WTPZ44 KNHC 300850 RRA

TCDEP4



POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142017

300 AM MDT WED AUG 30 2017



THE LARGE DISTURBANCE OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO

GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED, WITH SOME BANDING FEATURES OVER

THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BROAD CIRCULATION.  THERE IS STILL NO

INDICATION OF A WELL-DEFINED CENTER, HOWEVER.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY

ESTIMATE REMAINS 25 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH A DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM

TAFB.  THE SYSTEM/TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF

WEAK TO MODERATE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW

DAYS SO ONCE THE CIRCULATION CONSOLIDATES, STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY

UNTIL THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA

CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  GIVEN THE SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT,

THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN THE MODEL

CONSENSUS.  THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE WHEN IT NEARS BAJA

CALIFORNIA SUR, ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWN IN THE NHC

FORECAST. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN

WHILE IT TRAVERSES THE COOLER WATER NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO ON THE

BAJA PENINSULA.



AS BEFORE, WITH THE LACK OF A DEFINITE CENTER THE INITIAL MOTION IS

QUITE UNCERTAIN, WITH THE CURRENT ESTIMATE AT 325/9 KT.  FOR THE

NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, THE SYSTEM/TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE

SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ON THE EASTERN END OF A BROAD MID-LEVEL

CYCLONIC GYRE.  IN 3-5 DAYS THE MOTION SHOULD BEND TOWARD THE

NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST DUE TO A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.

THE NHC TRACK FORECAST LIES IN BETWEEN THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF