Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for TWENTYONE-20
in Australia

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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2020-03-11 08:50

WTXS51 PGTW 110900
WARNING    ATCG MIL 21S SIO 200311081536
2020031106 21S TWENTYONE  001  01 185 09 SATL 015
T000 164S 1169E 035 R034 000 NE QD 050 SE QD 025 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 182S 1159E 035 R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD
T024 199S 1150E 035 R034 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD
T036 217S 1143E 035 R034 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD
T048 235S 1137E 030
AMP
    036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (TWENTYONE) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (TWENTYONE) WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   110600Z --- NEAR 16.4S 116.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 116.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z --- 18.2S 115.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z --- 19.9S 115.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z --- 21.7S 114.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z --- 23.5S 113.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 116.6E.
11MAR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (TWENTYONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 253 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z, 120300Z AND 120900Z.//
2120030818 105S1131E  15
2120030900 106S1132E  15
2120030906 108S1134E  15
2120030912 112S1138E  20
2120030918 117S1147E  20
2120031000 123S1155E  20
2120031006 130S1162E  20
2120031012 139S1168E  30
2120031018 147S1170E  30
2120031100 155S1170E  30
2120031106 164S1169E  35
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2020-03-11 08:49

WTXS31 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (TWENTYONE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/101551ZMAR2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (TWENTYONE) WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   110600Z --- NEAR 16.4S 116.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 116.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z --- 18.2S 115.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z --- 19.9S 115.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z --- 21.7S 114.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z --- 23.5S 113.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 116.6E.
11MAR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (TWENTYONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
253 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION LOCATED OVERHEAD.
AN 110616Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A CLEARLY DEFINED
LLCC WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION DIRECTLY OVER THE LLCC AND
EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS SET WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS BASED ON AN 110152Z METOP-C DIRECT ASCAT PASS
WHICH SHOWS 35 KT WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM THE EAST, PLACING
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY. MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE EVALUATED AT T1.5 (25 KTS, PGTW/KNES), LOWER
THAN THE CURRENT INTENSITY. OVERALL, TC 21S IS TRANSITING THROUGH A
MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO
MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (29-30
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). TC 21S IS TRACKING ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
UNDER ITS INFLUENCE, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. BY TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING THE NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA COAST. AT THIS POINT,
INCREASING VWS VALUES AND LAND INTERACTION WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO
WEAKEN. HOWEVER, DUE TO HIGH SST PRIOR TO LANDFALL, TC 21S IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS A MARGINAL SYSTEM UNTIL FULL DISSIPATION BY TAU
48, IF NOT SOONER. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. OF
NOTE, GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MAINTAIN A MORE WESTWARD TRACK,
KEEPING THE SYSTEM OVER WATER THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST. HOWEVER,
DUE TO THE GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MAJORITY OF THE SOLUTIONS, THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z, 120300Z AND 120900Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 101600).//
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