Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for LOWELL-20
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

2020-09-26 05:02


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 252200 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE 17E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 021A CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE 17E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 021A CORRECTED
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 17E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 21.6N 129.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.6N 129.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 21.5N 132.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 21.3N 135.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 21.1N 137.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 21.0N 140.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 20.9N 142.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 20.9N 144.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 21.4N 148.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
252200Z POSITION NEAR 21.6N 130.7W.
25SEP20. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE 17E (LOWELL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
949 NM SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z
IS 12 FEET.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTION OF STORM STATE.//
NNNN

>

2020-09-26 04:04


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 260402

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 26.09.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOWELL ANALYSED POSITION : 21.7N 131.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 26.09.2020 0 21.7N 131.4W 1007 29
1200UTC 26.09.2020 12 21.4N 133.8W 1010 25
0000UTC 27.09.2020 24 21.4N 136.6W 1010 26
1200UTC 27.09.2020 36 21.4N 139.2W 1011 27
0000UTC 28.09.2020 48 21.6N 141.6W 1011 25
1200UTC 28.09.2020 60 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 260401

>

2020-09-26 04:04


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 260401

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 26.09.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOWELL ANALYSED POSITION : 21.7N 131.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 26.09.2020 21.7N 131.4W WEAK
12UTC 26.09.2020 21.4N 133.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.09.2020 21.4N 136.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.09.2020 21.4N 139.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.09.2020 21.6N 141.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.09.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 260401

>

2020-09-25 20:41


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 252039
TCDEP2

Post-Tropical Cyclone Lowell Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172020
1100 AM HST Fri Sep 25 2020

Lowell has been largely devoid of deep convection for more than 18
hours, with only a small shrinking patch left more than 100 n mi
northeast of the center. Therefore, Lowell is now considered a a
post-tropical remnant low, and this is the last advisory from NHC.
The initial intensity is estimated to be 30 kt.

The remnant low is moving westward at about 11 kt. A continued
westward motion but at a slightly faster pace should occur during
the next few days while the remnant low gradually weakens over cool
waters and in an environment of stable air and increasing westerly
shear. The remnant low is forecast to dissipate a few hundred miles
east-northeast of the Hawaiian Islands in 4 or 5 days.

For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 21.6N 130.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 26/0600Z 21.5N 132.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 26/1800Z 21.3N 135.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 27/0600Z 21.1N 137.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 27/1800Z 21.0N 140.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 28/0600Z 20.9N 142.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/1800Z 20.9N 144.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/1800Z 21.4N 148.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2020-09-25 20:39


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 252038
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Lowell Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172020
1100 AM HST Fri Sep 25 2020

...LOWELL IS NOW A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 130.5W
ABOUT 1320 MI...2120 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Lowell was located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 130.5 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20
km/h). A general westward motion with a slight increase in forward
speed is anticipated into early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Continued weakening is expected during the next few days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant
low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and
on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

2020-09-25 20:39


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 252038
TCMEP2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172020
2100 UTC FRI SEP 25 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 130.5W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 75SE 75SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 130.5W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 129.8W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 21.5N 132.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 21.3N 135.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 21.1N 137.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 21.0N 140.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 20.9N 142.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 20.9N 144.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 21.4N 148.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 130.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

2020-09-25 14:44


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 251441
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172020
500 AM HST Fri Sep 25 2020

Lowell has produced almost no deep convection within 100 n mi of its
center for more than 12 hours. As noted in the previous advisory,
although there is still a small patch of convection well to
east-northeast, it is pushing the boundaries of what can reasonably
be considered as organized deep convection. If convection does not
redevelop closer to Lowell's center soon, it could become
post-tropical as soon as this afternoon. Earlier ASCAT-C data showed
a wide area of winds around 35 kt, so the intensity is held at that
value for this advisory.

There were no noteworthy changes made to the NHC forecast. Low- to
mid-level ridging to the north of Lowell is expected to steer the
cyclone just south of due west for the next several days. A break in
the ridge could allow it to turn northward near day 5. A combination
of cool ocean temperatures and westerly shear should prevent the
redevelopment of organized convection, and Lowell will gradually
spin down as a result. The NHC forecast conservatively shows a day 5
point, but Lowell could also dissipate by then. The NHC forecast is
near the middle of the tightly clustered track and intensity
guidance envelopes.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 21.6N 129.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 21.5N 131.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 26/1200Z 21.3N 133.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 27/0000Z 21.2N 136.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 27/1200Z 21.1N 139.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 28/0000Z 21.1N 141.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/1200Z 21.1N 143.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/1200Z 21.5N 147.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/1200Z 23.0N 150.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2020-09-25 14:40


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 251438
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lowell Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172020
500 AM HST Fri Sep 25 2020

...LACKLUSTER LOWELL LUMBERING WESTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL SOON...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 129.2W
ABOUT 1235 MI...1990 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lowell was
located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 129.2 West. Lowell is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A general westward
motion with a slight increase in forward speed is anticipated into
early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected. Lowell will likely become a
post-tropical remnant low later today or early Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


>

2020-09-25 14:39


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 251438
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172020
1500 UTC FRI SEP 25 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 129.2W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..165NE 75SE 75SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 129.2W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 128.6W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 21.5N 131.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 21.3N 133.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 21.2N 136.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 21.1N 139.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 21.1N 141.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 21.1N 143.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 21.5N 147.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 23.0N 150.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 129.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY



>

2020-09-25 08:41


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 250839
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172020
1100 PM HST Thu Sep 24 2020

Only a small area of deep convection is lagging about 100 n mi east
of Lowell's center, but a recent scatterometer pass showed that
maximum winds are still around 35 kt. The areal coverage of
Lowell's convection and its distance from the center already put it
on the margins of what is considered organized deep convection.
Cold waters and increasing westerly to southwesterly shear
over the next 24 hours should finally do the convection in, causing
Lowell to lose tropical cyclone status on Friday. Even stronger
shear is forecast to cause the remnant low to gradually weaken
through the end of the 5-day forecast period.

Fixes based on infrared and microwave satellite imagery indicate
that Lowell has begun to lose some latitude, and the initial motion
is just south of due west (265/10 kt). The south-of-due-west
motion is forecast to continue for the next 2-3 days courtesy of
strong low- to mid-level ridging north of Lowell. The remnant low
should then gradually turn toward the west-northwest and slow down
by the end of the forecast period when it reaches a break in the
ridge ahead of a cold front north of the Hawaiian Islands. The new
NHC track forecast is similar to the previous prediction and
remains embedded within the tightly clustered guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 21.6N 128.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 21.5N 129.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 21.4N 132.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 26/1800Z 21.3N 135.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 27/0600Z 21.2N 137.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 27/1800Z 21.1N 140.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/0600Z 21.1N 142.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/0600Z 21.5N 146.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/0600Z 22.7N 149.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2020-09-25 08:39


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 250838
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lowell Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172020
1100 PM HST Thu Sep 24 2020

...LOWELL EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 128.0W
ABOUT 1160 MI...1865 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lowell was
located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 128.0 West. Lowell is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general
motion, with some increase in forward speed, is expected to
continue into early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast, and Lowell is expected to become a
remnant low on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

2020-09-25 08:39


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 250838
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172020
0900 UTC FRI SEP 25 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 128.0W AT 25/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 128.0W AT 25/0900Z
AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 127.4W

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 21.5N 129.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 21.4N 132.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 21.3N 135.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 21.2N 137.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 21.1N 140.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 21.1N 142.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 21.5N 146.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 22.7N 149.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 128.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

2020-09-25 02:34


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 250232
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172020
500 PM HST Thu Sep 24 2020

Lowell is now producing a small band of deep convection in the
southeastern semicircle, but as in the previous advisory it is
otherwise largely a low-level cloud swirl. Satellite intensity
estimates have decreased a little over the past 6 h, so the initial
intensity is lowered to 35 kt. The cyclone is over cool sea
surface temperatures of 24C, and it should encounter even cooler
waters during the next day or two. Between this, increasing
westerly shear, and entrainment of stable air, Lowell should
degenerate to a remnant low between 24-36 h, if not sooner. The
global models indicate that the remnant low is likely to survive
through 120 h, and the intensity forecast follows this guidance.

The initial motion is now westward or 275/10 kt. A generally
westward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected for
the next several days as Lowell or its remnants are steered by
easterly flow on the south side of a deep-layer ridge. The track
guidance remains tightly clustered, and the new track forecast is
changed little from the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 21.8N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 21.9N 128.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 21.8N 131.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 21.6N 134.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 27/0000Z 21.5N 136.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 27/1200Z 21.4N 139.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/0000Z 21.4N 142.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/0000Z 21.5N 146.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/0000Z 22.5N 149.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-09-25 02:33


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 250232
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lowell Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172020
500 PM HST Thu Sep 24 2020

...LOWELL SLOWLY WEAKENING...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 127.0W
ABOUT 1095 MI...1760 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lowell was
located near latitude 21.8 North, longitude 127.0 West. Lowell is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A westward motion at
a slightly faster forward speed is expected for the next several
days.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated, and Lowell is forecast to
become a remnant low on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

2020-09-25 02:33


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 250232
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172020
0300 UTC FRI SEP 25 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 127.0W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 127.0W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 126.4W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 21.9N 128.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 21.8N 131.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 21.6N 134.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 21.5N 136.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 21.4N 139.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 21.4N 142.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 21.5N 146.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 22.5N 149.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 127.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



>

2020-09-24 20:35


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 242033
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172020
1100 AM HST Thu Sep 24 2020

Lowell is producing a small amount of deep convection over the
northeastern quadrant, but it is otherwise largely a low-level cloud
swirl. A recent partial ASCAT pass still showed an area of 35-40 kt
winds to the north of the center, and based on that data, the
initial intensity is held at 40 kt. The cyclone is already over cool
25 C waters and it is headed for even cooler waters during the next
day or two. These unfavorable oceanic conditions combined with a
stable air mass and an increase in westerly shear should cause the
cyclone to degenerate into a remnant low within the next 36 hours.
The remnant low is expected to gradually weaken through the end of
the forecast period.

The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at about 10 kt. A
sightly faster westward motion is expected during the next several
days as the storm moves on the south side of a deep-layer high
pressure system. The models are tightly clustered, and the NHC
track forecast is similar to the previous one.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 21.7N 125.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 21.9N 127.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 21.8N 129.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 21.7N 132.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 26/1800Z 21.5N 135.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 27/0600Z 21.4N 138.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/1800Z 21.4N 140.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 28/1800Z 21.7N 145.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 29/1800Z 22.3N 148.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2020-09-24 20:33


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 242032
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lowell Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172020
1100 AM HST Thu Sep 24 2020

...LOWELL HOLDING STEADY IN STRENGTH FOR NOW BUT FORECAST TO
WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 125.8W
ABOUT 1020 MI...1640 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lowell was
located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 125.8 West. Lowell is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A westward
motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected for the next
several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is anticipated. Lowell is forecast to become a
remnant low by early Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

2020-09-24 20:33


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 242032
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172020
2100 UTC THU SEP 24 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 125.8W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..135NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 125.8W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 125.3W

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 21.9N 127.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 21.8N 129.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 21.7N 132.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 21.5N 135.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 21.4N 138.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 21.4N 140.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 21.7N 145.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 22.3N 148.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 125.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

2020-09-24 16:02


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 241601

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 24.09.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BETA ANALYSED POSITION : 32.6N 90.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL222020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 24.09.2020 0 32.6N 90.3W 1005 23
0000UTC 25.09.2020 12 33.8N 87.6W 1007 18
1200UTC 25.09.2020 24 34.9N 86.5W 1011 12
0000UTC 26.09.2020 36 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ANALYSED POSITION : 21.3N 124.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 24.09.2020 0 21.3N 124.6W 1000 37
0000UTC 25.09.2020 12 21.7N 126.5W 1001 37
1200UTC 25.09.2020 24 21.7N 128.9W 1004 34
0000UTC 26.09.2020 36 21.5N 131.8W 1007 31
1200UTC 26.09.2020 48 21.2N 134.6W 1009 28
0000UTC 27.09.2020 60 20.8N 137.5W 1010 27
1200UTC 27.09.2020 72 20.7N 140.2W 1011 27
0000UTC 28.09.2020 84 20.6N 142.9W 1011 25
1200UTC 28.09.2020 96 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 241601

>

2020-09-24 16:02


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 241601

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 24.09.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BETA ANALYSED POSITION : 32.6N 90.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL222020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 24.09.2020 32.6N 90.3W WEAK
00UTC 25.09.2020 33.8N 87.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.09.2020 34.9N 86.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.09.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ANALYSED POSITION : 21.3N 124.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 24.09.2020 21.3N 124.6W WEAK
00UTC 25.09.2020 21.7N 126.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.09.2020 21.7N 128.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.09.2020 21.5N 131.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.09.2020 21.2N 134.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.09.2020 20.8N 137.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.09.2020 20.7N 140.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.09.2020 20.6N 142.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.09.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 241601

>

2020-09-24 14:37


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 241435
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172020
500 AM HST Thu Sep 24 2020

Lowell hasn't changed much. Cloud tops associated with the areas of
remaining convection east of the lowly tropical storm's center have
warmed slightly during the past few hours, but not enough to change
satellite intensity estimates. The intensity is therefore held at
40 kt, in line with earlier ASCAT data.

Virtually no change was made to any aspect of the NHC forecast. A
mid-level ridge to the north of Lowell will likely steer the
tropical storm westward for the next day or two. Lowell will move
over gradually cooler waters and should weaken in response. A
favorable upper-air environment may help the tropical cyclone to
maintain its convection for up to 36 hours, but an increase in
westerly wind shear should put an end to any remaining organized
convection after that. Based on simulated satellite fields, several
models forecast that it will become a remnant low even sooner than
that. Low-level tradewind flow should take over the steering once
the cyclone becomes a shallow remnant low, resulting in a slightly
faster, but generally similar westward motion. Both the track and
intensity forecasts are nearly identical to the multi-model
consensus throughout the forecast period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 21.5N 124.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 21.7N 126.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 21.8N 128.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 21.7N 131.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 21.5N 133.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 27/0000Z 21.4N 136.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/1200Z 21.4N 139.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 28/1200Z 21.5N 144.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 29/1200Z 21.5N 148.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2020-09-24 14:36


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 241434
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lowell Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172020
500 AM HST Thu Sep 24 2020

...LOWLY LOWELL LOOKS ABOUT THE SAME...
...FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 124.9W
ABOUT 965 MI...1550 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lowell was
located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 124.9 West. Lowell is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A generally
westward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected for
the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is anticipated. Lowell is forecast to become a
remnant low by early Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2020-09-24 14:35


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 241433
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172020
1500 UTC THU SEP 24 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 124.9W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 124.9W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 124.4W

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 21.7N 126.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 21.8N 128.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 21.7N 131.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 21.5N 133.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 21.4N 136.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 21.4N 139.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 21.5N 144.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 21.5N 148.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 124.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY



>

2020-09-24 09:27


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 241000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 17E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 17E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 21.1N 123.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1N 123.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 21.4N 125.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 21.7N 127.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 21.6N 129.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 21.5N 132.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 21.3N 134.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 21.2N 137.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 21.2N 142.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 21.7N 146.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
241000Z POSITION NEAR 21.2N 123.8W.
24SEP20. TROPICAL STORM 17E (LOWELL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 768
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 241600Z, 242200Z, 250400Z AND 251000Z.
//
NNNN

>

2020-09-24 08:41


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 240838
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172020
1100 PM HST Wed Sep 23 2020

Lowell is maintaining status quo, with a few bands of deep
convection located 30 n mi or more to the east of the exposed
center. A recent ASCAT-C pass just clipped the eastern edge of the
tropical-storm-force wind field and had vectors as high as 36 to 37
kt, so it is assumed that Lowell's intensity is still 40 kt.

The available shear analyses indicate that the deep-layer shear
over Lowell is low--maybe slightly moderate--but this seems odd
given the cyclone's sheared appearance. Regardless of what the
shear is now, the relative shear magnitude is expected to begin
increasing in about 36 hours as Lowell moves closer to an
upper-level jet stream. The storm will also be moving over
gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures and into a much drier
air mass, and all of these factors should conspire to cause
weakening over the next several days. Global model guidance
indicates that Lowell should lose its deep convection and become a
remnant low by 60 hours, although the ECMWF suggests this could
happen as early as in a day or two.

Lowell has been locked into a west-northwestward motion of 285/9
kt, but the track models insist that it should turn toward the
west very soon as the subtropical ridge to its north strengthens.
The ridge is forecast to remain anchored north of Lowell for the
entire forecast period, causing a gradual acceleration toward the
west or even just south of due west into early next week. The
earlier-noted speed differences among some of the models appear to
have resolved themselves a bit, although the models overall have
sped up. In response, the new NHC track forecast is faster than
the previous prediction, and yet it is still not as fast as the
TVCE multi-model consensus aid or the HCCA model. This probably
means that additional adjustments to forecast speeds are likely in
subsequent advisories.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 21.2N 123.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 21.4N 125.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 21.7N 127.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 21.6N 129.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 21.5N 132.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 26/1800Z 21.3N 134.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/0600Z 21.2N 137.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 28/0600Z 21.2N 142.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 29/0600Z 21.7N 146.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2020-09-24 08:39


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 240837
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lowell Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172020
1100 PM HST Wed Sep 23 2020

...LOWELL GRADUALLY MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 123.7W
ABOUT 890 MI...1435 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lowell was
located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 123.7 West. Lowell is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn
toward the west is expected Thursday morning, with that heading and
a gradual increase in forward speed continuing through early next
week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast to begin by late Thursday. Lowell is
expected to weaken to a tropical depression by late Friday and
become a remnant low by early Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

2020-09-24 08:38


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 240837
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172020
0900 UTC THU SEP 24 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 123.7W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 123.7W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 123.2W

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 21.4N 125.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 21.7N 127.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 21.6N 129.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 21.5N 132.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 21.3N 134.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 21.2N 137.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 21.2N 142.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 21.7N 146.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 123.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

2020-09-24 04:03


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 240402

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 24.09.2020

TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 36.2N 16.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.09.2020 0 36.2N 16.7W 1007 35
1200UTC 24.09.2020 12 35.6N 17.1W 1013 33
0000UTC 25.09.2020 24 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BETA ANALYSED POSITION : 30.8N 92.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL222020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.09.2020 0 30.8N 92.3W 1005 31
1200UTC 24.09.2020 12 32.5N 90.3W 1005 25
0000UTC 25.09.2020 24 33.5N 88.4W 1006 22
1200UTC 25.09.2020 36 35.3N 86.5W 1010 12
0000UTC 26.09.2020 48 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ANALYSED POSITION : 21.1N 122.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.09.2020 0 21.1N 122.4W 999 35
1200UTC 24.09.2020 12 21.3N 124.4W 998 39
0000UTC 25.09.2020 24 21.6N 126.5W 997 41
1200UTC 25.09.2020 36 21.5N 128.6W 1000 39
0000UTC 26.09.2020 48 21.4N 131.3W 1004 34
1200UTC 26.09.2020 60 21.3N 134.0W 1008 30
0000UTC 27.09.2020 72 21.1N 136.9W 1009 29
1200UTC 27.09.2020 84 21.2N 140.1W 1010 30
0000UTC 28.09.2020 96 21.0N 143.0W 1010 26
1200UTC 28.09.2020 108 21.1N 146.1W 1010 25
0000UTC 29.09.2020 120 21.4N 148.6W 1009 22
1200UTC 29.09.2020 132 21.8N 150.2W 1009 19
0000UTC 30.09.2020 144 22.3N 151.2W 1009 18

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 36.4N 31.2E

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.09.2020 144 36.1N 32.3E 1003 30


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 240401

>

2020-09-24 03:05


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 240400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 17E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 17E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 20.9N 122.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.9N 122.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 21.3N 124.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 21.6N 126.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 21.7N 128.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 21.7N 130.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 21.6N 132.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 21.5N 135.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 21.4N 140.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 21.8N 145.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
240400Z POSITION NEAR 21.0N 123.0W.
24SEP20. TROPICAL STORM 17E (LOWELL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 762
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 241000Z, 241600Z, 242200Z AND 250400Z.
//
NNNN

>

2020-09-24 02:45


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 240242
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172020
500 PM HST Wed Sep 23 2020

A band of deep convection continues over the eastern portion of
Lowell's circulation, however visible satellite imagery and a 2318
UTC SSMI microwave overpass indicate that the center is exposed to
the west of that band. Subjective and objective satellite
intensity estimates have decreased and a blend those yields an
initial wind of 40 kt, which is used for this advisory.

The moderate northwesterly shear that is currently plaguing Lowell
is not expected to abate much, so little overall change in strength
in anticipated through early Thursday. After that time, gradually
decreasing sea surface temperatures and a drier and more stable air
mass is predicted to result in gradual weakening. Increasing
westerly shear in about 48 hours should be too much for the
tropical cyclone, and Lowell is expected to degenerate into a
remnant low in 60-72 hours. The updated NHC intensity forecast
is a little below the IVCN intensity consensus and favors the
slightly lower statistical guidance.

The initial motion estimate is still west-northwestward or 285/10
kt. A large deep-layer subtropical ridge to the north and northeast
of Lowell is forecast to build westward during the next few days.
This synoptic pattern should cause Lowell to turn westward
overnight and then continue on a generally westward heading for the
next several days. There are still some forward speed
(along-track) differences among the various dynamical models, but
the NHC track again uses a blend of the various consensus aids,
which typically is the best approach when those longer-range
differences are noted.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 21.0N 122.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 21.3N 124.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 21.6N 126.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 21.7N 128.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 21.7N 130.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 26/1200Z 21.6N 132.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 21.5N 135.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 28/0000Z 21.4N 140.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 29/0000Z 21.8N 145.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-09-24 02:43


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 240241
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lowell Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172020
500 PM HST Wed Sep 23 2020

...LOWELL EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD VERY SOON...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 122.7W
ABOUT 830 MI...1335 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lowell was
located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 122.7 West. Lowell is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A westward
motion is expected to begin this evening and continue into the
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some fluctuations in strength are possible through early Thursday,
but gradual weakening is expected to begin by late Thursday. Lowell
is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression by late Friday and
degenerate into a remnant low early this weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

2020-09-24 02:42


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 240241
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172020
0300 UTC THU SEP 24 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 122.7W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 30SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 122.7W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 122.4W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 21.3N 124.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 21.6N 126.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 21.7N 128.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 21.7N 130.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 21.6N 132.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 21.5N 135.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 21.4N 140.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 21.8N 145.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 122.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>

2020-09-23 21:40


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 232200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 17E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 17E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 20.6N 121.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 121.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 21.1N 123.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 21.4N 125.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 21.6N 127.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 21.7N 129.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 21.6N 131.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 21.5N 134.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 21.2N 139.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 21.7N 144.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
232200Z POSITION NEAR 20.8N 122.2W.
23SEP20. TROPICAL STORM 17E (LOWELL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 765
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 240400Z, 241000Z, 241600Z AND 242200Z.
//
NNNN

>

2020-09-23 20:51


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 232049
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172020
1100 AM HST Wed Sep 23 2020

Unlike earlier today, deep convection has decreased since the
previous advisory with thunderstorms containing cloud tops to near
-70C confined to the southeastern quadrant of the circulation owing
to modest west-northwesterly vertical wind shear and Lowell moving
over a small cold pool/eddy. As a result, the low-level center has
become exposed. Dvorak current-intensity estimates from TAFB and
SAB are T3.0/45 kt, therefore the initial intensity will remain at
45 kt until new ASCAT surface wind data become available.

The initial motion estimate is 285/10 kt. Lowell lies along the
southern periphery of a large, deep-layer subtropical ridge
which has increased Lowell's forward speed slightly, likely due to
the recent decreased in the vertical depth of the convection and
circulation. The strong subtropical ridge to north of Lowell is
expected turn the cyclone westward soon, with that general motion
continuing through the remainder of the forecast period. The latest
NHC track guidance envelope remains tightly packed around the
previous forecast track, so the only change that was required
was to increase the along-track forward speed of Lowell.

The current moderate northwesterly shear is forecast by the GFS and
ECMWF to weaken sightly overnight when Lowell is forecast to move
over a warm eddy. Thus, the intensity forecast was not lowered very
much for the next 36 hours or so. By 48 hours and beyond, however,
the combination of increasing deep-layer vertical wind shear of
more than 20 kt and sea-surface temperatures decreasing to near 24
deg C is expected to induce gradual weakening, with Lowell is
forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by 96 hours. The new NHC
intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and follows
a blend of the NOAA-HCCA, FSSE and IVCN intensity consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 20.7N 122.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 21.1N 123.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 21.4N 125.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 21.6N 127.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 21.7N 129.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 26/0600Z 21.6N 131.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 21.5N 134.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 21.2N 139.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 28/1800Z 21.7N 144.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-09-23 20:50


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 232048
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lowell Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172020
1100 AM HST Wed Sep 23 2020

...LOWELL EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD THIS EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 122.1W
ABOUT 795 MI...1280 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lowell was
located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 122.1 West. Lowell is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue this afternoon. A westward
motion is expected to begin this evening and continue into the
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some fluctuations in strength will be possible during the next day
or so, with slow weakening expected to begin on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

2020-09-23 20:50


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 232048
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172020
2100 UTC WED SEP 23 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 122.1W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 30SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 122.1W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 121.6W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 21.1N 123.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 21.4N 125.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 21.6N 127.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 21.7N 129.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 21.6N 131.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 21.5N 134.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 21.2N 139.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 21.7N 144.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 122.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



>

2020-09-23 15:11


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 231432
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172020
500 AM HST Wed Sep 23 2020

Convective banding has improved a little bit since the previous
advisory, but not enough to increase the various satellite intensity
estimates. Lowell's low-level center remains near or just inside the
northern edge of the deepest convection, with the strongest and
most organized thunderstorm activity confined to the eastern and
southern portions of Lowell's circulation. The initial intensity of
45 kt is based on consensus Dvorak classifications of T3.0/45 kt
from TAFB and SAB, and a UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate of 43 kt. These
data are consistent with an overnight ASCAT-A pass of about 45 kt.

The initial motion estimate is now 285/08 kt. Lowell lies along the
southern periphery of a large, deep-layer subtropical ridge, and
this is the dominant synoptic-scale steering feature for the next 5
days. As a result, the cyclone is expected to move
west-northwestward today, followed by a turn toward the west on
Thursday, with that motion continuing through the weekend and into
early next week. The latest NHC model guidance is tightly packed
around the previous forecast track, thus requiring no significant
changes to the previous advisory track.

Low-to-moderate northwesterly to northerly vertical wind shear is
forecast to affect Lowell for the next 60 hours or so while the
cyclone hugs the 25- to 26-deg-C sea-surface temperature (SST)
gradient. As a result, little change in intensity is forecast during
that time. Thereafter, the combination of cooler SSTs and increasing
wind shear from the west is expected to induce slow but steady
weakening, with Lowell degenerating into a remnant low by 96 hours.
The latest NHC intensity forecast is essentially just an update of
the previous advisory, and closely follows a blend of the NOAA-HCCA,
FSSE and IVCN intensity consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 20.0N 120.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 20.4N 122.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 20.8N 123.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 21.0N 125.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 21.1N 127.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 26/0000Z 21.2N 130.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 21.1N 132.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 21.0N 137.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 28/1200Z 21.2N 141.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-09-23 15:11


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 231431
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lowell Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172020
500 AM HST Wed Sep 23 2020

...LOWELL MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 120.6W
ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lowell was
located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 120.6 West. Lowell is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through today. A westward
motion is expected to begin early Thursday and continue into the
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of
days, with slow weakening expected to begin by late Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

2020-09-23 15:11


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 231431
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172020
1500 UTC WED SEP 23 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 120.6W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 80SE 80SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 30SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 120.6W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 120.2W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 20.4N 122.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 20.8N 123.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 21.0N 125.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 21.1N 127.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 21.2N 130.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 21.1N 132.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 21.0N 137.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 21.2N 141.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 120.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



>

2020-09-23 15:08


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 231600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 17E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 17E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 19.9N 120.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9N 120.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 20.4N 122.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 20.8N 123.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 21.0N 125.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 21.1N 127.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 21.2N 130.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 21.1N 132.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 21.0N 137.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 21.2N 141.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
231600Z POSITION NEAR 20.1N 120.8W.
23SEP20. TROPICAL STORM 17E (LOWELL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 786
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 232200Z, 240400Z, 241000Z AND 241600Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-09-23 09:26


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 231000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 17E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 17E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 19.6N 119.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6N 119.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 20.3N 121.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 20.7N 123.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 21.0N 124.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 21.1N 126.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 21.2N 129.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 21.2N 131.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 21.0N 135.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 21.1N 140.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
231000Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 120.0W.
23SEP20. TROPICAL STORM 17E (LOWELL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 796
NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 231600Z, 232200Z, 240400Z AND 241000Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-09-23 08:43


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 230841
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172020
1100 PM HST Tue Sep 22 2020

Lowell's center is located near the northern edge of a band of deep
convection which extends over the eastern and southern portion of
the circulation due to moderate northwesterly shear in the
mid-levels below the cirrus layer. That part of the circulation
also happens to be where the tropical storm force winds are
predominantly situated, and a recent ASCAT pass showed that the
strongest winds have increased to near 45 kt. Lowell's circulation
will be straddling a tight sea surface temperature gradient during
the next few days, with the center moving over gradually cooler
waters and toward a drier air mass. As a result, little change in
strength is expected during the next couple of days, and some
weakening should begin by day 3 when water temperatures fall below
25 degrees Celsius and moderate westerly or southwesterly shear
sets in. The new NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of
the previous prediction and closely follows the HCCA, Florida State
Superensemble, and IVCN intensity consensus. Lowell is likely to
lose its deep convection and degenerate to a remnant low by day 4.

Lowell has been moving steadily toward the west-northwest, or
295/10 kt, steered by a mid-tropospheric high pressure area
centered just off the west coast of the Baja California peninsula.
The subtropical ridge is expected to become a little more
established to the north of Lowell, and that should cause the storm
to turn westward by 36 hours and continue at that heading through
the end of the forecast period. There continues to be very little
cross-track spread among the track guidance, and the most
noteworthy differences are the forward speeds depicted by the
models, bracketed by the speedy ECMWF and the more sluggish GFS and
COAMPS-TC models. The models overall have continued to trend
faster, and the new NHC track forecast is again pushed ahead of the
previous prediction, lying close to the TVCE consensus and the HCCA
aid.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 19.8N 119.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 20.3N 121.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 20.7N 123.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 21.0N 124.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 21.1N 126.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 25/1800Z 21.2N 129.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 26/0600Z 21.2N 131.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 27/0600Z 21.0N 135.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 28/0600Z 21.1N 140.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2020-09-23 08:42


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 230841
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lowell Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172020
1100 PM HST Tue Sep 22 2020

...LOWELL'S WINDS STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 119.9W
ABOUT 680 MI...1090 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lowell was
located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 119.9 West. Lowell is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue today. A westward motion is
expected to begin early Thursday and continue into the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the
next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

2020-09-23 08:42


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 230841
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172020
0900 UTC WED SEP 23 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 119.9W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 80SE 80SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 119.9W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 119.4W

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 20.3N 121.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 20.7N 123.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 21.0N 124.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 21.1N 126.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 21.2N 129.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 21.2N 131.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 21.0N 135.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 21.1N 140.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 119.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

2020-09-23 03:05


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 230400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 17E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 17E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 18.7N 117.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7N 117.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 19.7N 119.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 20.0N 121.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 20.4N 122.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 20.6N 124.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 20.7N 126.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 20.7N 128.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 20.7N 132.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 20.7N 136.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
222200Z POSITION NEAR 19.0N 118.1W.
22SEP20. TROPICAL STORM 17E (LOWELL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 840
NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 230400Z, 231000Z, 231600Z AND 232200Z.
//
NNNN

>

2020-09-23 02:46


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 230244
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172020
800 PM PDT Tue Sep 22 2020

Recent microwave satellite imagery has been extremely helpful in
diagnosing the structure of Lowell, as well as locating the center
of the tropical storm. The imagery indicates the the center is
located to the north of the bursting area of convection, and that
the overall structure has not changed much since this afternoon. A
blend of the latest subjective Dvorak T- and CI-numbers and the
earlier ASCAT data support an initial wind speed of 40 kt.
Although the shear associated with the upper-tropospheric flow is
low, there appears to be some stronger shear in a layer beneath that
level which is causing the displacement of the convection to the
south of the low-level center. Given the current structure, only
slight strengthening is predicted over the next 24 hours, and
shortly after that time Lowell will be moving near an SST gradient
and into an area of less favorable thermodynamic conditions. As a
result, little change in strength is shown between 24-60 h, but
gradual weakening should begin after that time when Lowell moves
over cooler waters and into an area of increasing southwesterly
shear. With Lowell moving along the SST gradient for the next
several days, a track north of the official forecast could result in
both a faster rate of weakening, and the system becoming
post-tropical much sooner than indicated below, but a track farther
south could result in slightly more intensification. The NHC
intensity forecast is a little above the SHIPS guidance and is in
best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model.

Lowell is moving west-northwestward at 10 kt. A west-northwestward
motion is expected, to the southwest of a subtropical ridge near
Baja California. The ridge is forecast to build to the north of
Lowell over the next couple of days which should impart a westward
turn by late Wednesday, with a general westward heading continuing
through the remainder of the forecast period. Although there is
little cross-track spread in the guidance models, there are
significant speed differences (along-track spread) with the ECMWF
model much faster than the GFS. The NHC track is slightly faster
than the previous forecast to be closer to the various consensus
aids and the GFS and UKMET ensemble means.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 19.4N 119.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 20.0N 120.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 20.4N 122.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 20.7N 124.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 20.9N 126.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 25/1200Z 21.0N 128.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 21.0N 130.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 27/0000Z 21.0N 134.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 28/0000Z 21.0N 138.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-09-23 02:45


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 230244
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lowell Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172020
800 PM PDT Tue Sep 22 2020

...LOWELL MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 119.1W
ABOUT 640 MI...1030 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lowell was
located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 119.1 West. Lowell is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. A
westward turn is expected Wednesday night, and this general motion
should continue into late week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

2020-09-23 02:45


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 230244
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172020
0300 UTC WED SEP 23 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 119.1W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 80SE 60SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 45SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 119.1W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 118.6W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 20.0N 120.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 20.4N 122.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 20.7N 124.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 20.9N 126.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 21.0N 128.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 21.0N 130.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 21.0N 134.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 21.0N 138.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 119.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>

2020-09-22 21:30


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 222200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 17E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 17E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 18.7N 117.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7N 117.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 19.7N 119.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 20.0N 121.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 20.4N 122.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 20.6N 124.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 20.7N 126.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 20.7N 128.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 20.7N 132.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 20.7N 136.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
222200Z POSITION NEAR 19.0N 118.1W.
22SEP20. TROPICAL STORM 17E (LOWELL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 840
NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 230400Z, 231000Z, 231600Z AND 232200Z.
//
NNNN

>

2020-09-22 20:37


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 222034
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172020
200 PM PDT Tue Sep 22 2020

Lowell has been undergoing a bursting pattern today, with the
original mass dissipating and a new one developing in its place.
This is typical of sheared tropical cyclones. Just in the past
couple of hours, visible satellite imagery has shown a low-level
swirl ejecting to the northwest from the deep convection. Based on
the center position from an ASCAT overpass around 1700 UTC, the
exposed swirl may indeed be the primary center of the cyclone. This
same ASCAT overpass showed peak winds of 37 kt, and based on the
evolution of the cyclone's structure in the past couple of hours,
the initial intensity is being lowered to 40 kt. The northeasterly
shear causing the developmental issues for Lowell may abate somewhat
in a day or so. This may provide the cyclone with an opportunity for
some strengthening before it reaches cooler waters in a couple of
days. After 72 h, Lowell is forecast to begin moving over waters of
24-25 degrees C, and enter an increasingly hostile environment with
strong westerly shear and mid-level relative humidity values around
30 percent by the end of the forecast period. These conditions
should cause the cyclone to weaken starting late this week. There is
a possibility that the cyclone could lose its deep convection late
in the forecast period, and although the latest advisory does not
indicate it, Lowell could degenerate into a remnant low by day 5.
The latest NHC intensity forecast is near the various intensity
consensus values.

The initial motion of the cyclone is 295/12 kt, but this is
uncertain due to the recent northwestern motion of the low-level
center. A general west-northwest motion is expected through
Wednesday as Lowell moves south of a subtropical ridge. A turn to
the west is expected Wednesday night as the ridge changes its
orientation slightly. The latest NHC track forecast is little
changed from the previous one and is near the tightly clustered
track guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 19.2N 117.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 19.7N 119.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 20.0N 121.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 20.4N 122.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 20.6N 124.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 25/0600Z 20.7N 126.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 20.7N 128.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 20.7N 132.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 27/1800Z 20.7N 136.2W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2020-09-22 20:36


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 222034
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lowell Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172020
200 PM PDT Tue Sep 22 2020

...POORLY ORGANIZED LOWELL MOVING AWAY FROM CLARION ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 117.9W
ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lowell was
located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 117.9 West. Lowell is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday, followed
by a turn toward the west.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected through Wednesday. Slow
strengthening is possible Wednesday night through Thursday night. A
weakening trend is expected to begin by late Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2020-09-22 20:35


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 222034
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172020
2100 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 117.9W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 80SE 60SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 117.9W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 117.4W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 19.7N 119.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 20.0N 121.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 20.4N 122.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 20.6N 124.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 20.7N 126.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 20.7N 128.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 20.7N 132.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 20.7N 136.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 117.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO



>

2020-09-22 15:10


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 221600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 17E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 17E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 18.2N 116.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2N 116.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 19.0N 118.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 19.6N 120.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 20.1N 121.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 20.4N 123.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 20.5N 125.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 20.6N 127.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 20.6N 131.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 20.6N 135.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
221600Z POSITION NEAR 18.5N 116.8W.
22SEP20. TROPICAL STORM 17E (LOWELL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 872
NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 222200Z, 230400Z, 231000Z AND 231600Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-09-22 14:46


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 221443
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172020
800 AM PDT Tue Sep 22 2020

Lowell's satellite appearance has improved slightly over the past
several hours, with the mass of deep convection becoming a little
more symmetrical. However, the center still appears to be near the
northeastern edge of this convection. A blend of the latest
satellite intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB suggest that
the cyclone has strengthened, and the initial intensity has been
increased to 45 kt. The north-northeasterly shear is expected to
persist for the next few days, and the cyclone is only expected to
remain over waters warmer than 26 degrees C for the 24-36 h.
Therefore, only some slow strengthening is expected during the
next day or so. At around 72 h, Lowell is expected to begin moving
over waters of around 25 degrees C while entering a drier and more
stable airmass. These conditions should cause the cyclone to weaken.
Late in the forecast period, model guidance suggests that Lowell
will encounter strong westerly wind shear. There is a possibility
that the cyclone could lose its deep convection once that shear sets
in, and although the latest advisory does not indicate it, Lowell
could degenerate into a remnant low by the end of the 5-day
forecast period. The latest NHC intensity forecast is near the
corrected consensus HCCA.

The storm is estimated to be moving 290/11 kt, on the southern side
of a subtropical ridge. This motion should continue through
Wednesday, followed by a turn to the west as the ridge changes its
orientation slightly. The latest NHC track forecast is near the
previous one through 24 h and is only a little north of it
thereafter due to a shift in the track guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 18.4N 116.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 19.0N 118.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 19.6N 120.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 20.1N 121.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 20.4N 123.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 25/0000Z 20.5N 125.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 20.6N 127.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 20.6N 131.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 27/1200Z 20.6N 135.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2020-09-22 14:45


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 221443
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lowell Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172020
800 AM PDT Tue Sep 22 2020

...LOWELL STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 116.6W
ABOUT 535 MI...855 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lowell was
located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 116.6 West. Lowell is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday, followed
by a turn toward the west.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is forecast during the next day or so. Little
change in strength is expected Wednesday night through Thursday
night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

2020-09-22 14:45


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 221443
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172020
1500 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 116.6W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 116.6W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 116.1W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 19.0N 118.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 19.6N 120.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 20.1N 121.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 20.4N 123.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 20.5N 125.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 20.6N 127.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 20.6N 131.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 20.6N 135.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 116.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO



>

2020-09-22 09:28


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 221000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 17E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 17E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 17.8N 115.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8N 115.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 18.6N 117.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 19.3N 119.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 19.8N 121.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 20.1N 122.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 20.2N 124.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 20.3N 125.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 20.2N 129.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 20.3N 133.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
221000Z POSITION NEAR 18.1N 115.7W.
22SEP20. TROPICAL STORM 17E (LOWELL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 901
NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 221600Z, 222200Z, 230400Z AND 231000Z.
//
NNNN

>

2020-09-22 09:01


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 220859
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172020
200 AM PDT Tue Sep 22 2020

Lowell continues to be affected by north-northeasterly shear, and
the center is estimated to be located near the north-northeastern
edge of the main convective mass. Banding features are not well
defined at this time. The intensity estimate remains near 40 kt in
agreement with recent scatterometer data. The storm should move
over marginally warm waters during the next several days, with some
decrease in shear. Therefore the official forecast shows gradual
strengthening. This is somewhat above the latest intensity model
consensus.

The cyclone is estimated to be moving at around 285/11 which is
close to the climatological mean. The track forecast appears to be
quite straightforward. Lowell should move on a west-northwestward
to westward path along the southern side of a subtropical ridge for
the next several days, and the NHC track prediction lies between
the model consensus and the previous official forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 18.0N 115.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 18.6N 117.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 19.3N 119.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 19.8N 121.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 20.1N 122.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 24/1800Z 20.2N 124.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 25/0600Z 20.3N 125.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 26/0600Z 20.2N 129.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 27/0600Z 20.3N 133.6W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-09-22 09:00


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 220858
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lowell Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172020
200 AM PDT Tue Sep 22 2020

...LOWELL MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 115.6W
ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lowell was
located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 115.6 West. Lowell is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so,
followed by a turn toward the west.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

2020-09-22 09:00


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 220858
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172020
0900 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 115.6W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 75SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 115.6W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 115.0W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 18.6N 117.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 19.3N 119.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 19.8N 121.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 20.1N 122.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 20.2N 124.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 20.3N 125.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 20.2N 129.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 20.3N 133.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 115.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



>

2020-09-22 03:22


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 220400
1. TROPICAL STORM 17E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 17.5N 113.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5N 113.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 18.4N 116.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 19.0N 118.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 19.5N 120.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 19.9N 121.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 20.0N 123.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 20.0N 125.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 20.0N 128.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 20.1N 131.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
220400Z POSITION NEAR 17.8N 114.7W.
22SEP20. TROPICAL STORM 17E (LOWELL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 928
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 221000Z, 221600Z, 222200Z AND 230400Z.
//
NNNN

>

2020-09-22 02:34


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 220231
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172020
900 PM MDT Mon Sep 21 2020

Lowell's satellite presentation has changed little during the past
several hours. Lowell remains a sheared tropical cyclone with a
few new bursts of deep convection evident to the west of the rather
poorly defined and exposed surface circulation center. The initial
intensity is held at 40 kt for this advisory and is in best
agreement with the various subjective and objective satellite
intensity estimates.

