WTPZ43 KNHC 200232 RRA

TCDEP3



TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER   7

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132017

800 PM PDT SAT AUG 19 2017



KENNETH IS VERY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH.  IT'S RATHER APPARENT THAT

THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR HAS RELAXED, WHICH, IN TURN, HAS RESULTED IN

MUCH LESS STRUCTURAL VERTICAL TILT AND A DEVELOPING INNER CORE

WITH -80C CLOUD TOPS.  THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHERN

PORTION OF KENNETH HAS RECENTLY BECOME QUITE DIFFLUENT AS WELL.

BASED ON THE RECENT IMPROVING CLOUD PATTERN TREND AND A BLEND OF THE

SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BUMPED

UP TO 60 KT.



KENNETH SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48

HOURS.  BEYOND THAT TIME PERIOD, DECREASING OCEANIC TEMPERATURES

AND A TRAJECTORY INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD RESULT IN

A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND.  THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY

SPIN DOWN OVER COOLER WATER OF LESS THAN 23C, AND BECOME A

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY DAY 5.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN

UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS WEIGHTED HEAVILY ON THE IVCN

MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.



THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE WESTWARD, OR 280/15 KT.

THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.

KENNETH SHOULD GRADUALLY ROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A

SUBTROPICAL HIGH EXTENDING WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA

DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND AFTERWARD, TURN NORTHWESTWARD

INTO A GROWING WEAKNESS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE.  TOWARD THE END

OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING INTO THE

BREAK IN THE RIDGE AND IN A MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD FASHION.  THERE

STILL REMAINS CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD AFTER DAY 3.  THE ECMWF,