WTNT82 EGRR 211607



  MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC



             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 21.09.2017



        TROPICAL STORM JOSE       ANALYSED POSITION : 39.7N  68.0W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122017



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 21.09.2017    0  39.7N  68.0W      983            48

    0000UTC 22.09.2017   12  39.5N  68.2W      987            42

    1200UTC 22.09.2017   24  39.5N  69.2W      992            41

    0000UTC 23.09.2017   36  39.8N  69.4W      995            36

    1200UTC 23.09.2017   48  39.4N  69.1W     1000            31

    0000UTC 24.09.2017   60  39.2N  67.3W     1004            29

    1200UTC 24.09.2017   72  39.5N  66.8W     1006            30

    0000UTC 25.09.2017   84  39.1N  66.6W     1006            27

    1200UTC 25.09.2017   96  39.8N  66.2W     1006            31

    0000UTC 26.09.2017  108  40.3N  65.1W     1004            34

    1200UTC 26.09.2017  120  40.6N  63.0W     1001            35

    0000UTC 27.09.2017  132  41.0N  60.3W     1000            35

    1200UTC 27.09.2017  144  41.6N  56.7W      994            44



             HURRICANE MARIA      ANALYSED POSITION : 20.0N  68.7W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152017



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 21.09.2017    0  20.0N  68.7W      960            74

    0000UTC 22.09.2017   12  20.8N  70.1W      956            81

    1200UTC 22.09.2017   24  22.0N  70.8W      952            78

    0000UTC 23.09.2017   36  23.6N  71.5W      949            77

    1200UTC 23.09.2017   48  25.3N  72.2W      939            82

    0000UTC 24.09.2017   60  27.0N  72.4W      930            87

    1200UTC 24.09.2017   72  28.8N  72.7W      936            79

    0000UTC 25.09.2017   84  30.1N  72.4W      942            77

    1200UTC 25.09.2017   96  31.0N  72.4W      951            73

    0000UTC 26.09.2017  108  31.5N  71.9W      951            72

    1200UTC 26.09.2017  120  31.7N  71.0W      949            73

    0000UTC 27.09.2017  132  32.0N  70.0W      947            75

    1200UTC 27.09.2017  144  32.2N  68.9W      947            77



       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  48 HOURS

              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 18.3N 105.5W



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 23.09.2017   48  18.3N 105.5W     1002            30

    0000UTC 24.09.2017   60  19.5N 106.1W      998            39

    1200UTC 24.09.2017   72  20.5N 106.9W      997            38

    0000UTC 25.09.2017   84  21.1N 106.9W     1001            29

    1200UTC 25.09.2017   96  21.7N 107.1W     1002            28

    0000UTC 26.09.2017  108  22.5N 107.5W     1002            25

    1200UTC 26.09.2017  120  23.4N 108.1W     1002            26

    0000UTC 27.09.2017  132  24.2N 108.5W     1001            26

    1200UTC 27.09.2017  144  25.0N 108.9W     1001            34



       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  96 HOURS

              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 13.6N  92.8W



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 25.09.2017   96  13.6N  92.8W     1003            31

    0000UTC 26.09.2017  108  14.5N  93.0W     1000            40

    1200UTC 26.09.2017  120  15.0N  93.6W     1003            33

    0000UTC 27.09.2017  132  15.8N  94.2W     1003            29

    1200UTC 27.09.2017  144              CEASED TRACKING



       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS

              FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 11.6N 132.9W



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 27.09.2017  144  11.6N 132.9W     1007            25





 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.



 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK



 TOO 211607