Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for GAMMA-20
in Mexico, Cuba

Global Telecommunication Service

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2020-10-06 02:33


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 060231
TCDAT5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Gamma Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020
1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020

Gamma was entirely devoid of convection for most of the day. Shortly
before sunset, a few disorganized thunderstorms developed to the
southeast of the cyclone's center, however these appear to be forced
at least in part by a sea breeze boundary and are not exclusively
associated with Gamma. A few other small cells of convection have
developed to the west of Gamma's center during the past hour or so,
but not nearly enough to be considered sufficiently organized to
meet the requirement for a tropical cyclone. Gamma is therefore now
considered to be post-tropical and this will be the last NHC
advisory.

The cyclone could still produce some additional disorganized
convection and periods of heavy rain overnight as it moves inland
over the Yucatan peninsula, but this is not expected to result in
significant regeneration. Some of this rain could impact areas that
are preparing for the much more significant approach of Hurricane
Delta in a day or so. The cyclone is moving southwestward near
5 kt, and this should continue for another day or so until it
dissipates. The winds associated with Gamma's remnants should
gradually weaken through that time, though the system could still
produce a few areas of heavy rain over southeastern Mexico.

It is worth noting that several model trackers, and consequently
the consensus aids, depict that Gamma will move northward over the
Gulf of Mexico and strengthen significantly in a couple of days.
This is because the trackers lose track of Gamma when it dissipates
and start following nearby Hurricane Delta instead. In reality, no
models forecast that Gamma will remain a well-defined cyclone for
more than another day or two.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 21.6N 88.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 06/1200Z 21.1N 88.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 07/0000Z 20.2N 89.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2020-10-06 02:33


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 060231
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Gamma Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020
1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020

...GAMMA BECOMES POST TROPICAL NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...
...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 88.4W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM ENE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM NW OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 220 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Gamma
was located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 88.4 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the southwest near 6 mph (9
km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next
day or so. The post-tropical cyclone is currently centered along
the northern coast of the Yucatan peninsula and will move inland
through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is anticipated and Gamma is forecast to dissipate
by Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Through midweek, the remnants of Gamma are expected to
produce an additional 2 to 4 inches of rainfall with isolated
maximum amounts of 8 inches across portions of the Mexican states of
Yucatan, Campeche, and Tabasco. This rainfall may produce areas of
flash flooding.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2020-10-06 02:33


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 060231
TCMAT5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GAMMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020
0300 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 88.4W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 220 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 120SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 88.4W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 88.2W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.1N 88.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 20.2N 89.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 88.4W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2020-10-05 20:35


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 052033
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Gamma Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020

The last couple of legs of the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft mission and recent METOP-A and C scatterometer passes
support lowering Gamma's initial intensity to 30 kt for this
advisory. Conventional satellite imagery reveals that the cyclone
has been devoid of deep convection for nearly 10 hours and is on
its way to becoming a post-tropical remnant low. Strong southerly
shear and a stable, relatively dry surrounding air mass should
prevent any significant convective regeneration as the system
approaches the northern coast of the northwestern Yucatan peninsula
tomorrow. After the remnants of Gamma makes landfall, dissipation
is likely to occur Wednesday as larger, Tropical Storm Delta
approaches the Yucatan Channel.

The initial motion is estimated to be southwestward, or 230/4 kt.
A continued southwestward or west-southwestward motion is expected
through Wednesday morning while moving inland over the northern
Mexican State of Yucatan. The NHC forecast track is basically an
update of this morning's package and is based on the various
multi-model consensus aids.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Gamma is expected to produce areas of heavy rainfall through
midweek over portions of southeast Mexico, including the Mexican
states of Yucatan, Campeche, and Tabasco. This rainfall could result
in areas of flash flooding.

2. Gusty winds are likely along portions of the northern coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula later today through Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 22.1N 88.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 21.6N 88.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 06/1800Z 20.9N 89.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 07/0600Z 20.0N 90.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2020-10-05 20:34


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 052032
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Gamma Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020

...GAMMA BECOMES A DEPRESSION...
...LIKELY TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 88.1W
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM ENE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM NW OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Warning and
the Tropical Storm Watch along the northern coast of the Yucatan
peninsula.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Gamma
was located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 88.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and
a southwest, or west-southwest motion is expected to continue
through Wednesday morning. On the forecast track, the center of
the depression should move inland over the northwest coast of the
Yucatan peninsula Tuesday and remain over the northern portion of
the peninsula and dissipate Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast, and Gamma is
expected degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low tonight and
dissipate over the northern portion of the Yucatan peninsula
Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Gamma can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Through midweek, Gamma is expected to produce an
additional 2 to 4 inches of rainfall with isolated maximum amounts
of 8 inches across portions of the Mexican states of Yucatan,
Campeche, and Tabasco. This rainfall may produce areas of flash
flooding.

WIND: Gusty winds are likely along portions of the northern coast
of the Yucatan Peninsula later today through Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2020-10-05 20:34


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 052032
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GAMMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020
2100 UTC MON OCT 05 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL WARNING AND
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 88.1W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 230 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 150SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 88.1W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 87.9W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.6N 88.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 20.9N 89.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 20.0N 90.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 88.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

2020-10-05 17:48


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 051746
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gamma Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020
100 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020

...GAMMA CONTINUES TO SPIN DOWN...
...LIKELY TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 87.9W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM ENE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM NNW OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North and west of Cancun to Dzilam Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Dzilam to Campeche Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected to occur later today somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was
located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 87.9 West. Gamma is
moving toward the southwest near 4 mph (7 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Wednesday morning. On the
forecast track, the center of Gamma should move inland over the
northwest coast of the Yucatan Peninsula Tuesday night and remain
inland through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast, and Gamma is
expected to become a depression this evening and degenerate to a
post-tropical remnant low tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Gamma can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Through midweek, Gamma is expected to produce an
additional 3 to 6 inches of rainfall with isolated maximum amounts
of 8 inches across portions of the Mexican states of Yucatan,
Campeche, and Tabasco. This rainfall may produce significant flash
flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely in portions of the
Tropical Storm Warning area along the northern coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula for a brief period this afternoon. Tropical Storm
conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2020-10-05 14:58


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 051455
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Gamma Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020
1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020

Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating Gamma found
maximum 850 mb flight-level winds of 37 kt and surface SFMR peak
winds of 40 kt, and the central pressure has increased to 1003 mb.
Therefore, the initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt for this
advisory.

Stiff, persistent southerly shear, and an inhibiting thermodynamic
surrounding environment should prevent Gamma from restrengthening,
although, the Decay SHIPS intensity model does indicate a very
brief period of decreasing shear magnitude just prior to landfall
around the 24 hour period. Afterward, the shear, once again,
increases. Gamma is expected to make landfall over the
northwestern Yucatan peninsula on Tuesday and further weakening
to a remnant low is forecast Wednesday as the cyclone remains
inland over the northern Mexican State of Yucatan. Dissipation is
likely to occur Friday over the region, if not sooner.

The initial motion is estimated to be a south-southwestward drift,
or 205/2 kt. A turn southwestward or west-southwestward is
expected by tonight and this general motion should continue through
Wednesday morning while moving inland over the northern Mexican
State of Yucatan. The large-scale models still insist on some
binary interaction occurring with Tropical Storm Delta commencing
Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. This should cause Gamma to
gradually turn cyclonically through Thursday while remaining over
the Northern Yucatan peninsula. If there is a delay in Gamma's
landfall, or the cyclone does remain just offshore, similar to the
outlier UKMET, then Tropical Storm Delta could end up absorbing the
smaller Gamma tropical cyclone toward the end of the week. For
now, the NHC forecast will side with a landfall scenario which
agrees with the HCCA consensus and the GFS/ECMWF solutions.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Gamma is expected to produce heavy rainfall through midweek over
portions of southeast Mexico, including the Mexican states of
Yucatan, Campeche, and Tabasco. This rainfall could result in
significant flash flooding.

2. Even though Gamma is just offshore, tropical storm conditions
are likely along portions of the northern coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 22.3N 87.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 22.1N 88.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 21.6N 89.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 20.9N 89.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 07/1200Z 20.2N 90.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 08/0000Z 20.3N 89.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 08/1200Z 21.0N 89.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2020-10-05 14:58


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 051454
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gamma Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020
1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020

...GAMMA EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF
YUCATAN TUESDAY...
...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF
YUCATAN...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 87.6W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM ENE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM NNW OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 205 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North and west of Cancun to Dzilam Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Dzilam to Campeche Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected to occur later today somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was
located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 87.6 West. Gamma is
drifting toward the south-southwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A turn
toward the southwest or west-southwest is expected by tonight, and
this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday
morning. On the forecast track, the center of Gamma should move
inland over the northwest coast of the Yucatan Peninsula Tuesday
night and remain inland through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast, and Gamma is expected to degenerate
to a post-tropical remnant low on Wednesday. Dissipation of the
low should occur on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Gamma can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Through midweek, Gamma is expected to produce an
additional 3 to 6 inches of rainfall with isolated maximum amounts
of 8 inches across portions of the Mexican states of Yucatan,
Campeche, and Tabasco. This rainfall may produce significant flash
flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely in portions of the
Tropical Storm Warning area along the northern coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula later today. Tropical Storm conditions are possible
within the Tropical Storm Watch area tonight and on Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2020-10-05 14:53


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 051451
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM GAMMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020
1500 UTC MON OCT 05 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH AND WEST OF CANCUN TO DZILAM MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF DZILAM TO CAMPECHE MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 87.6W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 205 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......140NE 0SE 0SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 60SE 210SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 87.6W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 87.5W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.1N 88.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.6N 89.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 20SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 20.9N 89.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 20.2N 90.2W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.3N 89.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.0N 89.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 87.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 05/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

2020-10-05 11:57


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 051154
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gamma Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020
700 AM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020

...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE FINDS GAMMA WEAKER...
...FURTHER WEAKENING EXPECTED...

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 87.5W
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM ENE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM NNW OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 205 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North and west of Cancun to Dzilam Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Dzilam to Campeche Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
occurring somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was
located near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 87.5 West. Gamma is
drifting toward the south-southwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). Gamma is
forecast to gradually turn toward the southwest later today, and
continue to move slowly in that direction through mid-week. On the
forecast track, the center of Gamma will continue to meander
offshore of the northern Yucatan Peninsula and pass near or just
offshore of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula this
evening and on Tuesday. Gamma could possibly move inland along the
northwest coast of the Yucatan Peninsula Tuesday night and
Wednesday.

Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km),
mainly northwest through northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on measurements from
the hurricane hunter plane is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Gamma can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Through midweek, Gamma is expected to produce an
additional 3 to 6 inches of rainfall with isolated maximum amounts
of 8 inches across portions of the Mexican states of Yucatan,
Campeche, and Tabasco. This rainfall may produce significant flash
flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely in portions of the
Tropical Storm Warning area along the northern coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula later today. Tropical Storm conditions are possible
within the Tropical Storm Watch area tonight and on Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2020-10-05 08:52


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 050850
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Gamma Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020
400 AM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020

Gamma is a strongly sheared tropical storm that has been meandering
just north of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.
Strong convective cloud tops colder than -80 deg C are located more
than 60 nmi north and northeast of the well-defined and fully
exposed low-level circulation center. An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft investigating the cyclone found maximum
850-mb flight-level winds of only 44 kt along with peak SFMR surface
winds of 47 kt. In addition, a 0329Z ASCAT-A pass revealed peak
surface winds of 41 kt. Allowing for undersampling by the
scatterometer instrument and blending it with the SFMR winds
supports lowering the initial intensity to 45 kt. The central
pressure of 999 mb is based on a center dropsonde reports of 1000 mb
and 10-12 kt winds.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 240/02 kt. Gamma's
future track remains highly uncertain after day 2. For the next 48
hours or so, the cyclone is forecast to move slowly southwestward to
west-southwestward and weaken due to strong southerly vertical wind
shear. Thereafter, TD-26 to the east is forecast to strengthen into
a hurricane, accompanied by a corresponding increase in the size of
that cyclone's circulation, which is expected to result in some
binary interaction between the two tropical cyclones. Due to Gamma's
expected smaller size on days 3 and 4, the cyclone is forecast to be
pulled eastward and then northward, making landfall on and then
moving over the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula. By day 5, Gamma is
expected to degenerate into a remnant low and then be absorbed by
the larger circulation of the expected central Gulf of Mexico
hurricane that is currently TD-26. The new NHC track forecast is
similar to but a little slower than the previous advisory track, and
lies close to the southern edge of the guidance envelope.

Strong southerly wind shear, combined with drier and more stable air
just to the west of Gamma, is expected to weaken the cyclone further
over the next few days. If land interaction occurs sooner than
expected, then the cyclone could weaken and dissipate sooner than
currently forecast. For now, the intensity forecast maintains
continuity with the previous advisory and shows dissipation by 120
hours as Gamma interacts with what is expected to be a significant
hurricane over the central Gulf of Mexico by 96 hours, which could
end up absorbing the smaller Gamma tropical cyclone.

Due to the uncertainty in the forecast at this time, future
advisories may feature larger-than-normal changes to the track or
intensity forecast. It is also worth noting that several dynamical
model trackers appear to lose Gamma and jump to tracking Tropical
Depression Twenty-Six when it reaches the Gulf of Mexico, resulting
in unrealistic depictions of the model intensity and track
forecasts.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Gamma is expected to produce heavy rainfall through midweek over
portions of southeast Mexico, including the Mexican states of
Yucatan, Campeche, and Tabasco. This rainfall could result in
significant flash flooding.

2. Even though Gamma is just offshore, tropical storm conditions
are likely along portions of the northern coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 22.7N 87.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 22.5N 88.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 22.1N 88.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 21.4N 89.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 20.8N 90.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 07/1800Z 20.3N 90.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND YUCATAN
72H 08/0600Z 20.7N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND YUCATAN
96H 09/0600Z 22.5N 90.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-10-05 08:52


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 050850
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gamma Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020
400 AM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020

...TROPICAL STORM GAMMA DRIFTING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD JUST NORTH OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 87.5W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM NE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM NNW OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North and west of Cancun to Dzilam Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Dzilam to Campeche Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
occurring somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was
located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 87.5 West. Gamma is
drifting toward the west-southwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). Gamma is
forecast to gradually turn toward the southwest later today, and
continue to move slowly in that direction through mid-week. On the
forecast track, the center of Gamma will continue to meander
offshore of the northern Yucatan Peninsula early this morning, and
pass near or just offshore of the northern coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula late today and on Tuesday. Gamma could possibly move
inland along the northwest coast of the Yucatan Peninsula Tuesday
night and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km),
mainly northwest through northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Gamma can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Through midweek, Gamma is expected to produce an
additional 3 to 6 inches of rainfall with isolated maximum amounts
of 8 inches across portions of the Mexican states of Yucatan,
Campeche, and Tabasco. This rainfall may produce significant flash
flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely in portions of the
Tropical Storm Warning area along the northern coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula later today. Tropical Storm conditions are possible
within the Tropical Storm Watch area tonight and on Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-10-05 08:52


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 050849
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM GAMMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020
0900 UTC MON OCT 05 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH AND WEST OF CANCUN TO DZILAM MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF DZILAM TO CAMPECHE MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 87.5W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......140NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 45SE 120SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 87.5W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 87.4W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.5N 88.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.1N 88.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 21.4N 89.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 20.8N 90.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 20.3N 90.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.7N 90.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 22.5N 90.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 87.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 05/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2020-10-05 05:48


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 050546
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gamma Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020
100 AM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS GAMMA A LITTLE WEAKER WHILE IT
CONTINUES TO MEANDER JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 87.4W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM ENE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM NNW OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North and west of Cancun to Dzilam Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Dzilam to Campeche Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
occurring somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicated that the center of Tropical Storm Gamma
was located near latitude 22.8 North, longitude 87.4 West. The
tropical storm is drifting toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h).
Gamma is forecast to gradually turn toward the southwest or
west-southwest later today, and continue to move slowly in that
direction through mid-week. On the forecast track, the center of
Gamma will continue to meander offshore of the northern Yucatan
Peninsula this morning, and pass near or just offshore of the
northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula late today and on Tuesday.

Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Further weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.
Afterward, little change in strength is forecast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on measurements from
the hurricane hunter plane is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Gamma can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Gamma is expected to produce an additional 3 to 6 inches
of rainfall, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches, across
portions of the Mexican states of Yucatan, Campeche and Tabasco.
This rainfall may enhance any ongoing flash flooding and result in
new areas of flash flooding into the middle of the week.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely in portions of the
Tropical Storm Warning area along the northern coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula today. Tropical Storm conditions are possible within the
Tropical Storm Watch area late today and on Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-10-05 02:41


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 050239
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Gamma Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020
1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 04 2020

Gamma has moved much farther northeast than previously anticipated.
With little in the way of low or mid-level large-scale steering flow
currently in place, it seems likely that upper-level
southwesterlies, also responsible for the shear affecting the
tropical storm, are causing this recent northeastward motion. This
may be either through reformations of the center closer to the
convection or a direct contribution to the net steering. An Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently investigating
Gamma and so far has found max SFMR winds of 47 kt but flight level
winds of only 45 kt. Given the data so far, there is no indication
that Gamma is any stronger than the 50 kt intensity, but it seems
prudent to let the plane finish its pattern before lowering the
winds at this time.

Gamma's future track is highly uncertain. The track guidance spread
is much higher than usual, and confidence in the forecast is
accordingly low. Most of the global models indicate that Gamma will
soon begin moving generally west-southwestward as a mid-level ridge
briefly builds over the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico.
Unfortunately, there is little agreement on exactly when this will
happen or how fast Gamma will move once it turns. After about 48 h,
Gamma could interact with Tropical Depression Twenty-Six, which is
forecast to move over the northwestern Caribbean Sea at that time.
Current dynamical models are notoriously bad at forecasting such
interactions, but if the two systems do interact it will likely
cause Gamma to move inland over the Yucatan.

Whether such an interaction occurs or not, continued shear and
proximity to land should cause the tropical storm to gradually
weaken, and Gamma could dissipate if it moves over land (and stays
there) in a few days, as shown by the GFS. The ECMWF shows the
vortex remaining over water but dissipating nonetheless, while a
couple other global models maintain the vortex longer and show it
moving north over the central Gulf of Mexico late in the forecast
period. The NHC forecast is a compromise between those solutions,
showing a remnant low moving north over the southern Gulf of Mexico
by day 5. In general, the NHC intensity forecast is similar to the
previous one, but slightly lower to account for the system
potentially moving inland.

Due to the uncertainty in the forecast at this time, future
advisories may feature larger than normal changes to the track or
intensity forecast. It is also worth noting that several dynamical
model trackers appear to lose Gamma and jump to tracking Tropical
Depression Twenty-Six when it reaches the Gulf of Mexico, resulting
in unrealistic depictions of the intensity and track forecasts.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Gamma is expected to produce heavy rainfall for several days over
portions of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Central
America, and far western Cuba. This rainfall could result in
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, particularly in the
mountainous regions of southeastern Mexico and Central America.

2. Even though Gamma is just offshore, tropical storm conditions
are likely along portions of the northern coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula on Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 22.8N 87.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 22.7N 87.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 22.3N 88.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 21.8N 89.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 21.3N 90.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 07/1200Z 20.3N 90.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 20.2N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 09/0000Z 22.0N 90.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 10/0000Z 24.0N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2020-10-05 02:41


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 050238
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gamma Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020
1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 04 2020

...GAMMA CONTINUES TO DRIFT JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 87.2W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM ENE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM N OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from
Progreso to Campeche Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North and west of Cancun to Dzilam Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Dzilam to Campeche Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
occurring somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicated that the center of Tropical Storm Gamma
was located near latitude 22.8 North, longitude 87.2 West. The
tropical storm is drifting toward the east near 2 mph (4 km/h).
Gamma is forecast to gradually turn toward the southwest or
west-southwest on Monday and move slowly in that direction through
mid-week. On the forecast track, the center of Gamma will continue
to meander offshore of the northern Yucatan Peninsula tonight and
pass near or just offshore of the northern coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula on Monday and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Gradual
weakening is anticipated to begin on Monday and continue into
Tuesday. Afterward, little change in strength is forecast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on measurements from
the hurricane hunter plane is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Gamma can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Gamma is expected to produce an additional 3 to 6 inches
of rainfall, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches, across
portions of the Mexican states of Yucatan, Campeche and Tabasco.
This rainfall may enhance any ongoing flash flooding and result in
new areas of flash flooding into the middle of the week.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely in portions of the
Tropical Storm Warning area along the northern coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula on Monday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible within
the Tropical Storm Watch area late Monday and Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2020-10-05 02:41


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 050238
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM GAMMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020
0300 UTC MON OCT 05 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
PROGRESO TO CAMPECHE MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH AND WEST OF CANCUN TO DZILAM MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF DZILAM TO CAMPECHE MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 87.2W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......140NE 60SE 60SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 45SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 87.2W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 87.4W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.7N 87.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 50SE 40SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.3N 88.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.8N 89.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 21.3N 90.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 20.3N 90.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.2N 90.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 22.0N 90.7W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 24.0N 91.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.8N 87.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 05/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2020-10-04 23:58


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 042356
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gamma Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020
700 PM CDT Sun Oct 04 2020

...GAMMA CONTINUES TO DRIFT NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...
...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INVESTIGATING THE
TROPICAL STORM NOW...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 87.4W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM NE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM N OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...5 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North and west of Cancun to Dzilam Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Dzilam to Progreso Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
occurring somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was
located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft near
latitude 22.9 North, longitude 87.4 West. The tropical storm is
currently drifting east-northeastward near 3 mph (5 km/h). Gamma is
forecast to gradually turn toward the southwest or west-southwest on
Monday and move slowly in that direction through mid-week. On the
forecast track, the center of Gamma will continue to meander
offshore of the northern Yucatan Peninsula tonight and pass near or
just offshore of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on
Monday and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated to begin later tonight or on
Monday and continue into Tuesday. Afterward, little change in
strength is forecast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on preliminary data
from the Hurricane Hunter plane is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Gamma can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Gamma is expected to produce an additional 3 to 6 inches
of rainfall, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches, across
portions of the Mexican states of Yucatan, Campeche and Tabasco.
This rainfall may enhance any ongoing flash flooding and result in
new areas of flash flooding into the middle of the week.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue within portions
of the Tropical Storm Warning area on northern coast of the Yucatan
through today. Tropical Storm conditions are possible within the
Tropical Storm Watch area later today through Monday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2020-10-04 21:00


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 042058
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Gamma Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020
400 PM CDT Sun Oct 04 2020

The last aircraft reconnaissance fix, recorded a couple of hours
ago, indicated that Gamma's center had wobbled a little to the
right of the previous 6-hour motion and is located near the
southeastern edge of the convective canopy. Flight-level winds
adjusted to the surface, SFMR wind data, and a blend of Dvorak
satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB still support an
initial intensity of 50 kt for this advisory.

The UW-CIMSS shear analysis reveals stiff 20-25 kt southerly shear
impinging on the south portion of the cyclone. Subsequently, the
large-scale models and the ECMWF/GFS statistical-dynamical
intensity guidance show the shear magnitude increasing during the
next 24 hours. This inhibiting upper wind pattern should induce
weakening soon. Although the shear is predicted to decrease
somewhat around mid-period, Gamma should exhibit little change in
strength through the remaining period which is in best agreement
with all of the skilled intensity guidance. As mentioned in
previous advisories, it cannot be stressed enough the relatively
high level of uncertainty in this intensity forecast, and that it's
primarily dependent on whether or not the cyclone moves back over
the Yucatan Peninsula.

Gamma should continue to move little, or meander over the
southern Gulf of Mexico, near the northern coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula through most of tomorrow. By Monday night,
the global models are in good agreement with the western extent of
a subtropical ridge reestablishing temporarily over the central
Gulf of Mexico. This change in the synoptic steering pattern
should cause the cyclone to turn and move west-southwestward
through the 72 hour forecast period. After a brief reduction in
forward speed late Wednesday, while Potential-Tropical Cyclone
Twenty-Six moves into the central Gulf of Mexico, a turn toward the
northwest is expected on Thursday as the ridge, once again, builds
back over the central Gulf in response to PTC Twenty-Six
approaching the northern Gulf coast. The official track forecast
is adjusted to the left of the previous one through the 60 hour
period to agree more with the HCCA consensus, and shifted to the
right through day 5.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Gamma is expected to produce heavy rainfall for several days over
portions of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Central
America, and far western Cuba. This rainfall could result in
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, particularly in the
mountainous regions of southeastern Mexico and Central America.

2. Even though Gamma is just offshore, tropical storm conditions
will continue across portions of the northern coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 22.4N 87.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 22.3N 88.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 22.1N 88.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 21.7N 89.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 21.3N 90.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 07/0600Z 20.8N 91.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 20.1N 91.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 21.0N 92.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 22.2N 92.7W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2020-10-04 20:58


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 042056
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gamma Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020
400 PM CDT Sun Oct 04 2020

...GAMMA STALLED JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 87.8W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM NE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM NNW OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North and west of Cancun to Dzilam Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Dzilam to Progreso Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
occurring somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was
located near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 87.8 West and has
stalled just north of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Gamma should slowly turn toward the west-southwest tonight or
Monday, and a west-southwestward drift should continue Monday night
through early Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Gamma will meander offshore of the northern Yucatan Peninsula and
over the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico today, and pass near or
just offshore of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on
Monday and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is anticipated to begin later tonight or on Monday
and continue into Tuesday. Afterward, little change in strength is
forecast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Gamma can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Gamma is expected to produce an additional 3 to 6 inches
of rainfall, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches, across
portions of the Mexican states of Yucatan, Campeche and Tabasco.
This rainfall may enhance any ongoing flash flooding and result in
new areas of flash flooding into the middle of the week.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue within portions
of the Tropical Storm Warning area on northern coast of the Yucatan
through today. Tropical Storm conditions are possible within the
Tropical Storm Watch area later today through Monday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2020-10-04 20:58


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 042056
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM GAMMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020
2100 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH AND WEST OF CANCUN TO DZILAM MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF DZILAM TO PROGRESO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 87.8W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......140NE 60SE 40SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 45SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 88.1W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 88.0W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 22.3N 88.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 50SE 30SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.1N 88.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 40SE 20SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.7N 89.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 40SE 20SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 21.3N 90.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 20SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 20.8N 91.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 20SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 20.1N 91.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 20SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 21.0N 92.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 22.2N 92.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N 88.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 05/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

2020-10-04 17:46


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 041744
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gamma Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020
100 PM CDT Sun Oct 04 2020

...GAMMA MEANDERING JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 88.0W
ABOUT 60 MI...90 KM NNE OF RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM NE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 005 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North and west of Cancun to Dzilam Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Dzilam to Progreso Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
occurring somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was
located near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 88.0 West. Gamma is
moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h), and this general motion
with a further decrease in forward speed is expected today. Gamma
should turn toward the west or west-southwest tonight or Monday, and
a slow southwestward motion should continue Monday night through
early Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Gamma will
meander offshore of the northern Yucatan Peninsula and over the
extreme southern Gulf of Mexico today, and pass near or just
offshore of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on Monday
and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected through this evening.
Gradual weakening is anticipated to begin later tonight or on Monday
and continue into Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from an Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Gamma can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Gamma is expected to produce an additional 2 to 4 inches
with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across portions of
northern Yucatan and far western Cuba through early Tuesday. This
rainfall may prolong or enhance any ongoing flash flooding.

Through the middle of the week, a separate area of significant rain
is possible in the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, and
southeast Veracruz, with rainfall of 4 to 6 inches and isolated
maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Another remote area of
heavy rain associated with Gamma is expected to bring additional
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 5
inches in southern Guatemala towards the Gulf of Fonseca region
between eastern El Salvador, southern Honduras, and northwest
Nicaragua.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue within portions
of the Tropical Storm Warning area on northern coast of the Yucatan
through today. Tropical Storm conditions are possible within the
Tropical Storm Watch area later today through Monday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-10-04 14:45


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 041443
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Gamma Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020
1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2020

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft has found the center
of Gamma over the far southern Gulf of Mexico, just north of the
Yucatan Peninsula. Early morning visible satellite imagery has
revealed decent banding structure over the northern and western
portions of the circulation. The aircraft has measured a peak 850
mb flight-level wind of 66 kt and SFMR winds of 47 kt. A blend of
these data support an initial intensity of 50 kt, which is also in
line with the latest Dvorak classifications of T3.0 and T3.5 from
SAB and TAFB, respectively.

Gamma appears to be slowing down as anticipated, with an initial
motion estimate of 360/3 kt. Gamma is expected to meander over the
southern Gulf of Mexico, just north of the northern coast of the
Yucatan peninsula during the next 12-24 hours. By late Monday, the
western portion of a subtropical ridge is expected to build
westward over the northern Gulf of Mexico. This should cause Gamma
to turn westward to west-southwestward through the remainder of the
forecast period. The dynamical model guidance is in general
agreement on this scenario, but there are some differences in how
close Gamma tracks to the northwestern portion of the Yucatan
peninsula. The NHC track splits these differences and is a blend
TCVA multi-model consensus and the HFIP corrected consensus. The
new track forecast is very close to the previous official forecast.

Although Gamma has re-strengthened this morning, increasing
southerly wind shear is expected over the cyclone by tonight.
This unfavorable upper-level environment is likely to cause
some gradual weakening by late tonight and Monday. Since the
vertical shear expected to remain moderate to strong through the
latter portion of the forecast period, little overall change in
strength is shown after 48 hours.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Gamma is expected to produce heavy rainfall for several days over
portions of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Central
America, and far western Cuba. This rainfall could result in
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, particularly in the
mountainous regions of southeastern Mexico and Central America.

2. Even though Gamma is offshore, tropical storm conditions will
continue across portions of the northern coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 22.2N 88.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 22.6N 88.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 22.6N 88.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 22.3N 89.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 22.0N 90.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 07/0000Z 21.5N 91.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 21.0N 91.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 20.4N 92.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 09/1200Z 20.4N 93.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-10-04 14:45


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 041443
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gamma Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020
1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2020

...GAMMA FORECAST TO MEANDER JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 88.2W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM N OF RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM ENE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North and west of Cancun to Dzilam Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Dzilam to Progreso Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
occurring somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was
located near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 88.2 West. Gamma is
moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h), and this general motion
with a further decrease in forward speed is expected today. Gamma
should turn toward the west or west-southwest tonight or Monday,
and a slow southwestward motion should continue Monday night
through early Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Gamma will meander offshore of the northern Yucatan Peninsula and
over the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico today, and pass near or
just offshore of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on
Monday and Tuesday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that
the maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected through this evening.
Gradual weakening is anticipated to begin later tonight or on
Monday and continue into Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Gamma can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Gamma is expected to produce an additional 2 to 4 inches
with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across portions of
northern Yucatan and far western Cuba through early Tuesday. This
rainfall may prolong or enhance any ongoing flash flooding.

Through the middle of the week, a separate area of significant rain
is possible in the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, and
southeast Veracruz, with rainfall of 4 to 6 inches and isolated
maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Another remote area of
heavy rain associated with Gamma is expected to bring additional
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 5
inches in southern Guatemala towards the Gulf of Fonseca region
between eastern El Salvador, southern Honduras, and northwest
Nicaragua.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue within portions
of the Tropical Storm Warning area on northern coast of the Yucatan
through today. Tropical Storm conditions are possible within the
Tropical Storm Watch area later today through Monday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-10-04 14:45


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 041443
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM GAMMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020
1500 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH AND WEST OF CANCUN TO DZILAM MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF DZILAM TO PROGRESO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 88.2W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT.......100NE 40SE 40SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 88.2W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 88.2W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 22.6N 88.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.6N 88.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 40SE 20SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.3N 89.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 40SE 20SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.0N 90.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 20SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 21.5N 91.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 20SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 21.0N 91.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 20SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 20.4N 92.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 20.4N 93.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.2N 88.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 04/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2020-10-04 11:56


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 041154
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gamma Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020
700 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2020

...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING GAMMA OVER THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 88.2W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM ENE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM N OF RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North and west of Cancun to Dzilam Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Dzilam to Progreso Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
occurring somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft has located the center of Tropical Storm Gamma near
latitude 22.1 North, longitude 88.2 West. Gamma is moving toward the
north near 4 mph (6 km/h), and this general motion with a further
decrease in forward speed is forecast today. Gamma should turn
toward the west or west-southwest tonight or Monday. On the forecast
track, the center of Gamma will meander offshore of the northern
Yucatan Peninsula and over the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico
today, and pass near or just offshore of the northern coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula on Monday and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some re-strengthening is expected today, followed by
weakening tonight or Monday, which should continue into Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km),
mainly north and east of the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance aircraft
data is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Gamma can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Gamma is expected to produce an additional 2 to 4 inches
with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across portions of
northern Yucatan and far western Cuba through early Tuesday. This
rainfall may prolong or enhance any ongoing flash flooding.

Through the middle of the week, a separate area of significant rain
is possible in the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, northern
Chiapas, and southeast Veracruz, with rainfall of 6 to 8 inches and
isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Another area of heavy
rain will impact southern Guatemala towards the Gulf of Fonseca
region between eastern El Salvador, southern Honduras, and northwest
Nicaragua, with accumulations of 4 to 6 inches and isolated maximum
amounts of 8 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue within the Tropical
Storm Warning area on northern coast of the Yucatan through today.
Tropical Storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm
Watch area on Monday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-10-04 08:57


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 040855
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Gamma Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020
400 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2020

Tropical Storm Gamma has moved back over open water, just offshore
the northern Yucatan Peninsula in the extreme southern Gulf of
Mexico. Although deep convection has been increasing near the
center, the overall convective cloud shield is now strung out to
the north and northeast due to southerly to southwesterly vertical
wind shear in excess of 15 kt. The initial intensity of 45 kt is
based on an earlier ASCAT pass showing 39-kt surface winds just
offshore the northeastern tip of Yucatan, and these winds were
likely under-sampled due to their proximity to the coast. Satellite
classifications from both TAFB and SAB were T3.0/45 kt, which
further supports the 45-kt intensity assessment.

The initial motion estimate is 355/04 kt. As the day progresses,
Gamma is expected to move further into a slight weakness in
subtropical ridge located to the north of the cyclone and slow down,
possibly stalling by this afternoon. The trough over the
southeastern U.S. that is creating the weakness is forecast to move
offshore the U.S. east coast by tonight, causing the ridge to build
back in and force Gamma westward to west-southwestward from Monday
through Thursday. The new NHC track forecast follows the TVCA and
FSSE consensus models, and is similar to but slightly slower and a
little to the right/north of the previous advisory track.

Now that Gamma is back out over open water, some slight
re-strengthening is expected today. However, strong southerly
vertical wind shear is forecast to increase across the cyclone by
tonight and especially on Monday, and continue for the next few
days. The result should be a slow but gradual weakening trend on
Monday through the end of the forecast period. The new official
intensity forecast follow the downward trend of the simple- and
corrected-consensus models, but is slightly higher than the IVCN,
HCCA, FSSE intensity models.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Gamma is expected to produce heavy rainfall for several days over
portions of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Central
America, and far western Cuba. This rainfall could result in
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, particularly in the
mountainous regions of southeastern Mexico and Central America.

2. Even though Gamma is offshore, tropical storm conditions will
continue across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 22.0N 88.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 22.6N 88.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 22.7N 88.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 22.4N 89.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 22.0N 90.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 06/1800Z 21.5N 90.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 21.0N 91.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 20.4N 92.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 09/0600Z 20.4N 93.4W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-10-04 08:54


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 040852
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gamma Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020
400 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2020

...GAMMA LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...TORRENTIAL RAINS OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 88.2W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM ENE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM N OF RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning south of Cancun.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North and west of Cancun to Dzilam Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Dzilam to Progreso Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
occurring somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was
located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 88.2 West. Gamma is
moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general
motion with a further decrease in forward speed is forecast today.
Gamma should turn toward the west or west-southwest tonight or
Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Gamma will meander
offshore of the northern Yucatan Peninsula and over the extreme
southern Gulf of Mexico today, and pass near or just offshore of
the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on Monday and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some re-strengthening is expected today, followed by weakening
tonight or Monday, which should continue into Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km),
mainly north and east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Gamma can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Gamma is expected to produce an additional 2 to 4 inches
with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across portions of
northern Yucatan and far western Cuba through early Tuesday. This
rainfall may prolong or enhance any ongoing flash flooding.

Through the middle of the week, a separate area of significant rain
is possible in the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, northern
Chiapas, and southeast Veracruz, with rainfall of 6 to 8 inches and
isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Another area of heavy
rain will impact southern Guatemala towards the Gulf of Fonseca
region between eastern El Salvador, southern Honduras, and northwest
Nicaragua, with accumulations of 4 to 6 inches and isolated maximum
amounts of 8 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue within the Tropical
Storm Warning area on northern coast of the Yucatan through today.
Tropical Storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm
Watch area on Monday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-10-04 08:54


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 040852
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM GAMMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020
0900 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING SOUTH OF CANCUN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH AND WEST OF CANCUN TO DZILAM MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF DZILAM TO PROGRESO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 88.2W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 88.2W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 88.2W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 22.6N 88.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 20SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 22.7N 88.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 40SE 20SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.4N 89.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 40SE 20SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.0N 90.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 40SE 20SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 21.5N 90.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 40SE 20SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 21.0N 91.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 40SE 20SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 20.4N 92.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 20.4N 93.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 88.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 04/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2020-10-04 05:55


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 040553
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gamma Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020
100 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2020

...GAMMA MOVES OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...TORRENTIAL RAINS OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 88.2W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WNW OF CANCUN MEXICO
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ENE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North and west of Punta Allen to Dzilam Mexico, including Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Dzilam to Progreso Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was
located near latitude 21.8 North, longitude 88.2 West. Gamma is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and a turn toward
the north-northwest with decreasing forward speed is expected later
today, followed by a turn to the west or west-southwest tonight or
Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Gamma will meander
offshore of the northern Yucatan Peninsula and over the extreme
southern Gulf of Mexico today, and pass near or just offshore of the
northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on Monday and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some re-strengthening is expected during the next
day or so now that the center of Gamma has moved back out over open
water.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.38 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Gamma can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Gamma is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 4 to
8 inches across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and far western
Cuba, with maximum rainfall amounts as high as 10 to 15 inches
possible across northeastern Quintana Roo and northern Yucatan. This
rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods.

A separate area of significant rain is possible in the Mexican
states of Campeche, Tabasco, northern Chiapas, and southeast
Veracruz, with rainfall of 6 to 8 inches and isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall may produce life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides. The storm will also result in an area of
heavy rains to the south from southern Guatemala towards the Gulf of
Fonseca region between eastern El Salvador, southern Honduras, and
northwest Nicaragua, with accumulations of 4 to 6 inches and
isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue within the Tropical
Storm Warning area on the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula for
the next few hours, and on the north coast of the Yucatan through
today. Tropical Storm conditions are possible within the Tropical
Storm Watch area on Monday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-10-04 02:33


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 040231
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gamma Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020
1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020

...GAMMA DRENCHING THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 88.0W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM NNW OF TULUM MEXICO
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM E OF PROGRESO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North and west of Punta Allen to Dzilam Mexico, including Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Dzilam to Progreso Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was
located near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 88.0 West. Gamma is
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and a turn
toward the north-northwest with decreasing forward speed is expected
on Sunday, followed by a turn to the west or west-southwest
Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Gamma
will move offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula and over the southern
Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, and pass near or north of the northern
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula Monday and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Gamma can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Gamma is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 4 to
8 inches across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and far western
Cuba, with maximum rainfall amounts as high as 10 to 15 inches
possible across northeastern Quintana Roo and northern Yucatan. This
rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods.

A separate area of significant rain is possible in the Mexican
states of Campeche, Tabasco, northern Chiapas, and southeast
Veracruz, with rainfall of 6 to 8 inches and isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall may produce life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides. The storm will also result in an area of
heavy rains to the south from southern Guatemala towards the Gulf of
Fonseca region between eastern El Salvador, southern Honduras, and
northwest Nicaragua, with accumulations of 4 to 6 inches and
isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue within the Tropical
Storm Warning area on the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula for
the next few hours, and on the north coast of the Yucatan through
Sunday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible within the Tropical
Storm Watch area on Monday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2020-10-04 02:33


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 040230
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM GAMMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020
0300 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH AND WEST OF PUNTA ALLEN TO DZILAM MEXICO...INCLUDING COZUMEL

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF DZILAM TO PROGRESO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 88.0W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 0SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 88.0W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 87.9W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 21.8N 88.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 22.2N 88.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 40SE 20SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.1N 88.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 40SE 20SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.8N 89.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 40SE 20SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.3N 90.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 40SE 20SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 20.7N 91.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 40SE 20SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 20.0N 92.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 19.9N 93.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 88.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 04/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

2020-10-03 23:37


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 032334
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gamma Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020
700 PM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020

...GAMMA INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 87.9W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM NNW OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North and west of Punta Allen to Dzilam Mexico, including Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Dzilam to Progreso Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was
located inland near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 87.9 West. Gamma
is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a turn
toward the north-northwest with decreasing forward speed is expected
tonight and Sunday, followed by a turn to the west or west-southwest
Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Gamma
will continue to move over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula
through tonight, move into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday,
and pass near or north of the northern coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast tonight and
Sunday, followed by some re-intensification by Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Gamma can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Gamma is expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 8 inches
across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and far western Cuba, with
maximum rainfall amounts as high as 10 to 15 inches possible across
northeastern Quintana Roo and northern Yucatan. This rainfall may
produce life-threatening flash floods.

A separate area of significant rain is possible in the Mexican
states of Campeche, Tabasco, northern Chiapas, and southeast
Veracruz, with rainfall of 6 to 8 inches and isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall may produce life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides. The storm will also result in an area of
heavy rains to the south that will affect the Gulf of Fonseca
region between eastern El Salvador, southern Honduras, and
northwest Nicaragua with accumulation of 4 to 6 inches and isolated
maximum amounts of 8 inches.

Rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 5 inches is
expected over the Cayman Islands.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue within the Tropical
Storm Warning area on the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula for
the next few hours, and these conditions should spread across
the remainder of the warning area through Sunday. Tropical Storm
conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area on
Monday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2020-10-03 20:40


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 032037
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Gamma Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020
400 PM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020

Surface observations from the Yucatan Peninsula along with
high-resolution visible satellite imagery indicated that the center
of Gamma made landfall in the vicinity of Tulum, Mexico, shortly
before 1700 UTC. Earlier aircraft observations and pressure
measurements from Tulum showed that the system was very near
hurricane strength when it made landfall. A ragged eye appeared in
the visible images shortly after the center crossed the coast, but
that feature has since become obscured. Since Gamma has likely
been slowly weakening while moving over land, the current intensity
has been set to 55 kt. Continued gradual weakening is likely into
Sunday while the center either moves over land or interacts with
nearby land. Some re-strengthening is expected to begin by
Monday, but the numerical guidance is not very enthusiastic about
intensification over the Gulf, probably due to the combination of
drier air and the interaction with another low pressure system to
the east. The official intensity forecast is not much different
from the model consensus.

Gamma has been moving northwestward, but it is expected to turn
north-northwestward while moving near and into a weakness in the
subtropical ridge over the next day or so. The global models
predict that a trough to the north of the tropical cyclone will
lift northeastward and bypass Gamma. In a couple of days, a ridge
is forecast to build back, albeit weakly, across the Gulf of
Mexico. This is expected to cause the system to turn westward to
southwestward over the latter part of the forecast period. The
more reliable global models show the system meandering over the
southern Bay of Campeche in 4 to 5 days, and so does the official
forecast.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Gamma is expected to produce heavy rainfall for several days over
portions of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Central
America, and far western Cuba. This rainfall could result in
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, particularly in the
mountainous regions of southeastern Mexico and Central America.

2. Even though Gamma has moved inland, tropical storm conditions
will continue along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula through
this evening and are expected to spread along the north coast within
the Tropical Storm Warning area tonight and on Sunday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 20.7N 87.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
12H 04/0600Z 21.3N 88.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 04/1800Z 22.0N 88.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 05/0600Z 22.1N 88.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 22.0N 89.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 06/0600Z 21.6N 90.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 21.0N 91.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 20.0N 92.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 20.0N 93.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-10-03 20:39


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 032036
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gamma Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020
400 PM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020

...GAMMA MOVING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 87.7W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM NNW OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has changed the Hurricane Warning to a
Tropical Storm Warning north of Punta Allen to Cancun Mexico,
including Cozumel, and discontinued all watches and warnings from
Punta Allen southward.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North and west of Punta Allen to Dzilam Mexico, including Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Dzilam to Progreso Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was
located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 87.7 West. Gamma is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a turn toward
the north-northwest with decreasing forward speed is expected
tonight and Sunday, followed by a turn to the west or west-southwest
Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Gamma
will continue to move over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula
through tonight, move into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday,
and pass near or north of the northern coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast tonight and
Sunday, followed by some re-intensification by Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Gamma can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Gamma is expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 8 inches
across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and far western Cuba, with
maximum rainfall amounts as high as 10 to 15 inches possible across
northeastern Quintana Roo and northern Yucatan. This rainfall may
produce life-threatening flash floods.

A separate area of significant rain is possible in the Mexican
states of Campeche, Tabasco, northern Chiapas, and southeast
Veracruz, with rainfall of 6 to 8 inches and isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall may produce life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides. The storm will also result in an area of
heavy rains to the south that will affect the Gulf of Fonseca
region between eastern El Salvador, southern Honduras, and
northwest Nicaragua with accumulation of 4 to 6 inches and isolated
maximum amounts of 8 inches.

Rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 5 inches is
expected over the Cayman Islands.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue within the Tropical
Storm Warning area on the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula for
the next several hours, and these conditions should spread across
the remainder of the warning area through Sunday. Tropical Storm
conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area on
Monday.



NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-10-03 20:39


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 032036
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM GAMMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020
2100 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO CANCUN MEXICO...
INCLUDING COZUMEL...AND DISCONTINUED ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS FROM
PUNTA ALLEN SOUTHWARD.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH AND WEST OF PUNTA ALLEN TO DZILAM MEXICO...INCLUDING COZUMEL

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF DZILAM TO PROGRESO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 87.7W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 87.7W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 87.5W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 21.3N 88.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 22.0N 88.2W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 30SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 22.1N 88.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 40SE 20SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.0N 89.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 40SE 40SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.6N 90.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 40SE 40SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 21.0N 91.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 40SE 40SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 20.0N 92.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 20.0N 93.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 87.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 04/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2020-10-03 17:37


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 031735
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gamma Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020
100 PM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020

...GAMMA MOVING INLAND OVER THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.4N 87.6W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NNW OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for
* North of Punta Allen to Cancun Mexico, including Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Punta Allen Mexico
* North and west of Cancun to Dzilam Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya Mexico
* West of Dzilam to Progreso Mexico

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was
located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 87.6 West. Gamma is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion
should continue at a slower forward speed today. A turn toward the
north-northwest is expected on Sunday, followed by a turn to the
west or west-southwest Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast
track, the center of Gamma should move farther inland over the
eastern Yucatan Peninsula later today, and be near the north coast
of the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow weakening is likely through tonight while the center
moves over land. Some re-strengthening is expected to begin when
the center moves into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Gamma can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Gamma is expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 8 inches
across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and far western Cuba, with
maximum rainfall amounts as high as 10 to 15 inches possible across
northeastern Quintana Roo and northern Yucatan. This rainfall may
produce life-threatening flash floods.

A separate area of significant rain is expected to develop well away
from the center in the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, northern
Chiapas, and southeast Veracruz, with rainfall of 6 to 8 inches and
isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. The storm will also
result in an area of heavy rains to the south that will affect the
Gulf of Fonseca region between eastern El Salvador, southern
Honduras, and northwest Nicaragua with accumulation of 4-6 inches
and isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches.

Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 5
inches is expected over the Cayman Islands.

WIND: Hurricane conditions could still occur within the Hurricane
Warning area during the next couple of hours. Tropical storm
conditions should continue within the Tropical Storm Warning area on
the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula today, and these conditions
should spread across the remainder of the warning area through
Sunday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible within the Tropical
Storm Watch area later today and on Sunday.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast near and north of where the center crossed the coast. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves. Water levels should begin to subside later today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-10-03 17:01


Original Message :

WTNT65 KNHC 031658
TCUAT5

Tropical Storm Gamma Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020
1200 PM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020

...GAMMA MAKES LANDFALL NEAR TULUM, MEXICO...

Surface observations and satellite images indicate that the center
of Tropical Storm Gamma made landfall in the northeast Yucatan
Peninsula near Tulum, Mexico, around 1145 AM CDT. The storm was
very close to hurricane strength at landfall, with maximum
sustained winds near 70 MPH (110 MPH) with higher gusts.

A weather station at Xel-Ha Park, along the Yucatan coast just
north of Tulum, reported a sustained wind of 55 mph (89 km/h) and a
gust to 68 mph (109 km/h) within the past hour.


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 87.5W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM N OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-10-03 15:00


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 031457
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Gamma Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020
1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020

Observations from both the Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunters
indicate that Gamma has continued to strengthen this morning. The
cloud pattern has continued to become better organized, with an eye
trying to become evident on high-resolution satellite images from
the GOES-16 mesoscale sectors. Flight-level and SFMR-observed
surface winds from the aircraft support an intensity of 60 kt, and
the storm could strengthen a little more as long as the center
remains over water. Since Gamma will be near or at hurricane
intensity when it makes landfall later today, the government of
Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for a portion of the
northeastern Yucatan Peninsula. Gamma should weaken some while it
moves over land tonight. Some re-intensification is likely after
the center moves into the southern Gulf of Mexico. However, the
numerical guidance does not show much strengthening during the next
few days, possibly due to the influence of drier air and/or the
interaction with another area of low pressure to the east of Gamma.
The official intensity forecast is near or above the model
consensus.

Gamma continues northwestward at near 8 kt. The cyclone is
expected to turn north-northwestward and move through a break in
the subtropical ridge through 36 hours or so. Thereafter, a trough
to the north moves eastward, bypassing Gamma, and later in the
forecast period a ridge builds weakly over the Gulf of Mexico.
This should cause the cyclone to turn toward the west and
southwest. The official track forecast is close to the multi-model
consensus, TVCN.

Although Gamma has strengthened, its biggest threat continues to be
torrential rains, flooding, and mudslides especially near and over
mountainous terrain.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Gamma is expected to produce heavy rainfall for several
days over portions of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan
Peninsula, Central America, and far western Cuba. This
rainfall could result in life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides, particularly in the mountainous regions of
southeastern Mexico and Central America.

2. Gamma is very near hurricane strength and will be near or at
hurricane intensity when the center moves inland over the Yucatan
Peninsula later today. A Hurricane Warning is now in effect
for portions of the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, where
tropical storm conditions are already occurring. Tropical storm
conditions are expected along the north coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula within the Tropical Storm Warning area later today
and on Sunday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 20.0N 87.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 20.8N 87.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
24H 04/1200Z 21.8N 88.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 05/0000Z 22.2N 88.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 22.3N 88.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 06/0000Z 22.1N 89.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 22.0N 91.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 21.0N 92.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 20.0N 93.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-10-03 14:58


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 031455
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gamma Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020
1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020

...GAMMA CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT NEARS THE EAST COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 87.3W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SE OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from north of Punta Allen to
Cancun, including Cozumel.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for
* North of Punta Allen to Cancun Mexico, including Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Punta Allen Mexico
* North and west of Cancun to Dzilam Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya Mexico
* West of Dzilam to Progreso Mexico

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 6
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was
located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 87.3 West. Gamma is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion
should continue at a slower forward speed today. A turn toward the
north-northwest is expected on Sunday, followed by a turn to the
west or west-southwest Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast
track, the center of Gamma should move inland over the eastern
Yucatan Peninsula later today, and be near the north coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gamma is likely to be near or at hurricane
strength when it makes landfall in the eastern Yucatan Peninsula.
Some weakening is expected after landfall.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center. A station at Cancun, Mexico, reported a sustained
wind of 46 mph (74 km/h) and a gust to 55 mph (89 km/h) within the
past few hours. A station at Xcaret Park near Playa del Carmen
recently reported a sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust to
54 mph (87 km/h).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter
observations is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Gamma can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Gamma is expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 8 inches
across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and far western Cuba, with
maximum rainfall amounts as high as 10 to 15 inches possible across
northeastern Quintana Roo and northern Yucatan. This rainfall may
produce life-threatening flash floods.

A separate area of significant rain is expected to develop well away
from the center in the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, northern
Chiapas, and southeast Veracruz, with rainfall of 6 to 8 inches and
isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. The storm will also
result in an area of heavy rains to the south that will affect the
Gulf of Fonseca region between eastern El Salvador, southern
Honduras, and northwest Nicaragua with accumulation of 4-6 inches
and isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches.

Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 5
inches is expected over the Cayman Islands.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area during the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions
are spreading into the Tropical Storm Warning area on the east coast
of the Yucatan Peninsula, and these conditions should spread across
the remainder of the warning area through Sunday. Tropical Storm
conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area later
today and on Sunday.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Berg

>

2020-10-03 14:58


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 031455
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM GAMMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020
1500 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO
CANCUN...INCLUDING COZUMEL.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
* NORTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO CANCUN MEXICO INCLUDING COZUMEL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA HERRERO TO PUNTA ALLEN MEXICO
* NORTH AND WEST OF CANCUN TO DZILAM MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF PUNTA HERRERO TO PUERTO COSTA MAYA MEXICO
* WEST OF DZILAM TO PROGRESO MEXICO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 6
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 87.3W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 87.3W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 87.2W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.8N 87.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 21.8N 88.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 30SE 20SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 22.2N 88.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 40SE 20SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.3N 88.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 40SE 40SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.1N 89.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 40SE 40SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.0N 91.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 40SE 40SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 21.0N 92.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 20.0N 93.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 87.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 03/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2020-10-03 11:47


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 031144
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gamma Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020
700 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020

...GAMMA STRENGTHENS SOME MORE AS IT APPROACHES THE EAST COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 87.2W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSE OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Dzilam Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya Mexico
* West of Dzilam to Progreso Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was
located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 87.2 West. Gamma is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion
should continue at a slower forward speed today. A turn toward the
north is expected on Sunday, followed by a turn to the west or
west-southwest Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast track, the
center of Gamma should move inland over the eastern Yucatan
Peninsula later today, and be near the north coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula on Sunday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph
(100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight additional strengthening
is possible before Gamma makes landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula
today. After landfall, some weakening is expected.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter
observations is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Gamma can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Gamma is expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 8 inches
across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and far western Cuba, with
maximum rainfall amounts as high as 10 to 15 inches possible across
the northeastern portion of the Mexican state of Quintana Roo. This
rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods.

A separate area of significant rain is expected to develop well away
from the center in the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, and
northern Chiapas with rainfall of 8 to 12 inches and isolated
maximum amounts of 20 inches. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 5 inches is
expected in the Bay Islands of Honduras and over the Cayman Islands.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are spreading into the Tropical
Storm Warning area on the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, and
these conditions should spread across the remainder of the warning
area through Sunday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible
within the Tropical Storm Watch area later today and on Sunday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-10-03 09:07


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 030905
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Gamma Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020
400 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020

Satellite imagery and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate that Gamma is strengthening. A central
dense overcast with cloud tops to -85C has formed, along with an
outer convective band in the eastern semicircle. The aircraft has
reported maximum 850 mb flight-level winds of 58 kt and reliable-
looking surface wind estimates from the Stepped Frequency Microwave
Radiometer of 40-45 kt. Based on this, the initial intensity is
increased to 45 kt.

The initial motion is again a little to the left of the previous
advisory, 305/8 kt. During the next 24-36 h, Gamma is expected to
turn northward as it tries to recurve into a break in the
subtropical ridge caused by a mid-latitude trough over the eastern
United States. The track guidance, however, is in good agreement
that the trough will bypass the tropical cyclone, with a ridge
building to the north after 36 h. This should cause Gamma to turn
westward or southwestward between the ridge and the Central
American cyclonic gyre to the south. There is uncertainty as to
whether Gamma will move over the Gulf of Mexico before this turn
occurs, as the ECMWF keeps the center inland or very near the
coast. The new forecast track is north of the ECMWF, but a little
to the south of the previous track. The foreast track calls for
landfall on the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula in about 12 h,
followed by the center reaching the Gulf of Mexico in about 36 h
and a track near the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula thereafter.

Conditions appear favorable for strengthening until landfall, and
the forecast 12-h intensity of 50 kt could be conservative given
current trends. The remainder of the intensity forecast is quite
uncertain due to the possibility of land interaction, dry air
entrainment, shear, and possible interaction with another system to
the east. The intensity guidance again does not show much
strengthening if Gamma emerges into the Gulf of Mexico, and that
part of the new intensity forecast has only minor adjustments from
the previous one. It should be noted that several models show a low
pressure area over the northern Gulf of Mexico after 120 h. Whether
this will be Gamma or a new system is unclear at this time.

The biggest threat from this large and slow-moving storm is the
the potential for heavy rainfall and flooding, particularly near
and over mountainous terrain.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Gamma is expected to produce heavy rainfall that could result in
life-threatening flash flooding over portions of the Yucatan
Peninsula, far western Cuba and well away from the center in
the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas.

2. Gamma is forecast to bring tropical storm conditions to portions
of the Yucatan Peninsula today and Sunday, where a Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 19.4N 86.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 20.2N 87.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 21.1N 87.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 04/1800Z 21.7N 88.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 05/0600Z 21.8N 88.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 05/1800Z 21.6N 89.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 21.2N 90.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 20.5N 92.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 19.5N 93.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-10-03 09:03


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 030900
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gamma Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020
400 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020

...GAMMA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 86.9W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Cabo Catoche to
Dzilam, and a Tropical Storm Watch for the north coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula west of Dzilam to Progreso.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Dzilam Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya Mexico
* West of Dzilam to Progreso Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was
located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 86.9 West. Gamma is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion
should continue at a slower forward speed today. A turn toward the
north is expected on Sunday, followed by a turn to the west or
west-southwest Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast track, the
center of Gamma should move inland over the northeastern Yucatan
Peninsula later today, and be near the north coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula on Sunday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph
(85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected
before Gamma makes landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula. After
landfall, a slight weakening is expected.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure extrapolated by the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is 992 mb (29.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Gamma can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Gamma is expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 8 inches
across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and far western Cuba, with
maximum rainfall amounts as high as 10 to 15 inches possible across
the northeastern portion of the Mexican state of Quintana Roo. This
rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods.

A separate area of significant rain is expected to develop well away
from the center in the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, and
northern Chiapas with rainfall of 8 to 12 inches and isolated
maximum amounts of 20 inches. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 5 inches is
expected in the Bay Islands of Honduras and over the Cayman Islands.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are spreading into the Tropical
Storm Warning area on the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, and
these conditions should spread across the remainder of the warning
area through Sunday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible
within the Tropical Storm Watch area later today and on Sunday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-10-03 09:03


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 030900
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM GAMMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020
0900 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE TO
DZILAM...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WEST OF DZILAM TO PROGRESO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA HERRERO TO DZILAM MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF PUNTA HERRERO TO PUERTO COSTA MAYA MEXICO
* WEST OF DZILAM TO PROGRESO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 86.9W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 40SE 0SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 86.9W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 86.6W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.2N 87.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 21.1N 87.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 20SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.7N 88.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 40SE 20SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.8N 88.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 40SE 40SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.6N 89.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 40SE 40SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.2N 90.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 40SE 40SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 20.5N 92.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 19.5N 93.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 86.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 03/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2020-10-03 06:01


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 030559
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gamma Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020
100 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020

...GAMMA STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 86.6W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Cabo Catoche Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya Mexico
* West of Cabo Catoche to Dzilam Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was
located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 86.6 West. Gamma is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slower
northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days,
followed by a turn to the west or west-southwest. On the forecast
track, the center of Gamma should be near the northeastern Yucatan
Peninsula later today.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph
(70 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected
before Gamma moves inland over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula
later today. After landfall, slight weakening or little change in
strength is expected.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is 996 mb (29.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Gamma can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Gamma is expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 8 inches
across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and far western Cuba, with
maximum rainfall amounts as high as 10 to 15 inches possible across
the northeastern portion of the Mexican state of Quintana Roo. This
rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods.

A separate area of significant rain is expected to develop well away
from the center in the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, and
northern Chiapas with rainfall of 8 to 12 inches and isolated
maximum amounts of 20 inches. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 5 inches is
expected in the Bay Islands of Honduras and over the Cayman Islands.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical
Storm Warning area by later this morning, and are possible within
the Tropical Storm Watch area later today and on Sunday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-10-03 02:34


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 030231
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gamma Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020
1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 02 2020

...GAMMA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE LANDFALL IN THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TOMORROW...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 86.1W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Cabo Catoche Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya Mexico
* West of Cabo Catoche to Dzilam Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was
located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 86.1 West. Gamma is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slower
northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days,
followed by a turn to the west or west-southwest. On the forecast
track, the center of Gamma should be near the northeastern
Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is expected before Gamma moves inland over the
northeastern Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday. After landfall, slight
weakening or little change in strength is expected.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunters is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Gamma can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Gamma is expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 8 inches
across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and far western Cuba, with
maximum rainfall amounts as high as 10 to 15 inches possible across
the northeastern portion of the Mexican state of Quintana Roo. This
rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods.

