WTNT82 EGRR 201606



  MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC



             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 20.09.2017



        TROPICAL STORM JOSE       ANALYSED POSITION : 38.7N  69.9W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122017



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 20.09.2017    0  38.7N  69.9W      974            51

    0000UTC 21.09.2017   12  39.3N  68.5W      978            46

    1200UTC 21.09.2017   24  39.6N  67.9W      984            46

    0000UTC 22.09.2017   36  39.5N  68.2W      987            43

    1200UTC 22.09.2017   48  39.7N  69.1W      990            42

    0000UTC 23.09.2017   60  39.8N  69.6W      993            38

    1200UTC 23.09.2017   72  39.7N  70.0W      998            31

    0000UTC 24.09.2017   84  39.6N  69.8W     1003            28

    1200UTC 24.09.2017   96  39.3N  69.9W     1007            26

    0000UTC 25.09.2017  108  38.8N  70.7W     1010            22

    1200UTC 25.09.2017  120              CEASED TRACKING



        TROPICAL STORM LEE        ANALYSED POSITION : 18.0N  46.6W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142017



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 20.09.2017    0  18.0N  46.6W     1009            28

    0000UTC 21.09.2017   12  18.6N  47.3W     1010            25

    1200UTC 21.09.2017   24  20.2N  48.1W     1011            24

    0000UTC 22.09.2017   36  22.5N  49.0W     1013            23

    1200UTC 22.09.2017   48  25.0N  49.9W     1014            21

    0000UTC 23.09.2017   60              CEASED TRACKING



             HURRICANE MARIA      ANALYSED POSITION : 18.0N  66.3W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152017



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 20.09.2017    0  18.0N  66.3W      953            72

    0000UTC 21.09.2017   12  19.2N  67.5W      953            81

    1200UTC 21.09.2017   24  20.2N  69.0W      957            83

    0000UTC 22.09.2017   36  20.7N  70.4W      958            77

    1200UTC 22.09.2017   48  21.8N  71.0W      956            83

    0000UTC 23.09.2017   60  23.2N  71.5W      955            75

    1200UTC 23.09.2017   72  24.7N  72.0W      952            78

    0000UTC 24.09.2017   84  26.5N  72.4W      943            82

    1200UTC 24.09.2017   96  28.2N  72.5W      936            85

    0000UTC 25.09.2017  108  29.8N  72.4W      940            75

    1200UTC 25.09.2017  120  31.1N  71.8W      951            74

    0000UTC 26.09.2017  132  32.2N  71.0W      944            81

    1200UTC 26.09.2017  144  33.3N  70.7W      944            74



       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  66 HOURS

              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 17.1N 103.6W



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 23.09.2017   72  17.0N 104.3W      999            34

    0000UTC 24.09.2017   84  17.5N 105.0W      995            41

    1200UTC 24.09.2017   96  18.0N 105.5W      993            47

    0000UTC 25.09.2017  108  18.0N 105.8W      995            40

    1200UTC 25.09.2017  120  18.0N 106.1W      998            35

    0000UTC 26.09.2017  132  18.1N 106.0W      999            35

    1200UTC 26.09.2017  144  18.7N 106.1W     1000            36



       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS

              FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 31.9N  56.0W



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    0000UTC 25.09.2017  108  31.9N  56.0W     1015            18

    1200UTC 25.09.2017  120  32.0N  56.3W     1015            18

    0000UTC 26.09.2017  132  32.3N  56.7W     1015            18

    1200UTC 26.09.2017  144              CEASED TRACKING





 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.



 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK



 TOO 201606