WTPZ44 KNHC 050248 RRA

TCDEP4



TROPICAL DEPRESSION RAMON DISCUSSION NUMBER   4

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192017

1000 PM CDT WED OCT 04 2017



MEXICAN RADAR DATA, SHIP OBSERVATIONS, AND LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE

IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE ORIGINAL LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF RAMON HAS

DISSIPATED.  EARLIER ASCAT DATA INDICATED THE FORMATION OF A NEW

CENTER UNDER CONVECTION WELL TO THE WEST, AND THIS HAS PROBABLY

BECOME THE PRIMARY CENTER, IF ONE STILL EXISTS.  AS A RESULT, THE

INITIAL POSITION OF RAMON HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE

WEST.  WHATEVER REMAINS OF RAMON WILL LIKELY BE STEERED GENERALLY

WESTWARD BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.  SINCE

MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE NO LONGER DEPICTS A TRACKABLE LOW-LEVEL

CENTER, THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS

ADVISORY, IN AN EFFORT TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY.  THEREFORE, THE

FORECAST SHOWS A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN

FORWARD SPEED UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES, IN 24 HOURS OR LESS.



DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE DECREASED AND RAMON IS NOW ESTIMATED TO

BE A 30 KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS

FORECAST THAT RAMON WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY, AND IN FACT THE MOST

RECENT RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND UKMET SUGGEST THAT ONLY A TROUGH SHOULD

EXIST NOW.  THERE IS SOME INDICATION FROM THE GFS AND THE GFS-BASED

HURRICANE MODELS THAT THE MID-LEVEL REMNANTS OF RAMON COULD INTERACT

WITH A DISTURBANCE TO THE WEST IN A DAY OR TWO AND REGENERATE, OR

CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE.  HOWEVER,

THIS IS NOT SUPPORTED BY ANY OF THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS, AND 30 KT

OR MORE OF SHEAR SHOULD PROHIBIT SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT.