WTPZ44 KNHC 011450 RRA

TCDEP4



TROPICAL STORM LIDIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142017

900 AM MDT FRI SEP 01 2017



SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF LIDIA HAS MADE

LANDFALL ON THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WEST OF LA PAZ.  THE

CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF THE CYCLONE HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST

SEVERAL HOURS AND, BASED ON THIS AND CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS

ADVISORY, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 50 KT.  THE STORM

CONTINUES TO HAVE A LARGE WIND FIELD IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AS

SHOWN BY A RECENT REPORT OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS IN LOS

MOCHIS ON THE MEXICAN MAINLAND.



THE INITIAL MOTION IS 325/8.  LIDIA REMAINS BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL HIGH

CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND A MID-LEVEL TROUGH

SOUTHWEST OVER THE PACIFIC, AND THESE FEATURES SHOULD KEEP LIDIA ON

A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.  THE NEW

FORECAST TRACK HAS THE CENTER OVER OR JUST OFF OF THE WEST COAST OF

THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT 30-36 H BEFORE EMERGING

OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN.  OVERALL THE NEW TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE

PREVIOUS TRACK THAT LIES CLOSE TO THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS.



STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED WHILE THE CIRCULATION INTERACTS WITH

THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  HOWEVER, TROPICAL-

STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND WELL EAST OF THE CENTER,

RIDING UP THE PENINSULA AND ADJACENT GULF OF CALIFORNIA FOR AT LEAST

THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  WHEN LIDIA EMERGES OVER THE PACIFIC, IT IS

EXPECTED TO BE OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW 24C,

WHICH SHOULD CAUSE IT TO QUICKLY DECAY TO A REMNANT LOW. THE NEW