ABIO10 PGTW 102230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/102230Z-111800ZDEC2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
4.8S 99.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.7S 100.1E, APPROXIMATELY 399 NM WEST OF 
JAKARTA, INDONESIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY 
AND A 101520Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS AS WELL AS ELEVATED WINDS IN THE NORTH-NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF 
THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS), WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C), AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. DETERMINISTIC 
AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON A STEADY DEVELOPMENT AS IT 
INITIALLY TRANSITS SOUTHEAST ALONG SUMATRA AND CONSOLIDATING OVER THE 
NEXT 36-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 
27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.//
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