Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for SARAI-19 in Fiji, Tonga, Niue from 26 Dec 2019 06:00 UTC to 31 Dec 2019 06:00 UTC

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 310900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 04P SWP 191231065310
2019123106 04P SARAI 021 01 065 10 SATL 015
T000 203S 1743W 030
T012 198S 1723W 030
T024 192S 1699W 025
AMP 000HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 021
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310600Z --- NEAR 20.3S 174.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 174.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 19.8S 172.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 19.2S 169.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
310900Z POSITION NEAR 20.2S 173.8W.
31DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 259
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 310900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310600Z --- NEAR 20.3S 174.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 174.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 19.8S 172.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 19.2S 169.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
310900Z POSITION NEAR 20.2S 173.8W.
31DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 259 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY DECAYED AS THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION HAS BECOME RAGGED AND FULLY EXPOSED AND THE CENTRAL
CONVECTION SHEARED OVER 50NM EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. THE INITIAL

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 310900
WARNING ATCG MIL 04P SWP 191231065310
2019123106 04P SARAI 021 01 065 10 SATL 015
T000 203S 1743W 030
T012 198S 1723W 030
T024 192S 1699W 025
AMP 000HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 021
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310600Z --- NEAR 20.3S 174.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 174.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 19.8S 172.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 19.2S 169.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
310900Z POSITION NEAR 20.2S 173.8W.
31DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 259
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z IS 11 FEET.//
0419122306 54S1755E 15
0419122312 58S1760E 15
0419122318 63S1762E 15
0419122400 68S1764E 15
0419122406 74S1766E 20
0419122412 78S1764E 20
0419122418 81S1761E 20
0419122500 83S1757E 25
0419122506 88S1757E 25
0419122512 98S1758E 25
0419122518 110S1758E 25
0419122600 120S1758E 25
0419122606 132S1758E 35
0419122612 144S1758E 45
0419122618 157S1755E 45
0419122700 168S1754E 50
0419122700 168S1754E 50
0419122706 180S1755E 55
0419122706 180S1755E 55
0419122712 186S1760E 55
0419122712 186S1760E 55
0419122718 192S1766E 60
0419122718 192S1766E 60
0419122800 199S1772E 65
0419122800 199S1772E 65
0419122800 199S1772E 65
0419122806 202S1775E 65
0419122806 202S1775E 65
0419122806 202S1775E 65
0419122812 201S1779E 70
0419122812 201S1779E 70
0419122812 201S1779E 70
0419122818 199S1783E 70
0419122818 199S1783E 70
0419122818 199S1783E 70
0419122900 203S1791E 70
0419122900 203S1791E 70
0419122900 203S1791E 70
0419122906 205S1797E 65
0419122906 205S1797E 65
0419122906 205S1797E 65
0419122912 203S1796W 65
0419122912 203S1796W 65
0419122912 203S1796W 65
0419122918 205S1789W 60
0419122918 205S1789W 60
0419123000 207S1786W 55
0419123000 207S1786W 55
0419123006 211S1774W 50
0419123006 211S1774W 50
0419123012 212S1767W 45
0419123018 211S1759W 45
0419123100 207S1753W 40
0419123106 203S1743W 30
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 310900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310600Z --- NEAR 20.3S 174.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 174.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 19.8S 172.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 19.2S 169.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
310900Z POSITION NEAR 20.2S 173.8W.
31DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 259 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY DECAYED AS THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION HAS BECOME RAGGED AND FULLY EXPOSED AND THE CENTRAL
CONVECTION SHEARED OVER 50NM EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR LOOP. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE HIGH END DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM T1.5/25KTS TO T2.0/30KTS AND IS CONSISTENT WITH NEARBY SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS, INCLUDING TONGA. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z IS 11 FEET.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 310300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 04P SWP 191231013359
2019123100 04P SARAI 020 01 055 07 SATL 050
T000 207S 1753W 040 R034 110 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 202S 1736W 040 R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 195S 1714W 035 R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 189S 1691W 035 R034 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 188S 1669W 035 R034 100 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD
T072 213S 1622W 035 R034 130 NE QD 090 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD
T096 256S 1572W 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 020
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 20.7S 175.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7S 175.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 20.2S 173.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 310300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 20.7S 175.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7S 175.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 20.2S 173.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 19.5S 171.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 310300
WARNING ATCG MIL 04P SWP 191231013359
2019123100 04P SARAI 020 01 055 07 SATL 050
T000 207S 1753W 040 R034 110 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 202S 1736W 040 R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 195S 1714W 035 R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 189S 1691W 035 R034 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 188S 1669W 035 R034 100 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD
T072 213S 1622W 035 R034 130 NE QD 090 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD
T096 256S 1572W 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 020
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 20.7S 175.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7S 175.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 20.2S 173.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 19.5S 171.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 18.9S 169.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 18.8S 166.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 21.3S 162.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 25.6S 157.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
310300Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 174.9W.
31DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 319
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 310900Z, 311500Z, 312100Z AND 010300Z.
//
0419122306 54S1755E 15
0419122312 58S1760E 15
0419122318 63S1762E 15
0419122400 68S1764E 15
0419122406 74S1766E 20
0419122412 78S1764E 20
0419122418 81S1761E 20
0419122500 83S1757E 25
0419122506 88S1757E 25
0419122512 98S1758E 25
0419122518 110S1758E 25
0419122600 120S1758E 25
0419122606 132S1758E 35
0419122612 144S1758E 45
0419122618 157S1755E 45
0419122700 168S1754E 50
0419122700 168S1754E 50
0419122706 180S1755E 55
0419122706 180S1755E 55
0419122712 186S1760E 55
0419122712 186S1760E 55
0419122718 192S1766E 60
0419122718 192S1766E 60
0419122800 199S1772E 65
0419122800 199S1772E 65
0419122800 199S1772E 65
0419122806 202S1775E 65
0419122806 202S1775E 65
0419122806 202S1775E 65
0419122812 201S1779E 70
0419122812 201S1779E 70
0419122812 201S1779E 70
0419122818 199S1783E 70
0419122818 199S1783E 70
0419122818 199S1783E 70
0419122900 203S1791E 70
0419122900 203S1791E 70
0419122900 203S1791E 70
0419122906 205S1797E 65
0419122906 205S1797E 65
0419122906 205S1797E 65
0419122912 203S1796W 65
0419122912 203S1796W 65
0419122912 203S1796W 65
0419122918 205S1789W 60
0419122918 205S1789W 60
0419123000 207S1786W 55
0419123000 207S1786W 55
0419123006 211S1774W 50
0419123006 211S1774W 50
0419123012 212S1767W 45
0419123018 211S1759W 45
0419123100 207S1753W 40

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 310300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 20.7S 175.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7S 175.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 20.2S 173.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 19.5S 171.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 18.9S 169.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 18.8S 166.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 21.3S 162.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 25.6S 157.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
310300Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 174.9W.
31DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (SARAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 319
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ANIMATED MSI AND A 310122Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC WITH CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KNOTS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE, SUPPORTED BY A SWATH OF 40 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC IN THE 301953Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS AND A 31220Z ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF 43 KNOTS. DESPITE WARM (29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CONSISTING OF HIGH (20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND POOR UPPER LEVEL SPEED DIVERGENCE OFFSET TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES, VWS WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER BETWEEN 25-30 KNOTS, LEADING TC 04P TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL DISSIPATING BEFORE TAU 96. TC 04P IS TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER). A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF TC 04P IS EXPECTED TO BUILD, DIGGING DEEPER INTO THE TROPICS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD CAUSING THE NER TO RE-ORIENT. TC 04P WILL TURN SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 36 UNTIL DISSIPATION AS ITS STEERING FEATURE SHIFTS TO A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A 160 NM CROSS TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 36 DUE TO THE CONSISTENT OUTLIERS, GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS, WHICH TRACK THE SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH WITH SLOWER ALONG-TRACK SPEEDS. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310900Z, 311500Z, 312100Z AND 010300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 302100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 04P SWP 191230194345
2019123018 04P SARAI 019 01 085 08 SATL 060
T000 211S 1759W 045 R034 110 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 207S 1744W 045 R034 050 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 201S 1724W 040 R034 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 194S 1702W 035 R034 090 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 190S 1679W 035 R034 130 NE QD 060 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 207S 1633W 035 R034 140 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 244S 1589W 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 019
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 21.1S 175.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 085 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 175.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 20.7S 174.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 302100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 21.1S 175.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 085 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 175.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 20.7S 174.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 20.1S 172.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 302100
WARNING ATCG MIL 04P SWP 191230194345
2019123018 04P SARAI 019 01 085 08 SATL 060
T000 211S 1759W 045 R034 110 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 207S 1744W 045 R034 050 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 201S 1724W 040 R034 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 194S 1702W 035 R034 090 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 190S 1679W 035 R034 130 NE QD 060 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 207S 1633W 035 R034 140 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 244S 1589W 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 019
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 21.1S 175.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 085 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 175.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 20.7S 174.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 20.1S 172.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 19.4S 170.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 19.0S 167.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 20.7S 163.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 24.4S 158.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 21.0S 175.5W.
30DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 359
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 310300Z, 310900Z, 311500Z AND 312100Z.
//
0419122306 54S1755E 15
0419122312 58S1760E 15
0419122318 63S1762E 15
0419122400 68S1764E 15
0419122406 74S1766E 20
0419122412 78S1764E 20
0419122418 81S1761E 20
0419122500 83S1757E 25
0419122506 88S1757E 25
0419122512 98S1758E 25
0419122518 110S1758E 25
0419122600 120S1758E 25
0419122606 132S1758E 35
0419122612 144S1758E 45
0419122618 157S1755E 45
0419122700 168S1754E 50
0419122700 168S1754E 50
0419122706 180S1755E 55
0419122706 180S1755E 55
0419122712 186S1760E 55
0419122712 186S1760E 55
0419122718 192S1766E 60
0419122718 192S1766E 60
0419122800 199S1772E 65
0419122800 199S1772E 65
0419122800 199S1772E 65
0419122806 202S1775E 65
0419122806 202S1775E 65
0419122806 202S1775E 65
0419122812 201S1779E 70
0419122812 201S1779E 70
0419122812 201S1779E 70
0419122818 199S1783E 70
0419122818 199S1783E 70
0419122818 199S1783E 70
0419122900 203S1791E 70
0419122900 203S1791E 70
0419122900 203S1791E 70
0419122906 205S1797E 65
0419122906 205S1797E 65
0419122906 205S1797E 65
0419122912 203S1796W 65
0419122912 203S1796W 65
0419122912 203S1796W 65
0419122918 205S1789W 60
0419122918 205S1789W 60
0419123000 207S1786W 55
0419123000 207S1786W 55
0419123006 211S1774W 50
0419123006 211S1774W 50
0419123012 212S1767W 45
0419123018 211S1759W 45

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 21.1S 175.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 085 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 175.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 20.7S 174.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 20.1S 172.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 19.4S 170.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 19.0S 167.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 20.7S 163.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 24.4S 158.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 21.0S 175.5W.
30DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (SARAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 359
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 301829Z
SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC
WITH CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE INTENSITY IS SET AT 45
KNOTS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY A
SWATH OF 45 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC IN THE 300957Z METOP-B
ASCAT PASS AND A 301327Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 50 KNOTS. DESPITE WARM
(29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CONSISTING OF HIGH (25-30 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND POOR UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OFFSET TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES, VWS WILL CONTINUE
TO HOVER BETWEEN 25-35 KNOTS, LEADING TC 04P TO STEADILY WEAKEN UNTIL
DISSIPATING AT TAU 96. TC 04P IS TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER). A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO THE
SOUTH OF TC 04P IS EXPECTED TO BUILD, DIGGING DEEPER INTO THE TROPICS
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD CAUSING THE NER TO WEAKEN OR REORIENT.
CONCURRENTLY, TC 04P WILL SHIFT TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
TAU 48 AS THE TROUGH BUILDS AND THEN TURN SOUTHEASTWARD UNTIL
DISSIPATION AS ITS STEERING FEATURE SHIFTS TO A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE LATEST MODEL RUN WITH A 140NM CROSS TRACK
SPREAD AT TAU 48. THE CONSISTENT OUTLIERS ARE THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS WHICH TRACK THE SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH WITH SLOWER ALONG-TRACK
SPEEDS. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR A THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
310300Z, 310900Z, 311500Z AND 312100Z.//

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 301500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 04P SWP 191230143712
2019123012 04P SARAI 018 01 100 07 SATL 035
T000 212S 1767W 045 R034 110 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 210S 1754W 045 R034 070 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 205S 1738W 040 R034 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 198S 1718W 035 R034 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 191S 1697W 035 R034 110 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 198S 1655W 035 R034 160 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 227S 1617W 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 018
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 20.7S 178.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 301500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 21.2S 176.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.2S 176.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 21.0S 175.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 20.5S 173.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 301500
WARNING ATCG MIL 04P SWP 191230143712
2019123012 04P SARAI 018 01 100 07 SATL 035
T000 212S 1767W 045 R034 110 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 210S 1754W 045 R034 070 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 205S 1738W 040 R034 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 198S 1718W 035 R034 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 191S 1697W 035 R034 110 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 198S 1655W 035 R034 160 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 227S 1617W 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 018
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 20.7S 178.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7S 178.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 20.8S 177.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 20.5S 176.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 20.0S 174.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 19.3S 172.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 18.8S 168.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 20.9S 164.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 24.6S 159.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 20.7S 178.3W.
30DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
300000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z, 301500Z, 302100Z
AND 310300Z.//
0419122306 54S1755E 15
0419122312 58S1760E 15
0419122318 63S1762E 15
0419122400 68S1764E 15
0419122406 74S1766E 20
0419122412 78S1764E 20
0419122418 81S1761E 20
0419122500 83S1757E 25
0419122506 88S1757E 25
0419122512 98S1758E 25
0419122518 110S1758E 25
0419122600 120S1758E 25
0419122606 132S1758E 35
0419122612 144S1758E 45
0419122618 157S1755E 45
0419122700 168S1754E 50
0419122700 168S1754E 50
0419122706 180S1755E 55
0419122706 180S1755E 55
0419122712 186S1760E 55
0419122712 186S1760E 55
0419122718 192S1766E 60
0419122718 192S1766E 60
0419122800 199S1772E 65
0419122800 199S1772E 65
0419122800 199S1772E 65
0419122806 202S1775E 65
0419122806 202S1775E 65
0419122806 202S1775E 65
0419122812 201S1779E 70
0419122812 201S1779E 70
0419122812 201S1779E 70
0419122818 199S1783E 70
0419122818 199S1783E 70
0419122818 199S1783E 70
0419122900 203S1791E 70
0419122900 203S1791E 70
0419122900 203S1791E 70
0419122906 205S1797E 65
0419122906 205S1797E 65
0419122906 205S1797E 65
0419122912 203S1796W 65
0419122912 203S1796W 65
0419122912 203S1796W 65
0419122918 205S1789W 60
0419122918 205S1789W 60
0419123000 207S1786W 55
0419123000 207S1786W 55

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 21.2S 176.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.2S 176.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 21.0S 175.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 20.5S 173.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 19.8S 171.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 19.1S 169.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 19.8S 165.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 22.7S 161.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 21.1S 176.4W.
30DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (SARAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 403
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS (KTS)
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH A SMALL AMOUNT OF FLARING CONVECTION OBSCURING THE EXACT
POSITION OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATION OF A 300957Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS
WHICH REVEALED A 30 NM LLCC. SET AT 45 KTS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY A SWATH OF 45 KT WINDS TO THE SOUTH
OF THE LLCC IN THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS. DESPITE WARM (29-30
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CONSISTING OF HIGH (30-35 KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND A FAIR EASTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. AS THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSES, VWS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE, LEADING TC 04P TO STEADILY
WEAKEN UNTIL DISSIPATING AT TAU 96. TC 04P IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER). A DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TC 04P IS EXPECTED TO BUILD, DIGGING
DEEPER INTO THE TROPICS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND IT IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE NER TO WEAKEN OR REORIENT. CONCURRENTLY, TC 04P
WILL SHIFT TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 AS THE TROUGH
BUILDS AND THEN TURN SOUTHEASTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE LATEST MODEL
RUN. THE CONSISTENT OUTLIERS ARE THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
WHICH TRACK THE SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH WITH SLOWER ALONG-TRACK SPEEDS.
THE UKMET AND UKMET ENSEMBLE HAVE SHIFTED TO A MORE DEFINITE RECURVE
SOLUTION; HOWEVER, THEIR ALONG-TRACK SPEEDS REMAIN FASTER THAN OTHER
MODELS. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER
SOLUTIONS, LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 302100Z, 310300Z, 310900Z AND 311500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 300900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 04P SWP 191230080518
2019123006 04P SARAI 017 01 110 12 SATL 025
T000 211S 1774W 050 R050 070 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 065 NW QD R034
135 NE QD 195 SE QD 170 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 211S 1762W 050 R050 040 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
090 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 207S 1748W 045 R034 080 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 201S 1730W 040 R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 194S 1710W 035 R034 080 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 194S 1667W 035 R034 120 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 130 NW QD
T096 222S 1623W 035 R034 160 NE QD 110 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD
T120 272S 1563W 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 017
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 20.7S 178.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 300900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 21.1S 177.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 177.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 21.1S 176.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 300900
WARNING ATCG MIL 04P SWP 191230080518
2019123006 04P SARAI 017 01 110 12 SATL 025
T000 211S 1774W 050 R050 070 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 195 SE QD 170 SW Q
D 125 NW QD
T012 211S 1762W 050 R050 040 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW Q
D 090 NW QD
T024 207S 1748W 045 R034 080 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 201S 1730W 040 R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 194S 1710W 035 R034 080 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 194S 1667W 035 R034 120 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 130 NW QD
T096 222S 1623W 035 R034 160 NE QD 110 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD
T120 272S 1563W 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 017
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 20.7S 178.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7S 178.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 20.8S 177.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 20.5S 176.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 20.0S 174.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 19.3S 172.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 18.8S 168.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 20.9S 164.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 24.6S 159.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 20.7S 178.3W.
30DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
300000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z, 301500Z, 302100Z
AND 310300Z.//
0419122306 54S1755E 15
0419122312 58S1760E 15
0419122318 63S1762E 15
0419122400 68S1764E 15
0419122406 74S1766E 20
0419122412 78S1764E 20
0419122418 81S1761E 20
0419122500 83S1757E 25
0419122506 88S1757E 25
0419122512 98S1758E 25
0419122518 110S1758E 25
0419122600 120S1758E 25
0419122606 132S1758E 35
0419122612 144S1758E 45
0419122618 157S1755E 45
0419122700 168S1754E 50
0419122700 168S1754E 50
0419122706 180S1755E 55
0419122706 180S1755E 55
0419122712 186S1760E 55
0419122712 186S1760E 55
0419122718 192S1766E 60
0419122718 192S1766E 60
0419122800 199S1772E 65
0419122800 199S1772E 65
0419122800 199S1772E 65
0419122806 202S1775E 65
0419122806 202S1775E 65
0419122806 202S1775E 65
0419122812 201S1779E 70
0419122812 201S1779E 70
0419122812 201S1779E 70
0419122818 199S1783E 70
0419122818 199S1783E 70
0419122818 199S1783E 70
0419122900 203S1791E 70
0419122900 203S1791E 70
0419122900 203S1791E 70
0419122906 205S1797E 65
0419122906 205S1797E 65
0419122906 205S1797E 65
0419122912 203S1796W 65
0419122912 203S1796W 65
0419122912 203S1796W 65
0419122918 205S1789W 60
0419122918 205S1789W 60
0419123000 207S1786W 55
0419123000 207S1786W 55

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 21.1S 177.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 177.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 21.1S 176.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 20.7S 174.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 20.1S 173.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 19.4S 171.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 19.4S 166.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 22.2S 162.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 27.2S 156.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 21.1S 177.1W.
30DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (SARAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
439 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
12 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A SMALL AMOUNT OF FLARING
CONVECTION OBSCURING THE EXACT POSITION OF THE LLCC. MOST OF THE
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS SET WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON MSI AND A 300608Z
WINDSAT 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
INTO THE LLCC. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 50 KTS AS IT IS HEDGED BETWEEN MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KTS), A 290540Z ADVANCED DVORAK
TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF 41 KTS, AND A 300510 SATELLITE CONSENSUS
ESTIMATE OF 56 KTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS HIGH (35-40 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND A FAIR OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE EAST.
THUS, DESPITE WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, TC
04P IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. VWS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES, CONTRIBUTING TO A
STEADY WEAKENING OF TC 04P UNTIL FULL DISSIPATION AT TAU 120. TC
04P IS TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER). A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF TC 04P IS EXPECTED TO BUILD, DIGGING DEEPER INTO
THE TROPICS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
WEAKENING AND REORIENTATION OF THE NER, IMPACTING THE TRACK
STEERING MECHANISM AND CAUSING SOME VARIATION BETWEEN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS. THE MOST DOMINANT TRACK SOLUTION SHOWS TC 04P RECURVING
TO THE NORTHEAST FROM TAU 12 TO TAU 60 THEN TURNING TO TRACK
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAIN MODEL
VARIATIONS ARE SEEN IN THE ALONG TRACK SPEEDS. THE UKMET AND UKMET
ENSEMBLE REMAIN THE OUTLIERS TO THE SOUTH DEPICTING A PRIMARILY
EASTWARD TRACK WITH FASTER ALONG TRACK SPEED AND A VERY SLIGHT
SYSTEM RECURVE. THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE, CONVERSELY, TRACK THE
SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH DURING THE RECURVE WITH SLOWER ALONG TRACK
SPEEDS. THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS, WHICH IS SIMILAR TO AN AVERAGE OF THE MEMBERS THAT MAKE
UP THE DOMINANT TRACK SOLUTION. DUE TO CONTINUED SPREAD IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 21 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z, 302100Z, 310300Z AND 310900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 300300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 20.7S 178.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7S 178.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 20.8S 177.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 300300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 04P SWP 191230015024
2019123000 04P SARAI 016 01 125 03 SATL 035
T000 207S 1786W 055 R050 025 NE QD 010 SE QD 060 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
120 NE QD 195 SE QD 160 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 208S 1775W 050 R050 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 050 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
120 NE QD 170 SE QD 130 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 205S 1761W 050 R050 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
100 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 200S 1746W 045 R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 193S 1728W 040 R034 120 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 188S 1686W 035 R034 170 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 209S 1645W 035 R034 160 NE QD 120 SE QD 050 SW QD 090 NW QD
T120 246S 1598W 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 016
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 20.7S 178.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 20.7S 178.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7S 178.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 20.8S 177.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 20.5S 176.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 20.0S 174.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 19.3S 172.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 18.8S 168.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 20.9S 164.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 24.6S 159.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 20.7S 178.3W.
30DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
A SMALL AMOUNT OF FLARING CONVECTION OBSCURING THE EXACT POSITION
OF THE LLCC. TC 04P HAS STALLED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AND THE
CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
SET WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 292049Z ASCAT-C DIRECT PASS
THAT SHOWS A 30 NM WIDE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS PLACED AT
55 KTS BASED ON A CLUSTER OF 50 KT WIND BARBS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE LLCC IN THE 292049Z ASCAT-C PASS AND A DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 3.5 (55 KTS) FROM PGTW. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS
AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO MODERATE TO HIGH
(25-30 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ONLY FAIR UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW TO THE EAST. AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES, VWS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE AND CAUSE TC 04P TO STEADILY WEAKEN AS THE ENVIRONMENT
BECOMES MORE UNFAVORABLE, FULLY DISSIPATING AT TAU 120. TC 04P IS
TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER). A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TC
04P IS FORECAST TO BUILD, DIGGING DEEPER INTO THE TROPICS OVER THE
FORECAST PERIOD CAUSING THE NER TO WEAKEN AND REORIENT. THIS WILL
IMPACT THE TRACK STEERING MECHANISM AND CAUSES NOTABLE VARIATIONS
IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. BETWEEN TAUS 12 TO 24, THE MOST DOMINANT
TRACK SOLUTION SHOWS TC 04P RECURVING TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TAU
72 THEN TURNING TO TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE UKMET AND UKMET ENSEMBLE REMAIN OUTLIERS TO THE SOUTH,
WHICH NOW DEPICT A SLIGHT RECURVE BUT PRIMARILY TRACK TC 04P
EASTWARD WITH FASTER ALONG TRACK SPEEDS. WHEREAS, THE GFS AND GFS
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS TRACK THE SYSTEM FURTHER TO THE NORTH DURING
THE RECURVE AND HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER ALONG TRACK SPEEDS. THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS,
WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH THE AVERAGE TRACK OF THE MEMBERS THAT
MAKE UP THE DOMINANT TRACK SOLUTION. DUE TO CONTINUED SPREAD IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 24 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z, 301500Z, 302100Z AND 310300Z.//

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 300300
WARNING ATCG MIL 04P SWP 191230015024
2019123000 04P SARAI 016 01 125 03 SATL 035
T000 207S 1786W 055 R050 025 NE QD 010 SE QD 060 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 195 SE QD 160 SW Q
D 100 NW QD
T012 208S 1775W 050 R050 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 050 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 170 SE QD 130 SW Q
D 090 NW QD
T024 205S 1761W 050 R050 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW Q
D 080 NW QD
T036 200S 1746W 045 R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 193S 1728W 040 R034 120 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 188S 1686W 035 R034 170 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 209S 1645W 035 R034 160 NE QD 120 SE QD 050 SW QD 090 NW QD
T120 246S 1598W 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 016
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 20.7S 178.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7S 178.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 20.8S 177.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 20.5S 176.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 20.0S 174.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 19.3S 172.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 18.8S 168.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 20.9S 164.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 24.6S 159.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 20.7S 178.3W.
30DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
300000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z, 301500Z, 302100Z
AND 310300Z.//
0419122306 54S1755E 15
0419122312 58S1760E 15
0419122318 63S1762E 15
0419122400 68S1764E 15
0419122406 74S1766E 20
0419122412 78S1764E 20
0419122418 81S1761E 20
0419122500 83S1757E 25
0419122506 88S1757E 25
0419122512 98S1758E 25
0419122518 110S1758E 25
0419122600 120S1758E 25
0419122606 132S1758E 35
0419122612 144S1758E 45
0419122618 157S1755E 45
0419122700 168S1754E 50
0419122700 168S1754E 50
0419122706 180S1755E 55
0419122706 180S1755E 55
0419122712 186S1760E 55
0419122712 186S1760E 55
0419122718 192S1766E 60
0419122718 192S1766E 60
0419122800 199S1772E 65
0419122800 199S1772E 65
0419122800 199S1772E 65
0419122806 202S1775E 65
0419122806 202S1775E 65
0419122806 202S1775E 65
0419122812 201S1779E 70
0419122812 201S1779E 70
0419122812 201S1779E 70
0419122818 199S1783E 70
0419122818 199S1783E 70
0419122818 199S1783E 70
0419122900 203S1791E 70
0419122900 203S1791E 70
0419122900 203S1791E 70
0419122906 205S1797E 65
0419122906 205S1797E 65
0419122906 205S1797E 65
0419122912 203S1796W 65
0419122912 203S1796W 65
0419122912 203S1796W 65
0419122918 205S1789W 60
0419122918 205S1789W 60
0419123000 207S1786W 55
0419123000 207S1786W 55

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 292100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 20.5S 178.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S 178.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 20.7S 177.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 292100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 20.5S 178.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S 178.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 20.7S 177.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 20.6S 176.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 20.1S 175.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 19.4S 173.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 18.5S 170.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 20.1S 165.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 23.8S 160.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 178.5W.
29DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 509
NM WEST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
CONVECTION DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
SET WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE ON THE
291739Z 37GHZ WINDSAT MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
PLACED AT 60 KTS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KTS) AND A 291637Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 54
KTS, LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL INTENSITY. DESPITE
WARM (26-27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AND DECENT
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW TO THE EAST, MODERATE TO HIGH (25-30 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS CREATING A MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR TC 04P. AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES, VWS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND CAUSE TC 04P TO STEADILY WEAKEN AS THE
ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE UNFAVORABLE, FULLY DISSIPATING AT TAU
120. TC 04P IS TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER). A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF TC 04P IS FORECAST TO BUILD, DIGGING DEEPER INTO
THE TROPICS OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD CAUSING THE NER TO WEAKEN AND
REORIENT, IMPACTING THE TRACK STEERING MECHANISM AND CAUSING
VARIATIONS IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. AROUND TAU 24, THE MOST
DOMINANT TRACK SOLUTION SHOWS TC 04P RECURVING TO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH TAU 72 THEN TURNING TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE UKMET AND UKMET ENSEMBLE REMAIN
OUTLIERS TO THE SOUTH WHICH NOW BARELY RECURVE THE SYSTEM,
PRIMARILY TRACKING EASTWARD WITH HIGHER ALONG TRACK SPEEDS.
WHEREAS, THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS RECURVE THE SYSTEM
FURTHER TO THE WEST AT TAU 24, DUE TO SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER ALONG
TRACK SPEEDS. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED SLIGHTLY FASTER
THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IN EARLY TAUS AS PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS HAVE BEEN PROGRESSING THE SYSTEM TOO SLOWLY. DUE TO CONTINUED
SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 20
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z, 300900Z, 301500Z AND 302100Z.//

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 292100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 04P SWP 191229201143
2019122918 04P SARAI 015 01 105 08 SATL 020
T000 205S 1788W 060 R050 050 NE QD 075 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034
115 NE QD 190 SE QD 165 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 207S 1775W 055 R050 010 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
120 NE QD 170 SE QD 140 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 206S 1765W 050 R050 000 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
100 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 201S 1753W 045 R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 194S 1737W 040 R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 185S 1700W 040 R034 130 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 201S 1659W 035 R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 120 NW QD
T120 238S 1604W 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 015
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 20.5S 178.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 292100
WARNING ATCG MIL 04P SWP 191229201143
2019122918 04P SARAI 015 01 105 08 SATL 020
T000 205S 1788W 060 R050 050 NE QD 075 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 190 SE QD 165 SW Q
D 090 NW QD
T012 207S 1775W 055 R050 010 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 170 SE QD 140 SW Q
D 090 NW QD
T024 206S 1765W 050 R050 000 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW Q
D 080 NW QD
T036 201S 1753W 045 R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 194S 1737W 040 R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 185S 1700W 040 R034 130 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 201S 1659W 035 R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 120 NW QD
T120 238S 1604W 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 015
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 20.5S 178.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S 178.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 20.7S 177.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 20.6S 176.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 20.1S 175.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 19.4S 173.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 18.5S 170.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 20.1S 165.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 23.8S 160.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 178.5W.
29DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
509 NM WEST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
291800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z, 300900Z, 301500Z
AND 302100Z.//
0419122306 54S1755E 15
0419122312 58S1760E 15
0419122318 63S1762E 15
0419122400 68S1764E 15
0419122406 74S1766E 20
0419122412 78S1764E 20
0419122418 81S1761E 20
0419122500 83S1757E 25
0419122506 88S1757E 25
0419122512 98S1758E 25
0419122518 110S1758E 25
0419122600 120S1758E 25
0419122606 132S1758E 35
0419122612 144S1758E 45
0419122618 157S1755E 45
0419122700 168S1754E 50
0419122700 168S1754E 50
0419122706 180S1755E 55
0419122706 180S1755E 55
0419122712 186S1760E 55
0419122712 186S1760E 55
0419122718 192S1766E 60
0419122718 192S1766E 60
0419122800 199S1772E 65
0419122800 199S1772E 65
0419122800 199S1772E 65
0419122806 202S1775E 65
0419122806 202S1775E 65
0419122806 202S1775E 65
0419122812 201S1779E 70
0419122812 201S1779E 70
0419122812 201S1779E 70
0419122818 199S1783E 70
0419122818 199S1783E 70
0419122818 199S1783E 70
0419122900 203S1791E 70
0419122900 203S1791E 70
0419122900 203S1791E 70
0419122906 205S1797E 65
0419122906 205S1797E 65
0419122906 205S1797E 65
0419122912 203S1796W 65
0419122912 203S1796W 65
0419122912 203S1796W 65
0419122918 205S1788W 60
0419122918 205S1788W 60

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 291500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 04P SWP 191229134741
2019122912 04P SARAI 014 01 080 06 SATL 030
T000 204S 1796W 065 R064 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 185 SE QD
160 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 206S 1787W 060 R050 010 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
120 NE QD 170 SE QD 160 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 206S 1776W 055 R050 010 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
110 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 203S 1764W 050 R050 010 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
080 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 198S 1749W 045 R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 186S 1716W 040 R034 140 NE QD 110 SE QD 120 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 194S 1668W 035 R034 150 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD
T120 231S 1613W 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 014
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 20.5S 179.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 291500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 20.4S 179.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 080 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S 179.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 20.6S 178.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 291500
WARNING ATCG MIL 04P SWP 191229134741
2019122912 04P SARAI 014 01 080 06 SATL 030
T000 204S 1796W 065 R064 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 185 SE QD 160 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 206S 1787W 060 R050 010 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 170 SE QD 160 SW Q
D 100 NW QD
T024 206S 1776W 055 R050 010 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW Q
D 080 NW QD
T036 203S 1764W 050 R050 010 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW Q
D 060 NW QD
T048 198S 1749W 045 R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 186S 1716W 040 R034 140 NE QD 110 SE QD 120 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 194S 1668W 035 R034 150 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD
T120 231S 1613W 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 014
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 20.5S 179.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S 179.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 20.6S 179.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 20.7S 178.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 20.6S 177.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 19.7S 173.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 19.1S 172.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 19.2S 167.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 22.4S 162.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 179.9W.
29DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 164
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 291500Z, 292100Z, 300300Z AND 300900Z.
//
0419122306 54S1755E 15
0419122312 58S1760E 15
0419122318 63S1762E 15
0419122400 68S1764E 15
0419122406 74S1766E 20
0419122412 78S1764E 20
0419122418 81S1761E 20
0419122500 83S1757E 25
0419122506 88S1757E 25
0419122512 98S1758E 25
0419122518 110S1758E 25
0419122600 120S1758E 25
0419122606 132S1758E 35
0419122612 144S1758E 45
0419122618 157S1755E 45
0419122700 168S1754E 50
0419122700 168S1754E 50
0419122706 180S1755E 55
0419122706 180S1755E 55
0419122712 186S1760E 55
0419122712 186S1760E 55
0419122718 192S1766E 60
0419122718 192S1766E 60
0419122800 199S1772E 65
0419122800 199S1772E 65
0419122800 199S1772E 65
0419122806 202S1775E 65
0419122806 202S1775E 65
0419122806 202S1775E 65
0419122812 201S1779E 70
0419122812 201S1779E 70
0419122812 201S1779E 70
0419122818 199S1783E 70
0419122818 199S1783E 70
0419122818 199S1783E 70
0419122900 203S1791E 70
0419122900 203S1791E 70
0419122900 203S1791E 70
0419122906 205S1798E 65
0419122906 205S1798E 65
0419122906 205S1798E 65

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 20.4S 179.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 080 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S 179.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 20.6S 178.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 20.6S 177.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 20.3S 176.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 19.8S 174.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 18.6S 171.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 19.4S 166.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 23.1S 161.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 179.4W.
29DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (SARAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
553 NM WEST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS (KTS) OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS SET WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON EIR IMAGERY AND AN
EXTRAPOLATION OF A 291018Z METOP-B ASCAT PARTIAL ASCAT PASS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS PLACED AT 65 KTS BASED ON A SWATH OF 60-65 KT
WINDS WEST OF THE LLCC IN THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT IMAGE ALONG
WITH MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0-4.5
(65-77 KTS) BY PGTW AND NFFN, LENDING GOOD CONFIDENCE TO THE
INITIAL INTENSITY. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON THE
LATEST ASCAT PASS. MODERATE TO HIGH (25-30 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) IS BEING OFFSET BY WARM (27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST) AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, PLACING TC 04P IN A
NEUTRALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES, VWS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THUS TC 04P WILL STEADILY WEAKEN
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 04P IS TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER). A DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TC 04P IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE
NER TO WEAKEN AND REORIENT, IMPACTING THE TRACK STEERING MECHANISM
AND CAUSING VARIATIONS IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. AROUND TAU 36, THE
MOST DOMINANT TRACK SOLUTION SHOWS TC 04P RECURVING TO THE
NORTHEAST. FOLLOWING THAT, THE SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE UKMET AND
UKMET ENSEMBLE REMAIN OUTLIERS TO THE SOUTH WHICH DO NOT RECURVE
THE SYSTEM BUT TRACK EASTWARD WITH ACCELERATED ALONG TRACK SPEEDS.
ADDITIONALLY, THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO RECURVE
THE SYSTEM AROUND TAU 12 IN THE LATEST MODEL RUN. THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST IS PLACED JUST NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO
HEDGE TOWARDS A TRACK THAT AVERAGES THE DOMINANT MODEL TRACK
SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER, DUE TO CONTINUED SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE,
THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
292100Z, 300300Z, 300900Z AND 301500Z.//

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 290900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 04P SWP 191229081538
2019122906 04P SARAI 013 01 105 07 SATL 030
T000 205S 1798E 065 R064 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 095 SE QD 095 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 175 SE QD
170 SW QD 115 NW QD
T012 206S 1792W 060 R050 030 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
120 NE QD 170 SE QD 160 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 207S 1782W 055 R050 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
110 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 206S 1770W 050 R050 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
100 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 197S 1739W 045 R034 070 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 191S 1721W 045 R034 130 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 192S 1679W 040 R034 200 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 140 NW QD
T120 224S 1623W 030
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 013
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 20.5S 179.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 290900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 20.5S 179.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S 179.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 20.6S 179.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 290900
WARNING ATCG MIL 04P SWP 191229081538
2019122906 04P SARAI 013 01 105 07 SATL 030
T000 205S 1798E 065 R064 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 095 SE QD 095 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 175 SE QD 170 SW QD 115 NW QD
T012 206S 1792W 060 R050 030 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 170 SE QD 160 SW Q
D 100 NW QD
T024 207S 1782W 055 R050 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW Q
D 100 NW QD
T036 206S 1770W 050 R050 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW Q
D 090 NW QD
T048 197S 1739W 045 R034 070 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 191S 1721W 045 R034 130 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 192S 1679W 040 R034 200 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 140 NW QD
T120 224S 1623W 030
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 013
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 20.5S 179.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S 179.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 20.6S 179.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 20.7S 178.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 20.6S 177.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 19.7S 173.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 19.1S 172.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 19.2S 167.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 22.4S 162.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 179.9W.
29DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 164
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 291500Z, 292100Z, 300300Z AND 300900Z.
//
0419122306 54S1755E 15
0419122312 58S1760E 15
0419122318 63S1762E 15
0419122400 68S1764E 15
0419122406 74S1766E 20
0419122412 78S1764E 20
0419122418 81S1761E 20
0419122500 83S1757E 25
0419122506 88S1757E 25
0419122512 98S1758E 25
0419122518 110S1758E 25
0419122600 120S1758E 25
0419122606 132S1758E 35
0419122612 144S1758E 45
0419122618 157S1755E 45
0419122700 168S1754E 50
0419122700 168S1754E 50
0419122706 180S1755E 55
0419122706 180S1755E 55
0419122712 186S1760E 55
0419122712 186S1760E 55
0419122718 192S1766E 60
0419122718 192S1766E 60
0419122800 199S1772E 65
0419122800 199S1772E 65
0419122800 199S1772E 65
0419122806 202S1775E 65
0419122806 202S1775E 65
0419122806 202S1775E 65
0419122812 201S1779E 70
0419122812 201S1779E 70
0419122812 201S1779E 70
0419122818 199S1783E 70
0419122818 199S1783E 70
0419122818 199S1783E 70
0419122900 203S1791E 70
0419122900 203S1791E 70
0419122900 203S1791E 70
0419122906 205S1798E 65
0419122906 205S1798E 65
0419122906 205S1798E 65

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 290900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 20.5S 179.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S 179.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 20.6S 179.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 20.7S 178.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 20.6S 177.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 19.7S 173.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 19.1S 172.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 19.2S 167.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 22.4S 162.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 179.9W.
29DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (SARAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 164
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
07 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH THE MAJORITY
OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). BASED ON THE CIRCULATION EVIDENT IN MSI
ALONG WITH BANDING DEPICTED IN A 290523Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE,
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 65 KTS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE HEDGED BETWEEN MULTI-
AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5-4.5 (55-77 KTS)
FROM PGTW, KNES, AND ABRF, A 290540Z ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ESTIMATE OF T3.7 (59 KTS), AND A 290523Z SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE
OF 62 KTS. MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (27
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW
SUSTAIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AROUND TC 04P. HOWEVER, AS VWS
INCREASES AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT DECREASES, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME
MORE UNFAVORABLE CAUSING TC 04P TO STEADILY WEAKEN. TC 04P IS
TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE (NER). A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TC 04P IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE NER TO WEAKEN AND REORIENT, THUS IMPACTING THE
FORECAST TRACK. SINCE THE PREVIOUS RUN, THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT. HOWEVER, THERE ARE STILL SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN THE
SOLUTIONS DUE TO THE TIMING AND DEPTH OF THE TROUGH. THE MOST
DOMINANT TRACK SHOWS TC 04P RECURVING TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND TAU 36
BEFORE TRACKING EASTWARD THEN SOUTHEASTWARD BY TAU 96. NOTABLE
OUTLIERS ARE THE UKMET AND UKMET ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS WHICH DEPICT A
GENERALLY EASTWARD TRACK WITH FASTER ALONG TRACK SPEEDS. THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET
THE SOUTHERLY OUTLIERS AND HEDGE TOWARDS A TRACK THAT AVERAGES THE
DOMINANT MODEL TRACK SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER, DUE TO A CONTINUED SPREAD IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 291500Z, 292100Z, 300300Z AND 300900Z.//

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 282100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 04P SWP 191228205726
2019122818 04P SARAI 011 01 060 04 SATL 025
T000 199S 1783E 070 R064 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
080 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 180 SE QD
150 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 199S 1791E 070 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 170 SE QD
150 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 198S 1800E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 170 SE QD
150 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 198S 1790W 060 R050 010 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
120 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 197S 1779W 055 R050 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
100 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 189S 1751W 045 R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 183S 1707W 040 R034 170 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 100 NW QD
T120 206S 1660W 040 R034 160 NE QD 140 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 011
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 19.9S 178.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 282100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 19.9S 178.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9S 178.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 19.9S 179.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 19.9S 178.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9S 178.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 19.9S 179.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 19.8S 180.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 19.8S 179.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 19.7S 177.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 18.9S 175.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 18.3S 170.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 20.6S 166.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 178.5E.
28DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 108
NM SOUTH OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS AN UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION SHEARED APPROXIMATELY 25 NM TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE
BULK OF CONVECTION SOUTHEAST OF THIS UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE ON A 281757Z WINDSAT 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 70 KTS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE,
HEDGED BETWEEN A 281740Z ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T3.8 (61 KTS) AND DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T4.5 (77 KTS) BY PGTW/KNES. TC 04P IS IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS), AND DECENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 04P IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER). A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TC 04P IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND REORIENT THE
NER, SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTING THE FORECAST TRACK. HOWEVER, THERE
ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND DEPTH OF THE TROUGH AMONG THE
MODELS, WHICH RESULTS IN SIGNIFICANT TRACK VARIATIONS. THERE ARE
NOW TWO DISTINCT TRACKS DISPLAYED BY THE MODELS; ONE RECURVES TO
THE NORTHEAST AROUND TAU 48 (GFS, GFS ENSEMBLE, NAVGEM, AND
GALWEM), WHILE THE OTHER TRACKS TC 04P DUE EAST THROUGH TAU 72
BEFORE TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST (UKMET AND UKMET ENSEMBLE). THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED JUST NORTH AND SLOWER THAN THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, AS CURRENT TRENDS HAVE SHOWN THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN MOVING THE SYSTEM TOO QUICKLY. DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT
SPREAD IN MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 28
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z, 290900Z, 291500Z AND 292100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 282100
WARNING ATCG MIL 04P SWP 191228205726
2019122818 04P SARAI 011 01 060 04 SATL 025
T000 199S 1783E 070 R064 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 199S 1791E 070 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 198S 1800E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 198S 1790W 060 R050 010 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 197S 1779W 055 R050 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 189S 1751W 045 R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 183S 1707W 040 R034 170 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 100 NW QD
T120 206S 1660W 040 R034 160 NE QD 140 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 011
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 19.9S 178.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9S 178.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 19.9S 179.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 19.8S 180.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 19.8S 179.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 19.7S 177.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 18.9S 175.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 18.3S 170.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 20.6S 166.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 178.5E.
28DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 108
NM SOUTH OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 290300Z, 290900Z, 291500Z AND 292100Z.
//
0419122306 54S1755E 15
0419122312 58S1760E 15
0419122318 63S1762E 15
0419122400 68S1764E 15
0419122406 74S1766E 20
0419122412 78S1764E 20
0419122418 81S1761E 20
0419122500 83S1757E 25
0419122506 88S1757E 25
0419122512 98S1758E 25
0419122518 110S1758E 25
0419122600 120S1758E 25
0419122606 132S1758E 35
0419122612 144S1758E 45
0419122618 157S1755E 45
0419122700 168S1754E 50
0419122700 168S1754E 50
0419122706 180S1755E 55
0419122706 180S1755E 55
0419122712 186S1760E 55
0419122712 186S1760E 55
0419122718 192S1766E 60
0419122718 192S1766E 60
0419122800 199S1772E 65
0419122800 199S1772E 65
0419122800 199S1772E 65
0419122806 202S1775E 65
0419122806 202S1775E 65
0419122806 202S1775E 65
0419122812 201S1779E 70
0419122812 201S1779E 70
0419122812 201S1779E 70
0419122818 199S1783E 70
0419122818 199S1783E 70
0419122818 199S1783E 70
NNNN
0000006300
591
NCNC01 EGRR 282100
03379 444 00090 10047 20000=

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 281500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 04P SWP 191228135144
2019122812 04P SARAI 010 01 055 07 SATL 015
T000 198S 1783E 070 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
085 NE QD 095 SE QD 085 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 170 SE QD
155 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 199S 1793E 070 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 180 SE QD
150 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 199S 1798W 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 180 SE QD
150 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 200S 1788W 060 R050 020 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
120 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 197S 1778W 055 R050 030 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
100 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 190S 1753W 045 R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 110 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 183S 1710W 040 R034 200 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW QD 130 NW QD
T120 208S 1656W 040 R034 210 NE QD 160 SE QD 110 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 19.8S 178.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 281500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 19.8S 178.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8S 178.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 19.9S 179.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 281500
WARNING ATCG MIL 04P SWP 191228135144
2019122812 04P SARAI 010 01 055 07 SATL 015
T000 198S 1783E 070 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 095 SE QD 085 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 170 SE QD 155 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 199S 1793E 070 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 199S 1798W 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 200S 1788W 060 R050 020 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW Q
D 100 NW QD
T048 197S 1778W 055 R050 030 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW Q
D 080 NW QD
T072 190S 1753W 045 R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 110 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 183S 1710W 040 R034 200 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW QD 130 NW QD
T120 208S 1656W 040 R034 210 NE QD 160 SE QD 110 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 19.8S 178.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8S 178.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 19.9S 179.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 19.9S 179.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 20.0S 178.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 19.7S 177.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 19.0S 175.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 18.3S 171.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 20.8S 165.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 178.6E.
28DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (SARAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 102 NM SOUTH OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS
TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT A
T 281200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z, 290300Z, 290900Z AND 291500Z.//
0419122306 54S1755E 15
0419122312 58S1760E 15
0419122318 63S1762E 15
0419122400 68S1764E 15
0419122406 74S1766E 20
0419122412 78S1764E 20
0419122418 81S1761E 20
0419122500 83S1757E 25
0419122506 88S1757E 25
0419122512 98S1758E 25
0419122518 110S1758E 25
0419122600 120S1758E 25
0419122606 132S1758E 35
0419122612 144S1758E 45
0419122618 157S1755E 45
0419122700 168S1754E 50
0419122700 168S1754E 50
0419122706 180S1755E 55
0419122706 180S1755E 55
0419122712 186S1760E 55
0419122712 186S1760E 55
0419122718 192S1766E 60
0419122718 192S1766E 60
0419122800 199S1772E 65
0419122800 199S1772E 65
0419122800 199S1772E 65
0419122806 202S1777E 65
0419122806 202S1777E 65
0419122806 202S1777E 65
0419122812 198S1783E 70
0419122812 198S1783E 70
0419122812 198S1783E 70

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 19.8S 178.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8S 178.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 19.9S 179.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 19.9S 179.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 20.0S 178.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 19.7S 177.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 19.0S 175.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 18.3S 171.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 20.8S 165.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 178.6E.
28DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (SARAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
102
NM SOUTH OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS (KTS)
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WHICH BRIEFLY DEVELOPED AN EYE, SUPPORTING GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE EYE APPEARED JUST PRIOR TO
THE VALID TIME OF THIS FORECAST. THE EYE HAS SINCE DISAPPEARED, BUT
CONTINUES TO ATTEMPT TO REFORM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 70
KTS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE, HEDGED BETWEEN A 281140Z ADVANCED DVORAK
TECHNIQUE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.1 (67 KTS) AND DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KTS) BY PGTW/KNES AND T4.0 (65 KTS)
BY NFFN. TC 04P REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15-
20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE (SST), AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 04P IS
TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A POLEWARD EXTENSION OF A NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER). A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE NER, IMPACTING THE FORECAST TRACK. HOWEVER,
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND DEPTH OF THE TROUGH IN THE
MODELS WHICH RESULTS IN VARIATION IN THE WEAKENING OF THE NER. THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT SINCE THE PREVIOUS
WARNING. NOTABLY, THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS DEPICT AN
EASTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 48 FOLLOWED BY A SHORT NORTHEASTWARD
COURSE PRIOR TO RECURVING THE SYSTEM SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH THE PASSING TROUGH. NAVGEM AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO TURN
TC 04P TO A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK FURTHER WEST THAN THE OTHER MODEL
SOLUTIONS. MOST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT
TO
A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. HOWEVER, THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE AND
THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH ARE CREATING SPREAD IN THE NUMERICAL MODEL
SOLUTIONS. UKMET AND UKMET ENSEMBLE REMAIN THE OUTLIERS WHICH DEPICT
A STEADY EASTWARD TRACK PRIOR TO TROUGH INTERACTION. JTWC TRACK
FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 28
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z, 290300Z, 290900Z AND 291500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 280900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 04P SWP 191228084019
2019122806 04P SARAI 009 01 125 06 SATL 040
T000 202S 1777E 065 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
065 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 185 SE QD
140 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 205S 1787E 065 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 180 SE QD
150 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 206S 1797E 065 R064 005 NE QD 010 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 180 SE QD
150 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 205S 1795W 060 R050 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
130 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 205S 1787W 055 R050 010 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
120 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 198S 1770W 045 R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 110 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 188S 1735W 040 R034 150 NE QD 110 SE QD 120 SW QD 110 NW QD
T120 197S 1694W 040 R034 160 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 19.6S 177.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 280900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 20.2S 177.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S 177.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 20.5S 178.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 280900
WARNING ATCG MIL 04P SWP 191228084019
2019122806 04P SARAI 009 01 125 06 SATL 040
T000 202S 1777E 065 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 055 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 185 SE QD 140 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 205S 1787E 065 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 206S 1797E 065 R064 005 NE QD 010 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 205S 1795W 060 R050 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW Q
D 110 NW QD
T048 205S 1787W 055 R050 010 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW Q
D 100 NW QD
T072 198S 1770W 045 R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 110 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 188S 1735W 040 R034 150 NE QD 110 SE QD 120 SW QD 110 NW QD
T120 197S 1694W 040 R034 160 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 19.6S 177.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S 177.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 19.9S 178.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 20.0S 179.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 20.0S 179.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 19.9S 179.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 19.4S 177.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 18.4S 175.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 17.4S 172.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 19.7S 177.7E.
28DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 103
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z, 281500Z,
282100Z AND 290300Z.//
0419122306 54S1755E 15
0419122312 58S1760E 15
0419122318 63S1762E 15
0419122400 68S1764E 15
0419122406 74S1766E 20
0419122412 78S1764E 20
0419122418 81S1761E 20
0419122500 83S1757E 25
0419122506 88S1757E 25
0419122512 98S1758E 25
0419122518 110S1758E 25
0419122600 120S1758E 25
0419122606 132S1758E 35
0419122612 144S1758E 45
0419122618 157S1755E 45
0419122700 168S1754E 50
0419122700 168S1754E 50
0419122706 180S1755E 55
0419122706 180S1755E 55
0419122712 186S1760E 55
0419122712 186S1760E 55
0419122718 192S1766E 60
0419122718 192S1766E 60
0419122800 196S1775E 65
0419122800 196S1775E 65
0419122800 196S1775E 65

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 20.2S 177.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S 177.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 20.5S 178.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 20.6S 179.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 20.5S 179.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 20.5S 178.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 19.8S 177.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 18.8S 173.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 19.7S 169.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 20.3S 178.0E.
28DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (SARAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
132 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
06 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WHICH IS OBSCURED BY A CIRRUS SHIELD.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN
EXTRAPOLATION OF A 34 NM MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE DEPICTED IN A
280458Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65
KTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65KTS)
BY PGTW AND KNES. TC 04P REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
CONSISTING OF MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM
(27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST), AND GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS JUST NORTH OF AN AREA OF HIGH VWS
WHICH MAY LIMIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO THE NEAR-TERM. TC 04P IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A POLEWARD EXTENSION OF
A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER). A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE NER, SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTING THE
FORECAST TRACK. HOWEVER, THE TIMING AND DEPTH OF THE TROUGH
PASSAGE VARIES BETWEEN MODELS, RESULTING IN VARIATIONS IN THE
WEAKENING AND REORIENTING OF THE NER AND THUS CREATING SLIGHT
VARIATIONS IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE 00Z ECMWF RUN HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER NUMERICAL MODELS, MAINTAINING AN
EASTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 48 WHERE TC 04P BEGINS TO RECURVE TO
THE NORTHEAST. UKMET AND UKMET ENSEMBLE MAINTAIN A GENERALLY
EASTWARD TRACK THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALL OTHER MODEL
SOLUTIONS PORTRAY THE SYSTEM RECURVE SCENARIO AND TRACK TC 04P
NORTHEAST TOWARDS AMERICAN SAMOA. HOWEVER, THERE ARE VARIATIONS IN
THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE RECURVE. NOTABLY, NAVGEM SHOWS THE
TRACK RECURVING SIGNIFICANTLY WEST OF ALL OTHER SOLUTIONS. THE
JTWC TRACK IS PLACED JUST SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO
OFFSET THE NORTHERLY PULL OF THE NAVGEM OUTLIER. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS
25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z, 282100Z, 290300Z AND 290900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 280300
WARNING ATCG MIL 04P SWP 191228022543
2019122800 04P SARAI 008 01 115 09 SATL 025
T000 196S 1775E 065 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 055 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 185 SE QD 140 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 199S 1784E 070 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 200S 1793E 065 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 200S 1799W 060 R050 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 190 SE QD 150 SW Q
D 100 NW QD
T048 199S 1791W 055 R050 010 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW Q
D 090 NW QD
T072 194S 1777W 045 R034 090 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 184S 1752W 040 R034 180 NE QD 090 SE QD 110 SW QD 130 NW QD
T120 174S 1721W 040 R034 200 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 120 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 19.6S 177.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S 177.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 19.9S 178.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 20.0S 179.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 20.0S 179.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 19.9S 179.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 19.4S 177.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 18.4S 175.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 17.4S 172.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 19.7S 177.7E.
28DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 103
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z, 281500Z,
282100Z AND 290300Z.//
0419122306 54S1755E 15
0419122312 58S1760E 15
0419122318 63S1762E 15
0419122400 68S1764E 15
0419122406 74S1766E 20
0419122412 78S1764E 20
0419122418 81S1761E 20
0419122500 83S1757E 25
0419122506 88S1757E 25
0419122512 98S1758E 25
0419122518 110S1758E 25
0419122600 120S1758E 25
0419122606 132S1758E 35
0419122612 144S1758E 45
0419122618 157S1755E 45
0419122700 168S1754E 50
0419122700 168S1754E 50
0419122706 180S1755E 55
0419122706 180S1755E 55
0419122712 186S1760E 55
0419122712 186S1760E 55
0419122718 192S1766E 60
0419122718 192S1766E 60
0419122800 196S1775E 65
0419122800 196S1775E 65
0419122800 196S1775E 65

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 19.6S 177.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S 177.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 19.9S 178.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 20.0S 179.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 20.0S 179.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 19.9S 179.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 19.4S 177.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 18.4S 175.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 17.4S 172.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 19.7S 177.7E.
28DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 103
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 280117Z ATMS 88.2GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTS A BROAD 45 NM DIAMETER MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE AND SUPPORTS
THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KTS IS BASED ON PGTW AND KNES DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE WITH DECENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-20
KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS). THE CYCLONE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO INTENSIFY
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE COOLER SSTS, CONTINUED MODERATE TO
STRONG VWS, AND MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL CAUSE THE
INTENSITY TO WEAKEN. TC 04P IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF A POLEWARD EXTENSION OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
(NER). THERE IS A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THAT IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE NER AND SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THE TRACK OF
TC 04P. THE MODELS HANDLE THE TIMING AND DEPTH OF THIS TROUGH AND
THE ASSOCIATED WEAKENING/REORIENTATION OF THE NER DIFFERENTLY,
LEADING TO A WIDE VARIATION IN THE MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE. NOTABLY,
THE 12Z RUN OF ECMWF NOW TRACKS TC 04P TO THE NORTH BRINGING IT
OVER FIJI BETWEEN TAUS 72 AND 96. FURTHERMORE, THE 18Z RUNS OF THE
GFS, GFS ENSEMBLE, AND NAVGEM RECURVE THE SYSTEM AROUND TAU 72 AND
START TRACKING TC 04P NORTHEAST TOWARDS AMERICAN SAMOA. MEANWHILE,
THE 12Z UK MET AND UK MET ENSEMBLE CONTINUE A DUE EASTERLY TRACK,
WHICH WAS DOMINANT PRIOR TO THE 272100Z JTWC WARNING. THEREFORE,
THE JTWC TRACK CONTINUES TO BE PULLED NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. DUE TO THE
EXTREMELY HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z, 281500Z,
282100Z AND 290300Z.//

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 272100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 04P SWP 191227204727
2019122718 04P SARAI 007 01 130 10 SATL 025
T000 192S 1768E 060 R050 055 NE QD 035 SE QD 070 SW QD 055 NW QD R034
170 NE QD 185 SE QD 130 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 198S 1777E 065 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 170 SE QD
140 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 200S 1784E 065 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
020 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 180 SE QD
140 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 199S 1792E 060 R050 010 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
120 NE QD 180 SE QD 140 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 199S 1799W 055 R050 030 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
100 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 197S 1781W 045 R034 090 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 193S 1758W 040 R034 140 NE QD 090 SE QD 110 SW QD 130 NW QD
T120 188S 1737W 040 R034 210 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 140 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 19.2S 176.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 272100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 19.2S 176.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 176.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 19.8S 177.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 19.2S 176.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 176.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 19.8S 177.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 20.0S 178.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 19.9S 179.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 19.9S 179.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 19.7S 178.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 19.3S 175.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 18.8S 173.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 177.0E.
27DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 112
NM SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 271702Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTS AN EXTREMELY BROAD 76 NM DIAMETER LLCC AND SUPPORTS THE
INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AVERAGING BETWEEN DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KTS) BY PGTW AND T3.5 (55 KTS) BY KNES. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE WITH DECENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (27
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST). THE CYCLONE SHOULD
INTENSIFY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO BEFORE COOLER SST, CONTINUED
MODERATE TO STRONG VWS, AND MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL CAUSE
THE INTENSITY TO WEAKEN. TC 04P IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF A POLEWARD EXTENSION OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
(NER). THERE IS A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THAT IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE NER AND SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THE TRACK OF
TC 04P. THE MODELS HANDLE THE TIMING AND DEPTH OF THIS TROUGH AND
THE ASSOCIATED WEAKENING/REORIENTATION OF THE NER RIDGE
DIFFERENTLY, LEADING TO A WIDE VARIATION IN THE MODEL TRACK
GUIDANCE. NOTABLY, THE 12Z RUN OF ECMWF NOW TRACKS TC 04P TO THE
NORTH BRINGING IT OVER FIJI BETWEEN TAUS 72 AND 96. FURTHERMORE,
THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS, GFS ENSEMBLE, AND GALWEM RECURVE THE
SYSTEM AROUND TAU 72 AND START TRACKING TC 04P NORTHEAST TOWARDS
AMERICAN SAMOA. MEANWHILE, THE UK MET AND UK MET ENSEMBLE CONTINUE
A DUE EASTERLY TRACK THAT HAS BEEN DOMINANT DURING THE PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS. DUE TO THE EXTREMELY HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 280300Z, 280900Z, 281500Z AND 282100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 272100
WARNING ATCG MIL 04P SWP 191227204727
2019122718 04P SARAI 007 01 130 10 SATL 025
T000 192S 1768E 060 R050 055 NE QD 035 SE QD 070 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 185 SE QD 130 SW Q
D 085 NW QD
T012 198S 1777E 065 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 170 SE QD 140 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 200S 1784E 065 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 020 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 180 SE QD 140 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 199S 1792E 060 R050 010 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 180 SE QD 140 SW Q
D 100 NW QD
T048 199S 1799W 055 R050 030 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW Q
D 090 NW QD
T072 197S 1781W 045 R034 090 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 193S 1758W 040 R034 140 NE QD 090 SE QD 110 SW QD 130 NW QD
T120 188S 1737W 040 R034 210 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 140 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 19.2S 176.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 176.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 19.8S 177.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 20.0S 178.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 19.9S 179.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 19.9S 179.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 19.7S 178.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 19.3S 175.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 18.8S 173.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 177.0E.
27DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 112
NM SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
271800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z, 280900Z, 281500Z
AND 282100Z.//
0419122306 54S1755E 15
0419122312 58S1760E 15
0419122318 63S1762E 15
0419122400 68S1764E 15
0419122406 74S1766E 20
0419122412 78S1764E 20
0419122418 81S1761E 20
0419122500 83S1757E 25
0419122506 88S1757E 25
0419122512 98S1758E 25
0419122518 110S1758E 25
0419122600 120S1758E 25
0419122606 132S1758E 35
0419122612 144S1758E 45
0419122618 157S1755E 45
0419122700 168S1754E 50
0419122700 168S1754E 50
0419122706 180S1755E 55
0419122706 180S1755E 55
0419122712 186S1760E 55
0419122712 186S1760E 55
0419122718 192S1768E 60
0419122718 192S1768E 60

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 271500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 04P SWP 191227132327
2019122712 04P SARAI 006 01 140 09 SATL 025
T000 187S 1761E 055 R050 055 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
110 NE QD 145 SE QD 115 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 195S 1771E 060 R050 050 NE QD 065 SE QD 045 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
125 NE QD 165 SE QD 135 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 199S 1782E 065 R064 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 180 SE QD
150 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 200S 1793E 060 R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
130 NE QD 190 SE QD 150 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 201S 1795W 055 R050 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
120 NE QD 210 SE QD 160 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 203S 1769W 050 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
150 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 201S 1740W 045 R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD
T120 201S 1699W 040 R034 220 NE QD 110 SE QD 140 SW QD 180 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 18.7S 176.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 271500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 18.7S 176.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 176.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 19.5S 177.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 271500
WARNING ATCG MIL 04P SWP 191227132327
2019122712 04P SARAI 006 01 140 09 SATL 025
T000 187S 1761E 055 R050 055 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 145 SE QD 115 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 195S 1771E 060 R050 050 NE QD 065 SE QD 045 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 165 SE QD 135 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 199S 1782E 065 R064 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 200S 1793E 060 R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 190 SE QD 150 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 201S 1795W 055 R050 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 210 SE QD 160 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 203S 1769W 050 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 201S 1740W 045 R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD
T120 201S 1699W 040 R034 220 NE QD 110 SE QD 140 SW QD 180 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 18.7S 176.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 176.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 19.5S 177.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 19.9S 178.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 20.0S 179.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 20.1S 179.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 20.3S 176.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 20.1S 174.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 20.1S 169.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 18.9S 176.4E.
27DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (SARAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 136 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND 281500Z.//
0419122306 54S1755E 15
0419122312 58S1760E 15
0419122318 63S1762E 15
0419122400 68S1764E 15
0419122406 74S1766E 20
0419122412 78S1764E 20
0419122418 81S1761E 20
0419122500 83S1757E 25
0419122506 88S1757E 25
0419122512 98S1758E 25
0419122518 110S1758E 25
0419122600 120S1758E 25
0419122606 132S1758E 35
0419122612 144S1758E 45
0419122618 157S1755E 45
0419122700 168S1754E 50
0419122700 168S1754E 50
0419122706 180S1755E 55
0419122706 180S1755E 55
0419122712 187S1761E 55
0419122712 187S1761E 55
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 18.7S 176.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 176.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 19.5S 177.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 19.9S 178.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 20.0S 179.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 20.1S 179.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 20.3S 176.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 20.1S 174.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 20.1S 169.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 18.9S 176.4E.
27DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (SARAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 136
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A BULLSEYE 270944Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS
PROVIDES GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND THE 34 AND 50 KT
WIND RADII. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ON THE LOW SIDE OF AGENCY DVORAK
FIXES FROM T3.5 (55 KTS) TO T4.0 (65 KTS) DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
ASCAT PASS WHICH SHOWED A LARGE SWATH OF 45-50 KT WINDS AND A SMALL
POCKET OF 50-55 KT WINDS. WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-20
KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE (SST), THE ENVIRONMENT IS SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE. TC 04P IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A POLEWARD EXTENSION OF A
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER). FROM TAU 24 TO TAU 120, THE ORIENTATION
OF THE NER WILL CAUSE TC 04P TO TRACK GENERALLY EASTWARD. THE CYCLONE
SHOULD INTENSIFY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO BEFORE COOL SST AND
CONTINUED MODERATE TO STRONG VWS WILL CAUSE THE INTENSITY TO WEAKEN.
THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, WITH NAVGEM
AND ECMWF DEPICTING A MEANDERING TRACK THAT REMAINS NEAR VITI LEVU
ISLAND WHILE THE OTHER MEMBERS SHOW AN EASTWARD TRACK SIMILAR TO THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST. BASED ON THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND 281500Z.//

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 270300
WARNING ATCG MIL 04P SWP 191227020149
2019122700 04P SARAI 004 01 185 09 SATL 030
T000 166S 1754E 050 R050 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 160 SE QD 115 SW Q
D 075 NW QD
T012 181S 1757E 055 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 180 SE QD 120 SW Q
D 090 NW QD
T024 188S 1767E 060 R050 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 170 SE QD 130 SW Q
D 100 NW QD
T036 192S 1780E 065 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 180 SE QD 140 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 195S 1795E 065 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 190 SE QD 150 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 199S 1781W 065 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 190 SE QD 160 SW QD 130 NW QD
T096 199S 1750W 055 R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW Q
D 100 NW QD
T120 195S 1708W 045 R034 160 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 150 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 16.6S 175.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 175.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 18.1S 175.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 18.8S 176.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 19.2S 178.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 19.5S 179.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 19.9S 178.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 19.9S 175.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 19.5S 170.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 175.5E.
27DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (SARAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
194 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 270900Z, 271500Z, 272100Z AND 280300Z.//
0419122306 54S1755E 15
0419122312 58S1760E 15
0419122318 63S1762E 15
0419122400 68S1764E 15
0419122406 74S1766E 20
0419122412 78S1764E 20
0419122418 81S1761E 20
0419122500 83S1757E 25
0419122506 88S1757E 25
0419122512 98S1758E 25
0419122518 110S1758E 25
0419122600 120S1758E 25
0419122606 132S1758E 35
0419122612 144S1758E 45
0419122618 157S1755E 45
0419122700 166S1754E 50
0419122700 166S1754E 50

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z --- NEAR 15.7S 175.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 175.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 17.6S 175.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 18.5S 176.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 19.1S 177.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 19.4S 178.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 19.9S 178.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 20.2S 175.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 19.8S 171.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 175.5E.
26DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (SARAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
220 NM NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF ELONGATED AND DEEP
CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND
IS BASED ON A 261712Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI)
ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. TC 04P IS
EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS) AND HAS
AN EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL BUT LIMITED EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT, NEAR 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 04P IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD
WHILE POSITIONED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
(NER). AS THE NER SHIFTS EQUATORWARD AND REORIENTS, TC 04P WILL
BEGIN TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY EASTWARD BY TAU 72.
FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW TC 04P TO STEADILY INTENSIFY, REACHING 65
KNOTS BY TAU 36. BEYOND TAU 72, TC 04P WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN
DUE TO DETERIORATING UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS. THE MAJORITY OF DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT INDICATING A SOUTHWARD TRACK
WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE EAST. ECMWF IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
OTHER MEMBERS OF THE CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 36. HOWEVER, AFTER TAU
36, ECMWF INDICATES A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. ECMWF IS THE ONLY MODEL
INDICATING THIS SOLUTION. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 270300Z, 270900Z, 271500Z AND 272100Z. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z, 270900Z,
271500Z AND 272100Z.//

>

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