WTPZ45 KNHC 090842 RRA

TCDEP5



HURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052017

300 AM MDT SUN JUL 09 2017



ALTHOUGH IT HASN'T CLEARED OUT ENTIRELY, AN EYE HAS PERSISTED

IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY, AND CLOUD

TOPS COLDER THAN -70C HAVE AT TIMES COMPLETELY ENCIRCLED THE EYE.

SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE T4.5/77 KT AND

T5.0/90 KT, RESPECTIVELY, AT 0600 UTC, AND AN AVERAGE OF THESE

NUMBERS WAS MIRRORED BY AN OBJECTIVE ADT ESTIMATE OF T4.8/85 KT.

EUGENE'S RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE CONTINUES, AND THE HURRICANE IS

NOW ESTIMATED TO BE CATEGORY 2 WITH 85-KT WINDS.



EUGENE CONTINUES ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY WITH AN INITIAL

MOTION OF 325/7 KT.  MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN

ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES FOR A FEW MORE DAYS, WHILE

A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA.

THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP EUGENE ON A NORTHWESTWARD PATH FOR THE

ENTIRE FIVE-DAY FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A FASTER FORWARD SPEED

ANTICIPATED FROM 12-36 HOURS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY

CLUSTERED, ESPECIALLY THROUGH 72 HOURS, AND THE NHC OFFICIAL

FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED WESTWARD TOWARD THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS

MODELS.  BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE OFFICIAL FORECAST

FAVORS THE WEAKER, WESTWARD-LEANING GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.



EUGENE HAS BLOWN THROUGH ALL PRIOR INTENSITY GUIDANCE, SO IT'S A

LITTLE DIFFICULT TO KNOW HOW LONG THIS PERIOD OF RAPID

INTENSIFICATION WILL LAST.  THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN

A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND IT

WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE WATERS WARMER THAN 26C FOR ANOTHER 24-36