WTNT82 EGRR 051610



  MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC



             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 05.09.2017



             HURRICANE IRMA       ANALYSED POSITION : 16.7N  57.7W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112017



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 05.09.2017    0  16.7N  57.7W      943            92

    0000UTC 06.09.2017   12  17.2N  60.2W      951            84

    1200UTC 06.09.2017   24  17.9N  63.0W      952            81

    0000UTC 07.09.2017   36  18.9N  65.4W      958            76

    1200UTC 07.09.2017   48  19.8N  68.0W      955            80

    0000UTC 08.09.2017   60  20.6N  70.7W      937            93

    1200UTC 08.09.2017   72  20.9N  73.1W      946            86

    0000UTC 09.09.2017   84  20.9N  75.2W      947            83

    1200UTC 09.09.2017   96  21.0N  77.2W      953            72

    0000UTC 10.09.2017  108  21.2N  78.7W      951            73

    1200UTC 10.09.2017  120  22.2N  79.7W      947            87

    0000UTC 11.09.2017  132  23.5N  79.6W      936            88

    1200UTC 11.09.2017  144  25.5N  79.5W      915            96



 TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 12.5N  39.2W



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 05.09.2017    0  12.5N  39.2W     1011            27

    0000UTC 06.09.2017   12  12.8N  41.5W     1010            27

    1200UTC 06.09.2017   24  13.5N  43.8W     1006            41

    0000UTC 07.09.2017   36  14.4N  46.5W     1001            46

    1200UTC 07.09.2017   48  15.3N  49.7W      995            55

    0000UTC 08.09.2017   60  16.0N  52.9W      988            64

    1200UTC 08.09.2017   72  16.8N  55.8W      987            64

    0000UTC 09.09.2017   84  17.7N  58.4W      984            68

    1200UTC 09.09.2017   96  18.6N  60.2W      979            68

    0000UTC 10.09.2017  108  20.0N  61.7W      977            72

    1200UTC 10.09.2017  120  21.7N  63.5W      976            67

    0000UTC 11.09.2017  132  23.6N  65.2W      973            68

    1200UTC 11.09.2017  144  25.3N  66.1W      973            70



       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  18 HOURS

              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 21.8N  95.3W



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 06.09.2017   24  21.6N  95.4W     1006            30

    0000UTC 07.09.2017   36  21.7N  94.2W     1003            36

    1200UTC 07.09.2017   48  21.4N  94.2W     1000            41

    0000UTC 08.09.2017   60  21.5N  94.3W      989            52

    1200UTC 08.09.2017   72  21.4N  95.0W      983            54

    0000UTC 09.09.2017   84  20.7N  95.7W      976            69

    1200UTC 09.09.2017   96  20.0N  97.2W     1003            30

    0000UTC 10.09.2017  108              CEASED TRACKING



       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS

              FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 12.0N 144.8W



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 10.09.2017  120  12.0N 144.8W     1008            23

    0000UTC 11.09.2017  132  12.4N 145.1W     1007            24

    1200UTC 11.09.2017  144  12.9N 145.1W     1007            26



       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS

              FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 18.0N 106.9W



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    0000UTC 11.09.2017  132  18.0N 106.9W     1003            25

    1200UTC 11.09.2017  144  18.1N 110.6W     1001            31





 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.



 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK



 TOO 051610