A separate area of significant rain is expected to develop well away
from the center in the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, and
northern Chiapas with rainfall of 8 to 12 inches and isolated
maximum amounts of 20 inches. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 5 inches is
expected in the Bay Islands of Honduras and over the Cayman Islands.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical
Storm Warning area by Saturday morning, and are possible within the
Tropical Storm Watch area on Saturday and Sunday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2020-10-03 02:33


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 030231
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM GAMMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020
0300 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA HERRERO TO CABO CATOCHE MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF PUNTA HERRERO TO PUERTO COSTA MAYA MEXICO
* WEST OF CABO CATOCHE TO DZILAM MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 86.1W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 86.1W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 85.8W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.8N 86.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.8N 87.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 20SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 21.6N 88.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 40SE 20SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 22.0N 88.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 40SE 40SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.9N 88.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...110NE 40SE 40SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.7N 90.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 40SE 40SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 21.0N 91.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 20.3N 92.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 86.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 03/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

2020-10-03 00:00


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 022357
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gamma Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020
700 PM CDT Fri Oct 02 2020

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM GAMMA OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 85.8W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Cabo Catoche Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya Mexico
* West of Cabo Catoche to Dzilam Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was
located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 85.8 West. Gamma is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a gradual turn
toward the north-northwest with a decrease in forward speed is
expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the
center of the tropical cyclone should be near the northeastern
Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next few days.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunters is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Gamma can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Gamma is expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 8
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches in portions of the
Yucatan Peninsula and far western Cuba. A separate area of
significant rain is expected to develop well away from the center in
the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas with
rainfall of 8 to 12 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 20
inches. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.

Rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 5 inches is
expected in the Bay Islands of Honduras and over the Cayman Islands.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical
Storm Warning area by Saturday morning, and are possible within the
Tropical Storm Watch area on Saturday and Sunday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2020-10-02 20:36


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 022034
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Twenty-Five Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020
400 PM CDT Fri Oct 02 2020

Convective banding features have become a little better defined
over the southern portion of the circulation, but otherwise the
system has not changed much in organization since earlier today.
The current intensity estimate remains at 30 kt in agreement with a
Dvorak estimate from TAFB, and scatterometer observations
from a few hours ago. The SHIPS model output now shows some
south-southwesterly shear affecting the system during the next few
days. Otherwise, the environment should favor at least gradual
strengthening, and the cyclone is likely to become a tropical storm
prior to moving near the Yucatan Peninsula. The official intensity
forecast is within the range of most of the model guidance.

The initial motion estimate is the same as in the morning advisory,
315/8 kt. The depression should move along the southwestern
periphery of a mid-tropospheric high pressure area for the next
couple of days, causing the cyclone to move on a northwestward to
north-northwestward heading. Later in the forecast period, the
global models build a weak ridge across the northern half of the
Gulf of Mexico. This should induce the cyclone to turn westward or
even a little south of west in 3-5 days. The latest NHC forecast
lies between the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus
predictions, TVCA and HCCA, and is quite similar to the previous
official forecast.

At this time, the biggest threat from this slow-moving system is
rain and flooding, particularly near and over mountainous terrain.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The system is expected to produce heavy rainfall that could
result in life-threatening flash flooding over portions of the
Yucatan Peninsula, far western Cuba and well away from the center in
the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas.

2. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm and bring
tropical storm conditions to portions of the Yucatan Peninsula on
Saturday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 18.8N 85.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 19.5N 86.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 20.5N 87.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 21.6N 87.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 22.3N 87.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 05/0600Z 22.5N 88.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 22.5N 88.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 22.5N 91.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 22.0N 92.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-10-02 20:36


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 022034
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twenty-Five Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020
400 PM CDT Fri Oct 02 2020

...DEPRESSION LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 85.3W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Cabo Catoche Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya Mexico
* West of Cabo Catoche to Dzilam Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Twenty-Five was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 85.3
West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15
km/h), and a gradual turn toward the north-northwest with a decrease
in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, the center of the tropical cyclone should be near
the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to
become a tropical storm tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 8
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches in portions of the
Yucatan Peninsula and far western Cuba. A separate area of
significant rain is expected to develop well away from the center in
the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas with
rainfall of 8 to 12 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 20
inches. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.

Rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 5 inches is
expected in the Bay Islands of Honduras and over the Cayman Islands.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical
Storm Warning area by Saturday morning, and are possible within the
Tropical Storm Watch area on Saturday and Sunday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-10-02 20:35


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 022033
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020
2100 UTC FRI OCT 02 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA HERRERO TO CABO CATOCHE MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF PUNTA HERRERO TO PUERTO COSTA MAYA MEXICO
* WEST OF CABO CATOCHE TO DZILAM MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 85.3W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 85.3W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 85.0W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.5N 86.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.5N 87.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 21.6N 87.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 22.3N 87.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 22.5N 88.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.5N 88.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 50SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 22.5N 91.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 22.0N 92.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 85.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 03/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2020-10-02 17:42


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 021740
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twenty-Five Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020
200 PM EDT Fri Oct 02 2020

...DEPRESSION HEADED FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 84.9W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Cabo Catoche Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya Mexico
* West of Cabo Catoche to Dzilam Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Twenty-Five was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 84.9
West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13
km/h), and a gradual turn toward the north-northwest with a decrease
in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, the center of the tropical cyclone should be near
the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast, and the depression is
expected to become a tropical storm by Saturday morning.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 8
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches in portions of the
Yucatan Peninsula and far western Cuba. A separate area of
significant rain is expected to develop well away from the center in
the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas, with
rainfall of 8 to 12 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 20
inches. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.

Rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 5 inches is
expected in the Bay Islands of Honduras.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical
Storm Warning area by early Saturday, and are possible within the
Tropical Storm Watch area on Saturday and Sunday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-10-02 14:58


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 021456
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Twenty-Five Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020
1100 AM EDT Fri Oct 02 2020

Visible satellite images show that cloudiness and showers associated
with the low pressure area over the northwestern Caribbean Sea have
become significantly better organized since yesterday, with
convective banding features becoming prominent. Moreover, low cloud
motions suggest that a closed circulation has become better defined.
Therefore, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression
Twenty-Five at this time. The initial intensity estimate is 30 kt
based on Dvorak T-numbers, but an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today to
provide a better intensity estimate. Sea surface temperatures are
very warm, near 30 deg C, and vertical shear should remain low for
at least the next couple of days, so the cyclone is likely to become
a tropical storm by the time it nears the Yucatan Peninsula
tomorrow. The main impediment to strengthening over the next few
days should be the interaction with land. Given the uncertainties
about how far offshore the center will be over the next several
days, the official intensity forecast is conservative.

Since there is still a lot of scatter in the center fixes, the
initial motion estimate, 315/8 kt, is rather uncertain. For the
next couple of days, the system is expected to move northwestward to
north-northwestward on the southwestern edge of a mid-level high
pressure area. This would take the center near or over the
northeastern Yucatan Peninsula. After about 48 hours, the steering
currents are not well-defined and there is considerable spread in
the track models. At this time, it appears the cyclone should move
slowly westward over the latter part of the forecast period in
response to weak ridging over the north-central Gulf of Mexico. The
official forecast is near or a little north of the corrected and
simple model consensus predictions.

Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches have been issued for a portion
of the Yucatan Peninsula.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The system is expected to produce heavy rainfall that could
result in life-threatening flash flooding over portions of the
Yucatan Peninsula, far western Cuba and well away from the center in
the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas.

2. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm and bring
tropical storm conditions to portions of the Yucatan Peninsula on
Saturday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 18.1N 84.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 18.9N 85.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 19.8N 86.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 20.6N 87.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 04/1200Z 21.4N 87.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
60H 05/0000Z 22.0N 87.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 22.0N 88.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 21.5N 90.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 21.5N 92.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-10-02 14:58


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 021455
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twenty-Five Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020
1100 AM EDT Fri Oct 02 2020

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN...
...WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 84.7W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Punta Herrero to Cabo Catoche,
and a Tropical Storm Watch south of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa
Maya and west of Cabo Catoche to Dzilam.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Cabo Catoche

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya
* West of Cabo Catoche to Dzilam

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Twenty-Five was located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 84.7
West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15
km/h), and a gradual turn toward the north-northwest with a
decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of
days. On the forecast track, the center of the tropical cyclone
should be near the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to
become a tropical storm by Saturday morning.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 8
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches in portions of the
Yucatan Peninsula and far western Cuba. A separate area of
significant rain is expected to develop well away from the center in
the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas, with
rainfall of 8 to 12 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 20
inches. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.

Rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 5 inches is
expected in the Bay Islands of Honduras.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical
Storm Warning area by early Saturday, and are possible within the
Tropical Storm Watch area on Saturday and Sunday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-10-02 14:57


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 021455
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020
1500 UTC FRI OCT 02 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA HERRERO TO CABO
CATOCHE...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH SOUTH OF PUNTA HERRERO TO
PUERTO COSTA MAYA AND WEST OF CABO CATOCHE TO DZILAM.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA HERRERO TO CABO CATOCHE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF PUNTA HERRERO TO PUERTO COSTA MAYA
* WEST OF CABO CATOCHE TO DZILAM

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 84.7W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 84.7W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 84.4W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 18.9N 85.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.8N 86.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.6N 87.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 21.4N 87.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 22.0N 87.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.0N 88.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 30SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 21.5N 90.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 21.5N 92.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 84.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 02/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>