Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for JULIO-20
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

2020-09-07 08:41


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 070839
TCDEP5

Remnants Of Julio Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152020
300 AM MDT Mon Sep 07 2020

Moderate easterly shear has continued to take a toll on the compact
tropical cyclone. In fact, recent satellite imagery and ASCAT data
indicate that the small circulation has opened up into a trough of
low pressure. Therefore, Julio has dissipated and this will be the
final NHC advisory on this system. Julio?--s demise occurred much
quicker than forecast, owing to the difficulty in predicting the
intensity (both up and down) of small tropical cyclones. The
remnants are moving westward around the northern portion of a broad
area of low pressure to the southwest of Socorro Island, and the
remnants should be absorbed within that system later today. The
global models indicate that moderate to strong easterly shear will
persist over the larger low pressure area in which Julio is being
absorbed, and this will likely prevent significant development of
that system over the next few days.

This is last NHC advisory on this system. For additional information
on the remnants of Julio please see High Seas Forecasts issued
by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO
header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 19.5N 112.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

2020-09-07 08:40


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 070838
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Julio Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152020
300 AM MDT Mon Sep 07 2020

...JULIO DEGENERATES INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 112.6W
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
Recent satellite wind data show that Julio has degenerated into a
trough of low pressure.

At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the remnants of Julio were located near
latitude 19.5 North, longitude 112.6 West. The remnants are moving
toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and a westward or
west-southwestward motion is expected today.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast and the
remnants are expected to be absorbed by a broad area of low
pressure located to the south the system.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. For additional information on the remnants
of Julio please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

2020-09-07 08:39


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 070838
TCMEP5

REMNANTS OF JULIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152020
0900 UTC MON SEP 07 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 112.6W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 112.6W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 112.1W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 112.6W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>

2020-09-07 02:42


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 070241
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Julio Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152020
900 PM MDT Sun Sep 06 2020

Julio is losing organization. A small area of deep convection
remains near the assumed center, which is best identified by SSMIS
microwave data a few hours ago. However, Socorro Island, located
about 30 miles south of the center, never showed any westerly winds.
While it is possible the system has already opened up into a
trough, advisories are being continued on the assumption that the
island missed the small system's circulation. The initial wind
speed is set to 30 kt due to the decay in overall satellite
presentation.

The depression is moving westward at a slower speed than before,
roughly 11 kt. This motion is expected tomorrow at a slower
speed as a ridge breaks down to the north of the cyclone.
Afterwards, since the tropical cyclone is so small, a larger
surface low to the southwest of the system seems likely to weaken
Julio and then absorb the tropical cyclone in a couple of days.
Thus the track forecast is adjusted south of the previous one, and
the new intensity forecast is reduced as well. A plausible
alternative scenario is that overnight scatterometer data will show
that the system has already degenerated into a surface trough.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 19.4N 111.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 19.5N 113.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 19.5N 114.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 19.3N 115.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

2020-09-07 02:42


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 070241
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Julio Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152020
900 PM MDT Sun Sep 06 2020

...JULIO DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 111.3W
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Julio
was located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 111.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and
this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected
for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Further slow weakening is anticipated, and Julio
is forecast to dissipate on Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

2020-09-07 02:42


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 070240
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152020
0300 UTC MON SEP 07 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 111.3W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 111.3W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 110.7W

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.5N 113.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 19.5N 114.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 19.3N 115.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 111.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



>

2020-09-06 20:36


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 062034
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Julio Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152020
300 PM MDT Sun Sep 06 2020

Julio remains a compact tropical storm that is producing a small
area of deep convection near and to the west of the center. A
recent ASCAT-A overpass showed maximum winds around 30 kt, which was
lower than in previous passes. Based on that data and the latest
Dvorak classifications, the initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt.
The ASCAT data also suggest that the circulation of Julio is not as
well defined on the south side as it was earlier.

As mentioned in the previous discussion, Julio's future is
somewhat unclear. The ECMWF and UKMET models show Julio becoming
absorbed by a larger low just to its southwest in a couple of days.
Conversely, the GFS, HWRF, and HMON models show Julio being the
dominant feature, with the latter two aids even showing
strengthening. Since confidence is low on which scenario will play
out, it seems best to hold continuity for now, which ends up leaning
closer to the ECMWF/UKMET solutions. The NHC intensity forecast is
a little lower than the previous one given the lower initial
intensity.

The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at about 17 kt.
Julio should continue to move westward to west-northwestward at a
fairly quick pace for another 12-24 hours. However, after that time,
a notable slow down should occur as the ridge over the eastern
Pacific breaks down and leaves the cyclone in weak steering
currents. The new NHC track forecast is adjusted to the south of
the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest
models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 19.3N 110.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 19.6N 112.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 19.7N 114.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 19.6N 115.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 19.4N 116.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 09/0600Z 19.2N 116.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

2020-09-06 20:34


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 062032
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Julio Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152020
300 PM MDT Sun Sep 06 2020

...COMPACT JULIO MOVING AWAY FROM MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 110.0W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julio was
located near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 110.0 West. Julio is
moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h). A fairly
quick westward to west-northwestward motion is expected through
early Monday. A much slower westward motion is forecast after that.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected during the next couple of
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

2020-09-06 20:33


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 062032
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM JULIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152020
2100 UTC SUN SEP 06 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 110.0W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 110.0W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 109.3W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.6N 112.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 19.7N 114.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 19.6N 115.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 19.4N 116.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 19.2N 116.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 110.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

2020-09-06 15:59


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 061558

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 06.09.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93L ANALYSED POSITION : 14.8N 17.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL932020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.09.2020 0 14.8N 17.2W 1007 20
0000UTC 07.09.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L ANALYSED POSITION : 17.1N 40.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.09.2020 0 17.1N 40.5W 1008 28
0000UTC 07.09.2020 12 16.9N 41.3W 1006 27
1200UTC 07.09.2020 24 16.5N 42.2W 1004 27
0000UTC 08.09.2020 36 17.1N 42.5W 1002 31
1200UTC 08.09.2020 48 17.2N 43.1W 1000 35
0000UTC 09.09.2020 60 17.6N 44.1W 1000 37
1200UTC 09.09.2020 72 18.3N 45.5W 1001 38
0000UTC 10.09.2020 84 18.6N 46.9W 1002 41
1200UTC 10.09.2020 96 19.1N 47.6W 1002 37
0000UTC 11.09.2020 108 19.2N 48.0W 1001 38
1200UTC 11.09.2020 120 20.1N 47.8W 1000 37
0000UTC 12.09.2020 132 20.8N 47.6W 1000 32
1200UTC 12.09.2020 144 23.2N 47.1W 1002 30

TROPICAL STORM JULIO ANALYSED POSITION : 19.0N 107.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.09.2020 0 19.0N 107.3W 1009 23
0000UTC 07.09.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 16.6N 25.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.09.2020 48 16.6N 25.6W 1005 25
0000UTC 09.09.2020 60 18.0N 28.9W 1006 26
1200UTC 09.09.2020 72 18.6N 30.4W 1007 25
0000UTC 10.09.2020 84 20.5N 33.3W 1009 27
1200UTC 10.09.2020 96 20.8N 35.3W 1009 27
0000UTC 11.09.2020 108 23.3N 37.0W 1007 31
1200UTC 11.09.2020 120 25.6N 37.7W 1005 35
0000UTC 12.09.2020 132 27.5N 38.0W 1006 38
1200UTC 12.09.2020 144 30.2N 39.6W 1007 38

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 11.2N 16.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.09.2020 96 11.1N 17.9W 1002 34
0000UTC 11.09.2020 108 11.3N 20.6W 995 49
1200UTC 11.09.2020 120 11.9N 23.4W 991 46
0000UTC 12.09.2020 132 12.9N 26.5W 987 50
1200UTC 12.09.2020 144 13.9N 30.3W 980 57


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 061558

>

2020-09-06 15:23


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 061600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 15E (JULIO) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15E (JULIO) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 18.7N 107.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7N 107.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 19.9N 111.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 20.3N 113.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 20.4N 115.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 20.2N 115.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 20.2N 116.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
061600Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 108.9W.
06SEP20. TROPICAL STORM 15E (JULIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 978 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 062200Z, 070400Z, 071000Z AND 071600Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-09-06 14:36


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 061434
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Julio Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152020
900 AM MDT Sun Sep 06 2020

Julio has surprisingly accelerated west-northwestward during the
past few hours, moving around the northeast periphery of a broad
trough of low pressure. The tiny tropical storm continues to
produce small but frequent bursts of central convection and has not
changed appreciably since the most recent ASCAT pass that supported
an intensity of 40 kt.

Julio's future is unusually unclear for a system that is forecast to
dissipate. The global models are struggling to resolve Julio, and
only the ECMWF has a realistic current depiction of the cyclone.
Those models universally indicate that Julio will either dissipate
or be absorbed by the aforementioned broad area of low pressure
located to its southwest within the next 24 to 36 hours. This is
certainly plausible given Julio's small size and limited convection.
On the other hand, the HWRF and HMON models now indicate that Julio
will not only persist through day 5, but potentially strengthen when
upper-level winds are forecast to become less hostile in a couple
days. The disagreement can not be explained entirely by model
resolution as the COAMPS-TC also weakens Julio.

I see no clear reason to support one solution over another at this
point. Therefore, the official forecast continues to show
dissipation for now, though the intensity has been hedged slightly
higher at 48 h and 60 h. The NHC track forecast leans heavily on the
HWRF and HMON models and has been adjusted significantly faster for
the first 24 h due to Julio's recent acceleration. Much larger
changes may be required to the forecast later today or tonight if it
becomes more likely that Julio will persist longer than currently
indicated.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 19.2N 108.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 19.9N 111.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 20.3N 113.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 20.4N 115.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 20.2N 115.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 09/0000Z 20.2N 116.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2020-09-06 14:33


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 061431
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Julio Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152020
900 AM MDT Sun Sep 06 2020

...JULIO ACCELERATES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST
COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 108.8W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julio was
located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 108.8 West. Julio is
moving toward the west-northwest near 23 mph (37 km/h). A fast
west-northwestward motion is expected today, followed by a turn
toward the west at a slower forward speed on Monday and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Only small fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next
couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


>

2020-09-06 14:32


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 061431
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM JULIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152020
1500 UTC SUN SEP 06 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 108.8W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 108.8W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 107.8W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.9N 111.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 20.3N 113.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.4N 115.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 20.2N 115.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 20.2N 116.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 108.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY



>

2020-09-06 09:02


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 061000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 15E (JULIO) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15E (JULIO) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 17.2N 105.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 105.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 18.6N 108.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 19.5N 110.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 19.9N 112.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 20.1N 113.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 20.2N 114.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
061000Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 106.3W.
06SEP20. TROPICAL STORM 15E (JULIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1128
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 061600Z, 062200Z, 070400Z AND 071000Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-09-06 08:34


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 060833
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Julio Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152020
300 AM MDT Sun Sep 06 2020

Julio is a compact and well-defined tropical storm as indicated by
recent satellite-derived wind data and microwave imagery, with the
center located underneath the eastern portion of the deep
convection. A recent ASCAT overpass showed maximum winds of 39 kt,
and based on this data the initial intensity has been increased to
40 kt.

Julio has accelerated and is now moving west-northwestward at 18 kt
around the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. This motion
should continue for the next day or so, with a gradual decrease in
forward speed. A turn to west is anticipated by Monday as the
cyclone begins to weaken and becomes steered by the low-level flow.
The latest forecast is similar to the previous one through 24 h, but
was shifted southward thereafter in response to a southerly shift in
the guidance.

The intensity forecast for Julio is low confidence, as the global
models have struggled to resolve the small size of the cyclone,
resulting in a large spread in the intensity guidance. The SHIPS
guidance suggests that the moderate easterly shear currently
impacting Julio will decrease in 12-24 h, while the system is still
over warm waters and in a moist atmospheric environment. Therefore,
this guidance indicates that some slight strengthening is expected
over the next couple of days. Despite the generally favorable
conditions shown in the SHIPS guidance, the global models show no
further intensification and weaken the cyclone almost immediately.
Due to the resilience of Julio up until this point, the latest NHC
intensity forecast leans towards the higher SHIPS guidance over the
next day or so, then trends toward the lower global model forecasts
later on in the forecast period. All of the global models suggest
Julio will dissipate in a few days, and this is still being
indicated in the NHC forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 17.6N 106.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 18.6N 108.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 19.5N 110.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 19.9N 112.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 20.1N 113.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 08/1800Z 20.2N 114.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

2020-09-06 08:33


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 060832
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Julio Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152020
300 AM MDT Sun Sep 06 2020

...JULIO STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 106.0W
ABOUT 150 MI...235 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julio was
located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 106.0 West. Julio is
moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so with
some decrease in forward speed. A turn to the west is forecast to
occur in a couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible through tonight. Weakening
should begin by Monday and Julio is forecast to dissipate within 72
hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

2020-09-06 08:33


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 060831
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM JULIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152020
0900 UTC SUN SEP 06 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 106.0W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 106.0W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 105.3W

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.6N 108.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.5N 110.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 19.9N 112.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.1N 113.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 20.2N 114.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 106.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO



>

2020-09-06 03:44


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 060400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 15E (JULIO) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15E (JULIO) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 16.3N 103.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3N 103.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 17.5N 106.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 18.5N 108.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 19.4N 110.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 20.3N 110.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 21.1N 111.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
060400Z POSITION NEAR 16.7N 104.5W.
06SEP20. TROPICAL STORM 15E (JULIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1230
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 061000Z, 061600Z, 062200Z AND 070400Z.
//
NNNN

>

2020-09-06 02:53


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 060251
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Julio Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152020
1000 PM CDT Sat Sep 05 2020

Satellite imagery, including recently received microwave
overpasses, shows that Julio has changed little in organization
during the past several hours, with the small low-level circulation
center is located near the eastern edge of the small area of
central convection. The initial intensity remains 35 kt based on
continuity and a satellite intensity estimated from TAFB.

