WTPZ44 KNHC 012035 RRA

TCDEP4



TROPICAL STORM LIDIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142017

300 PM MDT FRI SEP 01 2017



THE CENTER OF LIDIA HAS BEEN MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF

THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  WHILE THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN

HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT RAGGED, A RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM

LORETO, MEXICO INDICATES THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR

50 KT.  THE STORM ALSO CONTINUES TO HAVE A LARGE WIND FIELD IN THE

EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AS SHOWN BY A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TROPICAL-

STORM-FORCE WINDS AT LOS MOCHIS ON THE MEXICAN MAINLAND.



WEAKENING IS EXPECTED WHILE THE CIRCULATION INTERACTS WITH THE

MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  HOWEVER, TROPICAL-STORM-

FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND WELL EAST OF THE CENTER, RIDING

UP THE PENINSULA AND ADJACENT GULF OF CALIFORNIA FOR ABOUT THE

NEXT 24 HOURS.  WHEN LIDIA EMERGES OVER THE PACIFIC, IT IS EXPECTED

TO BE OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW 24C, WHICH SHOULD

CAUSE IT TO QUICKLY DECAY TO A REMNANT LOW.  THE LATEST LARGE-SCALE

MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A CIRCULATION SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH

96 H, POSSIBLY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A NEARBY MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL

LOW LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THUS, A 96 H POINT HAS BEEN

INCLUDED.



THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 325/10.  LIDIA REMAINS BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL

HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND THE

AFOREMENTIONED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH

OVER THE PACIFIC, AND THESE FEATURES SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A

GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR THE NEXT 72 H OR SO, FOLLOWED BY A

TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK HAS THE