Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for GONZALO-20
in Venezuela, Trinidad and Tobago, Grenada, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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2020-07-25 20:40


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 252037
TCDAT2

Remnants Of Gonzalo Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
500 PM AST Sat Jul 25 2020

Gonzalo's structure has degraded further since the last advisory.
Late-arriving ASCAT data showed a well-defined tropical wave with
winds around 30 kt, but no clear evidence of a closed circulation.
Grenada reported max winds of 28 kt with a gust to 40 kt, in line
with the ASCAT observations, while multiple observing stations in
Trinidad did not report any westerly winds as the system passed.
There has been no evidence of a well-defined center in visible
imagery since that time. Given the additional degradation of
Gonzalo's appearance since it moved closest to those islands, it
appears that the system has opened into wave and dissipated.
Therefore, this will be the last advisory issued by the National
Hurricane Center.

Tropical squalls associated with the remnants of Gonzalo will
continue to move westward for the next day or so and could bring
gusty winds and heavy rain to portions of the southeastern
Caribbean. Please consult products from your national meteorological
service for information specific to your area.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 11.0N 63.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2020-07-25 20:39


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 252036
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Gonzalo Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
500 PM AST Sat Jul 25 2020

...REMNANTS OF GONZALO MOVING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.0N 63.0W
ABOUT 125 MI...195 KM WNW OF TRINIDAD
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the remnants of Gonzalo were located near
latitude 11.0 North, longitude 63.0 West. The remnants of Gonzalo
are forecast to move generally westward across the southern
Caribbean for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gusty conditions associated with squalls will be possible as the
remnants of Gonzalo move westward.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Gusty conditions associated with squalls will be possible
across portions of the southern Caribbean as the remnants of
Gonzalo move westward during the next couple of days.

RAINFALL: The remnants of Gonzalo are expected to produce
additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, and isolated storm
total amounts of 4 inches over far northeastern Venezuela through
this evening. The system is also expected to produce 1 to 2 inches
of rain over the Leeward Antilles and the remainder of far northern
Venezuela. This includes Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2020-07-25 20:39


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 252036
TCMAT2

REMNANTS OF GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020
2100 UTC SAT JUL 25 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 63.0W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 63.0W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 62.1W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.0N 63.0W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2020-07-25 17:52


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 251749
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Gonzalo Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
200 PM AST Sat Jul 25 2020

...SQUALLS OF GONZALO SPREADING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.8N 61.9W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NW OF TRINIDAD
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

The government of Trinidad and Tobago has canceled the Tropical
Storm Warning for Tobago and Grenada.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

None.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Gonzalo
was estimated to be near latitude 10.8 North, longitude 61.9 West.
Gonzalo is moving toward the west near 20 mph (32 km/h). A general
westward to west-northwestward motion is expected today and tonight.
On the forecast track, Gonzalo or its remnants will move across the
southeastern Caribbean Sea today and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. The system is forecast to dissipate by Sunday
night, if not sooner.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web a www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Gusty conditions associated with squalls will be possible
across the southern Windward Islands for the rest of the afternoon.
These squalls will spread westward across the southeastern Caribbean
Sea through Sunday.

RAINFALL: Gonzalo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
2 to 4 inches over Trinidad and Tobago and far northeastern
Venezuela. Gonzalo is also expected to produce 1 to 3 inches over
the southern Windward Islands, the Leeward Antilles, and the
remainder of far northern Venezuela. This includes Saint Vincent and
the Grenadines, Grenada, Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao. Isolated
maximum amounts of 6 inches are possible in the mountainous terrain
of Trinidad and Tobago and far northeastern Venezuela, which may
lead to flash flooding.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2020-07-25 14:34


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 251432
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
1100 AM AST Sat Jul 25 2020

Gonzalo is looking very ragged, with a cloud field that more
resembles a tropical squall than a tropical storm. If Gonzalo still
has a well-defined center, it is located to the east of the primary
area of deep convection and is obscured by cirrus clouds. It is
possible that ASCAT data will provide more information on the status
of Gonzalo later this morning. For now, the intensity is held at
35 kt based on overnight reconnaissance data, but it is possible
that Gonzalo is no longer producing winds of that magnitude except
in squalls not directly related to the system's circulation.

Gonzalo appears to have continued westward since the last advisory,
with a somewhat uncertain forward speed estimate of 16 kt. As noted
in the previous advisory, Gonzalo is not expected to gain much
latitude today and should continue generally westward for the next
day or so. Close proximity to land and unfavorable large-scale
environmental factors should cause Gonzalo to weaken and open into a
trough by late Sunday, if not sooner. No significant changes were
made to the NHC track or intensity forecasts which both remain near
the multi-model consensus.

Key Messages

1. Gonzalo is causing gusty winds across portions of the southern
Windward Islands. Interests in the southern Windward Islands should
monitor the progress of Gonzalo and follow any advice given by local
officials.

2. Gonzalo is producing heavy rain over portions of the
southern Windward Islands. This could lead to life-threatening
flash flooding.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 10.5N 60.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 11.0N 63.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 11.7N 67.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2020-07-25 14:34


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 251432
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gonzalo Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
1100 AM AST Sat Jul 25 2020

...GONZALO PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.5N 60.5W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM E OF TRINIDAD
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Tobago
* Grenada and its dependencies

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case
within the next 12 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was
located near latitude 10.5 North, longitude 60.5 West. Gonzalo is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A general westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected today and tonight.
On the forecast track, Gonzalo will move across the southern
Windward Islands this afternoon or evening and over the southeastern
Caribbean Sea on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast before Gonzalo reaches
the southern Windward Islands later today. Weakening is expected
after Gonzalo moves over the southeastern Caribbean Sea, and the
system is forecast to dissipate by Sunday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web a www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of
the Tropical Storm Warning area today.

RAINFALL: Gonzalo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
2 to 4 inches over Trinidad and Tobago and far northeastern
Venezuela. Gonzalo is also expected to produce 1 to 3 inches over
the southern Windward Islands, the Leeward Antilles, and the
remainder of far northern Venezuela. This includes Saint Vincent and
the Grenadines, Grenada, Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao. Isolated
maximum amounts of 6 inches are possible in the mountainous terrain
of Trinidad and Tobago and far northeastern Venezuela, which may
lead to flash flooding.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2020-07-25 14:34


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 251431
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020
1500 UTC SAT JUL 25 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TOBAGO
* GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 60.5W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 60.5W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 59.8W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 11.0N 63.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 11.7N 67.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.5N 60.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 25/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2020-07-25 11:34


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 251132
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gonzalo Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
800 AM AST Sat Jul 25 2020

...HEAVY RAIN FROM GONZALO NEARING TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.3N 59.8W
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM E OF TRINIDAD
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

The government of Barbados has canceled the Tropical Storm Warning
for St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Tobago
* Grenada and its dependencies

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case
within the next 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was
located near latitude 10.3 North, longitude 59.8 West. Gonzalo is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A general westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected for the next couple of days.
On the forecast track, Gonzalo will move across the southern
Windward Islands this afternoon or evening and over the southeastern
Caribbean Sea on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast before Gonzalo reaches
the southern Windward Islands later today. Weakening is expected
after Gonzalo moves over the southeastern Caribbean Sea, and the
system is forecast to dissipate by Sunday night or Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web a www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of
the Tropical Storm Warning area today.

RAINFALL: Gonzalo is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches in
Barbados, the Windward Islands, and Trinidad and Tobago through
Sunday night. Gonzalo is also expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches in northeastern Venezuela through
Monday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2020-07-25 08:45


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 250843
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
500 AM AST Sat Jul 25 2020

On the last leg in the east semicircle of Gonzalo, the 53rd Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported numerous SFMR winds
of 35 to 40 kts, with lighter winds at flight-level. The surface
circulation, however, was still poorly defined, and barely closed.
Based on the reconnaissance observations, the initial intensity is
held at 35 kt for this advisory.

Due to the fact that Gonzalo is moving within an impeding
thermodynamic environment, little change in intensity is forecast
as the cyclone approaches the southern Windward Islands this
afternoon. As Gonzalo moves into the eastern Caribbean Sea,
lingering large-scale subsidence and the cyclone's close proximity
to the coast of Venezuela are predicted to cause the system to
weaken and degenerate into a trough of low pressure in a couple of
days which is consistent with the global model's solution.

The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 270/15 kt.
Gonzalo should gain very little latitude with time as it continues
moving westward to west-northwestward within the fresh low-level
tradewind flow. The official forecast is once again nudged a bit
toward the south and aligns with the NOAA HFIP HCCA consensus model.


Key Messages

1. Gonzalo is forecast to bring tropical storm conditions to
a portion of the southern Windward Islands today and tonight.
Tropical Storm Warnings are currently in effect for some of
the islands. Interests in the southern Windward Islands should
monitor the progress of Gonzalo and follow any advice given by local
officials.

