WTNT82 EGRR 111605



  MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC



             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 11.09.2017



        TROPICAL STORM IRMA       ANALYSED POSITION : 29.7N  82.8W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112017



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 11.09.2017    0  29.7N  82.8W      967            57

    0000UTC 12.09.2017   12  32.3N  84.4W      986            34

    1200UTC 12.09.2017   24  34.3N  86.6W      999            23

    0000UTC 13.09.2017   36  35.3N  88.9W     1002            15

    1200UTC 13.09.2017   48              CEASED TRACKING



             HURRICANE JOSE       ANALYSED POSITION : 25.2N  69.6W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122017



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 11.09.2017    0  25.2N  69.6W      969            70

    0000UTC 12.09.2017   12  26.9N  70.1W      968            70

    1200UTC 12.09.2017   24  27.4N  69.3W      957            75

    0000UTC 13.09.2017   36  26.7N  67.7W      954            76

    1200UTC 13.09.2017   48  25.5N  67.0W      953            78

    0000UTC 14.09.2017   60  24.3N  67.1W      952            78

    1200UTC 14.09.2017   72  23.6N  68.4W      945            85

    0000UTC 15.09.2017   84  23.4N  70.4W      947            85

    1200UTC 15.09.2017   96  23.6N  72.9W      940            87

    0000UTC 16.09.2017  108  24.2N  75.5W      941            85

    1200UTC 16.09.2017  120  25.0N  77.7W      933            89

    0000UTC 17.09.2017  132  26.1N  79.2W      937            85

    1200UTC 17.09.2017  144  27.4N  80.4W      936            90



       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  54 HOURS

              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 10.5N 133.9W



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    0000UTC 14.09.2017   60  10.5N 133.9W     1006            25

    1200UTC 14.09.2017   72  10.8N 134.3W     1006            27

    0000UTC 15.09.2017   84  11.1N 134.5W     1005            32

    1200UTC 15.09.2017   96  12.0N 134.5W     1004            31

    0000UTC 16.09.2017  108  13.2N 134.5W     1005            30

    1200UTC 16.09.2017  120  13.9N 134.7W     1006            26

    0000UTC 17.09.2017  132  14.4N 135.0W     1006            24

    1200UTC 17.09.2017  144  14.7N 135.5W     1006            26



       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  72 HOURS

              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 17.4N 117.5W



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 14.09.2017   72  17.4N 117.5W     1000            35

    0000UTC 15.09.2017   84  18.7N 118.3W      998            38

    1200UTC 15.09.2017   96  20.2N 117.9W      997            38

    0000UTC 16.09.2017  108  21.0N 117.5W      996            38

    1200UTC 16.09.2017  120  21.6N 117.0W      992            46

    0000UTC 17.09.2017  132  22.6N 115.8W      988            51

    1200UTC 17.09.2017  144  23.6N 115.1W      989            47



       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  96 HOURS

              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 11.7N  38.4W



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 15.09.2017   96  11.7N  38.4W     1009            31

    0000UTC 16.09.2017  108  12.4N  42.4W     1003            40

    1200UTC 16.09.2017  120  13.4N  45.9W      994            47

    0000UTC 17.09.2017  132  14.8N  48.5W      989            54

    1200UTC 17.09.2017  144  15.9N  50.2W      987            54



       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS

              FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 36.1N  38.8W



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    0000UTC 17.09.2017  132  36.1N  38.8W     1015            22

    1200UTC 17.09.2017  144  36.6N  39.2W     1015            25





 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.



 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK



 TOO 111605