WTPZ45 KNHC 100236 RRA

TCDEP5



HURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052017

800 PM PDT SUN JUL 09 2017



AFTER STEADILY INTENSIFYING DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, THE

STRENGTHENING TREND OF EUGENE APPEARS TO HAVE ENDED.  THE

EYE OF THE HURRICANE HAS BECOME CLOUD-FILLED AND RAGGED, AND

THE CONVECTION IN THE EYEWALL IS NOT QUITE AS SYMMETRIC AS IT WAS

EARLIER TODAY.  IN ADDITION, RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT

THE EYEWALL HAS ERODED ON ITS EAST SIDE.  THE DVORAK CI-NUMBERS

ARE 5.0/90 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB AND THE LATEST UW-CIMSS SATELLITE

CONSENSUS ESTIMATE IS 92 KT.  BASED ON THESE VALUES, THE INITIAL

WIND SPEED OF EUGENE IS LOWERED TO 90 KT.



THE CURRENT WEAKENING OF EUGENE APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH SOME

DRY AIR THAT HAS WRAPPED INTO THE CIRCULATION, AS SEEN IN TOTAL

PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGES.  THE HURRICANE STILL HAS ABOUT

ANOTHER 12 HOURS OVER WARM WATER AND IN A LOW WIND SHEAR

ENVIRONMENT, SO LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

EUGENE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE 26 DEG C ISOTHERM ON MONDAY,

AND THEN MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS LATER IN THE WEEK.

THESE UNFAVORABLE OCEANIC CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH A DRIER

AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS SHOULD CAUSE STEADY, OR EVEN RAPID,

WEAKENING BEGINNING ON MONDAY.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE

MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT TERM, BUT THEN FALLS IN LINE WITH

THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND BRINGS EUGENE BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH IN

24 TO 36 HOURS.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY

72 HOURS WHEN IT IS FORECAST TO BE OVER WATER TEMPERATURES OF AROUND

20 C, WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE.