Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for CRISTOBAL-20
in United States, Mexico, Canada, Belize, Guatemala

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

2020-06-09 16:00


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 091559

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 09.06.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTOBAL ANALYSED POSITION : 37.8N 92.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL032020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.06.2020 0 37.8N 92.3W 993 21
0000UTC 10.06.2020 12 42.3N 90.0W 988 31
1200UTC 10.06.2020 24 47.2N 86.3W 982 37
0000UTC 11.06.2020 36 51.2N 80.6W 984 28
1200UTC 11.06.2020 48 50.1N 77.8W 987 26
0000UTC 12.06.2020 60 53.2N 75.5W 984 37
1200UTC 12.06.2020 72 53.6N 72.0W 991 27
0000UTC 13.06.2020 84 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 091559

>

2020-06-09 16:00


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 091559

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 09.06.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTOBAL ANALYSED POSITION : 37.8N 92.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL032020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 09.06.2020 37.8N 92.3W MODERATE
00UTC 10.06.2020 42.3N 90.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.06.2020 47.2N 86.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.06.2020 51.2N 80.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.06.2020 50.1N 77.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.06.2020 53.2N 75.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.06.2020 53.6N 72.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.06.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 091559

>

2020-06-08 14:44


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 081442
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Cristobal Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
1000 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2020

Cristobal continues to move further inland. Surface observations
along with radar and satellite images indicate that the center is
located over northeastern Louisiana. The minimum pressure is
estimated to be 995 mb, and the initial wind speed is held at 30
kt, based on several observations of 25-30 kt along and offshore of
the Mississippi and Alabama coasts. The depression is still
producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms generally to the
north and east of the center.

The depression is moving faster to the northwest than before, and
the latest initial motion estimate is 325/13 kt. The cyclone is
expected to turn to the north by tonight and then accelerate
north-northeastward late Tuesday and Wednesday as it moves in the
flow between a mid-level ridge to its east and a trough to its west.
This track should take Cristobal, and its extratropical remnants,
across the Midwest and over central and eastern Canada during the
next few days.

Some weakening is expected during the next day or so as Cristobal
continues to track inland. However, slight re-intensification as
an extratropical cyclone is expected Tuesday night and
Wednesday as Cristobal becomes involved with a mid-latitude system
over the Upper Mississippi Valley. The combination of Cristobal
and the mid-latitude cyclone will likely cause gusty winds over
portions of the Midwest and Great Lakes regions around the middle
of the week.

This is the last NHC advisory on Cristobal. Future advisories will
be issued by the Weather Prediction Center.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rain associated with Cristobal will continue to push
inland across the central Gulf coast and into the Lower Mississippi
Valley today, then up the Mid and Upper Mississippi Valley tonight
through Tuesday night. Flash flooding, and new and renewed isolated
significant river flooding is possible, especially where heavier
rainfall occurs over portions of the Gulf Coast through the
Mississippi Valley.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 32.5N 91.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 09/0000Z 34.3N 92.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 09/1200Z 38.0N 91.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 10/0000Z 42.4N 90.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 10/1200Z 47.4N 87.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 11/0000Z 51.1N 84.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 11/1200Z 52.2N 82.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 12/1200Z 51.5N 77.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2020-06-08 14:44


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 081442
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Cristobal Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
1000 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2020

...CRISTOBAL WELL INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.5N 91.8W
ABOUT 15 MI...30 KM E OF MONROE LOUISIANA
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM S OF LITTLE ROCK ARKANSAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Cristobal was located near latitude 32.5 North, longitude 91.8 West.
The depression is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24
km/h). A turn toward the north is expected tonight, followed by a
faster north-northeast motion Tuesday and Wednesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Cristobal should move through
northeastern Louisiana today, through Arkansas and eastern Missouri
tonight and Tuesday, and reach Wisconsin and the western Great
Lakes by Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast through Tuesday. However, Cristobal is
expected to strengthen some as it becomes an extratropical low
Tuesday night and Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

STORM SURGE: Water levels remain elevated along the Gulf coast and
will begin to subside after the next high tide cycle.

WIND: Gusty winds are expected to continue during the next few
hours over portions of the northern Gulf coast from southeastern
Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle. Gusty winds could also
occur Tuesday night and Wednesday over portions of the Midwest and
western Great Lakes as Cristobal becomes an extratropical low.

RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches across portions of the central and
eastern Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley, with isolated
amounts to 15 inches. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with local
amounts to 6 inches are expected across portions of the Mid to Upper
Mississippi Valley and Northern Plains near and in advance of
Cristobal. This rainfall has led to flash flooding and forecast
isolated significant river flooding across portions of the central
Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Smaller streams
across southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi have begun to
rise and are forecast to crest mid-week. New and renewed
significant river flooding is possible across the Mid and Upper
Mississippi Valley.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible today and tonight across
Mississippi, Alabama, southeastern Louisiana, eastern Arkansas,
western Tennessee, and southeastern Missouri.

SURF: Swells generated by Cristobal are still affecting portions
of the northern and eastern Gulf coast, and are likely causing
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. These
swells are expected to gradually subside throughout the day.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Future information on this system can be
found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center
beginning at 4 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT3, WMO header
WTNT33 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2020-06-08 14:44


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 081441
TCMAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020
1500 UTC MON JUN 08 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 91.8W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 250SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 91.8W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 91.6W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 34.3N 92.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 38.0N 91.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 42.4N 90.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 47.4N 87.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 51.1N 84.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 52.2N 82.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...200NE 0SE 0SW 200NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 51.5N 77.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.5N 91.8W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

2020-06-08 11:49


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 081147
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Cristobal Intermediate Advisory Number 27A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
700 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2020

...CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND...
...HEAVY RAINS FORECAST TO SPREAD NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.8N 91.6W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM SSE OF MONROE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning along the Gulf coast has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

None.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Cristobal was located near latitude 31.8 North, longitude 91.6 West.
The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17
km/h) and this motion should continue today. A turn toward the
north is expected tonight, followed by a faster north-northeast
motion Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Cristobal should move through northeastern Louisiana
today, through Arkansas and eastern Missouri tonight and Tuesday,
and reach Wisconsin and the western Great Lakes by Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is expected through Tuesday. However, Cristobal is
expected to strengthen some as it becomes an extratropical low
Tuesday night and Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

STORM SURGE: Water levels remain elevated along the Gulf coast and
will begin to subside after the next high tide cycle.

WIND: Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are expected to
continue during the next few hours over portions of the northern
Gulf coast from southeastern Louisiana to the western Florida
Panhandle. Gusty winds could also occur Tuesday night and
Wednesday over portions of the Midwest and western Great Lakes as
Cristobal becomes an extratropical low.

RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches across portions of the central to
eastern Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley, with isolated
amounts to 15 inches. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with local
amounts to 6 inches are expected across portions of the Mid to Upper
Mississippi Valley and Northern Plains near and in advance of
Cristobal. This rainfall has led to flash flooding and forecast
widespread river flooding across portions of the central Gulf Coast
into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Smaller streams across southeast
LA and southern MS have begun to rise and are forecast to crest
mid-week. New and renewed significant river flooding is possible
across the mid and upper Mississippi Valley.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible today and tonight across
Mississippi, Alabama, southeastern Louisiana, eastern Arkansas,
western Tennessee, and southeastern Missouri.

SURF: Swells generated by Cristobal are still affecting portions
of the northern and eastern Gulf coast, and are likely causing
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Blake

>

2020-06-08 08:38


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 080836
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Cristobal Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
400 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2020

Radar and surface observations indicate that Cristobal has continued
to weaken as it moves farther inland. The initial intensity is
reduced to 30 kt, with these winds occuring over portions of the
coastline and coastal waters from southeastern Louisiana to the
western Florida Panhandle. The surface observations also indicate
that the central pressure is near 994 mb. While the cyclone is
weakening, satellite and radar data show a large area of convective
bands continuing in the northeastern quadrant.

The initial motion is now 330/9. There is no change to the track
forecast philosophy from the previous advisory. Cristobal should
continue north-northwestward today as a high pressure ridge over the
Great Lakes slides eastward. The cyclone is expected to turn
northward by tonight around the east side of the ridge, and then it
should turn northeastward on Tuesday ahead of a mid-latitude trough
moving into the central United States. A faster northeastward
motion should bring the center of the cyclone across the Upper
Midwest on Tuesday and into Canada on Wednesday. After that time,
the system is expected to slow down after it completes its
extratropical transition. There is little change to the previous
forecast track except at 96 h, where the new forecast is a bit
south of the previous forecast.

The cyclone should continue to gradually weaken for the next
36-48 h as it moves farther inland. After that time, some
re-intensification is expected as Cristobal becomes involved with
mid-latitude cyclogenesis over the Upper Mississippi Valley, and
the intensity forecast will call for the system to be a 35-kt
extratropical low by 60 h. The cyclone is forecast to dissipate
inside the envelope of another extratropical low by 120 h. It should
be noted that Cristobal and the mid-latitude cyclone will combine to
possibly cause gusty winds over portions of the Midwest and Great
Lakes regions.

Although Cristobal has weakened, life-threatening storm surge is
expected to continue over a portion of the northern Gulf coast
today. Heavy rains associated with the system will also spread over
portions of the central United States over the next couple of days.


Key Messages:

1. Although the center of Cristobal has moved inland, there remains
a danger of life-threatening storm surge outside of the Hurricane
and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from the Mouth of the
Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, and a Storm Surge
Warning is in effect for those areas. Residents in these locations
should follow advice given by local emergency officials.

2. Heavy rain associated with Cristobal will continue to push inland
across the central Gulf coast and into the Lower Mississippi Valley
today, then up the Mid and Upper Mississippi Valley Monday night
through Tuesday night. The Central Gulf Coast region will be most
prone to heavy rain issues after the passage of the center of
Cristobal through Monday. Flash flooding, and new and renewed
significant river flooding is possible, especially where heavier
rainfall occurs over portions of the Gulf Coast through the
Mississippi Valley.

3. Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are expected this morning in
the coastal areas from southeastern Louisiana to the western
Florida Panhandle. In addition, the combination of Cristobal and a
mid-latitude cyclone may cause gust winds by midweek over portions
of the Midwest and Great lakes regions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 31.0N 91.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 08/1800Z 32.7N 91.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 09/0600Z 35.8N 91.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 09/1800Z 39.9N 90.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 10/0600Z 44.7N 88.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 10/1800Z 49.0N 85.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 11/0600Z 51.0N 83.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 12/0600Z 51.5N 78.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-06-08 08:37


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 080835
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Cristobal Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
400 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2020

...CRISTOBAL WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES FARTHER
INLAND...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND STORM SURGE CONTINUE ALONG THE GULF COAST
FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.0N 91.2W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM N OF BATON ROUGE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All Tropical Storm Warnings are discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Borgne

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Cristobal was located near latitude 31.0 North, longitude 91.2 West.
The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph
(17 km/h) and this motion should continue with some increase in
forward speed today. A turn toward the north is expected tonight,
followed by a north-northeast motion and a faster forward speed
Tuesday through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Cristobal should move through southwestern Mississippi and
northeastern Louisiana today, through Arkansas and eastern Missouri
tonight and Tuesday, and reach Wisconsin and the western Great
Lakes by Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected through Tuesday.
However, Cristobal is expected to strengthen some as it becomes an
extratropical low Tuesday night and Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake
Borgne...3-5 ft
Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...1-3 ft
Ocean Springs MS to Okaloosa/Walton County Florida line, including
Mobile Bay and Pensacola Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds and will likely extend along the coast well to the
east of the center. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are expected this morning
over portions of the northern Gulf coast from southeastern
Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle. Gusty winds could also
occur Tuesday night and Wednesday over portions of the Midwest and
western Great Lakes as Cristobal becomes an extratropical low.

RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches across portions of the central to
eastern Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley, with isolated
amounts to 15 inches. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with local
amounts to 6 inches are expected across portions of the Mid to Upper
Mississippi Valley and Northern Plains near and in advance of
Cristobal. This rainfall has led to flash flooding and forecast
widespread river flooding across portions of the central Gulf Coast
into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Smaller streams across southeast
LA and southern MS have begun to rise and are forecast to crest
mid-week. New and renewed significant river flooding is possible
across the mid and upper Mississippi Valley.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible today and tonight across
Mississippi, Alabama, southeastern Louisiana, eastern Arkansas,
western Tennessee, and southeastern Missouri.

SURF: Swells generated by Cristobal will affect portions of the
northern and eastern Gulf coast through today. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-06-08 08:37


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 080835
TCMAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020
0900 UTC MON JUN 08 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI
* LAKE BORGNE

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE. FOR
A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 91.2W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 91.2W AT 08/0900Z...INLAND
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 90.6W...INLAND

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 32.7N 91.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 35.8N 91.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 39.9N 90.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 44.7N 88.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 49.0N 85.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 51.0N 83.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 51.5N 78.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.0N 91.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 08/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2020-06-08 05:40


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 080538
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Intermediate Advisory Number 26A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
100 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2020

...CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND STORM SURGE CONTINUE ALONG THE GULF COAST
FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.4N 90.5W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Borgne

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Florida line
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was
located near latitude 30.4 North, longitude 90.5 West. Cristobal is
moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this
motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through today.
A turn toward the north is forecast on tonight, followed by a
northeastward motion late Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Cristobal will move farther inland across
southeastern Louisiana for the next several hours, northward across
Arkansas and Missouri this afternoon into Tuesday, and then move
over Wisconsin Tuesday night and into Canada on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual weakening will continue today, and
Cristobal is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression during the
next several hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center, primarily over water to the east and southeast of
the center. During the past few hours, several weather stations
along the Mississippi and Alabama coasts have reported sustained
winds of 35-40 mph (55-65 km/h) with higher gusts.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 994 mb (29.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake
Borgne...3-5 ft
Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...1-3 ft
Ocean Springs MS to Okaloosa/Walton County Florida line, including
Mobile Bay and Pensacola Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds and will likely extend along the coast well to the
east of the center. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical
Storm Warning area along the northern Gulf coast for the next
several hours.

RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches across portions of the central to
eastern Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley, with isolated
amounts to 15 inches. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with
local amounts to 6 inches are expected across portions of the Mid to
Upper Mississippi Valley and Northern Plains near and in advance of
Cristobal. This rainfall will likely lead to flash flooding and
widespread flooding on smaller streams across portions of the
central Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley. New and
renewed significant river flooding is possible along the central
Gulf Coast and into the Mississippi Valley.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible this morning across
southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and southern Alabama.

SURF: Swells generated by Cristobal will affect portions of the
northern and eastern Gulf coast through today. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-06-08 03:59


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 080358

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 08.06.2020

TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL ANALYSED POSITION : 29.6N 89.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL032020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 08.06.2020 29.6N 89.7W MODERATE
12UTC 08.06.2020 31.6N 91.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.06.2020 34.1N 91.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.06.2020 37.5N 91.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.06.2020 41.9N 90.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.06.2020 47.2N 86.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.06.2020 50.9N 83.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.06.2020 52.4N 77.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.06.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 080358

>

2020-06-08 02:52


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 080250
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
1000 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2020

Earlier satellite, radar, and surface observations showed that the
center of Cristobal made landfall in southeastern Louisiana around
2200 UTC. Since that time, the storm has turned north-
northwestward with the center passing very near New Orleans.
Recent Doppler radar data and surface observations suggest that the
maximum winds have begun to decrease, and the advisory intensity is
set to 40 kt. These winds are primarily occurring over the
northern Gulf of Mexico waters.

The initial motion estimate is 345/9 kt. Cristobal should continue
north-northwestward overnight as a high pressure ridge over the
Great Lakes slides eastward. The cyclone is expected to turn
northward by Monday night, and then northeastward on Tuesday ahead
of a mid-latitude trough moving into the central United States. A
faster northeastward motion should bring the center of the cyclone
across the Upper Midwest on Tuesday and into Canada on Wednesday.
After that time, the system is expected to slow down after it
completes its extratropical transition. The early portion of the
new NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly eastward based on
the more northward and eastward initial position, however the
remainder of the track forecast is very close to the previous
advisory and the various consensus aids.

Gradual weakening should occur overnight as the circulation
continues to move over land, and Cristobal is forecast to
become a tropical depression Monday morning. Additional gradual
weakening is anticipated while the cyclone moves over the central
U.S. through Tuesday, but some slight re-strengthening is possible
due to strong baroclinic forcing during the extratropical
transition around midweek. The NHC intensity forecast is primarily
a blend of the global models. As the system completes its
extratropical transition, strong gusty winds are possible mid
week behind an associated front over portions of the Midwest and
Great Lakes regions.

Although Cristobal has begun weakening, tropical-storm-force winds
and life-threatening storm surge is expected to continue over a
portion of the northern Gulf coast overnight. Heavy rains
associated with the system will also spread over portions of
the central United States over the next couple of days.


Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge outside of the
Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from the Mouth of
the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, and a Storm
Surge Warning is in effect for those areas. Residents in these
locations should follow advice given by local emergency officials.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds will continue along portions of the
northern Gulf coast from central Louisiana to the western Florida
Panhandle, including metropolitan New Orleans through the overnight
hours, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for this area.

3. Heavy rainfall across north Florida should diminish overnight.
Heavy rain will continue to push inland across the central Gulf
coast and into the Lower Mississippi Valley Sunday night. The
Central Gulf Coast region will be most prone to heavy rain issues
after the passage of the center of Cristobal through Monday. This
heavy rain will move up the Lower and Mid Mississippi Valley Monday
into Tuesday, then across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Northern
Plains Tuesday and Tuesday night. Flash flooding, and new and
renewed significant river flooding is possible, especially where
heavier rainfall occurs over portions of the Gulf Coast through the
Mississippi Valley.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 30.3N 90.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 32.0N 91.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 09/0000Z 34.6N 91.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 09/1200Z 38.1N 91.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 10/0000Z 42.9N 89.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 10/1200Z 47.5N 86.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 11/0000Z 50.8N 83.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 12/0000Z 52.8N 79.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-06-08 02:52


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 080250
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
1000 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2020

...CRISTOBAL BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND STORM SURGE CONTINUE ALONG THE GULF COAST
FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.3N 90.2W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NNW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Borgne

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Florida line
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal
was located near latitude 30.3 North, longitude 90.2 West. Cristobal
is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and
this motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through
Monday. A turn toward the north is forecast on Monday night,
followed by a northeastward motion late Tuesday and Wednesday. On
the forecast track, the center of Cristobal will move inland across
southeastern Louisiana through early Monday morning, and northward
across Arkansas and Missouri Monday afternoon into Tuesday, and
then move over Wisconsin Tuesday night and into Canada on
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual weakening will continue overnight, and
Cristobal is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression Monday
morning.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center, primarily over water to the east and southeast of
the center. An observing site on the Okaloosa Florida Fishing
Pier has recently measured 39 mph winds (63 km/h) and a gust to 49
mph (80 km/h). A NOAA automated site at Dauphin Island has
recently reported sustained winds of 41 mph (67 km/h) and a gust to
48 mph (78 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake
Borgne...3-5 ft
Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...1-3 ft
Ocean Springs MS to Okaloosa/Walton County Florida line, including
Mobile Bay and Pensacola Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds and will likely extend along the coast well to the
east of the center. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical
Storm Warning area along the northern Gulf coast through tonight.

RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches across portions of the central to
eastern Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley, with isolated
amounts to 15 inches. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with
local amounts to 6 inches are expected across portions of the Mid to
Upper Mississippi Valley and Northern Plains near and in advance of
Cristobal. This rainfall will likely lead to flash flooding and
widespread flooding on smaller streams across portions of the
central Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley. New and
renewed significant river flooding is possible along the central
Gulf Coast and into the Mississippi Valley.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight across
southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and southern Alabama.

SURF: Swells generated by Cristobal will affect portions of the
northern and eastern Gulf coast through Monday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-06-08 02:51


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 080249
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020
0300 UTC MON JUN 08 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI
* LAKE BORGNE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY FLORIDA LINE
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE. FOR
A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 90.2W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 180SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 240SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 90.2W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 89.8W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 32.0N 91.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 34.6N 91.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 38.1N 91.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 42.9N 89.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 47.5N 86.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 50.8N 83.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 52.8N 79.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.3N 90.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 08/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2020-06-07 23:54


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 072352
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Intermediate Advisory Number 25A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
700 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2020

...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND STORM SURGE TO CONTINUE FROM SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 89.8W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SSE OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Watch along the coast of Louisiana from east of
Morgan City to the mouth of the Mississippi River has been
discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Warning west of Morgan City Louisiana has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Borgne

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Florida line
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was
located near latitude 29.6 North, longitude 89.8 West. Cristobal is
moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northwest is expected later this evening and tonight, followed
by a northward motion Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Cristobal will move inland across southeastern
Louisiana through Monday morning, and northward across Arkansas and
Missouri Monday afternoon into Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening will begin overnight, and Cristobal is
forecast to weaken to a tropical depression on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center. A NOAA automated observing station on Dauphin
Island, Alabama, recently reported a sustained wind of 45 mph (72
km/h) and a gust to 49 mph (80 km/h), and a Weatherflow site on Ship
Island, Mississippi, observed a sustained wind of 37 mph (59 km/h)
and a gust to 46 mph (74 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 993 mb (29.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake
Borgne...3-5 ft
Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...1-3 ft
Ocean Springs MS to Marco Island FL including Mobile Bay, Pensacola
Bay, and Tampa Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds and will likely extend along the coast well to the
east of the center. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical
Storm Warning area along the northern Gulf coast through tonight.

RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches across portions of the central to
eastern Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley, with isolated
amounts to 15 inches. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with
local amounts to 6 inches are expected across portions of the Mid to
Upper Mississippi Valley and Northern Plains near and in advance of
Cristobal. This rainfall will likely lead to flash flooding and
widespread flooding on smaller streams across portions of the
central Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley. New and
renewed significant river flooding is possible along the central
Gulf Coast and into the Mississippi Valley.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible tonight across eastern
Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and northern
Florida.

SURF: Swells generated by Cristobal will affect portions of the
northern and eastern Gulf coast during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Latto

>

2020-06-07 22:11


Original Message :

WTNT63 KNHC 072209
TCUAT3

Tropical Storm Cristobal Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
510 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2020

...CENTER OF CRISTOBAL MAKES LANDFALL IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...

Satellite, radar, and surface data indicate that the center of
Tropical Storm Cristobal made landfall at 500 PM CDT (2200 UTC)
along the coast of southeast Louisiana between the mouth of the
Mississippi River and Grand Isle. Maximum sustained winds were
estimated near 50 mph (85 km/h) with a minimum central pressure of
992 mb (29.29 inches).

A Weatherflow site on Ship Island, Mississippi, has recently
observed a sustained wind of 48 mph (78 km/h) and a gust to 64 mph
(104 km/h). A Weatherflow site near Gulfport, Mississippi
recently reported a sustained wind of 46 mph (74 km/h) and a
gust to 60 mph (96 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 500 PM CDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 89.8W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSE OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


$$
Forecaster Brown/Latto

>

2020-06-04 11:34


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 041132
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
700 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020

...CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 91.2W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM SE OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 125 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Campeche to Coatzacoalcos Mexico

Tropical storm watches or warnings may be required for portions of
the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico later today. Interests there and
along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico should monitor the
progress of Cristobal.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was
located over southern Mexico near latitude 17.8 North, longitude
91.2 West. Cristobal is moving toward the southeast near 2 mph (4
km/h), and this motion should continue this morning. A turn toward
the east and northeast is expected later today, and a subsequent
northward motion should occur through Saturday. On the forecast
track, the center will move over the land mass of eastern Mexico
today and tonight. The center is forecast to move back over the
southern Gulf of Mexico Friday or Friday night, over the central
Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and approach the northern Gulf of Mexico
coast Sunday and Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Cristobal is expected to weaken to a depression later this
morning. Re-intensification is expected to begin on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center, primarily over water to the northwest of the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Saturday:

Mexican states of Campeche, Quintana Roo, Tabasco, and Yucatan...
Additional 6 to 12 inches, isolated storm totals of 25 inches.

Mexican states of Veracruz and Oaxaca...Additional 5 to 10 inches.

Southern Guatemala and parts of Chiapas...Additional 15 to 20
inches, isolated storm total amounts of 35 inches dating back to
Saturday, May 30th.

El Salvador...Additional 10 to 15 inches, isolated storm total
amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.

Belize and Honduras...Additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.

Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting the coast within
portions of the warning area.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-06-04 08:46


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 040844
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
400 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020

Satellite imagery and radar data from Sabancuy, Mexico indicate
that Cristobal has resumed a southeastward drift and moved farther
inland. There is no data from near the core of the storm, so the
maximum intensity is set to a possibly generous 35 kt based on
continuity from the previous advisory and earlier scatterometer
data that showed 35 kt winds over water to the northwest of the
center.

The initial motion is a drifting 125/2 kt. A slow eastward motion
is expected today. After that, southerly flow associated with a
strengthening ridge over the western Atlantic and a developing
mid-/upper-level trough over northern Gulf of Mexico should turn
Cristobal northward with some increase in forward speed. Later in
the forecast period, a north-northwestward or northward motion is
expected as Cristobal interacts with the trough, with most of the
track forecast guidance bringing the system to the northern Gulf
coast between 96-120 h. The new forecast track has no significant
changes from the previous track, and it lies near the various
consensus models.

Cristobal should weaken to a depression in the next few hours as
the center drifts farther inland. Little subsequent change in
strength is likely through 24 h due to much of the circulation
remaining over water. By 36 h, the global model guidance suggest
that winds will increase over the Gulf of Mexico well northeast of
the center, so the new intensity forecast calls for Cristobal to
regain tropical storm status at that time. From 48-120 h, Cristobal
is forecast to interact with the trough over the Gulf of Mexico,
which is likely to cause dry air entrainment and some shear. The
intensity guidance suggests these conditions will allow only
gradual intensification, so the new forecast follows the trend of
the previous forecast in showing a peak intensity of 50 kt before
landfall on the northern Gulf coast.

The global models indicate that Cristobal's wind field will expand
as the cyclone deepens over the south-central Gulf of Mexico.
Therefore, the size of the NHC wind radii have again been increased
primarily over the eastern semicircle at 36-72 hours. Indeed,
the models suggest that when the storm reaches the northern Gulf
coast the worst conditions may occur at a large distance from the
center.


Key Messages:

1. Damaging and deadly flooding was already occurring in portions
of Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce
additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week. The
heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern Mexico
and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending along
the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador. This
rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides. Refer to products from your local weather office for
more information.

2. Even though Cristobal is inland, tropical storm conditions will
continue along and near the coast of Mexico for a few more hours,
especially over western Campeche, eastern Tabasco, and northern
Chiapas states.

3. Cristobal is forecast to re-emerge over the southern Gulf of
Mexico on Friday and move northward over the central and northern
Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. There is a risk of storm surge,
heavy rainfall, and wind impacts beginning over the weekend along
portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast from Texas to the Florida Panhandle.
While it is too soon to determine the exact location, timing, and
magnitude of these impacts, interests in these areas should monitor
the progress of Cristobal and ensure they have their hurricane plan
in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 17.9N 91.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
12H 04/1800Z 18.0N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 05/0600Z 18.7N 90.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 05/1800Z 20.2N 90.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 06/0600Z 22.1N 90.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 06/1800Z 23.9N 90.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 25.8N 90.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 29.5N 91.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 09/0600Z 34.0N 92.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-06-04 08:46


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 040844
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
400 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020

...CENTER OF CRISTOBAL MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 91.3W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SE OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 125 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Campeche to Coatzacoalcos Mexico

Tropical storm watches or warnings may be required for portions of
the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico later today. Interests there and
along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico should monitor the
progress of Cristobal.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was
located over southern Mexico near latitude 17.9 North, longitude
91.3 West. Cristobal is moving toward the southeast near 2 mph (4
km/h), and this motion should continue this morning. A turn toward
the east and northeast is expected later today, and a subsequent
northward motion should occur through Saturday. On the forecast
track, the center will move over the land mass of eastern Mexico
today and tonight. The center is forecast to move back over the
southern Gulf of Mexico Friday or Friday night, and over the
central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Cristobal is expected to weaken to a depression during the next
several hours. Re-intensification is expected to begin on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center, primarily over water to the northwest of the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Saturday:

Mexican states of Campeche, Quintana Roo, Tabasco, and Yucatan...
Additional 6 to 12 inches, isolated storm totals of 25 inches.

Mexican states of Veracruz and Oaxaca...Additional 5 to 10 inches.

Southern Guatemala and parts of Chiapas...Additional 15 to 20
inches, isolated storm total amounts of 35 inches dating back to
Saturday, May 30th.

El Salvador...Additional 10 to 15 inches, isolated storm total
amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.

Belize and Honduras...Additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.

Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting the coast within
portions of the warning area.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-06-04 08:45


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 040843
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020
0900 UTC THU JUN 04 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAMPECHE TO COATZACOALCOS MEXICO

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO LATER TODAY. INTERESTS THERE AND
ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF CRISTOBAL.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 91.3W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 125 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 91.3W AT 04/0900Z...INLAND
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 91.5W...INLAND

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 18.0N 91.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 18.7N 90.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 20.2N 90.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...150NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.1N 90.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.9N 90.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 25.8N 90.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 29.5N 91.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 34.0N 92.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 91.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 04/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2020-06-04 05:57


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 040556
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
100 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020

...CENTER OF CRISTOBAL MOVING FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 91.5W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSE OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OT 135 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Campeche to Coatzacoalcos Mexico

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was
located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 91.5 West. Cristobal has
resumed a southeastward motion at about 3 mph (6 km/h), and this
motion should continue this morning. A turn toward the
north-northeast and north is expected later today, and a general
northward motion should continue through Saturday. On the forecast
track, the center will move over the land mass of eastern Mexico
through today. The center is forecast to move back over the
southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday, and over the central Gulf of
Mexico on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow weakening will occur while the cyclone moves over land,
and Cristobal will likely become a tropical depression later today.
Some re-strengthening is expected to begin on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center, primarily over water.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Saturday:

Mexican states of Campeche, Quintana Roo, Tabasco, and Yucatan...6
to 12 inches, isolated storm totals of 25 inches.

Mexican states of Veracruz and Oaxaca...5 to 10 inches.

Southern Guatemala and parts of Chiapas...Additional 15 to 20
inches, isolated storm total amounts of 35 inches dating back to
Saturday, May 30th.

El Salvador...Additional 10 to 15 inches, isolated storm total
amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.

Belize and Honduras...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.

Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting the coast within
portions of the warning area.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-06-04 02:41


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 040239
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
1000 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020

Geostationary satellite imagery and radar data from Sabancuy,
Mexico, indicate that Cristobal has moved very little since the
previous advisory, and that the convective structure of the cyclone
remains fairly well-organized with several bands wrapping around the
circulation. The center is still located just south of Ciudad del
Carmen, and the observing site at that location reported a pressure
of around 995 mb earlier this evening. The initial intensity has
been lowered to 40 kt, assuming some reduction in wind speed has
taken place. Additional gradual weakening is expected during the
next day or so while the center moves slowly inland over eastern
Mexico. Cristobal is expected to emerge over the south-central Gulf
of Mexico on Friday and some re-intensification is forecast to
occur. After that time, some additional strengthening is forecast
while Cristobal moves northward toward the northern Gulf coast, but
the overall environment is not expected to be particularly
conducive for intensification. The updated NHC intensity forecast
shows a slightly lower peak intensity than the previous advisory,
and it is in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model
and the IVCN intensity consensus aid.

Although Cristobal has been nearly stationary over the past several
hours, a slow southeastward or eastward motion should commence
overnight. Increasing southerly flow around a strengthening ridge
over the western Atlantic should cause the cyclone to begin moving
northward on Friday, and a northward or north-northwestward motion
should continue through Saturday with Cristobal approaching the
northern Gulf coast by later in the weekend. The new NHC track
forecast is again very similar to the previous NHC advisory and is
close to the various consensus models.

The global models indicate that Cristobal's wind field will expand
as the cyclone deepens over the south-central Gulf of Mexico.
Therefore, the size of the NHC wind radii have been increased
primarily over the eastern semicircle at 48 through 72 hours.


Key Messages:

1. Damaging and deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of
Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce
additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week.
The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern
Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending
along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador.
This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides.

2. Even though Cristobal has made landfall, tropical storm
conditions will continue along and near the coast of Mexico through
Thursday morning, especially over western Campeche, eastern
Tabasco, and northern Chiapas states.

3. Cristobal is forecast to re-emerge over the southern Gulf of
Mexico on Friday and move northward over the central and northern
Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. There is a risk of storm surge,
heavy rainfall, and wind impacts beginning over the weekend along
portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast from Texas to the Florida Panhandle.
While it is too soon to determine the exact location, timing, and
magnitude of these impacts, interests in these areas should monitor
the progress of Cristobal and ensure they have their hurricane plan
in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 18.3N 91.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 18.0N 91.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 05/0000Z 18.4N 90.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 05/1200Z 19.7N 90.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 06/0000Z 21.3N 90.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 06/1200Z 23.1N 90.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 24.9N 90.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 28.8N 91.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 32.5N 92.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-06-04 02:41


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 040239
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
1000 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020

...CRISTOBAL MOVING VERY LITTLE WHILE IT CONTINUES TO CAUSE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 91.8W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM S OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Campeche to Coatzacoalcos Mexico

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal
was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 91.8 West. Cristobal
has been nearly stationary this evening but a slow southeast or
east motion should resume overnight. A turn toward the
north-northeast and north is expected on Thursday, and a general
northward motion should continue through Saturday. On the forecast
track, the center will move over the land mass of eastern Mexico
through Thursday. The center is forecast to move back over the
southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday, and over the central Gulf of
Mexico on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow weakening will occur while the cyclone moves over land, and
Cristobal will likely become a tropical depression by Thursday
evening. Some re-strengthening is expected to begin on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center, primarily over water.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Saturday:

Mexican states of Campeche, Quintana Roo, Tabasco, and Yucatan...6
to 12 inches, isolated storm totals of 25 inches.

Mexican states of Veracruz and Oaxaca...5 to 10 inches.

Southern Guatemala and parts of Chiapas...Additional 15 to 20
inches, isolated storm total amounts of 35 inches dating back to
Saturday, May 30th.

El Salvador...Additional 10 to 15 inches, isolated storm total
amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.

Belize and Honduras...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.

Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting the coast within
portions of the warning area.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-06-04 02:40


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 040238
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020
0300 UTC THU JUN 04 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAMPECHE TO COATZACOALCOS MEXICO

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 91.8W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 91.8W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 91.8W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 18.0N 91.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 18.4N 90.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 19.7N 90.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.3N 90.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 23.1N 90.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...140NE 60SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 24.9N 90.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 40SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 28.8N 91.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 32.5N 92.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 91.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 04/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2020-06-03 23:42


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 032340
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
700 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020

...CRISTOBAL WEAKENING VERY SLOWLY WHILE MEANDERING OVER LAND...
...THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 91.8W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM S OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Campeche to Coatzacoalcos Mexico

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was
located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 91.8 West. Cristobal
has been nearly stationary over the past few hours but a slow
southeast or east motion should resume later tonight. A turn toward
the north-northeast and north is expected on Thursday and Friday.
On the forecast track, the center will move over the land mass of
eastern Mexico through Thursday. The center is forecast to move
back over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday, and over the
central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Slow weakening will occur while the cyclone
moves over land, and Cristobal will likely become a tropical
depression by Thursday evening. Some re-strengthening is expected
to begin on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce the following
rain accumulations through Friday night:

Mexican states of Campeche, northern Chiapas, Quintana Roo, Tabasco,
and Yucatan...10 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches.

Mexican state of southern Chiapas...15 to 20 inches, isolated 25
inches.

Mexican states of Veracruz and Oaxaca...5 to 10 inches.

Southern Guatemala...Additional 15 to 20 inches, isolated storm
total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.

El Salvador...Additional 10 to 15 inches, isolated storm total
amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.

Belize and Honduras...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.

Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting the coast within
portions of the warning area.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-06-03 20:41


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 032039
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
400 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020

Cristobal continues to move over land and is passing a short
distance south of Ciudad del Carmen, where tropical storm
force winds, at least in gusts, have been reported. The current
intensity estimate assumes only a very slow weakening rate and
maximum winds are set at 45 kt for this advisory. Since the system
has a large circulation, the weakening should continue to be at a
slow rate and the cyclone is expected to become a tropical
depression by late Thursday. Once the center re-emerges over the
Gulf of Mexico, which is forecast to happen on Friday,
re-intensification should begin. However, the model guidance
currently suggests that the atmospheric environment over the Gulf
will not be very conducive for strengthening. The official
intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, but is at the
high end of the guidance suite. As has been noted, however, there
is significant uncertainty as to how strong Cristobal will be when
it approaches the northern Gulf coast. This is due to the
limitations of predicting tropical cyclone intensity change.

The storm continues to move southeastward quite slowly, or 135/3
kt. Cristobal should move in a partial cyclonic loop, and remain
over land, while embedded within a broad gyre over Central
America and eastern Mexico. Later in the forecast period, an
increase in southerly flow is likely to cause the system to move
back over water and approach the northern Gulf coast this weekend.
The official track forecast follows the dynamical model consensus
TVCA.


Key Messages:

1. Damaging and deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of
Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce
additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week.
The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern
Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending
along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador.
This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides.

2. Even though Cristobal has made landfall, tropical storm
conditions will continue along and near the coast of Mexico through
Thursday, especially over western Campeche, eastern Tabasco, and
northern Chiapas states.

3. Cristobal is forecast to re-emerge over the southern Gulf of
Mexico Friday or Friday night and move northward over the central
and northern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. There is a risk of
storm surge, heavy rainfall, and wind impacts beginning over the
weekend along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast from Texas to the
Florida Panhandle. While it is too soon to determine the exact
location, timing, and magnitude of these impacts, interests in these
areas should monitor the progress of Cristobal and ensure they have
their hurricane plan in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 18.3N 91.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 18.0N 91.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
24H 04/1800Z 18.3N 91.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 05/0600Z 19.0N 90.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 05/1800Z 20.3N 90.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 06/0600Z 22.0N 90.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 06/1800Z 24.0N 90.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 07/1800Z 28.0N 91.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 08/1800Z 31.7N 92.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-06-03 20:40


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 032038
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
400 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020

...CRISTOBAL WEAKENING VERY SLOWLY WHILE MOVING OVER LAND...
...THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 91.8W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM S OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 135 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Campeche to Coatzacoalcos Mexico

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was
located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 91.8 West. Cristobal is
moving toward the southeast near 3 mph (6 km/h), and a turn toward
the east is expected by tonight. A turn toward the north-northeast
and north is expected on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast
track, the center will move over the land mass of eastern Mexico
through Thursday. The center is forecast to move back over the
southern Gulf of Mexico by Friday, and over the central Gulf of
Mexico on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow weakening will occur while the cyclone moves over land, and
Cristobal will likely become a tropical depression by Thursday
evening. Some re-strengthening is expected to begin on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce the following
rain accumulations through Friday night:

Mexican states of Campeche, northern Chiapas, Quintana Roo, Tabasco,
and Yucatan...10 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches.

Mexican state of southern Chiapas...15 to 20 inches, isolated 25
inches.

Mexican states of Veracruz and Oaxaca...5 to 10 inches.

Southern Guatemala...Additional 15 to 20 inches, isolated storm
total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.

El Salvador...Additional 10 to 15 inches, isolated storm total
amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.

Belize and Honduras...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.

Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting the coast within
portions of the warning area.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-06-03 20:40


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 032038
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020
2100 UTC WED JUN 03 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAMPECHE TO COATZACOALCOS MEXICO

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 91.8W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 135 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 91.8W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 91.9W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.0N 91.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 18.3N 91.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 19.0N 90.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 20.3N 90.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.0N 90.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 24.0N 90.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 28.0N 91.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 31.7N 92.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 91.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 04/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2020-06-03 17:41


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 031739
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
100 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020

...CRISTOBAL MOVING SLOWLY OVER LAND NEAR CIUDAD DEL CARMEN
MEXICO...
...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 91.9W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 150 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Campeche to Coatzacoalcos Mexico

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was
located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 91.9 West. Cristobal is
moving toward the south-southeast near 3 mph (6 km/h), and a turn
toward the east is expected later today. A turn toward the
north-northeast and north is expected on Thursday and Friday. On the
forecast track, the center will move over the land mass of eastern
Mexico through Thursday. The center is forecast to move back over
the Gulf of Mexico by Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Cristobal will likely become a tropical depression by Thursday
evening. Some re-strengthening is expected to begin on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center. A wind gust of 55 mph (89 km/h) was reported at
Ciudad del Carmen during the past few hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Friday night:

Mexican states of Campeche, northern Chiapas, Quintana Roo, Tabasco,
and Yucatan...10 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches.

Mexican state of southern Chiapas...15 to 20 inches, isolated 25
inches.

Mexican states of Veracruz and Oaxaca...5 to 10 inches.

Southern Guatemala...Additional 15 to 20 inches, isolated storm
total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.

El Salvador...Additional 10 to 15 inches, isolated storm total
amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.

Belize and Honduras...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.

Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting the coast within
portions of the warning area.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-06-03 16:01


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 031600

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 03.06.2020

TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL ANALYSED POSITION : 18.6N 92.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL032020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.06.2020 0 18.6N 92.3W 999 34
0000UTC 04.06.2020 12 18.6N 92.0W 997 32
1200UTC 04.06.2020 24 18.0N 92.3W 1001 32
0000UTC 05.06.2020 36 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 21.5N 89.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.06.2020 72 21.5N 89.3W 999 35
0000UTC 07.06.2020 84 24.6N 87.7W 996 40
1200UTC 07.06.2020 96 27.0N 87.6W 989 44
0000UTC 08.06.2020 108 27.7N 89.1W 986 44
1200UTC 08.06.2020 120 27.1N 90.8W 986 40
0000UTC 09.06.2020 132 28.0N 91.5W 985 48
1200UTC 09.06.2020 144 29.8N 92.5W 979 43


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 031600

>

2020-06-03 14:58


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 031455
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020

Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft and
imagery from the Sabancuy radar in Mexico indicate that the center
of Cristobal made landfall in the state of Campeche just to the
west of Ciudad del Carmen around 1330 UTC. Data from the aircraft
and earlier surface reports indicate that the landfall intensity
was about 50 kt. Now that the center of circulation has moved
inland, a gradual weakening trend should commence. However, the
large circulation will take some time to spin down. It is
anticipated that Cristobal will weaken to a depression by tomorrow
evening. Later in the forecast period, the system is expected to
emerge into the Gulf of Mexico so some re-strengthening is
predicted. However, the global models show increased southwesterly
shear influencing the cyclone over the northern Gulf of Mexico and
this should limit intensification. The official intensity forecast
is similar to the latest LGEM and HCCA guidance. However, there is
significant uncertainty as to how strong a cyclone we will be
dealing with near the northern Gulf coast this weekend.

The storm has been moving slowly south-southeastward, or 150/3 kt.
Over the next couple of days, Cristobal should move slowly in a
cyclonic loop while embedded within a broader gyre over Central
America and eastern Mexico. Then, the cyclone should turn
northward into a weakness in the mid-level flow over the Gulf of
Mexico, and approach the northern Gulf coast within 4 days. The
official track forecast is very close to the latest dynamical model
consensus, TVCA.


Key Messages:

1. Damaging and deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of
Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce
additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week.
The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern
Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending
along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador.
This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides.

2. Even though Cristobal has made landfall, tropical storm
conditions will continue along and near the coast of Mexico through
Thursday, especially over western Campeche, eastern Tabasco,
and northern Chiapas states.

3. Cristobal is forecast to re-emerge over the southern Gulf of
Mexico Friday or Friday night and move northward over the central
and northern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. There is a risk of
storm surge, heavy rainfall, and wind impacts beginning over the
weekend along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast from Texas to the
Florida Panhandle. While it is too soon to determine the exact
location, timing, and magnitude of these impacts, interests in these
areas should monitor the progress of Cristobal and ensure they have
their hurricane plan in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 18.6N 92.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
12H 04/0000Z 18.4N 91.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 04/1200Z 18.1N 91.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 05/0000Z 18.9N 90.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 05/1200Z 20.0N 90.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 06/0000Z 21.5N 90.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 06/1200Z 23.5N 90.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 07/1200Z 27.6N 90.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 08/1200Z 31.0N 92.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-06-03 14:57


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 031454
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020

...CRISTOBAL MOVING INLAND OVER EASTERN MEXICO...
...THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 92.0W
ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM W OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 150 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning west of Coatzacoalcos, Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Campeche to Coatzacoalcos Mexico

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal
was located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 92.0 West.
Cristobal is moving toward the south-southeast near 3 mph (6 km/h),
and a turn toward the east is expected later today. A turn toward
the north-northeast and north is expected on Thursday and Friday.
On the forecast track, the center will move over the land mass of
eastern Mexico through Thursday. The center is forecast to move
back over the Gulf of Mexico by Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Cristobal
will likely become a tropical depression by Thursday evening. Some
re-strengthening is expected to begin on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Friday night:

Mexican states of Campeche, northern Chiapas, Quintana Roo, Tabasco,
and Yucatan...10 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches.

Mexican state of southern Chiapas...15 to 20 inches, isolated 25
inches.

Mexican states of Veracruz and Oaxaca...5 to 10 inches.

Southern Guatemala...Additional 15 to 20 inches, isolated storm
total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.

El Salvador...Additional 10 to 15 inches, isolated storm total
amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.

Belize and Honduras...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.

Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting the coast within
portions of the warning area.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Berg

>

2020-06-03 14:57


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 031454
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020
1500 UTC WED JUN 03 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING WEST OF COATZACOALCOS...MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAMPECHE TO COATZACOALCOS MEXICO

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 92.0W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OR 150 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 92.0W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 92.1W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.4N 91.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 18.1N 91.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 18.9N 90.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.0N 90.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.5N 90.7W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 23.5N 90.8W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 27.6N 90.9W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 31.0N 92.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 92.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 03/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2020-06-03 13:37


Original Message :

WTNT63 KNHC 031335
TCUAT3

Tropical Storm Cristobal Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
835 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020

...CRISTOBAL MAKES LANDFALL IN THE STATE OF CAMPECHE, MEXICO...

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Tropical Storm Cristobal has made landfall near
Atasta, Mexico, just to the west of Ciudad del Carmen.

The maximum winds were estimated to be 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts.

SUMMARY OF 835 AM CDT...1335 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 92.1W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM W OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 150 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Berg

>

2020-06-03 11:59


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 031157
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
700 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020

...CRISTOBAL ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING THREAT
CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 92.1W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 140 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Campeche to Puerto de Veracruz

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was
located by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 18.8
North, longitude 92.1 West. Cristobal is moving toward the
southeast near 3 mph (6 km/h), and this general motion is expected
to continue this morning, followed by a turn toward the east this
afternoon. A motion toward the north-northeast and north is
expected on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the center
will cross the southern Bay of Campeche coast later today and move
inland over eastern Mexico tonight and Thursday. The center is
forecast to move back over the Bay of Campeche Thursday night and
Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast while the center remains
inland, but restrengthening is expected after Cristobal moves back
over water Thursday night and Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 994 mb (29.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Friday night:

Mexican states of Campeche, northern Chiapas, Quintana Roo, Tabasco,
and Yucatan...10 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches.

Mexican state of southern Chiapas...15 to 20 inches, isolated 25
inches.

Mexican states of Veracruz and Oaxaca...5 to 10 inches.

Southern Guatemala...Additional 15 to 20 inches, isolated storm
total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.

El Salvador...Additional 10 to 15 inches, isolated storm total
amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.

Belize and Honduras...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.

Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting the coast within
portions of the warning area.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-06-03 08:49


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 030847
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
400 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020

Cristobal has continued to get better organized this morning with
the development of a small CDO feature over the low-level center,
with cloud tops of -82C to -86C developing very near the center.
Radar data from Sabancuy, Mexico, also has shown an improvement in
the central convective features, along with an increase in
convective banding on the west side of the circulation, which
previously had been devoid of any significant convection. Reports
from nearby Mexican observations indicate that winds of 47-48 kt
exist west of the center, which supports an intensity of 50 kt. The
same observations support a minimum pressure of 994 mb.

The aforementioned surface observation data and radar imagery
indicate that Cristobal is now moving southeastward or 140/03 kt.
There could be some erratic motion this morning due to land
interaction with the inner-core wind field, but the general motion
should remain southeastward toward the coast of Mexico. By this
afternoon, a turn toward the east is expected, driving the cyclone
inland over southeastern Mexico where it could meander for the next
day or two. By 48 hours, the global and regional models are in good
agreement on the development of a long fetch of southerly flow on
the east side of Cristobal between the cyclone's center and a ridge
over the Bahamas and Hispaniola, which will act to lift the tropical
storm slowly northward toward the south-central Gulf of Mexico. By
72 hours and beyond, mid-latitude ridging amplifies over the
southeastern U.S. and the Bahamas, which will increase the southerly
steering flow, causing Cristobal to accelerate northward on day 4
over the central Gulf, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest
on day 5 near the south-central U.S. Gulf coast. The models are
in very good agreement on this overall developing scenario, with
only timing differences on when and how fast the cyclone will lift
out away from Mexico. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the
previous advisory track, and closely follows a blend of the
consensus models TVCN and NOAA-HCCA.

Some additional slight strengthening remains possible this morning
before Cristobal moves inland over southeastern Mexico. Weakening
is likely this afternoon and tonight while the circulation after
landfall. The intensity forecast leans heavily on just how far
inland Cristobal moves. For now, the cyclone is expected to remain
relatively close to the warm Gulf waters, which should temper the
rate of weakening typically experienced by inland tropical cyclones.
But if Cristobal moves as far inland as Guatemala like the ECMWF and
GFS models are forecasting, the cyclone would be considerably weaker
and the wind field more expansive on days 3-5. The official
intensity forecast is basically the same as the previous advisory,
and closely follows the intensity consensus models IVCN and HCCA.


Key Messages:

1. Damaging and deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of
Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce
additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week.
The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern
Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending
along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador.
This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides.

2. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the coast of
Mexico where a tropical storm warning is in effect.

3. Cristobal is forecast to begin moving northward across the Gulf
of Mexico on Friday, and there is a risk of storm surge, rainfall,
and wind impacts this weekend along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast
from Texas to the Florida Panhandle. While it is too soon to
determine the exact location, timing, and magnitude of these
impacts, interests in these areas should monitor the progress of
Cristobal and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 18.9N 92.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 18.5N 91.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 04/0600Z 18.3N 91.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 04/1800Z 18.5N 91.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 05/0600Z 19.3N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 05/1800Z 20.5N 90.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 22.2N 90.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 26.3N 90.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 29.8N 91.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-06-03 08:46


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 030844
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
400 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020

...CRISTOBAL MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF
MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING THREAT
CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 92.0W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NNW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 140 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Campeche to Puerto de Veracruz

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was
located by radar data from Mexico near latitude 18.9 North,
longitude 92.0 West. Cristobal is moving toward the southeast near
3 mph (6 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue
this morning, followed by turn toward the east this afternoon. A
motion toward the north-northeast and north is expected on Thursday
and Friday. On the forecast track, the center will cross the
southern Bay of Campeche coast later today and move inland over
eastern Mexico tonight and Thursday. The center is forecast to move
back over the Bay of Campeche Thursday night and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight increase in strength is possible until the center
crosses the coast. Gradual weakening is forecast while the center
remains inland, but restrengthening is expected after Cristobal
moves back over water Thursday night and Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 994 mb (29.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Friday night:

Mexican states of Campeche, northern Chiapas, Quintana Roo, Tabasco,
and Yucatan...10 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches.

Mexican state of southern Chiapas...15 to 20 inches, isolated 25
inches.

Mexican states of Veracruz and Oaxaca...5 to 10 inches.

Southern Guatemala...Additional 15 to 20 inches, isolated storm
total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.

El Salvador...Additional 10 to 15 inches, isolated storm total
amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.

Belize and Honduras...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.

Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting the coast within
portions of the warning area.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-06-03 08:46


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 030844
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020
0900 UTC WED JUN 03 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAMPECHE TO PUERTO DE VERACRUZ

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 92.0W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 140 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 92.0W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 92.1W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.5N 91.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.3N 91.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 18.5N 91.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 19.3N 91.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 20.5N 90.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.2N 90.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 26.3N 90.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 29.8N 91.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 92.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 03/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2020-06-03 05:49


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 030547
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
100 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020

...CRISTOBAL STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE WHILE IT CREEPS SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAIN AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 92.1W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 145 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Campeche to Puerto de Veracruz

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was
located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 92.1 West. Cristobal is
moving toward the southeast near 2 mph (4 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue this morning, followed by turn toward
the east this afternoon. A motion toward the north-northeast and
north is expected on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the
center will cross the southern Bay of Campeche coast later today.
and move inland over eastern Mexico tonight and Thursday. The center
is forecast to move back over the Bay of Campeche Thursday night and
Friday.

Nearby surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds
have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some
additional increase in strength is possible until the center crosses
the coast. Gradual weakening is forecast while the center remains
inland, but restrengthening is expected after Cristobal moves back
over water Thursday night and Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 994 mb (29.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 10 to 20 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches over
parts of the Mexican states of Tabasco and Campeche. Cristobal is
also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches
over parts of the Mexican states of Chiapas, Veracruz, Quintana Roo,
Yucatan and Oaxaca. Additional rainfall of 10 to 15 inches, with
isolated amounts of 25 inches, is expected along the Pacific coasts
of Chiapas, Guatemala, and El Salvador. Some of these Pacific
locations received 20 inches of rain over the weekend, and storm
total amounts of 35 inches are possible. Rainfall of 3 to 6 inches,
with isolated amounts of 10 inches, is expected across portions of
Honduras and Belize. Rainfall in all of these areas may produce
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting the coast within
portions of the warning area.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-06-03 04:00


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 030358

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 03.06.2020

TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL ANALYSED POSITION : 19.5N 92.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL032020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 03.06.2020 0 19.5N 92.3W 1001 33
1200UTC 03.06.2020 12 18.6N 92.6W 995 39
0000UTC 04.06.2020 24 17.8N 92.5W 995 29
1200UTC 04.06.2020 36 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 21.3N 89.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.06.2020 84 22.7N 89.8W 1000 32
0000UTC 07.06.2020 96 24.7N 88.1W 997 38
1200UTC 07.06.2020 108 27.8N 87.0W 990 43
0000UTC 08.06.2020 120 29.4N 88.3W 986 48
1200UTC 08.06.2020 132 29.5N 91.0W 985 40
0000UTC 09.06.2020 144 30.2N 91.7W 987 34


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 030358

>

2020-06-03 04:00


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 030358

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 03.06.2020

TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL ANALYSED POSITION : 19.5N 92.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL032020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 03.06.2020 19.5N 92.3W WEAK
12UTC 03.06.2020 18.6N 92.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 04.06.2020 17.8N 92.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.06.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 21.3N 89.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 06.06.2020 22.7N 89.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 07.06.2020 24.7N 88.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.06.2020 27.8N 87.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.06.2020 29.4N 88.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.06.2020 29.5N 91.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.06.2020 30.2N 91.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 030358

>

2020-06-03 02:40


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 030238
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
1000 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020

Cristobal has become a little better organized this evening. There
has there has been an increase in convective banding near and to the
east of the center in both satellite and radar imagery. An Air
Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft that investigated the storm
this evening found peak 925-mb flight-level winds of 52 kt and peak
SFMR winds of 45-47 kt. An automated Mexican weather station on an
elevated offshore platform has measured slightly stronger winds than
the SFMR, but a blend of these data support an initial intensity of
45 kt. The aircraft reported a minimum pressure of 996 mb on its
final pass through the center.

Recent aircraft and satellite fixes show that Cristobal has been
meandering for much of the day, with perhaps a south or southeast
drift evident. The storm is expected to move slowly southward or
southeastward as it remains within a larger cyclonic gyre centered
over eastern Mexico. This motion should bring the center onshore
over the southern Bay of Campeche coast later tonight or on
Wednesday. After landfall, Cristobal is forecast to continue to
move very slowly toward the east or southeast through early
Thursday. After that time, increasing southerly flow should allow
the storm to begin moving northward over the central and northern
Gulf of Mexico by the weekend. There has been a slight eastward
adjustment in the early portion of the track forecast due to a
slightly more eastward initial position, but after 36 h very little
change to the previous forecast was required. The new NHC track
forecast is again near the various consensus aids and is a blend of
the GFS and ECMWF models. Although there is less spread in the track
guidance this cycle, there is still a fair amount of uncertainty in
the track forecast at 72 h and beyond due to the expected land
interaction within the next day or so, and a potential for center
reformations as the system re-organizes in 2-3 days.

Some additional strengthening is possible overnight before
Cristobal reaches the coast of Mexico. Weakening is likely on
Wednesday and Wednesday night while the circulation encounters
land. Once the system moves over the Gulf of Mexico, environmental
conditions are expected to support re-intensification. The NHC
intensity forecast is closest to the HWRF model and is a bit less
aggressive than the statistical guidance or the HFIP-corrected
consensus model since there is uncertainly regarding structure of
the system after it interacts with land.


Key Messages:

1. Deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of Guatemala and
El Salvador, and Cristobal is expected to bring additional heavy
rainfall to portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, and El
Salvador, which could cause life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides. Refer to products from your national meteorological
service for more information.

2. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the coast of
Mexico where a tropical storm warning is in effect.

3. Cristobal is forecast to begin moving northward across the Gulf
of Mexico on Friday, and there is a risk of storm surge, rainfall,
and wind impacts this weekend along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast
from Texas to the Florida Panhandle. While it is too soon to
determine the exact location, timing, and magnitude of these
impacts, interests in these areas should monitor the progress of
Cristobal and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 19.1N 92.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 18.7N 92.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 18.4N 91.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 04/1200Z 18.3N 91.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 05/0000Z 18.8N 91.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 05/1200Z 19.6N 91.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 06/0000Z 21.2N 91.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 07/0000Z 25.0N 91.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 08/0000Z 29.0N 91.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-06-03 02:40


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 030238
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
1000 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020

...CRISTOBAL A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT INCHES TOWARD THE COAST OF
MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAIN AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 92.3W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM NW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Campeche to Puerto de Veracruz

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal
was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 92.3 West. Cristobal
is moving toward the south near 1 mph (2 km/h), and a turn
toward the southeast and east is expected tonight and Wednesday,
followed by a turn toward the north-northeast and north on Thursday
and Friday. On the forecast track, the center will cross the
southern Bay of Campeche coast later tonight or on Wednesday and
move inland over eastern Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday. The
center is forecast to move back over the Bay of Campeche Thursday
night and Friday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph
(85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional increase in strength
is possible until the center crosses the coast. Gradual weakening
is forecast while the center remains inland, but restrengthening is
expected after Cristobal moves back over water Thursday night and
Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center. A wind gust of 39 mph (63 km/h) was recently
reported at an automated observing site in Ciudad del Carmen.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance
aircraft is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 10 to 20 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches over
parts of the Mexican states of Tabasco and Campeche. Cristobal is
also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches
over parts of the Mexican states of Chiapas, Veracruz, Quintana Roo,
Yucatan and Oaxaca. Additional rainfall of 10 to 15 inches, with
isolated amounts of 25 inches is expected along the Pacific coasts
of Chiapas, Guatemala, and El Salvador. Some of these Pacific
locations received 20 inches of rain over the weekend, and storm
total amounts of 35 inches are possible. Rainfall of 3 to 6 inches,
with isolated amounts of 10 inches, is expected across portions of
Honduras and Belize. Rainfall in all of these areas may produce
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting the coast within
portions of the warning area.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-06-03 02:40


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 030238
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020
0300 UTC WED JUN 03 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAMPECHE TO PUERTO DE VERACRUZ

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 92.3W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 180 DEGREES AT 1 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 92.3W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 92.3W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.7N 92.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.4N 91.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 18.3N 91.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 18.8N 91.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 19.6N 91.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.2N 91.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 25.0N 91.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 29.0N 91.7W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 92.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 03/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2020-06-02 23:59


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 022357
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
700 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS CRISTOBAL A LITTLE STRONGER...
...HEAVY RAIN AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 92.3W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM NW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 170 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Campeche to Puerto de Veracruz

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was
located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 92.3 West. Cristobal is
meandering generally southward near 3 mph (6 km/h), and a turn
toward the southeast and east is expected tonight and Wednesday,
followed by a turn toward the north-northeast and north on Thursday
night and Friday. On the forecast track, the center will cross the
southern Bay of Campeche coast on Wednesday and move inland over
eastern Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday, and move back over the
Bay of Campeche Thursday night and Friday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance
plane and surface observations indicate that the maximum sustained
winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some additional increase in strength is possible until the center
crosses the coast. Gradual weakening is forecast while the center
remains inland, but restrengthening is expected after Cristobal
moves back over water Thursday night and Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 85 miles (140 km)
from the center. An automated weather station on a Mexican offshore
platform recently measured a sustained wind of 48 mph with a gust to
62 mph.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 10 to 20 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches over
parts of the Mexican states of Tabasco, Veracruz, and Campeche.
Cristobal is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10
to 15 inches over northern Chiapas, Quintana Roo and Yucatan.
Additional rainfall of 10 to 15 inches, with isolated amounts of 25
inches is expected along the Pacific coasts of Chiapas, Guatemala,
and El Salvador. Some of these Pacific locations received 20
inches of rain over the weekend, and storm total amounts of 35
inches are possible. Rainfall in all of these areas may produce
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting the coast within
portions of the warning area.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Zelinsky

>

2020-06-02 20:41


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 022039
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
400 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020

Observations from the Hurricane Hunters around midday indicated
winds to tropical storm force over the southwestern quadrant, so the
cyclone was named. Since that time, scatterometer data suggested
that the wind field has become a little more symmetrical. The
current intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory, which is a
little above the subjective Dvorak estimates. Some strengthening
could occur overnight since the cyclone is in a conducive
atmospheric and oceanic environment. However, it now seems likely
that the system will make landfall over eastern Mexico on Wednesday
which should cause weakening. Assuming that the center emerges over
the Gulf of Mexico later in the week, some re-intensification is
forecast. However, stronger shear over the northern Gulf should
limit the increase in strength. The official intensity forecast is
close to the latest LGEM guidance.

Satellite and radar imagery from Mexico indicate that the cyclone
is moving slowly southward, or around 170/3 kt. The system appears
to be rotating within a larger cyclonic gyre centered over eastern
Mexico. The global models show that Cristobal will be trapped
between two high pressure areas and have little overall movement for
the next few days. However, the slow, cyclonically looping
movement of the cyclone should take the center over eastern Mexico
on Wednesday and Thursday. Later in the week, increasing southerly
flow should steer the system northward over the Gulf of Mexico and
near the northern Gulf coast by the weekend. The official track
forecast lies near the latest dynamical model consensus, and is
roughly in the middle of the track guidance suite. Given the spread
in this guidance, there is a significant amount of uncertainty in
the NHC forecast at days 4-5.

Key Messages:

1. Deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of Guatemala and
El Salvador, and Cristobal is expected to bring additional heavy
rainfall to portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, and El
Salvador, which could cause life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides. Refer to products from your national meteorological
service for more information.

2. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the coast of
Mexico where a tropical storm warning is in effect.

3. Cristobal is forecast to begin moving northward across the Gulf
of Mexico on Friday, and there is a risk of storm surge, rainfall,
and wind impacts this weekend along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast
from Texas to the Florida Panhandle. While it is too soon to
determine the exact location, timing, and magnitude of these
impacts, interests in these areas should monitor the progress of
Cristobal and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 19.1N 92.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 18.8N 92.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 18.4N 92.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 04/0600Z 18.2N 91.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 04/1800Z 18.5N 91.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 05/0600Z 19.1N 91.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 05/1800Z 20.4N 91.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 06/1800Z 23.7N 91.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 07/1800Z 28.0N 91.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-06-02 20:41


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 022039
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
400 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020

...CRISTOBAL MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...
...HEAVY RAIN AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 92.5W
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM WSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 170 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Campeche to Puerto de Veracruz

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was
located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 92.5 West. Cristobal is
moving toward the south near 3 mph (6 km/h), and a turn toward the
southeast and east is expected tonight and Wednesday, followed by a
turn toward the north-northeast and north on Thursday night and
Friday. On the forecast track, the center will cross the southern
Bay of Campeche coast on Wednesday and move inland over eastern
Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday, and move back over the Bay of
Campeche Thursday night and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some increase in strength is possible until the center crosses the
coast. Gradual weakening is forecast while the center remains
inland, but restrengthening is expected after Cristobal moves back
over water Thursday night and Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 85 miles (140 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 10 to 20 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches over
parts of the Mexican states of Tabasco, Veracruz, and Campeche.
Cristobal is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10
to 15 inches over northern Chiapas, Quintana Roo and Yucatan.
Additional rainfall of 10 to 15 inches, with isolated amounts of 25
inches is expected along the Pacific coasts of Chiapas, Guatemala,
and El Salvador. Some of these Pacific locations received 20
inches of rain over the weekend, and storm total amounts of 35
inches are possible. Rainfall in all of these areas may produce
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting the coast within
portions of the warning area.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-06-02 20:40


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 022038
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020
2100 UTC TUE JUN 02 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAMPECHE TO PUERTO DE VERACRUZ

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 92.5W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 170 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 92.5W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 92.7W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.8N 92.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.4N 92.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.2N 91.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 18.5N 91.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 19.1N 91.4W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 20.4N 91.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 23.7N 91.2W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 28.0N 91.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 92.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 03/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2020-06-02 17:51


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 021749 CCA
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
100 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020

Corrected header to reflect Tropical Storm

...CRISTOBAL MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...
...THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 92.8W
ABOUT 155 MI...255 KM WSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ENE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 220 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Campeche to Puerto de Veracruz

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next within 24 to 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was
located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 92.8 West. Cristobal is
moving toward the southwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). The storm is
forecast to move slowly southwestward or southward through tonight,
and meander over the southern Bay of Campeche through late
Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Cristobal is
forecast to be near the coast of the southern Bay of Campeche
tonight through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next day or so.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at
https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 10 to 20 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches over
parts of the Mexican states of Tabasco, Veracruz, and Campeche. The
depression is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 15 inches over northern Chiapas and other Mexican states,
Quintana Roo and Yucatan. Additional rainfall of 10 to 15 inches,
with isolated amounts of 25 inches is expected along the Pacific
coasts of Chiapas, Guatemala, and El Salvador. Some of these Pacific
locations received 20 inches of rain over the weekend, and storm
total amounts of 35 inches are possible. Rainfall in all of these
areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting the coast within
portions of the warning area.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-06-02 17:48


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 021746
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Cristobal Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
100 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020

...CRISTOBAL MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...
...THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 92.8W
ABOUT 155 MI...255 KM WSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ENE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 220 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Campeche to Puerto de Veracruz

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next within 24 to 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was
located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 92.8 West. Cristobal is
moving toward the southwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). The storm is
forecast to move slowly southwestward or southward through tonight,
and meander over the southern Bay of Campeche through late
Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Cristobal is
forecast to be near the coast of the southern Bay of Campeche
tonight through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next day or so.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at
https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 10 to 20 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches over
parts of the Mexican states of Tabasco, Veracruz, and Campeche. The
depression is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 15 inches over northern Chiapas and other Mexican states,
Quintana Roo and Yucatan. Additional rainfall of 10 to 15 inches,
with isolated amounts of 25 inches is expected along the Pacific
coasts of Chiapas, Guatemala, and El Salvador. Some of these Pacific
locations received 20 inches of rain over the weekend, and storm
total amounts of 35 inches are possible. Rainfall in all of these
areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting the coast within
portions of the warning area.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-06-02 16:29


Original Message :

WTNT63 KNHC 021626 CCB
TCUAT3

Tropical Storm Cristobal Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
1115 AM CDT Jun 02 2020

Corrected storm ID in header

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

Observations from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that Tropical Depression Three has strengthened
into Tropical Storm Cristobal. The maximum winds are estimated to
be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.

SUMMARY OF 1115 AM CDT...1615 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 92.7W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM WSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-06-02 15:06


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 021504
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020

An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently
investigating the depression and has found that the system is very
close to tropical storm strength. Based on flight-level and
SFMR-observed surface winds from the plane, the intensity is held at
30 kt for now. Since the cyclone is over very warm waters with
fairly low vertical shear, intensification to a tropical storm
should occur today. The official intensity forecast is close to the
model consensus. The intensity forecast later in the period is
dependent on how much shear the system will encounter over the
northern Gulf of Mexico and this is somewhat uncertain. For now,
the intensity forecast will remain conservative.

The initial motion estimate is slowly westward, or 270/3 kt. The
cyclone is expected to remain in weak steering currents over the
Bay of Campeche for the next couple of days, with the system moving
slowly within a broader gyre over eastern Mexico. Global models
show the cyclone being trapped between two mid-level anticyclones
until later in the week, when some increase in southerly flow should
begin to carry the system toward the northern Gulf of Mexico
coastline. The official track forecast closely follows the
dynamical model consensus.

At this time, both the track and intensity forecasts are of low
confidence. However, for the next couple of days, the main threat
from this slow-moving cyclone is from widespread heavy rains over
portions of southern Mexico and Central America.


Key Messages:

1. Deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of Guatemala and
El Salvador, and the depression is expected to bring
additional heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala,
Honduras, and El Salvador, which could cause life-threatening flash
flooding and mudslides. Refer to products from your local weather
office for more information.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of Mexico
where a tropical storm warning is in effect.

3. The system is forecast to begin moving northward across the Gulf
of Mexico by this weekend. However, it is too soon to specify the
location and timing of any potential impacts along the U.S. Gulf
Coast. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this
system through the week and ensure they have their hurricane plan in
place as we begin the season.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 19.5N 92.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 19.5N 92.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 19.0N 92.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 18.8N 92.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 18.8N 92.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 05/0000Z 18.9N 91.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 19.8N 91.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 22.0N 91.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 26.0N 91.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-06-02 15:02


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 021500
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Three Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020

...SLOW-MOVING DEPRESSION CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...

...LIFE-THREATENING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING CONTINUES OVER
PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 92.6W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Campeche to Puerto de Veracruz

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next within 24 to 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three
was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 92.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). The
depression is forecast to move slowly southwestward or southward
this afternoon and tonight, and meander over the southern Bay of
Campeche through late Wednesday. On the forecast track, the
center of the cyclone is forecast to be near the coast of the
southern Bay of Campeche tonight through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
depression is likely to become a tropical storm today.

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter plane is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Three can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at
https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Three is expected to produce total
rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches with isolated maximum amounts
of 25 inches over parts of the Mexican states of Tabasco, Veracruz,
and Campeche. The depression is also expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 10 to 15 inches over northern Chiapas and other
Mexican states, Quintana Roo and Yucatan. Additional rainfall of 10
to 15 inches, with isolated amounts of 25 inches is expected along
the Pacific coasts of Chiapas, Guatemala, and El Salvador. Some of
these Pacific locations received 20 inches of rain over the weekend,
and storm total amounts of 35 inches are possible. Rainfall in all
of these areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-06-02 15:02


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 021500
TCMAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020
1500 UTC TUE JUN 02 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAMPECHE TO PUERTO DE VERACRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 92.6W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 92.6W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 92.5W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.5N 92.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.0N 92.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.8N 92.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 18.8N 92.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 18.9N 91.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 19.8N 91.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 22.0N 91.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 26.0N 91.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 92.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 02/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2020-06-02 11:46


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 021144
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Three Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
700 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020

...DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...
...LIFE-THREATENING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING TO CONTINUE OVER
PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 92.4W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...5 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Campeche to Puerto de Veracruz

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next within 24 to 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three
was located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 92.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 3 mph (5 km/h). The
depression is forecast to move slowly west-southwestward or
southward this afternoon and tonight, and meander over the southern
Bay of Campeche through late Wednesday. On the forecast track, the
center of the cyclone is forecast to be near the coast of the
southern Bay of Campeche tonight through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow strengthening is expected during the next couple of
days, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm
later today. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled
to investigate the system later this morning.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Three can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at
https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Three is expected to produce total
rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches with isolated maximum amounts
of 25 inches over parts of the Mexican states of Tabasco, Veracruz,
and Campeche. The depression is also expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 10 to 15 inches over northern Chiapas and other
Mexican states, Quintana Roo and Yucatan. Additional rainfall of 10
to 15 inches, with isolated amounts of 25 inches is expected along
the Pacific coasts of Chiapas, Guatemala, and El Salvador. Some of
these Pacific locations received 20 inches of rain over the weekend,
and storm total amounts of 35 inches are possible. Rainfall in all
of these areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-06-02 08:52


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 020849
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
400 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020

Satellite data, Mexican radar data from Sabancuy, and nearby surface
observations indicate that the depression has become a little better
organized and has strengthened slightly since the previous advisory.
Radar data indicate a mass of convection has developed north of and
over the low-level center, and a broken curved band has also formed
in the eastern semicircle. The initial intensity has been increased
to 30 kt based on a 0201 UTC ASCAT-A overpass that showed a couple
of 27-kt vectors located in the northeastern quadrant outside of the
most active convection. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the depression later this
morning.

The initial motion is westward or 270/02 kt. The latest 00Z model
guidance continues to show the depression remaining embedded within
the larger Central American gyre for the next few days, with the
gyre gradually contracting around the depression, with the two
entities merging into one system by 72 hours. Similar to last
night, tonight's model runs have again abandoned the development of
a secondary low east of the depression and moving it northward
toward the U. S Gulf coast. This may be due in part to the lack of
Mexican and Central American upper-air data at 0000 UTC, except for
the Belize sounding. But the global and regional models are in
overall in good agreement on the cyclone remaining trapped in a
break in the subtropical ridge to the east and west of the
depression. By 72-96 hours, a weak shortwave trough is forecast to
drop southward out of the southern plains and into into the ridge
weakness and act as a catalyst to nudge the depression slowly
northward on days 4 and 5. Until that time, the cyclone is
expected to meander over the the Bay of Campeche for the next 2-3
days, possibly making landfall along the coast of extreme
southeastern Mexico and the west coast of Yucatan. The new NHC
forecast track is similar to the previous advisory track, and
brings the center close to the coast of Mexico on days 2 and 3. It
should be noted, though, that in 5 days there could be a cyclone
near the forecast point that is not actually TD-3 due to land
interaction and the possible formation of a secondary cyclone.

Although the vertical wind shear is forecast to remain low while the
cyclone remains trapped in the Bay of Campeche during the next few
days, only slow strengthening is expected due to possible land
interaction and intrusions of dry air caused by southwesterly
downslope flow coming off of the mountains in the state of Chiapas,
which already appears to be underway based on satellite and radar
imagery. After the cyclone starts moving northward, increasing
southerly shear is expected to inhibit any significant or rapid
strengthening. An alternative intensity forecast scenario is that
the cyclone moves far enough inland over Mexico to dissipate
completely in less than 5 days as forecast by the GFS and HWRF
models.

Given the complexity of the situation, both the track and intensity
forecasts are currently low confidence. However, either of the
current scenarios will result in widespread heavy rains over
portions of southern Mexico and Central America.


Key Messages:

1. Deadly flooding has already been occurring in portions of
Guatemala and El Salvador. The depression is expected to bring
heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras
and El Salvador, which could cause life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides. Refer to products from your local weather office for
more information.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of Mexico
where a tropical storm warning is in effect.

3. The system is forecast to begin moving northward across the Gulf
of Mexico later this week. However, it is too soon to specify the
location and timing of any potential impacts along the U.S. Gulf
Coast. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this
system through the week and ensure they have their hurricane plan in
place as we begin the season.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 19.6N 92.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 19.5N 92.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 19.1N 92.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 18.8N 92.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 18.7N 92.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 04/1800Z 19.0N 92.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 19.3N 92.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 20.7N 91.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 23.5N 91.2W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-06-02 08:50


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 020848
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Three Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
400 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020

...DEPRESSION DRIFTING WESTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...
...LIFE-THREATENING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING TO CONTINUE OVER
PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 92.1W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM ENE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Campeche to Puerto de Veracruz

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next within 24 to 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three
was located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 92.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h). The
depression is forecast to move slowly west-southwestward or
southward this afternoon and tonight, and meander over the southern
Bay of Campeche through late Wednesday. On the forecast track, the
center of the cyclone is forecast to be near the coast of the
southern Bay of Campeche tonight through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and
the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches)
based on nearby surface observations.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Three can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at
https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Three is expected to produce total
rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches with isolated maximum amounts
of 25 inches over parts of the Mexican states of Tabasco, Veracruz,
and Campeche. The depression is also expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 10 to 15 inches over northern Chiapas and other
Mexican states, Quintana Roo and Yucatan. Additional rainfall of 10
to 15 inches, with isolated amounts of 25 inches is expected along
the Pacific coasts of Chiapas, Guatemala, and El Salvador. Some of
these Pacific locations received 20 inches of rain over the weekend,
and storm total amounts of 35 inches are possible. Rainfall in all
of these areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-06-02 08:50


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 020847
TCMAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020
0900 UTC TUE JUN 02 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAMPECHE TO PUERTO DE VERACRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE
NEXT WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 92.1W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 92.1W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 92.0W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 19.5N 92.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.1N 92.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.8N 92.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.7N 92.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.0N 92.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 19.3N 92.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 20.7N 91.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 23.5N 91.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 92.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 02/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2020-06-02 05:50


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 020547
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Three Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
100 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020

...DEPRESSION GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER BAY OF CAMPECHE...
...HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL
AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 92.0W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM ENE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Campeche to Puerto de Veracruz

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three
was located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 92.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h). This
heading at a slower forward speed is expected to continue this
morning. The depression is forecast to move west-southwestward or
southward at a even slower forward speed this afternoon and tonight,
and meander over the southern Bay of Campeche through late
Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone is
forecast to be near the coast of the southern Bay of Campeche
Tuesday night through Thursday.

Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained
winds have increased near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected during the next couple of days and
the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches)
based on nearby surface observations.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Three can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at
https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Three is expected to produce rain
accumulations of 10 to 15 inches over parts of the Mexican states
of Tabasco and Veracruz, portions of Guatemala and the Yucatan
Peninsula. This system is also expected to produce rain
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches over parts of El Salvador and
Honduras. Isolated maximum rainfall amounts of 20 inches are
possible in the Mexican states of Tabasco, Veracruz, Chiapas and
portions of Guatemala. This rainfall may produce life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area Tuesday night.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-06-02 04:00


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 020359

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 02.06.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03L ANALYSED POSITION : 18.9N 91.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL032020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 02.06.2020 0 18.9N 91.9W 1006 24
1200UTC 02.06.2020 12 19.9N 92.8W 1003 30
0000UTC 03.06.2020 24 19.4N 92.8W 999 36
1200UTC 03.06.2020 36 18.7N 92.6W 992 44
0000UTC 04.06.2020 48 18.4N 92.7W 993 38
1200UTC 04.06.2020 60 18.1N 92.0W 999 31
0000UTC 05.06.2020 72 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 21.9N 89.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.06.2020 108 23.6N 88.4W 998 37
0000UTC 07.06.2020 120 26.9N 88.2W 993 39
1200UTC 07.06.2020 132 29.5N 88.6W 988 40
0000UTC 08.06.2020 144 31.2N 91.1W 989 24

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 9.7N 114.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.06.2020 132 9.7N 114.1W 1008 25
0000UTC 08.06.2020 144 10.4N 114.1W 1006 33


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 020359

>

2020-06-02 04:00


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 020359

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 02.06.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03L ANALYSED POSITION : 18.9N 91.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL032020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 02.06.2020 18.9N 91.9W WEAK
12UTC 02.06.2020 19.9N 92.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.06.2020 19.4N 92.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.06.2020 18.7N 92.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 04.06.2020 18.4N 92.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.06.2020 18.1N 92.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 05.06.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 21.9N 89.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 06.06.2020 23.6N 88.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 07.06.2020 26.9N 88.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.06.2020 29.5N 88.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.06.2020 31.2N 91.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 9.7N 114.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 07.06.2020 9.7N 114.1W WEAK
00UTC 08.06.2020 10.4N 114.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 020359

>

2020-06-02 02:37


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 020234
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
1000 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2020

Satellite imagery, along with radar and surface data from Mexico,
indicate that the depression has changed little in organization or
strength since the previous advisory. There are a couple of small
clusters of convection near the center, while the more concentrated
convection is occurring in ragged bands well removed from the
center. The initial intensity remains 25 kt based on the surface
data and continuity from the previous advisory.

The initial motion is now westward or 270/6. The evolution of this
system during the next several days remains quite uncertain. The
Canadian and UKMET models forecast the cyclone to make a slow
counter-clockwise loop inside a larger gyre over Central America
during the next 2-3 days, with the center moving near the coast of
the Bay of Campeche. This would be followed by a more northward
motion with some increase in forward speed as a mid-/upper-level
trough develops over the northern Gulf of Mexico. On the other
hand, the GFS and ECMWF show the depression turning southward and
making landfall over the coast of Mexico in the next 24-36 h,
followed by dissipation. These two models subsequently develop a
second low pressure area northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula at
around 120 h due to the interaction of the aforementioned gyre and
trough. The new forecast track follows the previous forecast in
showing TD-3 as being the system that moves northward across the
Gulf. However, the new track brings the center closer to the coast
of Mexico and is slower to move it northward than in the previous
advisory. It should be noted, though, that in 5 days there could be
a cyclone near the forecast point that is not actually TD-3.

In the current track forecast scenario, slow strengthening should
occur during the next 24-48 h while the cyclone moves over the warm
water of the Bay of Campeche in an environment of light to
moderate shear. After time, proximity to the Mexican coast should
limit strengthening, and it is possible that the current forecast
intensities could be generous. The more northward motion near the
end of the forecast period is likely to be accompanied by an
increase in southerly shear, so only modest intensification is
forecast during that time. Overall, the new intensity forecast is
similar to the previous forecast. An alternative intensity
forecast scenario is that the cyclone moves far enough inland over
Mexico to dissipate completely in less than 5 days as forecast by
the GFS and ECMWF.

Given the complexity of the situation, both the track and
intensity forecasts are currently low confidence. However, either
of the current scenarios will result in widespread heavy rains over
portions of southern Mexico and Central America.


Key Messages:

1. The depression is expected to bring heavy rainfall to portions of
southern Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador, which could
cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Refer to
products from your local weather office for more information.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of Mexico
where a tropical storm warning is in effect.

3. The system is forecast to begin moving northward across the Gulf
of Mexico later this week. However, it is too soon to specify the
location and timing of any potential impacts along the U.S. Gulf
Coast. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this
system through the week and ensure they have their hurricane plan in
place as we begin the season.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 19.6N 91.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 19.6N 92.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 19.2N 92.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 18.8N 93.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 18.6N 93.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 04/1200Z 18.5N 93.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 18.5N 93.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 06/0000Z 19.5N 92.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 07/0000Z 22.0N 91.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-06-02 02:37


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 020234
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Three Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
1000 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2020

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF
MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 91.9W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM WSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM ENE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Campeche to Puerto de Veracruz

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three
was located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 91.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h).
This heading at a slower forward speed is expected tonight. The
depression is forecast to turn west-southwestward or southward at a
even slower forward speed on Tuesday, and meander over the southern
Bay of Campeche through late Wednesday. On the forecast track, the
center of the cyclone is forecast to be near the coast of the
southern Bay of Campeche Tuesday night through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected during the next couple of days
and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm
tonight or Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Three can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at
https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Three is expected to produce rain
accumulations of 10 to 15 inches over parts of the Mexican states
of Tabasco and Veracruz, portions of Guatemala and the Yucatan
Peninsula. This system is also expected to produce rain
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches over parts of El Salvador and
Honduras. Isolated maximum rainfall amounts of 20 inches are
possible in the Mexican states of Tabasco, Veracruz, Chiapas and
portions of Guatemala. This rainfall may produce life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area Tuesday night.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-06-02 02:37


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 020234
TCMAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020
0300 UTC TUE JUN 02 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAMPECHE TO PUERTO DE VERACRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 91.9W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 91.9W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 91.7W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 19.6N 92.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.2N 92.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.8N 93.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.6N 93.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 18.5N 93.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 18.5N 93.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 19.5N 92.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 22.0N 91.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 91.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 02/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2020-06-01 23:38


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 012335
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Three Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
700 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2020

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO
PORTIONS OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 91.6W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM WSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM ENE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Campeche to Puerto de Veracruz

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three
was located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 91.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h).
This motion at a slower forward speed is expected tonight. The
depression is forecast to turn west-southwestward or southward at a
slower forward speed on Tuesday, and meander over the southern Bay
of Campeche through late Wednesday. On the forecast track, the
center of the cyclone is forecast to be near the coast of the
southern Bay of Campeche Tuesday night through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next couple of
days and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm
tonight or Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Three can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at
https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Three is expected to produce rain
accumulations of 10 to 15 inches over parts of the Mexican states
of Tabasco and Veracruz and adjacent portions of Guatemala. This
system is also expected to produce rain accumulations of 5 to 10
inches over parts of El Salvador and Honduras. Isolated maximum
rainfall amounts of 20 inches are possible in the Mexican states of
Tabasco, Veracruz, Oaxaca and portions of Guatemala. This rainfall
may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area Tuesday night.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-06-01 21:03


Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 012100
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
400 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2020

Recent satellite data and surface observations from Mexico show
that the circulation associated with the area of disturbed weather
over the Yucatan peninsula has become better defined during the
past several hours, and that the center has moved over the eastern
portion of the Bay of Campeche. Although the deep convection has
waned somewhat, there is evidence of banding in both visible
satellite imagery and recent radar data from Sabancuy, Mexico.
Based on these data, advisories are being issued on a tropical
depression. The initial intensity is set at 25 kt, which is in
agreement with earlier ASCAT data.

The depression will be moving over the warm waters over the Bay of
Campeche and upper-level winds are forecast to be generally
conducive for strengthening during the next couple of days. The NHC
forecast is in line with much of the intensity guidance and calls
for the system to become a tropical storm in 12 to 24 hours, with
some additional strengthening predicted through 48 hours while the
system remains over the southern Bay of Campeche. After that time,
the system's intensity will depend on how much it interacts with
land. Although the latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF models
take the cyclone inland over southern Mexico, the NHC forecast
keeps it just offshore and shows the cyclone maintaining tropical
storm strength. Later in the period, the guidance suggests that
the system could strengthen over the south-central Gulf of Mexico,
but the latter portion of the intensity forecast is of low
confidence.

The depression is moving west-northwestward or 290/6 kt. The system
has been moving cyclonically around a larger gyre over Central
America during the past couple of days, and while it remains
embedded within the gyre it is forecast to turn west-southwestward,
and then southward at a slower forward speed over the next couple of
days. On this track, the cyclone is expected to move near the
southern Bay of Campeche coast during the next day or two, and
confidence it that portion of the track forecast is high. After
that time, two distinct scenarios emerges. The first is that the
cyclone continues moving southward and weakens or dissipates over
the rugged terrain over southern Mexico. The latest runs of the
ECMWF and GFS favor that scenario. In this scenario, both models
show a new system developing near the south-central Gulf of Mexico
from another vorticity center that rotates around the larger gyre.
The second scenario, favored by the UKMET and some EC ensemble
members, is for the depression to eject north-northeast moving
into the central Gulf of Mexico by day 5. The NHC forecast favors
the latter, but it is certainly possible that this tropical cyclone
will move inland and dissipates and a new cyclone formation occurs
later this week. The latter portion of both the track and intensity
forecast are of quite low confidence.

Key Messages:

1. The depression is expected to bring heavy rainfall to portions of
southern Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador, which could
cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Refer to
products from your local weather office for more information.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of Mexico
where a tropical storm warning is in effect.

3. The system is forecast to begin moving northward across the Gulf
of Mexico later this week. However, it is too soon to specify the
location and timing of any potential impacts along the U.S. Gulf
Coast. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this
system through the week and ensure they have their hurricane plan in
place as we begin the season.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 19.6N 91.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 19.8N 92.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 19.5N 92.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 19.2N 93.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 18.8N 93.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 04/0600Z 18.8N 93.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 18.8N 93.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 19.0N 92.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 23.0N 91.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-06-01 20:53


Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 012050
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Three Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
400 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2020

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 91.2W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM ENE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from
Campeche westward to Puerto de Veracruz

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Campeche to Puerto de Veracruz

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three
was located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 91.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h).
This motion at a slower forward speed is expected tonight. The
depression is forecast to turn west-southwestward or southward at a
slower forward speed on Tuesday, and meander over the southern Bay
of Campeche through late Wednesday. On the forecast track, the
center of the cyclone is forecast to be near the coast of the
southern Bay of Campeche Tuesday night through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected during the next couple of days and
the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or
Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Three can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Three is expected to produce rain
accumulations of 10 to 15 inches over parts of the Mexican states
of Tabasco and Veracruz and adjacent portions of Guatemala. This
system is also expected to produce rain accumulations of 5 to 10
inches over parts of El Salvador and Honduras. Isolated maximum
rainfall amounts of 20 inches are possible in the Mexican states of
Tabasco, Veracruz, Oaxaca and portions of Guatemala. This rainfall
may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area Tuesday night.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-06-01 20:52


Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 012050
TCMAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020
2100 UTC MON JUN 01 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
CAMPECHE WESTWARD TO PUERTO DE VERACRUZ

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAMPECHE TO PUERTO DE VERACRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 91.2W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 91.2W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 90.9W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 19.8N 92.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 19.5N 92.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.2N 93.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.8N 93.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.8N 93.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 18.8N 93.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 19.0N 92.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 23.0N 91.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 91.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 02/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>