WTNT80 EGRR 200409 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 20.09.2017 TROPICAL STORM JOSE ANALYSED POSITION : 37.5N 71.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122017 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 20.09.2017 37.5N 71.0W STRONG 12UTC 20.09.2017 38.7N 70.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2017 39.5N 68.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2017 39.7N 67.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.09.2017 39.5N 67.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2017 39.3N 68.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2017 39.4N 69.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.09.2017 39.2N 70.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.09.2017 39.1N 70.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.09.2017 38.6N 70.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.09.2017 38.2N 72.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.09.2017 38.4N 74.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.09.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE MARIA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.0N 64.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152017 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 20.09.2017 17.0N 64.3W STRONG 12UTC 20.09.2017 18.1N 66.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.09.2017 19.1N 67.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2017 20.0N 68.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2017 20.8N 70.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.09.2017 22.1N 70.6W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2017 23.5N 71.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.09.2017 24.7N 71.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.09.2017 26.3N 71.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.09.2017 27.8N 72.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.09.2017 29.0N 71.8W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.09.2017 30.2N 71.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.09.2017 31.4N 71.1W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMA ANALYSED POSITION : 21.7N 115.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172017 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 20.09.2017 21.7N 115.3W WEAK 12UTC 20.09.2017 22.2N 115.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 18.0N 45.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 20.09.2017 18.0N 45.0W WEAK 12UTC 20.09.2017 18.6N 46.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2017 19.5N 48.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2017 20.8N 49.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2017 22.3N 50.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2017 24.2N 51.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2017 25.9N 52.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.09.2017 27.7N 53.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.09.2017 28.6N 54.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.09.2017 29.4N 54.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.09.2017 29.8N 54.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.09.2017 30.3N 55.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.09.2017 30.6N 56.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 18.5N 105.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 23.09.2017 18.5N 105.8W WEAK 00UTC 24.09.2017 18.8N 106.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.09.2017 19.2N 106.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.09.2017 19.2N 106.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.09.2017 19.2N 106.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.09.2017 19.5N 106.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 12.1N 141.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 26.09.2017 12.5N 142.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 200409