WTPZ43 KNHC 202033 RRA

TCDEP3



HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  10

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132017

200 PM PDT SUN AUG 20 2017



KENNETH HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING RAPIDLY DURING THE LAST SEVERAL

HOURS.  AN EYE HAS APPEARED IN GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES AND

DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING IN INTENSITY, ESPECIALLY TO THE

EAST OF THE CENTER.  THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE

INCREASED, AND AN AVERAGE OF THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB,

SAB, AND ADT VALUES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN

SUPPORT RAISING THE INITIAL WIND SPEED TO 80 KT.



THE HURRICANE IS STILL NOT GAINING MUCH LATITUDE, AND THE INITIAL

MOTION IS 280/11 KT, WHICH IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE.  THE

TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER.  A DECREASE IN

FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS

THE HURRICANE MOVES ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE.

AFTER THAT TIME, KENNETH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD

AND SLOW DOWN EVEN MORE AS IT MOVES INTO A BREAK IN THE RIDGE CAUSED

BY A CUT OFF LOW NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST.  THE TRACK MODELS HAVE

SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST BEYOND 48 HOURS, AND THE NHC FORECAST

HAS BEEN NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION.



KENNETH HAS ALREADY INTENSIFIED MORE THAN EXPECTED, AND IT STILL

HAS ABOUT ANOTHER 24 HOURS IN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.

THEREFORE, ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED, AND THE NHC

INTENSITY FORECAST LIES AT THE HIGH END OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT

TERM, IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE HCCA MODEL.  BEYOND 24 HOURS,

KENNETH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER WATERS COOLER THAN 26 DEG C AND

INTO A PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS.  THESE