WTPZ44 KNHC 262041 RRA

TCDEP4



HURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042017

300 PM MDT MON JUN 26 2017



SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, DORA'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOTICEABLY

ERODED, WITH CLOUD TOPS HAVING WARMED CONSIDERABLY AND THE EARLIER

EMBEDDED EYE FEATURE HAVING DEVOLVED INTO MORE OF A BANDING EYE

STRUCTURE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN A CONSENSUS T4.5/77

KT FROM TAFB AND SAB, AND NHC AUTOMATED DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES

HAVE BEEN STEADY AT 80-82 KT. THEREFORE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS

BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 80 KT.



THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS A STEADY 295/11 KT. THE GLOBAL

AND REGIONAL MODELS MAINTAIN THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF

DORA THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, KEEPING THE HURRICANE ON A

WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS, FOLLOWED BY A

TURN TOWARD THE WEST THEREAFTER UNTIL DISSIPATION OCCURS BY 120

HOURS. THE LATEST NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS MORE TIGHTLY PACKED AROUND

THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK NOW THAT THE ECMWF HAS SHIFTED FARTHER

TO THE NORTH. AS A RESULT, ONLY MINOR TWEAKS HAD TO MADE TO THE

FORECAST TRACK, WHICH LIES CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS TRACK MODEL TVCE.



DORA HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY, AND IS NOW STARTING TO FEEL THE

NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF COOLER WATER AND MORE STABLE AIR JUST TO ITS

NORTH. THE HURRICANE SHOULD MOVE OVER SUB-26 C SSTS WITHIN THE NEXT

6-12 HOURS, WHICH WILL INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING. HOWEVER, PROXIMITY

TO WARM, UNSTABLE AIR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF DORA'S TRACK, ALONG WITH

VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR AND OUTFLOW PATTERNS, SHOULD ACT TO TEMPER THE

WEAKENING RATE SOMEWHAT. DORA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM