WTPZ45 KNHC 112034 RRA

TCDEP5



TROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052017

200 PM PDT TUE JUL 11 2017



THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH EUGENE IS RAPIDLY WANING.

WHILE THE DVORAK ASSESSMENTS FROM ADT, SAB, AND TAFB SUGGEST A

LOW-END TROPICAL STORM AT THIS TIME, AN AMSU PASS BACK AT 1417Z

GENERATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF AROUND 60 KT FROM CIRA AND CIMSS.

HOWEVER, IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THESE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE VALID BECAUSE

OF THE INCREASED STABILITY OVER THE STRATOCUMULUS-BLANKETED WATERS.

A BLEND OF THE DVORAK AND AMSU ESTIMATES GIVES 45 KT FOR THE

INITIAL INTENSITY.



THE DIMINISHED DEEP CONVECTION AND VISIBLE IMAGERY ALLOW FOR A MORE

ACCURATE DETERMINATION OF EUGENE'S INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION,

WHICH IS NORTHWESTWARD AT 8 KT.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO

CONTINUE MOVING IN THE SAME DIRECTION AND SPEED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE

OF DAYS, AS IT IS ROUNDING THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF A MID-LEVEL

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NEARLY UNCHANGED

AND IS BASED UPON THE HCCA CORRECTED CONSENSUS TECHNIQUE.



EUGENE SHOULD CONTINUE ITS WEAKENING DUE TO INGESTION OF STABLE AIR

AS IT MOVES OVER THE COOL WATERS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. IT IS

EXPECTED THAT THE CYCLONE WILL LOSE ITS DEEP CONVECTION AND BECOME

A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT A DAY - OR SOONER - AND DISSIPATE COMPLETELY

IN FOUR TO FIVE DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME

AS THAT PREVIOUSLY AND IS BASED UPON THE IVCN MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS

TECHNIQUE.



SWELLS GENERATED BY EUGENE WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NORTHWARD

ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO SOUTHERN