2. Gonzalo is expected to produce heavy rain over portions of the
southern Windward Islands. This could lead to life-threatening
flash flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 10.1N 58.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 10.7N 61.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 11.5N 65.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 12.1N 69.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2020-07-25 08:44


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 250842
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gonzalo Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
500 AM AST Sat Jul 25 2020

...POORLY ORGANIZED GONZALO STILL PRODUCING A SMALL AREA OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...
...GONZALO FORECAST TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN TO
A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.1N 58.7W
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM E OF TRINIDAD
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
* Tobago
* Grenada and its dependencies

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case
within the next 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was
located near latitude 10.1 North, longitude 58.7 West. Gonzalo is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A general westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected for the next couple of days.
On the forecast track, Gonzalo will move across the southern
Windward Islands this afternoon or evening and over the southeastern
Caribbean Sea on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected before Gonzalo reaches
the southern Windward Islands later today. Weakening is expected
after Gonzalo moves over the southeastern Caribbean Sea, and the
system is forecast to dissipate by Sunday night or Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web a www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of
the Tropical Storm Warning area today.

RAINFALL: Gonzalo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches in
Barbados, the Windward Islands and Trinidad and Tobago through
Sunday night. Gonzalo is also expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches in northeastern Venezuela through
Monday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2020-07-25 08:44


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 250842
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020
0900 UTC SAT JUL 25 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES
* TOBAGO
* GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 58.7W AT 25/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 58.7W AT 25/0900Z
AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 57.8W

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 10.7N 61.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 11.5N 65.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 12.1N 69.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.1N 58.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 25/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

2020-07-25 05:35


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 250532
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gonzalo Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
200 AM AST Sat Jul 25 2020

...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE FINDS TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...
...GONZALO FORECAST TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN TO
A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS BEGINNING TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.0N 57.8W
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM E OF TRINIDAD
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
* Tobago
* Grenada and its dependencies

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case
within the next 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was
located near latitude 10.0 North, longitude 57.8 West. Gonzalo is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A general westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected for the next couple of days.
On the forecast track, Gonzalo will move across the southern
Windward Islands this afternoon or evening and over the eastern
Caribbean Sea on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected before Gonzalo reaches
the southern Windward Islands. Weakening is expected after Gonzalo
moves over the eastern Caribbean Sea, and the system is forecast to
dissipate by Sunday night or Monday.

Data from the Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that the
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web a www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of
the Tropical Storm Warning area today.

RAINFALL: Gonzalo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches in
Barbados, the Windward Islands and Trinidad and Tobago through
Sunday night. Gonzalo is also expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches in northeastern Venezuela. Rainfall
in Barbados, the Windward Islands and Trinidad and Tobago could lead
to areas of flash flooding.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2020-07-25 04:05


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 250404

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 25.07.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L ANALYSED POSITION : 10.7N 25.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 25.07.2020 0 10.7N 25.8W 1010 20
1200UTC 25.07.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM HANNA ANALYSED POSITION : 27.1N 94.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 25.07.2020 0 27.1N 94.2W 999 36
1200UTC 25.07.2020 12 27.0N 96.4W 994 44
0000UTC 26.07.2020 24 26.3N 97.8W 986 51
1200UTC 26.07.2020 36 25.6N 99.8W 986 43
0000UTC 27.07.2020 48 24.4N 101.0W 1000 25
1200UTC 27.07.2020 60 24.4N 102.7W 1007 18
0000UTC 28.07.2020 72 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE DOUGLAS ANALYSED POSITION : 17.6N 144.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 25.07.2020 0 17.6N 144.4W 971 68
1200UTC 25.07.2020 12 18.6N 147.6W 984 62
0000UTC 26.07.2020 24 19.6N 150.6W 991 53
1200UTC 26.07.2020 36 20.4N 153.4W 995 49
0000UTC 27.07.2020 48 21.5N 156.3W 998 55
1200UTC 27.07.2020 60 21.6N 159.4W 1005 41
0000UTC 28.07.2020 72 22.3N 162.9W 1009 37
1200UTC 28.07.2020 84 22.9N 166.9W 1011 36
0000UTC 29.07.2020 96 23.7N 170.7W 1013 32
1200UTC 29.07.2020 108 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM GONZALO ANALYSED POSITION : 10.3N 55.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 25.07.2020 0 10.3N 55.8W 1009 27
1200UTC 25.07.2020 12 11.0N 59.3W 1011 27
0000UTC 26.07.2020 24 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 13.3N 45.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.07.2020 60 13.3N 45.0W 1008 31
0000UTC 28.07.2020 72 13.6N 49.0W 1007 33
1200UTC 28.07.2020 84 14.1N 53.4W 1006 36
0000UTC 29.07.2020 96 15.4N 57.3W 1003 40
1200UTC 29.07.2020 108 16.7N 60.9W 1000 43
0000UTC 30.07.2020 120 18.2N 64.9W 994 50
1200UTC 30.07.2020 132 19.7N 68.0W 988 54
0000UTC 31.07.2020 144 21.4N 70.5W 972 74


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 250404

>

2020-07-25 04:05


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 250404

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 25.07.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L ANALYSED POSITION : 10.7N 25.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 25.07.2020 10.7N 25.8W WEAK
12UTC 25.07.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM HANNA ANALYSED POSITION : 27.1N 94.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 25.07.2020 27.1N 94.2W MODERATE
12UTC 25.07.2020 27.0N 96.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 26.07.2020 26.3N 97.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 26.07.2020 25.6N 99.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.07.2020 24.4N 101.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 27.07.2020 24.4N 102.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 28.07.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE DOUGLAS ANALYSED POSITION : 17.6N 144.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 25.07.2020 17.6N 144.4W STRONG
12UTC 25.07.2020 18.6N 147.6W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 26.07.2020 19.6N 150.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 26.07.2020 20.4N 153.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 27.07.2020 21.5N 156.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.07.2020 21.6N 159.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 28.07.2020 22.3N 162.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.07.2020 22.9N 166.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.07.2020 23.7N 170.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.07.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM GONZALO ANALYSED POSITION : 10.3N 55.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 25.07.2020 10.3N 55.8W WEAK
12UTC 25.07.2020 11.0N 59.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.07.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 13.3N 45.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 27.07.2020 13.3N 45.0W WEAK
00UTC 28.07.2020 13.6N 49.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.07.2020 14.1N 53.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.07.2020 15.4N 57.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.07.2020 16.7N 60.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.07.2020 18.2N 64.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 30.07.2020 19.7N 68.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 31.07.2020 21.4N 70.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 250404

>

2020-07-25 02:43


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 250240
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
1100 PM AST Fri Jul 24 2020

Although there has been a recent increase in deep convection in
association with Gonzalo, data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft continues to show that the tropical cyclone is
poorly organized. The aircraft has not yet found winds to support
tropical storm strength, however the advisory intensity will remain
a possibly generous 35-kt until the aircraft completes its mission
overnight. There is also some possibility that this recent
convective burst could result in some short-term re-organization.
However, with the system losing organization over the past day or
so, it is becoming less likely that the small cyclone will be able
to significantly recover due to the nearby dry mid-level
environment. The updated NHC intensity forecast no longer calls
for any re-strengthening, and Gonzalo could even become a tropical
depression before reaching the Windward Islands. After that time,
dry air and Gonzalo's close proximity to the coast of Venezuela are
likely to cause the system to weaken and degenerate into a trough
of low pressure. The NHC forecast now calls for dissipation by
60 h, but this could occur sooner.

Gonzalo continues moving generally westward or 270/15 kt. The
system is not expected to gain much latitude as it should continue
moving westward to west-northwestward within the low-level easterly
flow. The track guidance continues to trend southward and the NHC
track forecast has again been shifted in that direction. The new
track lies to the south of the consensus aids, closest to the GFS
and UKMET ensemble means.


Key Messages

1. Gonzalo is forecast to bring tropical storm conditions to
a portion of the southern Windward Islands Saturday and Saturday
night. Tropical Storm Warnings are currently in effect for some of
the islands. Interests in the southern Windward Islands should
monitor the progress of Gonzalo and follow any advice given by local
officials.

2. Gonzalo is expected to produce heavy rain over portions of the
southern Windward Islands. This could lead to life-threatening
flash flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 10.0N 57.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 10.4N 59.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 11.3N 62.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 12.2N 66.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 12.7N 69.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-07-25 02:41


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 250239
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gonzalo Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
1100 PM AST Fri Jul 24 2020

...GONZALO FORECAST TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN TO
A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS BEGINNING SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.0N 57.1W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM E OF TRINIDAD
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
* Tobago
* Grenada and its dependencies

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case
within the next 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was
located near latitude 10.0 North, longitude 57.1 West. Gonzalo is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A general westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected for the next couple of days.
On the forecast track, Gonzalo will move across the southern
Windward Islands Saturday afternoon or evening and over the eastern
Caribbean Sea on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected before Gonzalo reaches
the southern Windward Islands. Weakening is expected after Gonzalo
moves over the eastern Caribbean Sea and the system is forecast to
dissipate by Sunday night or Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web a www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of
the Tropical Storm Warning area beginning on Saturday.