Modest northeasterly shear is still impinging over the eastern half
of the cyclone and this inhibiting factor should relax within the
next 12 hours or so. As a result, Lowell should strengthen with
time through the 48 to 60 hour period as the cyclone traverses warm
water and continues moving within a moist surrounding environment.
Through the remaining portion of the forecast, Lowell is expected to
enter a more stable and drier marine layer which should cause the
cyclone to gradual weaken. The NHC intensity forecast is close to
the NOAA HCCA consensus and the Decay SHIPS, and above the LGEM
which indicates very little change in strength during the next 5
days.

The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 280/11 kt.
Low- to mid tropospheric easterly flow produced by a subtropical
ridge anchored to the north of Lowell should steer it in a
generally west-northwestward motion through Wednesday night.
Around the 60 hour period, a turn back toward the west is expected
as the aforementioned ridge builds farther west. The official
forecast is basically an update of the previous advisory and is
close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 17.7N 114.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 18.4N 116.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 19.0N 118.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 19.5N 120.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 19.9N 121.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 24/1200Z 20.0N 123.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 20.0N 125.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 26/0000Z 20.0N 128.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 27/0000Z 20.1N 131.8W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2020-09-22 02:32


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 220231
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lowell Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172020
900 PM MDT Mon Sep 21 2020

...LOWELL HEADING DUE WEST OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 114.5W
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lowell was
located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 114.5 West. Lowell is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through Wednesday, followed by a turn toward
the west-northwest Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is anticipated during the next few days, and
Lowell could be near hurricane strength by Wednesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 85 miles (140 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


>

2020-09-22 02:32


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 220231
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172020
0300 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 114.5W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 75SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 114.5W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 113.9W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 18.4N 116.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 70SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 19.0N 118.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 19.5N 120.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 19.9N 121.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 20.0N 123.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 20.0N 125.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 20.0N 128.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 20.1N 131.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 114.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS



>

2020-09-21 21:51


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 212200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 17E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 005
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 17.3N 112.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3N 112.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 18.3N 115.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 19.2N 117.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 19.8N 119.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 20.2N 121.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 20.5N 122.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 20.5N 124.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 20.5N 128.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 20.5N 131.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
212200Z POSITION NEAR 17.6N 113.7W.
21SEP20. TROPICAL STORM 17E (LOWELL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 952
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 220400Z, 221000Z, 221600Z AND 222200Z.
//
NNNN

>

2020-09-21 20:54


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 212051
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172020
300 PM MDT Mon Sep 21 2020

Tropical Depression Seventeen-E has continued to have a ragged
appearance in satellite imagery during the day. The circulation is
elongated, with the main center just northeast of a poorly organized
convective mass and a secondary vorticity maximum well to the
north-northeast near Socorro Island. However, recent scatterometer
data showed an area of 35-40 kt winds to the south and southeast of
the main center. Based on this, the depression is upgraded to
Tropical Storm Lowell with an initial intensity of 40 kt.

The initial motion is now 290/14 kt. There are no significant
changes in the track forecast philosophy, the track forecast
guidance, or the track forecast since the last advisory. Lowell is
being steered by a large low- to mid-level ridge to the north and
northwest, and this ridge is forecast to persist through the
forecast period. The track guidance shows that the system should
continue west-northwestward for about 36 h, followed by a westward
motion through 120 h. The track guidance is still very tightly
clustered, and the new forecast track is near the various consensus
models.

Lowell is still experiencing some easterly shear, which the models
suggest should abate some in the next 12 h or so. However, the
poor organization of the storm suggests it may take a while to
respond to the more favorable environment. Thus, the new intensity
forecast continues the trend of the old forecast in showing slow
strengthening for the first 36-48 h. After that time, the intensity
will be strongly dependent on where the center is in relation to the
strong sea-surface temperature gradient. Since the forecast track
is basically unchanged, the new intensity forecast has only minor
tweaks from the previous forecast based on the forecast track
keeping the system over 25-26C water temperatures through 120 h.
However, any motion north of the forecast track would bring the
center over colder water and lead to a system weaker than forecast,
while any motion south of the track would keep it over warmer water
and possibly allow the cyclone to become a hurricane. The intensity
forecast remains low confidence.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 17.4N 113.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 18.3N 115.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 19.2N 117.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 19.8N 119.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 20.2N 121.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 24/0600Z 20.5N 122.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 20.5N 124.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 25/1800Z 20.5N 128.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 26/1800Z 20.5N 131.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-09-21 20:52


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 212051
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lowell Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172020
300 PM MDT Mon Sep 21 2020

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM LOWELL...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 113.6W
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lowell was
located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 113.6 West. Lowell is
moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue through Wednesday, followed by a
turn toward the west Wednesday night.

Recent satellite-derived surface wind data indicate that maximum
sustained winds are now near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is anticipated during the next few days, and
Lowell could be near hurricane strength by Wednesday or Wednesday
night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 85 miles (140 km)
mainly to the south and southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

2020-09-21 20:52


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 212050
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172020
2100 UTC MON SEP 21 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 113.6W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 75SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 75SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 113.6W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 112.9W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 18.3N 115.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 70SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 19.2N 117.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 19.8N 119.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 20.2N 121.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 20.5N 122.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 20.5N 124.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 20.5N 128.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 20.5N 131.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 113.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2020-09-21 14:44


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 211442
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Seventeen-E Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172020
900 AM MDT Mon Sep 21 2020

Although the circulation still appears to be elongated, the
depression has become a little better organized during the past
several hours, with the low-level center closer to the large mass
of convection in the southwestern semicircle. Satellite intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB are 30 kt, so the initial intensity is
nudged upward to 30 kt.

The initial motion is now 290/12. The depression is being steered
by a large low- to mid-level ridge to the north and northwest, and
this ridge is forecast to persist through the forecast period. The
track guidance shows that the system should continue west-
northwestward for about 36 h, followed by a westward motion through
120 h. The track guidance is very tightly clustered, and the new
forecast track is near the various consensus models.

