WTPZ45 KNHC 090236 RRA

TCDEP5



HURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052017

900 PM MDT SAT JUL 08 2017



EUGENE HAS STRENGTHENED RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST 24 H AND HAS REACHED

HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  RECENT MICROWAVE

IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A 25 N MI WIDE EYE HAS FORMED, AND THIS

FEATURE HAS ALSO APPEARED SPORADICALLY IN VISIBLE AND INFRARED

IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 70 KT BASED ON VARIOUS

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES IN THE 65-75 KT RANGE. THE HURRICANE

CONTINUES TO HAVE GOOD TO EXCELLENT CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS

AS IT REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.



SMOOTHING THROUGH THE WOBBLES OF THE FORMATIVE EYE, THE INITIAL

MOTION IS 320/7.  THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, AND

THE TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A

NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD,

WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE FIRST 24 H AND SOME

DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AFTER 72 H.  THE GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED

LITTLE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY, AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS

SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.



EUGENE SHOULD REMAIN OVER WARM WATER AND IN A LIGHT SHEAR

ENVIRONMENT FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 24 H.  THUS, ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING

IS EXPECTED, WITH THE MAIN QUESTION BEING WILL THE CURRENT RATE OF

INTENSIFICATION CONTINUE.  THE FORECAST PEAK INTENSITY IS INCREASED

TO 90 KT, WHICH IS ABOVE THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE BUT COULD BE

CONSERVATIVE IF THE INTENSIFICATION RATE DOES NOT DECREASE.  AFTER

24 HOURS, THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE OVER COLDER WATER, WITH THE SEA