RAINFALL: Gonzalo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches in
Barbados, the Windward Islands and Trinidad and Tobago through
Sunday night. Gonzalo is also expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches in northeastern Venezuela. Rainfall
in Barbados, the Windward Islands and Trinidad and Tobago could lead
to areas of flash flooding.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-07-25 02:41


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 250239
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020
0300 UTC SAT JUL 25 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES
* TOBAGO
* GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 57.1W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 57.1W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 56.3W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 10.4N 59.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 11.3N 62.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 12.2N 66.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 12.7N 69.7W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.0N 57.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 25/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2020-07-24 23:56


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 242354
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gonzalo Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
800 PM AST Fri Jul 24 2020

...GONZALO CONTINUES WESTWARD...
...FORECAST TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS BEGINNING SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.0N 56.3W
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

The government of Barbados has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Barbados.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
* Tobago
* Grenada and its dependencies

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case
within the next 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was
located near latitude 10.0 North, longitude 56.3 West. Gonzalo is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A general westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected for the next couple of days.
On the forecast track, Gonzalo will move across the southern
Windward Islands Saturday afternoon or evening and over the eastern
Caribbean Sea on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible before Gonzalo reaches
the southern Windward Islands. Weakening is expected after Gonzalo
moves over the eastern Caribbean Sea and the system is forecast to
dissipate early next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web a www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of
the Tropical Storm Warning area beginning on Saturday.

RAINFALL: Gonzalo is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches in
Barbados and the Windward Islands through Sunday night. Gonzalo is
also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches
in Trinidad and Tobago as well as 1 to 2 inches over northeastern
Venezuela. Rainfall in Barbados and the Windward Islands could lead
to life-threatening flash floods.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-07-24 20:39


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 242037
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
500 PM AST Fri Jul 24 2020

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated Gonzalo
earlier this afternoon and found it to very poorly organized. The
aircraft even reported seeing multiple low-level swirls which is
surprising given the small size of the cyclone. The highest
flight-level winds measured by the plane were 41 kt while the
highest believable SFMR values were right around 35 kt. Based on
that data, Gonzalo's intensity has been lowered to 35 kt.

Small systems like Gonzalo are notorious for quick changes in
structure and intensity, both up and down. Therefore, despite its
current downswing, it is too soon to say for sure that Gonzalo will
not restrengthen to some degree before it reaches the southern
Windward Islands. That said, confidence in the intensity forecast is
a little higher now that we have better data to base the forecast on
and it does not seem likely that Gonzalo will overcome the dry air
that is currently inhibiting its development. Given the current
structure of the tropical storm, the NHC intensity forecast has been
lowered significantly, but still allows for some slight
restrengthening during the next 24 h. The new forecast is much
closer to the intensity consensus, below only the HWRF model which
does not appear to have a realistic initialization. Once Gonzalo
reaches the eastern Caribbean, weakening is anticipated and the
cyclone is forecast to dissipate within 3 days, if not sooner.

Gonzalo has sped westward all day with a motion near 270/16 kt. The
guidance continues to insist that Gonzalo will gain a little
latitude in the near future, and a general westward to
west-northwestward motion is still forecast for the next few days.
The NHC track forecast has again been shifted southward, but now
lies near the middle of the guidance envelope and very near the
various track consensus aids.

Key Messages

1. Gonzalo is forecast to bring tropical storm conditions across
portions of the southern Windward Islands Saturday and Saturday
night. Tropical Storm Warnings are currently in effect for some of
the islands. Interests in the southern Windward Islands should
monitor the progress of Gonzalo and follow any advice given by local
officials.

2. Gonzalo is expected to produce heavy rain over portions of the
southern Windward Islands. This could lead to life-threatening
flash flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 10.0N 55.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 10.4N 58.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 11.4N 61.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 12.2N 64.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 13.1N 67.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 27/0600Z 13.4N 71.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2020-07-24 20:39


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 242036
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gonzalo Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
500 PM AST Fri Jul 24 2020

...GONZALO FORECAST TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.0N 55.6W
ABOUT 390 MI...625 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

The government of Trinidad and Tobago has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for Tobago and Grenada.

The government of St. Lucia has canceled the Tropical Storm
Warning for St. Lucia.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
* Tobago
* Grenada and its dependencies

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case
within about 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was
located near latitude 10.0 North, longitude 55.6 West. Gonzalo is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A general westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected for the next couple of days.
On the forecast track, Gonzalo will move across the southern
Windward Islands Saturday afternoon or evening and over the eastern
Caribbean Sea on Sunday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Gonzalo's maximum sustained winds have decreased
to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight
strengthening is possible before Gonzalo reaches the southern
Windward Islands. Weakening is expected after Gonzalo moves over
the eastern Caribbean Sea and the system is forecast to dissipate
early next week.

Data from the Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web a www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of
the Tropical Storm Warning area beginning on Saturday.

RAINFALL: Gonzalo is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches in
Barbados and the Windward Islands through Sunday night. Gonzalo is
also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches
in Trinidad and Tobago as well as 1 to 2 inches over northeastern
Venezuela. Rainfall in Barbados and the Windward Islands could lead
to life-threatening flash floods.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2020-07-24 20:38


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 242036
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020
2100 UTC FRI JUL 24 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR TOBAGO AND GRENADA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS CANCELED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES
* TOBAGO
* GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE
WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 55.6W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 55.6W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 54.8W

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 10.4N 58.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 11.4N 61.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 12.2N 64.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 13.1N 67.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 13.4N 71.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.0N 55.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 25/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2020-07-24 17:48


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 241746
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gonzalo Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
200 PM AST Fri Jul 24 2020

...HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INVESTIGATING GONZALO...
...GONZALO EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS ON SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.9N 54.8W
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

The government of Barbados has canceled the Hurricane Watch for
Barbados and St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
* St. Lucia

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tobago
* Grenada and its dependencies

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was
located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 9.9 North, longitude 54.8 West. Gonzalo is moving toward
the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A general westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of
days. On the forecast track, the center of Gonzalo will approach the
southern Windward Islands tonight and then move across the islands
on Saturday and over the eastern Caribbean Sea on Sunday.

The Hurricane Hunter aircraft has not yet completed its survey of
Gonzalo, but preliminary data indicate that maximum sustained winds
are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. There is considerable
uncertainty in the intensity forecast, but some strengthening is
possible during the next day or so before Gonzalo reaches the
southern Windward Islands. Weakening is expected after Gonzalo moves
into the Caribbean Sea, and the cyclone is expected to dissipate by
the middle of next week.

Gonzalo is a small tropical cyclone. Data from the reconnaissance
aircraft indicate that tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up
to 35 miles (55 km) from the center.

The most recent minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane
Hunter plane was 1008 mb (29.76 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of
the Tropical Storm Warning area on Saturday.

RAINFALL: Gonzalo is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches in
Barbados and the Windward Islands through Sunday night. Gonzalo is
also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches
in Trinidad and Tobago as well as 1 to 2 inches over northeastern
Venezuela. Rainfall in Barbados and the Windward Islands could lead
to life-threatening flash floods.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2020-07-24 15:00


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 241458
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
1100 AM AST Fri Jul 24 2020

Gonzalo continues to produce bursts of deep convection, especially
in the southeast quadrant, but has not become any better organized
overall since the last advisory. Microwave imagery overnight
indicated the low-level structure of Gonzalo is still largely
intact, but this has not translated into better convective
organization. ASCAT data valid shortly after 12Z revealed that
Gonzalo has accelerated west faster than anticipated and has not
strengthened. In fact the strongest winds in the ASCAT data were
only 30-35 kt. The resolution of ASCAT likely limits its ability to
sample the actual max winds of small storms like Gonzalo, but it is
another indication that the cyclone has not strengthened and could
be weakening. The initial intensity for this advisory is set
at 45 kt, based primarily on the latest TAFB Dvorak fix and the
UW-CIMSS SATCON. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
scheduled to investigate the storm this afternoon will provide a
more information about Gonzalo's intensity and structure.

Due primarily to the adjusted initial position, the NHC track
forecast has been adjusted a fair amount west and south of the
previous advisory. Overall Gonzalo is still forecast to move
generally westward or west-northwestward through the period,
steered by the subtropical ridge to the north. The new NHC forecast
lies between the old forecast, adjusted for the new initial
position, and the HFIP Corrected Consensus.

The intensity guidance is generally lower than it has been for the
last day or so, and none of the operational models forecast Gonzalo
to reach hurricane strength. Unfortunately, small storms like
Gonzalo are often subject to large swings in intensity, up or down,
and that aspect of the forecast remains highly uncertain, even
though the spread in the guidance is not particularly high. The NHC
forecast has been adjusted only slightly lower for this cycle and
is now above all of the guidance at the time the system is
forecast to pass through the Windward Islands. A larger
adjustment could be made later today if the most recent model
trends continue, or if the recon mission finds that Gonzalo is even
weaker than the current estimates.


