WTNT82 EGRR 291619



  MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC



             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 29.07.2017



        TROPICAL STORM HILARY     ANALYSED POSITION : 21.1N 121.0W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP092017



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 29.07.2017    0  21.1N 121.0W      994            43

    0000UTC 30.07.2017   12  22.9N 123.0W      998            42

    1200UTC 30.07.2017   24  24.4N 125.3W     1004            34

    0000UTC 31.07.2017   36  25.8N 127.5W     1009            28

    1200UTC 31.07.2017   48  27.1N 129.4W     1012            23

    0000UTC 01.08.2017   60              CEASED TRACKING



        TROPICAL STORM IRWIN      ANALYSED POSITION : 15.3N 124.8W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102017



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 29.07.2017    0  15.3N 124.8W      997            41

    0000UTC 30.07.2017   12  16.4N 125.2W      996            42

    1200UTC 30.07.2017   24  17.6N 126.1W      995            42

    0000UTC 31.07.2017   36  19.2N 127.3W      998            38

    1200UTC 31.07.2017   48  21.1N 128.5W     1003            31

    0000UTC 01.08.2017   60  22.8N 129.6W     1006            28

    1200UTC 01.08.2017   72  24.4N 130.5W     1008            26

    0000UTC 02.08.2017   84  26.0N 131.2W     1009            22

    1200UTC 02.08.2017   96  27.2N 132.0W     1011            19

    0000UTC 03.08.2017  108  27.9N 132.4W     1013            16

    1200UTC 03.08.2017  120  28.4N 132.6W     1016            13

    0000UTC 04.08.2017  132              CEASED TRACKING



       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  42 HOURS

              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 12.8N  33.3W



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 31.07.2017   48  13.0N  34.9W     1011            28

    0000UTC 01.08.2017   60  13.1N  38.8W     1011            30

    1200UTC 01.08.2017   72  12.5N  42.5W     1009            28

    0000UTC 02.08.2017   84  12.7N  45.4W     1009            28

    1200UTC 02.08.2017   96  13.1N  48.4W     1009            30

    0000UTC 03.08.2017  108  14.1N  51.4W     1008            29

    1200UTC 03.08.2017  120  15.7N  54.1W     1008            39

    0000UTC 04.08.2017  132  16.8N  56.3W     1004            46

    1200UTC 04.08.2017  144  18.0N  57.7W      997            54



       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  48 HOURS

              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 28.2N  85.7W



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 31.07.2017   48  28.2N  85.7W     1010            27

    0000UTC 01.08.2017   60  28.6N  86.0W     1011            26

    1200UTC 01.08.2017   72  28.8N  87.0W     1012            24

    0000UTC 02.08.2017   84  28.7N  86.8W     1011            20

    1200UTC 02.08.2017   96  29.0N  85.1W     1013            22

    0000UTC 03.08.2017  108  29.4N  83.3W     1014            21

    1200UTC 03.08.2017  120              CEASED TRACKING



       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS

              FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 32.4N  76.9W



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    0000UTC 03.08.2017  108  33.4N  74.2W     1013            27

    1200UTC 03.08.2017  120  34.5N  71.3W     1013            31

    0000UTC 04.08.2017  132  35.3N  67.3W     1012            27

    1200UTC 04.08.2017  144  36.1N  64.7W     1011            25





 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.



 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK



 TOO 291618