Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ARTHUR-20
in United States, Bermuda

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

2020-05-20 04:00


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 200359

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 20.05.2020

TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR ANALYSED POSITION : 36.1N 66.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL012020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 20.05.2020 0 36.1N 66.8W 1002 46
1200UTC 20.05.2020 12 34.9N 65.8W 1005 45
0000UTC 21.05.2020 24 32.8N 65.4W 1010 37
1200UTC 21.05.2020 36 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 9.8N 131.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.05.2020 132 9.6N 132.2W 1008 27
0000UTC 26.05.2020 144 9.4N 132.7W 1006 25

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 9.4N 115.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.05.2020 132 9.4N 115.5W 1007 29
0000UTC 26.05.2020 144 9.8N 113.8W 1005 33


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 200359

>

2020-05-19 16:02


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 191600

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 19.05.2020

TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR ANALYSED POSITION : 36.9N 69.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL012020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.05.2020 0 36.9N 69.6W 996 53
0000UTC 20.05.2020 12 36.1N 67.2W 1003 46
1200UTC 20.05.2020 24 35.1N 66.3W 1005 47
0000UTC 21.05.2020 36 33.2N 65.2W 1010 37
1200UTC 21.05.2020 48 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 9.1N 117.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 25.05.2020 132 9.1N 117.6W 1008 28
1200UTC 25.05.2020 144 9.5N 116.5W 1006 31


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 191600

>

2020-05-19 14:49


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 191446
TCDAT1

Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020
1100 AM AST Tue May 19 2020

Arthur has transitioned into an extratropical low this morning with
a warm front extending northeastward from the circulation, any deep
convection only along the front, and lots of more stable cumulus
clouds near the center. Thus this is the last advisory. The
initial intensity remains 50 kt based on continuity and model
analyses.

The main adjustments to the previous forecast include a quicker
dissipation of the post-tropical cyclone, somewhat linked to the
models showing a faster weakening after 12 hours, and a
continuation of the westward shift in the track forecast in a day
or two. These changes are consistent with the latest model
consensus for track and similar to a GFS/ECMWF blend for intensity.

Dangerous coastal surf conditions and rip currents are expected to
continue along portions of the mid-Atlantic and southeast U.S.
coasts during the next couple of days. See products from your local
National Weather Service Forecast Office for more details.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 36.8N 68.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 20/0000Z 36.4N 66.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 20/1200Z 35.2N 65.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 21/0000Z 33.6N 65.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 21/1200Z 32.0N 64.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-05-19 14:47


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 191445
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020
1100 AM AST Tue May 19 2020

...ARTHUR BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.8N 68.6W
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM NW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Arthur was located near latitude 36.8 North, longitude 68.6 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east near 15 mph (24
km/h), and Arthur is expected to gradually turn southward and slow
down over the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some gradual weakening is forecast to begin tonight and continue
through Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Arthur are expected to affect portions
of the mid-Atlantic and southeast U.S. coasts during the next
day or two. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available
on the Web at http://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-05-19 14:47


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 191445
TCMAT1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012020
1500 UTC TUE MAY 19 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 68.6W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 100 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT.......140NE 120SE 110SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 68.6W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.9N 69.5W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 36.4N 66.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 35.2N 65.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 60SE 80SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 33.6N 65.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...140NE 40SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 32.0N 64.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.8N 68.6W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2020-05-19 08:33


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 190831
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Arthur Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020
500 AM EDT Tue May 19 2020

Arthur's cloud pattern has continued to take on a generally
post-tropical appearance, though a recent convective burst near its
center suggests that it isn't quite post-tropical yet. Satellite
imagery and earlier scatterometer data also indicate the presence of
a developing warm front near the cyclone's center, and this could be
contributing the the development of the aforementioned convective
burst. ASCAT-C data that arrived early this morning showed maximum
winds of 45-50 kt, and this was the primary basis for the initial
intensity.

Virtually no change was made to the intensity forecast. Despite the
recent increase of convection near Arthur's center, extratropical
transition should finish fairly soon. Slight strengthening due to
baroclinic forcing is possible through the afternoon, but the
cyclone is forecast to begin spinning down by tonight or Wednesday
morning. The global and regional models indicate that the system
will dissipate within about 72 h, and this is reflected in the
official forecast.

Only small adjustments were made to the track forecast, which
remains near the multi-model consensus. As Arthur weakens it should
be steered generally southward around the east side of a low-level
ridge. The models differ on how quickly the southward turn will
occur, but all agree on that general scenario. The latest NHC
forecast is a little west of the previous one after 24 h.

Dangerous coastal surf conditions and rip currents are expected to
continue along portions of the mid-Atlantic and southeast U.S.
coasts during the next couple of days. See products from your local
National Weather Service Forecast Office for more details.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 37.0N 70.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 36.9N 68.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 20/0600Z 36.1N 66.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 20/1800Z 34.6N 65.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 21/0600Z 33.3N 65.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 21/1800Z 32.0N 65.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2020-05-19 08:33


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 190830
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Arthur Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020
500 AM EDT Tue May 19 2020

...ARTHUR EXPECTED TO BECOME POST TROPICAL LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.0N 70.6W
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Arthur was
located near latitude 37.0 North, longitude 70.6 West. Arthur is
moving toward the east-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn
toward the east is expected this morning. Arthur is then forecast
to slow down and turn toward the south in another day or so.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Arthur is forecast to become post-tropical later today. Slight
strengthening is possible this morning, but a general weakening
trend is expected to begin by Wednesday. Arthur is expected to
dissipate by the end of the week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Arthur are expected to affect portions
of the mid-Atlantic and southeast U.S. coasts during the next
day or two. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2020-05-19 08:33


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 190830
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012020
0900 UTC TUE MAY 19 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.0N 70.6W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 110SE 110SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.0N 70.6W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 71.5W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 36.9N 68.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 36.1N 66.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...180NE 130SE 80SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 34.6N 65.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...140NE 60SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 33.3N 65.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 32.0N 65.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.0N 70.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2020-05-19 04:02


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 190401

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 19.05.2020

TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR ANALYSED POSITION : 36.4N 73.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL012020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 19.05.2020 36.4N 73.1W MODERATE
12UTC 19.05.2020 37.0N 69.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.05.2020 36.1N 66.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 20.05.2020 34.7N 64.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.05.2020 32.8N 62.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 21.05.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 9.2N 129.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 22.05.2020 9.4N 129.6W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 22.05.2020 9.8N 130.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.05.2020 10.1N 130.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.05.2020 10.1N 131.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.05.2020 10.3N 132.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.05.2020 10.0N 133.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.05.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 9.5N 116.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 25.05.2020 9.5N 116.5W WEAK


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 190401

>

2020-05-19 02:54


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 190252
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Arthur Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020
1100 PM EDT Mon May 18 2020

Arthur's cloud shield has shifted to the left or north side of the
cyclone's direction of motion since the previous advisory, which is
a distinctive sign of a tropical cyclone beginning to lose its
tropical characteristics, especially now due to the cyclone moving
over 23 deg C sea-surface temperatures. However, there remains
enough convection within 45-75 nmi of the center for Arthur to still
be classified as a tropical cyclone. The initial intensity has been
increased to 50 kt based on a recent 0129 UTC ASCAT-B overpass that
indicated several 50-51 kt wind vectors existed in the northwestern
quadrant.

The initial motion estimate is 070/13 kt. Arthur should move east-
northeastward tonight and then turn toward the east by Tuesday
morning as the cyclone moves around the northern periphery of a
low- to mid-level ridge. On day 2, all of the global models are
forecasting the mid- and upper-level circulations to separate
from the low-level circulation, with the latter feature dropping
southeastward and then southward around the eastern portion of a
low-level ridge. The new track forecast is similar to but slightly
east of the previous advisory track on days 2 and 3, and closely
follows a blend of the consensus models TVCN and GFEX.

Only slight strengthening is expected during the next day or so
due to baroclinic effects while Arthur undergoes extratropical
transition. Data from NOAA Buoy 44014, located west Arthur's
center, indicate that a cold front passed over that station around
2300 UTC, which would place the front about 50-75 nmi west of the
cyclone at this time. Therefore, a merger with the front is likely
during the next 12 hours. The system should begin to steadily
weaken shortly after 24 hours when Arthur will be moving over
SSTs near 20 deg C, and in conjunction with the aforementioned
decoupling of the circulations.

Dangerous coastal surf conditions and rip currents are expected to
continue along portions of the mid-Atlantic and southeast U.S.
coasts during the next couple of days. See products from your local
National Weather Service Forecast Office for more details.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 36.4N 72.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 36.9N 70.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 20/0000Z 36.4N 67.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 20/1200Z 35.2N 65.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 21/0000Z 33.7N 64.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 21/1200Z 32.3N 64.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 22/0000Z 30.9N 64.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-05-19 02:53


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 190251
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Arthur Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020
1100 PM EDT Mon May 18 2020

...ARTHUR MOVING FARTHER AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.4N 72.4W
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Arthur was
located near latitude 36.4 North, longitude 72.4 West. Arthur is
moving toward the east-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this
motion is forecast to continue tonight. A turn toward the east is
expected on Tuesday. A slower motion toward the southeast or
south-southeast is expected to begin Tuesday night and continue
through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Arthur will
continue to move out to sea away from the east coast of the United
States.

Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained
winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Although some slight strengthening is forecast during the
next day or so, Arthur is expected to lose its tropical
characteristics on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. NOAA Buoy 44014 located about 100 miles (160 km)
west of Arthur's center recently measured a sustained wind of
38 mph (61 km/h) and a gust to 47 mph (76 km/h). Also, NOAA Buoy
41001 located about 120 miles (200 km) southeast of the center
recently measured a wind gust of 43 mph (69 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Arthur are expected to affect portions
of the mid-Atlantic and southeast U.S. coasts during the next
day or two. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-05-19 02:53


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 190251
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012020
0300 UTC TUE MAY 19 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.4N 72.4W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 0SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.4N 72.4W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.2N 73.1W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 36.9N 70.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 36.4N 67.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 90SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 35.2N 65.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...190NE 90SE 90SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 33.7N 64.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...170NE 60SE 60SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 32.3N 64.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...140NE 0SE 0SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 30.9N 64.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.4N 72.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2020-05-18 20:41


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 182039
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Arthur Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020
500 PM EDT Mon May 18 2020

Although the center of Arthur did not make landfall in the North
Carolina Outer Banks, it passed within about 20 n mi southeast of
Cape Hatteras around 1500 UTC. Tropical-storm-force wind gusts have
been reported at several automated observing sites on and near the
Outer Banks, with the highest sustained wind of 34 kt at Alligator
River Bridge earlier this afternoon. Deep convection continues over
the northeastern portion of Arthur's circulation, but visible
imagery has recently shown an increase in separation between
low-level center and the convective activity. This is the result of
increasing southwesterly shear and the beginning of the cyclone's
extratropical transition. The initial intensity remains 45 kt,
which was in agreement with the earlier aircraft data. As the
cyclone completes its extratropical transition, some strengthening
is forecast due to baroclinic processes. After 24 hours, little
change in strength is expected until the frontal gradients decrease
on Wednesday. The system should gradually spin down after that
time, and dissipate by late in the week.

The initial motion estimate is 045/14 kt. Arthur should continue
northeastward this evening, but is expected to turn eastward Tuesday
morning as the cyclone becomes embedded within the mid-latitude
westerlies. Troughing over the central and western Atlantic should
cause the Arthur to turn southeastward on Wednesday when the
steering flow becomes northwesterly. Little change was required to
the previous NHC official forecast and the updated track again lies
between the GFS, ECMWF, and the multi-model consensus.

Dangerous coastal surf conditions and rip currents are expected to
continue along portions of the mid-Atlantic and southeast U.S.
coasts during the next couple of days. See products from your local
National Weather Service Forecast Office for more details.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 36.1N 73.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 36.9N 71.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 37.0N 68.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 20/0600Z 36.2N 66.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 20/1800Z 34.8N 65.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 21/0600Z 33.0N 64.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 21/1800Z 31.5N 64.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-05-18 20:41


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 182039
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Arthur Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020
500 PM EDT Mon May 18 2020

...ARTHUR CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER
BANKS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.1N 73.9W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM NE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All Tropical Storm Warnings have been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Arthur was
located near latitude 36.1 North, longitude 73.9 West. Arthur is
moving toward the northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward
the east-northeast is expected tonight, followed by a turn
toward the east on Tuesday. A slower southeast or south-southeast
motion is expected to begin Tuesday night and continue through
Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Arthur will
continue to move away from the east coast of the United States.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
While some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours,
Arthur is likely to lose its tropical characteristics late by
tonight or Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
primarily to the east of the center. NOAA Buoy 44014 located about
50 miles north west of Arthur's center recently measured a
sustained wind of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a gust to 45 mph (72 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Arthur are expected to affect portions
of the mid-Atlantic and southeast U.S. coasts during the next
day or two. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-05-18 20:41


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 182039
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012020
2100 UTC MON MAY 18 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 73.9W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 73.9W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.6N 74.6W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 36.9N 71.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 37.0N 68.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 90SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 36.2N 66.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...200NE 90SE 90SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 34.8N 65.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 60SE 60SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 33.0N 64.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 0SE 0SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 31.5N 64.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.1N 73.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2020-05-18 17:40


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 181738
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Arthur Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020
200 PM EDT Mon May 18 2020

...CENTER OF ARTHUR MOVING AWAY FROM NORTH CAROLINA WHILE
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF THE OUTER BANKS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.6N 74.7W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Ocracoke
Inlet.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Ocracoke Inlet to Duck NC
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Arthur was
located near latitude 35.6 North, longitude 74.7 West. Arthur is
moving toward the northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). This general
motion should continue today, followed by a turn toward the east on
Tuesday. A slower southeast or south-southeast motion is forecast
to begin Tuesday night and continue through Wednesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Arthur will continue to move away from
the North Carolina Outer Banks this afternoon. Arthur is then
forecast to turn away from the east coast of the United States
tonight and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. While some strengthening is forecast during the next 24
hours, Arthur is likely to lose its tropical characteristics late
tonight or Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center, primarily over water to the east of the center. A
WeatherFlow observing site at Alligator River Bridge measured
sustained winds of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust to 46 mph (74 km/h)
earlier this afternoon. A wind gust to 42 mph (68 km/h) was recently
reported at Oregon Inlet.

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance
aircraft data is 993 mb (29.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical
Storm Warning area through this afternoon.

RAINFALL: Arthur is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
1 to 3 inches over coastal North Carolina through this afternoon,
with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches.

SURF: Swells generated by Arthur are affecting portions of the
southeast U.S. coast and are expected to spread northward along the
U.S. mid-Atlantic coast during the next day or so. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-05-18 14:45


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 181442
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Arthur Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020
1100 AM EDT Mon May 18 2020

Arthur has become a little better organized this morning with an
overall increase in convection and banding noted since overnight.
The first couple of reconnaissance aircraft passes through the
center have shown that the pressure has fallen to around 996 mb.
The plane has also reported several believable SFMR winds of 38-43
kt, and the anemometer on buoy 41025 at an elevation of only 4 m
has reported a peak 1-minute wind of 37 kt. Based on these data
the initial intensity is set at 45 kt.

The forward speed of Arthur has continued to increase and the
estimated motion is north-northeast at 14 kt. The cyclone should
turn northeastward later today and begin moving away from the North
Carolina Outer Banks as a mid-latitude trough approaches from the
west. By Tuesday, Arthur is forecast to turn eastward within the
mid-latitude westerlies. After that time, a deepening trough over
the central and western Atlantic is expected to cause the cyclone to
turn southeastward as the steering flow turns northwestward. The GFS
and ECMWF are now in relatively good agreement on this scenario and
the new NHC track forecast lies between those typically reliable
models and the multi-model consensus aids.

Although the vertical shear is increasing over the storm and it is
soon moving over cooler waters, some strengthening due to baroclinic
process is predicted over the next 24 hours. The storm should merge
with a frontal boundary late tonight or early Tuesday which will
complete Arthur's transition to an extratropical cyclone. By
Wednesday, the post-tropical cyclone should begin to weaken as the
frontal gradients decrease. The post-tropical cyclone should
dissipate in about 96 h.


Key Messages:

1. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for a portion of the
North Carolina coast. Tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rains
are expected there today.

2. Dangerous coastal surf conditions and rip currents are expected
to spread northward along the southeast U.S. coast to the
mid-Atlantic states during the next couple of days. See products
from your local National Weather Service Forecast Office for more
details.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 35.1N 75.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 36.4N 73.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 37.2N 70.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 20/0000Z 36.8N 67.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 20/1200Z 35.5N 65.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 21/0000Z 34.0N 65.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 21/1200Z 32.0N 64.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-05-18 14:44


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 181441
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Arthur Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020
1100 AM EDT Mon May 18 2020

...CENTER OF ARTHUR PASSING JUST SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS...
...STORM BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.1N 75.2W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM ESE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Surf City to Duck NC
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Arthur was
located near latitude 35.1 North, longitude 75.2 West. Arthur is
moving toward the north-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn
toward the northeast is expected later today, followed by a turn
toward the east on Tuesday. A slower southeast or south-southeast
motion is forecast to begin Tuesday night and continue through
Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Arthur will begin
moving away from the North Carolina Outer Banks this afternoon.
Arthur is then forecast to turn away from the east coast of the
United States tonight and Tuesday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the
next 24 hours. Little change in strength is expected Tuesday night
and Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center, primarily over water to the east of the center.
NOAA buoy 41025 located about 20 miles (30 km) southeast of Cape
Hatteras, North Carolina, reported sustained winds of 43 mph (68
km/h) with a gust to 49 mph (80 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance
aircraft data is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical
Storm Warning area through early afternoon.

RAINFALL: Arthur is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
1 to 3 inches over coastal North Carolina through this afternoon,
with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches.

SURF: Swells generated by Arthur are affecting portions of the
southeast U.S. coast and are expected to spread northward along the
U.S. mid-Atlantic coast during the next day or so. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-05-18 14:44


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 181441
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012020
1500 UTC MON MAY 18 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SURF CITY TO DUCK NC
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.1N 75.2W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......110NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.1N 75.2W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.6N 75.8W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 36.4N 73.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 37.2N 70.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE 90SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 36.8N 67.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 90SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 35.5N 65.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...180NE 90SE 60SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 34.0N 65.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 40SE 40SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 32.0N 64.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.1N 75.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 18/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2020-05-18 11:56


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 181153
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Arthur Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020
800 AM EDT Mon May 18 2020

...ARTHUR BRINGING HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.5N 75.9W
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM ESE OF MOREHEAD CITY NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Surf City to Duck NC
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Arthur was
located near latitude 34.5 North, longitude 75.9 West. Arthur is
moving toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn
toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected
later today, followed by a turn toward the east on Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Arthur will approach the coast of
North Carolina during the next few hours, and then move near or just
east of the coast of North Carolina later today. Arthur is then
forecast to turn away from the east coast of the United States
tonight and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. While some strengthening is forecast during the next 48
hours, Arthur is likely to lose its tropical characteristics on
Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
mainly to the east of the center. NOAA buoy 41025 located about 20
miles (30 km) south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, has
recently reported a wind gust to 43 mph (69 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure reported from an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical
Storm Warning area today.

RAINFALL: Arthur is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
1 to 3 inches over coastal North Carolina through this afternoon,
with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches.

SURF: Swells generated by Arthur are affecting portions of the
southeast U.S. coast and are expected to spread northward along the
U.S. mid-Atlantic coast during the next day or so. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-05-18 08:38


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 180835
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Arthur Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020
500 AM EDT Mon May 18 2020

Arthur remains poorly organized in both satellite and radar imagery
this morning, with the low-level center located near the
southwestern edge of a complex of ragged convective bands. Surface
observations from buoys off of the North Carolina coast suggest the
central pressure has fallen a little since the last aircraft fix,
so the intensity will be held at 40 kt for this advisory. The next
aircraft is scheduled to reach Arthur between 11-12Z.

Arthur's forward speed has increased with the initial motion now
020/12. A baroclinic trough and associated surface front
approaching from the west should cause Arthur to turn northeastward
during the next several hours, with the forecast track showing the
center passing near or just offshore of the North Carolina Outer
Banks. By Tuesday and Tuesday night, Arthur will be entering the
strong mid-latitude Westerlies, which will steer cyclone eastward
for a day or two. After that time, Arthur or its remnants should
turn southeastward and southward on the southwest side of a
deep-layer trough over the central Atlantic. The latest guidance
is showing a more southward motion after 60 h than seen previously,
and the new forecast track is also nudged southward during that
time.

Arthur is moving near and almost parallel to the Gulf Stream, and
the warm water could allow some strengthening before southwesterly
shear increases significantly later today. The cyclone should merge
with a frontal system and become extratropical in the 24-36 h
period, with the global models indicating some increase in the winds
north of the center as this occurs. The intensity forecast calls
for Arthur to reach a 50 kt intensity in 36 h as an extratropical
low in best agreement with the GFS model. After 48 h, the system
should decay, and the global models suggest it should dissipate in
the 96-120 h period. The new intensity forecast has only minor
tweaks from the previous forecast.


Key Messages:

1. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for a portion of the
North Carolina coast. Tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rains
are expected there today.

2. Dangerous coastal surf conditions and rip currents are expected
to spread northward along the southeast U.S. coast to the
mid-Atlantic states during the next couple of days. See products
from your local National Weather Service Forecast Office for more
details.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 33.5N 76.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 35.2N 74.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 36.5N 72.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 36.5N 69.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 20/0600Z 35.6N 66.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 20/1800Z 34.4N 65.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 21/0600Z 33.0N 64.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 22/0600Z 31.0N 63.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-05-18 08:36


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 180834
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Arthur Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020
500 AM EDT Mon May 18 2020

...CENTER OF ARTHUR GETTING CLOSER TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...
...ASSOCIATED RAINBANDS SPREADING INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.5N 76.6W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF MOREHEAD CITY NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Surf City to Duck NC
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Arthur was
located near latitude 33.5 North, longitude 76.6 West. Arthur is
moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn
toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected
later today, followed by a turn toward the east on Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Arthur will approach the coast of
North Carolina during the next few hours, and then move near or
just east of the coast of North Carolina later today. Arthur is
then forecast to turn away from the east coast of the United
States tonight and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
While some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours,
Arthur is likely to lose its tropical characteristics on Tuesday

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
mainly to the east of the center. The Cherry Point Marine Corps
Air station recently reported a wind gust of 39 mph (63 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical
Storm Warning area today.

RAINFALL: Arthur is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
1 to 3 inches over coastal North Carolina through this afternoon,
with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches.

SURF: Swells generated by Arthur are affecting portions of the
southeast U.S. coast and are expected to spread northward along the
U.S. mid-Atlantic coast during the next day or two. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-05-18 08:36


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 180834
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012020
0900 UTC MON MAY 18 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SURF CITY TO DUCK NC
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.5N 76.6W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.5N 76.6W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 76.8W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 35.2N 74.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 36.5N 72.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 36.5N 69.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 35.6N 66.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE 70SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 34.4N 65.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 70SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 33.0N 64.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...160NE 90SE 60SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 31.0N 63.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.5N 76.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 18/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2020-05-18 05:42


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 180539
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Arthur Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020
200 AM EDT Mon May 18 2020

...ARTHUR MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE COAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.0N 76.7W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Surf City to Duck NC
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Arthur was
located near latitude 33.0 North, longitude 76.7 West. Arthur is
moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn
toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is forecast
to occur later today. A turn toward the east is expected on
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Arthur will approach
the coast of North Carolina during the next several hours, and then
move near or just east of the coast of North Carolina later today.
Arthur is forecast to turn away from the east coast of the United
States tonight and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.
Arthur is likely to lose its tropical characteristics on Tuesday

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical
Storm Warning area today.

RAINFALL: Arthur is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
1 to 3 inches over coastal North Carolina through today, with
isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches.

SURF: Swells generated by Arthur are affecting portions of the
southeast U.S. coast and are expected to spread northward along the
U.S. mid-Atlantic coast during the next day or two. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-05-18 03:01


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 180259
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Arthur Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020
1100 PM EDT Sun May 17 2020

...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT ARTHUR HAS
CHANGED LITTLE AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.4N 76.9W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Surf City to Duck NC
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Arthur was
located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near
latitude 32.4 North, longitude 76.9 West. Arthur is moving toward
the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the
northeast with an increase in forward speed is forecast to occur on
Monday. A turn toward the east is expected on Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Arthur will remain well offshore of
the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina overnight, and then move
near or just east of the coast of North Carolina on Monday. Arthur
is forecast to turn away from the east coast of the United States
Monday night and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Arthur is
likely to lose tropical characteristics Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure measured by the reconnaissance
aircraft is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical
Storm Warning area on Monday.

RAINFALL: Arthur is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
1 to 3 inches over coastal North Carolina Sunday night and Monday,
with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches.

SURF: Swells generated by Arthur are affecting portions of the
southeast U.S. coast and are expected to spread northward along the
U.S. mid-Atlantic coast during the next day or two. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-05-18 02:58


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 180256
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Arthur Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020
1100 PM EDT Sun May 17 2020

Arthur's appearance in radar and satellite imagery has degraded
significantly since the previous advisory with very little
convective banding features present now. However, an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating the cyclone late this
afternoon and early has found maximum 850-mb flight-level winds of
46 kt in the eastern quadrant along with reliable SFMR surface wind
speeds of 36-38 kt, plus a central pressure of 1003 mb. Based on
these data, the initial intensity has been held at 40 kt for this
advisory since higher wind speeds could be present within areas of
convection north of the center that were not sampled.

Aircraft and satellite fixes indicate that Arthur has continued to
move north-northeastward or 020/09 kt. The cyclone is forecast to
accelerate northeastward on Monday ahead of an approaching shortwave
trough and frontal system, and remain just offshore of the North
Carolina Outer Banks. By Tuesday night, Arthur will be entering the
strong mid-latitude Westerlies, which will steer cyclone eastward
and also induce extratropical transition when the cyclone merges
with the aforementioned frontal system. The new NHC track guidance
is tightly clustered about the previous forecast track, so no
significant cross-track changes were required. However, some slight
changes to the forward were required on days 2 and 3, and the new
NHC track forecast now shows Arthur moving a little faster to the
east and southeast on those days.

Arthur is currently moving over the warmest waters in the Gulfstream
where ocean temperatures are 26-26.5 deg C. However, some mid-level
shear undercutting the otherwise upper-level outflow pattern,
coupled with the entrainment of dry mid-level air has disrupted the
overall convective pattern. These unfavorable conditions should
continue for the next coupe of days, with only intermittent bursts
of deep convection occuring near the center until Arthur passes
northeast of the Outer Banks by late Monday. Thereafter, baroclinic
effects along with extratropical transition are expected to cause
some further strengthening before weakening begins late Tuesday and
on Wednesday. The official intensity forecast follows a blend of the
intensity consensus model IVCN, and the GFS and ECMWF model
forecasts.


Key Messages:

1. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for a portion of the
North Carolina coast. Tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rains
are expected there on Monday.

2. Dangerous coastal surf conditions and rip currents are expected
to spread northward along the southeast U.S. coast to the
mid-Atlantic states during the next couple of days. See products
from your local National Weather Service Forecast Office for more
details.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 32.4N 76.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 34.0N 75.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 35.8N 73.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 36.4N 70.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 20/0000Z 36.0N 67.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 20/1200Z 35.0N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 21/0000Z 33.8N 64.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 22/0000Z 31.6N 62.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-05-18 02:56


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 180253
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012020
0300 UTC MON MAY 18 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SURF CITY TO DUCK NC
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 76.9W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 76.9W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 77.0W

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 34.0N 75.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 35.8N 73.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 36.4N 70.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 36.0N 67.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE 70SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 35.0N 66.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 70SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 33.8N 64.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...180NE 90SE 60SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 31.6N 62.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.4N 76.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 18/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BERG

>

2020-05-17 23:54


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 172352
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Arthur Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020
800 PM EDT Sun May 17 2020

...ARTHUR'S OUTER RAINBANDS SKIRTING THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.8N 77.0W
ABOUT 260 MI...425 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Surf City to Duck NC
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Arthur was
located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near
latitude 31.8 North, longitude 77.0 West. Arthur is moving toward
the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the
northeast with an increase in forward speed is forecast to occur
later tonight or on Monday. A turn toward the east is expected on
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Arthur will remain
well offshore of the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina tonight,
and then move near or just east of the coast of North Carolina on
Monday. Arthur is forecast to turn away from the east coast of the
United States Monday night and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day or
so. Arthur is likely to lose tropical characteristics on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure recently measured by the
reconnaissance aircraft was 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical
Storm Warning area on Monday.

RAINFALL: Arthur is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
1 to 3 inches over coastal North Carolina tonight and Monday,
with locally higher amounts.

SURF: Swells generated by Arthur are affecting portions of the
southeast U.S. coast and are expected to spread northward along the
U.S. mid-Atlantic coast during the next day or two. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Berg

>

2020-05-17 20:34


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 172032
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Arthur Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020
500 PM EDT Sun May 17 2020

Arthur's satellite presentation has not changed much since the
previous advisory. There are still some fragmented convective
bands over the eastern portions of the circulation, but convective
activity remains limited over the western half of the storm. A
late-arriving ASCAT overpass from around the time of the previous
advisory revealed somewhat lower wind speeds than reported by
this morning's reconnaissance aircraft. This could be the result
of the convection becoming more fragmented after the aircraft
sampled that portion of the storm or related to the low bias of
the ASCAT instrument. Regardless, the initial intensity remains a
possibly generous 40 kt for now. Another reconnaissance aircraft
is scheduled to investigate Arthur this evening.

Arthur is forecast to remain within a low wind shear environment
and over marginally warm sea surface temperatures through early
Monday. These conditions favor some strengthening, however the
sprawling structure of the cyclone and nearby dry mid-level air are
likely to temper any increase in wind speed. After 36-48 hours,
baroclinic forcing is expected to help the post-tropical cyclone
maintain its intensity. Later in the period, the frontal
gradients decrease which should cause weakening.

Recent satellite fixes show that the Arthur is still moving
north-northeastward at about 8 kt. The tropical storm should begin
to accelerate northeastward overnight as a mid-level trough moves
into the eastern United States. By Tuesday night, the steering
flow is expected to become westerly which should cause Arthur to
turn eastward, then southeastward later in the forecast period.
The lastest dynamical track guidance has come into a little better
agreement through 36-48 hours with the GFS and ECMWF converging on
the previous NHC track. As a result, little change was needed to
the first couple of days of the earlier NHC track forecast. After
that time, most of the guidance has trended toward a faster
eastward and east-southeastward motion, and the NHC forecast has
been adjusted accordingly in that direction as well.


Key Messages:

1. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for a portion of the
North Carolina coast. Tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rains
are expected there on Monday.

2. Dangerous coastal surf conditions and rip currents are expected
to spread northward along the southeast U.S. coast to the
mid-Atlantic states during the next couple of days. See products
from your local National Weather Service Forecast Office for more
details.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 31.5N 77.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 33.1N 76.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 35.3N 74.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 36.6N 71.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 36.8N 69.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 20/0600Z 36.3N 67.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 20/1800Z 35.6N 66.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 21/1800Z 34.0N 64.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-05-17 20:34


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 172031
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Arthur Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020
500 PM EDT Sun May 17 2020

...ARTHUR'S OUTER RAINBANDS CREEPING TOWARD THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.5N 77.2W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Surf City to Duck NC
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Arthur was
located near latitude 31.5 North, longitude 77.2 West. Arthur is
moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn
toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected
during the next 24 to 36 hours. A turn toward the east is forecast
to occur on Tuesday. On the forecast track, Arthur will remain
well offshore of the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina tonight,
and then move near or just east of the coast of North Carolina on
Monday. Arthur is forecast to turn away from the east coast of the
United States Monday night and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day or so.
Arthur is likely to lose tropical characteristics on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical
Storm Warning area on Monday.

RAINFALL: Arthur is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
1 to 3 inches over coastal North Carolina tonight and Monday,
with locally higher amounts.

SURF: Swells generated by Arthur are affecting portions of
the southeast U.S. coast and are expected to spread northward along
the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast during the next day or two. These
swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-05-17 20:34


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 172031
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012020
2100 UTC SUN MAY 17 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SURF CITY TO DUCK NC
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 77.2W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 77.2W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 77.3W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 33.1N 76.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 35.3N 74.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 36.6N 71.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 36.8N 69.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE 70SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 36.3N 67.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 70SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 35.6N 66.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 90SE 60SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 34.0N 64.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.5N 77.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 18/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2020-05-17 17:49


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 171747
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Arthur Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020
200 PM EDT Sun May 17 2020

...ARTHUR CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.0N 77.3W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Surf City to Duck NC
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Arthur was
located near latitude 31.0 North, longitude 77.3 West. Arthur is
moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn
toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected
during the next 24 to 48 hours. On the forecast track, Arthur will
remain well offshore of the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina
today and tonight, and then move near or just east of the coast of
North Carolina on Monday. Arthur is forecast to turn away from the
east coast of the United States Monday night and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 24 to
36 hours. Arthur is likely to lose tropical characteristics on
Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical
Storm Warning area on Monday.

RAINFALL: Arthur is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
1 to 3 inches over coastal North Carolina tonight and Monday,
with locally higher amounts.

SURF: Swells generated by Arthur are affecting portions of
the southeast U.S. coast and are expected to spread northward along
the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast during the next day or two. These
swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-05-17 14:47


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 171445
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Arthur Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020
1100 AM EDT Sun May 17 2020

Visible satellite imagery reveals a couple of convective bands over
the eastern semicircle of the tropical storm, but convection is
sparse over the western portion of the circulation. The latest
reports from an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft show peak 925-mb
flight-level winds of 48 kt, and believable SFMR winds of 35-40 kt.
On this basis, the initial wind speed has been increased to 40 kt.
The plane has reported a minimum pressure of 1002-1003 mb, which is
down a few millibars from the previous flight.

Arthur has a little more than 24 hours in which to gradually
strengthen. The storm will be traversing the relatively warm
waters of the Gulf stream, and the vertical shear is forecast to
remain low through early Monday. After that time, increasing shear
and cooler sea surface temperatures should put a halt to the
tropical cyclone strengthening processes. Baroclinic forcing is
likely to help the post-tropical cyclone maintain its strengthen
through extratropical transition. Later in the forecast period,
the global model guidance shows weakening as the frontal gradients
decrease.

The storm is moving north-northeastward or 015/8 kt. Arthur is
expected to begin moving a little faster later today and tonight as
a mid-level trough approaches the eastern United States. Later in
the forecast period, the cyclone should turn eastward within the
westerly steering flow. Although the dynamical models are in
agreement on the overall scenario, there remains some spread as to
how close the center of Arthur will track to the North Carolina
Outer Bands. The GFS and HWRF remain along the western side of the
guidance while the ECMWF and UKMET bracket the eastern side. The
NHC track lies near the model consensus and little change was
required to the previous track through 36-48 hours. After that
time, the track guidance spread increases with the ECMWF showing a
much faster east-southeastward motion than the GFS. The NHC
forecast remains near the consensus after 48 hours, but there is
less confidence in that portion of the track prediction.


Key Messages:

1. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for a portion of the
North Carolina coast. Tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rains
are expected there on Monday.

2. Dangerous coastal surf conditions and rip currents are expected
to spread northward along the southeast U.S. coast to the
mid-Atlantic states during the next couple of days. See products
from your local National Weather Service Forecast Office for more
details.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 30.5N 77.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 32.0N 76.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 34.3N 75.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 36.4N 73.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 37.3N 70.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 20/0000Z 37.1N 68.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 20/1200Z 36.5N 66.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 21/1200Z 35.5N 64.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-05-17 14:46


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 171444
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Arthur Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020
1100 AM EDT Sun May 17 2020

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS ARTHUR A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.5N 77.4W
ABOUT 345 MI...550 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Surf City to Duck NC
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Arthur was
located near latitude 30.5 North, longitude 77.4 West. Arthur is
moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn
toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected
during the next 24 to 48 hours. On the forecast track, Arthur will
remain well offshore the east coast of Florida, Georgia, and
South Carolina today, and then move near or just east of the coast
of North Carolina on Monday. Arthur is forecast to turn away from
the U.S. East Coast on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast
during the next 24 to 36 hours. Arthur is likely to lose tropical
characteristics on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
reconnaissance aircraft is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical
Storm Warning area on Monday.

RAINFALL: Arthur is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
1 to 3 inches over coastal North Carolina tonight and Monday,
with locally higher amounts.

SURF: Swells generated by Arthur are affecting portions of
the southeast U.S. coast and are expected to spread northward along
the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast during the next day or two. These
swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions
across much of the U.S. southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-05-17 14:46


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 171444
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012020
1500 UTC SUN MAY 17 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SURF CITY TO DUCK NC
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 77.4W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 0SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 77.4W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 77.4W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 32.0N 76.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 34.3N 75.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 36.4N 73.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 37.3N 70.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 37.1N 68.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 36.5N 66.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 90SE 70SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 35.5N 64.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.5N 77.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 17/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2020-05-17 11:56


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 171153
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Arthur Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020
800 AM EDT Sun May 17 2020

...ARTHUR MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.3N 77.4W
ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Surf City to Duck NC
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Arthur was
located near latitude 30.3 North, longitude 77.4 West. Arthur is
moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn
toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected
during the next 24 to 48 hours. On the forecast track, Arthur will
remain well offshore the east coast of Florida, Georgia, and South
Carolina today, and then move near or just east of the coast of
North Carolina on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.
Arthur is likely to lose its tropical characteristics on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical
Storm Warning area on Monday.

RAINFALL: Arthur is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
1 to 3 inches over coastal North Carolina tonight and Monday,
with locally higher amounts.

SURF: Swells generated by Arthur are affecting portions of
the southeast U.S. coast and are expected to spread northward along
the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast during the next day or two. These
swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions
across much of the U.S. southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown / Blake

>

2020-05-17 08:50


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 170848
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Arthur Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020
500 AM EDT Sun May 17 2020

Arthur has not changed much in organization overnight. The storm
features a large curved convective band over the eastern semicircle
of the circulation, and the low-level center appears to be exposed
to the west of that band. The intensity is held at 35 kt in
agreement with a subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB and ADT
estimates from UW-CIMSS. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the cyclone around 12Z which should provide
a good estimate of Arthur's intensity.

Although Arthur will be crossing back over the Gulf Stream tonight
and Monday, vertical shear is forecast to steadily increase during
that time. With these counteracting influences on intensity
change, only slight strengthening is anticipated during the next
24-36 hours. The official forecast is close to the model consensus
and is similar to the previous one. In 2-3 days, some strengthening
due to baroclinic processes is possible, since the global models
depict extratropical transition around that time. Later in
the forecast period, the dynamical guidance shows weakening as the
frontal gradients decrease.

The storm has been moving a little to the left of the previous
estimates and the motion is now around 015/8 kt. An approaching
mid-level trough over the eastern U.S. should cause the cyclone to
accelerate northeastward during the next 48 hours or so. Later in
the forecast period, Arthur or its post-tropical remnants should
turn eastward within a general westerly flow field. There has been
a bit of a westward shift in much of the track guidance for the
next 1-2 days, which has necessitated a leftward adjustment of the
official forecast track. Since the new NHC forecast is now closer
to the North Carolina Outer Banks, the Tropical Storm Watch has
been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning for that area.

Key Messages:

1. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for a portion of the
North Carolina coast. Tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rains
are expected there on Monday.

2. Dangerous coastal surf conditions and rip currents are expected
to spread northward from Florida to the mid-Atlantic states during
the next few days. See products from your local National Weather
Service Forecast Office for more details.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 30.0N 77.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 31.2N 77.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 33.2N 76.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 18/1800Z 35.5N 74.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 19/0600Z 36.9N 72.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 19/1800Z 37.3N 69.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 20/0600Z 37.0N 67.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 21/0600Z 36.0N 66.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-05-17 08:49


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 170847
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Arthur Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020
500 AM EDT Sun May 17 2020

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER
BANKS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 77.6W
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch is changed to a Tropical Storm Warning
from Surf City to Duck, North Carolina, including Pamlico and
Albermarle Sounds.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Surf City to Duck NC
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Arthur was
located near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 77.6 West. Arthur is
moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn
toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected
during the next 24 to 48 hours. On the forecast track, Arthur will
remain well offshore the east coast of Florida, Georgia,
and South Carolina today, and then move near or just east of the
coast of North Carolina on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Arthur is
likely to lose its tropical characteristics on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical
Storm Warning area on Monday.

RAINFALL: Arthur is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
1 to 3 inches over coastal North Carolina tonight and Monday,
with locally higher amounts.

SURF: Swells generated by Arthur are affecting portions of
the east coast of central and northern Florida. These swells are
expected to spread northward during the next few days, and could
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions across much
of the U.S. southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-05-17 08:49


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 170847
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012020
0900 UTC SUN MAY 17 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FROM SURF CITY TO DUCK...NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO AND
ALBERMARLE SOUNDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SURF CITY TO DUCK NC
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 77.6W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 75SE 0SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 77.6W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 77.7W

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 31.2N 77.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 33.2N 76.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 35.5N 74.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 36.9N 72.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 37.3N 69.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 37.0N 67.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 36.0N 66.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.0N 77.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 17/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2020-05-17 05:34


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 170532
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Arthur Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020
200 AM EDT Sun May 17 2020

...ARTHUR CONTINUING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 77.7W
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Surf City to Duck NC
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning could be required for portions of the
Watch area later this morning.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Arthur was
located near latitude 29.6 North, longitude 77.7 West. Arthur is
moving toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue today. A faster
northeastward motion is expected on Monday. On the forecast track,
Arthur will remain well offshore the east coast of Florida, Georgia,
and South Carolina today, and then move near or east of the coast of
North Carolina on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area on Monday.

RAINFALL: Arthur is expected to produce additional rain
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches over the central and northwest
Bahamas, through this morning. Arthur is also expected to produce
total rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches over coastal North
Carolina tonight and Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Arthur are affecting portions of
the east coast of central and northern Florida. These swells are
expected to spread northward during the next few days, and could
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions across much
of the U.S. southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-05-17 03:42


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 170337 CCA
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Arthur Advisory Number 2...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020
1100 PM EDT Sat May 16 2020

Corrected to change depression to Arthur in hazards section

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS THE DEPRESSION EAST OF FLORIDA HAS
STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR...
...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 77.7W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM ENE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Surf City to Duck NC
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning could be required for portions of the
Watch area by Sunday morning.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Arthur was
located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near
latitude 29.4 North, longitude 77.7 West. Arthur is moving toward
the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A motion toward the
north-northeast or northeast is expected tonight and Sunday. After
that time, a faster northeastward motion is expected on Monday. On
the forecast track, Arthur will remain well offshore the east coast
of Florida and Georgia tonight and Sunday, and then move near or
east of the coast of North Carolina on Monday.

Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48
hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure based on reports from the
reconnaissance aircraft is estimated to be 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area on Monday.

RAINFALL: Arthur is expected to produce additional rain
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches over the central and northwest
Bahamas, and generally less than 1 inch over south Florida through
tonight. Arthur is also expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches over coastal North Carolina Sunday
night and Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Arthur are affecting portions of
the east coast of central and northern Florida. These swells are
expected to spread northward during the next few days, and could
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions across much
of the U.S. southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-05-17 03:14


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 170311 CCA
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012020
0300 UTC SUN MAY 17 2020

CORRECTED 12-HOUR 34-KT WIND RADII

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SURF CITY TO DUCK NC
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATCH AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 77.7W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 77.7W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 77.9W

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 30.5N 77.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 32.2N 76.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 34.1N 75.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 36.2N 73.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 37.5N 70.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 38.0N 69.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 38.0N 67.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.4N 77.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 17/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2020-05-17 02:56


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 170253
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Arthur Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020
1100 PM EDT Sat May 16 2020

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that has been
investigating the tropical cyclone east of Florida has recently
found maximum 925-mb flight-level winds of 45-46 kt to the
southeast and east of the center, which equates to surface winds
of 34-35 kt, along with uncontaminated SFMR surface wind speeds of
33-36 kt. Based on these data, the depression has been upgraded to
Tropical Storm Arthur, the first named storm of the 2020 Atlantic
hurricane season.

The initial motion estimate remains north-northeastward or 030/11
kt. Arthur made a slight northeastward jog earlier this evening,
but now appears to have returned to its previous base course. A
motion toward the north-northeast is forecast to continue for the
next 24 hours or so, keeping the cyclone well offshore the coasts
of Florida and Georgia. A sharp shortwave trough currently moving
across the southern Plains is forecast to dig east-southeast to
southeastward over the next 48 hours, which will act to accelerate
and eject Arthur more poleward. The more the shortwave trough digs
and loses latitude, the more Arthur could get pulled closer to
the North Carolina Outer Banks as per the GFS and HWRF scenarios.
In contrast, the ECMWF and UKMET models show the shortwave losing
amplitude quickly and lifting out, which acts to push Arthur
farther away from the United States east coast. For now, the new
NHC forecast track closely follows the various consensus models,
which are about midway between the GFS-HWRF and ECMWF-UKMET
solutions. However, the track was adjusted slightly to the right of
the previous advisory track due mainly to the more eastward initial
position. It should be noted that forecast track uncertainty is
typically larger for weak systems like Arthur.

Arthur has moved off of the warm waters of the Gulfstream current
and currently is passing over a cold pool with SSTs near 24.5 deg
C. These cooler waters should prevent any significant strengthening
in the very near term. By 24 hours however, the cyclone is forecast
to pass back over the warmer waters of the Gulfstream while moving
into a very low vertical wind shear regime. These conditions,
coupled with some cooler air aloft, should allow more vigorous
convection to develop near the center, resulting in more
strengthening as Arthur passes near the North Carolina coast.
Extratropical transition should occur in about 48-60 hours over the
much cooler waters of the North Atlantic. The NHC intensity
forecast follows a blend of the consensus models HCCA and IVCN, and
is similar to the previous intensity forecast.

Key Messages:

1. A tropical storm watch is in effect for a portion of the
North Carolina coast. Tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rains
are possible there on Monday.

2. Dangerous coastal surf conditions and rip currents are expected
to spread northward from Florida to the mid-Atlantic states during
the next few days. See products from your local National Weather
Service Forecast Office for more details.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 29.4N 77.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 30.5N 77.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 32.2N 76.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 34.1N 75.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 36.2N 73.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 19/1200Z 37.5N 70.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 20/0000Z 38.0N 69.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 21/0000Z 38.0N 67.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-05-17 02:56


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 170254
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Arthur Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020
1100 PM EDT Sat May 16 2020

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS THE DEPRESSION EAST OF FLORIDA HAS
STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR...
...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 77.7W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM ENE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Surf City to Duck NC
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning could be required for portions of the
Watch area by Sunday morning.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Arthur was
located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near
latitude 29.4 North, longitude 77.7 West. Arthur is moving toward
the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A motion toward the
north-northeast or northeast is expected tonight and Sunday. After
that time, a faster northeastward motion is expected on Monday. On
the forecast track, Arthur will remain well offshore the east coast
of Florida and Georgia tonight and Sunday, and then move near or
east of the coast of North Carolina on Monday.

Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48
hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure based on reports from the
reconnaissance aircraft is estimated to be 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area on Monday.

RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce additional rain
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches over the central and northwest
Bahamas, and generally less than 1 inch over south Florida through
tonight. The depression is also expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches over coastal North Carolina Sunday
night and Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of
the east coast of central and northern Florida. These swells are
expected to spread northward during the next few days, and could
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions across much
of the U.S. southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-05-17 02:55


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 170252
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012020
0300 UTC SUN MAY 17 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SURF CITY TO DUCK NC
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATCH AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 77.7W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 77.7W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 77.9W

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 30.5N 77.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 32.2N 76.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 34.1N 75.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 36.2N 73.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 37.5N 70.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 38.0N 69.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 38.0N 67.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.4N 77.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 17/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2020-05-16 23:54


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 162352
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression One Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020
800 PM EDT Sat May 16 2020

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS THE DEPRESSION A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED...
...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 77.9W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ENE OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA
ABOUT 460 MI...735 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Surf City to Duck NC
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning could be required for portions of the
Watch area by Sunday morning.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression One was
located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near
latitude 28.9 North, longitude 77.9 West. The depression is moving
toward the northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A motion toward the
northeast or north-northeast is expected tonight into Sunday
morning. After that time, a faster northeastward motion is
expected. On the forecast track, the depression is expected to
remain well offshore the east coast of Florida and Georgia tonight
and Sunday, and then move near or east of the coast of North
Carolina on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is
expected to become a tropical storm on Sunday.

The minimum central pressure recently measured by a reconnaissance
aircraft was 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area on Monday.

RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce additional rain
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches over the central and northwest
Bahamas, and generally less than 1 inch over south Florida through
tonight. The depression is also expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches over coastal North Carolina Sunday
night and Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of
the east coast of central and northern Florida. These swells are
expected to spread northward during the next few days, and could
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions across much
of the U.S. southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-05-16 21:40


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 162137 CCB
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression One Advisory Number 1...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020
500 PM EDT Sat May 16 2020

Corrected Tropical Storm Watch end point to Surf City in summary

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE COAST OF EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.4N 78.6W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM E OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA
ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the North Carolina coast
from north of Surf City to Duck, including Pamlico and
Albemarle Sounds.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Surf City to Duck NC
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression One
was located near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 78.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20
km/h) and this motion should continue during the next day or so.
After that time, a faster northeastward motion is expected. On
the forecast track, the depression is expected to move offshore,
but parallel to, the coast of Florida tonight, and then move near
or east of the coast of North Carolina on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected
to become a tropical storm on Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations
and earlier aircraft reconnaissance data is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area on Monday.

RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce additional rain
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches over the central and northwest
Bahamas, and generally less than 1 inch over south Florida through
tonight. The depression is also expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches over coastal North Carolina Sunday
night and Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of
the east coast of central and northern Florida. These swells are
expected to spread northward during the next few days, and could
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions across much
of the U.S. southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2020-05-16 21:38


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 162135 CCA
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012020
2100 UTC SAT MAY 16 2020

CORRECTED TROPICAL STORM WATCH END POINT TO SURF CITY IN SUMMARY

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
FROM NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK...INCLUDING PAMLICO AND
ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SURF CITY TO DUCK NC
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 78.6W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 78.6W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 78.8W

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 29.7N 78.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 31.4N 77.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 33.0N 76.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 35.2N 74.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 37.1N 72.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 38.0N 70.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 38.0N 68.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.4N 78.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 17/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

2020-05-16 21:23


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 162120 CCA
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression One Discussion Number 1...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020
500 PM EDT Sat May 16 2020

Corrected Key Message number 2

Satellite images, Doppler radar data, and surface observations
indicate that the low pressure system located just east of the coast
of central Florida has developed sufficient organization to now be
classified as a tropical depression. The low-level center is well
defined and deep convection has persisted near the center and in
bands on the east side of the circulation for the past several
hours. The cyclone is considered tropical instead of subtropical
because it has central deep convection and a relatively small radius
of maximum wind. The initial intensity is estimated to be 30 kt
based on data collected earlier today by the Air Force Hurricane
Hunters. Another aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system
this evening.