Key Messages

1. Gonzalo is forecast to bring tropical storm conditions across
portions of the southern Windward Islands Saturday and Saturday
night. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warning and Watches are
currently in effect for some of the islands. Interests in the
southern Windward Islands should monitor the progress of Gonzalo and
follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Gonzalo is expected to produce heavy rain over portions of the
southern Windward Islands. This could lead to life-threatening
flash flooding.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 10.0N 54.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 10.5N 56.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 11.4N 59.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 12.4N 62.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 13.0N 65.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 27/0000Z 13.7N 69.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 14.0N 72.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2020-07-24 15:00


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 241457
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020
1500 UTC FRI JUL 24 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES
* ST. LUCIA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TOBAGO
* GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 54.2W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 54.2W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 53.3W

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 10.5N 56.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 11.4N 59.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 12.4N 62.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 13.0N 65.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 13.7N 69.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 14.0N 72.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.0N 54.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 24/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2020-07-24 14:59


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 241457
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gonzalo Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
1100 AM AST Fri Jul 24 2020

...GONZALO ACCELERATES TOWARD THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...
...EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE
ISLANDS ON SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.0N 54.2W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
* St. Lucia

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tobago
* Grenada and its dependencies

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was
located near latitude 10.0 North, longitude 54.2 West. Gonzalo is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A general westward- to
west-northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of
days. On the forecast track, the center of Gonzalo will approach the
southern Windward Islands tonight and then move across the islands
on Saturday and over the eastern Caribbean Sea on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
There is considerable uncertainty in the intensity forecast, but
some strengthening is still possible during the next day or so
before Gonzalo reaches the southern Windward Islands. Weakening is
expected after Gonzalo moves into the Caribbean Sea, and the cyclone
is expected to dissipate by the middle of next week.

Gonzalo is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of
the Tropical Storm Warning area on Saturday. Hurricane conditions
are possible on Saturday within the Hurricane Watch area.

RAINFALL: Gonzalo is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches in
Barbados and the Windward Islands through Sunday night. Gonzalo is
also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches
in Trinidad and Tobago as well as 1 to 2 inches over northeastern
Venezuela. Rainfall in Barbados and the Windward Islands could lead
to life-threatening flash floods.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2020-07-24 11:57


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 241155
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gonzalo Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
800 AM AST Fri Jul 24 2020

...GONZALO FORECAST TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS ON SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.0N 52.8W
ABOUT 580 MI...930 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* St. Lucia

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tobago
* Grenada and its dependencies

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), satellite data indicated that the center
of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was located near latitude 10.0 North,
longitude 52.8 West. Gonzalo is moving toward the west near 15 mph
(24 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion with an increase
in forward speed is expected through the weekend. On the forecast
track, the center of Gonzalo will approach the southern Windward
Islands tonight and then move across the islands on Saturday and
over the eastern Caribbean Sea on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two,
and there is still a chance that Gonzalo could become a hurricane
before reaching the Windward Islands. Weakening is expected after
Gonzalo moves into the Caribbean Sea, and the cyclone is expected to
dissipate by the middle of next week.

Gonzalo is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of
the Tropical Storm Warning area on Saturday. Hurricane conditions
are possible on Saturday within the Hurricane Watch area.

RAINFALL: Gonzalo is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches in
Barbados and the Windward Islands tonight through Sunday night.
Gonzalo is also expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 2 inches in Trinidad and Tobago. Rainfall in Barbados and
the Windward Islands could lead to life-threatening flash floods.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2020-07-24 08:44


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 240842
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
500 AM AST Fri Jul 24 2020

Conventional satellite imagery indicates that Gonzalo's cloud
pattern has changed little during the past several hours. The
cyclone continues to produce an area of deep convection, although
quite shapeless, with very cold cloud tops. A compromise of the
subjective T-numbers from TAFB and SAB along with an earlier SATCON
estimate of 55 kt yields an initial intensity of 50 kt for this
advisory. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft scheduled to
investigate the storm later this afternoon will provide a more
precise intensity estimate.

The statistical-dynamical intensity guidance as well as the
deterministic models all show Gonzalo strengthening as it
approaches the southern Windward Islands. The HWRF, Decay
SHIPS and the LGEM are the only guidance indicating a
hurricane around the 36 hour period. Afterward, Gonzalo is
forecast to move into a more inhibiting thermodynamic
environment over the weekend. Accordingly, the intensity forecast
calls for weakening on Sunday as Gonzalo enters the eastern
Caribbean sea and dissipation in 96 hours, or sooner as a couple of
the large-scale models suggest. The intensity forecast is
basically an update of the previous advisory through 36 hours,
indicating a hurricane approaching and moving over the southern
Windward Islands, and a faster weakening trend afterward,
out of respect to the global model's prediction.

The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 275/12 kt
and Gonzalo is being steered by a building subtropical ridge to the
system's north. The cyclone is expected to increase in forward
speed toward the west and west-northwest through the entire period.
The NHC official forecast is an update of the previous advisory and
is based on the various consensus aids.

Key Messages

1. The risk of wind and rain impacts from Gonzalo in portions of
the southern Windward Islands this weekend continues to increase,
however there is significant uncertainty in how strong Gonzalo will
be when it moves across the islands.

2. Despite the uncertainty in Gonzalo's future intensity, hurricane
or tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the
southern Windward Islands Saturday and Saturday night. Hurricane
and Tropical Storm Warning and Watches are currently in effect for
some of the islands. Interests in the southern Windward Islands
should monitor the progress of Gonzalo and follow any advice given
by local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 10.0N 51.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 10.3N 53.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 11.0N 56.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 12.0N 59.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 13.0N 63.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 26/1800Z 13.7N 66.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 14.0N 69.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2020-07-24 08:44


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 240841
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gonzalo Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
500 AM AST Fri Jul 24 2020

...TINY GONZALO EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS ON SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.0N 51.8W
ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

The government of St. Lucia has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
St. Lucia.

The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm warning for
Barbados, St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* St. Lucia

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tobago
* Grenada and its dependencies

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was
located near latitude 10.0 North, longitude 51.8 West. Gonzalo is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is
expected through the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of
Gonzalo will approach the southern Windward Islands tonight and
move across these islands Saturday and into the eastern Caribbean
Sea Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and
there is still a chance that Gonzalo could become a hurricane
before reaching the Windward Islands. Weakening is expected after
Gonzalo moves into the Caribbean Sea, and the cyclone is expected to
dissipate by the middle of next week.

Gonzalo is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane or tropical storm conditions are possible within
the respective watch areas on Saturday.

RAINFALL: Gonzalo is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches in
Barbados and the Windward Islands tonight through Sunday night.
Gonzalo is also expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 2 inches in Trinidad and Tobago. Rainfall in Barbados and
the Windward Islands could lead to life-threatening flash floods.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2020-07-24 08:44


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 240841
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020
0900 UTC FRI JUL 24 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
ST. LUCIA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. LUCIA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TOBAGO
* GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 51.8W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 51.8W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 51.2W

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 10.3N 53.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 11.0N 56.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 12.0N 59.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 13.0N 63.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 13.7N 66.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 14.0N 69.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.0N 51.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 24/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

2020-07-24 05:37


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 240535
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gonzalo Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
200 AM AST Fri Jul 24 2020

...COMPACT GONZALO EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO
THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS ON SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.9N 51.2W
ABOUT 685 MI...1105 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT...

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tobago
* Grenada and its dependencies

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings will
likely be required for some of these islands later this morning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was
located near latitude 9.9 North, longitude 51.2 West. Gonzalo is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is
expected through the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of
Gonzalo will approach the southern Windward Islands tonight and
move across these islands Saturday and into the eastern Caribbean
Sea Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two,
and there is still a chance that Gonzalo could become a hurricane
before reaching the Windward Islands. Weakening is expected after
Gonzalo moves into the Caribbean Sea and the cyclone is expected to
dissipate by the middle of next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane or tropical storm conditions are possible within
the respective watch areas on Saturday.

RAINFALL: Gonzalo is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches in
Barbados and the Windward Islands tonight through Sunday night.
Gonzalo is also expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 2 inches in Trinidad and Tobago. Rainfall in Barbados and
the Windward Islands could lead to life-threatening flash floods.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2020-07-24 02:43


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 240240
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
1100 PM AST Thu Jul 23 2020

After ingesting a hefty portion of dry high statically stable air
this morning, Gonzalo appears to be on the comeback trail.
Enhanced infrared BD-curve imagery shows that a small Central Dense
Overcast with cloud tops of -80C is redeveloping over the surface
center. A compromise of the available subjective and objective
satellite intensity estimates supports maintaining 50 kt for this
advisory.

This morning's upper air sounding from Barbados revealed a very
dry, high statically stable atmosphere with a mean RH of 23 percent
and a CAPE of only 327 J/Kg. Consequently, Gonzalo will be moving
into a rather harsh thermodynamic environment over the weekend. As
a result, the NHC forecast calls for weakening beyond the 48 hour
period as it enters the eastern Caribbean sea and dissipation well
south of Hispaniola at day 5, or sooner as a few of the global
models suggest. The intensity forecast is basically an update of
the previous advisory through 48 hours, indicating a hurricane
approaching and moving over the southern Windward Islands, and a
faster weakening trend beyond day 2, similar to a consensus of the
large-scale models.

The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 275/12 kt
within the stiff mid-tropospheric steering flow provided by an
anchored subtropical ridge to the cyclone's north. The song
remains the same, with Gonzalo expected to speed up toward the west
and west-northwest through the entire period. The NHC official
forecast is based on a blend of the various consensus aids and is
down the middle of the tightly clustered guidance.

Key Messages

1. The risk of wind and rain impacts from Gonzalo in portions of
the southern Windward Islands this weekend continues to increase,
however there is significant uncertainty in how strong Gonzalo will
be when it moves across the islands.

2. Despite the uncertainty in Gonzalo's future intensity, hurricane
or tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the
southern Windward Islands Saturday and Saturday night. Hurricane
and Tropical Storm Watches are currently in effect for some of
the islands, and additional watches or warnings could be required
tonight or early Friday. Interests in the southern Windward Islands
should monitor the progress of Gonzalo and follow any advice given
by local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 9.9N 50.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 10.2N 52.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 10.7N 55.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 11.5N 58.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 12.3N 61.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 26/1200Z 13.3N 64.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 13.9N 67.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 28/0000Z 14.4N 73.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2020-07-24 02:41


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 240239
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gonzalo Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
1100 PM AST Thu Jul 23 2020

...GONZALO A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...
...EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS ON SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.9N 50.6W
ABOUT 730 MI...1170 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT...

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tobago
* Grenada and its dependencies

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings will
likely be required for some of these islands tonight or on Friday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was
located near latitude 9.9 North, longitude 50.6 West. Gonzalo is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is
expected through the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of
Gonzalo will approach the southern Windward Islands Friday night and
move across the islands Saturday and into the eastern Caribbean Sea
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and
there is still a chance that Gonzalo could become a hurricane.
Weakening is expected after Gonzalo moves into the Caribbean Sea
and the cyclone is expected to dissipate by the middle of next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane or tropical storm conditions are possible within
the respective watch areas on Saturday.

RAINFALL: Gonzalo is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches in
Barbados and the Windward Islands from Friday night through Sunday
night. Gonzalo is also expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 2 inches in Trinidad and Tobago. Rainfall in Barbados and
the Windward Islands could lead to life-threatening flash floods.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2020-07-24 02:41


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 240238
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020
0300 UTC FRI JUL 24 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TOBAGO
* GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE ISLANDS TONIGHT OR ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 50.6W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 15SE 15SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 50.6W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 50.0W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 10.2N 52.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 10.7N 55.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 11.5N 58.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 12.3N 61.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 13.3N 64.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 13.9N 67.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 14.4N 73.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.9N 50.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 24/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

2020-07-23 23:26


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 232323
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gonzalo Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
800 PM AST Thu Jul 23 2020

...GONZALO STILL HEADING DUE WEST...
...EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS ON SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.7N 49.9W
ABOUT 775 MI...1250 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT...

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tobago
* Grenada

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings will
likely be required for some of these islands tonight or on Friday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was
located near latitude 9.7 North, longitude 49.9 West. Gonzalo is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is
expected through the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of
Gonzalo will approach the southern Windward Islands Friday night and
move across the islands Saturday and into the eastern Caribbean Sea
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two,
and there is still a chance that Gonzalo could become a hurricane.
Weakening is expected after Gonzalo moves into the Caribbean Sea.

Gonzalo is a compact tropical storm, and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane or tropical storm conditions are possible within
the respective watch areas on Saturday.

RAINFALL: Gonzalo is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches in
Barbados and the Windward Islands from Friday night through Sunday
night. Gonzalo is also expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 2 inches in Trinidad and Tobago. Rainfall in Barbados and
the Windward Islands could lead to life-threatening flash floods.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2020-07-23 20:44


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 232041
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
500 PM AST Thu Jul 23 2020

Scatterometer data received just after the release of the previous
advisory only showed winds of 40-45 kt, but given Gonzalo's small
size, it's unlikely that the resolution of the instrument was able
to capture the maximum winds. Even correcting for that, Gonzalo's
winds were lowered to 50 kt on the 2 PM intermediate advisory, and
that still looks good now with satellite intensity estimates
ranging from 35 kt to 55 kt. Structure-wise, deep convection has
redeveloped on top of Gonzalo's center, so the storm is not ready
to give up its fight quite yet.

There is still greater-than-normal uncertainty in Gonzalo's
forecast intensity due to its small size and how it will behave in
an environment of relatively light shear and warm sea surface
temperatures counterbalanced by a lot of dry air. The statistical
and dynamical hurricane models continue to show strengthening, while
several of the global models, in particular the ECMWF and UKMET,
still show Gonzalo weakening and opening up into a trough near or
after it passes the Windward Islands. Based on the lower initial
intensity and the latest guidance, the new official forecast
has been lowered slightly, but it still brings Gonzalo to the
hurricane threshold in 36-48 hours. Either way, Gonzalo's small
size makes it susceptible to short-term changes in intensity that
cannot be reflected in the official forecast. There is more
confidence that weakening will occur after Gonzalo moves over the
Caribbean Sea, with even the GFS showing the system becoming a
trough. Given that, dissipation is now shown in the forecast at day
5.

Gonzalo's initial motion is westward, or 275/11 kt. There has been
no change in the track forecast reasoning, with Gonzalo expected to
accelerate toward the west and west-northwest through the forecast
period. The track guidance is fairly tightly clustered, showing
Gonzalo's center crossing somewhere through the Windward Islands
between 48-60 hours. Some of the models shifted northward a bit on
this cycle, and the NHC track forecast has therefore been nudged in
that direction close to the multi-model consensus aids, HCCA, and
the Florida State Superensemble. However, users should not focus
on these relatively small shifts in the forecast track from cycle
to cycle, and for the Windward Islands in particular, consider that
48-60 hour forecast points can be off by an average of 60-80 nm.

Key Messages

1. The risk of wind and rain impacts from Gonzalo in portions of
the southern Windward Islands this weekend continues to increase,
however there is significant uncertainty in how strong Gonzalo will
be when it moves across the islands.

2. Despite the uncertainty in Gonzalo's future intensity, hurricane
or tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the
southern Windward Islands Saturday and Saturday night. Hurricane
and Tropical Storm Watches are currently in effect some of
the islands, and additional watches or warnings could be required
tonight or early Friday. Interests in the southern Windward Islands
should monitor the progress of Gonzalo and follow any advice given
by local officials.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 9.8N 49.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 10.0N 51.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 10.5N 53.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 11.1N 56.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 12.0N 59.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 26/0600Z 13.0N 62.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 13.8N 65.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 14.5N 72.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2020-07-23 20:44


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 232041
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gonzalo Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
500 PM AST Thu Jul 23 2020

...GONZALO CONTINUES WESTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS ON SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.8N 49.4W
ABOUT 810 MI...1305 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

The government of Trinidad and Tobago has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for Tobago and Grenada.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT...

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tobago
* Grenada

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings will
likely be required for some of these islands tonight or on Friday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was
located near latitude 9.8 North, longitude 49.4 West. Gonzalo is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is
expected through the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of
Gonzalo will approach the southern Windward Islands Friday night and
move across the islands Saturday and Saturday evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and
there is still a chance that Gonzalo could become a hurricane.
Weakening is expected after Gonzalo moves into the Caribbean Sea.

Gonzalo is a tiny tropical storm, and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane or tropical storm conditions are possible within
the respective watch areas on Saturday.

RAINFALL: Gonzalo is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches in
Barbados and the Windward Islands from Friday night through Sunday
night. Gonzalo is also expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 2 inches in Trinidad and Tobago. Rainfall in Barbados and
the Windward Islands could lead to life-threatening flash floods.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2020-07-23 20:44


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 232041
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020
2100 UTC THU JUL 23 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR TOBAGO AND GRENADA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TOBAGO
* GRENADA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE ISLANDS TONIGHT OR ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 49.4W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 49.4W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 48.8W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 10.0N 51.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 10.5N 53.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 11.1N 56.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 12.0N 59.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 13.0N 62.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 13.8N 65.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 14.5N 72.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.8N 49.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 24/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

2020-07-23 17:35


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 231733
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gonzalo Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
200 PM AST Thu Jul 23 2020

...GONZALO A LITTLE WEAKER...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.7N 48.8W
ABOUT 850 MI...1370 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT...

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of
this system. Additional watches or warnings will likely be
required for some of these islands later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was
located near latitude 9.7 North, longitude 48.8 West. Gonzalo is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is
expected through the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of
Gonzalo will approach the southern Windward Islands Friday night and
move across the islands Saturday and Saturday evening.

Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds
have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some
re-strengthening is possible during the next couple of days, and
there is still a chance that Gonzalo could become a hurricane.

The satellite wind data indicate that Gonzalo is an even smaller
storm than previously thought, and tropical-storm-force winds only
extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane or tropical storm conditions are possible within
the watch area on Saturday.

RAINFALL: Gonzalo is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches in
Barbados and the Windward Islands from Friday night through Sunday
night. Gonzalo is also expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 2 inches in Trinidad and Tobago. Rainfall in Barbados and
the Windward Islands could lead to life-threatening flash floods.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2020-07-23 14:47


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 231445
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
1100 AM AST Thu Jul 23 2020

Recently-obtained GCOM and WindSat microwave data from overnight
shows that Gonzalo's center is a little farther south than
previously estimated. In addition, the storm's structure has
become a little disheveled since yesterday, with the deep
convection losing some organization. SAB's data-T number responded
to this by falling to 2.5, but overall the CI numbers and SATCON
support maintaining 55 kt for now.

There is still an incredible amount of uncertainty in Gonzalo's
intensity forecast. Sea surface temperatures to the east of the
Windward Islands are warm--close to 29C--and the storm is likely to
be moving through an environment of relatively light shear at least
for the next 48 hours or so. The ambient environment is not
particularly moist, however, with mid-level relative humidity
generally around 50 percent, and it already appears that this dry
air is affecting Gonzalo. Small cyclones like Gonzalo tend to
succumb to any type of adverse environmental conditions quite
easily, and it's possible that the system could struggle during the
next couple of days. This is the solution shown by some of the
global models, particularly the ECMWF and UKMET. On the other
hand, the hurricane statistical and dynamical models, as well as
the GFS, continue to show Gonzalo strengthening to a hurricane
before it reaches the Windward Islands. Out of an abundance of
caution, the official forecast continues to show Gonzalo becoming a
hurricane in about 24 hours, but the uncertainty in this scenario
cannot be stressed enough. There is a higher degree of certainty
that Gonzalo would weaken once it moves over the eastern and
central Caribbean Sea, where even the GFS shows it opening up into
a wave.

Even with the southward adjustment of the initial position, Gonzalo
still appears to be moving westward, or 270/12 kt. The subtropical
ridge to the north is forecast to push Gonzalo toward the west or
west-northwest, with an increase in forward speed, for the entire
5-day forecast period. Much of the track uncertainty hinges on
exactly how strong Gonzalo gets, with the stronger model
representations showing the storm making more poleward process.
Models such as the ECMWF and UKMET, which keep Gonzalo weak or open
it up into a trough, are along the southern side of the guidance
envelope. The updated NHC track forecast has been shifted
southward some, to account for the new initial position and to be a
little closer to the intensity consensus, HCCA, and the Florida
State Superensemble.


Key Messages

1. There is an increasing risk of wind and rain impacts from
Gonzalo in portions of the southern Windward Islands this weekend,
however there is significant uncertainty in how strong Gonzalo will
be when it moves across the islands.

2. Despite the uncertainty in Gonzalo's future intensity, hurricane
conditions are possible across portions of the southern Windward
Islands. Hurricane Watches are currently in effect for Barbados
and St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and additional watches for
other islands could be required later today. Interests in the
southern Windward Islands should monitor the progress of Gonzalo and
follow any advice given by local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 9.6N 48.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 9.8N 50.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 10.1N 52.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 10.5N 55.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 11.2N 59.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 26/0000Z 11.9N 62.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 12.6N 65.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 14.0N 71.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 28/1200Z 15.5N 77.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2020-07-23 14:47


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 231445
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gonzalo Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
1100 AM AST Thu Jul 23 2020

...GONZALO FACES AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE...
...BUT EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
ON SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.6N 48.3W
ABOUT 885 MI...1425 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT...

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of
this system. Additional watches or warnings will likely be
required for some of these islands later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was
located near latitude 9.6 North, longitude 48.3 West. Gonzalo is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is
expected through the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of
Gonzalo will approach the southern Windward Islands Friday night
and move across the islands Saturday and Saturday evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of
days, and Gonzalo could become a hurricane tonight or on Friday.

Gonzalo is a small storm, and tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by
Saturday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions possible by
midday Saturday.

RAINFALL: Gonzalo is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches in
Barbados and the Windward Islands from Friday night through Sunday
night. Gonzalo is also expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 2 inches in Trinidad and Tobago. Rainfall in Barbados and
the Windward Islands could lead to life-threatening flash floods.

Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2020-07-23 14:46


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 231444
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020
1500 UTC THU JUL 23 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE ISLANDS LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 48.3W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT....... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 48.3W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 47.7W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 9.8N 50.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 10.1N 52.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 10.5N 55.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 11.2N 59.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 11.9N 62.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 12.6N 65.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 14.0N 71.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 15.5N 77.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.6N 48.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 23/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

2020-07-23 11:58


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 231156
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gonzalo Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
800 AM AST Thu Jul 23 2020

...GONZALO CONTINUES WESTWARD...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.8N 47.9W
ABOUT 910 MI...1470 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

The government of Barbados has issued a Hurricane Watch for St.
Vincent and the Grenadines.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT...

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of
this system. Additional watches or warnings will likely be
required for some of these islands later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was
located near latitude 9.8 North, longitude 47.9 West. Gonzalo is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A general westward
motion at a faster forward speed is expected today followed by a
turn toward the west-northwest on Saturday. On the forecast track,
the center of Gonzalo would approach the Windward Islands late
Friday and Saturday.

Maximum sustained are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
Gonzalo could become a hurricane later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by
Saturday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions possible by
early Saturday.

RAINFALL: Gonzalo is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches in
Barbados and the Windward Islands from Friday night through Sunday
night. Gonzalo is also expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 2 inches in Trinidad and Tobago. Rainfall in Barbados and
the Windward Islands could lead to life-threatening flash floods.

Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2020-07-23 08:50


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 230848
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gonzalo Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
500 AM AST Thu Jul 23 2020

...GONZALO STRENGTHENS AGAIN WHILE STILL HEADING DUE WEST...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.0N 47.0W
ABOUT 970 MI...1565 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT...

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of
this system. Additional watches or warnings will likely be
required for some of these islands later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was
located near latitude 10.0 North, longitude 47.0 West. Gonzalo is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A general westward
motion at a faster forward speed is expected followed by a turn
toward the west-northwest on Saturday. On the forecast track, the
center of Gonzalo would approach the Windward Islands late Friday
and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Further strengthening is forecast during the
next couple of days, and Gonzalo is expected to become a hurricane
later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2020-07-23 08:44


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 230842
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
500 AM AST Thu Jul 23 2020

A 0441 UTC ATMS/Soumi NPP microwave overpass revealed a
well-developed banding feature wrapping into the center from the
east semi-circle. Cloud tops have once again cooled near the
surface center and subsequently, the Dvorak satellite intensity
estimates from both TAFB and SAB have increased to T3.5 (55 kt).
Accordingly, the initial intensity is raised to 55 kt for this
advisory.

No major changes were made to the intensity forecast and there
still remains a relatively high degree of uncertainty beyond day 3
while the cyclone moves through the Caribbean Sea. Strengthening
is forecast through 48 hours as Gonzalo approaches the Islands and
the forecast is close to a blend of the HCCA intensity consensus,
the IVCN multi-model guidance and the Decay SHIPS. Beyond
mid-period, the forecast reflects a weakening trend in respect to
the European models solution, but at much more gradual rate. It
should also be noted that the small size of this system makes it
susceptible to significant fluctuations in intensity, both upward
and downward.

The initial motion is estimated to be due west, or 270/10 kt.
The forecast track philosophy remains unchanged. Gonzalo is moving
within low to mid-level easterly steering flow produced by a
subtropical ridge anchored to the north of the cyclone, and this
high pressure should steer the storm generally westward at a faster
forward speed for the next few days. After that time, a motion
toward the west-northwest is expected. Two distinct
model clusters with differing forecast track solutions persist. The
European models along with the Canadian indicate a weak cyclone
moving generally westward through the southern Windward Islands and
dissipating in 5 days or less. The NCEP models, on the other hand,
show a much stronger tropical cyclone with a west-northwestward to
northwestward motion toward Hispaniola. The NHC forecast basically
down the middle of these to model clusters and is very close to the
TVCA consensus aid.

Interests in the Windward Islands should continue to monitor the
progress of this system. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for
Barbados.


Key Messages

1. There is an increasing risk of wind and rain impacts from
Gonzalo in portions of the southern Windward Islands this weekend.
Hurricane conditions are possible on Barbados where a hurricane
watch has been issued. Interests in the southern Windward Islands
should monitor the progress of Gonzalo and follow any advice given
by local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 10.0N 47.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 10.1N 48.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 10.4N 51.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 10.9N 53.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 11.5N 57.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 25/1800Z 12.2N 60.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 26/0600Z 13.0N 63.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 27/0600Z 14.8N 68.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 28/0600Z 16.5N 74.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2020-07-23 08:44


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 230841
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020
0900 UTC THU JUL 23 2020

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS.

INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE ISLANDS LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 47.0W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT....... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 15SE 15SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 47.0W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 46.4W

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 10.1N 48.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 10.4N 51.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 10.9N 53.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 11.5N 57.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 12.2N 60.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 13.0N 63.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 14.8N 68.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 16.5N 74.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.0N 47.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 23/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

2020-07-23 05:34


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 230533
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gonzalo Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
200 AM AST Thu Jul 23 2020

...GONZALO HEADING WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.9N 46.2W
ABOUT 1025 MI...1650 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT...

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of
this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was
located near latitude 9.9 North, longitude 46.2 West. Gonzalo is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A general westward
motion at a faster forward speed is expected during the next few
days. On the forecast track, the center of Gonzalo would approach
the Windward Islands late Friday and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
Gonzalo is expected to become a hurricane on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2020-07-23 02:37


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 230235
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
1100 PM AST Wed Jul 22 2020

A series of earlier microwave passes over Gonzalo reveal a small
eye feature beneath a relatively ragged, Central Dense Overcast
with associated -75.5C cloud tops. Based on the evidence
of the small eye and a blend of the subjective and objective
satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity is raised to 50
kt for advisory.

The intensity forecast philosophy remains the same as the previous
advisory with a higher than normal degree of uncertainty in the
latter half of the period as the cyclone moves through the
Caribbean. Gonzalo should remain in an environment of relatively
low shear, although the impacts of dry, stable air and large-scale
subsidence could hamper further intensification in a few days. It's
worth noting that the ECMWF Ensemble model is showing a pretty
significant low- to mid-level easterly surge that spreads
just to the north of the cyclone's forecast track and over the
northeastern Caribbean in a couple of days. This predicted event
could possibly curtail strengthening at that time. On the
other hand, with the exception of the ECMWF, the global models now
show the cyclone maintaining tropical storm strength while moving
into the eastern Caribbean. The official intensity forecast is
adjusted slightly above the previous forecast, hedging toward the
HFIP HCCA consensus and the IVCN multi-model intensity aid
solutions. It should also be noted that the small size of this
system makes it susceptible to significant fluctuations in
intensity, both upward and downward.

The initial motion is estimated to be due west, or 270/10 kt.
There is no change to the track forecast philosophy. Gonzalo is on
the south side of a low- to mid-level tropospheric ridge, and this
feature should steer the storm generally westward at a faster
forward speed for the next few days. After that time, a motion
toward the west-northwest is expected. The NHC track forecast is
nudged a bit to the north of the previous one and is close to the
various consensus aids.

Interests in the Windward Islands should continue to monitor the
progress of this system. A Hurricane Watch is now issued for
Barbados.


Key Messages

1. Gonzalo is expected to move near or over the southern Windward
Islands this weekend, and could bring direct impacts from winds and
heavy rainfall. While it is too soon to determine the magnitude and
timing of those impacts, interests in the southern Windward Islands
should monitor the progress of Gonzalo.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 9.9N 45.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 10.0N 47.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 10.2N 50.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 10.6N 52.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 11.2N 55.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 25/1200Z 11.8N 58.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 12.6N 61.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 27/0000Z 14.3N 67.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 28/0000Z 15.6N 73.1W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2020-07-23 02:36


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 230233
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gonzalo Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
1100 PM AST Wed Jul 22 2020

...GONZALO A LITTLE STRONGER AND HEADING DUE WEST...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR BARBADOS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.9N 45.9W
ABOUT 1045 MI...1685 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
The government of Barbados has issued a Hurricane Watch for
Barbados.

Interests in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of
this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was
located near latitude 9.9 North, longitude 45.9 West. Gonzalo is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A general westward
motion at a faster forward speed is expected during the next few
days. On the forecast track, the center of Gonzalo would approach
the Windward Islands late Friday and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Further strengthening is forecast during the
next couple of days, and Gonzalo is expected to become a hurricane
on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2020-07-23 02:36


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 230233
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020
0300 UTC THU JUL 23 2020

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR
BARBADOS.

INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 45.9W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT....... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 15SE 15SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 45.9W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 45.4W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 10.0N 47.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 10.2N 50.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 10.6N 52.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 11.2N 55.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 11.8N 58.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 12.6N 61.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 14.3N 67.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 15.6N 73.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.9N 45.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 23/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

2020-07-22 20:34


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 222032
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
500 PM AST Wed Jul 22 2020

Satellite imagery suggests that Gonzalo's intensification has
paused since the last advisory. The cyclone continues to show a
central dense overcast, and microwave imagery indicates a small
convective ring present under the overcast. However, the CDO has
become a bit ragged, and the other banding seen earlier has
dissipated. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates
are in the 45-55 kt range, the the initial intensity remains a
possibly conservative 45 kt.

The initial motion is now 270/12. There is no change to the
track forecast philosophy. Gonzalo is on the south side of a low-
to mid-level subtropical ridge, and this feature should steer the
storm generally westward at a faster forward speed for the next 60
h or so. After that time, a motion toward the west-northwest is
expected. The new NHC forecast track is again little changed from
the previous track, and it lies very close to the consensus models.

The intensity forecast remains very problematic and of low
confidence. On one side, the cyclone structure, light shear
environment,and warm sea surface temperatures suggest strengthening,
possibly even rapidly, should occur. In addition, the SHIPS-based
guidance and the HWRF still make the system a hurricane. On the
other side, the GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF models continue to forecast
the system to weaken to an open wave by 120 h, possibly due to dry
air entrainment and large-scale subsidence, and microwave imagery
suggests that a tongue of drier air is present west and southwest
of the cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast again compromises
between these extremes, showing Gonzalo peaking as a hurricane in
36-48 h, followed by weakening in deference to the GFS/UKMET/ECMWF.
The new intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous forecast.
As noted before, the small size of this system makes it
susceptible to significant fluctuations in intensity, both upward
and downward.

Interests in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of
this system, as watches could be issued sometime on Thursday.


Key Messages

1. Gonzalo is expected to move near or over the southern Windward
Islands this weekend, and could bring direct impacts from winds and
heavy rainfall. While it is too soon to determine the magnitude and
timing of those impacts, interests in the southern Windward Islands
should monitor the progress of Gonzalo.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 9.9N 45.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 10.0N 46.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 10.1N 49.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 10.3N 51.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 10.8N 54.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 25/0600Z 11.3N 57.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 12.1N 60.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 14.0N 67.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 27/1800Z 15.0N 72.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-07-22 20:34


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 222031
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020
2100 UTC WED JUL 22 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 45.0W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 45.0W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 44.4W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 10.0N 46.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 10.1N 49.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 10.3N 51.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 10.8N 54.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 11.3N 57.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 12.1N 60.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 14.0N 67.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 15.0N 72.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.9N 45.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2020-07-22 20:33


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 222031
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gonzalo Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
500 PM AST Wed Jul 22 2020

...GONZALO MOVING WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.9N 45.0W
ABOUT 1110 MI...1785 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of
this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was
located near latitude 9.9 North, longitude 45.0 West. Gonzalo is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A general westward
motion at a faster forward speed is expected during the next few
days. On the forecast track, the center of Gonzalo would approach
the Windward Islands late Friday and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
Gonzalo is expected to become a hurricane by Thursday.

Gonzalo is a small tropical cyclone, as tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-07-22 14:42


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 221439
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
1100 AM AST Wed Jul 22 2020

Satellite imagery indicates that the cyclone has become
significantly better organized since the last advisory. Visible
imagery shows a well-defined central dense overcast with a hint of
an eye and an outer convective band in the western semicircle, while
a 09Z GMI microwave overpass showed a well-defined inner convective
ring feature. Various subjective and objective satellite intensity
estimates range from 35-55 kt, so the initial intensity is raised to
a possibly conservative 45 kt.

The initial motion is now 270/10. Gonzalo is on the south side of
a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge, and this feature should
steer the storm generally westward at a faster forward speed for
the next 3 days or so. After that time, a motion toward the
west-northwest is expected. The new NHC forecast track is little
changed from the previous track, and it lies very close to the
consensus models.

The intensity forecast remains very problematic and of low
confidence. On one side, the cyclone has been strengthening quickly
and the good organization suggests additional, and possibly rapid,
strengthening should occur. In addition, the SHIPS-based guidance
and the HWRF make the system a hurricane and keep that intensity
through 120 h. On the other side, the GFS, UKMET, ECMWF, and
Canadian models are not big fans of this system, as they all
forecast it to either be a weak low or dissipated by 120 h, possibly
due to dry air entrainment and large-scale subsidence. The NHC
intensity forecast again compromises between these extremes, showing
Gonzalo peaking as a hurricane in 36-48 h, followed by weakening in
deference to the global models. The new intensity forecast has
significantly higher intensities than the previous forecast for most
of the forecast period based on the recent intensification. As
noted before, the small size of this system makes it susceptible to
significant fluctuations in intensity, both upward and downward.

