Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ERIN-19
in United States, Canada

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

2019-08-29 08:42

WTNT41 KNHC 290840
TCDAT1

Post-Tropical Cyclone Erin Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062019
500 AM EDT Thu Aug 29 2019

Satellite imagery and scatterometer data indicate that Erin is
merging with a frontal system and is now an extratropical low. The
low is expected to accelerate northeastward toward Nova Scotia over
the next 24 h, and some slight intensification is expected during
that time. After 24 h, the system is expected to be absorbed by a
larger extratropical low over eastern Canada.

This is the last advisory on Erin from the National Hurricane
Center. Additional information on this system can be found in High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 36.1N 71.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 29/1800Z 39.3N 69.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 30/0600Z 44.3N 64.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 30/1800Z...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-08-29 08:41

WTNT31 KNHC 290839
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Erin Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062019
500 AM EDT Thu Aug 29 2019

...ERIN BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.1N 71.6W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Erin
was located near latitude 36.1 North, longitude 71.6 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near 15
mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the northeast and a faster forward
motion are expected later today, with this motion continuing
through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The post-tropical cyclone is expected to strengthen a little on
Friday before it is absorbed by a larger extratropical low over
eastern Canada Friday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-08-29 08:41

WTNT21 KNHC 290839
TCMAT1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062019
0900 UTC THU AUG 29 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 71.6W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 71.6W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.5N 72.3W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 39.3N 69.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 44.3N 64.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.1N 71.6W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2019-08-29 04:00

WTNT82 EGRR 290400

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 29.08.2019

HURRICANE DORIAN ANALYSED POSITION : 19.0N 65.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.08.2019 0 19.0N 65.9W 1009 32
1200UTC 29.08.2019 12 20.9N 66.6W 1004 41
0000UTC 30.08.2019 24 22.8N 67.5W 998 48
1200UTC 30.08.2019 36 24.4N 69.0W 990 54
0000UTC 31.08.2019 48 25.6N 70.6W 981 65
1200UTC 31.08.2019 60 26.0N 72.4W 978 69
0000UTC 01.09.2019 72 26.3N 73.9W 974 73
1200UTC 01.09.2019 84 26.6N 75.5W 972 68
0000UTC 02.09.2019 96 26.9N 77.0W 967 74
1200UTC 02.09.2019 108 27.0N 78.4W 962 71
0000UTC 03.09.2019 120 26.7N 79.5W 959 76
1200UTC 03.09.2019 132 26.6N 80.2W 960 73
0000UTC 04.09.2019 144 27.3N 80.8W 966 66

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN ANALYSED POSITION : 34.8N 72.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.08.2019 0 34.8N 72.7W 1006 28
1200UTC 29.08.2019 12 37.2N 70.7W 1005 32
0000UTC 30.08.2019 24 41.4N 66.8W 1004 35
1200UTC 30.08.2019 36 46.6N 62.1W 1003 32
0000UTC 31.08.2019 48 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 290359

>

2019-08-29 04:00

WTNT80 EGRR 290359

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 29.08.2019

HURRICANE DORIAN ANALYSED POSITION : 19.0N 65.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 29.08.2019 19.0N 65.9W WEAK
12UTC 29.08.2019 20.9N 66.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 30.08.2019 22.8N 67.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 30.08.2019 24.4N 69.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 31.08.2019 25.6N 70.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 31.08.2019 26.0N 72.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.09.2019 26.3N 73.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.09.2019 26.6N 75.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.09.2019 26.9N 77.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.09.2019 27.0N 78.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.09.2019 26.7N 79.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.09.2019 26.6N 80.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.09.2019 27.3N 80.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN ANALYSED POSITION : 34.8N 72.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 29.08.2019 34.8N 72.7W WEAK
12UTC 29.08.2019 37.2N 70.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.08.2019 41.4N 66.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.08.2019 46.6N 62.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.08.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 290359

>

2019-08-29 02:40

WTNT41 KNHC 290238
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Erin Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062019
1100 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019

After being devoid of deep convection for much of the day, new
convection has developed around the center of Erin's circulation
over the past couple of hours, giving it a little more time
as a tropical cyclone. The current objective Dvorak intensity
estimate from TAFB is 30 kt, and so that will remain the initial
intensity for this advisory.

Westerly shear should prevent any intensification of Erin while it
remains a tropical cyclone tonight. On Thursday, the cyclone should
merge with a frontal system while it undergoes extratropical
transition. Thereafter, the merged system could strengthen due to
baroclinic processes.

Erin has accelerated and is now moving at 025/18 kt. The cyclone is
expected to move even faster to the northeast on Thursday and
continue northeastward until it merges with another extratropical
low by late Friday. The updated NHC track forecast is changed
little from the previous advisory, and lies near the middle of the
guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 35.6N 72.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 38.0N 70.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 30/0000Z 42.4N 66.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 30/1200Z 47.3N 62.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch

>

2019-08-29 02:40

WTNT31 KNHC 290238
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Erin Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062019
1100 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019

...ERIN HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.6N 72.1W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM E OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Erin
was located near latitude 35.6 North, longitude 72.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 21 mph (33
km/h) and a turn to the northeast with an increase in forward speed
is expected over the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Erin is expected to transition to an extratropical cyclone on
Thursday and then become absorbed by a larger low pressure system on
Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch

>

2019-08-29 02:39

WTNT21 KNHC 290237
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062019
0300 UTC THU AUG 29 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.6N 72.1W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.6N 72.1W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 72.6W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 38.0N 70.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 42.4N 66.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 47.3N 62.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.6N 72.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH

>

2019-08-28 20:46

WTNT31 KNHC 282044 CCA
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Erin Advisory Number 9...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062019
500 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019

...ERIN TURNS NORTHWARD...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.5N 72.7W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM ESE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Erin was
located near latitude 34.5 North, longitude 72.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). The
cyclone is expected to turn north-northeastward tonight and then
accelerate north-northeastward through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 12 hours, and
Erin is forecast to become post-tropical later tonight. The
cyclone could strengthen slightly after becoming an extratropical
low on Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-08-28 20:36

WTNT41 KNHC 282034
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Erin Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062019
500 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019

Strong northerly shear has continued to take a toll on Erin, with
the system becoming a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds. The
initial wind speed remains 30 kt, which is supported by earlier
ASCAT data and observations from buoy 41001. Northwesterly shear
should continue to prevent strengthening while the system remains
over warm waters tonight. If deep convection does not return soon,
the system is likely to become post-tropical. Erin or its remnants
should merge with a frontal system on Thursday and it could
strengthen due to baroclinic processes after that time. The new NHC
intensity forecast calls for the system to become an extratropical
gale in 24 hours, and is based on guidance from the NOAA Ocean
Prediction Center.

Erin has turned northward or 360/11 kt. The cyclone should turn
north-northeastward tonight ahead of an approaching mid-latitude
trough. After that time, it is expected to accelerate
north-northeastward until it merges with another extratropical
low by late Friday. The updated NHC track forecast is similar to
the previous advisory, and lies near the middle of the guidance
envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 34.5N 72.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 36.8N 71.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 29/1800Z 40.7N 68.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 30/0600Z 45.3N 64.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 30/1800Z 50.5N 60.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-08-28 20:36

WTNT31 KNHC 282033
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Erin Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062019
500 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019

...ERIN TURNS NORTHWARD...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.5N 72.7W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM ESE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Erin was
located near latitude 34.5 North, longitude 72.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). The
cyclone is expected to turn north-northeastward tonight and then
accelerate north-northeastward through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 12 hours, and
Dorian is forecast to become post-tropical later tonight. The
cyclone could strengthen slightly after becoming an extratropical
low on Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-08-28 20:35

WTNT21 KNHC 282033
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062019
2100 UTC WED AUG 28 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 72.7W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 72.7W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 72.9W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 36.8N 71.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 40.7N 68.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 45.3N 64.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 50.5N 60.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.5N 72.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2019-08-28 15:59

WTNT82 EGRR 281558

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 28.08.2019

TROPICAL STORM DORIAN ANALYSED POSITION : 16.7N 64.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.08.2019 0 16.7N 64.9W 1011 24
0000UTC 29.08.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM ERIN ANALYSED POSITION : 33.3N 72.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.08.2019 0 33.3N 72.8W 1007 29
0000UTC 29.08.2019 12 34.7N 72.7W 1006 29
1200UTC 29.08.2019 24 37.6N 69.9W 1003 36
0000UTC 30.08.2019 36 41.8N 66.3W 998 44
1200UTC 30.08.2019 48 46.2N 62.1W 999 39
0000UTC 31.08.2019 60 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 20.0N 67.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.08.2019 24 20.7N 67.5W 1007 38
0000UTC 30.08.2019 36 22.7N 68.5W 1000 45
1200UTC 30.08.2019 48 24.3N 70.1W 992 52
0000UTC 31.08.2019 60 25.6N 71.9W 984 63
1200UTC 31.08.2019 72 26.3N 73.9W 980 68
0000UTC 01.09.2019 84 26.6N 75.7W 975 69
1200UTC 01.09.2019 96 27.0N 77.1W 973 72
0000UTC 02.09.2019 108 27.0N 78.1W 968 71
1200UTC 02.09.2019 120 26.9N 78.8W 958 78
0000UTC 03.09.2019 132 26.6N 79.5W 957 85
1200UTC 03.09.2019 144 26.9N 80.2W 954 74


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 281558

>

2019-08-28 15:59

WTNT80 EGRR 281558

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 28.08.2019

TROPICAL STORM DORIAN ANALYSED POSITION : 16.7N 64.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 28.08.2019 16.7N 64.9W WEAK
00UTC 29.08.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM ERIN ANALYSED POSITION : 33.3N 72.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 28.08.2019 33.3N 72.8W WEAK
00UTC 29.08.2019 34.7N 72.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.08.2019 37.6N 69.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.08.2019 41.8N 66.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 30.08.2019 46.2N 62.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.08.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 20.0N 67.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 29.08.2019 20.7N 67.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.08.2019 22.7N 68.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 30.08.2019 24.3N 70.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 31.08.2019 25.6N 71.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 31.08.2019 26.3N 73.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.09.2019 26.6N 75.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.09.2019 27.0N 77.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.09.2019 27.0N 78.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.09.2019 26.9N 78.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.09.2019 26.6N 79.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.09.2019 26.9N 80.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 281558

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2019-08-28 14:38

WTNT41 KNHC 281436
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Erin Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062019
1100 AM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019

Erin has become less organized this morning with the center exposed
and becoming more removed from the remaining deep convection.
Satellite intensity estimates have decreased and a blend of these
support an initial wind speed of 30 kt. The northwesterly shear
that has been affecting Erin is forecast to decrease somewhat later
today and tonight, but given the current structure of the system,
little overall change in intensity is anticipated during that time.
If convection does not re-develop closer to the center later today,
Erin could become post-tropical. An alternate scenario is for the
circulation to become elongated and lose definition as a mid-
latitude trough approaches from the west. The global models suggest
that the trough is likely to help Erin or its remnants deepen
somewhat as an extratropical low on Thursday. The NHC intensity
forecast follows suit and shows little change in strength today,
then indicates that Erin or its remnants will become an
extratropical gale by 36 hours.

Erin is now moving north-northwestward at 11 kt. The dynamical model
guidance is in good agreement on Erin turning northward and then
northeastward by Thursday ahead of the aforementioned mid-latitude
trough. Erin or its remnants are forecast to accelerate and reach
Nova Scotia in about 36 hours. The guidance envelope has shifted
slightly westward, and the updated official forecast has been
adjusted accordingly.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 33.6N 72.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 35.5N 72.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 39.0N 70.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 43.8N 66.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 30/1200Z 48.9N 62.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

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2019-08-28 14:38

WTNT31 KNHC 281435
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Erin Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062019
1100 AM EDT Wed Aug 28 2019

...ERIN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.6N 72.8W
ABOUT 470 MI...760 KM WNW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Erin
was located near latitude 33.6 North, longitude 72.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20
km/h). The cyclone is expected to turn northward later today
and then north-northeastward early Thursday morning with an increase
in forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast through tonight. The system
could strengthen as an extratropical low on Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

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2019-08-28 14:37

WTNT21 KNHC 281435
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062019
1500 UTC WED AUG 28 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 72.8W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 72.8W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 72.8W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 35.5N 72.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 39.0N 70.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 43.8N 66.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 48.9N 62.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.6N 72.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

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