Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for DIANE-20
in Mauritius

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

2020-01-28 00:02

WTIO22 FMEE 272359
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 28/01/2020
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 022/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 28/01/2020 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 (EX-DIANE) 992 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 28.0 S / 70.7 E
(TWENTY EIGHT    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 400 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
SEMI-CERCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
275 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 175
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 350 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 500 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/01/28 AT 12 UTC:
29.4 S / 68.4 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2020/01/29 AT 00 UTC:
31.3 S / 66.9 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2020-01-27 18:03

WTIO22 FMEE 271758
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 27/01/2020
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 021/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 27/01/2020 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 (EX-DIANE) 992 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.8 S / 71.1 E
(TWENTY SIX    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 375 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
SEMI-CERCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
275 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 175
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 350 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 500 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/01/28 AT 06 UTC:
28.5 S / 69.5 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2020/01/28 AT 18 UTC:
30.5 S / 67.5 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2020-01-27 12:02

WTIO22 FMEE 271159
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 27/01/2020
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 020/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 27/01/2020 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 (EX-DIANE) 993 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.3 S / 71.4 E
(TWENTY SIX    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING FROM 40NM TO THE CENTER  UP TO 300 NM IN
THE SOUTH-WESTERN SEMI-CERCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 200
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 350 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 500 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/01/28 AT 00 UTC:
27.8 S / 70.7 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2020/01/28 AT 12 UTC:
29.9 S / 68.9 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2020-01-27 06:23

WTIO22 FMEE 270622 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 27/01/2020
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 019/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 27/01/2020 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 (EX-DIANE) 993 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.5 S / 71.7 E
(TWENTY FIVE    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING  UP TO 260 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
SEMI-CERCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
160 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 260 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 200
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 400 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 450 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/01/27 AT 18 UTC:
27.0 S / 71.3 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2020/01/28 AT 06 UTC:
28.6 S / 69.8 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.=

>

2020-01-27 06:20

WTIO22 FMEE 270615
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 27/01/2020
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 019/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 27/01/2020 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 (EX-DIANE) 993 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.5 S / 71.7 E
(TWENTY FIVE    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING  UP TO 260 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
SEMI-CERCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
160 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 260 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 200
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 400 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 450 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/01/27 AT 18 UTC:
27.0 S / 71.3 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2020/01/28 AT 06 UTC:
28.6 S / 69.8 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.=

>

2020-01-27 00:10

WTIO20 FMEE 270004
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 27/01/2020
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 018/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 27/01/2020 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 (EX-DIANE) 988 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.8 S / 70.5 E
(TWENTY FOUR    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING FROM 280 NM UP TO 260 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUARANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
160 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 220 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 300 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 320 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/01/27 AT 12 UTC:
25.4 S / 70.2 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2020/01/28 AT 00 UTC:
27.3 S / 69.2 E, MAX WIND = 0 , POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.=

>

2020-01-26 18:11

WTIO22 FMEE 261807
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 26/01/2020
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 017/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 26/01/2020 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 (EX-DIANE) 985 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.1 S / 70.5 E
(TWENTY FIVE    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 260 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUARANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
150 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 200
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/01/27 AT 06 UTC:
24.8 S / 70.2 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2020/01/27 AT 18 UTC:
26.4 S / 69.5 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2020-01-26 12:22

WTIO20 FMEE 261218
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 26/01/2020
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 016/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 26/01/2020 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 (EX-DIANE) 985 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.5 S / 69.2 E
(TWENTY FOUR    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-NORTH-EAST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 175 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 350 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/01/27 AT 00 UTC:
24.2 S / 69.8 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2020/01/27 AT 12 UTC:
25.2 S / 69.9 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2020-01-26 06:37

WTIO31 FMEE 260613 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/6/20192020
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 6 (DIANE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 26/01/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 24.3 S / 67.5 E
(VINGT QUATRE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE SEPT DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 15 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 980 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 320 SE: 650 SO: 650 NO: 170
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 240 SO: 240 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 26/01/2020 18 UTC: 24.4 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 27/01/2020 06 UTC: 24.6 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 27/01/2020 18 UTC: 25.9 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 28/01/2020 06 UTC: 27.6 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 28/01/2020 18 UTC: 29.8 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 29/01/2020 06 UTC: 31.2 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 30/01/2020 06 UTC: 37.8 S / 66.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 31/01/2020 06 UTC: 46.5 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0/CI=3.5

>

2020-01-26 06:37

WTIO30 FMEE 260613 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/6/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DIANE)

2.A POSITION 2020/01/26 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.3 S / 67.5 E
(TWENTY FOUR    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 320 SE: 650 SW: 650 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/01/26 18 UTC: 24.4 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/01/27 06 UTC: 24.6 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2020/01/27 18 UTC: 25.9 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2020/01/28 06 UTC: 27.6 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2020/01/28 18 UTC: 29.8 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2020/01/29 06 UTC: 31.2 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/01/30 06 UTC: 37.8 S / 66.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2020/01/31 06 UTC: 46.5 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0/CI=3.5

>

2020-01-26 06:34

WTIO31 FMEE 260613
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/6/20192020
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 6 (DIANE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 26/01/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 24.3 S / 67.5 E
(VINGT QUATRE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE SEPT DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 15 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 980 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 320 SE: 650 SO: 650 NO: 170
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 240 SO: 240 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 26/01/2020 18 UTC: 24.4 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 27/01/2020 06 UTC: 24.6 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 27/01/2020 18 UTC: 25.9 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 28/01/2020 06 UTC: 27.6 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 28/01/2020 18 UTC: 29.8 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 29/01/2020 06 UTC: 31.2 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 30/01/2020 06 UTC: 37.8 S / 66.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 31/01/2020 06 UTC: 46.5 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0/CI=3.5

AU COURS DES DERNIA RES 6 HEURES, LA CONVECTION EST RESTEE FORTE AU
SEIN D'UN CDO ASSEZ BIEN CONSTITUE. CEPENDANT, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE
TEND A SE DECALER VERS LE SUD-EST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DU CISAILLEMENT DE
SECTEUR NORD-OUEST (ESTIME A 20KT PAR LE CIMSS). LA LOCALISATION DU
CENTRE EN EST RENDUE RELATIVEMENT INCERTAINE, MEME SI LA PASSE
ASCAT-A DE 0330Z SUGGERE EGALEMENT UN CERTAIN DECALAGE ENTRE LE
MAXIMUM DE CONVECTION ET LE CENTRE DE CIRCULATION DE SURFACE.
L'ESTIMATION D'INTENSITE EST BASEE SUR L'ESTIMATION DVORAK, EN ACCORD
AVEC LES DONNEES OBJECTIVES DISPONIBLES.

LES CONDITIONS SYNOPTIQUES QUI REGISSENT LA TRAJECTOIRE DE DIANE
N'EVOLUENT PAS : DIANE POURSUIT SA COURSE VERS LE SUD-EST EMPORTEE
DANS LE FLUX DE SECTEUR OUEST PREVALANT EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. CE
SOIR, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT RALENTIR ET REDRESSER TEMPORAIREMENT SA
TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'EST EN BUTANT SUR UNE CELLULE DE HAUT-GEOPOTENTIEL
QUI PASSE AU SUD. LUNDI, AVEC LE DECALAGE DU HAUT GEOPOTENTIEL, LE
SYSTEME DEVRAIT RECOMMENCER A SE DEPLACER VERS LE SUD PUIS VERS LE
SUD-OUEST, ENTAMANT SON EVACUATION VERS LES LATITUDES TEMPEREES. LES
MODELES SONT PLUTOT EN BON ACCORD SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE BIEN QUE LA
VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT PEUT VARIER ENTRE LES MODELES, INDUISANT DES
DIFFERENCES DE TIMING ("ALONG-TRACK").

DIANE EVOLUE A PROXIMITA  NORD DU JET SUBTROPICAL ET SUBIT UN
CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT MODERE DE NORD-OUEST. A PARTIR
D'AUJOURD'HUI, AVEC LE RALENTISSEMENT PRA VU, DIANE DEVRAIT SUBIR UNE
HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT RELATIF, CE QUI VA LANCER DEFINITIVEMENT
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME.
LUNDI, SOUS UN FORT CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE NORD-OUEST, AVEC UN
THALWEG D'ALTITUDE A PROXIMITE OUEST, UNE INTRUSION D'AIR SEC
IMPORTANTE EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE ET AVEC LA DISPARITION DU POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE AU SUD DE 25S, DIANE DEVRAIT DEVENIR UN SYSTEME
POST-TROPICAL. LES PROCESSUS BAROCLINES AINSI QUE LE FORT GRADIENT DE
PRESSION ENTRE LE COEUR DU SYSTEME ET L'ANTICYCLONE SUBTROPICAL
DEVRAIENT CEPENDANT PERMETTRE A DIANE DE GARDER DES VENTS FORTS SUR
LA PERIODE.=

>

2020-01-26 06:34

WTIO30 FMEE 260613
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/6/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DIANE)

2.A POSITION 2020/01/26 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.3 S / 67.5 E
(TWENTY FOUR    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 320 SE: 650 SW: 650 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/01/26 18 UTC: 24.4 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/01/27 06 UTC: 24.6 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2020/01/27 18 UTC: 25.9 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2020/01/28 06 UTC: 27.6 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2020/01/28 18 UTC: 29.8 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2020/01/29 06 UTC: 31.2 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/01/30 06 UTC: 37.8 S / 66.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2020/01/31 06 UTC: 46.5 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0/CI=3.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION REMAINED STRONG WITHIN A RATHER
WELL-DEFINED CDO. HOWEVER, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TENDS TO DRIFTS
SOUTHEASTWARDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NORTH-WESTERLY VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR (ESTIMATED AT 20KT BY CIMSS). LOCALISATION OF THE CENTER IS
THUS RATHER UNCERTAIN, EVEN IF THE 0330Z ASCAT-A SWATH ALSO SUGGEST A
CERTAIN SHIFT BETWEEN THE MAX OF CONVECTION AND THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION CENTER. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATE, IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE DATA.

NO MAJOR CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST : DIANE KEEPS ON RACING
SOUTH-EASTWARDS STEERED BY THE WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS.
TONIGHT, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AND TEMPORARILY TURN
EASTWARDS AS IT BUMPS INTO A HIGH PRESSURE CELL CIRCULATING IN THE
MID-LATITUDES. MONDAY, WITH THE SHIFT OF THE HIGH, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
BEGIN TO TRACK SOUTHWARD THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS, EVACUATING TOWARDS THE
MID-LATITUDES. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THIS
SCENARIO, ALTHOUGH THE FORECASTED SPEED OF MOTION VARIES FROM ONE
MODEL TO AN OTHER, INDUCING TIMING DIFFERENCES (ALONG-TRACK
DIFFERENCES).

DIANE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET AND IS UNDERGOING A
MODERATE NORTH-WESTWARD VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. FROM THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
THE FORECASTED SLOWING, DIANE SHOULD BE SUBJECTED TO A STRENGTHENING
RELATIVE WINDSHEAR, WHICH SHOULD DEFINITELY LAUNCH THE WEAKENING OF
THE SYSTEM.
MONDAY, UNDER A STRONG NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR, WITH AN UPPER TROUGH IN
THE WEST, A MASSIVE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION AND NO MORE OCEANIC
HEAT POTENTIAL, DIANE SHOULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM.
BAROCLINIC PROCESSES AND THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
SYSTEM'S CORE AND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH SHOULD ALLOW DIANE TO KEEP
STRONG WINDS OVER THE WHOLE FORECASTING PERIOD.=

>

2020-01-26 06:10

WTIO20 FMEE 260606
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 26/01/2020
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 015/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 26/01/2020 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DIANE) 980 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.3 S / 67.5 E
(TWENTY FOUR    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 15 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO
150 MN IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 175 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 350 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/01/26 AT 18 UTC:
24.4 S / 68.6 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2020/01/27 AT 06 UTC:
24.6 S / 69.5 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2020-01-26 00:16

WTIO31 FMEE 260011 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/6/20192020
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 6 (DIANE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 26/01/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.0 S / 65.5 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE CINQ DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 18 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 987 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 130 SO: 300 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 90 SO: 220 NO: 150


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 26/01/2020 12 UTC: 24.0 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 27/01/2020 00 UTC: 24.1 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 27/01/2020 12 UTC: 25.8 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 28/01/2020 00 UTC: 26.7 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 28/01/2020 12 UTC: 28.2 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 29/01/2020 00 UTC: 29.8 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 30/01/2020 00 UTC: 35.4 S / 66.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
120H: 31/01/2020 00 UTC: 42.4 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5

>

2020-01-26 00:16

WTIO30 FMEE 260011 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/6/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DIANE)

2.A POSITION 2020/01/26 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.0 S / 65.5 E
(TWENTY THREE    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FIVE    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 18 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 130 SW: 300 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 90 SW: 220 NW: 150


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/01/26 12 UTC: 24.0 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/01/27 00 UTC: 24.1 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/01/27 12 UTC: 25.8 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2020/01/28 00 UTC: 26.7 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2020/01/28 12 UTC: 28.2 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2020/01/29 00 UTC: 29.8 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/01/30 00 UTC: 35.4 S / 66.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
120H: 2020/01/31 00 UTC: 42.4 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING
UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

>

2020-01-26 00:14

WTIO20 FMEE 260010
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 26/01/2020
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 26/01/2020 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DIANE) 987 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.0 S / 65.5 E
(TWENTY THREE    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FIVE    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 18 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN 120 MN RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO
200 MN IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTOR.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A  NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/01/26 AT 12 UTC:
24.0 S / 67.9 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2020/01/27 AT 00 UTC:
24.1 S / 69.5 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2020-01-26 00:13

WTIO31 FMEE 260011
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/6/20192020
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 6 (DIANE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 26/01/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.0 S / 65.5 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE CINQ DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 18 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 987 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 130 SO: 300 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 90 SO: 220 NO: 150


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 26/01/2020 12 UTC: 24.0 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 27/01/2020 00 UTC: 24.1 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 27/01/2020 12 UTC: 25.8 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 28/01/2020 00 UTC: 26.7 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 28/01/2020 12 UTC: 28.2 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 29/01/2020 00 UTC: 29.8 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 30/01/2020 00 UTC: 35.4 S / 66.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
120H: 31/01/2020 00 UTC: 42.4 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5

AU COURS DES DERNIA RES 6 HEURES, LA CONVECTION PROFONDE EST RESTEE
FORTE AU SEIN D'UN CDO AUX SOMMETS TRA S FROIDS. EN CONSEQUENCE DIANE
EST ELEVEE AU STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE. CETTE ESTIMATION
D'INTENSITE EST CONFORME A L'ADT DU CIMSS. CEPENDANT LA CONVECTION
COMMENCE A SE DA CALER DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST SIGNE QUE LE
CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST (ESTIMEE A 19 KT A 18Z PAR LE CIMMS)
COMMENCE A SE FAIRE RESSENTIR MALGRE SA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT.

LES CONDITIONS SYNOPTIQUES QUI REGISSENT LA TRAJECTOIRE DE DIANE
N'EVOLUENT PAS : DIANE POURSUIT SA COURSE VERS L'EST-SUD-EST EMPORTEE
DANS LE FLUX D'OUEST PREVALANT EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. DANS LA NUIT
DE DIMANCHE A LUNDI, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT RALENTIR ET REDRESSER
TEMPORAIREMENT SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'EST OU LE EST-NORD-EST AVEC LE
PASSAGE DANS LE SUD D'UNE CELLULE DE HAUT-GEOPOTENTIEL. LUNDI, AVEC
LE DECALAGE DU HAUT GEOPOTENTIEL, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT RECOURBER
PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS LE SUD PUIS VERS LE SUD-OUEST ENTAMANT SON
EVACUATION VERS LES LATITUDES TEMPEREES. LES MODELES SONT PLUTOT EN
BON ACCORD SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE BIEN QUE LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT
PEUT VARIER ENTRE LES MODELES, INDUISANT UN RECOURBEMENT PLUS OU
MOINS TOT.

DIANE EVOLUE A PROXIMITA  DU JET SUBTROPICAL ET SUBIT UN CISAILLEMENT
VERTICAL DE VENT MODERE DE NORD-OUEST. MAIS SA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT
DANS LE SENS DU CISAILLEMENT LUI PERMET D'ATTENUER CES EFFETS
NEFASTES. AUJOURD'HUI PUIS LA NUIT SUIVANTE, AVEC LE RALENTISSEMENT
PRA VU SYSTEME ET LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT, LE SYTEME DEVRAIT
S'AFFAIBLIR. LUNDI, AVEC UN FORT CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE NORD-OUEST
ET UNE INTRUSION D'AIR SEC IMPORTANTE EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, DIANE
DEVRAIT EVOLUA E VERS UN SYSTEME POST-TROPICAL.=

>

2020-01-26 00:13

WTIO30 FMEE 260011
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/6/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DIANE)

2.A POSITION 2020/01/26 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.0 S / 65.5 E
(TWENTY THREE    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FIVE    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 18 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 130 SW: 300 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 90 SW: 220 NW: 150


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/01/26 12 UTC: 24.0 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/01/27 00 UTC: 24.1 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/01/27 12 UTC: 25.8 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2020/01/28 00 UTC: 26.7 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2020/01/28 12 UTC: 28.2 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2020/01/29 00 UTC: 29.8 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/01/30 00 UTC: 35.4 S / 66.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
120H: 2020/01/31 00 UTC: 42.4 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING
UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, DEEP CONVECTION HAS REMAINED STRONG WITHIN A
VERY COLD TOP CDO. CONSEQUENTLY DIANE IS RAISED TO THE STAGE OF
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM. THIS ASSESSMENT OF INTENSITY CONFORM TO THE
ADT OF CIMSS. HOWEVER THE CONVECTION BEGINS TO SHIFT IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT SIGN THAT THE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR (ESTIMATED AT
19 KT AT 18Z BY CIMMS) BEGINS TO FEEL.

THE SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS GOVERNING DIANE'S TRACK ARE NOT CHANGING:
DIANE CONTINUE ITS TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD CARRIED ALONG IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILING IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE. FROM 24H TO 36H,
DURING THE NIGHT FROM SUNDAY TO MONDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN
AND TEMPORARILY STRAIGHTEN ITS TRACK TOWARDS THE EAST OR
EAST-NORTH-EAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF A HIGH-GEOPOTENTIAL CELL TO THE
SOUTH. ON MONDAY, WITH THE SHIFT OF THE UPPER GEOPOTENTIAL, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY CURL SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST, BEGINNING ITS
EVACUATION TOWARDS MID-LATITUDES. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS TRACK ALTHOUGH THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT MAY VARY BETWEEN MODELS,
INDUCING BENDING MORE OR LESS EARLY.

DIANE EVOLVES NEAR THE SUBTROPICAL JET AND EXPERIENCES  A VERTICAL
NORTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR EVALUATED AT 14 KT AT 12Z BY THE CIMSS. BUT
ITS SPEED OF MOVEMENT IN THE SENSE OF SHEAR ALLOWS TO ATTENUATE THESE
HARMFUL EFFECTS. TODAY AND NEXT NIGHT, WITH THE EXPECTED SLOWING DOWN
AND THE INCREASING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO
WEAKEN. MONDAY, WITH A STRONG NORTHWEST VERTICAL SHEAR AND A STRONG
DRY AIR INTRUSION IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE, DIANE SHOULD EVOLVE TO A
POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM.=

>

2020-01-25 18:33

WTIO31 FMEE 251830 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/6/20192020
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6 (DIANE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 25/01/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.1 S / 63.8 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE TROIS DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 17 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 988 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 130 SO: 300 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 90 SO: 220 NO: 150


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 26/01/2020 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 26/01/2020 18 UTC: 23.6 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 27/01/2020 06 UTC: 24.0 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 27/01/2020 18 UTC: 25.4 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 28/01/2020 06 UTC: 27.3 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 28/01/2020 18 UTC: 29.7 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 29/01/2020 18 UTC: 34.2 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
120H: 30/01/2020 18 UTC: 40.7 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5-

>

2020-01-25 18:33

WTIO30 FMEE 251830 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/6/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DIANE)

2.A POSITION 2020/01/25 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.1 S / 63.8 E
(TWENTY TWO    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 17 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 130 SW: 300 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 90 SW: 220 NW: 150


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/01/26 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/01/26 18 UTC: 23.6 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/01/27 06 UTC: 24.0 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2020/01/27 18 UTC: 25.4 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2020/01/28 06 UTC: 27.3 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2020/01/28 18 UTC: 29.7 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/01/29 18 UTC: 34.2 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
120H: 2020/01/30 18 UTC: 40.7 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-

>

2020-01-25 18:30

WTIO31 FMEE 251830
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/6/20192020
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6 (DIANE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 25/01/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.1 S / 63.8 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE TROIS DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 17 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 988 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 130 SO: 300 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 90 SO: 220 NO: 150


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 26/01/2020 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 26/01/2020 18 UTC: 23.6 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 27/01/2020 06 UTC: 24.0 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 27/01/2020 18 UTC: 25.4 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 28/01/2020 06 UTC: 27.3 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 28/01/2020 18 UTC: 29.7 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 29/01/2020 18 UTC: 34.2 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
120H: 30/01/2020 18 UTC: 40.7 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5-

AU COUR DES DERNIA RES 6 HEURES, LA CONVECTION S'EST BIEN RENFORCA E
NOTAMMENT DANS LE QUADRANT SUD DE LA CIRCULATION. MALGRE
L'AMELIORATION DE LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE, LA DERNIERE PASSE ASCAT
MONTRE DES VENTS MAXIMAUX DA PASSANT A PEINE 40 KT. DE PLUS, LA PASSE
AMSUB 89 GHZ DE 1339Z MONTRE SEULEMENT UN ANNEAU DE CONVECTION PEU
INTENSE. AUSSI DIANA RESTE A LA LIMITE SUPERIEUR DU STADE DE TEMPETE
AVEC UNE INTENSITE ESTIMA E A 45 KT.

LES CONDITIONS SYNOPTIQUES QUI REGISSENT LA TRAJECTOIRE DE DIANE
N'EVOLUENT PAS : DIANE POURSUIT SA COURSE VERS L'EST-SUD-EST EMPORTEE
DANS LE FLUX D'OUEST PREVALANT EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. DANS LA NUIT
DE DIMANCHE A LUNDI, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT RALENTIR ET REDRESSER
TEMPORAIREMENT SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'EST OU LE EST-NORD-EST AVEC LE
PASSAGE DANS LE SUD D'UNE CELLULE DE HAUT-GEOPOTENTIEL. LUNDI, AVEC
LE DECALAGE DU HAUT GEOPOTENTIEL, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT RECOURBER
PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS LE SUD PUIS VERS LE SUD-OUEST ENTAMANT SON
EVACUATION VERS LES LATITUDES TEMPEREES. LES MODELES SONT PLUTOT EN
BON ACCORD SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE BIEN QUE LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT
PEUT VARIER ENTRE LES MODELES, INDUISANT UN RECOURBEMENT PLUS OU
MOINS TOT.

DIANE EVOLUE A PROXIMITA  DU JET SUBTROPICAL ET SUBIT UN CISAILLEMENT
VERTICAL DE VENT DE NORD-OUEST EVALUE A  14 KT A  12Z PAR LE CIMSS.
MAIS SA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT DANS LE SENS DU CISAILLEMENT PERMET
D'ATTENUER CES EFFETS NEFASTES. DEMAIN PUIS LA NUIT SUIANTE, AVEC LE
RALENTISSEMENT DU SYSTEME ET LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT, LE SYTEME
DEVRAIT S'AFFAIBLIR. LUNDI, AVEC UN FORT CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE
NORD-OUEST ET UNE INTRUSION D'AIR SEC IMPORTANTE EN MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE, DIANE DEVRAIT EVOLUA E VERS UN SYSTEME POST-TROPICAL.=

>

2020-01-25 18:30

WTIO30 FMEE 251830
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/6/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DIANE)

2.A POSITION 2020/01/25 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.1 S / 63.8 E
(TWENTY TWO    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 17 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 130 SW: 300 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 90 SW: 220 NW: 150


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/01/26 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/01/26 18 UTC: 23.6 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/01/27 06 UTC: 24.0 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2020/01/27 18 UTC: 25.4 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2020/01/28 06 UTC: 27.3 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2020/01/28 18 UTC: 29.7 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/01/29 18 UTC: 34.2 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
120H: 2020/01/30 18 UTC: 40.7 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION WAS WELL STRENGTHENED, ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT. DESPITE THE IMPROVED CLOUD PATTERN, THE
LAST ASCAT SWATH SHOWS MAXIMUM WINDS ABOUT 40 KT. IN ADDITION, THE
AMSUB 89 GHZ 1339Z PASS SHOWS ONLY A LITTLE INTENSE CONVECTION RING.
ALSO DIANA STAYS AT THE HIGHER LIMIT OF THE STORM SATDE WITH AN
INTENSITY ESTIMATED AT 45 KT.

THE SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS GOVERNING DIANE'S TRACK ARE NOT CHANGING:
DIANE CONTINUE ITS TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD CARRIED ALONG IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILING IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE. FROM 24H TO 36H,
DURING THE NIGHT FROM SUNDAY TO MONDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN
AND TEMPORARILY STRAIGHTEN ITS TRACK TOWARDS THE EAST OR
EAST-NORTH-EAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF A HIGH-GEOPOTENTIAL CELL TO THE
SOUTH. ON MONDAY, WITH THE SHIFT OF THE UPPER GEOPOTENTIAL, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY CURL SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST, BEGINNING ITS
EVACUATION TOWARDS MID-LATITUDES. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS TRACK ALTHOUGH THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT MAY VARY BETWEEN MODELS,
INDUCING BENDING MORE OR LESS EARLY.

DIANE EVOLVES NEAR THE SUBTROPICAL JET AND EXPERIENCES  A VERTICAL
NORTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR EVALUATED AT 14 KT AT 12Z BY THE CIMSS. BUT
ITS SPEED OF MOVEMENT IN THE SENSE OF SHEAR ALLOWS TO ATTENUATE THESE
HARMFUL EFFECTS. TOMORROW AND NEXT NIGHT, WITH THE SLOWING DOWN OF
THE SYSTEM AND THE INCREASING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR THE SYSTEM SHOULD
WEAKEN. MONDAY, WITH A STRONG NORTHWEST VERTICAL SHEAR AND A STRONG
DRY AIR INTRUSION IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE, DIANE SHOULD EVOLVE TO A
POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM.=

>

2020-01-25 18:13

WTIO20 FMEE 251812
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 25/01/2020
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 25/01/2020 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DIANE) 988 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.1 S / 63.8 E
(TWENTY TWO    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 17 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN 130 MN RADIUS FROM THE CENTER

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/01/26 AT 06 UTC:
23.8 S / 66.7 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2020/01/26 AT 18 UTC:
23.6 S / 68.6 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2020-01-25 12:28

WTIO31 FMEE 251222 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/6/20192020
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6 (DIANE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 25/01/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.5 S / 61.7 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE UN DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 16 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 991 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 74 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 190
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 70


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 26/01/2020 00 UTC: 23.3 S / 65.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 26/01/2020 12 UTC: 23.9 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 27/01/2020 00 UTC: 23.7 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 27/01/2020 12 UTC: 24.3 S / 70.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 28/01/2020 00 UTC: 25.9 S / 70.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 28/01/2020 12 UTC: 28.2 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 29/01/2020 12 UTC: 32.0 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
120H: 30/01/2020 12 UTC: 37.2 S / 67.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0+

>

2020-01-25 12:28

WTIO30 FMEE 251222 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/6/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DIANE)

2.A POSITION 2020/01/25 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.5 S / 61.7 E
(TWENTY ONE    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 16 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 991 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 74 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 70


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/01/26 00 UTC: 23.3 S / 65.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/01/26 12 UTC: 23.9 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/01/27 00 UTC: 23.7 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2020/01/27 12 UTC: 24.3 S / 70.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2020/01/28 00 UTC: 25.9 S / 70.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2020/01/28 12 UTC: 28.2 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/01/29 12 UTC: 32.0 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
120H: 2020/01/30 12 UTC: 37.2 S / 67.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0+

>

2020-01-25 12:25

WTIO31 FMEE 251222
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/6/20192020
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6 (DIANE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 25/01/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.5 S / 61.7 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE UN DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 16 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 991 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 74 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 190
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 70


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 26/01/2020 00 UTC: 23.3 S / 65.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 26/01/2020 12 UTC: 23.9 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 27/01/2020 00 UTC: 23.7 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 27/01/2020 12 UTC: 24.3 S / 70.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 28/01/2020 00 UTC: 25.9 S / 70.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 28/01/2020 12 UTC: 28.2 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 29/01/2020 12 UTC: 32.0 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
120H: 30/01/2020 12 UTC: 37.2 S / 67.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0+

MALGRE UN CENTRE ESTIME EN BORDURE DE LA MASSE NUAGEUSE, LA
CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE DIANE RESTE EN CDO AVEC UNE ACTIVITE
CONVECTIVE QUI S'EST INTENSIFIE AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES.
AUCUNES NOUVELLES DONNEES NE PERMETTENT D'ESTIMER UNE INTENSIFICATION
DU SYSTEME. L'ANALYSE DVORAK LAISSE DONC UNE ESTIMATION DE 40KT POUR
LES VENTS.

LES CONDITIONS SYNOPTIQUES QUI REGISSENT LA TRAJECTOIRE DE DIANE
N'EVOLUENT PAS : DIANE POURSUIT SA COURSE VERS L'EST-SUD-EST EMPORTEE
DANS LE FLUX D'OUEST PREVALANT EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. A ECHEANCE DE
24H A 36H, C'EST-A-DIRE DANS LA NUIT DE DIMANCHE A LUNDI, LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT RALENTIR ET REDRESSER TEMPORAIREMENT SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS
L'EST OU LE EST-NORD-EST AVEC LE PASSAGE DANS LE SUD D'UNE CELLULE DE
HAUT-GEOPOTENTIEL. LUNDI, AVEC LE DECALAGE DU HAUT GEOPOTENTIEL, LE
SYSTEME DEVRAIT RECOURBER PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS LE SUD PUIS VERS LE
SUD-OUEST ENTAMANT SON EVACUATION VERS LES LATITUDES TEMPEREES. LES
MODELES SONT PLUTOT EN BON ACCORD SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE BIEN QUE LA
VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT PEUT VARIER ENTRE LES MODELES, INDUISANT UN
RECOURBEMENT PLUS OU MOINS TOT.

SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT CONNAITRE UN ENVIRONNEMENT
D'ALTITUDE PLUTOT FAVORABLE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 18H-24H AVEC UNE
BAISSE DE LA CONTRAINTE D'EST TOUT EN RESTANT EN MARGE DU
CISAILLEMENT DE VENT PRESENT AU SUD. CES CONDITIONS DEVRAIENT
PERMETTRE A DIANE D'ATTEINDRE LE SEUIL DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE AU
PLUS TARD DEMAIN EN FIN DE JOURNEE. PAR LA SUITE, LE CISAILLEMENT
VERTICAL DE NORD-OUEST ASSOCIE A UNE INTRUSION D'AIR SEC IMPORTANTE
EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE DEVRAIT CONDUIRE A UNE TRANSITION VERS UN
SYSTEME POST-TROPICAL ET LIMITER SON INTENSITE.

SELON CETTE TRAJECTOIRE ET ETANT DONNE QUE LA CONVECTION LA PLUS
IMPORTANTE SE SITUE DANS LE SECTEUR NORD DE DIANE, L'ILE RODRIGUES
POURRAIT ETRE CONCERNEE PAR DES AVERSES ORAGEUSES NOTABLES. LES
HABITANTS DE CETTE ILE SONT INVITES A SE TENIR AU COURANT DE LA
SITUATION.=

>

2020-01-25 12:25

WTIO30 FMEE 251222
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/6/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DIANE)

2.A POSITION 2020/01/25 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.5 S / 61.7 E
(TWENTY ONE    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 16 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 991 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 74 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 70


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/01/26 00 UTC: 23.3 S / 65.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/01/26 12 UTC: 23.9 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/01/27 00 UTC: 23.7 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2020/01/27 12 UTC: 24.3 S / 70.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2020/01/28 00 UTC: 25.9 S / 70.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2020/01/28 12 UTC: 28.2 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/01/29 12 UTC: 32.0 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
120H: 2020/01/30 12 UTC: 37.2 S / 67.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0+

DESPITE AN ESTIMATED CENTER AT THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD MASS, DIANE'S
CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS IN CDO WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT HAS
INTENSIFIED OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. THERE ARE NO NEW DATA TO ESTIMATE
AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. THE DVORAK ANALYSIS THEREFORE
LEAVES AN ESTIMATE OF 40KT.

THE SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS GOVERNING DIANE'S TRACK ARE NOT CHANGING:
DIANE CONTINUE ITS TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD CARRIED ALONG IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILING IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE. FROM 24H TO 36H,
DURING THE NIGHT FROM SUNDAY TO MONDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN
AND TEMPORARILY STRAIGHTEN ITS TRACK TOWARDS THE EAST OR
EAST-NORTH-EAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF A HIGH-GEOPOTENTIAL CELL TO THE
SOUTH. ON MONDAY, WITH THE SHIFT OF THE UPPER GEOPOTENTIAL, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY CURL SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST, BEGINNING ITS
EVACUATION TOWARDS MID-LATITUDES. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS TRACK ALTHOUGH THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT MAY VARY BETWEEN MODELS,
INDUCING BENDING MORE OR LESS EARLY.

ON THIS TRACK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BENEFIT FROM ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS THAT APPEAR RATHER FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS
WITH A DECREASING SHEAR AND JUST AWAY FROM THE WESTERLY SHEAR PRESENT
TO THE SOUTH. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW DIANE TO REACH THE
THRESHOLD OF A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LATEST TOMORROW, AT THE END OF
THE DAY. THEREAFTER, THE NORTHWESTERN VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH
A SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR INTRUSION IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE SHOULD LEAD
TO A POST-TROPICAL TRANSITION AND LIMIT ITS INTENSITY.

ACCORDING TO THIS TRACK AND GIVEN THAT THE MOST IMPORTANT CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR OF DIANE, RODRIGUES ISLAND
COULD BE CONCERNED BY NOTABLE THUNDER SHOWERS. THE INHABITANTS OF
THIS ISLAND ARE INVITED TO KEEP THEMSELVES INFORMED OF THE SITUATION.=

>

2020-01-25 12:13

WTIO20 FMEE 251204
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 25/01/2020
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 25/01/2020 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DIANE) 991 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.5 S / 61.7 E
(TWENTY ONE    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 16 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
40 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 55 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/01/26 AT 00 UTC:
23.3 S / 65.2 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2020/01/26 AT 12 UTC:
23.9 S / 67.4 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2020-01-25 06:55

WTIO31 FMEE 250623 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/6/20192020
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6 (DIANE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 25/01/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.9 S / 60.2 E
(VINGT DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 16 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 992 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 74 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 190
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 70


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 25/01/2020 18 UTC: 22.6 S / 63.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 26/01/2020 06 UTC: 23.9 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 26/01/2020 18 UTC: 24.0 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 27/01/2020 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 27/01/2020 18 UTC: 24.9 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 28/01/2020 06 UTC: 26.9 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 29/01/2020 06 UTC: 31.2 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
120H: 30/01/2020 06 UTC: 35.9 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0

>

2020-01-25 06:55

WTIO30 FMEE 250623 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/6/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DIANE)

2.A POSITION 2020/01/25 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.9 S / 60.2 E
(TWENTY    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 16 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 74 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 70


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/01/25 18 UTC: 22.6 S / 63.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/01/26 06 UTC: 23.9 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/01/26 18 UTC: 24.0 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2020/01/27 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2020/01/27 18 UTC: 24.9 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2020/01/28 06 UTC: 26.9 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/01/29 06 UTC: 31.2 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
120H: 2020/01/30 06 UTC: 35.9 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0

>

2020-01-25 06:52

WTIO31 FMEE 250623
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/6/20192020
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6 (DIANE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 25/01/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.9 S / 60.2 E
(VINGT DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 16 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 992 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 74 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 190
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 70


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 25/01/2020 18 UTC: 22.6 S / 63.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 26/01/2020 06 UTC: 23.9 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 26/01/2020 18 UTC: 24.0 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 27/01/2020 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 27/01/2020 18 UTC: 24.9 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 28/01/2020 06 UTC: 26.9 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 29/01/2020 06 UTC: 31.2 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
120H: 30/01/2020 06 UTC: 35.9 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE LA
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODERE DIANE RESTE EN CDO AVEC AU COURS DES
DERNIERS INSTANTS UNE DIMINUTION DE L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE. LA PASSE
PARTIELLE ASCAT DE 0401UTC PERMET DE MESURER DES VALEURS DE VENTS DE
35KT DANS LE SECTEUR NORD-EST MAIS ELLES PEUVENT ETRE ESTIMEES A 40KT
DANS LA PARTIE NORD, VALIDANT L'ANALYSE DE DVORAK DE 3.0

LES CONDITIONS SYNOPTIQUES QUI REGISSENT LA TRAJECTOIRE DE DIANE
N'EVOLUENT PAS : DIANE DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE SA COURSE VERS
L'EST-SUD-EST EMPORTEE DANS LE FLUX D'OUEST PREVALANT EN MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE. DANS LA NUIT DE DIMANCHE A LUNDI, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
RALENTIR ET REDRESSER TEMPORAIREMENT SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'EST OU LE
NORD-EST AVEC LE PASSAGE DANS LE SUD D'UNE CELLULE DE
HAUT-GEOPOTENTIEL. LUNDI, AVEC LE DECALAGE DU HAUT GA OPOTENTIEL, LE
SYSTEME DEVRAIT RECOURBER PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS LE SUD PUIS VERS LE
SUD-OUEST ENTAMANT SON EVACUATION VERS LES LATITUDES TEMPEREES. LES
MODELES SONT PLUTOT EN BON ACCORD SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE BIEN QUE LA
VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT PEUT VARIER ENTRE LES MODELES.

SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT CONNAITRE UN ENVIRONNEMENT
D'ALTITUDE PLUTOT FAVORABLE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24H AVEC UNE
BAISSE DE LA CONTRAINTE D'EST TOUT EN RESTANT EN MARGE DU
CISAILLEMENT DE VENT PRESENT AU SUD. CES CONDITIONS DEVERAIENT
PERMETTRE A DIANE D'ATTEINDRE LE SEUIL DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE A
ECHEANCE DE DIMANCHE. PAR LA SUITE, LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE
NORD-OUEST ASSOCIE A UNE INTRUSION D'AIR SEC IMPORTANTE EN MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE DEVRAIT CONDUIRE A UNE TRANSITION VERS UN SYSTEME
POST-TROPICAL ET LIMITE SON INTENSITE.

DIANE S'ELOIGNANT DE L'ILE MAURICE, LES CONDITIONS DEGRADEES
DIRECTEMENT EN LIEN AVEC LE SYSTEME S'ESTOMPENT.=

>

2020-01-25 06:52

WTIO30 FMEE 250623
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/6/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DIANE)

2.A POSITION 2020/01/25 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.9 S / 60.2 E
(TWENTY    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 16 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 74 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 70


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/01/25 18 UTC: 22.6 S / 63.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/01/26 06 UTC: 23.9 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/01/26 18 UTC: 24.0 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2020/01/27 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2020/01/27 18 UTC: 24.9 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2020/01/28 06 UTC: 26.9 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/01/29 06 UTC: 31.2 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
120H: 2020/01/30 06 UTC: 35.9 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN OF MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
DIANE REMAINS IN CDO WITH A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURING
THE LAST FEW MOMENTS. THE PARTIAL ASCAT SWATH OF 0401UTC ALLOWS TO
MEASURE WIND VALUES OF 35KT IN THE NORTHEAST SECTOR BUT THEY CAN BE
ESTIMATED AT 40KT IN THE NORTHERN PART, VALIDATING THE DVORAK
ANALYSIS OF 3.0

THE SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS GOVERNING DIANE'S TRACK ARE NOT CHANGING:
DIANE SHOULD CONTINUE ITS TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD CARRIED ALONG IN
THE WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILING IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE. DURING THE
NIGHT FROM SUNDAY TO MONDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND
TEMPORARILY STRAIGHTEN ITS TRACK TOWARDS THE EAST OR NORTH-EAST WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A HIGH-GEOPOTENTIAL CELL TO THE SOUTH. ON MONDAY, WITH
THE SHIFT OF THE UPPER GEOPOTENTIAL, THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY CURL
SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST, BEGINNING ITS EVACUATION TOWARDS
MID-LATITUDES. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS TRACK
ALTHOUGH THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT MAY VARY BETWEEN MODELS.

ON THIS TRACK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BENEFIT FROM ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS THAT APPEAR RATHER FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A
DECREASING SHEAR AND JUST AWAY FROM THE WESTERLY SHEAR PRESENT TO THE
SOUTH. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW DIANE TO REACH THE THRESHOLD OF
A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM BY SUNDAY. THEREAFTER, THE NORTHWESTERN
VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR INTRUSION IN THE
MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE SHOULD LEAD TO A POST-TROPICAL TRANSITION AND
LIMIT ITS INTENSITY.

AS DIANE MOVES AWAY FROM MAURITIUS, THE DEGRADED CONDITIONS DIRECTLY
RELATED TO THE SYSTEM WILL FADE.=

>

2020-01-25 06:04

WTIO20 FMEE 250602
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 25/01/2020
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 011/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 25/01/2020 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DIANE) 992 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.9 S / 60.2 E
(TWENTY    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 16 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM FROM THE CENTER MAINLY IN THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
40 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 55 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/01/25 AT 18 UTC:
22.6 S / 63.6 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2020/01/26 AT 06 UTC:
23.9 S / 66.3 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2020-01-25 01:09

WTIO31 FMEE 250039 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/6/20192020
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6 (DIANE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 25/01/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.8 S / 58.4 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES HUIT SUD ET CINQUANTE HUIT DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 14 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 993 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 0 SO: 160 NO: 190
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 100


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 25/01/2020 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 62.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 26/01/2020 00 UTC: 22.9 S / 65.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 26/01/2020 12 UTC: 22.9 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 27/01/2020 00 UTC: 23.2 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 27/01/2020 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 28/01/2020 00 UTC: 25.1 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 29/01/2020 00 UTC: 30.3 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
120H: 30/01/2020 00 UTC: 34.4 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5+

>

2020-01-25 01:09

WTIO30 FMEE 250039 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/6/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DIANE)

2.A POSITION 2020/01/25 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.8 S / 58.4 E
(NINETEEN    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 0 SW: 160 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 100


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/01/25 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 62.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/01/26 00 UTC: 22.9 S / 65.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/01/26 12 UTC: 22.9 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2020/01/27 00 UTC: 23.2 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2020/01/27 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2020/01/28 00 UTC: 25.1 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/01/29 00 UTC: 30.3 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
120H: 2020/01/30 00 UTC: 34.4 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING
UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+

>

2020-01-25 01:06

WTIO31 FMEE 250039
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/6/20192020
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6 (DIANE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 25/01/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.8 S / 58.4 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES HUIT SUD ET CINQUANTE HUIT DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 14 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 993 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 0 SO: 160 NO: 190
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 100


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 25/01/2020 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 62.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 26/01/2020 00 UTC: 22.9 S / 65.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 26/01/2020 12 UTC: 22.9 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 27/01/2020 00 UTC: 23.2 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 27/01/2020 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 28/01/2020 00 UTC: 25.1 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 29/01/2020 00 UTC: 30.3 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
120H: 30/01/2020 00 UTC: 34.4 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5+

LA TEMPETE DIANE EST PASSEE A ENVIRON 30 KM AU NORD DE MAURICE PEU
AVANT 21Z. UNE STATION D'OBSERVATION DU RESEAU METEOR-OI SITUEE A CAP
MALHEUREUX A REPORTE UNE PRESSION MINIMALE DE 997.4 HPA LORS DU
PASSAGE AU PLUS PRES, VALIDANT UNE PRESSION MINIMALE A 995 HPA.
DEPUIS L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE S'EST FORTEMENT RENFORCEE PRES DU CENTRE
ET LES IMAGES RADAR MONTRENT QU'UNE BANDE INCURVEE TENTENT DE SE
CONSTITUER DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST. LA CONTRAINTE D'EST EST DONC
MANIFESTEMENT EN TRAIN DE BAISSER SUR LE SYSTEME. CONFORMEMENT A
CETTE TENDANCE, L'INTENSITE FINALE EST ESTIMEE A 40 KT EN
EXTRAPOLATION DES VENTS A 35/40 KT DE L'ASCAT D'HIER SOIR.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT SUR LA PHILOSOPHIE GENERALE DE LA TRAJECTOIRE:
EMPORTE DANS LE FLUX D'OUEST PREVALANT EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE ENTRE
UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES CIRCULANT LOIN AU SUD ET UNE DORSALE
PROCHE EQUATORIALE AU NORD, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE SA COURSE
VERS L'EST-SUD-EST ET PASSER A PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE NORD DE MAURICE EN
SECONDE PARTIE DE NUIT. DANS LA NUIT DE DIMANCHE A LUNDI, LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT RALENTIR ET REDRESSER TEMPORAIREMENT SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS
L'EST OU LE NORD-EST AVEC LE PASSAGE DANS LE SUD D'UNE CELLULE DE
HAUT-GEOPOTENTIEL. LUNDI, AVEC LE DECALAGE DU HAUT GA OPOTENTIEL, LE
SYSTEME DEVRAIT RECOURBER PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS LE SUD PUIS VERS LE
SUD-OUEST TOUT EN S'A VACUANT VERS LES LATITUDES TEMPA RA ES.
LA PRESENTE TRAJECTOIRE EST BASEE SUR UN CONSENSUS DES PRINCIPAUX
MODELES.

SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT CONNAITRE UN ENVIRONNEMENT
D'ALTITUDE PLUTOT FAVORABLE ENCORE AUJOURD'HUI AVEC UNE BAISSE DE LA
CONTRAINTE D'EST TOUT EN RESTANT EN MARGE DU CISAILLEMENT DE VENT
PRESENT AU SUD. A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE
NORD-OUEST ASSOCIE A UNE INTRUSION D'AIR SEC IMPORTANTE EN MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE DEVRAIT CONDUIRE A UNE TRANSITION VERS UN SYSTEME
POST-TROPICAL.

SUR L'ILE MAURICE, LA DEGRADATION DES CONDITIONS DANS LA PARTIE
ARRIERE EST ASSEZ LIMITEE. SI DES VENTS A 30/35 KT SONT ENCORE
POSSIBLES, LES CUMULS DE PLUIE S'ANNONCENT TRES LIMITES AVEC
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA BANDE PLUVIEUSE PRESENTE A L'OUEST.=

>

2020-01-25 01:06

WTIO30 FMEE 250039
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/6/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DIANE)

2.A POSITION 2020/01/25 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.8 S / 58.4 E
(NINETEEN    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 0 SW: 160 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 100


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/01/25 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 62.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/01/26 00 UTC: 22.9 S / 65.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/01/26 12 UTC: 22.9 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2020/01/27 00 UTC: 23.2 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2020/01/27 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2020/01/28 00 UTC: 25.1 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/01/29 00 UTC: 30.3 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
120H: 2020/01/30 00 UTC: 34.4 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING
UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+

DIANA HAS PASSED ABOUT 30 KM NORTH OF MAURITIUS SHORTLY BEFORE 21Z. A
WEATHER STATION FROM THE METEOR-OI NETWORK LOCATED AT CAP MALHEUREUX
REPORTED A MIN PRESSURE AT 997.4 HPA VALIDATING THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL
PRESSURE AROUND 995 HPA BY THAT TIME. SINCE THAT, DEEP CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER AND RADAR DATA SHOW THAT A CURVED BAND IS
BUILDING WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THEREFORE THE EASTERLY
CONSTRAINT APPEARS LESSENING. BASED ON THIS TENDENCY, THE FINAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KT BY EXTRAPOLATING THE MAX WINDS AT
35/40 KT READ ON THE ASCAT PREVIOUSLY.

NO MAJOR CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST: EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW EXISTING IN THE MID LEVELS BETWEEN A MID-LAT TROUGH FAR
TO THE SOUTH AND AN EQUATORIAL RIDGE PRESENT TO THE NORTH, THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON MOVING EASTSOUTHEASTWARDS IN THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. ON THIS UNUSUAL PATH THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK CLOSE TO THE NORTH
OF MAURITIUS ISLAND DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SUNDAY NIGHT, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND CURVE ITS TRACK TEMPORALLY EAST-WARDS OR
NORTHEASTWARDS DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A HIGH GEOPOTENTIAL CELL IN THE
SOUTH. WITH THE HIGH GEOPOTENTIAL CELL SHIFT, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEND
SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE SYSTEM EVACUATES TOWARDS THE
MID-LATITUDES.
THE CURRENT TRACK IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THE MAIN GUIDANCE.

ON THIS TRACK THE SYSTEM SHOULD BENEFIT FROM ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
THAT APPEAR RATHER FAVORABLE TODAY WITH A DECREASING SHEAR AND JUST
AWAY FROM THE WESTERLY SHEAR PRESENT TO THE SOUTH. ON SUNDAY, THE
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS FORECASTED TO BECOME STRONG AND
SHOULD LEAD TO A POST-TROPICAL TRANSITION FROM MONDAY.

THE DETERIORATION OF THE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER MAURITIUS ON THE
REAR PART OF THE STORM WILL BE LIMITED. IF THE WINDS IS STRENGTHENING
AND MAY STILL REACH 30/35 KT, RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED AS THE
RAIN BAND LOCATED ON THE WESTERN SIDE HAS COLLAPSED DURING THE LAST
FEW HOURS.=

>

2020-01-25 00:23

WTIO22 FMEE 250018
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 25/01/2020
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 010/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 25/01/2020 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DIANE) 993 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.8 S / 58.4 E
(NINETEEN    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 14 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM FROM THE CENTER MAINLY IN THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
55 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 105 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/01/25 AT 12 UTC:
21.1 S / 62.0 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2020/01/26 AT 00 UTC:
22.9 S / 65.0 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2020-01-24 18:55

WTIO31 FMEE 241829 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/6/20192020
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6 (DIANE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 24/01/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.5 S / 57.0 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES CINQ SUD ET CINQUANTE SEPT DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST 14 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 0 SO: 160 NO: 190
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 0 SO: 100 NO: 100


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 25/01/2020 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 60.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 25/01/2020 18 UTC: 22.1 S / 63.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 26/01/2020 06 UTC: 23.1 S / 66.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 26/01/2020 18 UTC: 23.1 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 27/01/2020 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 27/01/2020 18 UTC: 24.8 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 28/01/2020 18 UTC: 28.4 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 29/01/2020 18 UTC: 32.7 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5+

>

2020-01-24 18:55

WTIO30 FMEE 241829 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/6/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DIANE)

2.A POSITION 2020/01/24 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5 S / 57.0 E
(NINETEEN    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SEVEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 0 SW: 160 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 0 SW: 100 NW: 100


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/01/25 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 60.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/01/25 18 UTC: 22.1 S / 63.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/01/26 06 UTC: 23.1 S / 66.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2020/01/26 18 UTC: 23.1 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2020/01/27 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2020/01/27 18 UTC: 24.8 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/01/28 18 UTC: 28.4 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2020/01/29 18 UTC: 32.7 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+

>

2020-01-24 18:52

WTIO31 FMEE 241829
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/6/20192020
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 6 (DIANE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 24/01/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.5 S / 57.0 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES CINQ SUD ET CINQUANTE SEPT DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST 14 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 0 SO: 160 NO: 190
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 0 SO: 100 NO: 100


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 25/01/2020 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 60.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 25/01/2020 18 UTC: 22.1 S / 63.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 26/01/2020 06 UTC: 23.1 S / 66.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 26/01/2020 18 UTC: 23.1 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 27/01/2020 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 27/01/2020 18 UTC: 24.8 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 28/01/2020 18 UTC: 28.4 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 29/01/2020 18 UTC: 32.7 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5+

LES ESTIMATIONS DVORAK AINSI QUE LES DONNEES ASCAT DE 1651Z INDIQUENT
QUE DU COUP DE VENT EXISTE PRINIPALEMENT DANS UN LARGE DEMI-CERCLE
NORD DE LA CIRCULATION. LE SYSTEME A ETE BAPTISE DIANE PAR LE SERVICE
METEOROLOGIQUE DE MAURICE A 1430 UTC. LE CENTRE RESTE POSITIONNE A
L'EST DE LA CONVECTION PRINCIPALE INDIQUANT L'EXISTENCE D'UNE
CONTRAINTE D'EST.


PAS DE CHANGEMENT SUR LA PHILOSOPHIE GENERALE DE LA TRAJECTOIRE:
EMPORTE DANS LE FLUX D'OUEST PREVALANT EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE ENTRE
UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES CIRCULANT LOIN AU SUD ET UNE DORSALE
PROCHE EQUATORIALE AU NORD, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE SA COURSE
VERS L'EST-SUD-EST ET PASSER A PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE NORD DE MAURICE EN
SECONDE PARTIE DE NUIT. DANS LA NUIT DE DIMANCHE A LUNDI, LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT RALENTIR ET REDRESSER TEMPORAIREMENT SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE
NORD-EST AVEC LE PASSAGE DANS LE SUD D'UNE CELLULE DE
HAUT-GEOPOTENTIEL. LUNDI, AVEC LE DECALAGE DU HAUT GA OPOTENTIEL, LE
SYSTEME DEVRAIT RECOURBER PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS LE SUD PUIS VERS LE
SUD-OUEST TOUT EN S'A VACUANT VERS LES LATITUDES TEMPA RA ES.
LA PRESENTE TRAJECTOIRE EST BASEE SUR UN CONSENSUS DES PRINCIPAUX
MODELES.

SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT CONNAITRE UN ENVIRONNEMENT
D'ALTITUDE PLUTOT FAVORABLE JUSQU'A SAMEDI AVEC UNE BAISSE DE LA
CONTRAINTE D'EST TOUT EN RESTANT EN MARGE DU CISAILLEMENT DE VENT
PRESENT AU SUD. A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE
NORD-OUEST EST PREVU DEVENIR FORT ET DEVRAIT CONDUIRE A UNE
TRANSITION VERS UN SYSTEME POST-TROPICAL DES LUNDI.

SUR L'ILE MAURICE, EN RAISON DE LA CONFIGURATION DU CHAMP DE VENT,
LES CONDITIONS VONT SE DEGRADER SUITE AU PASSAGE AU PLUS PRES DU
CENTRE AVEC DES VENTS MOYENS A 30/35 KT AVEC DE FORTES PLUIES.
TOUTEFOIS LES CUMULS DE PLUIES A VENIR DEVRAIENT SEULEMENT  TRES
LOCALEMENT ATTEINDRE LES 100 MM EN 24H.=

>

2020-01-24 18:52

WTIO30 FMEE 241829
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/6/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DIANE)

2.A POSITION 2020/01/24 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5 S / 57.0 E
(NINETEEN    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SEVEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 0 SW: 160 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 0 SW: 100 NW: 100


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/01/25 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 60.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/01/25 18 UTC: 22.1 S / 63.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/01/26 06 UTC: 23.1 S / 66.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2020/01/26 18 UTC: 23.1 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2020/01/27 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2020/01/27 18 UTC: 24.8 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/01/28 18 UTC: 28.4 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2020/01/29 18 UTC: 32.7 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+

DVORAK ESTIMATES AND ASCAT DATA OF 1651Z SUGGEST THAT GALE FORCE
WINDS MAINLY EXIST WITHIN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE SYSTEM HAS
BEEN NAMED DIANE BY THE MAURITIUS WEATHER SERVICE AT 1430 UTC. THE
CENTER REMAINS LOCATED AT THE EASTERN BORDER OF THE MAIN DEEP
CONVECTION, SUGGESTING AN EASTERLY CONSTRAINT.

NO MAJOR CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST: EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW EXISTING IN THE MID LEVELS BETWEEN A MID-LAT TROUGH FAR
TO THE SOUTH AND AN EQUATORIAL RIDGE PRESENT TO THE NORTH, THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON MOVING EASTSOUTHEASTWARDS IN THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. ON THIS UNUSUAL PATH THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK CLOSE TO THE NORTH
OF MAURITIUS ISLAND DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SUNDAY NIGHT, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND CURVE ITS TRACK TEMPORALLY NORTHEASTWARD
DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A HIGHT GEOPOTENTIAL CELL IN THE SOUTH. WITH
THE HIGHT GEOPOTENTIAL CELL SHIFT, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEND SOUTHWARD
AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE SYSTEM EVACUATES TOWARDS THE
MID-LATITUDES.
THE CURRENT TRACK IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THE MAIN GUIDANCE.

ON THIS TRACK THE SYSTEM SHOULD BENEFIT FROM ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
THAT APPEAR RATHER FAVOURABLE UP TO SATURDAY WITH A DECREASING SHEAR
AND JUST AWAY FROM THE WESTERLY SHEAR PRESENT TO THE SOUTH. ON
SUNDAY, THE NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS FORECASTED TO BECOME
STRONG AND SHOULD LEAD TO A POST-TROPICAL TRANSITION FROM MONDAY.

WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE OVER MAURITIUS AFTER
THE CLOSEST POINT APPROACH, DUE TO THE STRUCTURE OF THE STORM. BY
THAT TIME, WINDS OF 30/35 KT ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVY RAINFALLS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE ISLAND. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL 24H RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE ONLY LOCALLY 100 MM.=

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2020-01-24 18:14

WTIO22 FMEE 241809
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/01/2020
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 24/01/2020 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DIANE) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5 S / 57.0 E
(NINETEEN    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SEVEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST 14 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM FROM THE CENTER MAINLY IN THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 55
NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 105 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/01/25 AT 06 UTC:
20.7 S / 60.5 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2020/01/25 AT 18 UTC:
22.1 S / 63.6 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

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