WTPZ41 KNHC 120235 RRA

TCDEP1



TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062017

900 PM MDT TUE JUL 11 2017



CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED WELL SOUTH

OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS

AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOWING A

WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE

CIRCULATION.  BASED ON THE IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION, THE SYSTEM

IS BEING CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED

IS SET TO 30 KT, WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES

OF 25 AND 35 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB, RESPECTIVELY.



THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY

SHEAR AND OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH THE GLOBAL

MODELS DO NOT SHOW SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING, THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE

(SHIPS AND LGEM) AND REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS (HWRF AND CTCX)

PREDICT STEADY STRENGTHENING, WITH THE REGIONAL MODELS MAKING THE

SYSTEM A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  GIVEN

THE LOW SHEAR AND WARM WATERS AHEAD, THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR

STEADY INTENSIFICATION AND LIES CLOSE TO HCCA CONSENSUS MODEL.



THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT.  A LARGE MID- TO

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST

TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THIS SHOULD KEEP THE

CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD HEADING THROUGHOUT THE FIVE-DAY

FORECAST PERIOD.  THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE STEERING

PATTERN AND THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE

GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS