WTPZ45 KNHC 222039 RRA

TCDEP5



TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102017

300 PM MDT SAT JUL 22 2017



SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION REMAINS

SHEARED, WITH THE COMPLEX CENTER ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE MAIN

CONVECTIVE MASS.  CIRRUS CLOUD BLOWOFF FROM THE BAND IN THE

NORTHWESTWARD QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE IS PRETTY CLEARLY MOVING

RIGHT INTO THE CENTER, CAUSING THE ASYMMETRIC APPEARANCE.

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED, SO THE INITIAL WIND

SPEED WILL STAY AT 30 KT.



THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS NOT IDEAL FOR STRENGTHENING WITH A

TROUGH LOCATED NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  MOST OF THE MODELS LIFT THE

TROUGH NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WHICH GENERALLY

CAUSES LIGHTER SHEAR.  HOWEVER, IN A FEW DAYS, INCREASING EASTERLY

SHEAR FROM THE OUTFLOW OF TD NINE-E IS EXPECTED TO ARREST THE

STRENGTHENING OF THE CYCLONE.  MODEL GUIDANCE, HOWEVER, IS RATHER

DIVERGENT, WITH THE STATISTICAL-BASED TOOLS SHOWING LITTLE

STRENGTHENING, WHILE THE REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS ALL TURN THE

DEPRESSION INTO A SIGNIFICANT HURRICANE IN A FEW DAYS.  GIVEN THAT

THIS FORECAST ALSO DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH NINE-E STRENGTHENS AND A

QUESTIONABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS LOOK

OVERDONE, SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL STAY ON THE CONSERVATIVE

SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE.



THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT ABOUT 6 KT.  A RIDGE

BETWEEN THE DEPRESSION AND TS GREG IS FORECAST TO STEER TEN-E TO THE

WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  GUIDANCE IS NOT

IN GREAT AGREEMENT, WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING VERY DIFFERENT