WTPZ43 KNHC 210252 RRA

TCDEP3



HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  11

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132017

800 PM PDT SUN AUG 20 2017



KENNETH HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE THIS

EVENING, AS THE EYE HAS DRAMATICALLY WARMED AND THE SURROUNDING

CLOUD TOPS OF THE EYEWALL HAVE COOLED.  AT 00Z, A BLEND OF TAFB,

SAB, AND ADT DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AVERAGED MAXIMUM WINDS OF

95 KT. HOWEVER, THE CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE LAST

THREE HOURS SUGGESTS THAT THE ADVISORY INTENSITY BE BOOSTED TO

100 KT, AND EVEN THAT MAY BE CONSERVATIVE.



WHILE THE HURRICANE HAS SHOWN AN IMPRESSIVE EVOLUTION IN THE LAST

DAY, THIS SHOULD NOT CONTINUE MUCH LONGER.  KENNETH WILL REACH THE

26C SST ISOTHERM WITH DRIER, LESS UNSTABLE AIR LATE MONDAY, AND IT

IS ANTICIPATED THAT KENNETH WILL PEAK BY THEN.  IN ABOUT THREE

DAYS, THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL GO UP APPRECIABLY DUE TO KENNETH

APPROACHING AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.  THE COMBINATION OF THE HOSTILE

THERMODYNAMICS AND SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE A STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH

THE FORECAST PERIOD.  KENNETH'S DEEP CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO

DISSIPATE IN THREE TO FOUR DAYS, SIGNALING THE SYSTEM'S

TRANSFORMATION TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY

FORECAST IS SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY IN THE SHORT-TERM

DUE TO THE UNANTICIPATED RAPID INTENSIFICATION, BUT SIMILAR FOR 36

HOURS AND BEYOND.  THIS PREDICTION IS CLOSEST TO A BLEND OF THE HMON

DYNAMICAL MODEL AND THE LGEM/SHIPS STATISTICAL MODELS.



THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 KT, STEERED

BY A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTHEAST.  KENNETH SHOULD

GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF