of Central America on Monday. Potentially catastrophic
winds and a life-threatening storm surge are expected along portions
of the coast of northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras where a
hurricane warning is in effect.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected and storm surge impacts
are possible on Providencia tonight and Monday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible on
San Andres.

3. Through Friday morning, heavy rainfall from Iota will likely lead
to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across
portions of Central America. Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and
Nicaragua could be exacerbated by Hurricane Eta?--s recent effects
there, resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 13.3N 79.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 13.6N 80.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 14.0N 82.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 14.3N 83.6W 105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND
48H 17/1800Z 14.4N 84.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
60H 18/0600Z 14.3N 86.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 18/1800Z 14.1N 87.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-11-15 20:39


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 152036
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Iota Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
400 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...RAPID STRENGTHENING EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS IOTA
APPROACHES NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...
...EXPECTED TO BRING POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC WINDS, LIFE-
THREATENING STORM SURGE, AND EXTREME RAINFALL IMPACTS TO
CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 79.3W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM E OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Providencia
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi
* The coast of northeastern Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* San Andres

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres
* The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Bluefields
* The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca to Punta
Castilla

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of Iota.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Iota was located
near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 79.3 West. Iota is moving toward
the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward
motion is expected through landfall. After landfall, a westward to
west-southwestward motion is forecast. On the forecast track, the
core of Iota will pass near or over Providencia island late tonight
or Monday, and approach the coasts of northeastern Nicaragua and
eastern Honduras Monday, and make landfall within the hurricane
warning area Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours,
and Iota is forecast to be an extremely dangerous category 4
hurricane when it approaches Central America.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Friday morning:

Honduras, northern Nicaragua, Guatemala, southern Belize: 8 to 16
inches (200 to 400 mm). Isolated maximum totals of 20-30 inches (500
to 750 mm) will be possible, especially from northeast Nicaragua
into northern Honduras.

Costa Rica and Panama: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated
maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm).

This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

El Salvador and southern Nicaragua: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm),
with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm).

Northern Colombia: An additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm), with
isolated maximum totals near 12 inches (300 mm).

WIND: Potentially catastrophic wind damage is expected where Iota's
eyewall moves onshore within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua
and Honduras area beginning late Monday with tropical storm
conditions beginning Monday morning. Hurricane conditions are
expected on the island of Providencia overnight with tropical
storm conditions expected beginning this evening. Tropical storm
conditions are expected to begin on the island of San Andres this
evening with hurricane conditions possible there early Monday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning
area in Nicaragua by late Monday and in the warning area in Honduras
by Monday night.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect portions of the coast of
Colombia, and the southern coasts of Hispaniola and Jamaica during
the next day or two. Swells will begin to reach the coasts of
Nicaragua and Honduras tonight and Monday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-11-15 20:38


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 152036
TCMAT1

HURRICANE IOTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020
2100 UTC SUN NOV 15 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PROVIDENCIA
* THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO
SANDY BAY SIRPI
* THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN ANDRES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN ANDRES
* THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM SOUTH OF SANDY BAY SIRPI TO BLUEFIELDS
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA TO PUNTA
CASTILLA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF IOTA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 79.3W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 75SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 79.3W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 78.9W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 13.6N 80.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 14.0N 82.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.3N 83.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 14.4N 84.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 14.3N 86.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 14.1N 87.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 79.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 16/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2020-11-15 17:50


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 151748
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Iota Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
100 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING
IOTA...
...THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO BRING POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC
WINDS, A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, AND EXTREME RAINFALL IMPACTS
TO CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 78.9W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM E OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA
ABOUT 315 MI...520 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Providencia
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi
* The coast of northeastern Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* San Andres

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres
* The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Bluefields
* The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca to Punta
Castilla

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of Iota.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM EST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Iota was located
near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 78.9 West. Iota is moving toward
the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward
motion is expected through landfall. After landfall, a westward to
west-southwestward motion is forecast. On the forecast track, the
core of Iota will move across the southwestern Caribbean Sea today,
pass near or over Providencia island late tonight or Monday, and
approach the coasts of northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras
within the hurricane warning area late Monday.

Maximum sustained are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts.
Rapid strengthening is expected during the next 36 hours, and Iota
is forecast to be an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane when
it approaches Central America.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 977 mb (28.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Friday morning:

Honduras, northern Nicaragua, Guatemala, southern Belize: 8 to 16
inches (200 to 400 mm). Isolated maximum totals of 20-30 inches (500
to 750 mm) will be possible, especially from northeast Nicaragua
into northern Honduras.

Costa Rica and Panama: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated
maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm).

This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

El Salvador and southern Nicaragua: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm),
with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm).

Northern Colombia: An additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm), with
isolated maximum totals near 12 inches (300 mm).

WIND: Potentially catastrophic wind damage is expected where Iota's
eyewall moves onshore within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua
and Honduras area beginning late Monday with tropical storm
conditions beginning Monday morning. Hurricane conditions are
expected on the island of Providencia overnight with tropical
storm conditions expected beginning this evening. Tropical storm
conditions are expected to begin on the island of San Andres this
evening with hurricane conditions possible there early Monday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning
area in Nicaragua by late Monday and in the warning area in Honduras
by Monday night.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect portions of the coast of
Colombia, and the southern coasts of Hispaniola and Jamaica during
the next day or two. Swells will begin to reach the coasts of
Nicaragua and Honduras tonight and Monday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Blake

>

2020-11-15 15:08


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 151501 CCA
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Iota Advisory Number 9...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
1000 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

Corrected the reference to the storm name in the wind section

...IOTA EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO BRING POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC WINDS, A
LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND EXTREME RAINFALL IMPACTS TO CENTRAL
AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 78.5W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM E OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Providencia
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi
* The coast of northeastern Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* San Andres

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres
* The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Bluefields
* The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca to Punta
Castilla

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of Iota.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Iota was located
near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 78.5 West. Iota is moving toward
the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A westward
to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next day or so
until landfall occurs. After landfall, a westward to
west-southwestward motion is forecast. On the forecast track,
the core of Iota will move across the southwestern Caribbean Sea
today, pass near or just north of Providencia island on
Monday, and approach the coasts of northeastern Nicaragua and
eastern Honduras within the hurricane warning area late Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150
km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is expected during the
next 36 hours, and Iota is forecast to be an extremely dangerous
category 4 hurricane when it approaches Central America.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Friday morning:

Honduras, northern Nicaragua, Guatemala, southern Belize: 8 to 16
inches (200 to 400 mm). Isolated maximum totals of 20-30 inches (500
to 750 mm) will be possible, especially from northeast Nicaragua
into northern Honduras.

Costa Rica and Panama: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated
maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm).

This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

El Salvador and southern Nicaragua: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm),
with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm).

Northern Colombia: An additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm), with
isolated maximum totals near 12 inches (300 mm).

WIND: Potentially catastrophic wind damage is expected where Iota's
eyewall moves onshore within the Hurricane Warning in Nicaragua
and Honduras area beginning late Monday with tropical storm
conditions beginning Monday morning. Hurricane conditions are
expected on the island of Providencia by late tonight with tropical
storm conditions expected beginning this evening. Tropical storm
conditions are expected to begin on the island of San Andres this
evening with hurricane conditions possible there early Monday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning
area in Nicaragua by late Monday and in the warning area in Honduras
by Monday night.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect portions of the coast of
Colombia, and the southern coasts of Hispaniola and Jamaica during
the next day or two. Swells will begin to reach the coasts of
Nicaragua and Honduras tonight and Monday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-11-15 14:39


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 151436
TCDAT1

Hurricane Iota Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
1000 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

Iota continues to rapidly strengthen. The hurricane has an
impressive appearance in visible satellite imagery with a very
symmetric Central Dense Overcast and excellent banding features in
all quadrants. The outflow has become well established and recent
microwave satellite imagery has shown a 37-GHz eye feature and a
mid-level eye that was not quite closed. A TAFB Dvorak
classification of T4.5 was the basis for the 75-kt 1200 UTC
analyzed intensity, and with the continued improvement in structure
the advisory wind speed is set at 80 kt. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently en route to the storm.

Iota is located within an extremely conducive environment for
strengthening. The upper-level wind pattern is forecast to remain
quite favorable while the storm crosses sea surface temperatures of
28.5-29 degrees C. As a result, continued rapid strengthening is
expected during the next 24 to 36 hours, and Iota is forecast to
become a potentially catastrophic category 4 hurricane before it
reaches the coast of northeastern Nicaragua or eastern Honduras.
A difficult-to-predict eyewall replacement cycle could cause the
intensity to begin to level off when Iota nears the coast. The new
NHC intensity forecast calls for continued rapid strengthening and
is in good agreement with the SHIPS and HFIP corrected consensus
models. After landfall, rapid weakening should occur as Iota moves
over the mountainous terrain of Central America.

The hurricane has begun moving faster toward the west-northwest,
with a long-term motion estimate of 285/8 kt. The steering currents
ahead of Iota are well established as a strong mid-level ridge
is located over the western Atlantic and Florida. This should keep
Iota on a westward to west-northwestward heading through landfall.
After landfall, a westward to west-southwestward track is
anticipated. The global models are in good agreement on this
scenario and the updated NHC track forecast is only adjusted a
little north of the previous track to be closer to the latest
multi-model consensus aids.

Key Messages:

1. Iota is expected to continue to rapidly intensify and be an
extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane when it approaches the
coast of Central America on Monday. Potentially catastrophic
winds and a life-threatening storm surge are expected along portions
of the coast of northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras where a
hurricane warning is in effect.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected and storm surge impacts
are possible on Providencia tonight and Monday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible by
this evening on San Andres.

3. Through Thursday, heavy rainfall from Iota will likely lead to
life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions
of northern Colombia and Central America. Flooding and mudslides in
Honduras and Nicaragua could be exacerbated by Hurricane Eta?--s
recent effects there, resulting in significant to potentially
catastrophic impacts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 13.3N 78.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 13.8N 79.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 14.2N 81.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 14.4N 82.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 14.5N 84.3W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND
60H 18/0000Z 14.4N 85.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 18/1200Z 14.3N 86.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 19/1200Z 13.8N 89.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-11-15 14:38


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 151436
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Iota Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
1000 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...IOTA EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO BRING POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC WINDS, A
LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND EXTREME RAINFALL IMPACTS TO CENTRAL
AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 78.5W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM E OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Providencia
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi
* The coast of northeastern Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* San Andres

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres
* The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Bluefields
* The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca to Punta
Castilla

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of Iota.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Iota was located
near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 78.5 West. Iota is moving toward
the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A westward
to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next day or so
until landfall occurs. After landfall, a westward to
west-southwestward motion is forecast. On the forecast track,
the core of Iota will move across the southwestern Caribbean Sea
today, pass near or just north of Providencia island on
Monday, and approach the coasts of northeastern Nicaragua and
eastern Honduras within the hurricane warning area late Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150
km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is expected during the
next 36 hours, and Iota is forecast to be an extremely dangerous
category 4 hurricane when it approaches Central America.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Friday morning:

Honduras, northern Nicaragua, Guatemala, southern Belize: 8 to 16
inches (200 to 400 mm). Isolated maximum totals of 20-30 inches (500
to 750 mm) will be possible, especially from northeast Nicaragua
into northern Honduras.

Costa Rica and Panama: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated
maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm).

This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

El Salvador and southern Nicaragua: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm),
with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm).

Northern Colombia: An additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm), with
isolated maximum totals near 12 inches (300 mm).

WIND: Potentially catastrophic wind damage is expected where Eta's
eyewall moves onshore within the Hurricane Warning in Nicaragua
and Honduras area beginning late Monday with tropical storm
conditions beginning Monday morning. Hurricane conditions are
expected on the island of Providencia by late tonight with tropical
storm conditions expected beginning this evening. Tropical storm
conditions are expected to begin on the island of San Andres this
evening with hurricane conditions possible there early Monday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning
area in Nicaragua by late Monday and in the warning area in Honduras
by Monday night.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect portions of the coast of
Colombia, and the southern coasts of Hispaniola and Jamaica during
the next day or two. Swells will begin to reach the coasts of
Nicaragua and Honduras tonight and Monday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-11-15 14:37


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 151435
TCMAT1

HURRICANE IOTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020
1500 UTC SUN NOV 15 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PROVIDENCIA
* THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO
SANDY BAY SIRPI
* THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN ANDRES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN ANDRES
* THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM SOUTH OF SANDY BAY SIRPI TO BLUEFIELDS
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA TO PUNTA
CASTILLA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF IOTA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 78.5W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 60SE 75SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 78.5W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 78.1W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 13.8N 79.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 14.2N 81.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.4N 82.9W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.5N 84.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 14.4N 85.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.3N 86.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 13.8N 89.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 78.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 15/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2020-11-15 11:49


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 151147
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Iota Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
700 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...IOTA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN...
...EXPECTED TO BRING POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC WINDS, A
LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, AND RAINFALL IMPACTS TO CENTRAL
AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 77.8W
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM E OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA
ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Providencia
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi
* The coast of northeastern Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* San Andres

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres
* The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Bluefields
* The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca to Punta
Castilla

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of Iota.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM EST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Iota was located
near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 77.8 West. Iota is moving toward
the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days
until landfall occurs in Central America. On the forecast track,
Iota will move across the southwestern Caribbean Sea today, pass
near or over Providencia island on Monday, and approach the coasts
of Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is expected during the next
day or two, and Iota is forecast to be a major hurricane when it
approaches Central America.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90
miles (150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Thursday:

Honduras, northern Nicaragua, Guatemala, southern Belize: 8 to 16
inches (200 to 400 mm). Isolated maximum totals of 20-30 inches (500
to 750 mm) will be possible, especially from northeast Nicaragua
into northern Honduras.

Costa Rica, Panama, and northern Colombia: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200
mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm).

This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

El Salvador and southern Nicaragua: 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm),
with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches (200 mm).

Jamaica: 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm).

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on the island of
Providencia by late tonight with tropical storm conditions
expected beginning this evening. Hurricane conditions are
expected within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua and
Honduras by late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to
begin on the island of San Andres this afternoon or evening with
hurricane conditions possible there tonight or early Monday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area in Nicaragua by late Monday and in the warning area in
Honduras by Monday night.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 9 to 13 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds along the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras. Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect portions of the coast of
Colombia, and the southern coasts of Hispaniola and Jamaica during
the next day or two. Swells will begin to reach the coasts of
Nicaragua and Honduras tonight and Monday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Blake

>

2020-11-15 08:54


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 150851
TCDAT1

Hurricane Iota Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
400 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

Iota has continued to rapidly intensify, strengthening 35 kt during
the past 24 hours. Deep convection has increased in vertical depth
and has also expanded, producing a symmetrical Central Dense
Overcast (CDO) with a large area of cloud tops colder than -80C
surrounding the center. Upper-level outflow has also improved in all
quadrants as the deep-layer vertical wind shear has finally abated.
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance investigating Iota early this
morning measured a peak 700-mb flight-level wind speed of 76 kt on
its outbound leg, which equates to about a 68-kt equivalent surface
wind speed. The second center dropsonde pressure was 987 mb with a
21-kt surface wind, which equals about 985 mb, a pressure drop of 4
mb in a little more than an hour. Based on these data, the intensity
has been increased to 70 kt for this advisory.

Iota has recently wobbled to the northwest, but the best motion
estimate is 280/05 kt. An expansive ridge extending westward from
the Atlantic across Florida and over the Gulf of Mexico will keep
Iota moving in a westward to west-northwestward motion for the next
few days, resulting in a Central America landfall in about 48 hours,
close to where former Hurricane Eta made landfall earlier this
month. As low-level ridging increases southward across the Gulf of
Mexico on days 3 and 4, Iota is expected to move westward farther
inland over Central America and dissipate by day 5. The new NHC
model guidance remains in good agreement on this developing track
scenario. The new official track forecast is a little north of the
previous advisory track, primarily due to the more northward initial
position, and lies along the southern edge of the guidance between
the consensus models TVCN, NOAA-HCCA, and FSSE.

The atmospheric and oceanic conditions are expected to be very
conducive for continued rapid strengthening, characterized by low
shear less than 5 kt, moist mid-tropospheric air, and sea-surface
temperatures of 28.5-29.0 deg C. Therefore, rapid intensification is
explicitly forecast for the next 48 hours, with Iota expected to
become a category 4 hurricane before it reaches central America. The
official intensity forecast is very similar to the bulk of the
intensity guidance, but lies a little below the Decay-SHIPS and LGEM
models, which bring Iota to 120-125 kt just prior to landfall. The
slightly lower intensity is due to the warm water east of Nicaragua
becoming a more shallow, which could result in some cold some
upwelling, plus a possible eyewall replacement cycle (ERC)
occurring. After Iota moves inland, rapid weakening is forecast as
the hurricane moves over the rugged terrain of Nicaragua and
southern Honduras. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to a
blend of the IVCN, HCCA, and FSSE consensus models.


Key Messages:

1. Iota is expected to rapidly intensify and be a major hurricane
when it approaches the coast of Central America. A Hurricane
Warning has been issued for portions of the coast of Nicaragua and
Honduras, and hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge are
expected there beginning Monday.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected and storm surge impacts
are possible on Providencia beginning late Sunday night. Tropical
storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are
possible by Sunday evening on San Andres.

3. Through Thursday, heavy rainfall from Iota will likely lead to
life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions
of northern Colombia and Central America. Flooding and mudslides in
Honduras and Nicaragua could be exacerbated by Hurricane Eta?--s
recent effects there, resulting in significant to potentially
catastrophic impacts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 13.1N 77.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 13.4N 78.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 13.7N 80.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 14.1N 81.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 14.3N 83.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 17/1800Z 14.3N 84.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
72H 18/0600Z 14.2N 85.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 19/0600Z 13.9N 88.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
120H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-11-15 08:44


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 150842
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Iota Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
400 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...IOTA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN INTO A MAJOR
HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 77.3W
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM E OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA
ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Providencia
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi
* The coast of northeastern Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* San Andres

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres
* The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Bluefields
* The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca to Punta
Castilla

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of Iota.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Iota was located
by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 13.1
North, longitude 77.3 West. Iota is moving toward the west near 6
mph (9 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected
during the next few days until landfall occurs in Central America.
On the forecast track, Iota will move across the southwestern
Caribbean Sea today, pass near or over Providencia island on Monday,
and approach the coasts of Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras
Monday night.

Reports from the aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid
strengthening is expected during the next day or two, and Iota is
forecast to be a major hurricane when it approaches Central America.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The latest data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the
minimum central pressure is estimated to be 985 mb (29.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Thursday:

Honduras, northern Nicaragua, Guatemala, southern Belize: 8 to 16
inches (200 to 400 mm). Isolated maximum totals of 20-30 inches (500
to 750 mm) will be possible, especially from northeast Nicaragua
into northern Honduras.

Costa Rica, Panama, and northern Colombia: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200
mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm).

This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

El Salvador and southern Nicaragua: 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm),
with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches (200 mm).

Jamaica: 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm).

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on the island of
Providencia by late tonight with tropical storm conditions
expected beginning this evening. Hurricane conditions are
expected within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua and
Honduras by late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to
begin on the island of San Andres this afternoon or evening with
hurricane conditions possible there tonight or early Monday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area in Nicaragua by late Monday and in the warning area in
Honduras by Monday night.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 9 to 13 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds along the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras. Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect portions of the coast of
Colombia, and the southern coasts of Hispaniola and Jamaica during
the next day or two. Swells will begin to reach the coasts of
Nicaragua and Honduras on Monday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-11-15 08:44


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 150841
TCMAT1

HURRICANE IOTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020
0900 UTC SUN NOV 15 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PROVIDENCIA
* THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO
SANDY BAY SIRPI
* THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN ANDRES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN ANDRES
* THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM SOUTH OF SANDY BAY SIRPI TO BLUEFIELDS
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA TO PUNTA
CASTILLA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF IOTA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 77.3W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 45SE 45SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 77.3W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 77.0W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 13.4N 78.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 13.7N 80.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 14.1N 81.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.3N 83.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 14.3N 84.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 14.2N 85.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 40SE 0SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 13.9N 88.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 77.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 15/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2020-11-15 05:57


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 150555
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Iota Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
100 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS IOTA HAS STRENGTHENED INTO THE
THIRTEENTH HURRICANE OF THE 2020 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...
...IOTA EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE AS
APPROACHES CENTRAL AMERICA....


SUMMARY OF 100 AM EST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 77.0W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM E OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA
ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Providencia
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi
* The coast of northeastern Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* San Andres

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres
* The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Bluefields
* The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca to Punta
Castilla

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of Iota.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM EST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Iota was located
by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 13.0
North, longitude 77.0 West. Iota is moving toward the west near 5
mph (7 km/h). A general westward motion is expected during the next
few days. On the forecast track, Iota will move across the southwest
Caribbean Sea today, pass near or over Providencia island on Monday,
and approach the coasts of Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras
Monday evening.

Reports from the aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds
have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid
strengthening is expected during the next day or two, and Iota is
forecast to be a major hurricane when it approaches Central America.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The latest data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the
minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Thursday:

Honduras, northern Nicaragua, eastern Guatemala, southern Belize: 8
to 16 inches (200 to 400 mm). Isolated maximum totals of 20-30
inches (500 to 750 mm) will be possible, especially from northeast
Nicaragua into northern Honduras.

Costa Rica, Panama, and northern Colombia: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200
mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm).

This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

El Salvador, southern Nicaragua and southern Honduras: 2 to 4 inches
(50 to 100 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches (150 mm).

Jamaica: 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm).

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on the island of
Providencia by late Sunday night with tropical storm conditions
expected beginning Sunday evening. Hurricane conditions are
expected within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua and
Honduras by late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to
begin on the island of San Andres late Sunday or Sunday night with
hurricane conditions possible there Sunday night or early Monday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area in Nicaragua by late Monday and in the warning area in
Honduras by Monday night.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 9 to 13 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds along the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras. Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect portions of the coast of
Colombia, and the southern coasts of Hispaniola and Jamaica during
the next day or two. Swells will begin to reach the coasts of
Nicaragua and Honduras on Monday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-11-15 04:00


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 150359

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 15.11.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.2N 107.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP982020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.11.2020 0 13.2N 107.5W 1009 19
1200UTC 15.11.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM THETA ANALYSED POSITION : 31.4N 18.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL302020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.11.2020 0 31.4N 18.9W 1005 33
1200UTC 15.11.2020 12 31.2N 18.1W 1011 28
0000UTC 16.11.2020 24 32.0N 17.6W 1015 24
1200UTC 16.11.2020 36 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM IOTA ANALYSED POSITION : 12.5N 76.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL312020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.11.2020 0 12.5N 76.6W 1002 32
1200UTC 15.11.2020 12 13.0N 77.8W 997 42
0000UTC 16.11.2020 24 13.2N 79.6W 991 46
1200UTC 16.11.2020 36 13.3N 81.5W 984 50
0000UTC 17.11.2020 48 13.8N 83.0W 969 69
1200UTC 17.11.2020 60 14.2N 84.6W 989 42
0000UTC 18.11.2020 72 14.5N 86.4W 1001 41
1200UTC 18.11.2020 84 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 11.1N 119.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 16.11.2020 36 11.1N 118.8W 1008 22
0000UTC 17.11.2020 48 11.3N 118.6W 1008 21
1200UTC 17.11.2020 60 11.4N 118.8W 1008 24
0000UTC 18.11.2020 72 11.7N 119.1W 1007 26
1200UTC 18.11.2020 84 12.4N 119.7W 1008 24
0000UTC 19.11.2020 96 13.1N 120.3W 1008 24
1200UTC 19.11.2020 108 14.0N 121.2W 1009 23
0000UTC 20.11.2020 120 14.7N 122.1W 1008 22
1200UTC 20.11.2020 132 14.6N 123.5W 1010 23
0000UTC 21.11.2020 144 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 15.8N 110.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.11.2020 60 16.2N 112.0W 1008 25
0000UTC 18.11.2020 72 17.2N 113.6W 1005 32
1200UTC 18.11.2020 84 18.4N 116.0W 1003 36
0000UTC 19.11.2020 96 19.5N 117.9W 1005 37
1200UTC 19.11.2020 108 20.9N 119.7W 1009 31
0000UTC 20.11.2020 120 21.9N 121.6W 1011 22
1200UTC 20.11.2020 132 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 9.5N 125.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.11.2020 84 9.5N 125.5W 1009 24
0000UTC 19.11.2020 96 9.9N 126.2W 1008 24
1200UTC 19.11.2020 108 10.5N 127.0W 1010 23
0000UTC 20.11.2020 120 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 150358

>

2020-11-15 04:00


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 150358

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 15.11.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.2N 107.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP982020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 15.11.2020 13.2N 107.5W WEAK
12UTC 15.11.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM THETA ANALYSED POSITION : 31.4N 18.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL302020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 15.11.2020 31.4N 18.9W WEAK
12UTC 15.11.2020 31.2N 18.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 16.11.2020 32.0N 17.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 16.11.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM IOTA ANALYSED POSITION : 12.5N 76.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL312020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 15.11.2020 12.5N 76.6W WEAK
12UTC 15.11.2020 13.0N 77.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 16.11.2020 13.2N 79.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 16.11.2020 13.3N 81.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 17.11.2020 13.8N 83.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 17.11.2020 14.2N 84.6W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 18.11.2020 14.5N 86.4W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 18.11.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 11.1N 119.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 16.11.2020 11.1N 118.8W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 17.11.2020 11.3N 118.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.11.2020 11.4N 118.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.11.2020 11.7N 119.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.11.2020 12.4N 119.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.11.2020 13.1N 120.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.11.2020 14.0N 121.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.11.2020 14.7N 122.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.11.2020 14.6N 123.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.11.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 15.8N 110.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 17.11.2020 16.2N 112.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.11.2020 17.2N 113.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.11.2020 18.4N 116.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.11.2020 19.5N 117.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.11.2020 20.9N 119.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 20.11.2020 21.9N 121.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.11.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 9.5N 125.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 18.11.2020 9.5N 125.5W WEAK
00UTC 19.11.2020 9.9N 126.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.11.2020 10.5N 127.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.11.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 150358

>

2020-11-15 02:34


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 150232
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Iota Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
1000 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2020

Iota continues to strengthen. Deep convection has been increasing
in coverage and intensity near the center, and microwave images
indicate that the inner core is becoming better defined. The Dvorak
classifications at 00Z supported an intensity of 55 kt, and since
the thunderstorms continue to organize, the initial wind speed is
set a little higher to 60 kt. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters will
be investigating Iota overnight.

Iota has slowed a little and has now turned westward, with the
latest initial motion estimated to be 270/4 kt. A ridge over Florida
and the western Atlantic is expected to remain to the north of Iota.
This high pressure system, and another ridge over Mexico and the
western Gulf, should steer the storm westward to west-northwestward
during the next couple of days and then westward to
west-southwestward after that. This motion should take the core of
Iota to the coast of Nicaragua Monday night. The models are in good
agreement, and the NHC track forecast is largely an update of the
previous one.

The atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear quite favorable for
Iota to continue strengthening until it reaches the coast in a
little more than 2 days. Since the storm appears to be developing
an inner core, rapid strengthening during the next couple of days
seems likely. All of the intensity models show a significant amount
of strengthening before landfall, and are higher than the previous
cycle. Based on the latest guidance and favorable conditions, the
NHC intensity forecast is above the previous one and shows Iota
becoming a hurricane soon and a major hurricane in 36 hours. After
Iota moves inland, rapid weakening is forecast as the cyclone moves
over the rugged terrain of Nicaragua and southern Honduras. The NHC
forecast lies close to the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids.


Key Messages:

1. Iota is expected to intensify and be a major hurricane when it
approaches the coast of Central America. A Hurricane Warning has
been issued for portions of the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras,
and hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected
there beginning Monday.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected and storm surge impacts
are possible on Providencia beginning late Sunday night. Tropical
storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are
possible by Sunday evening on San Andres.

3. Through Thursday, heavy rainfall from Iota will likely lead to
life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions
of Central America. Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua
could be exacerbated by Hurricane Eta?--s recent effects there,
resulting in significant impacts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 12.7N 77.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 12.9N 77.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 13.3N 79.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 13.7N 81.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 14.0N 82.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 17/1200Z 14.1N 84.0W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND
72H 18/0000Z 14.0N 85.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
96H 19/0000Z 13.6N 87.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2020-11-14 23:33


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 142331
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Iota Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
700 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2020

...IOTA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN...
...RISK OF DANGEROUS WINDS, STORM SURGE, AND RAINFALL IMPACTS IN
CENTRAL AMERICA BEGINNING MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.6N 76.9W
ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Providencia

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi
* The coast of northeastern Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border
* San Andres

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca to Punta
Castilla

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of Iota.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iota was
located near latitude 12.6 North, longitude 76.9 West. Iota is
moving toward the west-southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A westward
motion with some increase in forward speed is expected to begin very
soon and continue through Monday night. On the forecast track, Iota
will move across the southwest Caribbean Sea tonight and Sunday,
pass near or over Providencia island on Monday and approach the
coasts of Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras Monday afternoon or
evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is expected during the next
day or two, and Iota is forecast to be at or near major hurricane
strength when it approaches Central America.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Thursday:

Honduras, northern Nicaragua, eastern Guatemala, southern Belize: 8
to 16 inches (200 to 400 mm). Isolated maximum totals of 20-30
inches (500 to 750 mm) will be possible, especially from northeast
Nicaragua into northern Honduras.

Costa Rica, Panama, and northern Colombia: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200
mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm).

This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

El Salvador, southern Nicaragua and southern Honduras: 2 to 4 inches
(50 to 100 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches (150 mm).

Jamaica: 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm)

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on the island of
Providencia by late Sunday night with tropical storm conditions
expected beginning Sunday evening. Hurricane conditions are
possible within the Hurricane Watch area in Nicaragua and
Honduras by late Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible by
Monday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin
on the island of San Andres late Sunday or Sunday night with
hurricane conditions possible there Sunday night or early Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect portions of the coast of
Colombia, and the southern coasts of Hispaniola and Jamaica during
the next day or two. Swells will begin to reach the coasts of
Nicaragua and Honduras on Monday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2020-11-14 21:13


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 142110 CCA
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Iota Discussion Number 6...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
400 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2020

Corrected the numbering of the Key Messages and a typo in first
paragraph

Deep convection has re-developed closer to the low-level center of
Iota during the afternoon, and there has been an increase in banding
over the southeastern portion of the circulation. Data from an Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that has flown an unusually
long mission from its base in Biloxi, Mississippi, indicate that the
increase in organization has resulted in strengthening. The plane
measured peak 925-mb flight-level winds of 55 kt, and SFMR winds of
46 kt. Those were the basis for the increase in wind speed on the
1800 UTC intermediate advisory. Given the continued increase in
organization, the initial intensity has been set at 50 kt for this
advisory. The aircraft reported that the minimum pressure had
fallen to around 995 mb during its final pass through the center.

The aircraft data indicate that Iota has not developed a tight
inner core yet, but with the increase in convection closer to the
center, and with the storm moving away from the coast of
northwestern Colombia, it is likely Iota will begin to strengthen
at a faster rate by Sunday. The upper-level wind pattern is
forecast to become quite favorable while the storm traverses SSTs of
around 29C. These conditions are likely to result in steady to
rapid strengthening over the next couple of days and the NHC
intensity forecast again predicts that Iota will be at or near
major hurricane strength when it nears the coast of Central America.
The SHIPS model is explicitly forecasting rapid intensification (a
30-kt increase in wind speed) over each of the next 24 h periods,
and the NHC intensity forecast is quite similar, and is also in
good agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus aid.

Satellite imagery and the aircraft fixes show that Iota has
continued to move west-southwestward today. A mid-level ridge over
the Gulf of Mexico and Florida should build eastward over the
western Atlantic during the next day or two. This should allow
Iota to move westward to west-northwestward at a slightly faster
forward speed, with this motion bringing the storm near the
coast of northeastern Nicaragua or Honduras by late Monday. After
landfall, a west-southwestward motion is expected to take the
center of Iota inland over Central America. The track guidance has
again shifted southward, partially due to the more southward
initial position once again. This has resulted in another
southward shift in the NHC track forecast, which is again near the
TVCA multi-model consensus.

The latest track forecast necessitates the issuance of a Hurricane
Warning for Providencia island, and Hurricane Watches were issued
earlier this afternoon for portions of the coasts of Nicaragua and
Honduras. In addition to the wind and storm surge threats, Iota is
likely to bring heavy rainfall and flooding to portions of Central
America that are still recovering from Hurricane Eta's impacts.


Key Messages:

1. Iota is expected to intensify and be at or near major hurricane
strength when it approaches the coast of Central America. There is
a risk of damaging wind and a dangerous storm surge across portions
of Nicaragua and Honduras beginning Monday, and a Hurricane Watch
is in effect for a portion of that area.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected and storm surge impacts
are possible on Providencia beginning late Sunday night. Tropical
storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are
possible by Sunday evening on San Andres.

3. Through Thursday, heavy rainfall from Iota will likely lead to
life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions
of northern Colombia and Central America. Flooding and mudslides in
Honduras and Nicaragua could be exacerbated by Hurricane Eta?--s
recent effects there, resulting in significant impacts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 12.6N 76.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 12.7N 77.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 13.0N 78.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 13.4N 80.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 13.8N 82.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 17/0600Z 14.0N 83.5W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND
72H 17/1800Z 14.0N 85.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
96H 18/1800Z 13.6N 87.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-11-14 20:57


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 142055
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Iota Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
400 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2020

Deep convection has re-developed closer to the low-level center of
Iota during the afternoon, and there has been an increase in
banding over the southeastern portion of the circulation. Data
from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that has flown an
usually long mission from its base in Biloxi, Mississippi, indicate
that the increase in organization has resulted in strengthening.
The plane measured peak 925-mb flight-level winds of 55 kt, and SFMR
winds of 46 kt. Those were the basis for the increase in wind speed
on the 1800 UTC intermediate advisory. Given the continued
increase in organization, the initial intensity has been set at 50
kt for this advisory. The aircraft reported that the minimum
pressure had fallen to around 995 mb during its final pass
through the center.

The aircraft data indicate that Iota has not developed a tight
inner core yet, but with the increase in convection closer to the
center, and with the storm moving away from the coast of
northwestern Colombia, it is likely Iota will begin to strengthen
at a faster rate by Sunday. The upper-level wind pattern is
forecast to become quite favorable while the storm traverses SSTs of
around 29C. These conditions are likely to result in steady to
rapid strengthening over the next couple of days and the NHC
intensity forecast again predicts that Iota will be at or near
major hurricane strength when it nears the coast of Central America.
The SHIPS model is explicitly forecasting rapid intensification (a
30-kt increase in wind speed) over each of the next 24 h periods,
and the NHC intensity forecast is quite similar, and is also in
good agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus aid.

Satellite imagery and the aircraft fixes show that Iota has
continued to move west-southwestward today. A mid-level ridge over
the Gulf of Mexico and Florida should build eastward over the
western Atlantic during the next day or two. This should allow
Iota to move westward to west-northwestward at a slightly faster
forward speed, with this motion bringing the storm near the
coast of northeastern Nicaragua or Honduras by late Monday. After
landfall, a west-southwestward motion is expected to take the
center of Iota inland over Central America. The track guidance has
again shifted southward, partially due to the more southward
initial position once again. This has resulted in another
southward shift in the NHC track forecast, which is again near the
TVCA multi-model consensus.

The latest track forecast necessitates the issuance of a Hurricane
Warning for Providencia island, and Hurricane Watches were issued
earlier this afternoon for portions of the coasts of Nicaragua and
Honduras. In addition to the wind and storm surge threats, Iota is
likely to bring heavy rainfall and flooding to portions of Central
America that are still recovering from Hurricane Eta's impacts.


Key Messages:

1. Iota is expected to intensify and be at or near major hurricane
strength when it approaches the coast of Central America. There is
a risk of damaging wind and a dangerous storm surge across portions
of Nicaragua and Honduras beginning Monday, and a Hurricane Watch
is in effect for a portion of that area.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected and storm surge impacts
are possible on Providencia beginning late Sunday night. Tropical
storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are
possible by Sunday evening on San Andres.

2. Through Thursday, heavy rainfall from Iota will likely lead to
life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions
of northern Colombia and Central America. Flooding and mudslides in
Honduras and Nicaragua could be exacerbated by Hurricane Eta?--s
recent effects there, resulting in significant impacts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 12.6N 76.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 12.7N 77.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 13.0N 78.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 13.4N 80.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 13.8N 82.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 17/0600Z 14.0N 83.5W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND
72H 17/1800Z 14.0N 85.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
96H 18/1800Z 13.6N 87.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-11-14 20:56


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 142054
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Iota Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
400 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2020

...IOTA STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...RISK OF DANGEROUS WINDS, STORM SURGE, AND RAINFALL IMPACTS IN
CENTRAL AMERICA BEGINNING MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.6N 76.5W
ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Colombia has issued a Hurricane Warning for
the island of Providencia, and a Hurricane Watch for the island of
San Andres.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Providencia

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi
* The coast of northeastern Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border
* San Andres

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca to Punta
Castilla

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of Iota.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iota was
located near latitude 12.6 North, longitude 76.5 West. Iota is
moving toward the west-southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A westward
motion with some increase in forward speed is expected to begin
very soon and continue through Monday night. On the forecast
track, Iota will move across the southwest Caribbean Sea tonight
and Sunday, pass near or over Providencia island on Monday and
approach the coasts of Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras
Monday afternoon or evening.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95
km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is
expected during the next day or two, and Iota is forecast to be at
or near major hurricane strength when it approaches Central
America.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft data is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Thursday:

Honduras, northern Nicaragua, eastern Guatemala, southern Belize: 8
to 16 inches (200 to 400 mm). Isolated maximum totals of 20-30
inches (500 to 750 mm) will be possible, especially from northeast
Nicaragua into northern Honduras.

Costa Rica, Panama, and northern Colombia: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200
mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm).

This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

El Salvador, southern Nicaragua and southern Honduras: 2 to 4 inches
(50 to 100 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches (150 mm).

Jamaica: 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm)

Wind: Hurricane conditions are expected on the island of
Providencia by late Sunday night with tropical storm conditions
expected beginning Sunday evening. Hurricane conditions are
possible within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua and
Honduras by late Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible by
Monday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin
on the island of San Andres late Sunday or Sunday night with
hurricane conditions possible Sunday night or early Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect portions of the coast of
Colombia, and the southern coasts of Hispaniola and Jamaica during
the next day or two. Swells will begin to reach the coasts of
Nicaragua and Honduras on Monday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-11-14 20:56


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 142054
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM IOTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020
2100 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR
THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA...AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE ISLAND OF
SAN ANDRES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PROVIDENCIA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO
SANDY BAY SIRPI
* THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER
* SAN ANDRES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN ANDRES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA TO PUNTA
CASTILLA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF IOTA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 76.5W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 76.5W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 76.4W

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 12.7N 77.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 13.0N 78.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 13.4N 80.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 13.8N 82.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.0N 83.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 14.0N 85.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 13.6N 87.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.6N 76.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 15/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2020-11-14 18:00


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 141758
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Iota Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
100 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2020

...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS IOTA A LITTLE
STRONGER...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PROVIDENCIA ISLAND AND PORTIONS OF
THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.6N 76.4W
ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Nicaragua has issued a Hurricane Watch from Sandy
Bay Sirpi northward to the Honduras/Nicaragua border.

The government of Honduras has issued a Hurricane Watch from the
Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Punta Patuca. A Tropical
Storm Watch has been issued from west of Punta Patuca westward to
Punta Castilla.

The government of Colombia has issued a Hurricane Watch for the
island of Providencia.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi
* The coast of northeastern Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border
* Providencia

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres
* Providencia

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca to Punta
Castilla

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of Iota.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM EST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iota was
located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near
latitude 12.6 North, longitude 76.4 West. Iota is moving toward the
west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A westward motion with some
increase in forward speed is expected to begin later today and
continue through Monday. On the forecast track, Iota will move
across the southwest Caribbean Sea during the next day or
so, and approach the coasts of Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras
on Monday.

Preliminary data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 50
mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is
likely to begin tonight or Sunday, and Iota is forecast to be at or
near major hurricane strength when it approaches Central America.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Thursday:

Honduras, northern Nicaragua, eastern Guatemala, southern Belize: 8
to 16 inches (200 to 400 mm). Isolated maximum totals of 20-30
inches (500 to 750 mm) will be possible, especially from northeast
Nicaragua into northern Honduras.

Costa Rica, Panama, and northern Colombia: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200
mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm).

This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

El Salvador, southern Nicaragua and southern Honduras: 2 to 4 inches
(50 to 100 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches (150 mm).

Jamaica: 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm)

Wind: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane
Warning area by late Monday, with tropical storm conditions
possible by Monday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin on the islands of San Andres and Providencia
late Sunday. Hurricane conditions are possible on Providencia by
Sunday night or early Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect portions of the coast of
Colombia, and the southern coasts of Hispaniola and Jamaica during
the next day or two. Swells will begin to reach the coasts of
Nicaragua and Honduras on Monday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-11-14 16:07


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 141605

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 14.11.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.2N 107.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP982020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.11.2020 0 13.2N 107.7W 1010 22
0000UTC 15.11.2020 12 13.3N 108.0W 1008 22
1200UTC 15.11.2020 24 13.3N 107.6W 1007 24
0000UTC 16.11.2020 36 13.6N 107.6W 1006 25
1200UTC 16.11.2020 48 14.3N 108.9W 1006 26
0000UTC 17.11.2020 60 15.3N 110.6W 1004 30
1200UTC 17.11.2020 72 16.6N 112.8W 998 43
0000UTC 18.11.2020 84 17.3N 114.9W 994 45
1200UTC 18.11.2020 96 18.3N 116.8W 1000 42
0000UTC 19.11.2020 108 19.5N 118.8W 1004 40
1200UTC 19.11.2020 120 20.8N 120.6W 1010 26
0000UTC 20.11.2020 132 21.3N 122.1W 1011 23
1200UTC 20.11.2020 144 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM THETA ANALYSED POSITION : 31.6N 20.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL302020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.11.2020 0 31.6N 20.6W 1001 32
0000UTC 15.11.2020 12 31.4N 18.8W 1006 34
1200UTC 15.11.2020 24 31.7N 17.8W 1012 27
0000UTC 16.11.2020 36 33.0N 16.6W 1016 22
1200UTC 16.11.2020 48 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM IOTA ANALYSED POSITION : 12.6N 76.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL312020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.11.2020 0 12.6N 76.0W 1006 26
0000UTC 15.11.2020 12 12.2N 76.5W 1004 30
1200UTC 15.11.2020 24 12.7N 77.4W 1000 40
0000UTC 16.11.2020 36 13.1N 79.5W 994 41
1200UTC 16.11.2020 48 13.5N 81.1W 988 48
0000UTC 17.11.2020 60 13.8N 82.5W 978 66
1200UTC 17.11.2020 72 14.5N 84.0W 982 44
0000UTC 18.11.2020 84 14.7N 85.8W 997 40
1200UTC 18.11.2020 96 13.4N 87.8W 1005 33
0000UTC 19.11.2020 108 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 10.6N 120.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.11.2020 24 10.6N 120.5W 1009 25
0000UTC 16.11.2020 36 10.6N 120.2W 1008 25
1200UTC 16.11.2020 48 10.6N 119.6W 1008 22
0000UTC 17.11.2020 60 10.8N 119.3W 1008 24
1200UTC 17.11.2020 72 11.1N 119.1W 1008 27
0000UTC 18.11.2020 84 11.7N 118.6W 1007 29
1200UTC 18.11.2020 96 12.9N 118.6W 1008 26
0000UTC 19.11.2020 108 13.9N 119.0W 1007 22
1200UTC 19.11.2020 120 14.8N 119.6W 1010 21
0000UTC 20.11.2020 132 15.0N 120.2W 1010 18
1200UTC 20.11.2020 144 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 141605

>

2020-11-14 15:00


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 141457
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Iota Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
1000 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2020

Recent microwave satellite imagery and early morning visible
pictures show that Iota remains a sheared tropical cyclone, with
the center located near the southwestern edge of the main
convective mass. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt and is
based on the earlier ASCAT data and recent satellite estimates. An
Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate Iota early this afternoon. Somewhat surprisingly Iota
has not strengthened much since yesterday, which appears to be the
result of some unexpected shear and its close proximity to the
northwest coast of Colombia. The global models predict that the
shear will relax soon, and that the system will be in quite
favorable conditions for strengthening. The NHC forecast again
calls for steady to rapid strengthening in the next 12-60 h once
the storm organizes enough to take advantage of the expected
favorable conditions. The updated NHC intensity is similar to the
previous forecast and shows Iota at or near major hurricane
strength when it approaches the coast of Central America.

Although the center of Iota was relocated to the south and west of
the earlier estimates, the long-term initial motion estimate is
255/4 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the
previous advisory. A mid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico
is expected to build eastward to the north of Iota during the
next day or two, and this feature should cause the cyclone to move
westward to west-northwestward at a faster forward speed during the
next few days. This should bring the center near the coast of
northeastern Nicaragua or Honduras in 2 to 3 days. After landfall,
a west-southwestward motion is expected with Iota moving inland
over Central America. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted
southward, especially in the first 24 to 36 hours due to the more
southward initial position. The NHC track lies close to the TVCA
multi-model consensus, which is between the lastest global model
interpolated trackers and the model fields.

Key Messages:

1. Iota is expected to strengthen and be at or near major
hurricane strength when it approaches the coast of Central America.
There is a risk of dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall
impacts across portions of Nicaragua and Honduras beginning Monday.
Hurricane Watches will likely be issued for a portion of this area
later today. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the islands
of San Andres and Providencia.

2. Through Thursday, heavy rainfall from Iota will likely lead to
life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions
of northern Colombia and Central America. Flooding and mudslides in
Honduras and Nicaragua could be exacerbated by Hurricane Eta?--s
recent effects there, resulting in significant impacts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 12.7N 76.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 12.9N 76.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 13.4N 78.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 13.9N 80.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 14.2N 81.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 17/0000Z 14.4N 83.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 14.5N 84.3W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
96H 18/1200Z 14.3N 86.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 19/1200Z 13.5N 90.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-11-14 14:59


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 141457
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Iota Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
1000 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2020

...IOTA REMAINS DISORGANIZED BUT STILL EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...
...RISK OF DANGEROUS WINDS, STORM SURGE, AND RAINFALL IMPACTS IN
CENTRAL AMERICA BEGINNING MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 76.2W
ABOUT 370 MI...590 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Colombia has issued a Tropical Storm warning for
the islands of San Andres and Providencia.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres
* Providencia

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of
Iota, and a Hurricane Watch will likely be issued later today for
portions of these countries.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iota was
located near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 76.2 West. Iota is
moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A westward
motion with some increase in forward speed is expected to begin
later today and continue through Monday. On the forecast track, Iota
will move across the central Caribbean Sea during the next day or
so, and approach the coasts of Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras
on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady to rapid strengthening is likely to begin tonight or
Sunday, and Iota is forecast to be at or near major hurricane
strength when it approaches Central America.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Thursday:

Honduras, northern Nicaragua, eastern Guatemala, southern Belize: 8
to 16 inches (200 to 400 mm). Isolated maximum totals of 20-30
inches (500 to 750 mm) will be possible, especially from northeast
Nicaragua into northern Honduras.

Costa Rica, Panama, and northern Colombia: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200
mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm).

This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

El Salvador, southern Nicaragua and southern Honduras: 2 to 4 inches
(50 to 100 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches (150 mm).

Jamaica: 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm)

Wind: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on the
islands of San Andres and Providencia late Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect portions of the coast of
Colombia, and the southern coasts of Hispaniola and Jamaica during
the next day or two. Swells will begin to reach the coasts of
Nicaragua and Honduras on Monday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-11-14 14:59


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 141457
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM IOTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020
1500 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN ANDRES
* PROVIDENCIA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
IOTA...AND A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR
PORTIONS OF THESE COUNTRIES.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 76.2W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 76.2W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 75.8W

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 12.9N 76.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 13.4N 78.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 13.9N 80.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 14.2N 81.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.4N 83.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.5N 84.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 14.3N 86.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 13.5N 90.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 76.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 14/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2020-11-14 08:41


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 140839
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Iota Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
400 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2020

Satellite imagery and scatterometer data received since the last
advisory indicate that Iota is a bit disorganized. The deep
convection is currently not concentrated near the center, and the
scatterometer wind data showed an elongated circulation with a
trough extending west-southwestward from the center. The
scatterometer data also showed maximum winds of 30-35 kt in the
northeastern quadrant, and based on this, the initial intensity is
held at 35 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate Iota at around 18Z.

Iota continues to move south of west with the initial motion of
245/4 kt. A mid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico should build
eastward to the north of Iota during the next day or two, and this
feature should cause the cyclone to move westward at a somewhat
faster forward speed through 72 h. This motion is expected to
bring the center near or over the coasts of Nicaragua or Honduras
near the 72-h point. After that time, a west-southwestward motion
is forecast, with the center of the cyclone moving across portions
of Central America. The new forecast track is similar to, but
slightly slower than, the previous forecast, and it lies in the
center of the guidance envelope near the various consensus models.

Iota is currently experiencing light westerly wind shear produced by
an upper-level trough to the west. The shear should subside over
the next 12-24 h as the trough moves westward and dissipates,
leaving the cyclone in more favorable upper-level winds and over sea
surface temperatures near 29C. Thus, conditions appear conducive
for steady to rapid intensification once the storm becomes well
enough organized internally to take advantage of the favorable
environment. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous
one, and calls for rapid intensification to major hurricane
intensity, with a peak intensity of near 105 kt as the system makes
landfall in Central America. It should be noted that the HWRF and
HMON forecast the center to go north of the official forecast track
and keep it over water north of Honduras. As a result, they
forecast a stronger cyclone than indciated by the official forecast.


Key Messages:

1. Iota is expected to strengthen and be a major hurricane when it
approaches the coast of Central America. There is a risk of
dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts across portions
of Nicaragua and Honduras beginning Monday. Hurricane Watches will
likely be issued for a portion of this area later today.

2. Through Wednesday, heavy rainfall from Iota will likely lead to
life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions
of northern Colombia and Central America. Flooding and mudslides
in Honduras and Nicaragua could be exacerbated by Hurricane Eta?--s
recent effects there, resulting in significant impacts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 13.5N 74.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 13.6N 75.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 13.9N 76.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 14.3N 78.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 14.5N 80.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 16/1800Z 14.8N 82.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 14.9N 83.3W 105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND
96H 18/0600Z 14.5N 86.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
120H 19/0600Z 14.0N 89.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-11-14 08:41


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 140838
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Iota Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
400 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2020

...IOTA MOVING SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN...
...RISK OF DANGEROUS WINDS, STORM SURGE, AND RAINFALL IMPACTS IN
CENTRAL AMERICA BEGINNING MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 74.8W
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 570 MI...920 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of
Iota, and a Hurricane Watch will likely be issued later today for
portions of these countries. Interests in San Andres and
Providencia should also monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iota was
located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 74.8 West. Iota is
moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A westward
motion with some increase in forward speed is expected to begin
later today and continue through Monday. On the forecast track, Iota
will move across the central Caribbean Sea during the next day or
so, and approach the coasts of Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras
on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady to rapid strengthening is likely over the weekend, and Iota
is forecast to be a major hurricane when it approaches Central
America.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
to the northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Honduras, northern Nicaragua, eastern Guatemala, southern Belize: 8
to 16 inches (200 to 400 mm). Isolated maximum totals of 20-30
inches (500 to 750 mm) will be possible, especially from northeast
Nicaragua into northern Honduras.

Costa Rica, Panama, and northern Colombia: 4 to 8 inches (100 to
200 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm).

This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

El Salvador and southern Nicaragua: 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm),
with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches (150 mm).

Jamaica: 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm).

SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect portions of the coast of
Colombia, and the southern coasts of Hispaniola and Jamaica during
the next day or two. Swells will begin to reach the coasts of
Nicaragua and Honduras on Monday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-11-14 08:40


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 140838
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM IOTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020
0900 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
IOTA...AND A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR
PORTIONS OF THESE COUNTRIES. INTERESTS IN SAN ANDRES AND
PROVIDENCIA SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 74.8W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 74.8W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 74.5W

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 13.6N 75.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 13.9N 76.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 14.3N 78.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 14.5N 80.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 14.8N 82.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.9N 83.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 60SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 14.5N 86.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 14.0N 89.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 74.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2020-11-14 02:42


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 140240
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Iota Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
1000 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2020

Satellite images show that Iota has changed little during the past
several hours. Deep convection is organized in fragmented bands
around the center, except in the northwestern quadrant where there
is a dry slot. All of the satellite intensity estimates are
around 35 kt, and therefore, the initial intensity is held at that
value.

Iota has been drifting to the south-southwest during the past
several hours, however, the steering currents are expected to become
more pronounced soon. A strong and sprawling mid-level ridge
currently centered over the Gulf of Mexico will shift eastward and
build to the north of the tropical cyclone. Since this ridging is
expected to remain well established to the north of Iota during the
next several days, a general westward motion is expected through the
forecast period. The NHC track forecast takes the core of Iota to
the Nicaragua and Honduras coasts in about 3 days. However,
conditions are expected to deteriorate along that part of the coast
before the center arrives. The latest models are in fairly good
agreement, except for the HWRF which is a northern outlier, and the
NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.
This forecast is a little slower than the previous one.

An upper-level trough to the west of Iota is expected to move west
and dissipate on Saturday. This should leave the storm in favorable
conditions of 29-30 C waters, and in an air mass of low wind shear
and high moisture this weekend and early next week. These
conditions support steady to possibly rapid intensification until
Iota makes landfall. The main question is how strong will Iota
become before it crosses the coast. The SHIPS Rapid Intensification
Index shows a 55 percent chance of Iota strengthening 65 kt or more
before it makes landfall, which is about 11 times the climatological
mean. The NHC intensity forecast is an update of the previous one,
and shows Iota strengthening to a major hurricane in about 60 hours.

Key Messages:

1. Iota is expected to strengthen and be a major hurricane when it
approaches the coast of Central America. There is a risk of
dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts across portions of
Nicaragua and Honduras beginning Monday. Hurricane Watches
will likely be issued for a portion of this area on Saturday.

2. Through Wednesday, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Iota will
likely lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding
across portions of northern Colombia and Central America. Flooding
and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua could be exacerbated by
Hurricane Eta's recent effects there.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 13.6N 74.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 13.5N 74.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 13.7N 76.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 14.0N 77.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 14.3N 79.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 16/1200Z 14.5N 81.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 14.7N 82.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 18/0000Z 14.8N 85.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
120H 19/0000Z 14.3N 88.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2020-11-14 02:42


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 140240
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Iota Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
1000 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2020

...IOTA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN...
...RISK OF DANGEROUS WINDS, STORM SURGE, AND RAINFALL IMPACTS IN
CENTRAL AMERICA BEGINNING MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 74.2W
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 200 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Nicaragua, Honduras should monitor the progress of
this system. A Hurricane Watch could be required for a portion of
that area on Saturday. Interests in San Andres and Providencia
should also monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iota was
located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 74.2 West. Iota is
moving toward the south-southwest near 3 mph (6 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue overnight. A westward motion at a
slightly faster forward speed is expected to begin by late Saturday
and continue through Monday. On the forecast track, Iota will move
across the central Caribbean Sea during the next day or so, and
approach the coasts of Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras on
Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady to rapid strengthening is likely over the weekend, and the
system is forecast to be a major hurricane when it approaches
Central America.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Across Honduras and northern Nicaragua: 8 to 16 inches or 200 to 400
mm, with isolated maximum totals of 20 inches or 500 mm.

Across Costa Rica, Panama, and northern Colombia, southern
Nicaragua, Belize, Guatemala, and El Salvador: 3 to 6 inches or 75
to 150 mm, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches or 250 mm.

This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain.

Across Jamaica and southern Haiti: 1 to 3 inches or 25 to 75 mm.

SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect portions of the coast of
Colombia, and the southern coasts of Hispaniola and Jamaica during
the next day or two. Swells will begin to reach the coasts of
Nicaragua and Honduras on Monday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2020-11-14 02:42


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 140240
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM IOTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020
0300 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN NICARAGUA...HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM. A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF
THAT AREA ON SATURDAY. INTERESTS IN SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA
SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 74.2W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 200 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 74.2W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 74.1W

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 13.5N 74.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 13.7N 76.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 14.0N 77.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 14.3N 79.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 14.5N 81.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.7N 82.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 60SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 14.8N 85.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 14.3N 88.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 74.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

2020-11-13 20:46


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 132044
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Iota Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
400 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2020

Banding features over the eastern and southeastern portions of the
cyclone's circulation have increased since this morning, and the
overall organization of the system continues to quickly improve.
Earlier ASCAT data indicated that there was a fairly large area of
light winds near the center, and that the low-level center was
displaced to the northwest of the mid-level center seen in visible
satellite imagery. Since the system is still in its formative
stage, the low-level center may reform closer to the mid-level
feature, and the advisory position is a compromise between the
low- and mid-level circulations. The earlier ASCAT data indicated
peak winds of around 30 kt with several higher rain-inflated
vectors. Based on the continued increase in organization,
and Dvorak T-numbers of T2.5 from both TAFB and SAB, the initial
intensity is raised to 35 kt. Iota becomes the 30th named storm of
the recording-breaking 2020 hurricane season.

The environment ahead of Iota appears to be quite conducive
for intensification. The system will be moving over warm waters,
in a moist atmosphere, and within an area of very low vertical
wind shear. As a result, steady to rapid strengthening appears
likely over the next few days. The NHC intensity forecast calls
for Iota to reach hurricane status within 36 h, and now calls for
the system to be a major hurricane when it approaches the coast of
Central America. The NHC intensity foreast is in good agreement
with the HFIP corrected consensus model, and the 70-kt increase in
intensity over the next 72 hours is supported by the SHIPS Rapid
Intensification Index that shows a nearly 60 percent chance of a 65
kt increase in intensity during that time period.

The tropical storm has not moved very much today, and the initial
motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 255/3 kt. A strong
mid-level ridge that extends across Florida and the western
Atlantic is forecast to slide eastward over the next few days
causing the cyclone to move faster toward the west or
west-northwestward. The track guidance has come into a bit better
agreement this afternoon, with only the HWRF showing a track
farther north over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The latest
consensus aids were very close to the previous official forecast,
and no significant adjustments to the earlier track forecast were
required.


Key Messages:

1. Iota is expected to strengthen and be a major hurricane when it
approaches the coast of Central America. There is a risk of
dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts across portions of
Nicaragua and Honduras beginning Sunday night or early Monday.
Hurricane Watches will likely be issued for a portion of this area
tonight or early Saturday.

2. Through Wednesday morning, heavy rainfall from Iota may lead to
life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions
of Haiti, Jamaica and Central America. Flooding and landslides
from heavy rainfall could be significant across Central America
given recovery efforts underway after Hurricane Eta.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 13.8N 74.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 13.7N 75.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 13.7N 76.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 13.9N 77.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 14.2N 79.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 16/0600Z 14.6N 81.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 15.0N 82.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 17/1800Z 15.2N 85.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
120H 18/1800Z 14.7N 88.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-11-13 20:46


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 132044
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Iota Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
400 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2020

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM IOTA..
...RISK OF DANGEROUS WINDS, STORM SURGE, AND RAINFALL IMPACTS IN
CENTRAL AMERICA BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 74.3W
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warning in effect.

Interests in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of
this system. A Hurricane Watch may be required for a portion of
that area tonight or early Saturday.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iota was
located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 74.3 West. Iota is
moving toward the west-southwest near 3 mph (6 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue through early Saturday. A westward
to west-northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is
expected to begin by late Saturday and continue through Monday. On
the forecast track, Iota will move across the central Caribbean Sea
during the next day or so, and approach the coasts of Nicaragua and
northeastern Honduras late Sunday and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is likely over
the weekend, and the system is forecast to be a major hurricane
when it approaches Central America.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Through Wednesday morning, Iota is expected to produce
4 to 8 inches of rain, with local 12 inch totals, across portions
of northern Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica. Across Jamaica and
southern Haiti, 2 to 4 inches are expected, with local amounts up
to 6 inches. Across remaining sections of Central America, the
system has the potential to produce 20 to 30 inches of rain with a
focus across northern Nicaragua and Honduras. This rainfall would
lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river
flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Iota will begin affecting portions
of the coast of Colombia, and the southern coasts of Hispaniola and
Jamaica during the next day or so. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-11-13 20:45


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 132043
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM IOTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020
2100 UTC FRI NOV 13 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNING IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF
THAT AREA TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 74.3W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 74.3W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 74.2W

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 13.7N 75.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 13.7N 76.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 13.9N 77.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 14.2N 79.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 14.6N 81.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 15.0N 82.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 15.2N 85.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 14.7N 88.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 74.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2020-11-13 15:07


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 131504 CCA
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Thirty-One Discussion Number 1...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
1000 AM EST Fri Nov 13 2020

Corrected the time from EDT to EST

Deep convection associated with the area of low pressure over the
central Caribbean Sea has increased and become more concentrated
since yesterday. One-minute GOES-16 visible satellite imagery shows
that the circulation has also become better defined, with a westerly
component seen in the low-cloud motion near the southwestern edge
of the primary convective mass. Subjective Dvorak intensity
estimates from both TAFB and SAB are T2.0, indicating that the
convection has become sufficiently organized for the system to be
classified as a tropical depression. The initial wind speed is set
at 30 kt, in line with the Dvorak classifications.

Environmental conditions of low vertical wind shear, warm sea
surface temperatures, and a moist atmosphere favor intensification
over the next few days. Given the current broad and sprawling
structure of the system, strengthening may begin as gradual today,
but once an inner core organizes, steady-to-rapid strengthening
appears likely. While the SHIPS rapid intensification index does not
show very high chances of rapid strengthening for any one 24-h
period over the next few days, it does indicate a 50/50 chance
(nearly 10 times the climatological mean) of a 65-kt increase in
wind speed over the next 72 hours. As a result, the NHC forecast
calls for significant strengthening during the 24 to 72 hour time
period, and the system could approach the coast of Central America
as a major hurricane in a few days. The NHC track forecast at days
4 and 5 shows the system weakening over land, however some of the
track guidance keeps the system just off the coast on Honduras at
that time. If a more northern track occurs, the system could be
stronger at 96 and 120 h if it remains over water.

The depression is moving west-southwestward at about 6 kt. A strong
mid-level ridge that lies over Florida and the western Atlantic
should steer the cyclone west-southwestward during the next 12 to 24
hours. After that time, the ridge is forecast to begin sliding
eastward, and a westward to west-northwestward motion should begin.
On the foreast track, the cyclone is expected to approach the
coast of Central America in 60-72 h. The track guidance is in good
agreement through the first couple of days, but there is increasing
cross-track spread after that time. The HMON, HWRF, and GFS show a
track near or north of the coast of Honduras after 72 hours, while
the ECMWF and UKMET are farther south. For now, the NHC track is
near the middle of the guidance envelope between the HFIP corrected
consensus model and the TCVA multi-model consensus.

Key Messages:

1. The depression is expected to strengthen to a hurricane while it
approaches the coast of Central America, and there is a risk of
dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts across portions of
Nicaragua and Honduras beginning Sunday night. Hurricane Watches
will likely be issued for a portion of this area tonight.

2. Through Wednesday morning, heavy rainfall from Tropical
Depression Thirty-One may lead to life-threatening flash flooding
and river flooding across portions of Haiti, Jamaica and Central
America. Flooding and landslides from heavy rainfall could be
significant across Central America given recovery efforts underway
after Hurricane Eta.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 14.2N 74.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 14.0N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 13.8N 76.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 13.9N 77.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 14.1N 79.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 16/0000Z 14.5N 80.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 14.9N 82.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 15.2N 85.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
120H 18/1200Z 14.7N 88.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-11-13 15:06


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 131503 CCA
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Thirty-One Advisory Number 1...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
1000 AM EST Fri Nov 13 2020

Corrected the time from EDT to EST

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND APPROACH CENTRAL AMERICA AS A
HURRICANE EARLY NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 74.3W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warning in effect.

Interests in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of
this system. A Hurricane Watch may be required for a portion of
that area tonight.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Thirty-One was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 74.3
West. The depression is moving toward the west-southwest near 7 mph
(11 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through early
Saturday. A westward to west-northwestward motion at a slightly
faster forward speed is expected to begin by late Saturday and
continue through early Monday. On the forecast track, the system
will move across the central Caribbean Sea during the next day or
so, and approach the coasts of Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras
late Sunday and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The depression is forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm
later today or tonight. Additional strengthening is likely over
the weekend, and the system could be near major hurricane strength
when it approaches Central America.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Through Wednesday morning, Tropical Depression
Thirty-One is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rain, with local
12 inch totals, across portions of northern Columbia, Panama and
Costa Rica. Across Jamaica and southern Haiti, 2 to 4 inches are
expected, with local amounts up to 6 inches. Across remaining
sections of Central America, the system has the potential to produce
20 to 30 inches of rain with a focus across northern Nicaragua and
Honduras. This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening
flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-11-13 14:57


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 131455
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Thirty-One Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
1100 AM EDT Fri Nov 13 2020

Deep convection associated with the area of low pressure over the
central Caribbean Sea has increased and become more concentrated
since yesterday. One-minute GOES-16 visible satellite imagery shows
that the circulation has also become better defined, with a westerly
component seen in the low-cloud motion near the southwestern edge
of the primary convective mass. Subjective Dvorak intensity
estimates from both TAFB and SAB are T2.0, indicating that the
convection has become sufficiently organized for the system to be
classified as a tropical depression. The initial wind speed is set
at 30 kt, in line with the Dvorak classifications.

Environmental conditions of low vertical wind shear, warm sea
surface temperatures, and a moist atmosphere favor intensification
over the next few days. Given the current broad and sprawling
structure of the system, strengthening may begin as gradual today,
but once an inner core organizes, steady-to-rapid strengthening
appears likely. While the SHIPS rapid intensification index does not
show very high chances of rapid strengthening for any one 24-h
period over the next few days, it does indicate a 50/50 chance
(nearly 10 times the climatological mean) of a 65-kt increase in
wind speed over the next 72 hours. As a result, the NHC forecast
calls for significant strengthening during the 24 to 72 hour time
period, and the system could approach the coast of Central America
as a major hurricane in a few days. The NHC track forecast at days
4 and 5 shows the system weakening over land, however some of the
track guidance keeps the system just off the coast on Honduras at
that time. If a more northern track occurs, the system could be
stronger at 96 and 120 h if it remains over water.

The depression is moving west-southwestward at about 6 kt. A strong
mid-level ridge that lies over Florida and the western Atlantic
should steer the cyclone west-southwestward during the next 12 to 24
hours. After that time, the ridge is forecast to begin sliding
eastward, and a westward to west-northwestward motion should begin.
On the foreast track, the cyclone is expected to approach the
coast of Central America in 60-72 h. The track guidance is in good
agreement through the first couple of days, but there is increasing
cross-track spread after that time. The HMON, HWRF, and GFS show a
track near or north of the coast of Honduras after 72 hours, while
the ECMWF and UKMET are farther south. For now, the NHC track is
near the middle of the guidance envelope between the HFIP corrected
consensus model and the TCVA multi-model consensus.

Key Messages:

1. The depression is expected to strengthen to a hurricane while it
approaches the coast of Central America, and there is a risk of
dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts across portions of
Nicaragua and Honduras beginning Sunday night. Hurricane Watches
will likely be issued for a portion of this area tonight.

2. Through Wednesday morning, heavy rainfall from Tropical
Depression Thirty-One may lead to life-threatening flash flooding
and river flooding across portions of Haiti, Jamaica and Central
America. Flooding and landslides from heavy rainfall could be
significant across Central America given recovery efforts underway
after Hurricane Eta.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 14.2N 74.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 14.0N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 13.8N 76.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 13.9N 77.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 14.1N 79.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 16/0000Z 14.5N 80.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 14.9N 82.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 15.2N 85.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
120H 18/1200Z 14.7N 88.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

>