ABPW10 PGTW 170200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/170200Z-170600ZSEP2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/161951ZSEP2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 16SEP25 1800Z, TROPICAL STORM 23W (TWENTYTHREE) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 122.2E, APPROXIMATELY 114 NM NORTHEAST OF MANILA, 
PHILIPPINES, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 162100) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
15.0N 137.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 136.6E, APPROXIMATELY 225 NM 
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 
A RECENT 162205Z F16 SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING, 
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH BROAD CONVECTIVE BANDING 
AND PERSISTENT, FLARING CONVECTION. A RECENT 162051Z SCATTEROMETER 
PASS REVEALS 15-20 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE CIRCULATION.ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 5-10 KNOTS, MODERATE DUAL-CHANNEL UPPER-LEVEL 
OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 30 TO 31 DEGREES 
CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON GRADUAL CONSOLIDATION AND 
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 
23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 22.9N 
167.1E, APPROXIMATELY 221 NM NORTH OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY OBSCURED, LOWER 
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION, PRIMARILY IN THE 
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A RECENT 162209Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A SHARP TROUGH 
WITH A SWATH OF WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST OF THE 
TROUGH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 10-15 KNOTS, GOOD 
POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) 
OF 29-30 C. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 
TRACK, BUT ARE SPLIT ON DEVELOPMENT, WITH ENSEMBLES SHOWING MORE 
INTENSIFICATION THAN THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF AND GFS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1013 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED 
AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO MEDIUM AND ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(2).//
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