The initial motion is west-northwestward or 295/15 kt. The latest
global models runs continue to have trouble resolving Julio, but
overall the cyclone is embedded in an east-southeasterly flow on
the southwest side of a mid-level ridge. A general west-
northwestward motion should continue with a decrease in forward
speed until the system dissipates. The new forecast track again
leans more toward the ECMWF model, which does the best job of
resolving Julio.

The tropical storm will be affected by moderate to strong easterly
wind shear for the next day or two, and only sight strengthening is
likely during that time. While the shear is forecast to diminish
after 24-36 h, the cyclone will encounter a drier and more stable
air mass at that time, which should lead to the dissipation of the
small system. The new intensity forecast is unchanged from the
previous forecast, and it lies below the intensity consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 16.6N 104.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 17.5N 106.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 18.5N 108.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 19.4N 110.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 20.3N 110.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 08/1200Z 21.1N 111.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

2020-09-06 02:52


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 060250
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Julio Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152020
1000 PM CDT Sat Sep 05 2020

...JULIO MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 104.2W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julio was
located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 104.2 West. Julio is
moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days
with some decrease in forward speed,

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or two.
Weakening should begin by early next week and Julio is forecast to
dissipate within 72 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-09-06 02:52


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 060250
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM JULIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152020
0300 UTC SUN SEP 06 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 104.2W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 104.2W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 103.5W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.5N 106.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.5N 108.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.4N 110.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.3N 110.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.1N 111.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 104.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2020-09-05 22:02


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 052200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15E (JULIO) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 15.8N 101.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 101.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 16.9N 105.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 18.0N 107.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 19.0N 109.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 19.9N 110.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 20.5N 111.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
052200Z POSITION NEAR 16.2N 102.9W.
05SEP20. TROPICAL STORM 15E (JULIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1308
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 060400Z, 061000Z, 061600Z AND 062200Z.
//
NNNN

>

2020-09-05 20:35


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 052034
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Julio Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152020
400 PM CDT Sat Sep 05 2020

The mid-level remnants of Atlantic Hurricane Nana have moved
westward and west-northwestward off the southwestern coast of Mexico
while producing intermittent convection during the last few days. A
well-defined low formed about a day ago and ASCAT data indicates
that it has been producing tropical-storm-force winds for the past
12 h or so. During the past few hours there has also been an
increase in deep convection near the center of the low, and the most
recent Dvorak classification from TAFB was T-2.5, indicating that
the system is sufficiently well-organized to be considered a
tropical cyclone. Since the low-level center of Nana dissipated
inland over Central Atlantic, the new tropical storm is named Julio,
the tenth of the northern East Pacific season. The TAFB Dvorak
classification and 15Z ASCAT data are the basis for the 35 kt
initial intensity. Since the ASCAT explicitly showed 35 kt winds and
that instrument typically under-samples the maximum winds, it is
possible this intensity is a little conservative.

Most of the dynamical models do not acknowledge the existence of
tiny Julio in their initial conditions. Only the ECMWF and its
ensemble show a small well-defined low and it therefore is the
primary basis for the NHC track forecast. In general, Julio should
continue west-northwestward at a slower forward speed for the next
couple of days, steered by a mid-level ridge to the northeast. Julio
is forecast to become a shallow remnant low in a few days and should
slow down to a crawl before it dissipates early next week. Since the
forecast is based largely on one modeling system rather than the
typical NHC consensus approach, confidence in the track forecast is
fairly low.

The tropical storm will be affected by strong easterly wind shear
for the next day or two and little or no further strengthening is
likely during that time. Although the shear could decrease by early
next week, Julio will reach a drier and more stable environment in a
couple of days. It is therefore forecast to become a remnant low
within 60 h and dissipate shortly thereafter. The NHC forecast is
based on a blend of the ECMWF and the statistical DSHP and LGEM
models since the HWRF and the GFS-dependent HMON models do not
appear to have a good handle on the initial state of the system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 16.1N 102.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 16.9N 105.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 18.0N 107.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 19.0N 109.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 19.9N 110.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 08/0600Z 20.5N 111.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


>

2020-09-05 20:34


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 052032
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Julio Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152020
400 PM CDT Sat Sep 05 2020

...TROPICAL STORM JULIO FORMS JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 102.7W
ABOUT 130 MI...215 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julio was
located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 102.7 West. Julio is
moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). The tropical
storm is forecast to move in this general direction at a slower
forward speed for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or two.
Weakening should begin by early next week and Julio is forecast to
dissipate within 72 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


>

2020-09-05 20:32


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 052031
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM JULIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152020
2100 UTC SAT SEP 05 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 102.7W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 102.7W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 101.9W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.9N 105.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.0N 107.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.0N 109.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 19.9N 110.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.5N 111.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 102.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY



>