WTPZ43 KNHC 192035 RRA

TCDEP3



TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER   6

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132017

200 PM PDT SAT AUG 19 2017



KENNETH IS ON A STRENGTHENING TREND.  THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE

TROPICAL STORM CONSISTS OF A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND CURVED OUTER

BANDS, MOSTLY ON THE SOUTH AND WEST PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION.  A

PARTIAL SSMI/S OVERPASS AROUND 1500 UTC SHOWS A MID-LEVEL EYE

FEATURE, BUT IT ALSO INDICATED THAT THE SYSTEM IS STILL VERTICALLY

TILTED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST, LIKELY THE RESULT OF

NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.  THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB/SAB

AND ADT VALUES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN ARE

UNANIMOUSLY 3.5/55 KT, AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO

THAT VALUE.



KENNETH IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KT ON THE SOUTH

SIDE OF A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A

TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS

WHILE THE STORM MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE

RIDGE.  THEREAFTER, AN EVEN SLOWER MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST

IS FORECAST AS KENNETH MOVES INTO A BREAK IN THE RIDGE CAUSED BY A

LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OFF OF THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  THE

TRACK MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST THIS CYCLE,

AND THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THOSE DIRECTIONS.



THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR KENNETH

TO KEEP STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO, AND THE SYSTEM

IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE AS EARLY AS TONIGHT.  AFTER

THAT TIME, SSTS FALL BELOW 26 DEG C ALONG THE EXPECTED PATH OF

KENNETH, AND THESE COOL WATERS COMBINED WITH A DRIER AIR MASS SHOULD