WTPZ43 KNHC 211432 RRA

TCDEP3



HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  13

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132017

800 AM PDT MON AUG 21 2017



KENNETH CONTINUES TO HAVE AN IMPRESSIVE STRUCTURE IN SATELLITE

IMAGES.  THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE REMAINS DISTINCT, AND THE

CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS SYMMETRIC AROUND THE CENTER.  THE CLOUD

TOPS IN THE EYEWALL, HOWEVER, ARE NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THEY WERE

OVERNIGHT, WHICH RESULTED IN A DECREASE OF THE 1200 UTC DVORAK

FINAL-T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB.  BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THE FINAL

T- AND CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB/SAB AND ADT VALUES FROM CIMSS AT THE

UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN, THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED A

LITTLE, TO 110 KT.



KENNETH HAS LIKELY REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY AS IT WILL BE

CROSSING THE 26 DEG C ISOTHERM LATER TODAY.  IN ADDITION, THE

HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING INTO A PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR MASS.

THESE UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS COMBINED WITH A SIGNIFICANT

INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY SHEAR BEGINNING IN ABOUT 2 DAYS SHOULD CAUSE

KENNETH TO WEAKEN AT A STEADY OR RAPID PACE.  THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST

TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT 3 DAYS WHEN THE SHEAR IS

EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KT WHILE KENNETH IS OVER SSTS BELOW

23 DEG C.  THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION

TO DISSIPATE OR BE SHEARED AWAY FROM THE CIRCULATION.  THE NHC

INTENSITY FORECAST GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE IVCN AND HCCA CONSENSUS

MODELS.



THE MAJOR HURRICANE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 9 KT STEERED BY

A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTHEAST.  THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TURN

TO THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD

MOTION BY LATE TUESDAY AS KENNETH MOVES INTO A PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS