ABIO10 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/110900Z-111800ZDEC2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/110851ZDEC2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
5.7S 100.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.3S 101.3E, APPROXIMATELY 395 NM 
NORTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
OBSCURED BY DEEP CONVECTION IN THE UPPER LEVELS. AN 110223Z METOP-C 25KM 
ASCAT PASS DEPICTS ELEVATED WINDS (25-30 KTS) IN THE NORTH-NORTHWESTERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND 
WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. WHILE 91S HAS GOOD POLEWARD AND 
EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, IT IS CURRENTLY BEING RESTRICTED ON THE 
EASTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE 
IN AGREEMENT ON A STEADY DEVELOPMENT AS IT TRANSITS SOUTHWESTWARD AWAY 
FROM SUMATRA AND CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 
110900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO HIGH.//
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