Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for AMBALI-19 Off-shore from 05 Dec 2019 06:00 UTC to 08 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC

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Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for AMBALI-19

Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

08/12 02:53 WTXS32PGTW080300RRA

08/12 02:49 WTXS32PGTW080300

08/12 01:38 WTIO31FMEE080132

08/12 01:38 WTIO30FMEE080132

08/12 00:33 WTIO20FMEE080030

07/12 19:34 WTIO31FMEE071926

07/12 19:34 WTIO30FMEE071926

07/12 18:38 WTIO20FMEE071834

07/12 14:17 WTXS32PGTW071500RRA

07/12 14:13 WTXS32PGTW071500

07/12 12:57 WTIO31FMEE071240RRA

07/12 12:54 WTIO31FMEE071240

07/12 12:54 WTIO30FMEE071240

07/12 12:30 WTIO20FMEE071226

07/12 07:04 WTIO31FMEE070624RRA

07/12 07:04 WTIO30FMEE070624RRA

07/12 07:01 WTIO31FMEE070624

07/12 07:01 WTIO30FMEE070624

07/12 06:22 WTIO20FMEE070615

07/12 02:56 WTXS32PGTW070300RRA

07/12 02:49 WTXS32PGTW070300

07/12 00:37 WTIO31FMEE070028RRA

07/12 00:37 WTIO30FMEE070028RRA

07/12 00:35 WTIO31FMEE070028

07/12 00:35 WTIO30FMEE070028

07/12 00:04 WTIO20FMEE070002

06/12 18:57 WTIO31FMEE061836RRA

06/12 18:57 WTIO30FMEE061836RRA

06/12 18:55 WTIO31FMEE061836

06/12 18:55 WTIO30FMEE061836

06/12 18:14 WTIO20FMEE061810

06/12 15:03 WTXS32PGTW061500RRA

06/12 14:59 WTXS32PGTW061500

06/12 12:35 WTIO31FMEE061231RRA

06/12 12:35 WTIO30FMEE061231RRA

06/12 12:33 WTIO31FMEE061231

06/12 12:33 WTIO30FMEE061231

06/12 12:14 WTIO20FMEE061209RRA

06/12 12:11 WTIO20FMEE061209

06/12 07:14 WTIO31FMEE060631RRA

06/12 07:14 WTIO30FMEE060631RRA

06/12 07:12 WTIO31FMEE060631

06/12 07:12 WTIO30FMEE060631

06/12 06:32 WTIO20FMEE060623

06/12 03:42 WTXS32PGTW060300RRA

06/12 03:13 WTXS32PGTW060300

06/12 00:49 WTIO31FMEE060045RRA

06/12 00:49 WTIO30FMEE060045RRA

06/12 00:47 WTIO31FMEE060045

06/12 00:47 WTIO30FMEE060045

06/12 00:21 WTIO20FMEE060018RRA

06/12 00:19 WTIO20FMEE060018

05/12 21:04 WTXS32PGTW052100RRA

05/12 21:00 WTXS32PGTW052100

05/12 18:39 WTIO31FMEE051818RRA

05/12 18:39 WTIO30FMEE051818RRA

05/12 18:37 WTIO31FMEE051818

05/12 18:37 WTIO30FMEE051818

05/12 18:11 WTIO20FMEE051807

05/12 15:02 WTXS32PGTW051500RRA

05/12 14:44 WTXS32PGTW051500

05/12 12:46 WTIO31FMEE051243RRA

05/12 12:46 WTIO30FMEE051243RRA

05/12 12:44 WTIO31FMEE051243CCA

05/12 12:44 WTIO30FMEE051243CCA

05/12 12:43 WTIO31FMEE051233RRA

05/12 12:43 WTIO30FMEE051233RRA

05/12 12:40 WTIO31FMEE051233

05/12 12:40 WTIO30FMEE051233

05/12 12:13 WTIO20FMEE051208

05/12 08:30 WTXS32PGTW050900RRA

05/12 08:19 WTXS32PGTW050900

05/12 07:08 WTIO31FMEE050649RRA

05/12 07:08 WTIO30FMEE050649RRA

05/12 07:06 WTIO31FMEE050649

05/12 07:06 WTIO30FMEE050649

05/12 06:38 WTIO20FMEE050629

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 080300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMBALI) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMBALI) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 14.9S 62.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 62.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 15.8S 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 15.1S 62.0E.
08DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMBALI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 419
NM NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 12 FEET. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS LIMITED FLARING

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMBALI) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMBALI) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 14.9S 62.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 62.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 15.8S 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 15.1S 62.0E.
08DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMBALI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 419
NM NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 12 FEET. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS LIMITED FLARING CONVECTIVE BANDING WHICH HAS BECOME SEPARATED FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THERE IS POOR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION, PLACED USING A COMBINATION OF THE EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 072108Z AMSR 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET BETWEEN PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) AND A 072345Z ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF 28 KNOTS. A 071801Z METOP-B PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS A SWATH OF 20 KNOTS POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC. DESPITE LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (28-29 CELISUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, THE UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS CONTINUING TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, MAKING THE ENVIRONMENT UNFAVORABLE OVERALL. FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TC 03S WILL TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST. INCREASING VWS AND DIMINISHING OUTFLOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM UNTIL IT DISSIPATES BY TAU 12. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS SET ALONG CONSENSUS WITH POOR CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND ITS CURRENT POSITION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 080132
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 18/3/20192020
1.A DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE 3 (AMBALI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 08/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.8 S / 60.9 E
(DOUZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET SOIXANTE DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1006 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 25 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
NON RENSEIGNE

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PEU PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 08/12/2019 12 UTC: 13.2 S / 59.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
24H: 09/12/2019 00 UTC: 13.6 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
SUR LES IMAGES SATELLITES DE LA SECONDE PARTIE DE NUIT UN VORTEX BIEN
DEFINI DEPOURVU DE CONVECTION EST APPARU A L'OUEST DE LA POSITION
INTIALEMENT ESTIMEE. IL S'AGIT SANS DOUTE DES RESTES DU SYSTEME
AMABALI. AUCUNE INDICE NE SUGGERE LA PRESENCE D'UNE AUTRE CIRCULATION
PLUS PROCHE DE LA CONVECTION PROFONDE.
CE MINIMUM NE DEVRAIT PLUS AVOIR DE POTENTIEL D'INTENSIFICATION ET
DEVRAIT SE COMBLER.

CECI EST LE DERNIER BULLETIN CONCERNANT AMBALI.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 080132
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/3/20192020
1.A REMNANT LOW 3 (AMBALI)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/08 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.8 S / 60.9 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1006 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/08 12 UTC: 13.2 S / 59.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW
24H: 2019/12/09 00 UTC: 13.6 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
ON THE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE LATE NIGHT, A WELL DEFINED VORTEX
WITHOUT CONVECTION APPEARED WEST OF THE INTIAL ESTIMATE. IS IS LIKELY
THE REMNANTS OF AMBALI. NO DATA SUGGEST AN OTHER CIRCULATION CLOSER
TO THE CONVECTION.
THIS MINIMUM IS EXPECTED TO FILL UP WITH NO POTENTIAL FOR DEEPENING.

THIS IS THE LAST WARNING ON AMBALI.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 080030
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/12/2019
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 017/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 08/12/2019 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: REMNANT LOW 3 (AMBALI) 1006 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.8 S / 60.9 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER FAR FROM THE CENTER UP TO 300 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE

CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25KT
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/12/08 AT 12 UTC:
13.2 S / 59.2 E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, REMNANT LOW
24H, VALID 2019/12/09 AT 00 UTC:
13.6 S / 57.8 E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, REMNANT LOW

OTHER INFORMATION:
LAST WARNING ISSUED ON AMBALI.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 071926
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 17/3/20192020
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 3 (AMBALI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 07/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.6 S / 64.0 E
(DOUZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATRE DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1000 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SO: 70 NO: 70
34 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PEU PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 08/12/2019 06 UTC: 13.0 S / 63.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
24H: 08/12/2019 18 UTC: 13.7 S / 61.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
AMBALI S'EST CONSIDERABLEMENT AFFAIBLI AUJOURD'HUI AVEC UNE
CONVECTION PROFONDE PRESENTE UNIQUEMENT AU SEIN D'UNE LIGNE DE
CONVERGENCE A L'EST DU SYSTEME. LA POSITION ET L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME
RESTENT TRES INCERTAINE. IL N'EST D'AILLEURS PLUS SURE QU'UNE
CIRCULATION FERMEE EXISTE ENCORE. DANS L'ATTENTE DE DONNEES
SCATTEROMETRIQUE SUR LA ZONE, LE STADE DE TEMPETE EST MAINTENUE.

LE FLUX DIRECTEUR DESCEND RAPIDEMENT DANS LES BASSES COUCHES. LE
CENTRE RESIDUEL DE BASSES COUCHES DEVRAIT ETRE REPRIS PAR LE FLUX
D'ALIZES CETTE NUIT PROCHAINE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 071926
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/3/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (AMBALI)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/07 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.6 S / 64.0 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 70 NW: 70
34 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/08 06 UTC: 13.0 S / 63.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
24H: 2019/12/08 18 UTC: 13.7 S / 61.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
AMBALI HAS WEAKEN RAPIDLY TODAY WITH DEEP CONVECTION NOW ONLY LOCATED
WITHIN A CONVERGENCE LINE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. LOCATION OF THE CENTER
AND MAXIMUM WINDS ARE VERY UNCERTAIN. IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT A CLOSED
CIRCULATION STILL EXIST. WHILE AWAITING FOR SCATTEROMETRIC DATA,
TROPICAL STORM WINDS ARE MAINTAINED.

THE STEERING LEVEL IS SHIFTING TOWARDS THE LOW LEVELS. THEREFORE THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED WESTWARDS WITHIN THE TRADEWINDS AS A
REMNANT LOW TONIGHT.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 071834
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/12/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 016/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 07/12/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (AMBALI) 1000 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.6 S / 64.0 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, IN THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 25
NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 40
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/12/08 AT 06 UTC:
13.0 S / 63.1 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, FILLING UP
24H, VALID 2019/12/08 AT 18 UTC:
13.7 S / 61.9 E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, REMNANT LOW

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 071500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMBALI) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMBALI) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 13.2S 63.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S 63.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 13.9S 62.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 14.8S 61.5E

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMBALI) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMBALI) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 13.2S 63.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S 63.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 13.9S 62.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 14.8S 61.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 15.6S 60.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 13.4S 62.8E.
07DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AMBALI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
528 NM NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
08 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS SUPPRESSED CONVECTION TO THE WEST
AND A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST THAT IS OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION, PLACED USING A COMBINATION OF THE MSI AND A 071147Z SSMIS
37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT SUGGESTED CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE
EASTERN RAIN BANDS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH PGTW
AND KNES DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES THAT FALL BETWEEN T2.5 (35 KTS)
AND T4.0 (65 KTS). MODERATE (10-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29 CELISUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ARE BEING OFFSET BY SUBSIDENCE TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM
TO MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT UNFAVORABLE OVERALL. FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST, TC 03S WILL TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). INCREASING VWS AND DIMINISHING OUTFLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM UNTIL IT DISSIPATES BY TAU 36. WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH DRIVES THE SYSTEM POLEWARD UNTIL TAU
48, THERE IS STRONG AGREEMENT IN NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST IS HEDGED WEST OF CONSENSUS, TO OFFSET THE INFLUENCE
OF NAVGEM, WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
071200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z AND 081500Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 071240 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 16/3/20192020
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 3 (AMBALI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 07/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.4 S / 63.3 E
(DOUZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE TROIS DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/4.0/W 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 992 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SO: 70 NO: 70
34 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 08/12/2019 00 UTC: 12.9 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
24H: 08/12/2019 12 UTC: 13.3 S / 61.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
36H: 09/12/2019 00 UTC: 13.6 S / 60.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
48H: 09/12/2019 12 UTC: 13.7 S / 59.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=3.0 CI=4.0

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 071240
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 16/3/20192020
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 3 (AMBALI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 07/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.4 S / 63.3 E
(DOUZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE TROIS DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/4.0/W 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 992 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SO: 70 NO: 70
34 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 08/12/2019 00 UTC: 12.9 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
24H: 08/12/2019 12 UTC: 13.3 S / 61.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
36H: 09/12/2019 00 UTC: 13.6 S / 60.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
48H: 09/12/2019 12 UTC: 13.7 S / 59.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=3.0 CI=4.0

AMBALI S'EST CONSIDERABLEMENT AFFAIBLI AUJOURD'HUI AVEC UNE
CONVECTION PROFONDE PRESENTE UNIQUEMENT AU SEIN D'UNE LIGNE DE
CONVERGENCE PRESENTE A L'EST DU SYSTEME. LA PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME
IMPLIQUE UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT RAPIDE DU CHAMP DE VENT. L'INTENSITE
INITIALE EST FIXEE A 45 KT EN TENANT COMPTE DES ESTIMATIONS
OBJECTIVES DISPONIBLES (SATCON ET ADT).

AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT RAPIDE QUI SE VERIFIE, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR
DESCEND RAPIDEMENT DANS LES BASSES COUCHES. LE CENTRE RESIDUEL DE
BASSES COUCHES DEVRAIT ETRE REPRIS PAR LE FLUX D'ALIZES A PARTIR DE
LA NUIT PROCHAINE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 071240
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/3/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (AMBALI)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/07 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.4 S / 63.3 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/4.0/W 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 70 NW: 70
34 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/08 00 UTC: 12.9 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2019/12/08 12 UTC: 13.3 S / 61.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
36H: 2019/12/09 00 UTC: 13.6 S / 60.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2019/12/09 12 UTC: 13.7 S / 59.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=3.0 CI=4.0

AMBALI HAS WEAKEN RAPIDLY TODAY WITH DEEP CONVECTION NOW ONLY LOCATED
WITHIN A CONVERGENCE LINE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE VERY SMALL SIZE OF
THE SYSTEM IMPLIES A RAPID WEAKENING OF THE SURFACE WINDFIELD. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 45 KT BASED ON THE LATEST OBJECTIVE
GUIDANCE (SATCON AND ADT)

WITH THE ONGOING RAPID WEAKENING TREND, THE STEERING LEVEL IS
SHIFTING TOWARDS THE LOW LEVELS. THEREFORE THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BE STEERED WESTWARDS WITHIN THE TRADEWINDS AS A REMNANT LOW AS SOON
AS TONIGHT.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 071226
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/12/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 015/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 07/12/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (AMBALI) 992 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.4 S / 63.3 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 120 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
25 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 40
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/12/08 AT 00 UTC:
12.9 S / 62.4 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2019/12/08 AT 12 UTC:
13.3 S / 61.5 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, FILLING UP

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 070624 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/3/20192020
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 3 (AMBALI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 07/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.3 S / 63.2 E
(DOUZE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE TROIS DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 980 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 11 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SO: 70 NO: 70
34 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 50
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: NON RENSEIGNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 07/12/2019 18 UTC: 13.4 S / 63.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 08/12/2019 06 UTC: 14.1 S / 62.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 08/12/2019 18 UTC: 14.3 S / 61.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
48H: 09/12/2019 06 UTC: 14.0 S / 59.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=4.0 CI=4.0

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 070624 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/3/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (AMBALI)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/07 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.3 S / 63.2 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 11 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 70 NW: 70
34 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: NIL

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/07 18 UTC: 13.4 S / 63.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/12/08 06 UTC: 14.1 S / 62.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/12/08 18 UTC: 14.3 S / 61.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2019/12/09 06 UTC: 14.0 S / 59.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=4.0 CI=4.0

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 070624
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/3/20192020
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 3 (AMBALI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 07/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.3 S / 63.2 E
(DOUZE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE TROIS DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 980 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 11 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SO: 70 NO: 70
34 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 50
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: NON RENSEIGNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 07/12/2019 18 UTC: 13.4 S / 63.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 08/12/2019 06 UTC: 14.1 S / 62.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 08/12/2019 18 UTC: 14.3 S / 61.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
48H: 09/12/2019 06 UTC: 14.0 S / 59.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=4.0 CI=4.0

LA RE-ANALSE DES DONNEES MICRO-ONDES ET SCATTEROMETRIQUES COMPLETES
DES DERNIERES 12H A CONDUIT A CORRIGER LES POSITIONS ASSOCIEES
(NOUVELLE ESTIMATION DE LA POSITION DE 00Z: 12S / 63E). AMBALI SE
DEPLACE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD-EST DEPUIS HIER APRES-MIDI. LES
IMAGES MICRO-ONDES DE LA FIN DE NUIT ONT MONTRE QUE LE SYSTEME
RESISTE ENCORE BIEN AU CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPO A 30 KT ET
L'INTRUSION D'AIR SEC ASSOCIEE. EN IMAGERIE CLASSIQUE, UN OEIL EST
TEMPORAIREMENT REAPPARU ENTRE 02Z ET 04Z. DEPUIS LA CONFIGURATION
NUAGEUSE EST MOINS BONNE AVEC DES SOMMETS SE RECHAUFFANT
SENSIBLEMENT. EN CONSEQUENCE L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME EST ESTIMEE
TEMPORAIREMENT STABILISEE.

LA TRAJECTOIRE SUD-EST S'EST ETABLIE SUR LA FACE SUD-OUEST D'UNE
DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE DE MOYENNE TROPO. EN RESTANT SUR UNE
HYPOTHESE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT FRANC PREVU A COURT TERME SOUS L'EFFET DE
L'AIR SEC ET DU CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPO, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR
DEVRAIT REDESCENDRE DANS LES BAS NIVEAUX INDUISANT UNE TRAJECTOIRE SE
REDRESSANT VERS LE SUD-OUEST PUIS L'OUEST AVEC UN MINIMUM SE
COMBLANT.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 070624
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/3/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (AMBALI)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/07 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.3 S / 63.2 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 11 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 70 NW: 70
34 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: NIL

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/07 18 UTC: 13.4 S / 63.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/12/08 06 UTC: 14.1 S / 62.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/12/08 18 UTC: 14.3 S / 61.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2019/12/09 06 UTC: 14.0 S / 59.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=4.0 CI=4.0

RE-ANALYSIS OF MW DATA AND FULL SCATT DATA OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS HAS
ALLOWED TO SHIFT EASTWARDS THE OBSERVED TRACK (NEW ESTIMATE OF THE
00Z POSITION: 12S / 63E). AMBALI IS MOVING GENERALLY SOUTH-EASTWARDS
SINCE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST MW IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM HAS
BUILD BACK AN INNER-CORE DESPITE 30 KT MID-LEVELS SHEAR AND THE
ASSOCIATED DRY AIR INTRUSION. AN EYE APPEARED TEMPORARILY ON IR
IMAGERY BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z. SINCE THAT TIME THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS
STARTED AGAIN TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS. BASED ON
ALL ABOVE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HOLD AT 60 KT.

THE SOUTH-EASTERLY TRACK IS STEERED OVER THE SOUTH-WESTERN EDGE OF A
MID-LEVEL EQUATORIAL RIDGE. THE MAIN HYPOTHESIS REMAINS THAT THIS
MIDGET STORM WILL WEAKEN AT SHORT LEAD TIMES UNDER THE NEGATIVE
EFFECT OF THE MID-LEVELS SHEAR AND THE ASSOCIATED DRY AIR INTRUSION.
THE STEERING FLOW LEVEL IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO SHIFT DOWNWARDS AND
THE WEAKENING STORM SHOULD GRADUALLY TRACK SOUTH-WESTWARDS AND THEN
WESTWARDS AS A FILLING UP LOW.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 070615
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/12/2019
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 07/12/2019 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (AMBALI) 980 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.3 S / 63.2 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 120 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 15 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 40
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/12/07 AT 18 UTC:
13.4 S / 63.3 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2019/12/08 AT 06 UTC:
14.1 S / 62.6 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
THE CENTER IS RELOCALISED EASTWARDS (NEW ESTIMATE FOR THE 00Z
POSITION: 12S / 63E)=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 070300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMBALI) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMBALI) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 12.0S 62.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0S 62.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 12.5S 61.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMBALI) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMBALI) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 12.0S 62.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0S 62.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 12.5S 61.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 12.9S 61.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 13.6S 60.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 14.3S 59.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 15.8S 58.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 12.1S 62.6E.
07DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AMBALI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
583 NM NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY DECAYING SYSTEM WITH
CYCLING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO AN EMBEDDED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE CLEAR MICROWAVE EYE EVIDENT IN A 062310Z SSMIS 91GHZ
COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE
APPARENT WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES OF T4.5-5.0 77-90 KNOTS) AND
A 062345Z ADVANCED DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 67 KNOTS. TC 03S CONTINUES TO
TRACK THROUGH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST), BUT IS WEAKENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES
BEGIN TO ERODE THE OUTFLOW CHANNELS. TC 03S IS TRACKING ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STR POSITIONED TO THE EAST. AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS ALONG THIS RIDGE AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN A SECOND DEEP LAYER
RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM BY TAU
12, CAUSING THE FORECAST TRACK TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD. AS THE SYSTEM
TRAVELS ALONG THIS SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK IT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 48 AND FINISH DISSIPATING
BY TAU 72. NAVGEM IS A SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERN OUTLIER WHICH CONTINUES
DIRECTLY POLEWARD. DUE TO THE COMPLEX STEERING PATTERN AND COMPETING
STEERING RIDGES IN THE MID AND LOWER LEVELS, THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN TC 03S WILL BEGIN TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD. THE
SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IS 55NM BY TAU 72, LENDING GOOD CONFIDENCE
TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK ONCE THE TURN HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 071500Z AND 080300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 070028 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/3/20192020
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 3 (AMBALI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 07/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.2 S / 62.0 E
(DOUZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE DEUX DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 980 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 80 SE: 110 SO: 90 NO: 70
34 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SO: 60 NO: 60
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 50 NO: 50

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 07/12/2019 12 UTC: 12.6 S / 61.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 08/12/2019 00 UTC: 13.0 S / 61.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 08/12/2019 12 UTC: 13.4 S / 60.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
48H: 09/12/2019 00 UTC: 13.9 S / 59.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
60H: 09/12/2019 12 UTC: 14.5 S / 58.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.5.CI=4.0

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 070028 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/3/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (AMBALI)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/07 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.2 S / 62.0 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 80 SE: 110 SW: 90 NW: 70
34 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 60 NW: 60
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 50 NW: 50

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/07 12 UTC: 12.6 S / 61.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/12/08 00 UTC: 13.0 S / 61.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/12/08 12 UTC: 13.4 S / 60.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2019/12/09 00 UTC: 13.9 S / 59.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW
60H: 2019/12/09 12 UTC: 14.5 S / 58.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5.CI=4.0

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 070028
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/3/20192020
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 3 (AMBALI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 07/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.2 S / 62.0 E
(DOUZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE DEUX DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 980 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 80 SE: 110 SO: 90 NO: 70
34 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SO: 60 NO: 60
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 50 NO: 50

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 07/12/2019 12 UTC: 12.6 S / 61.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 08/12/2019 00 UTC: 13.0 S / 61.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 08/12/2019 12 UTC: 13.4 S / 60.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
48H: 09/12/2019 00 UTC: 13.9 S / 59.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
60H: 09/12/2019 12 UTC: 14.5 S / 58.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.5;CI=4.0

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LA CONVECTION A PROXIMITE D'AMBALI A
BIEN RESISTEE. CEPENDANT SUR LES DERNIERS INSTANTS, L'EFFET DE
L'INTRUSION D'AIR SEC ET DU CISAILLEMENT SONT BIEN NOTABLES.
L'INTENSITE PEUT ENCORE ETRE ESTIMEE A 4.0 EN DVORAK SOIT DES VENTS
DE L'ORDRE DE 60KT. AMBALI EST DONC DECLASSEE EN FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE ET L'INTENSITE VA CONTINUER DE FAIBLIR TRES RAPIDEMENT.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE : AMBALI SUIT
UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD. UNE FOIS QUE LE SYSTEME
SERA AFFAIBLI, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR DEVRAIT REDESCENDRE DANS LES BAS
NIVEAUX INDUISANT UNE TRAJECTOIRE ORIENTEE GLOBALEMENT AU SUD-OUEST.
LA PLUPART DES MODELES CONTINUE DE MAL ANALYSE L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME
CE QUI REND LEUR FLUX DIRECTEUR TROP BAS ET DONC TROP OUEST. AINSI,
LE TIMING DU VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-OUEST RESTE INCERTAIN, LA TAILLE DU
CONE D'INCERTITUDE DE LA TRAJECTOIRE REFLETANT CE FAIT. LE MINIMUM
RESIDUEL DEVRAIT ENSUITE DERIVER VERS LE SUD-OUEST EN CONTINUANT DE
SE COMBLER JUSQU'A LUNDI.

AVEC L'APPROCHE D'UN TALWEG D'ALTITUDE AU SUD-OUEST, LE CISAILLEMENT
DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE TOURNE AU SECTEUR OUEST EN SE RENFORCANT.
COMBINE A LA PRESENCE D'AIR SEC, DES MECANISMES D'INJECTION D'AIR SEC
DANS LA COUCHE LIMITE SONT SUSCEPTIBLES DE CONTINUER A AFFAIBLIR
RAPIDEMENT AMBALI. LA TENDANCE A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT RAPIDE SE RETROUVE
EGALEMENT DANS LES MODELES NUMERIQUES DISPONIBLES, LA PETITE TAILLE
DU SYSTEME LE RENDANT TRES VULNERABLE A SON ENVIRONNEMENT.

DU FAIT DE LA PRESENTE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE,
AMBALI NE PRESENTE PAS DE RISQUE POUR LES TERRES DE LA ZONE DES
MASCAREIGNES. IL EST TOUTEFOIS PRUDENT DE RESTER INFORMER SUR CE
SYSTEME QUI DEVRAIT RAPIDEMENT S'AFFAIBLIR.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 070028
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/3/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (AMBALI)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/07 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.2 S / 62.0 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 80 SE: 110 SW: 90 NW: 70
34 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 60 NW: 60
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 50 NW: 50

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/07 12 UTC: 12.6 S / 61.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/12/08 00 UTC: 13.0 S / 61.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/12/08 12 UTC: 13.4 S / 60.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2019/12/09 00 UTC: 13.9 S / 59.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW
60H: 2019/12/09 12 UTC: 14.5 S / 58.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5;CI=4.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION NEAR AMBALI HAS RESISTED WELL.
HOWEVER, IN THE LAST MOMENTS, THE EFFECT OF DRY AIR INTRUSION AND
WINDSHEAR IS QUITE NOTICEABLE. THE INTENSITY CAN STILL BE ESTIMATED
AT 4.0 IN DVORAK WITH WINDS OF ABOUT 60KT. AMBALI IS THEREFORE
DOWNGRADED TO A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM AND THE INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE
TO DECLINE VERY QUICKLY.

NO CHANGES IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST : AMBALI FOLLOWS A GENERAL
SOUTHWARDS TRACK. ONCE THE SYSTEM IS WEAKENED, THE STEERING FLOW
SHOULD COME BACK DOWN TO THE LOW LEVELS INDUCING A GENERALLY
SOUTH-WESTERLY TRACK. MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO MISANALYZE THE
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM WHICH MAKES THEIR DIRECTIONAL FLOW TOO LOW
AND THEREFORE TOO WESTERN. THIS MAKES THE TIMING OF THE
SOUTH-WESTERLY TURN UNCERTAIN. THE SIZE OF THE DYNAMICAL UNCERTAINTY
CONE ILLUSTRATES THIS. FROM MONDAY, THE RESIDUAL LOW SHOULD DRIFT
GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE FILLING UP.

WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH IN THE SOUTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM,
THE MID-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXEPCTED TO BECOME WESTERLY AND
STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. COMBINED WITH DRY AIR INTRUSIONS,
PROCESSES OF COOL AIR DOWNWARD ADVECTIONS INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AMBALI. A RAPID WEAKENING
TENDENCY IS ALSO FOUND IN THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE, THE SMALL
SIZE OF THE SYSTEM MAKING IT VERY VULNERABLE TO ENVIRONMENTAL
FORCINGS.

DUE TO THE PRESENT TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST, AMBALI DOES NOT
PRESENT A RISK FOR THE LANDS IN THE MASCARENE AREA. HOWEVER, IT IS
PRUDENT TO REMAIN INFORMED ABOUT THIS SYSTEM, WHICH SHOULD RAPIDLY
WEAKEN.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 070002
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/12/2019
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 07/12/2019 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (AMBALI) 980 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.2 S / 62.0 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 1200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 230 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 45 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 40
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/12/07 AT 12 UTC:
12.6 S / 61.9 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2019/12/08 AT 00 UTC:
13.0 S / 61.1 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 061836 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/3/20192020
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 3 (AMBALI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 06/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 11.9 S / 62.1 E
(ONZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE DEUX DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 972 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 80 SE: 110 SO: 90 NO: 70
34 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SO: 60 NO: 60
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 50 NO: 50
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SO: 40 NO: 40

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 07/12/2019 06 UTC: 12.5 S / 62.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 07/12/2019 18 UTC: 13.0 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 08/12/2019 06 UTC: 13.3 S / 60.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
48H: 08/12/2019 18 UTC: 13.7 S / 59.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
60H: 09/12/2019 06 UTC: 14.3 S / 58.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.0.CI=4.5

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 061836 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/3/20192020
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (AMBALI)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/06 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.9 S / 62.1 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 972 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 80 SE: 110 SW: 90 NW: 70
34 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 60 NW: 60
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 50 NW: 50
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/07 06 UTC: 12.5 S / 62.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/12/07 18 UTC: 13.0 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/12/08 06 UTC: 13.3 S / 60.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2019/12/08 18 UTC: 13.7 S / 59.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
60H: 2019/12/09 06 UTC: 14.3 S / 58.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0.CI=4.5

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 061836
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/3/20192020
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 3 (AMBALI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 06/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 11.9 S / 62.1 E
(ONZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE DEUX DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 972 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 80 SE: 110 SO: 90 NO: 70
34 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SO: 60 NO: 60
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 50 NO: 50
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SO: 40 NO: 40

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 07/12/2019 06 UTC: 12.5 S / 62.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 07/12/2019 18 UTC: 13.0 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 08/12/2019 06 UTC: 13.3 S / 60.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
48H: 08/12/2019 18 UTC: 13.7 S / 59.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
60H: 09/12/2019 06 UTC: 14.3 S / 58.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.0;CI=4.5

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE D'AMBALI CONTINUE DE SE DEGRADER SOUS
L'EFFET D'UN CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, COMME MONTRE SUR
LES CARTES D'ANALYSES DU CIMSS. LA CONFIGURATION EN CDO LAISSE ENCORE
DES POUSSEES CONVECTIVES INTENSES PRES DU CENTRE. LA DERNIERE PASSE
ASCAT NE PERMET PAS DE LOCALISER LES VENTS CYCLONIQUES QUI SONT
LOCALISES SUR UNE TROP COURTE DISTANCE DU CENTRE. LES VENTS SONT
CEPENDANT FAIBLISSANTS ET AMBALI NE DEVRAIT PLUS TARDER A ETRE
DECLASSE EN FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE : AMBALI SUIT
UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD. UNE FOIS QUE LE SYSTEME
SERA AFFAIBLI, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR DEVRAIT REDESCENDRE DANS LES BAS
NIVEAUX INDUISANT UNE TRAJECTOIRE ORIENTEE GLOABLEMENT AU SUD-OUEST.
L'INTENSITE ANALYSEE PAR LES MODELES RESTE BIEN TROP BASSE PAR
RAPPORT A L'OBSERVATION, CE QUI REND LEUR FLUX DIRECTEUR TROP BAS
EGALEMENT. AINSI, LE TIMING DU VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-OUEST EST
INCERTAIN, LA TAILLE DU CONE D'INCERTITUDE DE LA TRAJECTOIRE
REFLETANT CE FAIT.
LE MINIMUM RESIDUEL DEVRAIT ENSUITE DERIVER VERS LE SUD-OUEST EN
CONTINUANT DE SE COMBLER JUSQU'A LUNDI.

AVEC L'APPROCHE D'UN TALWEG D'ALTITUDE AU SUD-OUEST, LE CISAILLEMENT
DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE TOURNE AU SECTEUR OUEST EN SE RENFORCANT.
COMBINE A LA PRESENCE D'AIR SEC, DES MECANISMES D'INJECTION D'AIR SEC
DANS LA COUCHE LIMITE SONT SUSCEPTIBLES DE CONTINUER A AFFAIBLIR
RAPIDEMENT AMBALI. LA TENDANCE A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT RAPIDE SE RETROUVE
EGALEMENT DANS LES MODELES NUMERIQUES DISPONIBLES, LA PETITE TAILLE
DU SYSTEME LE RENDANT TRES VULNERABLE A SON ENVIRONNEMENT.

DU FAIT DE LA PRESENTE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE,
AMBALI NE PRESENTE PAS DE RISQUE POUR LES TERRES DE LA ZONE DES
MASCAREIGNES. IL EST TOUTEFOIS PRUDENT DE RESTER INFORMER SUR CE
SYSTEME QUI DEVRAIT RAPIDEMENT S'AFFAIBLIR.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 061836
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/3/20192020
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (AMBALI)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/06 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.9 S / 62.1 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 972 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 80 SE: 110 SW: 90 NW: 70
34 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 60 NW: 60
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 50 NW: 50
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/07 06 UTC: 12.5 S / 62.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/12/07 18 UTC: 13.0 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/12/08 06 UTC: 13.3 S / 60.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2019/12/08 18 UTC: 13.7 S / 59.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
60H: 2019/12/09 06 UTC: 14.3 S / 58.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0;CI=4.5

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF AMBALI CONTINUES TO DEGRADE UNDER THE EFFECT OF
A TROPOSPHERIC WINDSHEAR, AS SHOWN ON THE CIMSS ANALYSIS DATA. THE
CDO PATTERN STILL LEAVES INTENSE CONVECTIVE BURST NEAR THE CENTER.
THE LAST ASCAT SWATH DOES NOT ALLOW TO LOCATE THE CYCLONIC WINDS
WHICH ARE LOCATED OVER A TOO SHORT DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER. HOWEVER,
THE WINDS ARE WEAKENING AND AMBALI SHOULD SOON BE DOWNGRADED TO A
STRONG TROPICAL STORM.

NO CHANGES IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST : AMBALI FOLLOWS A GENERAL
SOUTHWARDS TRACK. ONCE THE SYSTEM IS WEAKENED, THE STEERING FLOW
SHOULD COME BACK DOWN TO THE LOW LEVELS INDUCING A GENERALLY
SOUTH-WESTERLY TRACK. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE ANALYSED INTENSITY
IN THE MODELS REMAINS FAR TOO LOW IN COMPARISON TO THE OBSERVATION,
WHICH MEANS THEIR SIMULATED STEERING FLOW IS LOCATED ALSO TOO LOW.
THIS MAKES THE TIMING OF THE SOUTH-WESTERLY TURN UNCERTAIN. THE SIZE
OF THE DYNAMICAL UNCERTAINTY CONE ILLUSTRATES THIS. FROM MONDAY, THE
RESIDUAL LOW SHOULD DRIFT GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE FILLING UP.

WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH IN THE SOUTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM,
THE MID-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXEPCTED TO BECOME WESTERLY AND
STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. COMBINED WITH DRY AIR INTRUSIONS,
PROCESSES OF COOL AIR DOWNWARD ADVECTIONS INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AMBALI. A RAPID WEAKENING
TENDENCY IS ALSO FOUND IN THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE, THE SMALL
SIZE OF THE SYSTEM MAKING IT VERY VULNERABLE TO ENVIRONMENTAL
FORCINGS.

DUE TO THE PRESENT TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST, AMBALI DOES NOT
PRESENT A RISK FOR THE LANDS IN THE MASCARENE AREA. HOWEVER, IT IS
PRUDENT TO REMAIN INFORMED ABOUT THIS SYSTEM, WHICH SHOULD RAPIDLY
WEAKEN.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 061810
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/12/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 06/12/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (AMBALI) 972 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.9 S / 62.1 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 45 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 40
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/12/07 AT 06 UTC:
12.5 S / 62.0 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2019/12/07 AT 18 UTC:
13.0 S / 61.6 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 061500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMBALI) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMBALI) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 11.6S 62.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.6S 62.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 12.2S 61.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMBALI) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMBALI) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 11.6S 62.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.6S 62.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 12.2S 61.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 12.7S 60.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 13.4S 59.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 13.9S 58.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 14.8S 57.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 11.7S 62.1E.
06DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AMBALI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
583 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY DECAYING SYSTEM
WITH CYCLING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO AN EMBEDDED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE BASED ON CONVECTIVE BANDING PRESENT TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC AS IS EVIDENT IN A 061200Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR
COMPOSITE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE APPARENT
WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM FMEE AND PGTW OF 5.0 (90KTS). TC 03S CONTINUES TO
TRACK THROUGH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST),
BUT IS WEAKENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES BEGIN TO ERODE THE
OUTFLOW CHANNELS. TC 03S IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A STR POSITIONED TO THE EAST. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THIS RIDGE
AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN A SECOND DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL
BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM BY TAU 12, CAUSING THE
FORECAST TRACK TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD. AS THE SYSTEM TRAVELS ALONG
THIS SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK IT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 48 AND FINISH DISSIPATING BY TAU 72.
DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT OVER THE COMPLEX STEERING PATTERN
DUE TO THE COMPETING STEERING RIDGES IN THE MID AND LOWER LEVELS.
EXCLUDING NAVGEM, WHICH IS A SIGNIFICANT EASTWARD OUTLIER, THE
SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IS 220NM BY TAU 96, LENDING ONLY FAIR
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z AND 071500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 061231 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/3/20192020
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 3 (AMBALI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 06/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 11.6 S / 62.3 E
(ONZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE DEUX DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/5.0/W 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 968 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 80 SE: 110 SO: 90 NO: 70
34 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SO: 60 NO: 60
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 50 NO: 50
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SO: 40 NO: 40

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 07/12/2019 00 UTC: 12.2 S / 62.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 07/12/2019 12 UTC: 12.8 S / 62.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 08/12/2019 00 UTC: 13.3 S / 61.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 08/12/2019 12 UTC: 13.6 S / 60.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
60H: 09/12/2019 00 UTC: 14.1 S / 59.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
72H: 09/12/2019 12 UTC: 14.7 S / 58.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.0.CI=5.0

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 061231 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/3/20192020
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (AMBALI)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/06 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.6 S / 62.3 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/5.0/W 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 968 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 80 SE: 110 SW: 90 NW: 70
34 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 60 NW: 60
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 50 NW: 50
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/07 00 UTC: 12.2 S / 62.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/12/07 12 UTC: 12.8 S / 62.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/12/08 00 UTC: 13.3 S / 61.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/12/08 12 UTC: 13.6 S / 60.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
60H: 2019/12/09 00 UTC: 14.1 S / 59.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2019/12/09 12 UTC: 14.7 S / 58.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0.CI=5.0

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 061231
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/3/20192020
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 3 (AMBALI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 06/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 11.6 S / 62.3 E
(ONZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE DEUX DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/5.0/W 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 968 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 80 SE: 110 SO: 90 NO: 70
34 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SO: 60 NO: 60
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 50 NO: 50
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SO: 40 NO: 40

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 07/12/2019 00 UTC: 12.2 S / 62.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 07/12/2019 12 UTC: 12.8 S / 62.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 08/12/2019 00 UTC: 13.3 S / 61.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 08/12/2019 12 UTC: 13.6 S / 60.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
60H: 09/12/2019 00 UTC: 14.1 S / 59.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
72H: 09/12/2019 12 UTC: 14.7 S / 58.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.0;CI=5.0

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE D'AMBALI A
CONTINUE DE SE DEGRADER PROBABLEMENT SOUS L'EFFET D'UN CISAILLEMENT
DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, COMME MONTRE SUR LES CARTES D'ANALYSES DU
CIMSS. ACTUELLEMENT, DES POUSSEES CONVECTIVES INTENSES SUBSISTENT
PRES DU CENTRE, CE QUI PERMET LE MAINTIEN D'UNE STRUCTURE DE CDO DE
PETITE TAILLE. L'AIR SEC RESTE BIEN PRA SENT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST
PRES DU COEUR DU SYSTEME ET EN PARTICULIER AU NORD-EST.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE POUR LES
COURTES ECHEANCES : UNE DORSALE DE BASSE ET MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE
CENTREE SUR LA MOITIE EST DU BASSIN PILOTE UNE DESCENTE EN DIRECTION
GENERALE DU SUD. UNE FOIS QUE LE SYSTEME SERA AFFAIBLI, LE FLUX
DIRECTEUR DEVRAIT REDESCENDRE DANS LES BAS NIVEAUX INDUISANT UNE
TRAJECTOIRE ORIENTEE GLOABLEMENT AU SUD-OUEST. L'INTENSITE ANALYSEE
PAR LES MODELES RESTE BIEN TROP BASSE, CE QUI REND LEUR FLUX
DIRECTEUR TROP BAS EGALEMENT. AINSI, LE TIMING DU VIRAGE VERS LE
SUD-OUEST EST INCERTAIN, LA TAILLE DU CONE DYNAMIQUE DE LA
TRAJECTOIRE REFLETANT CELA.
LE MINIMUM RESIDUEL DEVRAIT ENSUITE DERIVER VERS LE SUD-OUEST EN
CONTINUANT DE SE COMBLER JUSQU'A LUNDI.

AVEC L'APPROCHE D'UN TALWEG D'ALTITUDE AU SUD-OUEST, LE CISAILLEMENT
DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE TOURNE AU SECTEUR OUEST EN SE RENFORCANT CE
SOIR ET DEMAIN. COMBINE A LA PRESENCE D'AIR SEC, DES MECANISMES
D'INJECTION D'AIR SEC DANS LA COUCHE LIMITE SONT SUSCEPTIBLES DE
CONTINUER A AFFAIBLIR RAPIDEMENT AMBALI, A L'IMAGE DE
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU CTTI HELLEN EN 2014. LA TENDANCE A
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT RAPIDE SE RETROUVE EGALEMENT DANS LES MODELES
NUMERIQUES DISPONIBLES, LA PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME LE RENDANT TRES
VULNERABLE A SON ENVIRONNEMENT. DE PLUS, LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE EST
EN BAISSE AU SUD DE 12S.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 061231
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/3/20192020
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (AMBALI)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/06 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.6 S / 62.3 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/5.0/W 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 968 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 80 SE: 110 SW: 90 NW: 70
34 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 60 NW: 60
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 50 NW: 50
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/07 00 UTC: 12.2 S / 62.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/12/07 12 UTC: 12.8 S / 62.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/12/08 00 UTC: 13.3 S / 61.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/12/08 12 UTC: 13.6 S / 60.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
60H: 2019/12/09 00 UTC: 14.1 S / 59.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2019/12/09 12 UTC: 14.7 S / 58.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0;CI=5.0

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, AMBALI'S CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUED TO
DETERIORATE PROBABLY DUE TO A MID-LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONSTRAINT, AS
SEEN ON THE CIMSS SAT ANALYSIS. CURRENTLY, SOME STRONG CONVECTIVE
BURSTS REMAIN CLOSE TO THE CENTER, WHICH MAINTAIN A SMALL CDO-LIKE
PATTERN. DRY AIR REMAINS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE CLOSE
TO THE TC CORE, AND ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

LITTLE CHANGES IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST FOR SHORT LEAD TIMES: A LOW
AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ON THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN STEERS
THE SYSTEM GENERALLY SOUTHWARDS. ONCE THE SYSTEM IS WEAKENED, THE
STEERING FLOW SHOULD COME BACK DOWN TO THE LOW LEVELS INDUCING A
GENERALLY SOUTH-WESTERLY TRACK. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE ANALYSED
INTENSITY IN THE MODELS REMAINS FAR TOO LOW, WHICH MEANS THEIR
SIMULATED STEERING FLOW IS LOCATED ALSO TOO LOW. THIS MAKES THE
TIMING OF THE SOUTH-WESTERLY TURN UNCERTAIN. THE SIZE OF THE
DYNAMICAL UNCERTAINTY CONE ILLUSTRATES THIS.
FROM MONDAY, THE RESIDUAL LOW SHOULD DRIFT GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD
WHILE FILLING UP.

WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH IN THE SOUTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM,
THE MID-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXEPCTED TO BECOME WESTERLY AND
STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. COMBINED WITH DRY AIR INTRUSIONS,
PROCESSES OF COOL AIR DOWNWARD ADVECTIONS INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AMBALI, LIKE WHAT HAPPENED
DURING VITC HELLEN'S RAPID WEAKENING IN 2014.
A RAPID WEAKENING TENDENCY IS ALSO FOUND IN THE AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE, THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM MAKING IT VERY VULNERABLE TO
ENVIRONMENTAL FORCINGS. ADDITIONALLY, THE OCEANIC HEAT POTENTIAL IS
DECREASING SOUTH OF 12S.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 061209 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/12/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 011/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 06/12/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (AMBALI) 968 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.6 S / 62.3 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 225 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 45 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 40
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/12/07 AT 00 UTC:
12.2 S / 62.3 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/12/07 AT 12 UTC:
12.8 S / 62.1 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 061209
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/12/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 011/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 06/12/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (AMBALI) 968 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.6 S / 62.3 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 225 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 45 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 40
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/12/07 AT 00 UTC:
12.2 S / 62.3 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/12/07 AT 12 UTC:
12.8 S / 62.1 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 060631 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/3/20192020
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 3 (AMBALI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 06/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 10.9 S / 62.3 E
(DIX DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE DEUX DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/5.5/W 1.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 955 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 95 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 9 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 80 SE: 110 SO: 80 NO: 80
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 80 SO: 70 NO: 60
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SO: 40 NO: 40

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 06/12/2019 18 UTC: 11.7 S / 62.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 07/12/2019 06 UTC: 12.7 S / 62.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 07/12/2019 18 UTC: 13.4 S / 61.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 08/12/2019 06 UTC: 13.8 S / 60.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 08/12/2019 18 UTC: 14.0 S / 59.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
72H: 09/12/2019 06 UTC: 14.3 S / 58.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5+.CI=5.5+

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 060631 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/3/20192020
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (AMBALI)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/06 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.9 S / 62.3 E
(TEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.5/W 1.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 955 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 9 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 80 SE: 110 SW: 80 NW: 80
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 80 SW: 70 NW: 60
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/06 18 UTC: 11.7 S / 62.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/12/07 06 UTC: 12.7 S / 62.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/12/07 18 UTC: 13.4 S / 61.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/12/08 06 UTC: 13.8 S / 60.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/12/08 18 UTC: 14.0 S / 59.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2019/12/09 06 UTC: 14.3 S / 58.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5+.CI=5.5+

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 060631
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/3/20192020
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 3 (AMBALI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 06/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 10.9 S / 62.3 E
(DIX DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE DEUX DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/5.5/W 1.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 955 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 95 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 9 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 80 SE: 110 SO: 80 NO: 80
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 80 SO: 70 NO: 60
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SO: 40 NO: 40

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 06/12/2019 18 UTC: 11.7 S / 62.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 07/12/2019 06 UTC: 12.7 S / 62.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 07/12/2019 18 UTC: 13.4 S / 61.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 08/12/2019 06 UTC: 13.8 S / 60.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 08/12/2019 18 UTC: 14.0 S / 59.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
72H: 09/12/2019 06 UTC: 14.3 S / 58.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5+;CI=5.5+

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE D'AMBALI
S'EST DEGRADEE DE FACON SPECTACULAIRE AVEC LA DISPARITION DE L'OEIL
EN IMAGERIE IR. A 06UTC, IL NE RESTE PLUS QU'UN POINT CHAUD. LES
IMAGES SATELLITES MONTRENT LA PRESENCE D'AIR SEC TRES PROCHE DU COEUR
DU SYSTEME DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-EST, QUI S'ENROULE EGALEMENT SUR LE
DEMI-CERCLE SUD.
VU LA TRES PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME (COEUR CONCENTRE DANS UN RAYON DE
30MN), LES CONTRAINTES DE DVORAK N'ONT PAS ETE RESPECTEES.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE POUR LES
COURTES ECHEANCES : UNE DORSALE DE BASSE ET MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE
CENTREE SUR LA MOITIE EST DU BASSIN PILOTE UNE DESCENTE EN DIRECTION
GENERALE DU SUD-SUD-OUEST. UNE FOIS QUE LE SYSTEME SERA AFFAIBLI, LE
FLUX DIRECTEUR DEVRAIT REDESCENDRE DANS LES BAS NIVEAUX INDUISANT UNE
TRAJECTOIRE ORIENTEE GLOABLEMENT AU SUD-OUEST. L'INTENSITE ANALYSEE
PAR LES MODELES RESTE BIEN TROP BASSE, CE QUI REND LEUR FLUX
DIRECTEUR TROP BAS EGALEMENT. AINSI, LE TIMING DU VIRAGE VERS LE
SUD-OUEST EST INCERTAIN.
LE MINIMUM RESIDUEL DEVRAIT ENSUITE DERIVER VERS LE SUD-OUEST EN
CONTINUANT DE SE COMBLER JUSQU'A LUNDI.

AVEC L'APPROCHE D'UN TALWEG D'ALTITUDE AU SUD-OUEST, LA HAUSSE DE
CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR OUEST EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE COMBINE A
L'INTRUSION D'AIR SEC DEVRAIT CONTINUER D'AFFAIBLIR RAPIDEMENT
AMBALI.
LA CONCOMITANCE AVEC UN DEBUT DE CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE
L'OEIL N'EST PAS EXCLUE MAIS EN L'ABSENCE D'IMAGE MICRO-ONDE RECENTE,
CETTE HYPOTHESE RESTE EN SUSPENS.
LA TENDANCE A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT RAPIDE SE RETROUVE EGALEMENT DANS LES
MODELES NUMERIQUES DISPONIBLES, LA PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME LE
RENDANT TRES VULNERABLE A SON ENVIRONNEMENT. DE PLUS, LE POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE EST EN BAISSE AU SUD DE 12S.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 060631
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/3/20192020
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (AMBALI)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/06 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.9 S / 62.3 E
(TEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.5/W 1.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 955 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 9 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 80 SE: 110 SW: 80 NW: 80
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 80 SW: 70 NW: 60
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/06 18 UTC: 11.7 S / 62.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/12/07 06 UTC: 12.7 S / 62.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/12/07 18 UTC: 13.4 S / 61.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/12/08 06 UTC: 13.8 S / 60.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/12/08 18 UTC: 14.0 S / 59.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2019/12/09 06 UTC: 14.3 S / 58.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5+;CI=5.5+

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN DETERIORATED RAPIDLY WITH
THE DISAPPEARANCE OF THE EYE ON THE IR IMAGERY. AT 06UTC, ONLY A WARM
SPOT REMAINS. THE CURRENT SAT IMAGES CLEARLY SHOW THE PRESENCE OF DRY
AIR VERY CLOSE TO THE TC CORE IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, ALSO
WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
WITH THE VERY SMALL SIZE OF THE TC (THE CORE IS CONCENTRATED WITHIN A
30NM RADIUS), DVORAK CONSTRAINTS HAVE NOT BEEN TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT.

LITTLE CHANGES IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST FOR SHORT LEAD TIMES: A LOW
AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ON THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN STEERS
THE SYSTEM GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS. ONCE THE SYSTEM IS
WEAKENED, THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD COME BACK DOWN TO THE LOW LEVELS
INDUCING A GENERALLY SOUTH-WESTERLY TRACK. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
THE ANALYSED INTENSITY IN THE MODELS REMAINS FAR TOO LOW, WHICH MEANS
THEIR SIMULATED STEERING FLOW IS LOCATED ALSO TOO LOW. THIS MAKES THE
TIMING OF THE SOUTH-WESTERLY TURN UNCERTAIN.
FROM MONDAY, THE RESIDUAL LOW SHOULD DRIFT GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD
WHILE FILLING UP.

WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH IN THE SOUTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM,
THE STRENGTHENING OF THE WESTERLY MID-LEVEL WIND SHEAR COMBINED WITH
DRY AIR INTRUSIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AMBALI. THESE
PROCESSES COULD BE CONCOMITANT WITH THE BEGINNING OF AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE BUT WITH NO RECENT MW IMAGES, THIS HYPOTHESIS CAN
NOT BE CURRENTLY INVESTIGATED.
A RAPID WEAKENING TENDENCY IS ALSO FOUND IN THE AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE, THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM MAKING IT ESPECIALLY
VULNERABLE TO ENVIRONMENTAL FORCINGS. ADDITIONALLY, THE OCEANIC HEAT
POTENTIAL IS DECREASING SOUTH OF 12S.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 060623
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/12/2019
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 010/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 06/12/2019 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (AMBALI) 955 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.9 S / 62.3 E
(TEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 75 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 280 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/95 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 45
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/12/06 AT 18 UTC:
11.7 S / 62.2 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/12/07 AT 06 UTC:
12.7 S / 62.1 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 060300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMBALI) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMBALI) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 10.5S 62.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.5S 62.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 11.5S 62.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMBALI) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMBALI) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 10.5S 62.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.5S 62.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 11.5S 62.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 12.4S 61.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 13.1S 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 13.6S 61.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 14.2S 60.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 15.1S 59.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 16.0S 58.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 10.8S 62.1E.
06DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMBALI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 642
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 060000Z REVEALED A VERY COMPACT SYSTEM
WRAPPING INTO A 5 NM EYE PROVIDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION PLACEMENT. THE INTENSITY OF 135 KNOTS IS HEDGING JUST UNDER
THE PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 7.0
(140 KNOTS). TC 03S HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KNOTS),
A VERY WARM SEA SURFACE (29-30C) AND EXTREMELY STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. OVER THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS, TC 03S WILL CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD FOLLOWING THE FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE. AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS
LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, IT WILL LIKELY TURN SLIGHTLY WESTWARD
FOLLOWING THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW. TC 03S IS EXPECTED TO HAVE
REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY AT 060000Z AND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
WEAKENING, WHICH IS ALREADY EVIDENT ON THE ANIMATED EIR LOOP AS THE
EYE HAS STARTED TO FILL. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MODERATELY
FAVORABLE. BETWEEN TAU 12 TO 24, UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
LESS FAVORABLE, PARTICULARLY THE OUTFLOW PATTERN AS RIDGING BUILDS IN
WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND A COL DEVELOPS, DRASTICALLY INCREASING THE RATE
OF DECAY AS THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DROP TO 65 KNOTS BY TAU 48. THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY WEAKEN AFTER TAU 48 AND IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 120. HOWEVER, MODELS POORLY RESOLVE THE COMPLEX
INNER-CORE DYNAMICS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES, PARTICULARLY SMALL SYSTEMS
SUCH AS THIS, AND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DECAY MORE
RAPIDLY THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE A VERY LARGE
SPREAD IN TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE AS THE SMALL SIZE OF TC 03S AND
ITS PROXIMITY TO TC 02S FURTHER COMPLICATES THE ABILITY TO FORECAST
THIS STORM. THIS NOTED MODEL SPREAD LENDS LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE
CURRENT JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z AND 070300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 060045 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/3/20192020
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL TRES INTENSE 3 (AMBALI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 06/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 10.5 S / 62.2 E
(DIX DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE DEUX DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 7.0/7.0/D 1.5/0 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 930 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 120 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 11 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 70 SE: 110 SO: 90 NO: 70
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 80 SO: 70 NO: 60
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 40
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 40 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 06/12/2019 12 UTC: 11.3 S / 61.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 07/12/2019 00 UTC: 12.3 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 07/12/2019 12 UTC: 12.9 S / 61.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 08/12/2019 00 UTC: 13.4 S / 60.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 08/12/2019 12 UTC: 14.3 S / 60.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
72H: 09/12/2019 00 UTC: 14.9 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=7.0-

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 060045 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/3/20192020
1.A VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (AMBALI)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/06 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.5 S / 62.2 E
(TEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 7.0/7.0/D 1.5/0 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 930 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 120 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 11 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 70 SE: 110 SW: 90 NW: 70
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 80 SW: 70 NW: 60
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 40
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 40 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/06 12 UTC: 11.3 S / 61.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/12/07 00 UTC: 12.3 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/12/07 12 UTC: 12.9 S / 61.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/12/08 00 UTC: 13.4 S / 60.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/12/08 12 UTC: 14.3 S / 60.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2019/12/09 00 UTC: 14.9 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=7.0-

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 060045
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/3/20192020
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL TRES INTENSE 3 (AMBALI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 06/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 10.5 S / 62.2 E
(DIX DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE DEUX DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 7.0/7.0/D 1.5/0 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 930 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 120 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 11 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 70 SE: 110 SO: 90 NO: 70
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 80 SO: 70 NO: 60
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 40
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 40 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 06/12/2019 12 UTC: 11.3 S / 61.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 07/12/2019 00 UTC: 12.3 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 07/12/2019 12 UTC: 12.9 S / 61.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 08/12/2019 00 UTC: 13.4 S / 60.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 08/12/2019 12 UTC: 14.3 S / 60.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
72H: 09/12/2019 00 UTC: 14.9 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=7.0-

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LE SYSTEME A CONTINUE DE
S'INTENSIFIER RAPIDEMENT. AMBALI MONTRE UNE CONFIGURATION BIEN SYMA
TRIQUE TRES COMPACTE AVEC UN OEIL TRES BIEN DEFINI SUR L'IMAGERIE EN
COMPOSITION COLOREE. L'OEIL S'EST ENCORE RECHAUFFA ET CONTRACTA
TANDIS QUE LES SOMMETS SONT RESTES TRES FROIDS.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE POUR LES
COURTES ECHEANCES : UNE DORSALE DE BASSE ET MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE
CENTREE SUR LA MOITIE EST DU BASSIN PILOTE UNE DESCENTE EN DIRECTION
GENERALE DU SUD-SUD-OUEST. A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, ALORS QUE LE SYSTEME
EST PREVU NETTEMENT S'AFFAIBLIR, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR DEVRAIT
REDESCENDRE DANS LES BAS NIVEAUX INDUISANT UNE TRAJECTOIRE PLUS
SUD-OUEST QU'INITIALEMENT PREVU : LE MINIMUM RESIDUEL DEVRAIT AINSI
DERIVER VERS LE SUD-OUEST EN CONTINUANT DE SE COMBLER JUSQU'A LUNDI.

AMBALI CONTINUE DE PROFITER DE CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES TRES
FAVORABLES : EN ALTITUDE, LA DIVERGENCE RESTE BONNE ET LE
CISAILLEMENT FAIBLE. MAIS, AUJOURD'HUI, A L'APPROCHE D'UN TALWEG
D'ALTITUDE, UNE CONTRAINTE D'OUEST SE MET EN PLACE DANS LES MOYENS
NIVEAUX PUIS RAPIDEMENT EN ALTITUDE, ASSOCIEE A UNE INTRUSION D'AIR
SEC EN MOYENNE TROPO. UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT ASSEZ RAPIDE EST ALORS
PROPOSE PAR LES MODELES NUMERIQUES DISPONIBLES, LA PETITE TAILLE DU
SYSTEME LE RENDANT TRES VULNERABLE A SON ENVIRONNEMENT.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 060045
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/3/20192020
1.A VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (AMBALI)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/06 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.5 S / 62.2 E
(TEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 7.0/7.0/D 1.5/0 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 930 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 120 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 11 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 70 SE: 110 SW: 90 NW: 70
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 80 SW: 70 NW: 60
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 40
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 40 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/06 12 UTC: 11.3 S / 61.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/12/07 00 UTC: 12.3 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/12/07 12 UTC: 12.9 S / 61.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/12/08 00 UTC: 13.4 S / 60.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/12/08 12 UTC: 14.3 S / 60.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2019/12/09 00 UTC: 14.9 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=7.0-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO QUICKLY
INTENSIFY. AMBALI SHOWS A SYMMETRIC AND VERY COMPACT CLOUD PATTERN
WITH A VERY WELL DEFINED EYE. EYE HAS WARMED AND CONTRACTED WHILE
CLOUD TOPS HAVE REMAINED VERY COLD.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST FOR SHORT TIMES: A LOW AND
MID_LEVEL RIDGE CENTRED ON THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN STEERS THE
SYSTEM GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS. FROM SATURDAY, WHEN THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY, THE DIRECTIONAL FLOW SHOULD COME
BACK DOWN TO THE LOW LEVELS INDUCING A MORE SOUTH-WESTERN TRACK THAN
INITIALLY EXPECTED : THE RESIDUAL MINIMUM SHOULD THUS DRIFT SOUTHWEST
AND CONTINUE TO FILL UNTIL MONDAY.

AMBALI CONTINUES TO BENEFITS FROM GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS : IN
THE UPPER LEVELS, DIVERGENCE REMAINS GOOD AND VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS
LOW. OHC IS PARTICULARLY HIGH OVER THIS AREA OF THE BASIN. THE
INTENSIFICATION COULD CONTINUE THIS NIGHT. BUT, FROM TODAY AND
BEYOND, DUE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVELS TROUGH, A WESTERLY SHEAR
CONSTRAINT APPEARS IN THE MID-LEVELS, THEN IN THE UPPER LEVELS
QUICKLY AFTER, ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVELS DRY AIR INTRUSION. A RATHER
RAPID WEAKENING IS SUGGESTED BY THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 060018 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/12/2019
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 06/12/2019 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (AMBALI) 930 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.5 S / 62.2 E
(TEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 320 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/120 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 20 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 40
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/12/06 AT 12 UTC:
11.3 S / 61.8 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 060018
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/12/2019
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 06/12/2019 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (AMBALI) 930 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.5 S / 62.2 E
(TEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 320 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/120 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 20 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 40
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/12/06 AT 12 UTC:
11.3 S / 61.8 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/12/07 AT 00 UTC:
12.3 S / 61.6 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 052100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMBALI) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMBALI) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 9.9S 62.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.9S 62.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 11.1S 62.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMBALI) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMBALI) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 9.9S 62.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.9S 62.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 11.1S 62.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 12.0S 62.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 13.0S 61.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 13.5S 61.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 14.1S 60.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 15.0S 59.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 15.9S 58.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 10.2S 62.3E.
05DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMBALI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 679
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A VERY COMPACT SYSTEM WRAPPING INTO
AN 8 NM EYE. THE CLEAR EYE ON EIR, IN ADDITION TO A 051703Z ASCAT-B
PASS, PROVIDE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INTENSITY
OF 100 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH KNES AND FMEE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS). TC 03S IS RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KNOTS), A VERY WARM SEA
SURFACE (29-30C) AND EXTREMELY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYER STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, TC 03S WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD FOLLOWING THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CURRENT STEERING RIDGE. AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD, IT WILL LIKELY TURN SLIGHTLY WESTWARD FOLLOWING THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL FLOW. AFUM, ECMWF, AND THE UKMET ENSEMBLE ARE WESTERN
OUTLIERS, WHILE NAVGEM AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE SHOW A POLEWARD TRACK
INITIALLY THEN TURN TO A MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. NEAR-TERM
FORECAST INTENSITIES ARE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER ON THE CURRENT FORECAST
THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON THE EXPLOSIVE INTENSIFICATION OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS AND EXPECTATIONS THAT THE OBSERVED RAPID
INTENSIFICATION TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SIX TO TWELVE HOURS.
THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS IN TWELVE
HOURS, BUT MODELS POORLY RESOLVE THE COMPLEX INNER-CORE DYNAMICS OF
TROPICAL CYCLONES, PARTICULARLY SMALL SYSTEMS SUCH AS THIS, AND THIS
SYSTEM HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERFORECAST BY MODELS THUS FAR; THE
JTWC FORECAST IS HEDGED ABOVE CURRENT INTENSITY GUIDANCE WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE. AFTER TAU 24, UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE, PARTICULARLY THE OUTFLOW PATTERN AS RIDGING BUILDS IN WEST
OF THE SYSTEM AND A COL DEVELOPS OVERHEAD BY TAU 48. THIS WILL HALT
THE INTENSIFICATION TREND FOR THE COMPACT SYSTEM. SLOW TO STEADY
WEAKENING BETWEEN TAU 24 AND DISSIPATION AROUND TAU 120 IS ANTICIPATED
AS LESS FAVORABLE OUTFLOW LEADS TO WEAKENING. NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE A
LARGE SPREAD IN TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE AS THE SMALL SIZE OF TC
03S AND ITS PROXIMITY TO TC 02S FURTHER COMPLICATE THE ABILITY TO
FORECAST THIS STORM. THIS NOTED MODEL SPREAD LENDS LOW CONFIDENCE TO
THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z AND
062100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 051818 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/3/20192020
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 3 (AMBALI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 05/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 10.0 S / 62.5 E
(DIX DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE DEUX DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/D 2.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 962 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 70 SE: 110 SO: 90 NO: 70
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 90 SO: 60 NO: 60
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SO: 50 NO: 50
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 40 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 06/12/2019 06 UTC: 11.3 S / 62.1 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 06/12/2019 18 UTC: 12.2 S / 62.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 07/12/2019 06 UTC: 12.5 S / 61.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 07/12/2019 18 UTC: 13.1 S / 61.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 08/12/2019 06 UTC: 13.8 S / 60.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
72H: 08/12/2019 18 UTC: 14.4 S / 59.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 051818 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/3/20192020
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (AMBALI)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/05 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.0 S / 62.5 E
(TEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 2.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 962 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 70 SE: 110 SW: 90 NW: 70
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 90 SW: 60 NW: 60
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SW: 50 NW: 50
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 40 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/06 06 UTC: 11.3 S / 62.1 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/12/06 18 UTC: 12.2 S / 62.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/12/07 06 UTC: 12.5 S / 61.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/12/07 18 UTC: 13.1 S / 61.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/12/08 06 UTC: 13.8 S / 60.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2019/12/08 18 UTC: 14.4 S / 59.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 051818
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/3/20192020
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 3 (AMBALI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 05/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 10.0 S / 62.5 E
(DIX DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE DEUX DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/D 2.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 962 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 70 SE: 110 SO: 90 NO: 70
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 90 SO: 60 NO: 60
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SO: 50 NO: 50
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 40 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 06/12/2019 06 UTC: 11.3 S / 62.1 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 06/12/2019 18 UTC: 12.2 S / 62.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 07/12/2019 06 UTC: 12.5 S / 61.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 07/12/2019 18 UTC: 13.1 S / 61.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 08/12/2019 06 UTC: 13.8 S / 60.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
72H: 08/12/2019 18 UTC: 14.4 S / 59.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LE SYSTEME A CONNU UNE
INTENSIFICATION EXPLOSIVE. L'OEIL EST ENTOURE DE NUAGES AVEC DES
SOMMETS TRES FROIDS, TANDIS QUE L'OEIL NE CESSE DE SE RA CHAUFFER.
COMPTE-TENU DE LA STRUCTURE TRES COMPACT DU SYSTEME, LES CONTRAINTES
DE DVORAK ONT ETE CASSEES POUR PRENDRE EN COMPTE L'INTENSIFICATION
RAPIDE.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE POUR LES
COURTES ECHEANCES : UNE DORSALE DE BASSE ET MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE
CENTREE SUR LA MOITIE EST DU BASSIN PILOTE UNE DESCENTE EN DIRECTION
GENERALE DU SUD-SUD-OUEST. A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, ALORS QUE LE SYSTEME
EST PREVU NETTEMENT S'AFFAIBLIR, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR DEVRAIT
REDESCENDRE DANS LES BAS NIVEAUX INDUISANT UNE TRAJECTOIRE PLUS
SUD-OUEST QU'INITIALEMENT PREVU : LE MINIMUM RESIDUEL DEVRAIT AINSI
DERIVER VERS LE SUD-OUEST EN CONTINUANT DE SE COMBLER JUSQU'A LUNDI.

AMBALI CONTINUE DE PROFITER DE CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES TRES
FAVORABLES : EN ALTITUDE, LA DIVERGENCE RESTE BONNE ET LE
CISAILLEMENT FAIBLE. L'INTENSIFICATION POURRAIT SE POURSUIVRE CETTE
NUIT ENCORE. PAR CONTRE, A PARTIR DE DEMAIN, A L'APPROCHE D'UN
TALWEG, UNE CONTRAINTE D'OUEST SE MET EN PLACE DANS LES MOYENS
NIVEAUX PUIS RAPIDEMENT EN ALTITUDE, ASSOCIEE A UNE INTRUSION D'AIR
SEC EN MOYENNE TROPO. UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT ASSEZ RAPIDE EST ALORS
PROPOSE PAR LES MODELES NUMERIQUES DISPONIBLES. LA PREVISION
D'INTENSITE DE CE SYSTEME DE PETITE TAILLE RESTE UN CHALLENGE ET
PRESENTE UNE INCERTITUDE PLUS IMPORTANTE QUE LA NORMALE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 051818
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/3/20192020
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (AMBALI)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/05 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.0 S / 62.5 E
(TEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 2.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 962 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 70 SE: 110 SW: 90 NW: 70
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 90 SW: 60 NW: 60
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SW: 50 NW: 50
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 40 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/06 06 UTC: 11.3 S / 62.1 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/12/06 18 UTC: 12.2 S / 62.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/12/07 06 UTC: 12.5 S / 61.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/12/07 18 UTC: 13.1 S / 61.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/12/08 06 UTC: 13.8 S / 60.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2019/12/08 18 UTC: 14.4 S / 59.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS UNDERGONE AN EXPLOSIVE
INTENSIFICATION. EYE IS SURROUNDING BY A RING OF VERY COLD TOP CLOUDS
WHILE THE EYE IS WARMING. CONSIDERING THAT THE SYSTEM IS VERY
COMPACT, THE DVORAK CONSTRAINT RULES HAVE BEEN BROKEN.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST FOR SHORT TIMES: A LOW AND
MID_LEVEL RIDGE CENTRED ON THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN STEERS THE
SYSTEM GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS. FROM SATURDAY, WHEN THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY, THE DIRECTIONAL FLOW SHOULD COME
BACK DOWN TO THE LOW LEVELS INDUCING A MORE SOUTH-WESTERN TRACK THAN
INITIALLY EXPECTED : THE RESIDUAL MINIMUM SHOULD THUS DRIFT SOUTHWEST
AND CONTINUE TO FILL UNTIL MONDAY.

AMBALI CONTINUES TO BENEFITS FROM GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS : IN
THE UPPER LEVELS, DIVERGENCE REMAINS GOOD AND VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS
LOW. OHC IS PARTICULARLY HIGH OVER THIS AREA OF THE BASIN. THE
INTENSIFICATION COULD CONTINUE THIS NIGHT. BUT, FROM TOMORROW AND
BEYOND, DUE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVELS TROUGH, A WESTERLY SHEAR
CONSTRAINT APPEARS IN THE MID-LEVELS, THEN IN THE UPPER LEVELS
QUICKLY AFTER, ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVELS DRY AIR INTRUSION. A RATHER
RAPID WEAKENING IS SUGGESTED BY THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST FOR SUCH A SMALL SYSTEM REMAINS CHALLENGING AND
ASSOCIATED WITH A GREATER THAN USUAL UNCERTAINTY.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 051807
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 05/12/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 05/12/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (AMBALI) 962 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.0 S / 62.5 E
(TEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 20 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 40
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/12/06 AT 06 UTC:
11.3 S / 62.1 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/12/06 AT 18 UTC:
12.2 S / 62.0 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 051500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMBALI) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMBALI) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 9.2S 62.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.2S 62.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 10.1S 62.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMBALI) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMBALI) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 9.2S 62.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.2S 62.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 10.1S 62.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 10.9S 62.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 11.6S 61.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 12.3S 61.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 13.6S 59.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 14.9S 58.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 9.4S 62.6E.
05DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMBALI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 595
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES AND FMEE AND 050921Z GMI
SENSOR MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGES WHICH SHOW TIGHT CONVECTIVE BANDING
AND A DEVELOPING EYE. THE INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS SET BETWEEN LOW
END SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM KNES, FMEE
AND FIMP AND A HIGH END ESTIMATE OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. TC 03S
IS RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (5-10 KNOTS), A VERY WARM SEA SURFACE (29-30C) AND A STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER STEERING
RIDGE TO THE EAST. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, TC 03S WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD FOLLOWING THE FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE. AS THE SYSTEM SHALLOWS LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD, IT WILL LIKELY TURN A BIT WESTWARD FOLLOWING THE
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW. NEAR-TERM FORECAST INTENSITIES ARE
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER ON THE CURRENT FORECAST THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST BASED ON EXPECTATIONS THAT THE OBSERVED RAPID
INTENSIFICATION TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SIX TO TWELVE HOURS.
THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS IN
TWELVE HOURS, BUT THE EXACT VALUE AND TIMING ARE UNCERTAIN. AFTER TAU
24, UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE, PARTICULARLY
THE OUTFLOW PATTERN, HALTING THE INTENSIFICATION TREND FOR THE
COMPACT SYSTEM. SLOW TO STEADY WEAKENING BETWEEN TAU 36 AND
DISSIPATION AROUND TAU 96 IS ANTICIPATED AS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND LESS FAVORABLE OUTFLOW IMPACT THE SYSTEM. NUMERICAL MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36, BUT DIVERGE THEREAFTER DUE TO
DIFFERENCES IN THEIR PREDICTIONS OF STORM INTENSITY AND RESULTANT
STEERING LEVEL. THIS NOTED MODEL SPREAD LENDS LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE
CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
051200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z AND 061500Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 051243 RRA
...............CORRECTIF..............
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/3/20192020
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 3 (AMBALI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 05/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 9.0 S / 63.1 E
(NEUF DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE TROIS DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 60 NO: 60
34 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SO: 40 NO: 40
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 06/12/2019 00 UTC: 10.2 S / 62.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 06/12/2019 12 UTC: 11.6 S / 61.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 07/12/2019 00 UTC: 12.2 S / 61.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 07/12/2019 12 UTC: 12.7 S / 60.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 08/12/2019 00 UTC: 13.4 S / 59.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
72H: 08/12/2019 12 UTC: 14.2 S / 58.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 051243 RRA
...............CORRECTIVE..............
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/3/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (AMBALI)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/05 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.0 S / 63.1 E
(NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 60 NW: 60
34 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SW: 40 NW: 40
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/06 00 UTC: 10.2 S / 62.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/12/06 12 UTC: 11.6 S / 61.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/12/07 00 UTC: 12.2 S / 61.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/12/07 12 UTC: 12.7 S / 60.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/12/08 00 UTC: 13.4 S / 59.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2019/12/08 12 UTC: 14.2 S / 58.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 051243 CCA
***************CORRECTIF**************
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/3/20192020
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 3 (AMBALI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 05/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 9.0 S / 63.1 E
(NEUF DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE TROIS DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 60 NO: 60
34 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SO: 40 NO: 40
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 06/12/2019 00 UTC: 10.2 S / 62.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 06/12/2019 12 UTC: 11.6 S / 61.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 07/12/2019 00 UTC: 12.2 S / 61.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 07/12/2019 12 UTC: 12.7 S / 60.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 08/12/2019 00 UTC: 13.4 S / 59.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
72H: 08/12/2019 12 UTC: 14.2 S / 58.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5

LA CONVECTION PROFONDE PERSISTE DURABLEMENT PRES DU CENTRE,
MAINTENANT UNE CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EN CENTRE NOYE DANS LA MASSE.
DANS CETTE CONFIGURATION, LES ESTIMATIONS SUBJECTIVES DE DVORAK
DISPONIBLES PERMETTENT DE DEFINIR UNE VALEUR DE 3.5, LAISSANT AMBALI
PASSER LE SEUIL DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE. SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES,
UN EMBRYON D'OEIL APPARAIT. A NOTER QUE LA PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME
JUSTIFIE UNE PRESSION CENTRALE MOINS CREUSE QUE CELLE PRESCRITE PAR
LES CORRESPONDANCES DVORAK.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE POUR LES
COURTES ECHEANCES : UNE DORSALE DE BASSE ET MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE
CENTREE SUR LA MOITIE EST DU BASSIN PILOTE UNE DESCENTE EN DIRECTION
GENERALE DU SUD-SUD-OUEST. A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, ALORS QUE LE SYSTEME
EST PREVU NETTEMENT S'AFFAIBLIR, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR DEVRAIT
REDESCENDRE DANS LES BAS NIVEAUX INDUISANT UNE TRAJECTOIRE PLUS
SUD-OUEST QU'INITIALEMENT PREVU : LE MINIMUM RESIDUEL DEVRAIT AINSI
DERIVER VERS LE SUD-OUEST EN CONTINUANT DE SE COMBLER JUSQU'A LUNDI.

AMBALI CONTINUE DE PROFITER DE CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES
FAVORABLES JUSTIFIANT SON INTENSIFICATION ACTUELLE : EN ALTITUDE, LA
DIVERGENCE RESTE BONNE ET LE CISAILLEMENT FAIBLE. UNE INTENSIFICATION
CLIMATOLOGIQUE EST TOUJOURS PREVUE POUR LES PROCHAINES 12H-24H SUIVIE
D'UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT AU-DELA. EN EFFET, A PARTIR DE VENDREDI, A
L'APPROCHE D'UN TALWEG, UNE CONTRAINTE D'OUEST SE MET EN PLACE DANS
LES MOYENS NIVEAUX PUIS RAPIDEMENT EN ALTITUDE, ASSOCIEE A UNE
INTRUSION D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPO. UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT ASSEZ RAPIDE
EST ALORS PROPOSE PAR LES MODELES NUMERIQUES DISPONIBLES. LA
PREVISION D'INTENSITE DE CE SYSTEME DE PETITE TAILLE RESTE UN
CHALLENGE ET PRESENTE UNE INCERTITUDE PLUS IMPORTANTE QUE LA NORMALE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 051243 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/3/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (AMBALI)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/05 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.0 S / 63.1 E
(NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 60 NW: 60
34 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SW: 40 NW: 40
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/06 00 UTC: 10.2 S / 62.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/12/06 12 UTC: 11.6 S / 61.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/12/07 00 UTC: 12.2 S / 61.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/12/07 12 UTC: 12.7 S / 60.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/12/08 00 UTC: 13.4 S / 59.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2019/12/08 12 UTC: 14.2 S / 58.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

THE DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS PERMANENTLY NEAR THE CENTRE, MAINTAINING
A CDO CLOUD PATTERN. IN THIS CONFIGURATION, THE SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES
OF DVORAK AVAILABLE ALLOW TO DEFINE A VALUE OF 3.5, ALLOWING AMBALI
TO PASS THE THRESHOLD OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM. ON THE LAST IMAGES,
AN EYE EMBRYO APPEARS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SMALL SIZE OF THE
SYSTEM JUSTIFIES A LESS CENTRAL PRESSURE THAN THAT PRESCRIBED BY THE
DVORAK TABLES.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST FOR SHORT TIMES: A LOW AND
MID_LEVEL RIDGE CENTRED ON THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN STEERS THE
SYSTEM GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS. FROM SATURDAY, WHEN THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY, THE DIRECTIONAL FLOW SHOULD COME
BACK DOWN TO THE LOW LEVELS INDUCING A MORE SOUTH-WESTERN TRACK THAN
INITIALLY EXPECTED : THE RESIDUAL MINIMUM SHOULD THUS DRIFT SOUTHWEST
AND CONTINUE TO FILL UNTIL MONDAY.

AMBALI CONTINUES TO BENEFITS FROM OVERALL GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS JUSTIFYING ITS CURRENT INTENSIFICATION : IN THE UPPER
LEVELS, DIVERGENCE REMAINS GOOD AND VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS LOW. OHC IS
PARTICULARLY HIGH OVER THIS AREA OF THE BASIN. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO STRENGTHEN AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS
BEFORE A GRADUAL WEAKENING AFTER THAT. INDEED, FROM FRIDAY AND
BEYOND, DUE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVELS TROUGH, A WESTERLY SHEAR
CONSTRAINT APPEARS IN THE MID-LEVELS, THEN IN THE UPPER LEVELS
QUICKLY AFTER, ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVELS DRY AIR INTRUSION. A RATHER
RAPID WEAKENING IS SUGGESTED BY THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST FOR SUCH A SMALL SYSTEM REMAINS CHALLENGING AND
ASSOCIATED WITH A GREATER THAN USUAL UNCERTAINTY.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 051233 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/3/20192020
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 3 (AMBALI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 05/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 9.0 S / 63.1 E
(NEUF DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE TROIS DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 60 NO: 60
34 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SO: 0 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 06/12/2019 00 UTC: 10.2 S / 62.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 06/12/2019 12 UTC: 11.6 S / 61.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 07/12/2019 00 UTC: 12.2 S / 61.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 07/12/2019 12 UTC: 12.7 S / 60.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 08/12/2019 00 UTC: 13.4 S / 59.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
72H: 08/12/2019 12 UTC: 14.2 S / 58.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 051233 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/3/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (AMBALI)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/05 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.0 S / 63.1 E
(NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 60 NW: 60
34 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SW: 0 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/06 00 UTC: 10.2 S / 62.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/12/06 12 UTC: 11.6 S / 61.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/12/07 00 UTC: 12.2 S / 61.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/12/07 12 UTC: 12.7 S / 60.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/12/08 00 UTC: 13.4 S / 59.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2019/12/08 12 UTC: 14.2 S / 58.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 051233
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/3/20192020
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 3 (AMBALI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 05/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 9.0 S / 63.1 E
(NEUF DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE TROIS DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 60 NO: 60
34 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SO: 0 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 06/12/2019 00 UTC: 10.2 S / 62.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 06/12/2019 12 UTC: 11.6 S / 61.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 07/12/2019 00 UTC: 12.2 S / 61.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 07/12/2019 12 UTC: 12.7 S / 60.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 08/12/2019 00 UTC: 13.4 S / 59.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
72H: 08/12/2019 12 UTC: 14.2 S / 58.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5

LA CONVECTION PROFONDE PERSISTE DURABLEMENT PRES DU CENTRE,
MAINTENANT UNE CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EN CENTRE NOYE DANS LA MASSE.
DANS CETTE CONFIGURATION, LES ESTIMATIONS SUBJECTIVES DE DVORAK
DISPONIBLES PERMETTENT DE DEFINIR UNE VALEUR DE 3.5, LAISSANT AMBALI
PASSER LE SEUIL DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE. SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES,
UN EMBRYON D'OEIL APPARAIT. A NOTER QUE LA PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME
JUSTIFIE UNE PRESSION CENTRALE MOINS CREUSE QUE CELLE PRESCRITE PAR
LES CORRESPONDANCES DVORAK.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE POUR LES
COURTES ECHEANCES : UNE DORSALE DE BASSE ET MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE
CENTREE SUR LA MOITIE EST DU BASSIN PILOTE UNE DESCENTE EN DIRECTION
GENERALE DU SUD-SUD-OUEST. A PARTIR DE SAMEDI, ALORS QUE LE SYSTEME
EST PREVU NETTEMENT S'AFFAIBLIR, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR DEVRAIT
REDESCENDRE DANS LES BAS NIVEAUX INDUISANT UNE TRAJECTOIRE PLUS
SUD-OUEST QU'INITIALEMENT PREVU : LE MINIMUM RESIDUEL DEVRAIT AINSI
DERIVER VERS LE SUD-OUEST EN CONTINUANT DE SE COMBLER JUSQU'A LUNDI.

AMBALI CONTINUE DE PROFITER DE CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES
FAVORABLES JUSTIFIANT SON INTENSIFICATION ACTUELLE : EN ALTITUDE, LA
DIVERGENCE RESTE BONNE ET LE CISAILLEMENT FAIBLE. UNE INTENSIFICATION
CLIMATOLOGIQUE EST TOUJOURS PREVUE POUR LES PROCHAINES 12H-24H SUIVIE
D'UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT AU-DELA. EN EFFET, A PARTIR DE VENDREDI, A
L'APPROCHE D'UN TALWEG, UNE CONTRAINTE D'OUEST SE MET EN PLACE DANS
LES MOYENS NIVEAUX PUIS RAPIDEMENT EN ALTITUDE, ASSOCIEE A UNE
INTRUSION D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPO. UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT ASSEZ RAPIDE
EST ALORS PROPOSE PAR LES MODELES NUMERIQUES DISPONIBLES. LA
PREVISION D'INTENSITE DE CE SYSTEME DE PETITE TAILLE RESTE UN
CHALLENGE ET PRESENTE UNE INCERTITUDE PLUS IMPORTANTE QUE LA NORMALE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 051233
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/3/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (AMBALI)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/05 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.0 S / 63.1 E
(NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 60 NW: 60
34 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SW: 0 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/06 00 UTC: 10.2 S / 62.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/12/06 12 UTC: 11.6 S / 61.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/12/07 00 UTC: 12.2 S / 61.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/12/07 12 UTC: 12.7 S / 60.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/12/08 00 UTC: 13.4 S / 59.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2019/12/08 12 UTC: 14.2 S / 58.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

THE DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS PERMANENTLY NEAR THE CENTRE, MAINTAINING
A CDO CLOUD PATTERN. IN THIS CONFIGURATION, THE SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES
OF DVORAK AVAILABLE ALLOW TO DEFINE A VALUE OF 3.5, ALLOWING AMBALI
TO PASS THE THRESHOLD OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM. ON THE LAST IMAGES,
AN EYE EMBRYO APPEARS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SMALL SIZE OF THE
SYSTEM JUSTIFIES A LESS CENTRAL PRESSURE THAN THAT PRESCRIBED BY THE
DVORAK TABLES.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST FOR SHORT TIMES: A LOW AND
MID_LEVEL RIDGE CENTRED ON THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN STEERS THE
SYSTEM GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS. FROM SATURDAY, WHEN THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY, THE DIRECTIONAL FLOW SHOULD COME
BACK DOWN TO THE LOW LEVELS INDUCING A MORE SOUTH-WESTERN TRACK THAN
INITIALLY EXPECTED : THE RESIDUAL MINIMUM SHOULD THUS DRIFT SOUTHWEST
AND CONTINUE TO FILL UNTIL MONDAY.

AMBALI CONTINUES TO BENEFITS FROM OVERALL GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS JUSTIFYING ITS CURRENT INTENSIFICATION : IN THE UPPER
LEVELS, DIVERGENCE REMAINS GOOD AND VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS LOW. OHC IS
PARTICULARLY HIGH OVER THIS AREA OF THE BASIN. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO STRENGTHEN AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS
BEFORE A GRADUAL WEAKENING AFTER THAT. INDEED, FROM FRIDAY AND
BEYOND, DUE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVELS TROUGH, A WESTERLY SHEAR
CONSTRAINT APPEARS IN THE MID-LEVELS, THEN IN THE UPPER LEVELS
QUICKLY AFTER, ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVELS DRY AIR INTRUSION. A RATHER
RAPID WEAKENING IS SUGGESTED BY THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST FOR SUCH A SMALL SYSTEM REMAINS CHALLENGING AND
ASSOCIATED WITH A GREATER THAN USUAL UNCERTAINTY.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 051208
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 05/12/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 007/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 05/12/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (AMBALI) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.0 S / 63.1 E
(NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 130 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 260 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 15 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
25 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 30 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 30
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/12/06 AT 00 UTC:
10.2 S / 62.3 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2019/12/06 AT 12 UTC:
11.6 S / 61.8 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 050900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMBALI) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMBALI) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 8.6S 63.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.6S 63.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 9.5S 62.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMBALI) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMBALI) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 8.6S 63.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.6S 63.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 9.5S 62.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 10.3S 62.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 11.0S 61.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 11.8S 61.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 13.3S 60.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 14.4S 58.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 8.8S 63.1E.
05DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMBALI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560
NM WEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES AND FMEE AND A 050452Z ASCAT-A
PASS. THE INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND SUPPORTED BY
45-50 KNOT WINDS EVIDENT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT DATA. TC 03S IS
TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYER STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH TIGHTLY WRAPPED DEEP
CONVECTION NOW EVIDENT OVER THE COMPACT LOW-LEVEL CENTER. LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KNOTS), A VERY WARM SEA SURFACE (29-30C)
AND A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE SOUTHEAST HAVE
CONTRIBUTED TO THE NOTED, ONGOING INTENSIFICATION TREND AND
ASSOCIATED IMPROVEMENT IN OVERALL STORM STRUCTURE. OVER THE NEXT 48
TO 72 HOURS, TC 03S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD FOLLOWING THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT STEERING
RIDGE. STEADY TO RAPID NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED AS
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE. IF RAPID INTENSIFICATION
CONTINUES, INTENSITY COULD PEAK ABOVE THE 70-KNOT MAXIMUM REFLECTED
IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. AFTER TAU 24, UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE, PARTICULARLY THE OUTFLOW PATTERN, HALTING THE
INTENSIFICATION TREND FOR THE COMPACT SYSTEM. SLOW TO STEADY
WEAKENING BETWEEN TAU 36 AND DISSIPATION AROUND TAU 96 IS ANTICIPATED
AS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LESS FAVORABLE OUTFLOW IMPACT
THE SYSTEM. AS THE SYSTEM SHALLOWS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, IT
WILL LIKELY TURN A BIT WESTWARD FOLLOWING THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL TRACK
FORECAST SCENARIO THROUGH TAU 36, BUT DIVERGE THEREAFTER DUE TO
DIFFERENCES IN THEIR PREDICTIONS OF STORM INTENSITY AND RESULTANT
STEERING LEVEL. THIS NOTED MODEL SPREAD LENDS LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE
CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
050600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z AND 060900Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 050649 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 7/3/20192020
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 3 (AMBALI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 05/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 8.6 S / 63.5 E
(HUIT DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE TROIS DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 998 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 60 NO: 60
34 KT NE: 40 SE: 60 SO: NO:

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 05/12/2019 18 UTC: 10.1 S / 62.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 06/12/2019 06 UTC: 11.4 S / 61.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 06/12/2019 18 UTC: 12.7 S / 61.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 07/12/2019 06 UTC: 13.2 S / 61.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 07/12/2019 18 UTC: 13.9 S / 60.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
72H: 08/12/2019 06 UTC: 14.8 S / 60.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0-

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 050649 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/3/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (AMBALI)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/05 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.6 S / 63.5 E
(EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 60 NW: 60
34 KT NE: 40 SE: 60 SW: NW:

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/05 18 UTC: 10.1 S / 62.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/12/06 06 UTC: 11.4 S / 61.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/12/06 18 UTC: 12.7 S / 61.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/12/07 06 UTC: 13.2 S / 61.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/12/07 18 UTC: 13.9 S / 60.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2019/12/08 06 UTC: 14.8 S / 60.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0-

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 050649
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 7/3/20192020
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 3 (AMBALI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 05/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 8.6 S / 63.5 E
(HUIT DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE TROIS DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 998 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 60 NO: 60
34 KT NE: 40 SE: 60 SO: NO:

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 05/12/2019 18 UTC: 10.1 S / 62.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 06/12/2019 06 UTC: 11.4 S / 61.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 06/12/2019 18 UTC: 12.7 S / 61.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 07/12/2019 06 UTC: 13.2 S / 61.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 07/12/2019 18 UTC: 13.9 S / 60.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
72H: 08/12/2019 06 UTC: 14.8 S / 60.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0-

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6HEURES, LA CONVECTION PROFONDE SE MAINTIENT
DURABLEMENT PRES DU CENTRE. LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EVOLUE EN
CENTRE NOYE DANS LA MASSE ET LES ESTIMATIONS SUBJECTIVES DE DVORAK
DISPONIBLES PERMETTENT DE DEFINIR UNE VALEUR DE 3.0-. LA PASSE ASCAT
DE 0452UTC PERMET DE LOCALISER DES VENTS DE 35KT DANS LE SECTEUR EST
DU SYSTEME. DE CE FAIT, LE SYSTEME 03 DEVIENT UNE TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE ET EST BAPTISE AMBALI A 06UTC.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE ET
D'INTENSITE, LES MODELES SONT EN ASSEZ BON ACCORD : UNE DORSALE DE
BASSE ET MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE CENTREE SUR LA MOITIE EST DU BASSIN
PILOTE UNE DESCENTE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD-SUD-OUEST. A PARTIR
DE VENDREDI, ALORS QUE LE SYSTEME EST PREVU NETTEMENT S'AFFAIBLIR, LE
FLUX DIRECTEUR DEVRAIT REDESCENDRE DANS LES BAS NIVEAUX. APRES AVOIR
BUTE SUR L'ANTICYCLONE AU SUD, LE MINIMUM RESIDUEL DEVRAIT ENSUITE
DERIVER VERS LE SUD-OUEST EN CONTINUANT DE SE COMBLER A L'ECHEANCE DE
DIMANCHE.

AMBALI CONTINUE DE PROFITER DE CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES PLUTOT
FAVORABLES JUSTIFIANT SON INTENSIFICATION ACTUELLE : EN ALTITUDE, LA
DIVERGENCE RESTE BONNE ET LE CISAILLEMENT FAIBLE. UNE INTENSIFICATION
CLIMATOLOGIQUE EST TOUJOURS PREVUE POUR LES PROCHAINES 12H-24H SUIVIE
D'UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT AU-DELA. EN EFFET, A PARTIR DE VENDREDI, A
L'APPROCHE D'UN TALWEG, UNE CONTRAINTE D'OUEST SE MET EN PLACE DANS
LES MOYENS NIVEAUX PUIS RAPIDEMENT EN ALTITUDE, ASSOCIEE A UNE
INTRUSION D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPO. UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT ASSEZ RAPIDE
EST ALORS PROPOSE PAR LES MODELES NUMERIQUES DISPONIBLES. LA
PREVISION D'INTENSITE DE CE SYSTEME DE PETITE TAILLE RESTE UN
CHALLENGE ET PRESENTE UNE INCERTITUDE PLUS IMPORTANTE QUE LA NORMALE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 050649
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/3/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (AMBALI)

2.A POSITION 2019/12/05 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.6 S / 63.5 E
(EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 60 NW: 60
34 KT NE: 40 SE: 60 SW: NW:

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/05 18 UTC: 10.1 S / 62.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/12/06 06 UTC: 11.4 S / 61.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/12/06 18 UTC: 12.7 S / 61.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/12/07 06 UTC: 13.2 S / 61.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/12/07 18 UTC: 13.9 S / 60.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2019/12/08 06 UTC: 14.8 S / 60.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN MAINTAINED NEAR THE
CENTRE. THE CLOUD PATTERN EVOLVES IN CDO AND THE SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES
OF DVORAK AVAILABLE ALLOW TO DEFINE A VALUE OF 3.0-. THE ASCAT SWATH
OF 0452UTC ALLOWS TO LOCATE WINDS OF 35KT IN THE EASTERN SECTOR OF
THE SYSTEM. AS A RESULT, SYSTEM 03 BECOMES A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
AND IS BAPTIZED AMBALI IN 06UTC.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST, THE MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON AMBALI : A LOW AND MID_LEVEL RIDGE CENTRED
ON THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN STEERS THE SYSTEM GENERALLY
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS. FROM FRIDAY, WHEN THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY,THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD COME BACK DOWN TO THE
LOW LEVELS. THUS, AFTER HAVING BUMPED INTO THE HIGH PRESSURES IN THE
SOUTH, THE RESIDUAL MINIMUM SHOULD THEN DRIFT SOUTHWEST, CONTINUING
TO FILL UP AT SUNDAY'S DEADLINE.

AMBALI CONTINUES TO BENEFITS FROM OVERALL GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS JUSTIFYING ITS CURRENT INTENSIFICATION : IN THE UPPER
LEVELS, DIVERGENCE REMAINS GOOD AND VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS LOW. OHC IS
PARTICULARLY HIGH OVER THIS AREA OF THE BASIN. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO STRENGTHEN AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS
BEFORE A GRADUAL WEAKENING AFTER THAT. INDEED, FROM FRIDAY AND
BEYOND, DUE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVELS TROUGH, A WESTERLY SHEAR
CONSTRAINT APPEARS IN THE MID-LEVELS, THEN IN THE UPPER LEVELS
QUICKLY AFTER, ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVELS DRY AIR INTRUSION. A RATHER
RAPID WEAKENING IS SUGGESTED BY THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST FOR SUCH A SMALL SYSTEM REMAINS CHALLENGING AND
ASSOCIATED WITH A GREATER THAN USUAL UNCERTAINTY.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 050629
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 05/12/2019
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 006/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 05/12/2019 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (AMBALI) 998 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.6 S / 63.5 E
(EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 220 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 20
NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 30
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/12/05 AT 18 UTC:
10.1 S / 62.6 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2019/12/06 AT 06 UTC:
11.4 S / 61.9 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

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