WTPZ44 KNHC 260246 RRA

TCDEP4



TROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042017

1000 PM CDT SUN JUN 25 2017



DORA'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO QUICKLY IMPROVE THIS EVENING.

SEVERAL WELL-DEFINED SPIRAL BANDS WRAP AROUND THE CENTER AND THE

CDO HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC AND EXPANDED SINCE THE PREVIOUS

ADVISORY. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT AN EYE FEATURE HAS

FORMED WITHIN THE CDO. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM

TAFB AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM UW/CIMSS SUPPORTED AN INTENSITY

OF 55 KT AT 0000 UTC, BUT WITH THE CONTINUED IMPROVED STRUCTURE,

THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET TO 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

DORA IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER WARM WATER AND REMAIN WITHIN A LOW

SHEAR ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  THESE CONDITIONS

SHOULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION AND DORA IS LIKELY TO

BECOME A HURRICANE BY EARLY MONDAY.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS

FORECAST TO REACH COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT A DAY, WHICH SHOULD BEGIN

THE WEAKENING PROCESS.  A FASTER RATE OF SPIN DOWN IS EXPECTED BY

LATE TUESDAY AS DORA MOVES OVER EVEN COLDER WATERS AND INTO A MORE

STABLE ENVIRONMENT.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE

ABOVE THE ICON CONSENSUS THROUGH 36 HOURS, AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT

WITH THE LGEM GUIDANCE LATER IN THE PERIOD.



DORA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 300/12 KT. A STRONG MID-LEVEL

RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF DORA IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE TROPICAL

CYCLONE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  AFTER

THAT TIME, A WEAKER AND MORE SHALLOW DORA SHOULD TURN WESTWARD.  THE

UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND