WTPZ43 KNHC 191446 RRA

TCDEP3



TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER   5

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132017

800 AM PDT SAT AUG 19 2017



A COUPLE OF RECENT MICROWAVE OVERPASSES HAS REVEALED THAT THE CENTER

OF KENNETH REMAINS NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP

CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED

OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION, IT IS

SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT DUE TO ABOUT 15

KT OF SHEAR AS DIAGNOSED BY A UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS. SUBJECTIVE

AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE AROUND 3.0 (45 KT) FROM THE

VARIOUS AGENCIES, BUT THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS CONSERVATIVELY

RAISED TO 40 KT, SINCE I WOULD RATHER WAIT TO SEE VISIBLE SATELLITE

IMAGES TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON KENNETH'S STRUCTURE.



KENNETH IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, 285 DEGREES, AT 14 KT.  THE

TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF A LOW-

TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA

PENINSULA.  KENNETH IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE

RIDGE IN ABOUT 48 HOURS, WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN

NORTHWESTWARD, THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD LATER IN THE PERIOD.  THE

TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS, BUT

DIVERGES AFTER THAT TIME.  THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS HAS SHIFTED A

LITTLE WESTWARD, BUT REMAINS ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE

ENVELOPE, WITH THE ECMWF ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE.  THE NEW NHC TRACK

FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED WESTWARD TO BE CLOSER TO THE VARIOUS

CONSENSUS AIDS THAT HAVE GENERALLY SHIFTED IN THAT DIRECTION THIS

CYCLE.



THE GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN OVER