Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for SOULIK-18
in Japan

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTPN35 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 038
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 42.0N 134.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 30 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 42.0N 134.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 44.6N 139.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 46.7N 146.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 42.6N 135.8E.
TROPICAL STORM 22W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 317 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 30 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A RAPIDLY DETERIORATING SYSTEM WITH DISTINCT EXTRATROPICAL
FEATURES, SUCH AS A DECOUPLED AND EXPOSED LLCC, COMMA-SHAPED
ASYMMETRIC UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD AND EXPANDING WIND FIELD. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED
LLCC EVIDENT IN THE EIR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON A SUBTROPICAL FIX INTENSITY OF T1.5 (30-35
KNOTS) AND AN AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (35 KNOTS). THE
SYSTEM IS TRACKING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT HOSTILE TO THE WARM-CORE
TROPICAL STRUCTURE, WITH HIGH VWS, LOW SSTS (25 DEG C). THE SYSTEM
IS RAPIDLY TRANSITING TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP STR TO THE SOUTHEAST, AND AHEAD OF A DEEP MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE SYSTEM WILL COMPELTE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT BECOMES
EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WHILE MOVING INTO
THE SOUTHERN SEA OF OKHOTSK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 16 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W
(TWENTYFOUR) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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