Based on satellite data and the earlier reconnaissance fixes, the
initial motion of the system is north-northeastward at 11 kt. A
continued north-northeastward motion at about the same forward speed
is expected during the next 24 hours or so, keeping the cyclone
offshore, but parallel to, the east coast of Florida. After that
time,
the model solutions begin to diverge and the details of the track
forecast become more complicated. The important features for the
future track of the depression appear to be a pair of mid- to
upper-level troughs currently over the central U.S. The specific
amplitude, timing, and location of those troughs will ultimately
result in how close to the coast of North Carolina this system gets.
The GFS and HWRF models are on the left side of the guidance and
bring the system inland or along the coast, while the ECMWF and
UKMET models show an offshore track. The NHC track forecast splits
the difference of these solutions, and lies close to the various
consensus models, which usually perform best. It should be noted
that forecast uncertainty is typically larger for weak systems like
this one.

The system should gradually strengthen during the next couple of
days as it remains over the Gulf Stream current and in relatively
low wind shear conditions. However, the surrounding air mass is not
particularly moist, so that and the marginally warm SSTs should
limit significant intensification. The NHC intensity forecast calls
for the system to become a tropical storm tonight or on Sunday with
continued slow strengthening as it nears the North Carolina coast.
Extratropical transition should occur in about 3 days, or sooner.
The NHC intensity forecast generally lies roughly near the middle of
the guidance envelope.

Key Messages:

1. A tropical storm watch has been issued for a portion of the
North Carolina coast. Tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rains
are possible there on Monday.

2. Dangerous coastal surf conditions and rip currents are expected
to spread northward from Florida to the mid-Atlantic states during
the next few days. See products from your local National Weather
Service forecast office for more details.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 28.4N 78.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 29.7N 78.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 31.4N 77.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 33.0N 76.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 35.2N 74.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 19/0600Z 37.1N 72.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 19/1800Z 38.0N 70.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 20/1800Z 38.0N 68.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2020-05-16 21:20


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 162118 CCA
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression One Advisory Number 1...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020
500 PM EDT Sat May 16 2020

Corrected Wind Hazards Section

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE COAST OF EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.4N 78.6W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM E OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA
ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the North Carolina coast
from north of Surf City to Duck, including Pamlico and
Albemarle Sounds.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* New River Inlet to Duck NC
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression One
was located near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 78.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20
km/h) and this motion should continue during the next day or so.
After that time, a faster northeastward motion is expected. On
the forecast track, the depression is expected to move offshore,
but parallel to, the coast of Florida tonight, and then move near
or east of the coast of North Carolina on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected
to become a tropical storm on Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations
and earlier aircraft reconnaissance data is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area on Monday.

RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce additional rain
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches over the central and northwest
Bahamas, and generally less than 1 inch over south Florida through
tonight. The depression is also expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches over coastal North Carolina Sunday
night and Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of
the east coast of central and northern Florida. These swells are
expected to spread northward during the next few days, and could
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions across much
of the U.S. southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2020-05-16 20:41


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 162039
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression One Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020
500 PM EDT Sat May 16 2020

Satellite images, Doppler radar data, and surface observations
indicate that the low pressure system located just east of the coast
of central Florida has developed sufficient organization to now be
classified as a tropical depression. The low-level center is well
defined and deep convection has persisted near the center and in
bands on the east side of the circulation for the past several
hours. The cyclone is considered tropical instead of subtropical
because it has central deep convection and a relatively small radius
of maximum wind. The initial intensity is estimated to be 30 kt
based on data collected earlier today by the Air Force Hurricane
Hunters. Another aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system
this evening.

Based on satellite data and the earlier reconnaissance fixes, the
initial motion of the system is north-northeastward at 11 kt. A
continued north-northeastward motion at about the same forward speed
is expected during the next 24 hours or so, keeping the cyclone
offshore, but parallel to, the east coast of Florida. After that
time,
the model solutions begin to diverge and the details of the track
forecast become more complicated. The important features for the
future track of the depression appear to be a pair of mid- to
upper-level troughs currently over the central U.S. The specific
amplitude, timing, and location of those troughs will ultimately
result in how close to the coast of North Carolina this system gets.
The GFS and HWRF models are on the left side of the guidance and
bring the system inland or along the coast, while the ECMWF and
UKMET models show an offshore track. The NHC track forecast splits
the difference of these solutions, and lies close to the various
consensus models, which usually perform best. It should be noted
that forecast uncertainty is typically larger for weak systems like
this one.

The system should gradually strengthen during the next couple of
days as it remains over the Gulf Stream current and in relatively
low wind shear conditions. However, the surrounding air mass is not
particularly moist, so that and the marginally warm SSTs should
limit significant intensification. The NHC intensity forecast calls
for the system to become a tropical storm tonight or on Sunday with
continued slow strengthening as it nears the North Carolina coast.
Extratropical transition should occur in about 3 days, or sooner.
The NHC intensity forecast generally lies roughly near the middle of
the guidance envelope.

Key Messages:

1. A tropical storm watch has been issued for a portion of the
North Carolina coast. Tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rains
are possible there on Monday.

2. Dangerous coastal surf conditions and rip currents are expected
to spread northward from Florida to the mid-Atlantic states during
the next few days. See products from your local National Weather
Service for more details.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 28.4N 78.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 29.7N 78.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 31.4N 77.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 33.0N 76.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 35.2N 74.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 19/0600Z 37.1N 72.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 19/1800Z 38.0N 70.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 20/1800Z 38.0N 68.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2020-05-16 20:41


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 162038
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression One Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020
500 PM EDT Sat May 16 2020

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE COAST OF EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.4N 78.6W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM E OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA
ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the North Carolina coast
from north of Surf City to Duck, including Pamlico and
Albemarle Sounds.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* New River Inlet to Duck NC
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression One
was located near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 78.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20
km/h) and this motion should continue during the next day or so.
After that time, a faster northeastward motion is expected. On
the forecast track, the depression is expected to move offshore,
but parallel to, the coast of Florida tonight, and then move near
or east of the coast of North Carolina on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected
to become a tropical storm on Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations
and earlier aircraft reconnaissance data is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by on Monday.

RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce additional rain
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches over the central and northwest
Bahamas, and generally less than 1 inch over south Florida through
tonight. The depression is also expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches over coastal North Carolina Sunday
night and Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of
the east coast of central and northern Florida. These swells are
expected to spread northward during the next few days, and could
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions across much
of the U.S. southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2020-05-16 20:41


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 162038
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012020
2100 UTC SAT MAY 16 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
FROM NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK...INCLUDING PAMLICO AND
ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEW RIVER INLET TO DUCK NC
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 78.6W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 78.6W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 78.8W

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 29.7N 78.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 31.4N 77.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 33.0N 76.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 35.2N 74.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 37.1N 72.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 38.0N 70.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 38.0N 68.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.4N 78.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 17/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>