Current indications are that the current easterly shear should
subside a little during the next 24-36 h, and this should allow the
system to become a tropical storm. As noted in the previous
advisory, the intensity after 36 h will be strongly dependent on
where the center is in relation to the strong sea surface
temperature gradient. The new intensity forecast is similar to the
previous forecast based on the forecast track keeping the
system over 25-26C water temperatures through 120 h. However, any
motion north of the forecast track would bring the center over
colder water and lead to a system weaker than forecast, while any
motion south of the track would keep it over warmer water and
possibly allow the cyclone to become a hurricane. As might have
guessed, this is a low confidence intensity forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 17.0N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 17.8N 113.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 18.8N 115.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 19.5N 118.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 20.0N 119.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 24/0000Z 20.3N 121.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 20.5N 123.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 25/1200Z 20.5N 126.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 26/1200Z 20.5N 130.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-09-21 14:43


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 211441
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Seventeen-E Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172020
900 AM MDT Mon Sep 21 2020

...DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE OPEN EASTERN
PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 112.0W
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Seventeen-E was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 112.0
West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph
(22 km/h), and this general motion motion is expected to continue
through Tuesday night. A turn toward the west is expected on
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is anticipated during the next few days, and the
depression could become a tropical storm tonight or Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-09-21 14:43


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 211441
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172020
1500 UTC MON SEP 21 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 112.0W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 112.0W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 111.4W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.8N 113.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 18.8N 115.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 19.5N 118.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 20.0N 119.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 20.3N 121.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 20.5N 123.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 20.5N 126.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 20.5N 130.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 112.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2020-09-21 08:34


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 210832
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Seventeen-E Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172020
300 AM MDT Mon Sep 21 2020

The depression has really gone downhill overnight. While a small
well-defined center probably still exists, a pair of ASCAT passes
between 4 and 5 UTC showed that the surface circulation of the
depression is generally elongated, with a large area of light and
variable winds where you would expect north and northwest winds.
Deep convection is displaced well to the west of the estimated
center position due to persistent easterly shear. The highest winds
in either ASCAT pass were just below 25 kt, so that remains the
intensity for this advisory.

The depression has apparently accelerated west-northwestward, with
an extremely uncertain motion estimate of 285/11 kt. A turn toward
the west is anticipated by Wednesday and extensive ridging to the
north will likely keep the cyclone heading generally westward
thereafter through the end of the forecast period. This track will
take the cyclone parallel to an SST gradient that will have
implications on the intensity forecast.

The poor organization of the depression suggests that any
strengthening will be slow to occur during the next day or two.
Moderate easterly shear will likely continue for at least another
couple days, but the cyclone could find itself in a quite favorable
upper-air environment in a few days. If it is located on the warm
side of the SST gradient, some strengthening is likely, though
surrounding dry air will likely be a limiting factor for rapid any
intensification. One model with a southern track, the HWRF, even
suggests it could become a hurricane later this week. If the system
moves a little farther north that currently forecast, little
strengthening will be likely and it could even become a remnant low
at some point during the next 5 days. The NHC intensity forecast is
similar to the previous one, but shows a slightly slower rate of
strengthening for the first three days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 16.6N 110.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 17.4N 112.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 18.5N 114.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 19.3N 116.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 19.9N 118.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 23/1800Z 20.2N 120.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 20.4N 122.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 25/0600Z 20.5N 125.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 26/0600Z 20.5N 129.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2020-09-21 08:32


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 210831
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Seventeen-E Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172020
300 AM MDT Mon Sep 21 2020

...STRUNG OUT DEPRESSION NO STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 110.8W
ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Seventeen-E was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 110.8
West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph
(20 km/h). A west-northwestward motion with a slight increase in
forward speed is expected today and early Tuesday, followed by a
turn toward the west Tuesday night or early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is anticipated during the next few days. The
system is forecast to become a tropical storm by Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2020-09-21 08:32


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 210831
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172020
0900 UTC MON SEP 21 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 110.8W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 110.8W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 110.2W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 17.4N 112.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 18.5N 114.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 19.3N 116.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 19.9N 118.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 20.2N 120.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 20.4N 122.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 20.5N 125.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 20.5N 129.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 110.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY



>

2020-09-21 03:01


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 210259
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Seventeen-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172020
900 PM MDT Sun Sep 20 2020

Last few visible images showed that the depression's surface
circulation remains poorly organized with a small swirl of clouds
displaced just to the north of the deep convective mass. The
initial intensity is held at 25 kt based on the unchanged
subjective intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.

The statistical-dynamical intensity guidance and the skilled
consensus models all point to steady intensification through day 3.
Toward the end of the period, the tropical cyclone should encounter
an inhibiting dry stable air mass and cooler oceanic surface
temperatures, which should lead to a gradual weakening trend. The
NHC intensity forecast shows a peak intensity just under hurricane
strength on Wednesday and is just below the HCCA intensity
consensus and close to the Decay SHIPS.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward at 6 kt,
and this motion is predicted to continue through Wednesday. The
subtropical ridge currently steering the cyclone is forecast to
build farther westward over the tropical eastern Pacific which
should induce a westward turn toward the end of the week. The NHC
forecast is basically an update of the previous one and based on
the various consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 16.1N 109.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 16.7N 110.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 17.9N 112.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 18.9N 115.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 19.6N 117.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 23/1200Z 20.0N 119.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 20.3N 120.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 25/0000Z 20.4N 123.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 26/0000Z 20.7N 126.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2020-09-21 02:56


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 210254
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Seventeen-E Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172020
900 PM MDT Sun Sep 20 2020

...DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
SOON...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 109.3W
ABOUT 470 MI...760 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Seventeen-E was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 109.3
West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph
(11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during
the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast and the system is expected to
become a tropical storm by Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


>

2020-09-21 02:56


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 210254
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172020
0300 UTC MON SEP 21 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 109.3W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 109.3W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 108.8W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 16.7N 110.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.9N 112.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 18.9N 115.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 19.6N 117.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 20.0N 119.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 20.3N 120.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 20.4N 123.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 20.7N 126.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 109.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS



>

2020-09-20 20:56


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 202053
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Seventeen-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172020
300 PM MDT Sun Sep 20 2020

The area of disturbed weather several hundred miles south of the
southern tip of Baja California has developed enough organized deep
convection and a well-enough defined center to declare it a tropical
cyclone. This is supported by subjective Dvorak classifications
from both SAB and TAFB with an initial intensity of 25 kt. The
initial motion is an uncertain 275 degrees at 9 kt.

As the system should be moving over warm 29C SSTs, encountering
moist mid-level humidities, and experiencing low to moderate amounts
of tropospheric vertical shear, steady intensification is expected
through the next three days. Around days four and five, the tropical
cyclone should encounter both drier air and cooler SSTs, likely
curtailing any further development and leading toward slow
weakening. The intensity forecast is between the bullish dynamical
models calling for a peak at a Category 1 hurricane in about three
days, and the bearish statistical guidance suggesting a moderate to
high-end tropical storm at the system's peak.

The track models are in much better agreement with all suggesting a
turn toward the west-northwest at a slightly faster forward speed
for the next three days, under the steering influence of a narrow
deep-layer ridge north of the system. By day four, an amplifying
ridge north of the tropical cyclone should turn it back toward the
west again. The track forecast is based upon the HCCA corrected
consensus technique.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 15.8N 109.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 16.2N 110.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 17.3N 112.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 18.5N 114.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 19.3N 117.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 23/0600Z 19.7N 119.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 23/1800Z 20.1N 120.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 24/1800Z 20.5N 124.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 25/1800Z 20.5N 127.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Landsea

>

2020-09-20 20:52


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 202050
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Seventeen-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172020
300 PM MDT Sun Sep 20 2020

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS A SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 109.1W
ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Seventeen-E was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 109.1
West. The depression is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17
km/h). The system is expected to turn toward the west-northwest at
a slightly faster forward speed during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast and the system is expected to
become a tropical storm in the next day or two.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Landsea


>

2020-09-20 20:51


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 202049
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172020
2100 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 109.1W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 109.1W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 108.6W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 16.2N 110.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 17.3N 112.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 18.5N 114.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 19.3N 117.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 19.7N 119.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 20.1N 120.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 20.5N 124.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 20.5N 127.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 109.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA



>