WTPZ43 KNHC 210846 RRA

TCDEP3



HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  12

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132017

200 AM PDT MON AUG 21 2017



KENNETH HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY SINCE THE PREVIOUS

ADVISORY.  THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE HURRICANE IS QUITE

IMPRESSIVE, AS A 15-NMI WIDE EYE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED WHILE

THE CLOUD TOPS OF THE SURROUNDING RING OF CONVECTION HAS COOLED.

DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM T5.5 (102 KT) FROM SAB,

T6.0 (115 KT) FROM TAFB, TO T6.3 (122 KT) FROM UW/CIMSS.  USING A

BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES, THE INITIAL WIND SPEED HAS BEEN INCREASED

TO 115 KT, MAKING KENNETH A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE

SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.



THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO PEAK IN INTENSITY VERY SOON AS IT WILL

BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS

LATER TODAY.  AFTER THAT TIME, COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND

LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE STEADY

WEAKENING.  IN 3 TO 4 DAYS, INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR FROM AN

UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 140W AND SUB 23C SSTS SHOULD CAUSE

KENNETH'S DEEP CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE, RESULTING IN THE SYSTEM

BECOMING A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS

SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AT 12 AND 24 H DUE TO THE

HIGHER INITIAL INTENSITY.  AFTER THAT TIME, THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY

SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, AND IS A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS

INTENSITY AIDS.



THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT

9 KT. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS THE SAME AS THE

PREVIOUS ADVISORY, AS KENNETH IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD

TODAY, THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ON TUESDAY BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE