ABIO10 PGTW 141800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/141800Z-151800ZDEC2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140751ZDEC2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 14DEC25 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (BAKUNG) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 10.4S 91.2E, APPROXIMATELY 352 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS 
ISLANDS, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 70 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 85 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 140900) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.3S 113.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.3S 113.0E, APPROXIMATELY 443 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (IR) 
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH SHALLOW 
AND DIFFUSE CONVECTION. A 141313Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE REVEALED SWATHS 
OF 15-20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES OF 
THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH FAIR POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL 
OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29 C). THE MAIN HINDRANCE FOR THE SYSTEM IS DRY 
AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 93S 
STAYING QUASISTATIONARY AS IT BEGINS TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS BEFORE TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD. GFS IS THE FIRST TO 
CONSOLIDATE THE SYSTEM WHILE THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE MORE 
HESITANT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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