Interests in the southern Windward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system.

Gonzalo is the earliest 7th named storm on record in the Atlantic
basin, beating Gert of 2005 by 2 days.


Key Messages

1. Gonzalo is expected to move near or over the southern Windward
Islands this weekend, and could bring direct impacts from winds and
heavy rainfall. While it is too soon to determine the magnitude and
timing of those impacts, interests in the southern Windward Islands
should monitor the progress of Gonzalo.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 9.9N 43.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 10.0N 45.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 10.0N 47.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 10.1N 50.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 10.4N 52.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 25/0000Z 10.7N 55.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 11.4N 58.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 13.0N 66.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 27/1200Z 15.0N 71.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-07-22 14:41


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 221438
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gonzalo Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
1100 AM AST Wed Jul 22 2020

...GONZALO CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.9N 43.6W
ABOUT 1205 MI...1935 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of
this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was
located near latitude 9.9 North, longitude 43.6 West. Gonzalo is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A general westward
motion at a faster forward speed is expected during the next few
days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next couple of days, and Gonzalo is expected to become a hurricane
by Thursday.

Gonzalo is a small tropical cyclone, as tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward only up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-07-22 14:41


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 221438
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020
1500 UTC WED JUL 22 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 43.6W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 43.6W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 43.0W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 10.0N 45.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 10.0N 47.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 10.1N 50.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 10.4N 52.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 10.7N 55.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 11.4N 58.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 13.0N 66.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 15.0N 71.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.9N 43.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2020-07-22 12:51


Original Message :

WTNT62 KNHC 221248
TCUAT2

Tropical Storm Gonzalo Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
850 AM AST Wed Jul 22 2020

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN BECOMES TROPICAL STORM GONZALO...

Satellite data indicate that Tropical Depression Seven has
strengthened and is now Tropical Storm Gonzalo with 45 mph
(75 km/h) winds. The intensity forecast will be updated in the
regular advisory at 11 AM AST...1500 UTC.

SUMMARY OF 850 AM AST...1250 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.9N 43.1W
ABOUT 1250 MI...2010 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-07-22 08:34


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 220832
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
500 AM AST Wed Jul 22 2020

The cyclone has become a little better organized this morning with
indications of it developing convective banding features. Intensity
estimates based on Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB are 30
kt and 35 kt respectively. I prefer to wait for consensus 35-kt
estimates before naming the system, but it seems very likely that we
will have Gonzalo over the tropical Atlantic very soon. The
intensity forecast for this system is subject to more than the usual
degree of uncertainty. Although the cyclone is likely to remain in
an environment of fairly low shear, the influences of dry air and
large-scale subsidence could inhibit strengthening in a few days.
The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and calls
for some strengthening during the next couple of days followed by
a leveling off thereafter. This is below the model consensus, but
above the global model predictions which eventually dissipate the
cyclone. It should also be noted that the small size of this
system makes it susceptible to significant fluctuations
in intensity, both upward and downward.

The motion continues a little north of due west or 285/10 kt. A
well-defined subtropical ridge is forecast to remain in place to
the north of the tropical cyclone during the forecast period. The
official forecast, like the previous one, is for a generally
westward motion at a fast forward speed over the forecast periods.
This is in close agreement with the latest dynamical model
consensus.

Interests in the southern Windward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 10.0N 42.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 10.2N 44.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 10.2N 46.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 10.2N 49.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 10.4N 51.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 24/1800Z 10.8N 54.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 25/0600Z 11.3N 57.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 26/0600Z 12.7N 64.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 27/0600Z 15.0N 70.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-07-22 08:34


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 220832
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Seven Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
500 AM AST Wed Jul 22 2020

...SMALL DEPRESSION CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.0N 42.4W
ABOUT 1285 MI...2065 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Interests in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of
this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seven
was located near latitude 10.0 North, longitude 42.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19
km/h). A generally westward motion at a faster forward speed is
expected during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-07-22 08:33


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 220831
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020
0900 UTC WED JUL 22 2020

INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 42.4W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 42.4W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 41.9W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 10.2N 44.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 10.2N 46.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 10.2N 49.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 10.4N 51.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 10.8N 54.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 11.3N 57.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 12.7N 64.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 15.0N 70.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.0N 42.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2020-07-22 02:38


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 220236
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
1100 PM AST Tue Jul 21 2020

The depression remains quite small in size and its cloud pattern
consists of a compact central dense overcast and some convective
bands on its west side. The latest satellite intensity estimates
and a recent ASCAT pass support maintaining the initial intensity
at 30 kt.

The initial motion is west-northwestward at 8 kt. The track
forecast appears fairly straightforward. A strengthening
deep-layer subtropical ridge to the north of the depression should
cause the system to accelerate some toward the west or
west-northwest during the next several days. This steering pattern
should take the cyclone across the eastern Caribbean Islands and
into the Caribbean Sea this weekend. The models are in fairly good
agreement and there is high confidence in the track forecast.

The intensity forecast is much trickier. The models continue to
differ on the evolution of the depression, with the
statistical-dynamical models and some of the hurricane regional
models showing the system becoming a hurricane within the next few
days. Conversely, the global models show little change in strength
and even dissipate the system as it moves across the eastern
Caribbean Sea. The global models seem to indicate that a
combination of the cyclone's fast forward speed and associated
shear, and dry air entrainment should prevent strengthening or lead
to weakening. Given the large amount of uncertainty, only small
changes were made to the previous prediction. This forecast lies a
little below the consensus models giving slightly more weight to
the global model solutions. It should be noted that small systems
like Tropical Depression Seven are often difficult to predict as
they are more likely to fluctuate in strength compared to
larger cyclones.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 10.0N 41.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 10.2N 42.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 10.3N 45.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 10.4N 47.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 10.5N 50.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 24/1200Z 10.8N 52.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 11.3N 56.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 26/0000Z 12.4N 63.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 27/0000Z 13.7N 70.7W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2020-07-22 02:36


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 220234
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Seven Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
1100 PM AST Tue Jul 21 2020

...COMPACT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.0N 41.3W
ABOUT 1360 MI...2185 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seven
was located near latitude 10.0 North, longitude 41.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph. A
faster westward motion is expected during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2020-07-22 02:36


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 220234
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020
0300 UTC WED JUL 22 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 41.3W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 41.3W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 40.8W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 10.2N 42.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 10.3N 45.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 10.4N 47.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 10.5N 50.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 10.8N 52.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 11.3N 56.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 12.4N 63.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 13.7N 70.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.0N 41.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

2020-07-21 20:38


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 212036
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
500 PM AST Tue Jul 21 2020

Satellite imagery and scatterometer data indicate that the low
pressure area located over the central tropical Atlantic has a
well-defined circulation and sufficient organized convection to be
designated a tropical depression. Thus, advisories are being
initiated on Tropical Depression Seven. The initial intensity is
set at 30 kt in best agreement with the subjective satellite
intensity estimate from TAFB.

The initial motion is 300/7. The depression is south of a strong
subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic, and over the next
several days it should turn generally westward and accelerate as it
encounters the easterly flow associated with the ridge. The ECMWF,
GFS, and UKMET models are in reasonably good agreement on their
track forecasts, and the NHC official forecast is close to them and
the various consensus models.

The intensity forecast is lower confidence. The GFS, ECMWF, and
UKMET models forecast the cyclone to be dissipated or be a weak low
by the 120 h point, likely due to to some vertical shear and dry
air entrainment. On the other hand, the SHIPS-based guidance and
the HWRF forecast the system to be a hurricane at 120 h, shrugging
off the shear and dry air. The NHC intensity forecast will be a
compromise between these extremes, showing a peak intensity of 55
kt in 60-72 h followed by some weakening based on the global models.
The cyclone is small in size, and as a result it could change
intensity - both up and down - faster than what is currently
forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 9.8N 40.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 10.1N 41.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 10.3N 43.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 10.3N 46.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 10.4N 49.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 24/0600Z 10.6N 51.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 11.0N 54.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 25/1800Z 12.0N 61.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 26/1800Z 13.5N 68.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-07-21 20:38


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 212035
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Seven Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
500 PM AST Tue Jul 21 2020

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.8N 40.4W
ABOUT 1185 MI...1905 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1420 MI...2285 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seven
was located near latitude 9.8 North, longitude 40.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h).
A turn toward the west with an increase in forward speed is
expected tonight and Wednesday, and that motion should continue
through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or
Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-07-21 20:37


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 212035
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020
2100 UTC TUE JUL 21 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 40.4W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 40.4W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 40.0W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 10.1N 41.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 10.3N 43.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 10.3N 46.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 10.4N 49.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 10.6N 51.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 11.0N 54.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 12.0N 61.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 13.5N 68.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.8N 40.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>