WTPA41 PHFO 220911 RRA

TCDCP1



TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  42

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP062017

1100 PM HST FRI JUL 21 2017



THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF FERNANDA HAS DEGRADED SINCE THE

PREVIOUS ADVISORY, WITH CLOUD TOPS WARMING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE

EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE

DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME IN AT 25 AND 30 KNOTS FROM SAB AND

PHFO RESPECTIVELY, WITH THE ADT INTENSITY FROM UW-CIMSS COMING IN

AT 30 KNOTS AS WELL. HOWEVER, A LATE ARRIVING ASCAT PASS FROM

22/0640Z, INDICATED THAT A SMALL AREA OF 35 KNOT WINDS REMAIN

PRESENT TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC, AND THUS FERNANDA IS A

MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM. THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT THE SYSTEM HAS

INTENSIFIED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, BUT THAT THE STORM WAS

SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.



THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 285/7 KT, REPRESENTING A

SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SINCE THE PREVIOUS

ADVISORY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE NORTHERN OUTLIER SOLUTION,

WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION THE FARTHEST TO THE SOUTH. HOSTILE

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER FERNANDA OVER THE NEXT

COUPLE OF DAYS, KEEPING THE SYSTEM SHALLOW WITH THE TRACK MORE

INFLUENCED BY THE LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. AS A RESULT, THE

FORECAST TRACK FOR THIS ADVISORY WILL REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO THAT OF

THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, KEEPING IT TO THE SOUTH OF THE GFEX AND TVCN

CONSENSUS AIDS THAT ARE LIKELY TOO FAR NORTH DUE TO THE INFLUENCE

FROM THE OUTLIER GFS SOLUTION. A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE

WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH

SYSTEM DISSIPATION.