WTPZ43 KNHC 230237 RRA

TCDEP3



TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  19

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132017

800 PM PDT TUE AUG 22 2017



KENNETH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN.  THE EYE FEATURE THAT WAS

EVIDENT SEVERAL HOURS AGO HAS FILLED IN, AND A RECENT SSMIS

MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS NOW MORE ASYMMETRIC DUE TO

SOUTHERLY SHEAR.  A PAIR OF ASCAT PASSES FROM AROUND 1800 UTC SHOWED

MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE 55-60 KT RANGE.  ASSUMING SOME WEAKENING SINCE

THE TIME OF THAT DATA, THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 55 KT.

THIS ESTIMATE IS ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST T- AND

CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB/SAB AND ADT VALUES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY

OF WISCONSIN.



KENNETH IS OVER COOL 24 DEG C WATERS, SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR, AND

MOVING TOWARD AN ENVIRONMENT OF EVEN HIGHER SOUTHERLY WIND SHEAR.

THESE HOSTILE CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO KEEP WEAKENING,

AND THE NHC FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR KENNETH TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW

IN 36 HOURS.  THE REMNANT LOW WILL LIKELY ONLY SLOWLY SPIN DOWN AS

DEPICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.  THIS INTENSITY FORECAST IS LARGELY

AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.



THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KT ON THE

WEST SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A

DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE

THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO A PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.  BY THE

END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE SHALLOW CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN

TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO

THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK PREDICTION, AND THIS FORECAST LIES CLOSEST

TO THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS.